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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:11:58 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Place your bets ladies and gentlemen Tesla faces major hurdles living up to the Model 3 hype. The 500,000 vehicles Tesla vows to produce next year are nearly six times its 2016 production. Tesla's share price has surged 54 percent since January in anticipation of the Model 3 launch, and Tesla's pricey valuation now exceeds that of traditional rivals like General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co.   |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:17:01 AM EDT
[#2]
The end of the tax subsidies will mark the beginning of the end for Tesla. It's still too dangerous to short the stock though, because it doesn't trade like any normal company. It has a cult-like following of true believers who think Musk is the Edison of our time or something. It will take a LOT of failure before they jump ship.
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:22:08 AM EDT
[#3]
That's fine
Probably the same bulshit people smelled when they said I didn't have a tesla until I had to post pictures with certain things on the web browser. I have an office in Newland nc, Burnsville, spruce pine, sylva, and Cherokee. Shouldn't be too hard for local folks to find me. I spend most of my work time in sylva and spruce pine. Red tesla model s in the parking lot. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:22:45 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not too late to short it.  |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:26:29 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That's fine Probably the same bulshit people smelled when they said I didn't have a tesla until I had to post pictures with certain things on the web browser. I have an office in Newland nc, Burnsville, spruce pine, sylva, and Cherokee. Shouldn't be too hard for local folks to find me. I spend most of my work time in sylva and spruce pine. Red tesla model s in the parking lot. You do sound like the sort who would own a Tesla; and there's also that screen name of yours too. I hope you enjoy your Tesla. 
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:28:15 AM EDT
[#6]
When it gets right down to it, even though internal combustion cars are horrendously inefficient, the price of gas is so cheap that it's hard to beat
a gallon of gas has an incredible amount of energy and it's priced lower than fancy drinking water is. hard to beat 115,000 BTUs for $2.50 regarding tesla: it might be going bankrupt but so was apple and amazon shit happens but the future is all mysterious and cloaked in fog |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:32:42 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it gets right down to it, even though internal combustion cars are horrendously inefficient, the price of gas is so cheap that it's hard to beat a gallon of gas has an incredible amount of energy and it's priced lower than fancy drinking water is. hard to beat 115,000 BTUs for $2.50 regarding tesla: it might be going bankrupt but so was apple and amazon shit happens but the future is all mysterious and cloaked in fog |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:35:56 AM EDT
[#8]
"Tesla will be bankrupt any day now..."
Why is arfcom so bitter towards successful people? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:36:53 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Neither Apple nor Amazon required government subsidies and/or mandates to facilitate sales. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:45:05 AM EDT
[#10]
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In that case, since the cars are selling so damned well, end the government buyer tax credit subsidies immediately. Why should some working class schmoe have to subsidize the purchasers of what you, yourself, admit are "luxury cars"? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Tesla sells more large luxury cars in the US than any other manufacturer, and GD thinks they have a problem with demand. Their problem is trying to scale production at insane levels, not with getting people to buy their cars. Why should some working class schmoe have to subsidize the purchasers of what you, yourself, admit are "luxury cars"? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:49:55 AM EDT
[#11]
So tesla might make most of their money on the mid sized car?
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:52:47 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
"Tesla will be bankrupt any day now..." http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/technology/technology/2017/04/170424_TECH_Musk-InsaneIdeas.jpg.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.jpg Why is arfcom so bitter towards successful people? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:52:54 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
"Tesla will be bankrupt any day now..." http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/technology/technology/2017/04/170424_TECH_Musk-InsaneIdeas.jpg.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.jpg Why is arfcom so bitter towards successful people? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:58:07 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Mostly because our tax dollars have made him rich beyond our wildest dreams. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Mostly because our tax dollars have made him rich beyond our wildest dreams. Quoted:
Because without govt tax breaks and other assistance he'd be bankrupt by now? Even with all that shit they're losing money on every car that rolls of the line. 
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:02:05 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
"Tesla will be bankrupt any day now..." http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/technology/technology/2017/04/170424_TECH_Musk-InsaneIdeas.jpg.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.jpg Why is arfcom so bitter towards successful people? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:03:16 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Neither Apple nor Amazon required government subsidies and/or mandates to facilitate sales. but never the less, the predictions of impending doom are always premature |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:04:19 PM EDT
[#17]
Silly chart
We are fine with subsidies for companies and products we like and not for others. I know there are going to be people that post they don't want subsidies at all but there are no threads railing against those companies and people that complain about tesla subsidies will buy products from those others on the list without batting an eye. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:06:32 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Place your bets ladies and gentlemen Tesla faces major hurdles living up to the Model 3 hype. The 500,000 vehicles Tesla vows to produce next year are nearly six times its 2016 production. Tesla's share price has surged 54 percent since January in anticipation of the Model 3 launch, and Tesla's pricey valuation now exceeds that of traditional rivals like General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Place your bets ladies and gentlemen Tesla faces major hurdles living up to the Model 3 hype. The 500,000 vehicles Tesla vows to produce next year are nearly six times its 2016 production. Tesla's share price has surged 54 percent since January in anticipation of the Model 3 launch, and Tesla's pricey valuation now exceeds that of traditional rivals like General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co. Going into detail how robots and other technology have made the plant very efficient. Tesla started production with 1,000 workers. By 2013, this had risen to 3,000, and to 6,000 people in June 2016.
On August 3, 2016, Tesla announced that it was consistently producing 2,000 vehicles per week at the end of Q2 2016 Until the facility's closure in April 2010, 4,700 workers were employed.
In 1997, NUMMI produced 357,809 cars and trucks, peaking at 428,633 units in 2006. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:17:48 PM EDT
[#19]
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let capitalism work without my tax dollars and then the bitterness will disappear They're not taking $7500 from the tax that cyborg543 paid in, and direct depositing to Elon Musks checking. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:18:59 PM EDT
[#20]
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In about eight years when you have to replace the batteries, you are looking at anywhere between $14,000-$18,000 according to most estimates I have read. That will be a bitter pill for the $35,000 market to swallow. With Americans having an average longer commute why in the world clean diesel technology has never caught on amazes me. I want a portal geared independent 4 motor electric F250 with an Onan diesel generator keeping my batteries topped off. And I want the government to subsidize it lol!!!!! |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:40:06 PM EDT
[#21]
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You do realize the Tax Subsidy is largely people reducing their own personal tax liability, right? They're not taking $7500 from the tax that cyborg543 paid in, and direct depositing to Elon Musks checking. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:41:24 PM EDT
[#22]
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negative CA is going to bail them out.... You could tax the CA people at 100% and still not make a dent. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:43:33 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla sales tanked everywhere subsidies were removed. (lol) https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/20/47392447-15005891020528336.jpg https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/20/47392447-15005891996252072.jpg https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/19/47392447-15005113871544843_origin.jpg Now? You see one maybe once a week. They evaporated. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 12:50:33 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Ok So tesla has 400,000 preorders Let's see how many cancel The credit in the US will be gone by the s of the year most likely How many do you think are going to cancel their orders? We will see I was told tesla would be out of business in 2014 Then 2015, then 2016, I was told the stock would be sub 100$ by this point My firm does 10,000 tax returns I can tell you that a fair number of people can't even use the credit A very high number of them can't use the whole credit. You have to have at least a 7500$ tax liability. We will see So far all of the tesla naysayers have been wrong All of them. I still think it's 50/50 depending on reliability of model 3 Institutional holders own a bunch of the stock They think tesla is here to stay "Scenario A: If the ramp up goes really well (and Elon's tweets were overly cautious) and there is no stockpiling, and/or sales of MS's and MX's are increasing by much more than 10% per quarter, then 200K will be hit sometime in Q4-2017, and the credits are as follows: $7,500 Federal Tax Credit from Car #1 through 03/31/18 $3,750 Federal Tax Credit 04/01/18 through 09/31/18 $1,875 Federal Tax Credit 10/01/18 through 03/31/19 No Federal Tax Credit after 03/31/19 Scenario B: (My current projection) If the ramp up goes per Elon's tweets and they stockpile, or the ramp is slower than Elon's tweets and/or sales of MS's and MX's do not increase by much more than 10% per quarter, then 200K will be hit sometime in Q1-2018, and the credits are as follows: $7,500 Federal Tax Credit from Car #1 through 06/30/18 $3,750 Federal Tax Credit 07/01/18 through 12/31/18 $1,875 Federal Tax Credit 01/01/19 through 06/30/19 No Federal Tax Credit after 06/30/19" The federal $7500 credit carries over for two quarters after the 200k is hit, then ramps down. It is not an immediate cut off at car #200,001. Kharn |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 1:01:17 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
"Tesla will be bankrupt any day now..." http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/technology/technology/2017/04/170424_TECH_Musk-InsaneIdeas.jpg.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.jpg Why is arfcom so bitter towards successful people? Real question is why people fall for his derp and constant goal post moves. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 1:09:35 PM EDT
[#26]
On several of the issues the bottom line seems to be that some people like tesla some don't.
Many don't like the IDEA of tesla. People that own them generally think electric cars are "there" people that don't like the IDEA of tesla think they are not. People that don't like the IDEA of tesla use a lot of the "feelz" in their argument i.e. Longevity of the battery despite evidence to the contrary. (Google 200,000 mile tesla and witness the taxi company that drove people back and forth from LA to Vegas daily and put 200000 miles on the car in short order with minimal battery degradation) That story in and of itself is a fair argument that electric cars are "there". That's a 550 mile round trip (or commute if you want to look at it that way) They did it daily and people paid good money for the ride. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 1:11:56 PM EDT
[#27]
While not nearly at "Twentieth Century Motor Car Corporation" levels of hinky, and I do believe we are witnessing the future of personal travel, this is an example of business supported solely by other people's money.
ETA: I think Tesla's largest drawback is the E.Musk's penchant for the limelight. He likes being a rockstar and that draws good and bad attention to Tesla's operations. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 1:45:56 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
On several of the issues the bottom line seems to be that some people like tesla some don't. Many don't like the IDEA of tesla. People that own them generally think electric cars are "there" people that don't like the IDEA of tesla think they are not. People that don't like the IDEA of tesla use a lot of the "feelz" in their argument i.e. Longevity of the battery despite evidence to the contrary. (Google 200,000 mile tesla and witness the taxi company that drove people back and forth from LA to Vegas daily and put 200000 miles on the car in short order with minimal battery degradation) That story in and of itself is a fair argument that electric cars are "there". That's a 550 mile round trip (or commute if you want to look at it that way) They did it daily and people paid good money for the ride. 
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Posted: 7/29/2017 2:17:13 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Or to hedge your long position with some puts. At today's prices you can hedge every $335 share of Tesla all the way to bankruptcy for a cost of $7.37 worth of puts. It's cheap insurance and covers you for the next critical 18 months. Tesla is an insane stock to be either long or short in. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Not too late to short it. The stock's going to drop when the loss is announced this week. So many people are buying puts, they're too expensive for me. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 3:13:24 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You do realize the Tax Subsidy is largely people reducing their own personal tax liability, right? They're not taking $7500 from the tax that cyborg543 paid in, and direct depositing to Elon Musks checking. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 3:30:22 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Ok So tesla has 400,000 preorders Let's see how many cancel The credit in the US will be gone by the s of the year most likely How many do you think are going to cancel their orders? We will see I was told tesla would be out of business in 2014 Then 2015, then 2016, I was told the stock would be sub 100$ by this point My firm does 10,000 tax returns I can tell you that a fair number of people can't even use the credit A very high number of them can't use the whole credit. You have to have at least a 7500$ tax liability. We will see So far all of the tesla naysayers have been wrong All of them. I still think it's 50/50 depending on reliability of model 3 Institutional holders own a bunch of the stock They think tesla is here to stay But I'd be curious to know how many of the naysayers shorted the stock in 2014, 2015, 2016, or 2017. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 3:32:19 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The tax subsidies are only part of the story. Tesla wouldn't be here today if government mandates didn't force their competitors to buy $hundreds of millions$ in EV credits from them. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 3:37:07 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted:
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Neither Apple nor Amazon required government subsidies and/or mandates to facilitate sales. Your reading comprehension is.....lacking.
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Posted: 7/29/2017 3:46:11 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Or to hedge your long position with some puts. At today's prices you can hedge every $335 share of Tesla all the way to bankruptcy for a cost of $7.37 worth of puts. It's cheap insurance and covers you for the next critical 18 months. Tesla is an insane stock to be either long or short in. Even though it appears the company is on a cash burning, death spiral, there's a whole lot of people on this planet that want to buy Tesla products. Most people that buy the Model S & X are millionaires and the $7,500 tax credit means nothing to them. If it did, luxury vehicles wouldn't sell at all. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 3:58:21 PM EDT
[#35]
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You're forgetting the Model Y, the truck, the semi, the new roadster and solid state batteries that will substantially lower the cost of vehicle batteries and power walls. Even though it appears the company is on a cash burning, death spiral, there's a whole lot of people on this planet that want to buy Tesla products. Most people that buy the Model S & X are millionaires and the $7,500 tax credit means nothing to them. If it did, luxury vehicles wouldn't sell at all. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:05:10 PM EDT
[#36]
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What are you talking about? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:07:31 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tax credits of $7500 mean plenty to millionaires, and the fact that other luxury vehicles are selling without those direct to purchaser subsidies doesn't speak at all for your side of the argument. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:08:43 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla sells more large luxury cars in the US than any other manufacturer, and GD thinks they have a problem with demand. Their problem is trying to scale production at insane levels, not with getting people to buy their cars. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:09:03 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You're forgetting the Model Y, the truck, the semi, the new roadster and solid state batteries that will substantially lower the cost of vehicle batteries and power walls. Even though it appears the company is on a cash burning, death spiral, there's a whole lot of people on this planet that want to buy Tesla products. Most people that buy the Model S & X are millionaires and the $7,500 tax credit means nothing to them. If it did, luxury vehicles wouldn't sell at all. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Or to hedge your long position with some puts. At today's prices you can hedge every $335 share of Tesla all the way to bankruptcy for a cost of $7.37 worth of puts. It's cheap insurance and covers you for the next critical 18 months. Tesla is an insane stock to be either long or short in. Even though it appears the company is on a cash burning, death spiral, there's a whole lot of people on this planet that want to buy Tesla products. Most people that buy the Model S & X are millionaires and the $7,500 tax credit means nothing to them. If it did, luxury vehicles wouldn't sell at all. Like, right now, confirmed tech right now range, not "maybe in 20 years they can- " Range? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:11:39 PM EDT
[#40]
He's betting on the long run and trends in politics and regulations but you have to wonder if he will make it that long, also the major manufacturers will soon take up the cause.
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:48:25 PM EDT
[#41]
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Range on the semi? Like, right now, confirmed tech right now range, not "maybe in 20 years they can- " Range? |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:52:25 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Range on the semi? Like, right now, confirmed tech right now range, not "maybe in 20 years they can- " Range?
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Posted: 7/29/2017 4:53:16 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
He's betting on the long run and trends in politics and regulations but you have to wonder if he will make it that long, also the major manufacturers will soon take up the cause. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 8:23:41 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tax credits of $7500 mean plenty to millionaires, and the fact that other luxury vehicles are selling without those direct to purchaser subsidies doesn't speak at all for your side of the argument. Whether a P100D costs $120,000 or $127,500 doesn't matter to rich people. It's the status symbol price that rich people are willing to pay... |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 8:42:04 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My argument is that you're making my argument. If the cost of luxury vehicles mattered to rich people, rich people wouldn't buy them. Whether a P100D costs $120,000 or $127,500 doesn't matter to rich people. It's the status symbol price that rich people are willing to pay... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Tax credits of $7500 mean plenty to millionaires, and the fact that other luxury vehicles are selling without those direct to purchaser subsidies doesn't speak at all for your side of the argument. Whether a P100D costs $120,000 or $127,500 doesn't matter to rich people. It's the status symbol price that rich people are willing to pay...
It's a hell of an inducement; which is why it's being offered to facilitate sales. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 8:59:14 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You're forgetting the Model Y, the truck, the semi, the new roadster and solid state batteries that will substantially lower the cost of vehicle batteries and power walls. Even though it appears the company is on a cash burning, death spiral, there's a whole lot of people on this planet that want to buy Tesla products. Most people that buy the Model S & X are millionaires and the $7,500 tax credit means nothing to them. If it did, luxury vehicles wouldn't sell at all. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Or to hedge your long position with some puts. At today's prices you can hedge every $335 share of Tesla all the way to bankruptcy for a cost of $7.37 worth of puts. It's cheap insurance and covers you for the next critical 18 months. Tesla is an insane stock to be either long or short in. Even though it appears the company is on a cash burning, death spiral, there's a whole lot of people on this planet that want to buy Tesla products. Most people that buy the Model S & X are millionaires and the $7,500 tax credit means nothing to them. If it did, luxury vehicles wouldn't sell at all. If you think you can answer that, then answer it again for the Semi, and again for the pickup. Any advance in battery technology will be enjoyed by all the manufacturers. Tesla buys all of its batteries from Panasonic. It has no competitive advantage in batteries. The same with Power Walls: they're a highly commodotized product, with the bulk of it built by Panasonic, and with no competitive advantage. I'm sure there are a lot of people who want to buy a Tesla. That's not translating into sales. Model S sales are flat for 7 quarters, and Model X for 4. The demand has plateaued and the S is six years old; it desperately needs a refresh, but that would require more CAPEX that Tesla can't afford. We can argue over who is buying the cars, and why, and what effect the expiration of the $7500 US federal tax credit will have. We wont agree, and it will be a fruitless argument. I simply look to the three most recent places where government incentives to buy Teslas have been removed. In all three cases sales cratered. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 9:04:40 PM EDT
[#47]
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A fully loaded diesel semi can get 5-6mpg on diesel so the electric can't have much range unless it is carrying 60k lbs of batteries. Weight is a huge deal in semis because you are stuck with 80k lb gross vehicle weight limit in most cases. Every pound of vehicle weight reduces cargo capacity by a lb. Drivers are not cheap so you want them moving as much cargo as possible at one time. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 9:14:46 PM EDT
[#48]
Now Tesla is saying the Model 3 with options will be priced up to $60,000. There aren't going to be many buyers for a Prius sized car at that price.
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Posted: 7/29/2017 9:17:18 PM EDT
[#49]
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Now Tesla is saying the Model 3 with options will be priced up to $60,000. There aren't going to be many buyers for a Prius sized car at that price. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 9:20:49 PM EDT
[#50]
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LURCH!! I Knew you would be in here! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Now Tesla is saying the Model 3 with options will be priced up to $60,000. There aren't going to be many buyers for a Prius sized car at that price. 
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