User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:26:42 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The newer 'disturbance 1' is disconcerting as hell. It appears that it will track into the gulf. Irma may put the hurt on the east coast, but if the Gulf Coast of Texas and/or Louisiana takes another hit like 'Depression 1' could do...things will get mega-ugly for the entire nation. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:28:07 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wtf kind of name is Irma? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:28:43 PM EDT
[#3]
I'm gonna predict Irma doing a Cat 4 hit on Cape Lookout and MAS Cherry Point, then riding up the coast to NYC.
Looks like it might be pretty apocalyptic....especially if TX/LA gets hit again by the other storm. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:28:53 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What the fuck is going on with the coast of Africa that's producing all these violent hurricanes, lately? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:29:53 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What the fuck is going on with the coast of Africa that's producing all these violent hurricanes, lately? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:33:50 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What the fuck is going on with the coast of Africa that's producing all these violent hurricanes, lately? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
The newer 'disturbance 1' is disconcerting as hell. It appears that it will track into the gulf. Irma may put the hurt on the east coast, but if the Gulf Coast of Texas and/or Louisiana takes another hit like 'Depression 1' could do...things will get mega-ugly for the entire nation. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png Global Warming is happening because the sun is producing less sun spots. Thus we are in a warming cycle. Sun has less sun spots equals more heat. More heat equals more hurricanes. Welcome to nature. It extended beyond our atmosphere. The idea that mankind caused this is laughable. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:33:54 PM EDT
[#7]
Quoted: |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:37:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Weather and Solar Minimum. Global Warming is happening because the sun is producing less sun spots. Thus we are in a warming cycle. Sun has less sun spots equals more heat. More heat equals more hurricanes. Welcome to nature. It extended beyond our atmosphere. The idea that mankind caused this is laughable. Now, my question is, can we take another hit like Harvey, let alone two more? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:38:27 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What the fuck is going on with the coast of Africa that's producing all these violent hurricanes, lately? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 5:48:59 PM EDT
[#10]
As I say this in jest because I'd hate too see the folks surrounding suffer, but a CAT 5 hit on D.C. would be strangely satisfying.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 6:06:04 PM EDT
[#11]
After the 5pm update, hopefully it keeps turning east.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 6:43:35 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I vote Igor Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Wtf kind of name is Irma? 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 6:45:37 PM EDT
[#13]
and snook just opened.....
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 6:58:15 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
After the 5pm update, hopefully it keeps turning east. At its current size, the system will be steered less by the high pressure ridge and more by the westerlies. Where it goes after the ridge moves further east will depend directly on its size. Smaller system = Florida/Georgia/SC hit. Bigger system = more deflection/curvature = DelMarVa/NYC hit. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:01:01 PM EDT
[#15]
Latest GFS puts it right up the Chesapeake as a bruiser of a cat 4 or 5
Noon Euro run was similar but slowed it enough that it recurved out to sea right before impacting the Carolinas |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:02:51 PM EDT
[#16]
Ah Ha, now we know where it's going
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:04:32 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryThat map is scary because very few have it going out to sea, and all of the models have this thing strengthening to be an absolute bruiser.
If you are on the atlantic coast, you need to be watching |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:04:39 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryComing to say high to new york city, we will have to see if liberals tweets about a hurricane hitting Texas come back to haunt them.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:06:33 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Coming to say high to new york city, we will have to see if liberals tweets about a hurricane hitting Texas come back to haunt them. Quote HistoryQuoted:
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:07:39 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It won't. At its current size, the system will be steered less by the high pressure ridge and more by the westerlies. Where it goes after the ridge moves further east will depend directly on its size. Smaller system = Florida/Georgia/SC hit. Bigger system = more deflection/curvature = DelMarVa/NYC hit. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
After the 5pm update, hopefully it keeps turning east. At its current size, the system will be steered less by the high pressure ridge and more by the westerlies. Where it goes after the ridge moves further east will depend directly on its size. Smaller system = Florida/Georgia/SC hit. Bigger system = more deflection/curvature = DelMarVa/NYC hit. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:08:38 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Texans werent too kind about Sandy either. eta: for me it was more about the coverage than the storm. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:12:23 PM EDT
[#22]
Is there a time frame for landfall?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 7:15:34 PM EDT
[#23]
that's about the 20 billion dollar question
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:09:21 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
As I say this in jest because I'd hate too see the folks surrounding suffer, but a CAT 5 hit on D.C. would be strangely satisfying. Quote HistoryQuoted:
As I say this in jest because I'd hate too see the folks surrounding suffer, but a CAT 5 hit on D.C. would be strangely satisfying. Quoted:
Igor was in 2010 and retired since it was a Cat4 that destroyed some of Canada. Next name up for 2017 is Jose. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:13:49 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What the fuck is going on with the coast of Africa that's producing all these violent hurricanes, lately? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:23:08 PM EDT
[#26]
I like the historical paths better
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:27:44 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Latest GFS puts it right up the Chesapeake as a bruiser of a cat 4 or 5 https://i.imgur.com/fEdotGe.png https://s26.postimg.org/irv54xik9/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_36.png Noon Euro run was similar but slowed it enough that it recurved out to sea right before impacting the Carolinas |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:35:44 PM EDT
[#28]
It is still early to assign high confidence in these projections.
However, if you are on the US eastern seaboard, you might dust off your hurricane protection and evacuation plans...or start working on them |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:37:46 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I like the historical paths better https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_climo.gif |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 8:45:38 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Isn't it more south than any of these? |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:12:10 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fuck I hope not. I'm practically on the ocean in VA Beach. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:29:59 PM EDT
[#32]
That one really looks bad. Hope it stays out to sea.
<-- SE NC native |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:31:38 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Howdy neighbor. I'm a city inland of you, but after the flash flooding after Matthew last year scared the shit out of me I'm keeping a close eye on this. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:33:17 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fuck I hope not. I'm practically on the ocean in VA Beach. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:34:34 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Howdy neighbor. I'm a city inland of you, but after the flash flooding after Matthew last year scared the shit out of me I'm keeping a close eye on this. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Fuck I hope not. I'm practically on the ocean in VA Beach. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:36:54 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If this thing comes our way, you getting out of Vabeach quick is going to be a bitch.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/2/2017 9:38:02 PM EDT
[#37]
Right Now, NOBODY can say where it will land.
We'll need to wait until Tuesday update when the 5 day cone paints the US. You should still prepare nonetheless. Fill up on gas and spare cans, get all your shopping done, get a pallet of water, waders, chainsaw, axe, pry bar, etc. Even if you won't need it for Irma, you may need it later. That advice sucks for people that live paycheck to mouth, but it's all I've got. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 12:31:50 AM EDT
[#38]
I was driving back from Richmond when the not a hurricane hurricane Mathew ran over the area. Almost lost control on I-64 when I hit a huge pond near the construction at Ft. Eustis since it was dark. Rooster tails probably 30ft. in the air. Guy behind me didn't have reflexes quite as fast and plowed into the guard rail. Next day we drove down to the south part of Chesapeake. There's a Target the wife likes to go to there. We get off the exit get down to the bottom of the ramp and realize the Target parking lot is under 6 inches of water and is closed. Fine, we just start driving toward getting back on the freeway. Problem was, the farther we got from the ramp, the deeper the water was getting. It got to the point where my Jeep started gurgling. It finally dawned on me that was the tailpipe under water. We ended up driving over the median and going in reverse back to the freeway. We saw what looked like a new Jeep Grand Cherokee with water up to the windows in the intersection. That was a good indicator that we really didn't want to go that way.
We also saw a Maserati abandoned in the water in the Greenbrier area. Why the fool was out in the water with an expensive car is unknown. His foolishness cost him a bundle. There was a lineup of cars on Greenbrier parkway that had stalled out just rolling down the road towards the mall. Jeep got thru fine. Reinforced the good decision on getting it. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 12:36:39 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fuck I hope not. I'm practically on the ocean in VA Beach. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 12:37:48 AM EDT
[#40]
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 4:42:40 AM EDT
[#41]
Ost
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 5:04:03 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
After the 5pm update, hopefully it keeps turning east. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 5:04:45 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Latest GFS puts it right up the Chesapeake as a bruiser of a cat 4 or 5 https://i.imgur.com/fEdotGe.png https://s26.postimg.org/irv54xik9/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_36.png Noon Euro run was similar but slowed it enough that it recurved out to sea right before impacting the Carolinas 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 5:07:23 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fuck I hope not. I'm practically on the ocean in VA Beach. A Cat 4 would be the end of Sandbridge and put a hurting on the entire Hampton Roads area. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 5:32:17 AM EDT
[#45]
And there's another system to watch right behind it. NHC calling a 70% chance of formation within five days
 Attached File |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 6:35:18 AM EDT
[#46]
Midnight Euro run is back to predicting landfall, this run has it crushing NC and following through into VA
6am GFS run in close agreement 
We are still a long way out but when models start zeroing in on a consensus like this, it's pretty alarming |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 7:03:22 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Besides being September? Probably all the slavery happening over there. In reality, probably a slight shift in the gulf stream or a similar Atlantic current |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 8:59:58 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Midnight Euro run is back to predicting landfall, this run has it crushing NC and following through into VA https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.png http://i.imgur.com/vVeIlmZ.png 6am GFS run in close agreement https://i.imgur.com/4J0JCtM.jpg We are still a long way out but when models start zeroing in on a consensus like this, it's pretty alarming |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 9:03:16 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yep, now it's time to start planning to GTFO of the Carolina coast. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Midnight Euro run is back to predicting landfall, this run has it crushing NC and following through into VA https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.png http://i.imgur.com/vVeIlmZ.png 6am GFS run in close agreement https://i.imgur.com/4J0JCtM.jpg We are still a long way out but when models start zeroing in on a consensus like this, it's pretty alarming This will be bad. |
|
|
|
Posted: 9/3/2017 9:09:36 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No its not.
Updated that post with wind graphic. There have been a couple of GFS runs now over the last few days that show a strike in the NY, CT, NJ area from Irma.  Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Not funny.
Updated that post with wind graphic. There have been a couple of GFS runs now over the last few days that show a strike in the NY, CT, NJ area from Irma. Fuck it, Im buying a boat.
|
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
