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Posted: 7/29/2017 9:25:20 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Now Tesla is saying the Model 3 with options will be priced up to $60,000. There aren't going to be many buyers for a Prius sized car at that price. The Mars Mission has just recently been moved back as well. IIRC; the first 30 Model 3 cars were supposed to be early "production models" delivered to "customers". Now, they've transmorgrafied into 30 hand built cars delivered to Tesla Employees. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 10:25:04 PM EDT
[#2]
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Now Tesla is saying the Model 3 with options will be priced up to $60,000. There aren't going to be many buyers for a Prius sized car at that price. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 10:27:16 PM EDT
[#3]
$2 gas is a big problem for electric cars.
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Posted: 7/29/2017 10:54:42 PM EDT
[#4]
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$2 gas is a big problem for electric cars. Musk has a problem. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 10:57:01 PM EDT
[#5]
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Democrats in congress and The White House would have resolved that dilemma for Musk with their global warming agenda and their total reluctance to allow Americans access to inexpensive energy. Musk has a problem. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
$2 gas is a big problem for electric cars. Musk has a problem. 
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:20:17 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
More winning. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
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$2 gas is a big problem for electric cars. Musk has a problem. What he got; was a President who withdrew our country from The Paris Global accords and a worldwide oil glut. Good luck Elon. |
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Posted: 7/29/2017 11:29:58 PM EDT
[#7]
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Long dated puts. I don't believe Musk can pull it off. Tesla will need several stock offerings to fund the build out - if sales fall short after initial enthusiasm, it's going to get very problematic. Here's a chart of current hybrid and ev sales, as of June 2017. The Bolt is presently available and close to the same cost as the Model 3. While sales are improving, and it's available in quantity, they don't reveal any big surge of interest in ev's. Granted, the Model 3 has more overall appeal to me than the Bolt (I like the Bolt interior better) and will probably trend higher, I don't think the numbers will come in as expected once the hype wears off. Additionally, Toyota and GM numbers aren't that far off from Tesla, and both could ramp up production if frustrated waiting Tesla customers decide to get an ev sooner than next year or longer. 
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Posted: 7/30/2017 12:51:17 AM EDT
[#8]
Why do you guys hate American cars?
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Posted: 7/30/2017 1:05:26 AM EDT
[#9]
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Range on the semi? Like, right now, confirmed tech right now range, not "maybe in 20 years they can- " Range? I suspect range will be about 600 miles (8 hours driving) and will require a 2,000 kWh supercharging station. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 1:13:09 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla sales tanked everywhere subsidies were removed. (lol) https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/20/47392447-15005891020528336.jpg https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/20/47392447-15005891996252072.jpg https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/19/47392447-15005113871544843_origin.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted:
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if they continue to sell after the credits are gone there are going to there are going to be some really angry people here. They only have about 18,000 vehicles left before it starts phasing out. So I bought a new office 3 years ago. Paid just shy of 1 million $ for it. I made about 195k last year on it. Last year I was still in the hole about 400k A drug company puts a billion $ into r&d for a new drug They sell 2000000 the first 3 years doses a 500k a pop. There is no profit We will see if tesla stays...... https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/20/47392447-15005891020528336.jpg Looking outside the US, the Denmark market is also very instructive as to what will likely happen when subsidies are removed. Electric car dealers were spared a 180% import tax, which applied to gasoline-powered cars. When that policy was reversed, sales plunged. Remarkably, Tesla's sales were hit even harder than the rest, registering a drop of 93%! https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/7/19/47392447-15005113871544843_origin.jpg |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 10:24:31 AM EDT
[#11]
One of those markets was Denmark
The cost now in Denmark without the waiver is 250,000$-300,000 for a tesla It's the sales tax waiver It's different than an ev tax credit. Tesla didn't suffer in ga the same as other ev makers Example Florida is the number 2 state for tesla sales behind California Florida has no incentives for ev purchase Yet they are number 2 Number 3 state is texas I'm not positive about this but every other manufacturer gets a 2500$ credit it because Texas makes it illegal for tesla to sell directly in the state tesla does not qualify It's just a little information to show that 2 of the top three states have no state level ev credit yet tesla sells very well there. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 10:33:17 AM EDT
[#12]
Neither Florida nor Texas has a state income tax from which to offer tax credits.
There are lots of Teslas in my local area of Palm Beach because there are lots of wealthy folks who enjoy their toys and federal tax credits and Teslas are fine for a second or third household car for driving from shopping center to shopping center. BTW: the staged handover of 30 hand built, rather than actual production cars to employees who were originally described as "customers" is nothing more and nothing less than circus. 1948 Tucker redux. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 10:59:36 AM EDT
[#13]
Go back to the info when pre orders started. It was stated by Elon over a year ago that employees got first dibs.
It was slated that way from the initial announcement as a reward to the employees The next 2000 or so are slated form employees as well. The first roadsters were hand built The first 100 or so model s were hand built slowly working in the automation (I think you can see this documented in the mega factory episode on tesla) The first 100 or so model x were hand built slowly working in the automation. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 11:01:55 AM EDT
[#14]
Yes
The availability of a state tax credit has no affect on tesla in Florida or Texas but it means everything in Georgia? What....everyone in Georgia poor? |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 11:19:50 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
One of those markets was Denmark The cost now in Denmark without the waiver is 250,000$-300,000 for a tesla It's the sales tax waiver It's different than an ev tax credit. Tesla didn't suffer in ga the same as other ev makers Example Florida is the number 2 state for tesla sales behind California Florida has no incentives for ev purchase Yet they are number 2 Number 3 state is texas I'm not positive about this but every other manufacturer gets a 2500$ credit it because Texas makes it illegal for tesla to sell directly in the state tesla does not qualify It's just a little information to show that 2 of the top three states have no state level ev credit yet tesla sells very well there. - Perhaps Navigator, 4Runner, F150, and Suburban buyers will decide to buy a Model 3 instead? They won't care about the lost capacity, right? - Or perhaps Corolla and Civic buyers will decide to buy a Model 3? They can afford the extra $25,000, right? |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 11:51:40 AM EDT
[#16]
No, I think similar to model s taking sales from Audi A7/8, Mercedes s class, bmw 6/7 series, Porsche panamara.....
Tesla model s outsells each of these. Model s sales increases roughly match the decreases to thes models I think we will see a similar result to model three getting Mercedes c class, BMW 3, Audi A4/5 If history is any guide that is what my expectation is. If/when model Y comes around that's when I think you will see the corolla market making the choice |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 12:17:56 PM EDT
[#17]
I dont think Tesla will go bankrupt anytime soon
Tesla has a cult following, like Apple I can see a bunch of billionaire venture capitalists pumping money into Tesla to prevent failure |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 3:03:59 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yes The availability of a state tax credit has no affect on tesla in Florida or Texas but it means everything in Georgia? What....everyone in Georgia poor? |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 3:30:44 PM EDT
[#19]
How so?
The argument has been made that tax credits are the only reason tesla sells cars. One of the supporting evidence points was that sales dropped to next to nothing in ga when the state incentive went away. The inference was without the state incentive tesla's don't sell. I merely pointed to states that do not offer a state incentive and that happen to be 2 of the three biggest markets for tesla in the US. It doesn't matter if the state has an income tax. The argument is that tax credits reducing the total cost of the car is a driving sales of tesla. In Texas and fl there is nothing reducing the cost of the car yet they sell at higher rates than many states that do have tax credits. Another argument that can e made is that all of the anti tesla laws in various states more than make up for any credits they get. Google "anti tesla laws" There isn't necessarily a level playing field in regards to tax credits in favor of tesla and other EVs But there are zero laws restricting or llimiting sales by any other manufacturer. In ga specifically tesla by law was only allowed to sell 130 cars a year until recently |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 5:17:23 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The bar keeps moving and the time lines recede; it's Musk's modus operandi. The Mars Mission has just recently been moved back as well. IIRC; the first 30 Model 3 cars were supposed to be early "production models" delivered to "customers". Now, they've transmorgrafied into 30 hand built cars delivered to Tesla Employees. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Now Tesla is saying the Model 3 with options will be priced up to $60,000. There aren't going to be many buyers for a Prius sized car at that price. The Mars Mission has just recently been moved back as well. IIRC; the first 30 Model 3 cars were supposed to be early "production models" delivered to "customers". Now, they've transmorgrafied into 30 hand built cars delivered to Tesla Employees. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 5:36:47 PM EDT
[#21]
Whew lots of naysayers in here and the other thread too:
http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/2017970_How-The-Tesla-Model-3-Drives.html&page=2 Tesla is here to stay. It's not a smoke and mirrors operation but more of a hype machine that delivers, but slowly. $41k for an electric car that has 315 mile range. Now that is creeping into the real world capacity of most cars at ~400 miles. In 2018, the range could start with a 4 in it. Then Tesla will be booming. Smoke and mirrors: look up Farraday Futures, Fisker and do some reading on those guys. Meanwhile, we hear about the Bolt and the leaf being tesla "killers". Are there 500k people signed up to buy them? Nope, they can barely give them away. Naysers, want to bet a PMAG or 2 Tesla will still be in business day 1 4th Quarter 2017? |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 5:38:00 PM EDT
[#22]
Isn't the airline model unsustainable without heavy taxpayer funding? People always bitch about Tesla being taxpayer funded. Yet there is no way that Airlines could be viable without tax dollars going to it.
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Posted: 7/30/2017 6:07:51 PM EDT
[#23]
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Naysers, want to bet a PMAG or 2 Tesla will still be in business day 1 4th Quarter 2017? Jesus, I could hold in a shit longer than that, even after eating at Taco Bell and drinking heavily the night before. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 6:55:04 PM EDT
[#24]
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ALLLLLLLLLLL the way till 4Q 2017? Damn! You sound super confident that they will be around for a "long" time. Jesus, I could hold in a shit longer than that, even after eating at Taco Bell and drinking heavily the night before. Ok so you agree to both bets? Just don't take pics the next morning as you'll ruin this thread!!! |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 6:56:32 PM EDT
[#25]
One likely "long" play by Tesla is once they are building a mid priced car, sell out to a major car manufacturer.
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Posted: 7/30/2017 7:01:00 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No, I think similar to model s taking sales from Audi A7/8, Mercedes s class, bmw 6/7 series, Porsche panamara..... Tesla model s outsells each of these. Model s sales increases roughly match the decreases to thes models I think we will see a similar result to model three getting Mercedes c class, BMW 3, Audi A4/5 If history is any guide that is what my expectation is. If/when model Y comes around that's when I think you will see the corolla market making the choice Add to this the real possibility of Tesla cracking the code of fully autonomous driving, what other industries will be consumed by or built upon that? Can Tesla out-Uber Uber with essentially a software update? Or partner with Amazon to bring same-day delivery to the remaining % of the country? These aren't questions that anyone's asking about Toyota, or GM. They're not even in the discussion. Only with one company are outcomes like this even a remote possibility. He'd have to pull the equivalent of landing a 12-story rocket on it's ass, on a floating barge in the middle of the ocean. If anyone could, it'd be him. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 8:05:03 PM EDT
[#27]
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One likely "long" play by Tesla is once they are building a mid priced car, sell out to a major car manufacturer. |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 8:54:27 PM EDT
[#28]
Some more misleading words from Musk.
https://www.consumerreports.org/tesla-model-3/first-2017-tesla-model-3-rolls-off-line/ |
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Posted: 7/30/2017 9:02:47 PM EDT
[#29]
Well, Tesla has been building and selling electric only cars since 2008, no other car manufacturer can make that statement. Tesla has the largest network of state of the art charging stations, Tesla has products other than cars, Tesla builds batteries they use in the production of their cars, Tesla is ahead of other car manufacturers in the semi autonomous and fully autonomous driving systems.
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Posted: 7/30/2017 11:45:12 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Some more misleading words from Musk. https://www.consumerreports.org/tesla-model-3/first-2017-tesla-model-3-rolls-off-line/ Someone was claiming Tesla had over 300,000 Miderl 3s Pre-ordered. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 12:00:02 AM EDT
[#31]
It's actually 400,000
People in other countries buy cars too |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 12:02:07 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Someone was claiming Tesla had over 300,000 Miderl 3s Pre-ordered. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Some more misleading words from Musk. https://www.consumerreports.org/tesla-model-3/first-2017-tesla-model-3-rolls-off-line/ Someone was claiming Tesla had over 300,000 Miderl 3s Pre-ordered. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 12:23:33 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Science Channel is running an episode on the efficiency of the Tesla Fremont, CA factory. (Previously NUMMI) Going into detail how robots and other technology have made the plant very efficient. Under GM/Toyota management. I'm not sure of the Science Channel infomercial math, but when did 25% more workers producing 75% less cars become a model of efficiency? |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 12:44:15 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
One likely "long" play by Tesla is once they are building a mid priced car, sell out to a major car manufacturer. They lose money on every car. As they make more cars, their losses PER CAR have increased. There's no reason to think that will suddenly do a 180 when it comes time to build Model 3s, and there is a lot of reason to believe it will keep getting worse due to the specifics of why they lose money on every car. They're not selling out to anyone without going through bankruptcy first. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 12:51:20 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Bingo. Add to this the real possibility of Tesla cracking the code of fully autonomous driving, what other industries will be consumed by or built upon that? Can Tesla out-Uber Uber with essentially a software update? Or partner with Amazon to bring same-day delivery to the remaining % of the country? These aren't questions that anyone's asking about Toyota, or GM. They're not even in the discussion. Only with one company are outcomes like this even a remote possibility. He'd have to pull the equivalent of landing a 12-story rocket on it's ass, on a floating barge in the middle of the ocean. If anyone could, it'd be him. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 12:54:22 AM EDT
[#36]
Their debt may have have allowed them to get to "Too big to fail". It'll become another syphon depending on other people's money to operate. Or, it may develop marketable ancillary products useable in other sectors. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Posted: 7/31/2017 1:00:04 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Well, Tesla has been building and selling electric only cars since 2008, no other car manufacturer can make that statement. This may be true, but it doesn't matter so I'm not interested in looking it up. Tesla has the largest network of state of the art charging stations, For now. Several other networks are already under construction. VW is already committed to spend more on their network than Tesla has spent so far on its. Tesla has products other than cars, All with tiny revenues and negative margins, in highly commodotized industries. Or in the case of the solar roof, zero production. Tesla builds batteries they use in the production of their cars, No, Panasonic builds every one of the batteries in every Tesla product. Tesla builds zero batteries and has no competitive advantage in batteries. Tesla is ahead of other car manufacturers in the semi autonomous and fully autonomous driving systems. Not according to the numbers reported by the State of California. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 1:03:56 AM EDT
[#38]
Are the charging stations standardized?
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Posted: 7/31/2017 1:07:09 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Are the charging stations standardized? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Are the charging stations standardized? The short answer is that charging standardization is still a bit of a mess with several competing standards, not all of which are compatible. As for VW's network specifically: The chargers will not be proprietary to VW and use Combined Charging System (CCS), CHAdeMO and open protocols like Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP). |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 1:12:06 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Do you mean in general, all charging networks? Or just the one VW is building? The short answer is that charging standardization is still a bit of a mess with several competing standards, not all of which are compatible. As for VW's network specifically: Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Are the charging stations standardized? The short answer is that charging standardization is still a bit of a mess with several competing standards, not all of which are compatible. As for VW's network specifically: The chargers will not be proprietary to VW and use Combined Charging System (CCS), CHAdeMO and open protocols like Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP). |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 1:15:44 AM EDT
[#41]
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Their processing hardware on board for autonomous driving is less than half as powerful as Nvidia and Mobileye believe will be required for SAE Lever 5 autonomy. Tesla is alone among ALL companies working on autonomous driving in its belief that it can be done without LIDAR. The processing hardware on board for autonomous driving will be be less important than the processing software, and less important than the data collected - two things Tesla is leading in by a large margin, and one that creates an industry-leading virtuous cycle/feedback loop. Tesla is closer to being a software company that makes cars than a car company that writes software, at least moreso than any other auto manufacturer. Much in the same way that software did more to enable SpaceX to leapfrog the old guard space industry by landing rockets than any mechanical engineering competency, software is a founding competency by virtue of Elon's background and experience. Their stock valuation is a high risk gamble, but if prior Elon wins are any indicator (ie: landing fucking rockets and relaunching the damned things), there's an almost reasonable chance of Tesla eating a lot of everyone else's lunch in the long run, and double dipping on the battery game when they're positioned to sell everyone else their powertrains. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 7:25:46 AM EDT
[#42]
You can believe what you like about Tesla's chances of winning the race to an L5 car. The few publicly available sources of objective data show that they're way behind.
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Posted: 7/31/2017 7:46:04 AM EDT
[#43]
You know what the significance of 30 hand built cars placed into the hands of 30 company employees actually means?
Bupkiss. 
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Posted: 7/31/2017 7:59:21 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You know what the significance of 30 hand built cars placed into the hands of 30 company employees actually means? Bupkiss. Other manufacturers do it in private a year before they consider ever delivering the first production car to a customer. Then they use that time and the results of the driving to fix problems with the cars and with the manufacturing process. Tesla thinks it can skip that and start delivering thousands of cars per week to customers just a few months from now. The whole "event" on Friday really was just a show to try and distract from the terrible 2Q17 numbers they'll be releasing in a couple of days. Unless they sold another mountain of government ZEV credits last quarter to prop up the numbers, it's going to be a blood bath. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 9:26:13 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And yet the idiots in the financial press keep calling them customers and not employees. Other manufacturers do it in private a year before they consider ever delivering the first production car to a customer. Then they use that time and the results of the driving to fix problems with the cars and with the manufacturing process. Tesla thinks it can skip that and start delivering thousands of cars per week to customers just a few months from now. The whole "event" on Friday really was just a show to try and distract from the terrible 2Q17 numbers they'll be releasing in a couple of days. Unless they sold another mountain of government ZEV credits last quarter to prop up the numbers, it's going to be a blood bath. What they can actually think they can do is another matter entirely. From alpha testing of 30 hand built units to full production.
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Posted: 7/31/2017 4:15:27 PM EDT
[#46]
Musk issues warning today....."manufacturing hell".
OOPS........ SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of Tesla dropped 3 percent on Monday after Chief Executive Elon Musk warned that the electric carmaker would face "manufacturing hell" as it ramps up production of its new mass-market Model 3 sedan. Tesla is counting on the Model 3 to help turn the cash-losing company into a profitable one and transform it from a niche player to a heavyweight in the automobile industry. Investors already skeptical of Tesla's aggressive growth targets focused on a warning by Musk that early production would be challenging. "We're going to go through at least six months of manufacturing hell," Musk told journalists ahead of the event. He later made similar comments on stage. Investors may get an idea of how "manufacturing hell" will affect Tesla's rate of cash burn when the company posts its quarterly results on Wednesday. The Palo Alto, California company has spent over $2 billion in cash so far this year ahead of the launch. The entire article: https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/201707311350RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN1AG25R-OUSBS_1 |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 5:54:31 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Investors may get an idea of how "manufacturing hell" will affect Tesla's rate of cash burn when the company posts its quarterly results on Wednesday. The Palo Alto, California company has spent over $2 billion in cash so far this year ahead of the launch. Remember: The Model S has never made a penny of profit. The Model X has never made a penny of profit. The Model 3 will begin with, according to Elon himself, "horribly negative margins." There's no reason to think the Model 3 will ever make a penny of profit. They only had about $2B at the beginning of the year and netted just shy of that much again in the dilutive share issue and bond offering in the spring. After the 1H17 cash burn, they're down to somewhere around $2B in cash. In the next year they have over $1B of debt coming due. They need over $2B just to fill their supply chain with enough parts to build the 5000 Model 3s per week that they're guiding for. The bond market will demand junk-level interest rates if they go there to seek the cash they need to keep the lights on. The bonds they issued earlier this year had an effective interest rate of 6.1%. Expect higher rates next time, if the bond market will buy their bonds at all. I expect another round of dillutive share issuing before the end of the year. It will be hyped as necessary to pave the way for the Model Y. In reality it will be used to try and get the Model 3 into production. And then they'll lose money on every one of them that they sell. |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 6:01:06 PM EDT
[#48]
Someone good at math? How many cars would Tesla need to sell to actually turn a profit based on current debt, MSRP per unit, excluding future operating costs. Ballpark...
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Posted: 7/31/2017 6:37:20 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Someone good at math? How many cars would Tesla need to sell to actually turn a profit based on current debt, MSRP per unit, excluding future operating costs. Ballpark... |
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Posted: 7/31/2017 6:41:28 PM EDT
[#50]
I want an electric car that performs well in double-digit below zero temperatures, has all-wheel-drive, can be driven off road, tow at least 5000 pounds, and has at least 300 miles range and can be recharged in remote locations in the middle of nowhere Wyoming.
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