User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:32:16 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Man! All you guys posting maps and saying your house is where the dot is are blowing your Arf-Persec. You’re makin’ it too easy for the Antifas and the Dems to find you! 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:36:44 PM EST
[#2]
Even with new forecast They are calling for hurricane force winds how to 100 miles inland. We are 89 miles give or take inland from wilmington. We are losing hope for our family's beach house 45 minutes West from wilmington.
Its made it through every one since 1993 including storm of the century, Fran, Floyd etc. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:37:11 PM EST
[#3]
Emerald Isle pier cam.
http://www.eilivesurf.com/livecams.asp |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:38:31 PM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Here's a live cam to add to your list, its a cam on a favorite pier/bar of mine in Nags Head called FishHeads... https://www.fishheadsobx.com/pier-cam.html |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:40:03 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you need any help when it does hit or if your hood gets shitty, let me know! |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:42:27 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Put in bookmarks. Hope it stays up. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Here's a live cam to add to your list, its a cam on a favorite pier/bar of mine in Nags Head called FishHeads... https://www.fishheadsobx.com/pier-cam.html |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:45:56 PM EST
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Makes it easier for the Mermaids to find them if they stay. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Man! All you guys posting maps and saying your house is where the dot is are blowing your Arf-Persec. You're makin' it too easy for the Antifas and the Dems to find you!
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:49:16 PM EST
[#8]
Wife knows some enabled dildos up there. NC.
She called them to see if they were coming down here. They din't know a fucking thing about wat's going on outside of their little world. God may have watched over them since the track changed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- And she called an 86 year old lady. NC also. She never turns on the TV and had no clue. Wife told her to order an extra bottle of vodka and some water. Her daughter from Fl. hadn't called her. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:54:34 PM EST
[#9]
Newest models. Still a 24-hour period of very little movement of the storm, somewhere around landfall.
The N/NE area of that will see a ton of rain due to the stall, but also because its general track keep the same area in that part of the storm. Lots of rain in the circled area.  Attached File |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 2:59:53 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@96Ag Maybe. It's the part of the fuel rail that looks like where you put air in a bicycle tire. The tool to pull the core is available pretty much anywhere bicycle inner tubes are sold.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:13:12 PM EST
[#11]
A little bit of good news......
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:21:52 PM EST
[#12]
where did the navy ships go? would they head towards the hurricane or try to avoid it at sea?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:25:04 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
where did the navy ships go? would they head towards the hurricane or try to avoid it at sea? I can see several warships and govt cargo ships off the east coast of FL on marinetraffic.com |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:26:23 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
where did the navy ships go? would they head towards the hurricane or try to avoid it at sea? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:28:43 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That's not a house, just the building at the entrance to the ex-Rodanthe pier. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: That orange house will be a pile of driftwood about 4 hours in |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:30:53 PM EST
[#16]
Broad view of expected storm surge.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:42:53 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The cap on a bottle of tire slime has a stem remover built in. Just don't slime your fuel rail! |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:44:29 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
A little bit of good news...... https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm6salsWsAA2A_e.jpg Still no updated track yet. Not really sure on the process, but wonder if it'll be able to complete the ERC and strengthen or if we're on a downward slope from here. Hopefully it's the latter. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:49:35 PM EST
[#19]
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:49:49 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That is good. 5PM numbers are out from the NHC and it appears pressure has risen slightly and winds have dropped (minimally, but any drop is good). Still no updated track yet. Agreed, any weakening is good weakening. (It was supposed to go back up to Cat4 before dropping to Cat3 when it got to the coast. Hopefully it will drop to a Cat2.) Regardless, storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats from this bitch. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:54:52 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don't think the track will change much over the next 24 hours. Agreed, any weakening is good weakening. (It was supposed to go back up to Cat4 before dropping to Cat3 when it got to the coast. Hopefully it will drop to a Cat2.) Regardless, storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats from this bitch. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 3:55:10 PM EST
[#22]
When will it get sporty Along the coast? Tomorrow afternoon, evening?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:03:39 PM EST
[#23]
Quote History
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:08:09 PM EST
[#24]
Some new models:
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:11:43 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm upstate SC, should be wet and wild
https://media.tenor.com/images/b415c995d92805bbb113145c193efca3/tenor.gif 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:14:16 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
But the lower the cat, the lower the surge so that’s something The reason surge will be so bad is because: 1. It's such a big storm that's coming from the open ocean 2. It's hitting at almost a 90 degree angle 3. It will sit there for a day just constantly pushing more water onto shore as it dumps a few feet of rain. I keep watching for some type of good news to report to you. Any idea how high your house is? (From sea level.) Also, how far from the water is it? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:14:43 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don't think the track will change much over the next 24 hours. Agreed, any weakening is good weakening. (It was supposed to go back up to Cat4 before dropping to Cat3 when it got to the coast. Hopefully it will drop to a Cat2.) Regardless, storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats from this bitch. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:16:24 PM EST
[#28]
Looks like 100 of my colleagues are on standby to fly in. I'm not on the list, but that may change abruptly.
That dwell time on the shoreline looks nasty. Coastline will get more rain than a typical flyby, but it could reduce upstream/upriver rainfall totals. Like any path, better for some than others, but everyone will feel it. My firm has given me no formal data to work with. I only got to peak at some projected figures not for public consumption. I wasn't even supposed to see them.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:16:31 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryFrom 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday the 'Cane is going to wobble south west, parallel to the shoreline, only 50 miles? If so, that is going to be a long and punishing day for folks on the NC/SC coast. God Damn 'Canes. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:18:18 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryStay safe. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:20:27 PM EST
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's not looking like a 15 - 25 mph reduction in wind speed will reduce surge that much. The reason surge will be so bad is because: 1. It's such a big storm that's coming from the open ocean 2. It's hitting at almost a 90 degree angle 3. It will sit there for a day just constantly pushing more water onto shore as it dumps a few feet of rain. I keep watching for some type of good news to report to you. Any idea how high your house is? (From sea level.) Also, how far from the water is it? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:20:46 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Good Lord. From 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday the 'Cane is going to wobble south west, parallel to the shoreline, only 50 miles? If so, that is going to be a long and punishing day for folks on the NC/SC coast. God Damn 'Canes. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Good Lord. From 2pm Friday to 2pm Saturday the 'Cane is going to wobble south west, parallel to the shoreline, only 50 miles? If so, that is going to be a long and punishing day for folks on the NC/SC coast. God Damn 'Canes. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:26:05 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
But the lower the cat, the lower the surge so that’s something Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I don't think the track will change much over the next 24 hours. Agreed, any weakening is good weakening. (It was supposed to go back up to Cat4 before dropping to Cat3 when it got to the coast. Hopefully it will drop to a Cat2.) Regardless, storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats from this bitch. satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an increase the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is still expanding except toward the south. 5pm Noaa forecast discussion |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:27:24 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I don't think the track will change much over the next 24 hours. Agreed, any weakening is good weakening. (It was supposed to go back up to Cat4 before dropping to Cat3 when it got to the coast. Hopefully it will drop to a Cat2.) Regardless, storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats from this bitch. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: That is good. 5PM numbers are out from the NHC and it appears pressure has risen slightly and winds have dropped (minimally, but any drop is good). Still no updated track yet. Agreed, any weakening is good weakening. (It was supposed to go back up to Cat4 before dropping to Cat3 when it got to the coast. Hopefully it will drop to a Cat2.) Regardless, storm surge and rain are still the biggest threats from this bitch. Intensity predictions have never been reliable. Storm surge predictions are even worse. As much as weathermen like to babble about what causes storm surge, it remains poorly understood. Generally, once a hurricane starts to weaken, they don't strengthen. A chance to get lucky is shaping up where Florence does most of her southerly scraping of the coast as a cat 1 and dumps most of her water on coastal areas that are better able to handle the kinds of rainfall totals we're looking at. A lot of cat 1 is probably better than a little bit of cat 4. Florence could very well move inland as a depression. Florence's destructive wind field is not that big: 70 miles from the center for hurricane force winds. Katrina was 120 miles at landfall, for comparison. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:39:33 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
On a lake that is attached to a canal that is attached to a river that runs into the sound. When Irmabwas directly overhead, only the crawl space got wet. If it goes over land and/or the heaviest rain stays just south of New Bern that would make a significant difference in how much flooding occurs at your house. Either are a possibility.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:43:32 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryChick walking in a thong ATM. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:43:46 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You can bank on the track. The models are all tight. Track guidance 72 hours and in is reliable Yesterday.  Attached FileToday  Attached File |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:45:21 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Even if the surge isn't significant, if there's a ton of rain the surge will likely prevent the rain from getting to the river and then going into the ocean. If it goes over land and/or the heaviest rain stays just south of New Bern that would make a significant difference in how much flooding occurs at your house. Either are a possibility.
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
On a lake that is attached to a canal that is attached to a river that runs into the sound. When Irmabwas directly overhead, only the crawl space got wet. If it goes over land and/or the heaviest rain stays just south of New Bern that would make a significant difference in how much flooding occurs at your house. Either are a possibility.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:46:50 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Chick walking in a thong ATM. Quote HistoryQuoted:
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 4:53:27 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Depends on what your definition of tight and reliable are. Would you be talking within 15 miles of the predicted path or 150 miles? The people 100 miles away that think they are just getting strong wind and rain but then get the eyewall over their property might have a different opinion on what tight is. Irma's path changed about 150 miles in the last 24 hours. Florence is almost missing the entire state that it was predicted to go through just 24 hours ago. I would not consider shifting at least half a state as "tight". The generalized path of somewhere in NC and SC has remained consistent. Yesterday. Would you prefer they just say: "The models don't agree, we'll let you know where it's going when it gets there?" |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:03:47 PM EST
[#41]
I have gotten my info on this from ARFCOM. It is superior to what the media
has and is putting out. It is downright embarrassing what is on the media. They have gotten to the point that they are saying what is obvious to the slowest dullard and in a tone like speaking to a 3 year old. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:07:34 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Just saw a report on TV. There are many crews from Florida moving north to stage to help the people in the Carolinas. Rescue, LE, power, aid etc. Returning the favor for the help that the people of NC and SC provided last year for Irma. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:09:27 PM EST
[#43]
Just received this email from Brewers Cycles in Henderson
In case anyone is still looking. Brewer Cycles will be receiving 1 last shipment of Yamaha Generators first thing Thursday morning! That shipment will include EF2000iSV2, EF2600, EF5500, and EF7200's. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:17:39 PM EST
[#44]
Anyone have a guess on what us folks south of Charlotte can expect? I work at the airport and they are saying its business as usual, I have an elderly mom here in SC just across the line, it keeps changing paths. Just wondering what the hive thoughts are .
thanks |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:23:10 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I will. I need to get more links for other areas. This link is for Bald Head Island. If the storm surge and path are correct there will be nothing left of it after Florence passes through. https://www.baldheadisland.com/island/ferry-cam Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Here is a list of cameras that I started compiling. Some of the links have dozens of cameras from various places along the coast. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd https://www.myrtlebeach.com/webcams/ https://www.seacrestmyrtlebeachresort.com/webcam/ https://www.visitmyrtlebeach.com/web-cam/ https://www.socoastal.com/best-live-myrtle-beach-webcams/ http://www.bar-harbor.com/web-cam.html https://www.beachcamsusa.com/cities/myrtle-beach http://www.webcamsinmyrtlebeach.com/ This link is for Bald Head Island. If the storm surge and path are correct there will be nothing left of it after Florence passes through. https://www.baldheadisland.com/island/ferry-cam  Attached File |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:23:37 PM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
People used to have wall barometers they kept a pretty close eye on during hurricane season and they used flags as warnings too. They still didn't have nearly the warning we get today. 
(not mine. just saved for posterity) |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:24:47 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Even with new forecast They are calling for hurricane force winds how to 100 miles inland. We are 89 miles give or take inland from wilmington. We are losing hope for our family's beach house 45 minutes West from wilmington.
Its made it through every one since 1993 including storm of the century, Fran, Floyd etc. @Bandhunter |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:24:48 PM EST
[#48]
SurfChex is a system of cameras along the coast. I don’t know how long they will be up, but here is a link to the one closest to my house:
Surfchex Carolina Beach |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:33:17 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone have a guess on what us folks south of Charlotte can expect? I work at the airport and they are saying its business as usual, I have an elderly mom here in SC just across the line, it keeps changing paths. Just wondering what the hive thoughts are . thanks If it stays off shore and/or goes further south, those numbers should go down. If it turns in sooner, expect double (or more) rainfall and higher winds. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/12/2018 5:36:49 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
As of right now, the models are showing 40-50 mph winds on Friday and then 4-6 inches of rain over the weekend. If it stays off shore and/or goes further south, those numbers should go down. If it turns in sooner, expect double (or more) rainfall and higher winds. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Anyone have a guess on what us folks south of Charlotte can expect? I work at the airport and they are saying its business as usual, I have an elderly mom here in SC just across the line, it keeps changing paths. Just wondering what the hive thoughts are . thanks If it stays off shore and/or goes further south, those numbers should go down. If it turns in sooner, expect double (or more) rainfall and higher winds. |
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
