User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:09:29 AM EDT
[#1]
Retail stuff with high turnover things work through the sytem to show up fairly quickly. Wait till all this inflation hits that's been working through the system for 2+ years before someone (citizen or government) pays for it.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:11:49 AM EDT
[#2]
I'm happy to hear that you were smart and saved your overtime pay.
How many of your co workers instead spent it on new trucks, toys, or other stuff? |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:13:55 AM EDT
[#3]
I'm ordering a new front door today.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:14:24 AM EDT
[#4]
Rates for freight have been dropping also. Started in April and fuel has shot up. Looks like the Obummer years all over again.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:15:29 AM EDT
[#5]
Our retail order hit a wall last week for the entire week. 50% of the sales from mo the before.
It’s picked back up this week but still 75% down. I think the market dip scared buyers as our site traffic has only been off about 10%. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:16:01 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm happy to hear that you were smart and saved your overtime pay. How many of your co workers instead spent it on new trucks, toys, or other stuff? Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff." 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:16:20 AM EDT
[#7]
It needs to happen and it is not happening as quick as I want it too..People have way, way too much money and are spending it like they are mad and there is no tomorrow.. Inflation will soar unless people stop the foolish spending..
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:20:22 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff." Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm happy to hear that you were smart and saved your overtime pay. How many of your co workers instead spent it on new trucks, toys, or other stuff? Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff." Should’ve invested in a stable coin. I hear those are doing well! |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:21:18 AM EDT
[#9]
Don't know about y'all, but, I've been very busy for the last 3 years killing off any and every debt that I had, topping off the larder and in generally distancing myself from bad habits...
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:22:44 AM EDT
[#10]
Anderson Windows suck. It's just your company. The rest of the country is fine. Economy is great. Ignore actual orders.
*All the above is sarcasm.  I think the building season will be strong. Lots of pent up demand, money borrowed already and material ordered. However, there will be a hard crash at some point. I've told people to hold off on projects that don't absolutely have to be done now. Prices will drop. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:24:09 AM EDT
[#11]
Do you work for Pella OP?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:25:42 AM EDT
[#12]
I think a recession isn’t identified until 2 quarters of shrink has occurred. We’re already 1/3 of the way there.
In essence, we’re in recession right now. It just hasn’t been identified as such. Just like covid is endemic (and has been), even though it doesn’t meet the definition criteria yet. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:26:02 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don't know about y'all, but, I've been very busy for the last 3 years killing off any and every debt that I had, topping off the larder and in generally distancing myself from bad habits... We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house.  Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:27:10 AM EDT
[#14]
Yeah but do you guys actually have any frickin' windows???
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:28:47 AM EDT
[#15]
Had our 2Q meeting yesterday at work and they went over the financials, commercial and residential construction #’s are still looking good. We might be heading into a recession based on negative GDP, but it’s not a 2008 crash, yet. I’ve no doubt it’s coming eventually though.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:28:59 AM EDT
[#16]
People are still spending on Ag chemicals like crazy. We've been increasing prices on Treflan weekly, and still sell everything we have.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:29:20 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you work for Pella OP? There's a Pella plant north of me, one of their shift managers works out in the same gym I do. For a while they had big supply issues like everything else. Couldn't work because they didn't have aluminum. Ill have to check with him next time I see him, see if they've got the same problems as OP. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:29:40 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It needs to happen and it is not happening as quick as I want it too..People have way, way too much money and are spending it like they are mad and there is no tomorrow.. Inflation will soar unless people stop the foolish spending.. The government needed to stop printing and spending. The government. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:30:04 AM EDT
[#19]
Inflation isn't caused by people foolishly
spending.. Certainly when you print trillions of dollars with no backing and without any possibility of paying that "borrowed" currency back and hand it out, there will be lots of spending. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:30:15 AM EDT
[#20]
Consumer confidence has to be breaking all time low levels with the Biden inflation and Biden stock markets.
We wouldn't know because our government would lie and alter the data and the media wouldn't report the real numbers if they got out. They have to keep focus on what's important - gender pronouns and destroying white Euro-centric Jewish/Christian culture. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:30:31 AM EDT
[#21]
You mean depression?
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:32:42 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It needs to happen and it is not happening as quick as I want it too..People have way, way too much money and are spending it like they are mad and there is no tomorrow.. Inflation will soar unless people stop the foolish spending.. Oh my goodness.  Wow. Hopefully sarcasm. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:33:28 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.Should be a hard "no" from you. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:35:08 AM EDT
[#24]
 <- My shocked face...
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:36:18 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff." Yeah, I wish I bought a few 3/4 or 1 ton trucks 18 months ago. who would have imagined new cars would be a money making investment! |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:38:15 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:Don't know about y'all, but, I've been very busy for the last 3 years killing off any and every debt that I had, topping off the larder and in generally distancing myself from bad habits... Getting control of your life means getting control of your spending and your slavery to the credit card banks. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:40:25 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Anderson Windows suck. It's just your company. The rest of the country is fine. Economy is great. Ignore actual orders. *All the above is sarcasm. I think the building season will be strong. Lots of pent up demand, money borrowed already and material ordered. However, there will be a hard crash at some point. I've told people to hold off on projects that don't absolutely have to be done now. Prices will drop. That is about my thought. When a sheet of plywood was 30 something is now $100 it is going to contract the demand for building. when the demand slows and the supply builds up, prices will drop. The question is will things return slowly or will it come with retraction layoffs, some facility closures that cannot go to near idle with out going under. I would love to build an enclosed porch on the back of my place but it is absolutely not worth it to me at current prices. I retired with a mortgage as I was uprooting for most of my career. Likely to move within 5 years anyhow. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:41:38 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Consumer confidence has to be breaking all time low levels with the Biden inflation and Biden stock markets. We wouldn't know because our government would lie and alter the data and the media wouldn't report the real numbers if they got out. They have to keep focus on what's important - gender pronouns and destroying white Euro-centric Jewish/Christian culture. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:44:49 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Don't know about y'all, but, I've been very busy for the last 3 years killing off any and every debt that I had, topping off the larder and in generally distancing myself from bad habits... We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.way safer I think to keep shopping existing houses. No way would I want to get caught with my pants down in the middle of a build and have material prices go up another 100%. Contractors being independents aren’t that resistant to raising their labor pricing. They have all the work they can juggle and more. I got hit with some fees that me contractor didn’t used to charge for, blue prints that he copied from my originals and modified to get a new engineer stamp on, a quote fee to come out and talk and work up the job scope plan. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:45:03 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Rates for freight have been dropping also. Started in April and fuel has shot up. Looks like the Obummer years all over again. Biden makes Obama look competent. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:46:18 AM EDT
[#31]
When a bag of pork rinds costs $8.00 you stop buying them.
Not because you dont have the money but because it is just stupid for a bag of fried pork skins |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:49:18 AM EDT
[#32]
Yeah, it’s certainly coming and the margins on home building right now are stressed. Land prices, materials prices/ availability, labor, etc is all wacked. There will be/ has to be a correction.
That said - if you work for Andersen - the drop could very well be due to your ridiculous lead times and people moving on to something obtainable
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:50:57 AM EDT
[#33]
$5 gas and $6 diesel is already starting to slow things down. Honorable mention to food prices.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:51:24 AM EDT
[#34]
So it's a good time for me to replace windows? I got some quotes last years, and decided to wait.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:51:32 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Rates for freight have been dropping also. Started in April and fuel has shot up. Looks like the Obummer years all over again. With the inflation and price of gas, it's looking more like the Carter years. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:52:46 AM EDT
[#36]
Quoted: I work for a major window and door company. We have been swamped working insane overtime for the last few years. Our orders have just dropped dramatically each day starting on Monday this week. In our industry this happens fast saw it in 2008. Here it comes...I’ve been saving my overtime money in preparation so I’m as ready as I can be. Same here. My orders are off 25% starting this month like a somebody threw a switch. We also saw 2008 coming 3 or 4 months before it made the news. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:53:10 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah, it’s certainly coming and the margins on home building right now are stressed. Land prices, materials prices/ availability, labor, etc is all wacked. There will be/ has to be a correction. That said - if you work for Andersen - the drop could very well be due to your ridiculous lead times and people moving on to something obtainable I asked earlier if he works for pella based on his location (IA) Fun fact. I ordered my pella architect series double hungs in November with an initial delivery of april-may. Now its maybe june-july. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:57:04 AM EDT
[#38]
High gas prices were the pin the popped the bubble back on 2007. Just hope this it's just a recession and not another great recession...
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:58:20 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm ordering a new front door today. Make sure the installers can't use your bathroom. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:59:06 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Make sure the installers can't use your bathroom. 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 8:59:17 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It needs to happen and it is not happening as quick as I want it too..People have way, way too much money and are spending it like they are mad and there is no tomorrow.. Inflation will soar unless people stop the foolish spending.. People's spending habits don't create inflation. The Fed creates inflation. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:00:08 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think that's smart if if the world doesn't end tomorrow. Getting control of your life means getting control of your spending and your slavery to the credit card banks. Debts don’t exist if society collapses 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:01:58 AM EDT
[#43]
Antidotal, but I am having work done on a pool.
6+ months ago, the pool contractors in this area would barely answer their phones (Austin TX area). Last week the owner of one drove 30min to my house, in the late evening (8pm), to sign the contract. Demo crew begin work the next morning. Also need some flooring done, looked at some samples about 10 days ago, sales person was chomping-at-the-bit; said they could begin ASAP. I was surprised they had immediate availability, they were too. Neither is scientific, but both were impossible not long ago (this area has been on fire for this type of work). |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:06:23 AM EDT
[#44]
What if we are already in one.
 Fed is leading through the rear view mirror. Economy has been slowing for awhile. And funny enough, double digit input costs are now cascading through the entire economy. PPI isn't slowing down. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:12:17 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What if we are already in one. Fed is leading through the rear view mirror. Economy has been slowing for awhile. And funny enough, double digit input costs are now cascading through the entire economy. PPI isn't slowing down. Already reported a contraction last quarter I believe. We only need a second quarter of contraction to "officially" be in one. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:12:41 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh my goodness. Wow. Hopefully sarcasm. No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:21:09 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There's a Pella plant north of me, one of their shift managers works out in the same gym I do. For a while they had big supply issues like everything else. Couldn't work because they didn't have aluminum. Ill have to check with him next time I see him, see if they've got the same problems as OP. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Do you work for Pella OP? There's a Pella plant north of me, one of their shift managers works out in the same gym I do. For a while they had big supply issues like everything else. Couldn't work because they didn't have aluminum. Ill have to check with him next time I see him, see if they've got the same problems as OP. I have worked in the 60 plus hour range every week for the last 3 years except one week each year. Our winter shutdown week for maintenance we have no production. My maintenance work is done in a few days that week. So one week a year I haven’t had overtime for the last 3 years. We never stopped during Covid at all. Aluminum supply was an issue, but even just running with the aluminum we had we were working overtime. Most delays on production were material availability and work force shortage. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:22:28 AM EDT
[#48]
In my area there is still a ton of demand, but people can't afford the high prices (made even more expensive to the homeowners who are financing due to rising rates), so they are bailing because they can't afford it.
Hopefully it's not a full on crash, but a slowdown that causes prices to moderate some. Framing material going up over 100%+ over the last 6 months along with other insane price increases had to cause things to slow down. |
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:23:15 AM EDT
[#49]
We seen a huge drop in our shop. We do commercial vehicles and the flow just came to a complete stop last week. Went from swamped to next to no back log.
|
|
|
|
Posted: 5/18/2022 9:24:44 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. |
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
