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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:18:05 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Midnight Euro run is back to predicting landfall, this run has it crushing NC and following through into VA https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_10.png http://i.imgur.com/vVeIlmZ.png 6am GFS run in close agreement https://i.imgur.com/4J0JCtM.jpg We are still a long way out but when models start zeroing in on a consensus like this, it's pretty alarming |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:25:28 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fuck I hope not. I'm practically on the ocean in VA Beach. Evacuate early; those hurricane evacuation route signs are incredibly hopefull and optimistic. On that Irma map, 2 of the tracks cross right over my house. 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:26:27 AM EDT
[#3]
As of now, looks like nc/va/md/pa will be shat on. I will suggest getting some preps if in these states. Basics for now if possible along with any needed meds, you can always rotate into regular supplies ect.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:27:16 AM EDT
[#4]
Dang two in a row it looks like.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:27:37 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fuck! Fuck it, Im buying a boat.   Attached FileHow it actually works out.  Attached FileSorry in advance about your guns. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:28:29 AM EDT
[#6]
@RTUtah
Pepper your Angus. 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:35:46 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That would be a girl's name. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Wtf kind of name is Irma? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:40:34 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What the fuck is going on with the coast of Africa that's producing all these violent hurricanes, lately? 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:45:17 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Climate Change |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:50:27 AM EDT
[#10]
Model plots, very few take this out to sea. Most models aren't long range enough to project landfall from the present but do appear to follow the same pattern.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:02:45 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Model plots, very few take this out to sea. Most models aren't long range enough to project landfall from the present but do appear to follow the same pattern. https://i.imgur.com/7xqMmwf.jpg The good news is that with the cold front we have it may be pushed north/west or knock it down a notch or two. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:18:38 AM EDT
[#12]
When's it projected to make landfall?
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:20:44 AM EDT
[#13]
I'm hoping people outside of this thread are paying attention to this and looking into preparing before all of this is confirmed.
Though I'm not that confident. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:25:56 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm hoping people outside of this thread are paying attention to this and looking into preparing before all of this is confirmed. Though I'm not that confident. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:29:32 AM EDT
[#15]
Don't know if we'll get it this far inland, but I'm feeling like it'll be a NC hit. At least I don't have to worry about flooding at my house, biggest concern is wind.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:40:40 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I was driving back from Richmond when the not a hurricane hurricane Mathew ran over the area. Almost lost control on I-64 when I hit a huge pond near the construction at Ft. Eustis since it was dark. Rooster tails probably 30ft. in the air. Guy behind me didn't have reflexes quite as fast and plowed into the guard rail. Next day we drove down to the south part of Chesapeake. There's a Target the wife likes to go to there. We get off the exit get down to the bottom of the ramp and realize the Target parking lot is under 6 inches of water and is closed. Fine, we just start driving toward getting back on the freeway. Problem was, the farther we got from the ramp, the deeper the water was getting. It got to the point where my Jeep started gurgling. It finally dawned on me that was the tailpipe under water. We ended up driving over the median and going in reverse back to the freeway. We saw what looked like a new Jeep Grand Cherokee with water up to the windows in the intersection. That was a good indicator that we really didn't want to go that way.
We also saw a Maserati abandoned in the water in the Greenbrier area. Why the fool was out in the water with an expensive car is unknown. His foolishness cost him a bundle. There was a lineup of cars on Greenbrier parkway that had stalled out just rolling down the road towards the mall. Jeep got thru fine. Reinforced the good decision on getting it.  In a matter of about 90 minutes the water levels went from "water standing on the side of the road" to "water is 1/2 way up the yard to your house". Scared the shit out of me how fast it came up. The storm wasn't bad at all and didn't rain any harder than a Nor'Easter, TS or Cat 1 - stuff we deal with here ALL THE TIME. The ground had just been saturated for weeks prior due to other storms, and the area just couldn't handle it. So, I am watching IRMA like a hawk and hoping that we don't get any more rain between now and then. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:45:38 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Model plots, very few take this out to sea. Most models aren't long range enough to project landfall from the present but do appear to follow the same pattern. https://i.imgur.com/7xqMmwf.jpg 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:49:24 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I hate that purple track. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:50:07 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Monday or Tues will be more accurate, I firmly believe that it's going to damage inland about like a cat 1 would as far as west Pa. The good news is that with the cold front we have it may be pushed north/west or knock it down a notch or two. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:57:21 AM EDT
[#20]
Who was they guy that predicted Sandy? I want to hear his opinion.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 10:59:38 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When's it projected to make landfall? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:18:55 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's too early to tell if it will affect CONUS or the Bahamas. Or anything else. The older I get, the more these things bother me. It isn't so much the storm as the months and years of disruption that follow. We just reopened some roads from the "1000 Year Flood." That was two years ago. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:27:59 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
@RTUtah Pepper your Angus. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:34:44 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That Maserati was on one of the side streets (Eden Way?) off of Greenbrier wasn't it? That area was still pretty flooded, and some of the side streets were still closed, when I went to work Monday. Most of the cars actually on Greenbrier had been moved by that point, but not all. Getting in and out of my neighborhood (Kempsville and Greenbrier) was interesting - having to figure out which streets were navigable. In a matter of about 90 minutes the water levels went from "water standing on the side of the road" to "water is 1/2 way up the yard to your house". Scared the shit out of me how fast it came up. The storm wasn't bad at all and didn't rain any harder than a Nor'Easter, TS or Cat 1 - stuff we deal with here ALL THE TIME. The ground had just been saturated for weeks prior due to other storms, and the area just couldn't handle it. So, I am watching IRMA like a hawk and hoping that we don't get any more rain between now and then. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I was driving back from Richmond when the not a hurricane hurricane Mathew ran over the area. Almost lost control on I-64 when I hit a huge pond near the construction at Ft. Eustis since it was dark. Rooster tails probably 30ft. in the air. Guy behind me didn't have reflexes quite as fast and plowed into the guard rail. Next day we drove down to the south part of Chesapeake. There's a Target the wife likes to go to there. We get off the exit get down to the bottom of the ramp and realize the Target parking lot is under 6 inches of water and is closed. Fine, we just start driving toward getting back on the freeway. Problem was, the farther we got from the ramp, the deeper the water was getting. It got to the point where my Jeep started gurgling. It finally dawned on me that was the tailpipe under water. We ended up driving over the median and going in reverse back to the freeway. We saw what looked like a new Jeep Grand Cherokee with water up to the windows in the intersection. That was a good indicator that we really didn't want to go that way.
We also saw a Maserati abandoned in the water in the Greenbrier area. Why the fool was out in the water with an expensive car is unknown. His foolishness cost him a bundle. There was a lineup of cars on Greenbrier parkway that had stalled out just rolling down the road towards the mall. Jeep got thru fine. Reinforced the good decision on getting it. In a matter of about 90 minutes the water levels went from "water standing on the side of the road" to "water is 1/2 way up the yard to your house". Scared the shit out of me how fast it came up. The storm wasn't bad at all and didn't rain any harder than a Nor'Easter, TS or Cat 1 - stuff we deal with here ALL THE TIME. The ground had just been saturated for weeks prior due to other storms, and the area just couldn't handle it. So, I am watching IRMA like a hawk and hoping that we don't get any more rain between now and then. I'm not going to panic but if it looks like a Cat 4 or 5 is going to hit here, we're bugging out. If not, we're probably gonna be OK. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:35:55 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Bro, I'll be in Montana and Colorado, completely off the grid. This is gonna fucking SUCK either way. @USPcompact Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
@RTUtah Pepper your Angus. I'm out there the end of this month, and then again in mid-October. WB is gonna get fucked. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:38:08 AM EDT
[#26]
Sandy sucked.......hard. I don't want to do that again
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:42:34 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's too early to tell if it will affect CONUS or the Bahamas. Or anything else. If it continues on that course there's little chance it won't affect the east coast at some point. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:46:05 AM EDT
[#28]
i'm pretty sure i'm... no, wait, i AM fucking tired of fucking hurricanes
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:46:59 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Who was they guy that predicted Sandy? I want to hear his opinion. Here is his take on the storm Sept 02 2017 video.  THIS WEEK IN WEATHER -- HURRICANE IRMA |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:50:48 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When's it projected to make landfall? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 11:51:27 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Luckily, that storm hit on a weekend. If it had hit during the work week, a lot of people might have been stranded at where they work. I met a guy in the Reno airport that was a Navy dude here. He'd gotten his house flooded. He'd asked a friend of his to get him out but the guy couldn't get there even with a jacked up truck. I'm not going to panic but if it looks like a Cat 4 or 5 is going to hit here, we're bugging out. If not, we're probably gonna be OK. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:01:15 PM EDT
[#32]
That's a Cat 5 Hurricane into NC if this holds true.
Remember though that yesterday it had it impacting Chesapeake Bay area. So, the model runs are still all over the place. One thing that's been happening though is they are tracking more and more West. Saffir-Simpson Category Wind SpeedPressure (mb)Storm surge (ft) 1 74-95 > 980 3-5 2 96-110979-965 6-8 3 111-130 964-945 9-12 4 131-155944-920 13-18 5 156+< 920 19+ 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:15:50 PM EDT
[#33]
I'm in the FL Panhandle.... Gonna do a test run of the gennie today.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:19:27 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And there's another system to watch right behind it. NHC calling a 70% chance of formation within five days https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/310516/IMG_7170-297827.JPG |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:26:25 PM EDT
[#35]
Most recent run of the GFS.
If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. 
Making landfall just South of previous model run. 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:35:31 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:38:28 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Beat me to the punch. Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:40:11 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:41:50 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Well the don't call them Himacanes Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
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Wtf kind of name is Irma? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:47:48 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Like moving to Montana. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Beat me to the punch. Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:50:17 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Beat me to the punch. Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png Scary as hell. If you are in the Carolinas, might want to start some preparations
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:51:30 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No kidding. That track would take it over my house. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I hate that purple track. I really don't want a hurricane to obliterate it.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:55:20 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Right Now, NOBODY can say where it will land. We'll need to wait until Tuesday update when the 5 day cone paints the US. You should still prepare nonetheless. Fill up on gas and spare cans, get all your shopping done, get a pallet of water, waders, chainsaw, axe, pry bar, etc. Even if you won't need it for Irma, you may need it later. That advice sucks for people that live paycheck to mouth, but it's all I've got. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 12:57:03 PM EDT
[#44]
We had the same situation last year, same time, it was gonna kill is all, then never even hit the US.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:02:34 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wtf kind of name is Irma? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:02:53 PM EDT
[#46]
This storm is going to tear up something on the East Coast. The only question is where.
Right now it doesn't look like Florida is going to be hit too bad but if I lived on the coast in the Carolinas I would be starting to make some serious preparations. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:05:57 PM EDT
[#47]
So, this should make landfall on 911? Thuper.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:07:04 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We had the same situation last year, same time, it was gonna kill is all, then never even hit the US. Which storm and what track did it take? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:15:02 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Most recent run of the GFS. If this holds true Irma will match Hurricane Wilma as the lowest pressure ever recorded by a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At 882 mb Wilma had wind speeds of 185 mph. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_31.png Making landfall just South of previous model run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 1:20:27 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Same here. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
In for whered this one goes |
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