Not looking good for France. More than 50% of cases in the ICU under 60 years old. Are we next? - Page 6

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Not looking good for France. More than 50% of cases in the ICU under 60 years old. Are we next? (Page 6 of 6)

Posted: 3/16/2020 6:58:30 PM EDT

[#1]

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My numbers aren't CFR because they do not include (because it hasn't happened yet) active cases.

I really do not know; even .5% produces scary numbers. And the key is to flatten bulge because even if it's .5% it might double due to overloading the health care system. But if you held a gun to my head I'd say 1% but S. Korea's response has been great, they have a good health care system and a fitter population so .7 or .8% might be the best we can do.

In terms of density of cases Switzerland and Norway are right behind Italy. I think watching what happens there will provide good info.

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The overall death rate on Coronavirus is probably going to parallel the percentage of the population over 80 since that seems to be the median age of death.

Posted: 3/16/2020 7:05:36 PM EDT

[#2]

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I'm not going to pin another person's beliefs on you, but I'm going to ask for thoughts on this:
South Korea has some ~8,000ish cases, (7,200 in just one province) are we to believe that 20% of those, some 1600 needed vents (which has been very heavily implied by some) - But they had all 1,600 vents resulting in an "artificially low" CFR?

I personally see the CFR range ending up between 1.0 and .35 when the studies are done later.
I do think South Korea has the most complete data period. 250,000 tests will do that. Having it amongst a whole population and not just a cruise ship trending 10 years older, also will do that.
In terms of what's happening with us in the US, while we do have a less fit population, we also have less population density.
(South Korean average, 1,302 people per square mile, to our 90 in the US.)

They had a travel ban from China's Hubei province (we had a travel ban)
They're cancelling large gatherings, concerts, schools, etc - as are we
We have the benefit of having time to even talk and think about this, because "orangeman" closed down the travel to China.
It's specifically why we are not in the same boat as Europe is, why we're going "last". We did turn off the faucet.

By no means do I think the next 6 weeks will be a "fun" time, with cheery headlines, and no one getting worried and no one getting sick?
But I do think the PROMISES of doom, "it's too late already", "CFR of 7%" by some of the doomsayers are absolute clownshoes.

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First off thank you for your polite and measured (and informative) reply. These are kind of rare on here.

I don’t have the data available to go back to ICU cases historically, sorry. I’d love to see that data.

I’m home getting paid to work from home so I have time. It’s going to be Netflix and occasionally looking at my phone or cpu.

I am not a medical professional but I am good with math.

Your CFR is ‘in general’ with what I think; .5 to 1% Yeah, the government restrictions are going to trash the economy but I think it is warranted and you don’t lose money until you sell. But that’s really not part of the discussion.

The stuff S Korea is doing to combat this is not achievable in this country. Between the differences in laws and technology they are well ahead of us on this specific front. So I don’t think we will achieve the metrics they have.

We have roughly a 20 day head start on them in terms of a density of cases so we likely have an advantage in terms of data. But we weren’t testing early because the CDC dropped the ball, so the numbers are likely worse.

I am OCONUS and expecting things to get sporty here soon,

Posted: 3/16/2020 7:06:41 PM EDT

[#3]

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France is 27% smokers to the US's ~15%
That's almost double

But it is a good point that America's got a bunch of overweight people.
I know a lot of the rhodes scholars from the 1,200 page thread get triggered when people talk differences in population densities, habits, health, etc to try to figure this puzzle out, so prepare for the hatemail for volunteering that guys

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As if Americans are healthy.

Many forget the average American is overweight, which would be considered an underlying condition.

Agreed.

Seems like it is also true that the average American has never spent any time in France when you hear people saying things like, "French people all smoke, sit around and drink wine all day, and they're all pussies".

France is 27% smokers to the US's ~15%
That's almost double

But it is a good point that America's got a bunch of overweight people.
I know a lot of the rhodes scholars from the 1,200 page thread get triggered when people talk differences in population densities, habits, health, etc to try to figure this puzzle out, so prepare for the hatemail for volunteering that guys

How many fatty scooters do the French supermarkets have like Walmart, and how many are used by ultra obese people when they shop?

Posted: 3/16/2020 7:14:01 PM EDT

[#4]

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Its gonna be bad news bears if we find out the fatality rates increases with obese population. Pretty much confirmed with smokers, and others with respiratory ailments.

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Studies seem to show it doesn't hit smokers as hard.

Posted: 3/16/2020 7:29:04 PM EDT

[#5]

OK so then how is Tom Hanks who is 65 and a type 2 diabetic not in the hospital on a breathing machine

Posted: 3/16/2020 7:39:32 PM EDT

[#6]

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How many fatty scooters do the French supermarkets have like Walmart, and how many are used by ultra obese people when they shop?

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Quote History

Quoted:

Quoted:
As if Americans are healthy.

Many forget the average American is overweight, which would be considered an underlying condition.

Agreed.

Seems like it is also true that the average American has never spent any time in France when you hear people saying things like, "French people all smoke, sit around and drink wine all day, and they're all pussies".

France is 27% smokers to the US's ~15%
That's almost double

But it is a good point that America's got a bunch of overweight people.
I know a lot of the rhodes scholars from the 1,200 page thread get triggered when people talk differences in population densities, habits, health, etc to try to figure this puzzle out, so prepare for the hatemail for volunteering that guys

How many fatty scooters do the French supermarkets have like Walmart, and how many are used by ultra obese people when they shop?

Not gunna lie that made me giggle

In the differences between the populations, that is one of the ones we'll have problems with

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Its gonna be bad news bears if we find out the fatality rates increases with obese population. Pretty much confirmed with smokers, and others with respiratory ailments.

Studies seem to show it doesn't hit smokers as hard.

That'll be up for debate for a while IMHO, on the side of it does, this guy circa March 11:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30117-X/fulltext

Studies on the biology of viral infection and clinical management of the disease have also been published, some of which have demonstrated that differences in COVID-19 disease prevalence and severity are associated with sex, and [color=#ff0000]smoking is related to higher expression of ACE2 (the receptor for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]), so that might also be a factor. One study (preprint),1 using single-cell sequencing, found that expression of ACE2 was more predominant in Asian men, which might be the reason for the higher prevalence of COVID-19 in this subgroup of patients than in women and patients of other ethnicities.[/color] One study of 140 patients with COVID-19 in China,2 found the sex distribution equal; whereas, in a study of critically ill patients,3 more men were affected (67%) than women. In a latest report4 of 1099 patients with COVID-19 from 552 hospitals in 30 provinces in China, 58% of the patients were men. Taken together, these data seem to indicate that there might be a sex predisposition to COVID-19, with men more prone to being affected.

This sex predisposition might be associated with the much higher smoking rate in men than in women in China (288 million men vs 12·6 million women were smokers in 2018).

Posted: 3/16/2020 10:40:01 PM EDT

[#7]

You know what’s interesting? The high death count area in the US is in pacific northwest where there isn't much sunshine. Wuhan is where the majority of deaths in China, also doesn't have much sunshine. Northern Italy also has not much sunshine.

Guys up your vitamin D3 doses.

Posted: 3/18/2020 1:58:03 AM EDT

[#8]

Buy a used tanning bed on Craigslist and hit it every day.

Posted: 3/18/2020 2:08:17 AM EDT

[#9]

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Probably because 95% of those filthy fuckers smoke

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Oui. C'est vrai.

Posted: 3/18/2020 2:10:55 AM EDT

[#10]

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OK so then how is Tom Hanks who is 65 and a type 2 diabetic not in the hospital on a breathing machine

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Bill Gates gave him a vaccine of the cure?

Posted: 3/19/2020 1:04:19 PM EDT

[#11]

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Probably because 95% of those filthy fuckers smoke

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When my to be wife went to Paris in the late.80s. She said everyone was smoking . She saw 10 to 11 year olds smoking. Even kids that looked younger at times.

Posted: 3/19/2020 1:34:25 PM EDT

[#12]

Mine told me they where smoking as soon as they popped out of the crotch.

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When my to be wife went to Paris in the late.80s. She said everyone was smoking . She saw 10 to 11 year olds smoking. Even kids that looked younger at times.

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