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Posted: 9/1/2017 4:26:15 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I lived in Mobile then. Good times.  Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Reminds me of George https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1998_charts/at199807.gif |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 4:28:33 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thanks. Now I have Bubba's list of shrimp dishes going through my head. Shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thanks. Now I have Bubba's list of shrimp dishes going through my head. Shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo... 
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Posted: 9/1/2017 4:32:42 PM EDT
[#3]
If you are in the potential path, panic now and avoid the rush.
Almost 25 years ago I was drunk for a week, kept hearing locals talking about some guy named "Andrew". I learned hurricanes the hard way. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 4:48:05 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Reminds me of George https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1998_charts/at199807.gif It seems to be about two weeks out so give it time. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 5:17:38 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thanks. Now I have Bubba's list of shrimp dishes going through my head. Shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo...
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Posted: 9/1/2017 5:24:26 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I lived in Mobile then. Good times. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Reminds me of George https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1998_charts/at199807.gif 
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Posted: 9/1/2017 8:00:17 PM EDT
[#7]
Looks like it's turning North. Should avoid the Gulf. Now, the east coast...
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Posted: 9/1/2017 8:07:13 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Looks like it's turning North. Should avoid the Gulf. Now, the east coast... |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 8:09:56 PM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 9/1/2017 8:19:28 PM EDT
[#10]
Last GEFS run.
This shows all of the ensemble members for the run. When it goes all funky and splits apart at the end, that is the ensemble members diverging from each other (the storm itself isn't shattering). Each little red number is a center of low pressure as represented by one of the ensembles. Seems to be a split between Florida and Carolinas, not much going out to sea. You can see what could be a second tropical system following behind. 
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Posted: 9/1/2017 8:52:58 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Last GEFS run. This shows all of the ensemble members for the run. When it goes all funky and splits apart at the end, that is the ensemble members diverging from each other (the storm itself isn't shattering). Each little red number is a center of low pressure as represented by one of the ensembles. Seems to be a split between Florida and Carolinas, not much going out to sea. You can see what could be a second tropical system following behind. http://i.imgur.com/nmuKih1.gif |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 9:32:26 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
According to most of the long range Models (GFS, Euro) their is an area of high pressure that should keep this from going out to sea. It is possible that it will suppress the storm and keep it more to the south or inland. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Last GEFS run. This shows all of the ensemble members for the run. When it goes all funky and splits apart at the end, that is the ensemble members diverging from each other (the storm itself isn't shattering). Each little red number is a center of low pressure as represented by one of the ensembles. Seems to be a split between Florida and Carolinas, not much going out to sea. You can see what could be a second tropical system following behind. http://i.imgur.com/nmuKih1.gif |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 9:34:13 PM EDT
[#13]
I'm in the "much a do about nothing" camp
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Posted: 9/1/2017 9:35:56 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Last GEFS run. This shows all of the ensemble members for the run. When it goes all funky and splits apart at the end, that is the ensemble members diverging from each other (the storm itself isn't shattering). Each little red number is a center of low pressure as represented by one of the ensembles. Seems to be a split between Florida and Carolinas, not much going out to sea. You can see what could be a second tropical system following behind. http://i.imgur.com/nmuKih1.gif The gift that keeps on giving.  
Really praying this one takes a turn North and just stays out at sea. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 9:38:53 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm in the "much a do about nothing" camp |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:08:38 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Last GEFS run. This shows all of the ensemble members for the run. When it goes all funky and splits apart at the end, that is the ensemble members diverging from each other (the storm itself isn't shattering). Each little red number is a center of low pressure as represented by one of the ensembles. Seems to be a split between Florida and Carolinas, not much going out to sea. You can see what could be a second tropical system following behind. http://i.imgur.com/nmuKih1.gif --ETA: Fixed name, and also am impressed at how fast we see results. We only saw NOLA from mostly the MSM, this is different, Much Different, than the 2004 season where we were told very little. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:14:28 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm in the "much a do about nothing" camp |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:29:11 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Dunno. ICW is on the other side from me. Last week ST.John's looked normal. But it don't take much. To raise it if south of us gets hammered. It rained super hard here almost all night last night. Easily 2-4 inches kinda hard. Problem is how saturated it all is. But both sides of SR40 east of 17 have standing water. Those same areas almost crested 40 during 04/05' canes. Already told my supervisor...if it does I won't be in lol . Quote HistoryQuoted:
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6-7 days of no power after Charlie...then 4 more..then 3 more.. Lost our ass.... Enough so that last years cane ...wife and I sat outside during the whole thing. We wished it was at night..like Charlie... Go to bed..wake up...deal with it. Vs Crash...bang....wtf was that...crack...pow..yup...neighbors are fucked in broad day light. I hate canes....but it's just part of it. Sad part is all the rain we get every fucking day....there's already standing water in most places. Last week ST.John's looked normal. But it don't take much. To raise it if south of us gets hammered. It rained super hard here almost all night last night. Easily 2-4 inches kinda hard. Problem is how saturated it all is. But both sides of SR40 east of 17 have standing water. Those same areas almost crested 40 during 04/05' canes. Already told my supervisor...if it does I won't be in lol . 
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:29:43 PM EDT
[#19]
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I've got the feeling the storm doesn't much care what "camp" you're in. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:31:34 PM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:33:53 PM EDT
[#21]
18z Sept 01 2017 GFS...
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:43:28 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
18z Sept 01 2017 GFS... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:46:04 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not funny.
Updated that post with wind graphic. There have been a couple of GFS runs now over the last few days that show a strike in the NY, CT, NJ area from Irma.
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:49:09 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The chance of this one going to NY are low.  
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Posted: 9/1/2017 10:50:33 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No its not.
Updated that post with wind graphic. There have been a couple of GFS runs now over the last few days that show a strike in the NY, CT, NJ area from Irma. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Not funny.
Updated that post with wind graphic. There have been a couple of GFS runs now over the last few days that show a strike in the NY, CT, NJ area from Irma. You're safe. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:06:49 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:07:41 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
GFS model? You're safe. |
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:13:14 PM EDT
[#28]
New models agree, it is going somewhere between Galveston and Greenland
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:21:51 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Certainly would not want to be sleeping in a "camp" when this strikes! 
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Posted: 9/1/2017 11:59:22 PM EDT
[#30]
Week Away Gut Feeling: Irma is far enough north now that the trough crossing the US next week grabs on to her early and pushes her out to sea - no US landfall.
Irma goes fishing. |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:00:44 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Week Away Gut Feeling: Irma is far enough north now that the trough crossing the US next week grabs on to her early and pushes her out to sea - no US landfall. Irma goes fishing. |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 12:08:56 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Week Away Gut Feeling: Irma is far enough north now that the trough crossing the US next week grabs on to her early and pushes her out to sea - no US landfall. Irma goes fishing. |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 6:39:23 AM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 9/2/2017 6:51:40 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
GFS model? You're safe. The 6z GFS run for Sept 2: 
The ECMWF ensemble: 
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Posted: 9/2/2017 7:07:47 AM EDT
[#35]
Last night's Euro model dick punched South Carolina
The midnight and 6am GFS runs are the scariest so far, storm surge would be a disaster and a lot of wind onshore to places that aren't built for it 
not sure I believe the onshore winds in the last one, it has winds penetrating into the interior more than I would expect |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 7:55:40 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I live at the headwaters of the St. John in NE Okeechobee county. Everything that falls here will go North eventually. Our ponds, canals and drainage ditches have been full for weeks and the ground is saturated. We have had standing water in our yards for weeks. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Stjohnsriver_detailmap.png Everyone was praying for rain because of the brush fires breaking out..well.. we've got it and still getting it! |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 8:09:58 AM EDT
[#37]
Tag
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Posted: 9/2/2017 8:31:24 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Most areas of North Central Florida is saturated... we've pretty much gotten rain everyday since late May... With a few days here and their with no rain. Not your typical rain for 20 minute summer time storms.. Everyone was praying for rain because of the brush fires breaking out..well.. we've got it and still getting it! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I live at the headwaters of the St. John in NE Okeechobee county. Everything that falls here will go North eventually. Our ponds, canals and drainage ditches have been full for weeks and the ground is saturated. We have had standing water in our yards for weeks. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Stjohnsriver_detailmap.png Everyone was praying for rain because of the brush fires breaking out..well.. we've got it and still getting it! Then in the years to follow few hurricanes and with less rain/storms. Now there's more storms and more hurricanes, Makes you wonder if there is a connection? Do the same conditions that make a "good" hurricane season also make lots of rain and thunder storms during the spring and summer for Florida? |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 8:41:51 AM EDT
[#39]
Just moved to Orlando from AZ...what's with all this rain?
Actually flying to Germany tomorrow..so, have fun
Eerily looks like Andrew
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Posted: 9/2/2017 9:06:38 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The end of that projection has it crossing a "Herbert Box" for a FL hit, but that's 5 days out. We won't have a solid idea of where landfall might be until probably Tuesday, to see if it curves up or stays south. 
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Posted: 9/2/2017 9:13:57 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Last night's Euro model dick punched South Carolina http://i.imgur.com/pnLbUJr.png The midnight and 6am GFS runs are the scariest so far, storm surge would be a disaster and a lot of wind onshore to places that aren't built for it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090200/gfs_pres_wind_watl_35.png https://i.imgur.com/r4db6Tu.png not sure I believe the onshore winds in the last one, it has winds penetrating into the interior more than I would expect |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 9:26:28 AM EDT
[#42]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/passantino/status/903651441792999425/photo/1[/tweet]
Warning from the National Weather Service about fake Irma news. More info here |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 9:45:50 AM EDT
[#43]
in MD, near the bay
getting shit together today just in case this is a mid-atlantic event. |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 9:48:52 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/passantino/status/903651441792999425/photo/1[/tweet] Warning from the National Weather Service about fake Irma news. More info here
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Posted: 9/2/2017 9:49:23 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryWhere's the fun in that?
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Posted: 9/2/2017 10:06:22 AM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 9/2/2017 11:06:54 AM EDT
[#47]
A lot of the sites out there use models and such to predict where systems are going to go, but, except for certain conditions, after the 5 day probabiliies, most models fall apart and diverge widely.
that said, it may appear that in 7 days (because this is a forcast also from the nws) there may be some highs that move towards the east, that may sort of start blocking a westward motion of the hurricane, and create a trough of low pressure that might mean it misses the carolinas and the east coast completely |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 2:57:01 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I live at the headwaters of the St. John in NE Okeechobee county. Everything that falls here will go North eventually. Our ponds, canals and drainage ditches have been full for weeks and the ground is saturated. We have had standing water in our yards for weeks. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Stjohnsriver_detailmap.png |
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Posted: 9/2/2017 4:35:44 PM EDT
[#49]
Sept 2 Tropical tidbit video: https://youtu.be/ocnoepCHK1I
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Posted: 9/2/2017 5:16:47 PM EDT
[#50]
The newer 'disturbance 1' is disconcerting as hell. It appears that it will track into the gulf.
Irma may put the hurt on the east coast, but if the Gulf Coast of Texas and/or Louisiana takes another hit like 'Depression 1' could do...things will get mega-ugly for the entire nation. 
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