OFFICIAL Hurricane Florence Watch Thread - Page 32

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Posted: 9/11/2018 1:55:33 PM EST

[#1]

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Latest model - Stalls and sits off NC coast for a day then takes a hard left as it weakens.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm1XEkSU0AEhSbw.jpg

The ECMWF model will handle the stalling over water the best -- since it includes ocean mixing or cooling due to upwelling along the coast. That's the cooler green spot along the NC coast ...#Florence slowly weakens and then apparently takes a trip to South Carolina. \uD83E\uDD37??? pic.twitter.com/a2V3GP2nuu
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 11, 2018

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Is that better or worse than a Cat 4 slamming straight into the coast? There would be a wider area damaged but if the storm weakened there should be less severe damage. Or is it close enough that is just destroys the entire coast line?

Posted: 9/11/2018 1:56:55 PM EST

[#2]

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqwUBznxbz4

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I used to be ashamed to be related to him, but what the heck.
He's harmless and lovable.

Posted: 9/11/2018 1:57:46 PM EST

[#3]

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Looks like Carolinas are going to get hammered. Anyone know what Maryland is looking like? Heir gov declared a state of emergency already to prep but wondering just how hard it will get hit.

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Models are moving south faster than New York retirees at the first mention of snow. Maryland might get some rain and breezy weather if the latest forecasts hold true.

Posted: 9/11/2018 1:57:59 PM EST

[#4]

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My sister just set me this pic of the parking lot that is 74W. She thought the plate was appropriate.
https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/12678/runaway-668408.jpg

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I would love to see what's at the front of that line to see why everyone has stopped.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:00:16 PM EST

[#5]

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Quoted:

Is that better or worse than a Cat 4 slamming straight into the coast? There would be a wider area damaged but if the storm weakened there should be less severe damage. Or is it close enough that is just destroys the entire coast line?

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It will probably be a Cat3 when it gets to the coast. Sitting there for a full day would be catastrophic for the coast. (It would also keep pushing storm surge and waves on the north side of where it sits.)

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:00:16 PM EST

[#6]

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Quoted:

Is that better or worse than a Cat 4 slamming straight into the coast? There would be a wider area damaged but if the storm weakened there should be less severe damage. Or is it close enough that is just destroys the entire coast line?

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Better for inside, terrible for the coast. It will be leveled especially where it first hits and stalls. Also means tons of water dumped and storm surge/waves just pounding

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:00:17 PM EST

[#7]

So this southern shift means less surge for us in New Bern?

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:00:58 PM EST

[#8]

Quote History

Quoted:
Latest model - Stalls and sits off NC coast for a day then takes a hard left as it weakens.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm1XEkSU0AEhSbw.jpg

The ECMWF model will handle the stalling over water the best -- since it includes ocean mixing or cooling due to upwelling along the coast. That's the cooler green spot along the NC coast ...#Florence slowly weakens and then apparently takes a trip to South Carolina. \uD83E\uDD37??? pic.twitter.com/a2V3GP2nuu
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 11, 2018

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Posted: 9/11/2018 2:02:13 PM EST

[#9]

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Are newer vehicles able to have a siphon down their gas tube or is there some sort of anti-theft block in place. Most people have gas in unused cars but can't get it out. What is a good siphon to get gas out of vehicles?

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Just get under the car and take the hose off that goes from the cap to the tank.

Usually just need a screwdriver to get the hose clamp off.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:02:15 PM EST

[#10]

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Jeff Piotrowski?

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/

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Anyone remember who that guy was that did live feeds from the last two hurricanes? Any news from him, I thought the feeds and his play by play was really cool.

Jeff Piotrowski?

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1SqKF3unOg

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:02:39 PM EST

[#11]

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My sister just set me this pic of the parking lot that is 74W. She thought the plate was appropriate.
https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/12678/runaway-668408.jpg

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LOL....Well they are First In Flight afterall.

I just finished my "preps".

Started the generator....Works fine.

Filled three 5 gallon gas cans....25 gal total....Mixed 2.5 gals chainsaw gas.

Topped off the vehicles.....Which are another gas source if need be.

Refilled two propane canisters....Four total.

I'm not going anywhere but given how saturated the ground is and with 6" +/- of rain expected I suspect electrical power may be a issue. My water delivery was today so I have 60 gallons on-hand for drinking.

Hell the Shenandoah River is high already what with all the rain so I bet my river property will be flooded again big-time but a lot worse than this past Spring. I'm just worried my pavilion won't make it this time.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:04:15 PM EST

[#12]

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:06:59 PM EST

[#13]

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https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2Fimgur.com%2FUhmH2Mq.gif&key=-MHheX4aQOOSVwRShc01fg&w=800&h=552

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Looks like Georgia may get a good soaking out of that

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:09:43 PM EST

[#14]

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I think there's a significant possibility that Florence will move south and southwest after landfall, putting SC and GA under the gun for rainfall.

Some of the global forecasting models are hinting that the high pressure to the north and east of the storm will be stronger than expected, pushing Florence to the south.

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If it does that then we’re going to get absolutely fucked here.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:10:51 PM EST

[#15]

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Quoted:

My sister just set me this pic of the parking lot that is 74W. She thought the plate was appropriate.
https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/12678/runaway-668408.jpg

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If she is coming through Rockingham and needs anything, let me know.

@bigbore

220 is already getting crazy.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:13:49 PM EST

[#16]

Joe Bastardi predicts is actually going north after the landfall due to a non-tropical low pressure system developing right above Florence that will draw it in. I tend to believe him.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:16:34 PM EST

[#17]

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I would love to see what's at the front of that line to see why everyone has stopped.

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Quoted:

Quoted:

My sister just set me this pic of the parking lot that is 74W. She thought the plate was appropriate.
https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/12678/runaway-668408.jpg

I would love to see what's at the front of that line to see why everyone has stopped.

Probably some guy changing the tire on his sedan on the side of the road and everyone needs to slow down and watch him.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:16:38 PM EST

[#18]

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So this southern shift means less surge for us in New Bern?

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Sadly, based on this model I don't think so.
With it sitting there for a day, the strongest quadrant is probably going to be pushing a lot of water towards your house. Add 20-40" inches of rain on top of the surge and waves.
It's still 2 days out so a LOT can change.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:19:50 PM EST

[#19]

Is this the first time a hurricane hits a city with it's own name?

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:21:48 PM EST

[#20]

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Joe Bastardi predicts is actually going north after the landfall due to a non-tropical low pressure system developing right above Florence that will draw it in. I tend to believe him.

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Bastardi is a wizard.
On Sept. 2nd he predicted this hurricane hitting NC.
In July he said the Mid-Atlantic, not the Gulf Coast would be facing major hurricane threats this year.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:25:21 PM EST

[#21]

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Looks like Carolinas are going to get hammered. Anyone know what Maryland is looking like? Heir gov declared a state of emergency already to prep but wondering just how hard it will get hit.

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@mdguy90

Just passed a gas station near Bethesda with lines. All soccer moms driving large SUVs. So that panic has started here in MoCo for some reason LOL. The declaration was for the coastal areas due to most tributaries going to the Chesapeake are already flooded from this weeks rain. We don’t really expect much other than the same flooding similar to this summers rain we’ve already dealt with.

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White’s Ferry on the Potomac, and then the Monocacy bridge as of this morning.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:29:33 PM EST

[#22]

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1SqKF3unOg

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That video title is 100% misleading. He wasn't trapped. He's a storm chaser and parked there on purpose.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:32:17 PM EST

[#23]

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@mdguy90

Just passed a gas station near Bethesda with lines. All soccer moms driving large SUVs. So that panic has started here in MoCo for some reason LOL. The declaration was for the coastal areas due to most tributaries going to the Chesapeake are already flooded from this weeks rain. We don’t really expect much other than the same flooding similar to this summers rain we’ve already dealt with.

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/405668/3AB09562-4561-4E2E-BCAB-C514236EE31C-668466.JPG https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/405668/F7900678-A0DE-421C-8554-1157DB15D39F-668467.JPG

White’s Ferry on the Potomac, and then the Monocacy bridge as of this morning.

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Quoted:
Looks like Carolinas are going to get hammered. Anyone know what Maryland is looking like? Heir gov declared a state of emergency already to prep but wondering just how hard it will get hit.

@mdguy90

Just passed a gas station near Bethesda with lines. All soccer moms driving large SUVs. So that panic has started here in MoCo for some reason LOL. The declaration was for the coastal areas due to most tributaries going to the Chesapeake are already flooded from this weeks rain. We don’t really expect much other than the same flooding similar to this summers rain we’ve already dealt with.

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/405668/3AB09562-4561-4E2E-BCAB-C514236EE31C-668466.JPG https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/405668/F7900678-A0DE-421C-8554-1157DB15D39F-668467.JPG

White’s Ferry on the Potomac, and then the Monocacy bridge as of this morning.

Annapolis yesterday:

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:36:38 PM EST

[#24]

Big shift south and west in the models.

Attached File

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:38:02 PM EST

[#25]

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https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2Fimgur.com%2FUhmH2Mq.gif&key=-MHheX4aQOOSVwRShc01fg&w=800&h=552

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Oh, that's one mean storm to pull a head fake like that! There are some in SC & GA that'll get start shitting bricks in the next 8 hours if that model holds.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:39:35 PM EST

[#26]

Brock Long, FEMA Admin, just said areas hit should expect to be without power for weeks. (Which isn't a surprise but still sucks. A lot.)

He also warned of a lot of inland flooding from the rainfall - from SC to Delaware.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:40:10 PM EST

[#27]

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Most of VA will be fine. DC will be fine.

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Irma didn't hit Miami which is where they were saying it would hit up until 24 hours before landfall.

you have some ocd, don't you

My parents will be in DC when the hurricane makes landfall. They are old, from the rural midwest, and have no experience with hurricanes or evacuation traffic. Sorry that my concern about hurricane paths and their safety seems to trigger you.

Most of VA will be fine. DC will be fine.

Yeah, I'm sure we'll get some good storms... but no real danger for here in DC.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:41:10 PM EST

[#28]

There is nothing that I can add to this thread that hasn't been said already. Before you start thinking about fighting Mother Nature, just remember that she is undefeated.

Prayers out. Stay safe!

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:44:46 PM EST

[#29]

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There is nothing that I can add to this thread that hasn't been said already. Before you start thinking about fighting Mother Nature, just remember that she is undefeated.

Prayers out. Stay safe!

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Well said.

Be safe, things can be replaced, lives can not.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:49:54 PM EST

[#30]

Whelp, so far not looking good for York CO SC, lets hope it goes back out east.

I have lots of Pine Trees around my house, they go down, there goes the power.

Most people in my hood have trees that are close to the power lines.

I guess I better go get more gas. I have about 30 gallons but weeks of no power, 30 gallons wont last long.

I got beer and wine, I guess I best get some whisky

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:51:43 PM EST

[#31]

Main side Camp Lejeune here.

Was given the order of voluntary evacuation with a 500 mile special liberty until monday. I dont have my car so i have to shelter in place at my barracks. Given what people are posting here, i'm getting nervous about this.

My barracks says its a fallout shelter, think i would be ok?

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:52:26 PM EST

[#32]

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Whelp, so far not looking good for York CO SC, lets hope it goes back out east.

I have lots of Pine Trees around my house, they go down, there goes the power.

Most people in my hood have trees that are close to the power lines.

I guess I better go get more gas. I have about 30 gallons but weeks of no power, 30 gallons wont last long.

I got beer and wine, I guess I best get some whisky

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If you have lots of trees around your house a chainsaw, spare bar, chains, gas, bar oil and PPE are always a good idea as well.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:53:20 PM EST

[#33]

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Big shift south and west in the models.

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/680/flo_9_11_12z-668473.JPG

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/680/flo_9_11_18z-668474.JPG

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You need to mow your lawn.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:53:46 PM EST

[#34]

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Big shift south and west in the models.

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/680/flo_9_11_12z-668473.JPG

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/680/flo_9_11_18z-668474.JPG

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Most of those are coming right over me. I’m 90 miles inland and on a hill so the structure will be fine, but damn it’s going to do some damage.

People in Lumberton need to GTFO. Matthew absolutely drowned them, and this looks to be far worse.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:54:57 PM EST

[#35]

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Main side Camp Lejeune here.

Was given the order of voluntary evacuation with a 500 mile special liberty until monday. I dont have my car so i have to shelter in place at my barracks. Given what people are posting here, i'm getting nervous about this.

My barracks says its a fallout shelter, think i would be ok?

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Elevation above sea level?

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:55:57 PM EST

[#36]

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Heads up TX and LA

NEW in the 2 pm EDT outlook: A tropical depression is likely to form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. #AL95 https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/b3ou2cqy5e
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 11, 2018

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Oh yeah, been watching that really closely.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:57:05 PM EST

[#37]

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Main side Camp Lejeune here.

Was given the order of voluntary evacuation with a 500 mile special liberty until monday. I dont have my car so i have to shelter in place at my barracks. Given what people are posting here, i'm getting nervous about this.

My barracks says its a fallout shelter, think i would be ok?

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I had the opportunity to sit through 160mph in a Marine Corps barracks. I may have survived.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:58:26 PM EST

[#38]

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You need to mow your lawn.

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Quoted:
Big shift south and west in the models.

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/680/flo_9_11_12z-668473.JPG

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/680/flo_9_11_18z-668474.JPG

You need to mow your lawn.

I mowed the project house last night...now that it stopped raining. The latest shift in the hurricane path has it coming right over us, meaning more rain yet again! I am sick and tired of rain this year...but I will take the rain over a Cat 4 hitting us.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:58:48 PM EST

[#39]

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Main side Camp Lejeune here.

Was given the order of voluntary evacuation with a 500 mile special liberty until monday. I dont have my car so i have to shelter in place at my barracks. Given what people are posting here, i'm getting nervous about this.

My barracks says its a fallout shelter, think i would be ok?

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Isnt there anyone you can catch a ride with?

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:59:07 PM EST

[#40]

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Elevation above sea level?

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Quoted:
Main side Camp Lejeune here.

Was given the order of voluntary evacuation with a 500 mile special liberty until monday. I dont have my car so i have to shelter in place at my barracks. Given what people are posting here, i'm getting nervous about this.

My barracks says its a fallout shelter, think i would be ok?

Elevation above sea level?

Much is 5'-30' MSL.

Posted: 9/11/2018 2:59:16 PM EST

[#41]

No propane tanks or bottled water. Panic shopping in food stores.

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:01:01 PM EST

[#42]

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Yeah, I'm sure we'll get some good storms... but no real danger for here in DC.

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The fact that its already been raining for a week in Northern VA is not going to help. Folks docks are already under water on the Potomac River without the hurricane surge.

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:03:54 PM EST

[#43]

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Just get under the car and take the hose off that goes from the cap to the tank.

Usually just need a screwdriver to get the hose clamp off.

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This worked for us after Katrina

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:04:59 PM EST

[#44]

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Those graphics are grossly irresponsible, in my opinion. That kind of shit causes people in no real danger to panic, which makes thing far more difficult for the people that really do need to batten down and bug out. Right now, Roanoke has a 5% chance of flash floods, is forecast for 6-10" of rain, and has no chance of seeing hurricane force winds.

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What out-of-towners don't realize, is that Roanoke is in a valley....a "bowl", with mountains all around it.

Our worst flood in history, the flood of 1985, happened with only 6.5" of rain in a day.
And to top it off, it has been raining heavy here since Saturday...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.roanoke.com/weather/columns_and_blogs/columns/weather_journal/weather-journal-flood-of-slowly-flows-from-memory-to-history/article_59aec97a-0a1f-544b-a4e4-f24a2e97149c.amp.html

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:06:29 PM EST

[#45]

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I used to be ashamed to be related to him, but what the heck.
He's harmless and lovable.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqwUBznxbz4

I used to be ashamed to be related to him, but what the heck.
He's harmless and lovable.

Can we send him a Boltface logo shirt to wear in his next video?

Maybe just an FUAROCK mixed in.

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:06:55 PM EST

[#46]

For someone that may be affected by this storm that lives 4 miles from the coast as the crow flies, 2 to 3 miles from the SC/NC border on the SC side, what windows should they board up today or tomorrow, if any? North, South, East, West? All of them? None?

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:08:07 PM EST

[#47]

So it really looks like they really don't know which direction it is going to take.

I guess there will be more swings in direction in the next 24 hours.

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:10:11 PM EST

[#48]

Heading to Raleigh tomorrow to get ready for restoration.

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:10:48 PM EST

[#49]

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For someone that may be affected by this storm that lives 4 miles from the coast as the crow flies, 2 to 3 miles from the SC/NC border on the SC side, what windows should they board up today or tomorrow, if any? North, South, East, West? All of them? None?

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Asking for a friend?

Posted: 9/11/2018 3:13:27 PM EST

[#50]

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Much is 5'-30' MSL.

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Quoted:
Main side Camp Lejeune here.

Was given the order of voluntary evacuation with a 500 mile special liberty until monday. I dont have my car so i have to shelter in place at my barracks. Given what people are posting here, i'm getting nervous about this.

My barracks says its a fallout shelter, think i would be ok?

Elevation above sea level?

Much is 5'-30' MSL.