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Posted: 5/18/2022 12:52:18 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We’re still going full steam ahead. We do a lot of new construction for hospitals and the jobs are stacked up. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I work for a major window and door company. We have been swamped working insane overtime for the last few years. Our orders have just dropped dramatically each day starting on Monday this week. In our industry this happens fast saw it in 2008. Here it comes...I’ve been saving my overtime money in preparation so I’m as ready as I can be. We’re still going full steam ahead. We do a lot of new construction for hospitals and the jobs are stacked up. Well, yeah... They're kind of expecting people, especially Boomers, to be sick... |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 12:53:55 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Biden makes Obama look competent. I have thought the same thing many times! |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 12:54:08 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My job was similar. We went from a wartime production rate to having welders out sealing the parking lot and weedeating. We were doing 6 days a week and they had been doing that since 2019 basically and a few months into this year it all came to a screeching halt. OT was cut, we went back to 8's and no Saturdays. Basically it was because there is a massive supply issue with some steel and a ton of projects are on hold. Orders are also slowing down so they are now pulling people for different jobs since theres not enough to do. We have also lost 4 people since the beginning of the year, and no one is being hired to replace them because of the slowdown We bought a metric crap ton of stuff that we needed so we could start new projects and not have to deal with the supply issues. I’m thankful I work for a guy smart enough and with deep enough pockets to just sit on that much material we don’t need yet. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 12:58:22 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: With the inflation and price of gas, it's looking more like the Carter years. I was around during the Carter years, whatever is happening now is far worse than the Carter years. For one thing, Carter was mocked, even in the media. Unlike the Obama years, Carter didn't get reelected. Cities didn't burn for a year. We still had monuments and food logos. We didn't sexualize children in preschool. We didn't have men playing on women's sports teams and going into women's locker rooms and bathrooms. After Carter people did something, they elected someone else. At this point you have to wonder if the country can even be restored. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 1:49:47 PM EDT
[#5]
This snowball is just getting rolling.
People don’t think systemic risk be like it is, but it do. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 2:22:53 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was around during the Carter years, whatever is happening now is far worse than the Carter years. For one thing, Carter was mocked, even in the media. Unlike the Obama years, Carter didn't get reelected. Cities didn't burn for a year. We still had monuments and food logos. We didn't sexualize children in preschool. We didn't have men playing on women's sports teams and going into women's locker rooms and bathrooms. After Carter people did something, they elected someone else. At this point you have to wonder if the country can even be restored. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: With the inflation and price of gas, it's looking more like the Carter years. I was around during the Carter years, whatever is happening now is far worse than the Carter years. For one thing, Carter was mocked, even in the media. Unlike the Obama years, Carter didn't get reelected. Cities didn't burn for a year. We still had monuments and food logos. We didn't sexualize children in preschool. We didn't have men playing on women's sports teams and going into women's locker rooms and bathrooms. After Carter people did something, they elected someone else. At this point you have to wonder if the country can even be restored. Truth. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 2:34:18 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was around during the Carter years, whatever is happening now is far worse than the Carter years. For one thing, Carter was mocked, even in the media. Unlike the Obama years, Carter didn't get reelected. Cities didn't burn for a year. We still had monuments and food logos. We didn't sexualize children in preschool. We didn't have men playing on women's sports teams and going into women's locker rooms and bathrooms. After Carter people did something, they elected someone else. At this point you have to wonder if the country can even be restored. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: With the inflation and price of gas, it's looking more like the Carter years. I was around during the Carter years, whatever is happening now is far worse than the Carter years. For one thing, Carter was mocked, even in the media. Unlike the Obama years, Carter didn't get reelected. Cities didn't burn for a year. We still had monuments and food logos. We didn't sexualize children in preschool. We didn't have men playing on women's sports teams and going into women's locker rooms and bathrooms. After Carter people did something, they elected someone else. At this point you have to wonder if the country can even be restored. Carter's foreign policy gave us the Iranian hostage crisis and the emergence of radical Islam in a "modern" state. He allowed America to be humiliated in front of the world. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 2:45:29 PM EDT
[#8]
Crash baby. 08 helped me made money (by learning how to save and cut back on BS) and got my family into our dream home.
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Posted: 5/18/2022 2:56:30 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Carter's foreign policy gave us the Iranian hostage crisis and the emergence of radical Islam in a "modern" state. He allowed America to be humiliated in front of the world. Well we don’t exactly look too rosy after Afghanistan either do we? |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 2:56:39 PM EDT
[#10]
I'm still getting good orders, but FedEx is jacking me over. We have negotiated rates and fuel surcharges, but every week there's some "new" charge someone pulls out of their ass to hit me with. Delivery times are getting stretched out and the delays are causing losses on my end that FedEx won't cover.
So you have to ask yourself, why am I working 6 days a week trying to get product out when I ultimately will lose on the sale? It's cheaper to throw product directly in the trash than to pack and box it and have the shipping company basically not deliver. So.... we just don't accept orders where we keep having problems on those routes. Basically there's going to be a shortage because the Walmart of trucking fucks off so much. Nothing to California by freight right now. All these weird ass little orders to New Jersey, - good bye. I ain't doing them. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 3:04:25 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You mean depression? This |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 3:07:49 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Retail stuff with high turnover things work through the sytem to show up fairly quickly. Wait till all this inflation hits that's been working through the system for 2+ years before someone (citizen or government) pays for it.  |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 3:17:06 PM EDT
[#13]
Started seeing container prices dropping last week and our orders have been a little off , but not alarming. We are still working on six months of backorders and new orders.
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Posted: 5/18/2022 3:27:05 PM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 5/18/2022 3:33:05 PM EDT
[#15]
No signs of slowing up in my business
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Posted: 5/18/2022 6:31:28 PM EDT
[#16]
I talked to my boss about our outlook for the year today.
He said they just had a meeting a day or two ago discussing this with upper levels of management. We still have a major back log that will keep us busy and they don't see our order levels slowing down much due to rising interest rates. Reason being home builders/contractors are still back logged and when building of new homes does slow down they expect a lot of people to remodel their current homes and stay in their current home until interest rates do come back down. What we are seeing this week in reduced numbers in our area is largely impacted by some of our off sites that we supply having production struggles for various reasons. Their struggles means they aren't ordering more aluminum parts from us because they are already sitting on a lot of parts we have sent them waiting to be used. We have budgeted for inflation and are keeping more inventory of raw materials on hand than normal. Aluminum is less of an issue now than it was last year as far as availability, but price for aluminum and wood is obviously way higher. I think this recession could be slower building and feel different than recessions in the past as even if orders drop substantially everyone is back logged so work is still available and layoffs wouldn't be needed. We are still hiring every body we can get especially for 2nd and 3rd shifts. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:01:21 PM EDT
[#17]
I found the following on-line and found the information interesting. There appear to be similarities to our economy now, with some twists.
1973-75 This recession lasted 16 months, from November 1973 to March 1975.19 The OPEC oil embargo is blamed for quadrupling oil prices, but actions taken by President Richard Nixon also contributed to the recession. First, Nixon instituted wage-price controls. They kept prices too high, reducing demand. Wage controls made salaries too high and forced businesses to lay off workers. Second, Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in response to a run on the gold held at Fort Knox, which led to inflation. The price of gold skyrocketed while the dollar's value plummeted.3129 The result was stagflation and five quarters of negative GDP growth: 1973 Q3, -2.1%; 1974 Q1, -3.4%; Q3, -3.7%; Q4, -1.5%; and 1975 Q1, -4.8%. Unemployment reached a peak of 9.0% in May 1975, two months after the recession ended.3224 Oil prices increased this year due to Biden's energy policies [instead of oil embargo] and democrats are talking about price controls. Wages are also too high, my opinion, currently, and inflation this time was caused by printing far to much money during supply chain shortages. Not exactly the same this time as 73-75, but similar in some ways. Seems to me we will see unemployment rise if demand slows, and this looks likely. What is old is new??? |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:05:33 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was around during the Carter years, whatever is happening now is far worse than the Carter years. For one thing, Carter was mocked, even in the media. Unlike the Obama years, Carter didn't get reelected. Cities didn't burn for a year. We still had monuments and food logos. We didn't sexualize children in preschool. We didn't have men playing on women's sports teams and going into women's locker rooms and bathrooms. After Carter people did something, they elected someone else. At this point you have to wonder if the country can even be restored. Well stated. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:09:47 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Oh my goodness.  Wow. Hopefully sarcasm.  No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works..  for some reason I read that in the voice of my toilet trying hork down a 400 Couric Cleveland steamer.
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:17:03 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don't know about y'all, but, I've been very busy for the last 3 years killing off any and every debt that I had, topping off the larder and in generally distancing myself from bad habits... Same. Been investing what excess I get into my farm and machine shop. Hoping to pick up some contract work this summer. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:17:17 PM EDT
[#21]
Shortages, diesel over $6.00, fucked housing market, fucked labor market, tanking stocks, tanking crypto, interest rates shooting up, inflation...
Nah everything is fine. Wonder what happens when all these backlogged orders suddenly get cancelled as demand tanks. I think most have been very cautious with their production but I'm sure many turned things up to 11 looking for that quick dollar. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:20:55 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Shortages, diesel over $6.00, fucked housing market, fucked labor market, tanking stocks, tanking cripto, interest rates shooting up, inflation... Nah everything is fine. Wonder what happens when all these backlogged orders suddenly get cancelled as demand tanks. I’ve been assured demand must always be fulfilled, because it’s pent up! Supply? It has to stay low. It’s a new paradigm!!!! We are in for some serious short term suck. I’ll let you know how it plays out after it’s over. It’ll all come back. It’s called a business cycle for a reason. This as as natural as anything in nature. It was here before the fed, it’ll be here after the fed. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:24:35 PM EDT
[#23]
If it's Andersen you work for, the slow down isn't due to any recession. It's because Andersen fucked over builders when their aluminum supplier got taken over by Ford Motor Company.
Andersen handled it like shit and this is the result. My supplier contacted me recently to inform me that their fiberglass like is only 4-6 weeks out. Don't care, will never sell another Andersen window. Fuck them. They did it to themselves. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:26:57 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. Your post got a lot of laughing emojis, but this is how the rich get richer during a down turn. The poors lose a job. Can't pay bills. Sell stocks at decreased values, cash out 401k's. Smart people are buying. The same people are selling their motorcycles, campers and side by sides they financed for whatever they can. Houses are being walked away from. Patient people with a cash reserve buy this crap at steep discounts. Happens every single downturn. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:30:09 PM EDT
[#25]
Quoted: I work for a major window and door company. We have been swamped working insane overtime for the last few years. Our orders have just dropped dramatically each day starting on Monday this week. In our industry this happens fast saw it in 2008. Here it comes...I’ve been saving my overtime money in preparation so I’m as ready as I can be. More people should be like you. Keep us posted on your situation at work. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:31:45 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: OP - Does this mean lead times are decreasing? This, I think I have 14 more weeks on my windows for my new garage. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:33:35 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’ve been assured demand must always be fulfilled, because it’s pent up! Supply? It has to stay low. It’s a new paradigm!!!! We are in for some serious short term suck. I’ll let you know how it plays out after it’s over. It’ll all come back. It’s called a business cycle for a reason. This as as natural as anything in nature. It was here before the fed, it’ll be here after the fed. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Shortages, diesel over $6.00, fucked housing market, fucked labor market, tanking stocks, tanking cripto, interest rates shooting up, inflation... Nah everything is fine. Wonder what happens when all these backlogged orders suddenly get cancelled as demand tanks. I’ve been assured demand must always be fulfilled, because it’s pent up! Supply? It has to stay low. It’s a new paradigm!!!! We are in for some serious short term suck. I’ll let you know how it plays out after it’s over. It’ll all come back. It’s called a business cycle for a reason. This as as natural as anything in nature. It was here before the fed, it’ll be here after the fed. The big problem is the Fed tried to change the business cycle in 2008. They have been printing to avoid the pain for 14 years. Well, the piper is coming. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:34:15 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff."  not if people cant afford to buy those things at inflated prices. all those things will drop. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:34:45 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff." not if people cant afford to buy those things at inflated prices. all those things will drop. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 8:37:19 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It needs to happen and it is not happening as quick as I want it too..People have way, way too much money and are spending it like they are mad and there is no tomorrow.. Inflation will soar unless people stop the foolish spending.. its not too much money, its lack of supply. thats more dangerous imho. that shit thats high priced is needed but low supply. food, transport, building materials. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 9:23:35 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This snowball is just getting rolling. People don't think systemic risk be like it is, but it do. He kept hammering that we needed a deep recession to absorb the pain of the bubble we keep reinflating. I fully expected Armageddon by now, but haven't seen it. Yet. @exponentialpi, what do you feel is coming? And to what extent? For example, how do you see life as an American 1 year from now? |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 10:16:27 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well we don’t exactly look too rosy after Afghanistan either do we? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Carter's foreign policy gave us the Iranian hostage crisis and the emergence of radical Islam in a "modern" state. He allowed America to be humiliated in front of the world. Well we don’t exactly look too rosy after Afghanistan either do we? America didn't look too rosy after Vietnam. The hostage crisis and the Iranian revolution was a whole different thing. Were you an adult at that time? |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 10:36:05 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I used to subscribe to Ron Paul's theory that we can't keep printing money without inflating it and removing real wealth. He kept hammering that we needed a deep recession to absorb the pain of the bubble we keep reinflating. I fully expected Armageddon by now, but haven't seen it. Yet. @exponentialpi, what do you feel is coming? And to what extent? For example, how do you see life as an American 1 year from now? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This snowball is just getting rolling. People don't think systemic risk be like it is, but it do. He kept hammering that we needed a deep recession to absorb the pain of the bubble we keep reinflating. I fully expected Armageddon by now, but haven't seen it. Yet. @exponentialpi, what do you feel is coming? And to what extent? For example, how do you see life as an American 1 year from now? Short answer. Deleveraging. Long answer: Deeper and widespread shortages, amplified by companies just going broke. Less choice and ability to spend on discretionary items. Fewer vacations. Most of your paycheck goes to bills and food with very little left over for months on end. |
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Posted: 5/18/2022 10:40:23 PM EDT
[#34]
The world (USA) continues to burn. Job security for me.
 
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Posted: 5/19/2022 6:02:34 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The world (USA) continues to burn. Job security for me. Firefighter? @sunnybean |
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Posted: 5/19/2022 6:58:46 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I used to subscribe to Ron Paul's theory that we can't keep printing money without inflating it and removing real wealth. He kept hammering that we needed a deep recession to absorb the pain of the bubble we keep reinflating. I fully expected Armageddon by now, but haven't seen it. Yet. @exponentialpi, what do you feel is coming? And to what extent? For example, how do you see life as an American 1 year from now? The ruling class will always come up with a new way to kick the can down the road. The people will eventually get tired of the lefts shit and the stealing of elections but we are many many years from that point. As long as a majority of Americans have food, water, electricity, and housing, no one will do anything. No one knows what's coming now, next week, or ever. If they did they would be richer than Elon and definitely not on this site. When someone genuinely thinks they know what's going to happen in the future, that's a red flag to not take it seriously. There's always going to be cyclic things going on but as far as the great reset, cival war, America crashing, no one knows. |
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Posted: 5/19/2022 7:12:44 PM EDT
[#37]
FJB.
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Posted: 5/19/2022 7:34:03 PM EDT
[#38]
I believe we're already in a recession and headed for a depression. Maybe I'm wrong but I've been preparing, scaling back, saving money, putting some food away, and cutting out un-necessary crap like Netflix, Peacock, etc. I was planning on buying a new motorcycle but that's not going to happen this year...maybe not next year either.
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Posted: 5/19/2022 9:20:15 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Firefighter? @sunnybean Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The world (USA) continues to burn. Job security for me. Firefighter? @sunnybean Yep. Well, for another 2y 3m 11d anyway. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 12:57:29 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep. Well, for another 2y 3m 11d anyway. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The world (USA) continues to burn. Job security for me. Firefighter? @sunnybean Yep. Well, for another 2y 3m 11d anyway. Two years will go by in a flash. I retired April 9th. |
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Posted: 5/20/2022 1:07:43 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house.  Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.She should wait a little and will get more house for less $$$ soon even with interest rates. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 2:56:18 AM EDT
[#42]
Any updates?
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Posted: 5/25/2022 4:47:43 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Any updates? Updates on what? We have off sites struggling to meet their production goals. We supply them with parts and since they are behind and we are ahead of them they aren't ordering more parts from us. So instead of working 60+ hours a week we are currently at about 50 on average. One site for example is expected to build 300+ windows per day and their best day so far is 197. Obviously they aren't meeting production goals. We haven't really slowed down essentially we are just ahead on the parts making side because the final assembly lines are behind. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:38:57 AM EDT
[#44]
Will it take less than a year to get a window made now?
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:40:42 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Debts don’t exist if society collapses https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/218/908/247.gif Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I think that's smart if if the world doesn't end tomorrow. Getting control of your life means getting control of your spending and your slavery to the credit card banks. Debts don’t exist if society collapses https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/218/908/247.gif You'll never have to pay for that house that gets burned to the ground. Win! |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:45:00 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.@MrGoodkat Good luck with building, we just had a 3,000 sq foot house priced out, and the builder was at $404.00 per sqft. Fuck that. This was in Wilmington NC. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 5:45:38 AM EDT
[#47]
I would say a Depression is more likely. We will blow through a recession like crap through a goose.
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:14:23 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It needs to happen and it is not happening as quick as I want it too..People have way, way too much money and are spending it like they are mad and there is no tomorrow.. Inflation will soar unless people stop the foolish spending.. Change to credit. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:15:28 AM EDT
[#49]
Advertising seems slower than last year, but definitely busier than 2020. I'll start getting concerned when our August (busy season) schedule looks like 2020.
But I definitely think it's coming. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:16:03 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Had our 2Q meeting yesterday at work and they went over the financials, commercial and residential construction #’s are still looking good. We might be heading into a recession based on negative GDP, but it’s not a 2008 crash, yet. I’ve no doubt it’s coming eventually though. My guess is early fall. When the vacation credit card comes due. |
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