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Quoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. View Quote Am I safe to assume you are a billionaire now? |
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Quoted: What are these things you're buying at 70% discount? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. This plan exists only in his mind at this point |
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that interest rate increase was an ass kicker to the housing market.
the shock it sends out is just starting, and the rate will increase a few more times before the end of the year. |
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Ordered some new windows last September and after having to wait for them to come in, it wasn't until December that they were finally installed due to supply and transportation. We were told that it was good that we ordered them when I did as they already had price increase. We were also told that if we had any thoughts about replacing additional windows I had better move on it at that time as they were expecting another price increase. We decided to wait due to Christmas coming up and hedged that things would improve. I also suspected that there was a little bit of salesmanship going on. Well, turns out I was wrong and we should have listened to him. After pricing additional windows about a month ago, we found out that there had been 3 more price increases since December with the current price being more than double what we paid in September. Further, we were told that we shouldn't expect to get them installed until August. We passed.
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Quoted: I work for a major window and door company. We have been swamped working insane overtime for the last few years. Our orders have just dropped dramatically each day starting on Monday this week. In our industry this happens fast saw it in 2008. Here it comes...I’ve been saving my overtime money in preparation so I’m as ready as I can be. View Quote My job was similar. We went from a wartime production rate to having welders out sealing the parking lot and weedeating. We were doing 6 days a week and they had been doing that since 2019 basically and a few months into this year it all came to a screeching halt. OT was cut, we went back to 8's and no Saturdays. Basically it was because there is a massive supply issue with some steel and a ton of projects are on hold. Orders are also slowing down so they are now pulling people for different jobs since theres not enough to do. We have also lost 4 people since the beginning of the year, and no one is being hired to replace them because of the slowdown |
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Quoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Oh my goodness. Wow. Hopefully sarcasm. No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. |
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I’m looking forward to good deals on slightly used gear/toys bought with Biden Bucks.
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Quoted: that interest rate increase was an ass kicker to the housing market. the shock it sends out is just starting, and the rate will increase a few more times before the end of the year. View Quote |
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Quoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Oh my goodness. Wow. Hopefully sarcasm. No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. Gooooood luck with that |
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Quoted: I think a recession isn’t identified until 2 quarters of shrink has occurred. We’re already 1/3 of the way there. In essence, we’re in recession right now. It just hasn’t been identified as such. Just like covid is endemic (and has been), even though it doesn’t meet the definition criteria yet. View Quote It’s already happening. RRs are a leading indicator of a recession. Our volumes are sliding off a cliff. |
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Target stock down 25% in a day, Costco down 10%, Walmart down big all because of higher costs compressing profits.
A lot of businesses have been absorbing some of the rising costs because they were nervous to be the first ones to start raising prices in a big way. Imagine when these higher costs fully get passed on to consoomers Strong demand, run bull run |
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Quoted: Target stock down 25% in a day, Costco down 10%, Walmart down big because of higher costs compressing profits. A lot of businesses have been absorbing some of the rising costs because they were nervous to be the first ones. Imagine when these higher costs fully get passed on to consoomers View Quote Add DLTR Dollar Tree to that list, down 17% on the day currently ETA: Dollar General DG currently down 13% |
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Quoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs. View Quote Same, mine has the *itch* to get us back into debt right now. Told her I'm not looking at a single house until November this year. |
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Quoted: Anderson Windows suck. It's just your company. The rest of the country is fine. Economy is great. Ignore actual orders. *All the above is sarcasm. I think the building season will be strong. Lots of pent up demand, money borrowed already and material ordered. However, there will be a hard crash at some point. I've told people to hold off on projects that don't absolutely have to be done now. Prices will drop. View Quote Anderson windows does have some of the most annoying advertising. Hope that's not where op works. "Sorry to have missed you... we were in the neighborhood... wanted to catch up again...we tried to contact you" in fake handwritten but not notes on top of flyers in the mail, every 3 days ffs! No, I have no interest and we never spoke and you didn't try to meet nor where any of your staff in the neighborhood. Cut your prices in half and stop spamming, |
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Quoted: Same, mine has the *itch* to get us back into debt right now. Told her I'm not looking at a single house until November this year. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs. Same, mine has the *itch* to get us back into debt right now. Told her I'm not looking at a single house until November this year. FOMO’ing on the house buying frenzy of the last year and a half. Tell them to not pay attention to HGTV and not listen to other women. |
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Quoted: Don't forget the $80 BILLION in monthly Mortgage Backed Securities purchases over the last 2 years to keep mortgage rates artificially low . That's not only coming to an end, the Fed is now selling its MBS into the market. View Quote I was not aware of this. I'd like to learn more about it. any place in particular I can find out more? |
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Monday's here .
We've been on life support since TARP (2008). Monetary heroin decreases in effectiveness with each dose. The only thing the little fish got was time. We will witness the greatest wealth transfer in the history of humanity. It's one reason why they want war. Great distraction (and besides, maintain humanity at below 500,000 in perpetual balance with nature). |
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1/2 of Arfcom says this is perfectly normal, won’t amount to shit , just a very minor dip and things will totally be back to normal anytime now, by next election at worst, DEFINATELY not anything to be concerned about though.
Imho, what your seeing right now, is similar to the ripples from your fishing bobber as your getting “ nibbles “, indicating something is down there nibbling and about to suck it under completely at any moment.that “ something “ being your corrupt, incompetent, evil government intentionally trying to crash the country into hard times, to get the votes and support needed for their “ fix “. |
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Quoted: I think a recession isn’t identified until 2 quarters of shrink has occurred. We’re already 1/3 of the way there. In essence, we’re in recession right now. It just hasn’t been identified as such. Just like covid is endemic (and has been), even though it doesn’t meet the definition criteria yet. View Quote Fucking Covid. |
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Quoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Oh my goodness. Wow. Hopefully sarcasm. No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. Attached File Do you wear your pants on your head? |
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Quoted: OP - Does this mean lead times are decreasing? View Quote I doubt you will see that yet. I’m on the front end where aluminum parts are made. I’m along way from final production, but our orders dropping is a sign of the amount of orders coming in. There are some aluminum parts also out that we don’t have material for. I think staffing and turnover has effected final production and shipping more than us. Everyone changing jobs has lead to training issues as well I see it in the quality of service every where I go people suck at their jobs. |
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Quoted: 1/2 of Arfcom says this is perfectly normal, won’t amount to shit , just a very minor dip and things will totally be back to normal anytime now, by next election at worst, DEFINATELY not anything to be concerned about though. Imho, what your seeing right now, is similar to the ripples from your fishing bobber as your getting “ nibbles “, indicating something is down there nibbling and about to suck it under completely at any moment.that “ something “ being your corrupt, incompetent, evil government intentionally trying to crash the country into hard times, to get the votes and support needed for their “ fix “. View Quote "you just need to log off and go spend some time outside living life"... Meanwhile in real life the bills are sky rocketing and I am having a hard time finding raw goods and materials for manufacturing for the first time ever. "I have been hearing this for years and nothing happens" ...All the while we have less freedom, more debt, and a failing republic because indeed "things" have been going on the whole time and they failed to recognize it. "you just want people to be miserable"... As if encouraging people to be more financially secure, self sufficient, and better prepared in general is a recipe for being miserable. You are a doomer, buck! |
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Quoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. View Quote |
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Quoted: Yeah, it's certainly coming and the margins on home building right now are stressed. Land prices, materials prices/ availability, labor, etc is all wacked. There will be/ has to be a correction. That said - if you work for Andersen - the drop could very well be due to your ridiculous lead times and people moving on to something obtainable View Quote |
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Quoted: We seen a huge drop in our shop. We do commercial vehicles and the flow just came to a complete stop last week. Went from swamped to next to no back log. View Quote I don’t mean to be a Debbie downer, but I would suggest a change to another industry or a second job in another industry depending on your situation. All of the smart business owners I know were buying last year and now have their wallets in a vise. |
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Quoted: "you just need to log off and go spend some time outside living life"... Meanwhile in real life the bills are sky rocketing and I am having a hard time finding raw goods and materials for manufacturing for the first time ever. "I have been hearing this for years and nothing happens" ...All the while we have less freedom, more debt, and a failing republic because indeed "things" have been going on the whole time and they failed to recognize it. "you just want people to be miserable"... As if encouraging people to be more financially secure, self sufficient, and better prepared in general is a recipe for being miserable. You are a doomer, buck! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: 1/2 of Arfcom says this is perfectly normal, won’t amount to shit , just a very minor dip and things will totally be back to normal anytime now, by next election at worst, DEFINATELY not anything to be concerned about though. Imho, what your seeing right now, is similar to the ripples from your fishing bobber as your getting “ nibbles “, indicating something is down there nibbling and about to suck it under completely at any moment.that “ something “ being your corrupt, incompetent, evil government intentionally trying to crash the country into hard times, to get the votes and support needed for their “ fix “. "you just need to log off and go spend some time outside living life"... Meanwhile in real life the bills are sky rocketing and I am having a hard time finding raw goods and materials for manufacturing for the first time ever. "I have been hearing this for years and nothing happens" ...All the while we have less freedom, more debt, and a failing republic because indeed "things" have been going on the whole time and they failed to recognize it. "you just want people to be miserable"... As if encouraging people to be more financially secure, self sufficient, and better prepared in general is a recipe for being miserable. You are a doomer, buck! My personal favorite is, “I’ve been hearing this for 20 years, and nothing happened”. They saw the value of their dollar cut by 70%, but “Nothing happened”. There’s no reasoning with that level of stupidity. It’s pure willful ignorance. The don’t want their eyes open, and will eagerly fight to stay blind. |
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I got a load of material the other day and the driver said they had slowed down also i am not seeing it yet still booked out for the next 4 months but i expect it to hit soon
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I get the feeling we're all gonna die one day too. Just a feeling.
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I've been a freight broker for 21 years, i'd say we're in a recession right now. The only question is how bad will it be and if we'll see great depression 2.0.
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Quoted: Had our 2Q meeting yesterday at work and they went over the financials, commercial and residential construction #'s are still looking good. We might be heading into a recession based on negative GDP, but it's not a 2008 crash, yet. I've no doubt it's coming eventually though. View Quote Did we run out of formula in 2008? Did we run out of 2x4's and plywood? Was cat food on the shelves? Did we still have monuments and brand logos? People talk about the 2008 crash like it was the end of the world, and while it wasn't a good thing, everything happening now makes 2008 look like the good old days. There's more to it than the financials, which is bad enough, look at the mental state of the country. Look at the insistence of the education system in grooming children. People don't like it so what happens? They double down and do it more. They thumb their nose at what people think because they know nobody can stop them. We've reached this point because nobody stopped them when it was at a point it could be stopped. The covid bugaboo had shown that no matter how unreasonable, no matter how many lost their livelihoods, the people will obey. They people will obey orders that the politicians that decree then don't even follow. |
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Quoted: Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. View Quote Seriously though, you're not the only person that only spends money they have. |
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Quoted: I work for a major window and door company. We have been swamped working insane overtime for the last few years. Our orders have just dropped dramatically each day starting on Monday this week. In our industry this happens fast saw it in 2008. Here it comes...I’ve been saving my overtime money in preparation so I’m as ready as I can be. View Quote We’re still going full steam ahead. We do a lot of new construction for hospitals and the jobs are stacked up. |
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