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Posted: 5/25/2022 6:17:45 AM EDT
[#1]
I'm retired try to live within my income. need a new roof (small leak)
I do have cash savings and investments I hope not to use. I've told companies that gave estimates I'm trying to decide what to do. I just don't know what's coming down the road. 15 grand is a big chunk of cash for me, do I patch and wait? If cost of living goes beyond income that cash could be a savior. They all understand my dilemma  I'm sure others are in similar positions  |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:16:29 AM EDT
[#2]
Good, people need to stop buying/ordering with the current business model being “ fork over your cash now and we will get this done sometime in the next year or two maybe” businesses are greedy but truthfully could stand closing up shop until they actually have inventory. It’s starting to look like real life businesses operating like Amazon drop shippers and I’ve gotten tired of it.
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:17:34 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Updates on what? We have off sites struggling to meet their production goals. We supply them with parts and since they are behind and we are ahead of them they aren't ordering more parts from us. So instead of working 60+ hours a week we are currently at about 50 on average. One site for example is expected to build 300+ windows per day and their best day so far is 197. Obviously they aren't meeting production goals. We haven't really slowed down essentially we are just ahead on the parts making side because the final assembly lines are behind. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Any updates? Updates on what? We have off sites struggling to meet their production goals. We supply them with parts and since they are behind and we are ahead of them they aren't ordering more parts from us. So instead of working 60+ hours a week we are currently at about 50 on average. One site for example is expected to build 300+ windows per day and their best day so far is 197. Obviously they aren't meeting production goals. We haven't really slowed down essentially we are just ahead on the parts making side because the final assembly lines are behind. Sounds like the second shoe hasn't dropped yet. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:30:33 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good, people need to stop buying/ordering with the current business model being “ fork over your cash now and we will get this done sometime in the next year or two maybe” businesses are greedy but truthfully could stand closing up shop until they actually have inventory. It’s starting to look like real life businesses operating like Amazon drop shippers and I’ve gotten tired of it. Several factors here. A large amount of our product is custom colors so inventory isn’t an option. Demand is at an all time high while there is a worker shortage. We work overtime every single week and have been at 60 plus for 3 consecutive years. No one wants to do that anymore. Covid shutdown caused major issues getting raw material. We were paying insane costs to fly in aluminum to bypass the shit show at the ports. All our sites combined build thousands of windows and doors a day. We still can’t keep up. No business will turn down orders no matter how far behind they are. I believe we are 6 months out currently, but some items will be less. Our policy is to ship entire orders at once so if there is a hold up on one item that causes delays. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:47:44 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Several factors here. A large amount of our product is custom colors so inventory isn’t an option. Demand is at an all time high while there is a worker shortage. We work overtime every single week and have been at 60 plus for 3 consecutive years. No one wants to do that anymore. Covid shutdown caused major issues getting raw material. We were paying insane costs to fly in aluminum to bypass the shit show at the ports. All our sites combined build thousands of windows and doors a day. We still can’t keep up. No business will turn down orders no matter how far behind they are. I believe we are 6 months out currently, but some items will be less. Our policy is to ship entire orders at once so if there is a hold up on one item that causes delays. Wonder how many plans to build houses will get canceled or stop. Happened in 08 a ton, and after. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:54:43 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wonder how many plans to build houses will get canceled or stop. Happened in 08 a ton, and after. Oddly 2008 was the second highest year for overtime. We didn’t slow down until 2009. In 2009 we did an early retirement incentive and didn’t have any layoffs until 2010. Even then it was minimal and basically got rid of people that needed fired anyway. Until there are mass layoffs you will not see houses that are already begun getting cancelled. With everyone being short staff and behind this recession is going to feel different. Eta: last year was the most overtime I ever worked and this year is on pace to beat that. We haven’t hit busy season yet. Last weeks orders were less and I only worked about 50 hours, but this week is back up again. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 7:56:22 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house.  Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.It is time to wait. Everything is high as hell. You will come out cheaper and better if you can just wait. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:02:00 AM EDT
[#8]
My opinion:
Things are slowing down because people think a recession is coming and they think we're going to have another '08, or something that resembles it, if not as bad. People don't want to buy a house for $500k and have it be worth $400k a couple years later. It makes it impossible to get out of the house at that point. Same with spending "X" on a renovation that then doesn't improve the value of the house. Contractors know this and so things are slowing way down, because THEY don't want to spend money on an expensive development at todays prices only to be forced to sell well below today's market value due to lack of demand, thus making no money or even losing it. If you can weather it, the correction will be good for some as it will stabilize a currently insane housing market, it's the pain in between that is going to cause problems. The question is whether those problems are so bad that it stops being a correction and is something much worse. |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 8:03:32 AM EDT
[#9]
Bad times are coming for the 'fake' economy. Building things in China and shipping them here is getting hit with port closings in China and fuel/shipping costs.
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Posted: 5/25/2022 9:44:31 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @MrGoodkat Good luck with building, we just had a 3,000 sq foot house priced out, and the builder was at $404.00 per sqft. Fuck that. This was in Wilmington NC. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We are sitting really good right now. Living way below our means. But now my wife is suddenly hellbent on buying or building a new, expensive house. Great timing. Even if no recession, housing and material costs are at or near all time highs.@MrGoodkat Good luck with building, we just had a 3,000 sq foot house priced out, and the builder was at $404.00 per sqft. Fuck that. This was in Wilmington NC.  Insane |
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Posted: 5/25/2022 11:22:52 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Several factors here. A large amount of our product is custom colors so inventory isn’t an option. Demand is at an all time high while there is a worker shortage. We work overtime every single week and have been at 60 plus for 3 consecutive years. No one wants to do that anymore. Covid shutdown caused major issues getting raw material. We were paying insane costs to fly in aluminum to bypass the shit show at the ports. All our sites combined build thousands of windows and doors a day. We still can’t keep up. No business will turn down orders no matter how far behind they are. I believe we are 6 months out currently, but some items will be less. Our policy is to ship entire orders at once so if there is a hold up on one item that causes delays. Sure all that is fine and dandy at the end of the day the customer/contracter will say enough enough and stop buying or “placing orders” I know a lot of contractors have cut ties with several distributors in various fields because they are the middle man getting rekt from customers bailing out of work or distributors placing never ending back orders. Imagine going to buy grocery’s paying full price at the register to leave with nothing but PO’s and an eta of a month for your food. If it makes people feel better it’s not about blame,it’s about the fact that the economy will cease to exist if this continues in infinite with no “covid” or etc excuse. I as an example will gladly place an order for something in back order just don’t expect full deposit for it up front. After all of demand is 100000000% like places brag about having you won’t be hard pressed to sell if I change my mind. Looks to me like businesses are selling products to customers with money they don’t even have. Just my piss poor outlook at least |
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Posted: 6/5/2022 5:22:21 PM EDT
[#12]
How long until the depression?
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Posted: 6/5/2022 5:58:55 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My opinion: Things are slowing down because people think a recession is coming and they think we're going to have another '08, or something that resembles it, if not as bad. People don't want to buy a house for $500k and have it be worth $400k a couple years later. It makes it impossible to get out of the house at that point. Same with spending "X" on a renovation that then doesn't improve the value of the house. Contractors know this and so things are slowing way down, because THEY don't want to spend money on an expensive development at todays prices only to be forced to sell well below today's market value due to lack of demand, thus making no money or even losing it. If you can weather it, the correction will be good for some as it will stabilize a currently insane housing market, it's the pain in between that is going to cause problems. The question is whether those problems are so bad that it stops being a correction and is something much worse. I dunno about the slowdown in construction. Here in South-Central PA, the development down the road that is all $400k+ McMansions is going up like gangbusters, no slowdown evident. The locals sure can't afford said houses by and large, so I guess its MD transplants moving over the border, bringing their culture and voting records with them.  $300k 3-level weird looking townhouses are selling well too. Dunno why. |
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Posted: 6/5/2022 7:03:26 PM EDT
[#14]
Building doesn't seem to be slowing too much around here, but a lot of it is loans that were approved last year, and everyone is just so far behind they are just getting ground broken.
People seem to be spending on building as fast as they can, and they seem kind of pissy about it a lot of the time lately. I have noticed a lot of penny pinching going on with people building houses though. We are only pouring half a garage floor on a new house soon. (the garage is huge at least), but stuff like that just seems silly to me, and is an indicator that they are shaving as much as they can, wherever they can. |
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Posted: 6/5/2022 7:07:45 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Building doesn't seem to be slowing too much around here, but a lot of it is loans that were approved last year, and everyone is just so far behind they are just getting ground broken. People seem to be spending on building as fast as they can, and they seem kind of pissy about it a lot of the time lately. I have noticed a lot of penny pinching going on with people building houses though. We are only pouring half a garage floor on a new house soon. (the garage is huge at least), but stuff like that just seems silly to me, and is an indicator that they are shaving as much as they can, wherever they can. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 5:02:00 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yeah construction doesn't seem to be slowing down here... Had a meeting for a new single family build last Friday. Actually we are still hiring and even adding a second shift in areas where we currently only have one shift. The areas with one shift including mine have been working insane over time every week for the last few years so they are trying to reduce the amount of over time by adding a second shift. They say along with the back log and the current order volume that continues to come in this is the direction we need to go. This is assuming we can actually find workers to fill a second shift. It's a weird economy with this inflation and rising rates because everyone is still spending money and as long as that happens it's going to be a little weird. Everyone is still hiring around here and struggling to find good workers. So no layoffs and everyone still spending is holding off a recession for now. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 5:17:23 AM EDT
[#17]
Serious question.
The median household income hovers around $75,000. Monthly payments hover at 2,000 - 2500 and up. That’s 1/3 to 1/2 of the families expenditures before they spend another dime. Where’s the money coming from? |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 5:25:41 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Serious question. The median household income hovers around $75,000. Monthly payments hover at 2,000 - 2500 and up. That’s 1/3 to 1/2 of the families expenditures before they spend another dime. Where’s the money coming from? Consumer debt is back on the rise. Lots of middle class folks are sitting on cash right now too. They sold off assets in the last two years, homes, land, equipment, RVs, all kinds of stuff that the prices have soared on. We did a job for a guy that sold off some land when the price spiked, it built him a huge new shop, that he paid all the builders cash for. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 5:29:21 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, well, with inflation running as high as it is, depending on HOW he "saved" it, he might have been better off buying "trucks, toys, or other stuff."  Saving money with an impending drop in the stock market is a good thing. That's how a smart man profits. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 5:35:03 AM EDT
[#20]
I’d be fine with a big pullback in housing prices. I’ve accumulated a large cash position and would be a buyer when prices recede, which they will.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 5:38:34 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep. Well, for another 2y 3m 11d anyway. Thank you for fighting the dragon. I did firefighting training at Treasure Island in 1987 with the Navy, and discovered I want to be the one LEAVING the burning building...then I came here and discovered it's still part of my job.  Bills are paid, house is paid, reserves, etc., and my job basically never disappears, normally. We are still hiring now. Doesn't mean it's any more fun, but I a in FAR better shape to ride this out than I was just a year ago. |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 7:13:45 AM EDT
[#22]
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Posted: 6/7/2022 7:19:34 AM EDT
[#23]
I don't wish ill on anyone, but I hope real estate prices crash. I want to buy some hunting acreage, but not at these prices.
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:34:40 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Antidotal, but I am having work done on a pool. 6+ months ago, the pool contractors in this area would barely answer their phones (Austin TX area). Last week the owner of one drove 30min to my house, in the late evening (8pm), to sign the contract. Demo crew begin work the next morning. Also need some flooring done, looked at some samples about 10 days ago, sales person was chomping-at-the-bit; said they could begin ASAP. I was surprised they had immediate availability, they were too. Neither is scientific, but both were impossible not long ago (this area has been on fire for this type of work). Antidotal? |
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Posted: 6/7/2022 8:36:06 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Oh my goodness.  Wow. Hopefully sarcasm.  No I am not. Let me explain how recession works out for me..I have plenty of cash and assets in my home..I never have and never will deal in credit,,If I cannot aford it I forgo it. Now onto the other 99% of you that spend foolishly on the unneeeded things and cannot pay cash like me..When it crashes down..I use my cash to buy up all your stuff you foolishly overpaid for at a 70% discount with my cash..So you can pay off your self induced foolish debt you got yourself into while using your credit.. Added benefits are I can also buy fuel, food and everything else cheaper with my cash, gold and silver when it crashes down for you......My system has always worked great for me,LOL Really pretty simple..When you are not able to buy..I am..Supply rises..Demand drops because you can no longer buy it as your credit card company shut you off.Result...I buy at much lower prices.. Things turn around..I sell my ill gotten gains back to at much higher prices..Evil but it works.. Use some cash to buy a dictionary. |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 10:52:38 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm retired try to live within my income. need a new roof (small leak) I do have cash savings and investments I hope not to use. I've told companies that gave estimates I'm trying to decide what to do. I just don't know what's coming down the road. 15 grand is a big chunk of cash for me, do I patch and wait? If cost of living goes beyond income that cash could be a savior. They all understand my dilemma I'm sure others are in similar positions If all you have is a "small leak," 15 grand for a new roof is  to the nth degree. I got a new roof for under $4k. Was only about 1200sqft though. |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 11:00:43 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm retired try to live within my income. need a new roof (small leak) I do have cash savings and investments I hope not to use. I've told companies that gave estimates I'm trying to decide what to do. I just don't know what's coming down the road. 15 grand is a big chunk of cash for me, do I patch and wait? If cost of living goes beyond income that cash could be a savior. They all understand my dilemma I'm sure others are in similar positions Same here, I gotta guy coming Thursday to do some roof patch work ( I don't get on roofs anymore) and we're doing a new fence around the house. Save when you can brother - we may need it later. |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 11:13:47 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Serious question. The median household income hovers around $75,000. Monthly payments hover at 2,000 - 2500 and up. That’s 1/3 to 1/2 of the families expenditures before they spend another dime. Where’s the money coming from? It’s kind of silly to focus on the median income. That’s driven low by failure-to-launch’ers who live with roommates or with their parents. You answer your question accurately, you’d have to get the specific data on the buyers. One thing is sure, and we’ve seen it here: People today, don’t worry about ever paying off the debt. They don’t even entertain the thought. |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 11:33:22 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I found the following on-line and found the information interesting. There appear to be similarities to our economy now, with some twists. 1973-75 This recession lasted 16 months, from November 1973 to March 1975.19 The OPEC oil embargo is blamed for quadrupling oil prices, but actions taken by President Richard Nixon also contributed to the recession. First, Nixon instituted wage-price controls. They kept prices too high, reducing demand. Wage controls made salaries too high and forced businesses to lay off workers. Second, Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in response to a run on the gold held at Fort Knox, which led to inflation. The price of gold skyrocketed while the dollar's value plummeted.3129 The result was stagflation and five quarters of negative GDP growth: 1973 Q3, -2.1%; 1974 Q1, -3.4%; Q3, -3.7%; Q4, -1.5%; and 1975 Q1, -4.8%. Unemployment reached a peak of 9.0% in May 1975, two months after the recession ended.3224 Oil prices increased this year due to Biden's energy policies [instead of oil embargo] and democrats are talking about price controls. Wages are also too high, my opinion, currently, and inflation this time was caused by printing far to much money during supply chain shortages. Not exactly the same this time as 73-75, but similar in some ways. Seems to me we will see unemployment rise if demand slows, and this looks likely. What is old is new??? Similarities for sure, but also significant differences, first we're already off the gold standard so that economic turmoil won't factor (or still is depending on your opinions of fiat currencies) Second and this will be an interesting one, we're going into (or are already in) a recession with a labor shortage, the first round of layoffs will be invisible, basically unfilled positions will either remain unfilled or be stricken from the books. There's still a shit ton of cash to work it's way through the markets. The unfortunate thing for many (especially anyone on the planet of military age) is that we're basically all squared up in our corners waiting for the bell to signal the start of WW3 and noting breaks an economic stagnation like a big ass war. |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 11:45:12 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Similarities for sure, but also significant differences, first we're already off the gold standard so that economic turmoil won't factor (or still is depending on your opinions of fiat currencies) Second and this will be an interesting one, we're going into (or are already in) a recession with a labor shortage, the first round of layoffs will be invisible, basically unfilled positions will either remain unfilled or be stricken from the books. There's still a shit ton of cash to work it's way through the markets. The unfortunate thing for many (especially anyone on the planet of military age) is that we're basically all squared up in our corners waiting for the bell to signal the start of WW3 and noting breaks an economic stagnation like a big ass war. Great summation.... interesting times. |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 12:04:06 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Similarities for sure, but also significant differences, first we're already off the gold standard so that economic turmoil won't factor (or still is depending on your opinions of fiat currencies) Second and this will be an interesting one, we're going into (or are already in) a recession with a labor shortage, the first round of layoffs will be invisible, basically unfilled positions will either remain unfilled or be stricken from the books. There's still a shit ton of cash to work it's way through the markets. The unfortunate thing for many (especially anyone on the planet of military age) is that we're basically all squared up in our corners waiting for the bell to signal the start of WW3 and noting breaks an economic stagnation like a big ass war. Great fucking post |
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Posted: 7/4/2022 12:18:25 PM EDT
[#32]
If you work for Anderson, they just gave my parents an insane quote for windows.
I could see why that company is doing bad.. |
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