Rus can't get the stuff needed to make a modern tank effective - wind sensors, range finders, night vision systems, electronic stuff.  So while the Russians can build/repair, regenerate tanks at a certain rate, the effectiveness fo each "new" tank will drop over time due to samnctions.

How's that copium taste?

For sitting on the edge of town and shelling anything bigger than a well house, they'd probably work just fine.

LMAO.

This was a list from /k/ back in September 2023, counting Ukrainian losses of Western equipment.

(According to Oryx, all visually confirmed -- LOST includes damaged and destroyed)

Tanks
Leopard 2A6 (21) - Lost (9) - (43%)
Leopard 2A4 (54) - Lost (7) - (13%)
M-55s - (28) - Lost (2) - (7%)
Challenger 2 (14) - Lost (1) - (7%)
PT-91 Twardy (60) - Lost (2) - (3%)
Leopard 1A5 (165) - Lost (0) - (0%)
Strv 122s (10) - Lost (0) - (0%)

AFVs
AMX-10 RC (40) - Lost (4) - (10%)

IFVs
Bradley M2A2 (182) - Lost (53) - (29%)
YPR-765 (196) - Lost (48) - (24%)
CV90 (50) - Lost (3) - (6%)
KTO Rosomak (200) - Lost (1) - (0.5%)
Marder (40) - Lost (0) - (0%)

APC
M113 (778) - Lost (66) - (8%)
FV103 Spartan (114) - Lost (3) - (3%)
VAB (60) Delivered - Lost (12) - (20%)
Patria Pasi (20) - Lost (7) - (35%)
Bushmaster (90) - Lost (8) - (9%)
Stryker - (157) - Lost (3) - (2%)



Certain Ukrainian heavy industry plants devoted to AFV production were hit in the early war missile strikes, back when Russia had tons of missiles and was able to spam a lot of them. It's been about two years since those strikes, that's long enough to rebuild them.

Also; Ukraine has free and open pick of technologies from the West -- for example, did you know that the best Russian tanks -- T-90s were using imported French Catharine thermal sights?

All the "war production" tanks Russia are making can be discerned from pre-war models easily if you are autistic enough to know what to look for. The "original" T-90Ms pre-war had air conditioning installed. The latest ones don't. You can see this in interior views of the latest T-90M 2023 models where the air conditioning control panel has been removed and replaced with a conventional (famous) Russian floppy plastic fan for ventilation.

Stop posting classified marked shit.  Any person who surfs in on the thread from a .mil computer technically just fragged their computer.  It doesn't matter the age or source, it is still classified.

Did you realize your Oryx and social media autist lists don't work when no media gets released?

Those lists mean nothing to me.

Russia doesn't have a lot of missiles and isn't "spamming" a lot of them right now? They have fired literally hundreds since December.

So what is the Ukrainian output rate of said factories?  Because if they were putting out tanks right now it would be front page news.  However, it is functionally irrelevant as it's too late, the maneuver war is effectively over for Ukraine. They couldn't break the lines with the largest equipment and troop surge in history, they aren't breaking it now that they are about to start receiving the smallest tranches of supplies pretty consistently.  They have also given the Russians months of breathing room to regenerate their army, fortify the lines, and pivot their entire economy and manufacturing base.

I reported it, that was quite possibly one of the dumbest moves I've seen on this board yet.....over some very mundane data.

You realize that Telegram (the social media system) is where most of the pro-Russian crowd hangs out?

You realize that the Russians post tons of FPV drone videos hitting Ukrainian equipment and are not shy about showing Ukrainians getting killed?

Basically:

Twitter = Ukraine
Telegram = Russia

There's some cross over between the two, as both sides notice and steal each other's social media uploads when something "interesting" happens.



Thanks for outing yourself as someone who doesn't actually know anything about the war other than soundbytes. The missiles the Russians are firing now represent about one years' worth of production for them, carefully stockpiled and saved.

Back during the early days of the war in '22, Russian missile activity was steady and constant; not this pattern of "nothing happens in Ukraine (relatively speaking) for months regarding Russian long range missile strikes and then all of a sudden everything is launched at once."



That's the thing. While the Russians (ironically enough) are big about posting factory production footage on the news and social media, the Ukrainians have been rather circumspect about that. Better information war management.



The main deciding factor in this war is artillery shell production -- everyone in the West who counts has been increasing shell production with the intention of sending it to Ukraine -- and foreign shells are now flooding into Ukraine:

Pakistani and Indian (LMAO) shells are being fired by Ukraine
North Korean shells are being fired by Russia

It takes years though to scale up shell production. 2025 is when a lot of Western shell production will be peaking.



The Russian army has pretty much been meat kubed several times over to the point that it's starting to affect domestic Russian politics. All the domestic breakdowns of heating plants in Russia (they use a lot of central heating where one big boiler heats water on an industrial scale to provide heat to several city blocks) and water main breaks happening now in the extreme cold weather are because all the municipal maintenance guys in Russia either were:

A.) Drafted
or
B.) Joined up for a higher salary than municipalities would pay.

...and got turned into mobik meat kubes in Ukraine.

The number floating around for new Mig35's is 6 and supposedly they keep hesitating to fly them over Ukraine because they can't afford to lose one.

So they just keep throwing the old shit at it.

Pretty sure that's what's being done on the ground. Of course this whole drone thing has put a new twist on everything.

Oh man, looks like British AND Ukrainian intelligence have had it wrong this entire time about Russian missile production. Let me guess, you're still one of "20 a month" subscribers?  Something that was reported by multiple western militaries to have been false over a year ago, including Ukraine?




So you have no idea? Why not just say that and stop wasting time?

But somehow that "information war management" isn't factored into the kill numbers, eh?



It doesn't, the Russians already scaled it up well past us.  That "peak" in 2025 is pretty much the US and we are having some serious problems with facilities and HE right now that weren't factored into the plan.

If the Russians really are producing tons of missiles every month, then why do do large scale missile raids only come after prolonged periods of inactivity?

Thanks for highlighting the TTP from a few months ago, try to get with the times. I believe the average gap right now is 3-4 days, for over a month.

How about you go ahead and pull the TS document from the thread so you stop buddy fucking people who come in and don't know it's there.  You know, people with real jobs.

If that's true...then why is Russia resorting to firing North Korean shells, despite severe quality control problems with said North Korean shells resulting in a significant amount of burst tubes for artillery pieces.

PS: The Russians can't produce enough barrels for artillery to keep up with current consumption rates, and that's even before ruined barrels from NK shells are factored in. They've been burning up their pre-war stockpile of tubes.

They literally said why they needed them, to provide a stopgap while they get their factories running. Almost all reporting states they have done so, and that the Korean shell transfer was not enduring.

How are the Ukrainian barrel factories doing? I'd say they are in a much worse spot for that.

Fine; it's gone.

This is a tough pill for the social media warriors to swallow, but 99.9% of what happens in Ukraine on either side does not get reported outward or put on social media.

The # of countries who make 152mm barrels is a lot less than those who make 155mm Barrels.

The # of countries who make 152mm barrels AND are willing to supply Russia with said barrels is a lot less than those who make 155 barrels and are willing to supply Ukraine.

Gee, I wonder why BAE got a contract to restart M777 production earlier this summer?

There are lots of contracts being floated. Nobody has actually put anything out though, and even the money POM'ed into it gets more and more worthless every year while they wait.

The US has ONE factory that makes artillery and tank barrels. One.  A third shift is pretty much the only increase in production possible.

You are correct in one thing, nobody is going to see shit until 2025 at the earliest, and its going to be a trickle. Most of the projects that require expansion are being slow rolled because nobody wants to be left holding the bag when it takes two years to stand up, Ukraine folds, and the orders stop.

Europe has no intention of actually building their own capacity back up.

Ukebros can't help themselves.

After watching the China Virus and Poison Jab + Ukebro phenomenons, I now understand how Charlie Manson and Jim Jones brainwashed their flock.

Meatball is for whoever Soros supports. And Soros already publicly sided with the Ukebros.

I'm no expert, but I follow a ton of accounts and watch the footage.
I've definitely seen far more tanks disabled with mines, artillery, and AGTM's than tank on tank.

You can't attack without tanks, however you can defend without them.

There are legitimate sellers. There are also people who ship straight from China which are obviously fake.

The only legit seller I am aware of is MemorySteelUA.

Of course, I also got one first hand from a wrecked russian tank in Chernihiv







You don't bring 70 year old tanks back into service because your war is going well.



They actually don't.

The numbers are much, much worse than that.

Tanks left outside for decades and exposed to Russian winters don't fare well. They fare even worse when subjected to corrupt logistics officers' sticky fingers.



This was from over a year ago. It hasn't gotten better.

The results on Oryx is what's convinced me the investment the US has made into Ukraine has paid for itself and then some.  This is a golden opportunity to take Russia out of the equation for a while while we deal with China.

All of that hinges on the US being protected from the invasion the feds have been facilitating.  If that means no cash for anyone until the border is secured so be it.

Maybe they can outsource to India or China.

Russia is already taking T90S tanks from a customer's order to use in it's war. These were made for export sales and are not a regular Russian army variant.






3 T90S tanks lost in the Russian winter offensive of 2022/2023 at vuhledar

#Ukraine: Three Russian tanks were destroyed/damaged near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast - apparently by running over anti-tank landmines. pic.twitter.com/AzEJl7Eznb

— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 6, 2023

#Ukraine: A Russian T-90S tank was destroyed by the SBU "Alpha" SSO using munitions dropped from a drone equipped with thermal optics.

A quantity of T-90S tanks, originally intended for export, was instead transferred to the Russian army to partly compensate of losses in armor. pic.twitter.com/0wApHnXlxv

— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 29, 2023

#Ukraine: The first documented capture of the rare Russian T-90S tank by the Ukrainian army - filmed somewhere in #Kherson Oblast.

These tanks, originally intended for export, were instead transferred to the Russian army after the serious armour losses experienced. pic.twitter.com/AIfzVxH0Lh

— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) January 12, 2023

Same propaganda from a year ago. Send money!

While I'm inclined to believe the Russians are or will run out of tanks at some point I know for a fact they are running low on Gonzalos.

I the real surprise for me is at this stage of war is how highly effective mines have been for both sides.  I thought things like plows would have been more effective at cutting lanes in the mine fields.  Both sides are in a nightmare trying to clear through them to maneuver.

Because single mentions are fine, but multiple would likely run afoul of the "listing" clause

Remember when the one pro-Russian member claimed the Ukrainian military would revolt against Zelenskyy in mid 2023 and all that would be left of Ukraine is a sliver of land along the Polish border?

Pepperidge farm remembers

Someone here started posting screen shots of my posts and another member arguing in several threads I went to.

I didn't recall anyone complaining about that.





Ukraine does have some production, albeit clandestine and very limited. They showed a newly manufactured T84 a few months back. The manufacturing of the Bohdana 2s22 in 155mm went up from 1 a month under Reznikov to 6 a month under Umerov along with indigenously produced 122, 152, and 155mm. How much? Obviously not a lot but there is some manufacturing going on clandestinely.



That's why the Europeans have been on a spending spree in regards to not only aid for Ukraine but spending on their own militaries? Leopards are in hot demand, the patriot, Nasams, IRIS T, F35, and Abrams are selling like hot cakes.



What Ukraine defines as a win is different from what can and will happen in reality. Like I said, looking at it factually from an outside perspect surviving with the majority of the nation intact which last I checked is 83% including what Russia already held pre war is a victory. Will Russia gain some land? Yes. Did they get the entire nation as they wanted? No. Are Russian goals accomplished? No. Nato has gotten stronger and the Kremlin now has 800 more miles of Nato borders to worry about. The war has been a defeat already and was lost in the first few months of 2022. Now we are just figuring out where the lines will fall. If Ukraine breaks the Crimean landbridge the war goes from a minor defeat to a major defeat for Russia as the only goal they have been able to accomplish is gone.

The Russian soldiers and warblog commentators themselves are bitter and furious at the amount of losses they have suffered for only taking 17% of the country in a war they were supposed to win in days.



We have no ability to rebuild shells or missiles



Of course this ignores the regeneration efforts from the Czechs, Poles, and the baltics.

This was a crowd funded tank from the CZ that was completed at the end of 2022.



The thomas the tank engine is absolutely ironic

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-czech-tanks-idUSL1N37Y14K/

Czech state firm to begin repairing Ukrainian tanks with Ukroboronprom
Reuters

PRAGUE, June 6 (Reuters) - Czech state firm VOP CZ will begin repairing an unspecified number of T-64 tanks in cooperation with Ukrainian state group Ukroboronprom, helping to supply Ukraine's defence forces against Russia, the Czech defence ministry said on Tuesday.

The Czech Republic has been one of Kyiv's biggest backers since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sending military and other aid from the start.

In February this year, VOP and Ukroboronprom agreed to repair and modernise Soviet-era tanks for the Ukrainian army, the Czech ministry said.

It said the tanks have been in storage for decades and needed to be disassembled and fully restored to be returned to fighting condition.

The number of tanks set for repair was not disclosed.



Ukraine in cooperation with the Czechs are indeed rebuilding tanks from storage so some new tanks will be added to the Ukrainian formations to keep them running.



Probably never. I'm a realist and like to base my arguments in facts that are easily proven.

Reminder: The conditions for a Ukrainian victory aren't the same as the Russian one. Russia is the much, much more powerful nation with millions of soldiers under arms. Ukraine is not nearly as powerful. Russia should have already won. The USA beat saddam in little over a month . Russia still hasn't beaten Zelenskyy.

If Iraq in 2003 had stopped the coalition from taking baghdad and pushed the coalition out of several key cities it would have been a humiliating defeat for the coalition. Iraq already had the no go zone in the Kurdish north and a no fly zone in the south.

The situation is almost identical..yet Saddam was hanging from the neck a year or so later after being tried by the Iraqis. Zelenskyy is still in power and Russia has yet to accomplish the goals they set out to on February 24, 2022.



Attached File


Best comment of the thread



Same. The minefields aren't measured in meters. They're measured in KMs

Task and Purpose channel on YouTube had a great vid on this a month or so ago. Both sides are stacking the Soviet TM-46/57 type mines 3 high. This is enough of an explosion that the mine clearing equipment designed to take 3 or 4 mines out before being rotated to the rear for repair/upfit are only able to take a single hit.. This is another of a dozen reasons the lines will stay static now forever.

Russia is now producing working tanks at about 100-150 new and re manufactured tanks per month. I doubt they will be running out anytime soon.  Ukraine obviously does not have any where close to producing or even repairing that many a month so there is really no comparison.

If you wouldnt have quoted him I wouldnt have seen his remark as I have him blocked for along time now for his "fuck ukraine" and fuck the uke-bois bullshit comments he makes on the regular, I would recommend you do the same.

yep and that is what is killing the use of tanks on the modern battlefield.. they are hurting both russia and Ukraine very bad when it comes to armor losses.  and Russia has an upper hand on manufacturing FPV drones right now but Ukraine is not far behind but is behind

Ukraine has made leaps and bounds when it comes to there domestic defense production, they have signed a ton of contracts for weapon systems that they will build in country and have ramped up there own home brew manufacturing.. They have the skill and technology, remember Ukraine used to be Russias main tank and armor maker.
Ukraine's defense industry as of 2023 employs 300,000 workers within about 500 different companies, of which almost 400 are private companies

"UKRAINE’S LONG-TERM PATH TO SUCCESS: JUMPSTARTING A SELF-SUFFICIENT DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE WITH US AND EU SUPPORT"

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-long-term-path-success-jumpstarting-self-sufficient-defense-industrial-base#:~:text=Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-signs-dozens-joint-production-deals-with-western-defence-firms-2023-12-15/

LOL

Daemon was praying you wouldn’t notice that..

They've stripped the easiest to get out the door tanks first. There are still lots of "tanks" left but those will require more work. Based off the sat images a lot of the tanks that are left are missing turrets and have the engine bays open.

They can still build zero time tanks off of those OR IROAN them. Who knows.

They are sending new, "tier 1" tanks like the T80BVm out the door with export sights that are uncooled and not nearly as effective as the original thales made imagers pre war/early war tanks came with.

This an example of why you may be the worst UkeBro clown, now that Ruck got the hammer.

In nearly two years, I have never posted a “fuck ukraine” or a “fuck the uke-bois”, or even a Fuck Zelensyyyy. To the contrary, I have posted that if I were Zelenskyyyy, I would be doing exactly what he is doing. That said, any man who dances around in high heels like a faggot, for money, has issues.

Even with your limited gray matter, you should be able to conclude that the CINCUAFIGD wouldn’t take the time, out of his busy schedule, to quote a GD drive by fuck Ukraine poster.

My beef has been with Europe, since the beginning. In fact, my beef with Europe goes back much further than this conflict. Anybody reading these threads should be quite aware of that.

Also, that post was in jest and was a poke at the CINCUAFIGD. His post, that you quoted, was a display of density.

And, what kind of p sissy does it take to block someone on an internet forum? Is that like “I’m taking my ball and going home!”

10 individual post screenshots of 10 of the “legion(aires) will be sufficient. That way you stay clear of the COC.

Also, Ukraine has set their definition of winning and they have defined the “win” as expelling Russia from all their territory, including Crimea.

If someone @d me for being pro-Russian I wouldn’t report it because I’m not a little bitch like Ryan, even if it’s a false assertion.

That's why I addressed it 45 seconds later right?

His comment would be true, if it were last fall or earlier.  But it is not remotely true anymore.

For reference, using Oryx. Ukraine lost about 160 tanks during their offensive.

Screenshot from 7/12/23


Current

How long before IS-2 and IS-3 tanks are seen roaming the battlefield?

You guys should really try to not live in the past.

From HUR's Vadym Skibitsky:
-Russia produced ~2 million 122mm/152mm artillery rounds in 2023 and received 1 million 122mm/152mm rounds from North Korea
-Russia produces ~115-130 "strategic" (>350km range) missiles per month
-~330-350 Shahed drones can be produced per month pic.twitter.com/SxTx0k4pvx

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) January 15, 2024

Serial numbers and MFG dates on shot down Russian missiles show that they're 2022-2024 produced missiles - all the pre war RU stock in advanced long range missiles is pretty much gone at this point.

Also, there's been a steadily increasing # of missile failures on the Russian side -- they were always prone to failure compared to US ones; but it's gotten noticeably worse at this point.

Also...if mighty Russia Stronk producing tons of missiles....

...why are the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Russian Federation now firing North Korean KN23/KN24 SRBMs?

Hmm..



How much of that is actually reemanufactured S300 SAM missiles that have been converted to land attack missiles?

S300 in that mode has a 400 km range, enough to be counted as "strategic".

But the problem is the S300 stockpile is a depleting asset; its going to run out eventually, and you can't convert the newer (not crap) S300 stuff because you need those desperately for SAMs.

Those aren't "remanufactured" missiles.  The propellant expires and they use them solely for land attack.  It's their old stock.

Russia has historically been pretty flush with SAMs.  The west is not.




All the reports I have read on open source attribute less than 10 of the 500+ that have been fired since November to be of NK origin.

Are you asserting that your social media sleuthing is now more credible than Ukrainian, British, and US intelligence?

No mention of S300's in that rollup, and they have been pretty lean in land attack use in the past few months.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26745
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html

It's worse than that.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/ukraine_destroys_russian_stalin-era_museum_piece_btr-50p_apc.html



https://twitter.com/praisethesteph/status/1712874425119367238



https://twitter.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1712867191849107695



How bad do you have to be winning (and mass producing tanks) that you have to send APCs designed in 1954 (BTR-50) and unique small production run prototypes (BTR-90) to the battlefield?

It would be like the US bringing back the M75 APC from 1954 and rounding up all the remaining XM8 Buford Armored Gun System prototypes from the 1990s for the Special Military Operation to Decartelize Mexico.

Russia is the big paper bear.

Ever consider that you don't have to root for one team or the other and they are both bad?  

There is nothing good about Russian Imperialism and rooting for it at the expense of hundreds of thousands of lives isn't cool and gives American conservatives a poor look.  You are better off being intellectually honest and point out both the risks of our incompetent and corrupt leadership and the evil of Russian Imperialism as they are both a threat to American citizens.