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Link Posted: 8/3/2017 11:37:52 AM EDT
[#1]
Amazon:
Ok I'm open minded to you guys saying Amazon is losing or breaking even money but how do I comprehend 8 quarters profitable and $9billion free cash?

What am I missing?
https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15451726/amazon-q1-2017-earnings-profits-net-income-cash-flow-chart
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 2:12:07 PM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Amazon:
Ok I'm open minded to you guys saying Amazon is losing or breaking even money but how do I comprehend 8 quarters profitable and $9billion free cash?

What am I missing?
https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15451726/amazon-q1-2017-earnings-profits-net-income-cash-flow-chart
View Quote
Amazon as a whole is making money but not in retail. AWS is a champ. Amazon retail gets all the press but AWS makes all the monies. 
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 3:41:29 PM EDT
[#3]
Got it thank you.

Almost seems like Bezos plan is coming true. Start a company breaking even to help fund the true ventures and make real money on something else. Genius. So it is similar to my other examples and Tesla too.
Revenue generators for Amazon:
AWS: 57.1%
General Merchandise: 34.1%
Books, DVDs & Music: 5.9%
Other: 2.8%


Meanwhile, while Tesla goes out of business, the oil companies are looking to add electric chargers to their gas stations. Hopefully enough of you guys are driving your 4,000 Leafs and Bolts to make it worthwhile while 200,000 teslas are up on blocks dead in the water:
https://electrek.co/2017/07/17/shell-ev-fast-charging-station-allego-gas-stations/

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/oil-company-bp-electric-car-charging-gas-station/
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 5:52:58 PM EDT
[#4]
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 6:37:10 PM EDT
[#5]
I'm just gonna put this up here because apparently y'all can't Google and half the numbers quoted here are completely wrong.



What didn't occur to me until I looked this up.  Despite sales being up by 50%, Tesla lost ground to BMW in 2016, up 25,663 compared to 98,125 units.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 7:08:59 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Impossible to say.

The big investment banks own about 65% of the company.  Elon holds about 25%.  That leaves about 10% available to individuals to trade.  That's why the stock swings so hard back and forth day to day, and why it's run up so hard so fast over the last nine months.  There are a lot of unsophisticated investors watching too much CNBC and not reading enough financial statements, and then going out and all chasing that 10% of the company that's available.

As long as the big banks who own two thirds of the company keep getting huge fees for doing another and another and another dillutive share offering, they will.  They risk nothing since the hype machine keeps people chasing that 10% of the company up to crazy prices despite the cash burn and lack of profits.

When those banks sour on the company and start unloading their 66% stake the share price will crater, lines of credit will be called in, and the company will be cut off from new capital.  When that will happen is anyone's guess.  And until then Tesla can keep getting another and another infusions of cash to keep the lights on while attempting to become profitable.

A couple of things we do know:
They lose money on every car they make.
As they make more cars, they lose more money per car.
They now want to increase the cars they're building by 6x, by moving into a lower margin market with a car with fewer luxury amenities on it than some cars costing almost half as much.

A bold move!
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Quoted:
Quoted:



Investors and stock price, that's a whole nother discussion! lunacy.

It appears you are adamant about them going bust but keep avoiding the question, WHEN will they go out of business and close the doors?
Impossible to say.

The big investment banks own about 65% of the company.  Elon holds about 25%.  That leaves about 10% available to individuals to trade.  That's why the stock swings so hard back and forth day to day, and why it's run up so hard so fast over the last nine months.  There are a lot of unsophisticated investors watching too much CNBC and not reading enough financial statements, and then going out and all chasing that 10% of the company that's available.

As long as the big banks who own two thirds of the company keep getting huge fees for doing another and another and another dillutive share offering, they will.  They risk nothing since the hype machine keeps people chasing that 10% of the company up to crazy prices despite the cash burn and lack of profits.

When those banks sour on the company and start unloading their 66% stake the share price will crater, lines of credit will be called in, and the company will be cut off from new capital.  When that will happen is anyone's guess.  And until then Tesla can keep getting another and another infusions of cash to keep the lights on while attempting to become profitable.

A couple of things we do know:
They lose money on every car they make.
As they make more cars, they lose more money per car.
They now want to increase the cars they're building by 6x, by moving into a lower margin market with a car with fewer luxury amenities on it than some cars costing almost half as much.

A bold move!
Indeed!....if you want to lose more money...
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 7:13:38 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
This has to be the stupidest argument the Seekingalpha army vicariously makes through you. There are many reasons Tesla's factory has a lot more employees per car than it used to when it was NUUMI.
2. A $100,000 sport/luxury car obviously requires more labor than an econobox, Has nothing to do with it being electric. An Audi RS7 is going to need a lot more labor to make than a Toyota Carolla.
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Quoted:
I would agree that they're experienced making electric cars.  There's still a difference between making just short of 100k cars in the last year, and guiding that you'll be making cars at a rate of 600k/year just one year from now.  Given their last-in-the-industry number of vehicle turns per year and the cost of the car, they'll need over $2B just to populate their supply chain with parts to ramp up production to that level.

As I've always said, they face incredible challenges with new ones on the horizon and others growing every day.  They have a poor record of execution, and this is a bad time to be trying to build up a car company.  There's a narrow path for Tesla to long-term solvency, but it will require absolute perfect performance and a lot of luck.  I'm betting they don't pull it off.
This has to be the stupidest argument the Seekingalpha army vicariously makes through you. There are many reasons Tesla's factory has a lot more employees per car than it used to when it was NUUMI.
2. A $100,000 sport/luxury car obviously requires more labor than an econobox, Has nothing to do with it being electric. An Audi RS7 is going to need a lot more labor to make than a Toyota Carolla.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 7:26:34 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I find it amusing that a lot of people are nervously hoping to snag a Model 3 before Tesla goes under. Come on, hurry up and get my Model 3 built before things crater.

Then they're going to have a car made by a company that has gone under, and I wonder how fuzzy that's going to make them feel.
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It's my understanding that the first 10,000 assembly line units will be going to Tesla employees as the first 30 hand built Model 3s did.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 7:35:40 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hmmmm, I remember United Launch Alliance being super confident with similar claims about Musk until...

http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2015/12/22/67886861_h41558122_custom-a8f82ee1959f66bcdc3dfe0cf1bf98f4b1ea121d-s900-c85.jpg

Kharn
People like to confuse the man with the company.  Tesla is a gigantic pile of fail, from the powerwall to the solar roof to the cars.  It will not succeed.  SpaceX is a whole different animal.  I have full confidence in its continued success.
So much fail.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html
Which has absolutely no bearing on the ultimate success or failure of the company.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 7:37:02 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Got it thank you.

Almost seems like Bezos plan is coming true. Start a company breaking even to help fund the true ventures and make real money on something else. Genius. So it is similar to my other examples and Tesla too.
Revenue generators for Amazon:
AWS: 57.1%
General Merchandise: 34.1%
Books, DVDs & Music: 5.9%
Other: 2.8%


Meanwhile, while Tesla goes out of business, the oil companies are looking to add electric chargers to their gas stations. Hopefully enough of you guys are driving your 4,000 Leafs and Bolts to make it worthwhile while 200,000 teslas are up on blocks dead in the water:
https://electrek.co/2017/07/17/shell-ev-fast-charging-station-allego-gas-stations/

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/oil-company-bp-electric-car-charging-gas-station/
View Quote


You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right?  The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:05:27 PM EDT
[#11]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I'm just gonna put this up here because apparently y'all can't Google and half the numbers quoted here are completely wrong.

http://i.imgur.com/NeYwWef.png

What didn't occur to me until I looked this up.  Despite sales being up by 50%, Tesla lost ground to BMW in 2016, up 25,663 compared to 98,125 units.
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it doesn't break down M vs non-M production, a huge difference in price within each model.

Kharn
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:11:49 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right?  The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too.
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I wouldn't have guessed that.  According to wikipedia, total worldwide leaf sales through 2015: 201,991.  Doesn't include 2016, or 2017 ytd.  Assuming sales remained flat after 2015, we'd be at 273,804 worldwide lifetime sales today.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:24:02 PM EDT
[#13]
Who wants to talk about the conferance call????


Elon:
What we have ahead of us, of course, is an incredibly difficult production ramp. Nonetheless, I think we've got a great team, and I'm very confident that we will be able to reach a production rate of 10,000 vehicles per week towards the end of next year. And we remain – we believe on track to achieve a 5,000 unit week by the end of this year.
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Reiterating 5k/week by the end of this year, and specifying that it's "A 5,000 unit week."  Tesla has a history of taking out all the stops to make a blowout number and set a record, and then falling back to their normal performance.  See: 3Q16 sales.  Should we expect to see a huge hustle to get 5k Model 3s out the week before Christmas?

A few lines later, still Elon:

But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year.
View Quote
Same thing.  Expect an insane hustle to make it 10k cars in a single week, not to be repeated again for a long time.

Elon:
And unlike, say, for example, the Model X, where the mistake that we made, and I obviously take the prime responsibility here, was having far too much advanced technology in version one of our product. Model X is an incredible car, but it was overreaching for the first-generation of the product.  In the case of Model 3, we're strived hard to simplify and make sure that it has everything essentially to be a fantastic car. 
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Manual mirrors, manual seats, unheated seats. No steering wheel heater.  They certainly are aiming low with the technology.  

That's unfair.  You can have those options.  They raise the price of the car to $49,000.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:34:16 PM EDT
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
it doesn't break down M vs non-M production, a huge difference in price within each model.

Kharn
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BMW doesn't break out M sales in their yearly production numbers, they only give the model totals when they end production.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:43:42 PM EDT
[#15]
FUCK WSJ and their sign in or subscription bullshit

https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-arrives-as-elon-musk-warns-of-manufacturing-hell/


They have to build more than 1400 a day to make the 10,000 a week build. No way. Not even the big 3 can do that with a proven car platform.  I am thinking they are going to belly up and run away with no money to play with. Be like Solindra or some other green energy company.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:44:36 PM EDT
[#16]
Elon:
And then Solar Roof – we have installed and working the Solar Roof tiles. I have it on my house. JB has it on his house. I think we included some of the pictures in the earnings letter.
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It exists!!!    Still no indication of performance, efficiency, etc.

Elon:
And then, we're also thinking hard about, where do we put Gigafactorys three, four, five and six? 
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Elon:
And in cases where we see cost reductions on S and X – those are the cases where we want to pass along some of those cost reductions to customers.
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You do want to make money at some point, correct?

Elon:
Oh, and one thing I wanted to correct. I think in a prior call, we publicly had said that Model Y, or our compact SUV – it's called Model Y. It may or may not be – would be a totally new architecture. Upon the council of my executive team – thank you. Thanks, guys – who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity – much appreciated – the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring its market faster.
Yes. So that will really accelerate our ability to get to Model Y to market faster, because fundamentally people prefer a sedan, people prefer an SUV. And in fact, the SUV market is larger. It's the biggest single product (32:35) I believe in the world.
So, I'd like to thank my executive team for stopping me from being a fool, and yes. The Model Y or whatever the hell will have relatively low technical and production risk as a result. I still think we want to do the crazy thing in the future, but we will punt that until after the compact SUV.
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No THAT'S a big deal!!  The Model Y was going to be a whole new design, new chasis.  It would have required all the design work to be done for another new car.  It would have required a new factory.  A gillion new robots.  Tons of money Tesla simply doesn't have.  By putting it on the same chassis and reusing the Model 3 as much as they can, they can build the Y on the same assembly line as the 3.  "But felrom, there wont be room; they'll be making 10,000 Model 3s a week on that assembly line!"  Well, something has to give.  Either they're not making that many Model 3s because there wont be enough demand to fully utilize the assembly line, or they'll have to build another factory with money they don't have.

Elon, speaking about advances in battery tech:
But, again, you got to make it work in the lab. It doesn't yet work in the lab, it's promising in the lab, a year from the lab to small production. Then you go to large production then you get to cost optimization, these are several years, okay? I wish it were shorter. That's the way it goes. Sorry about that. Yes. So was there -
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Don't expect battery breakthroughs to improve things anytime soon.  It really wouldn't matter anyway; Tesla doesn't make batteries, they buy them all from Panasonic, and have no competitive advantage in batteries.  They wont have any special battery type that isn't available to every other manufacturer.  And anyone with rights to any special technology would be a fool to license it exclusively to Tesla given the companies low production numbers.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 8:56:46 PM EDT
[#17]
Have we talked Tesla being mum on their plans for the new accounting standards?
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 9:02:57 PM EDT
[#18]
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
The 25% Model 3 gross margin target, when will we get there?
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes, so, Deepak want to elaborate on this, but I feel like the point which we are at steady-state 5,000 units a week for Model 3 is about when we reach the 25% gross margin level. So it wouldn't be right when we get to 5,000, because initially when you get to 5,000 a week there's still a lot of overtime. We're still expediting parts from all around the world. So you've got a lot of expedited fees, you've got a lot overtime, and so it takes probably from the point at which you get to the 5,000 a week, it's probably another three or four months before you hit the 25% gross margin. Would you agree Deepak?
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
I agree. Yes, I was just going to be more cautious...
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
It's something like that. It's certainly...
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Yes.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
You need to reach a production level and then optimize at that production level.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Yes, I think ultimately it's a variety of factors including material cost and sell and the efficiencies to achieve at the Gigafactory on ourselves. And we are very confident we will achieve the 25% target, seriously on Model 3.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
For sure, next year. 100%.
View Quote
25% gross margins on the Model 3.  Can they do it?  They've flirted with that level on and off with the S and X.  The 3 is a lower cost car and margins will necessarily be smaller.  It's possible, but I'm very skeptical.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes, and I'd like to give some credit to our suppliers here.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Yes.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
With Roadster and certainly with Model S and to a slight less degree with Model X, we often could not get the top suppliers, and we certainly couldn't get the A-team at the top suppliers.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Right.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
What's great about the Model 3 is we have the A supplier, and we have the A supplier and we have the A-team at the A supplier. I can't tell you how important this is. It makes a massive difference.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Right.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

So just a thank you to all the suppliers that work so hard to get us to this point. There is a lot of credit for any success that we have.
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If you own a Roadster, S, or X, your car wasn't made by the A-team.  lolz

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
At the highest level, scaling generates cash.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah. Absolutely, it does.
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Do these guys bother to read their own financial statements?

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
In the long run as we go up as our balance sheet grows. And just to finish off on your question, we also have liquidity through the lines of credit, our ABL line.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
We've just grown it to $1.9 billion. We have untapped $800 million there.
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Well that's interesting.  Their previous limit on the ABL was $1.25B, meaning they were at $1.1B outstanding.  So many of their physical assets were already heavily tied to the ABL as collateral before, I wonder what they promised to get their credit limit raised.  We'll find out when the 10k and 8k statements hit the SEC website!!!

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes. First of all, I will actually clarify that the numbers of chargers will in fact triple between now and the end of next year. And we're confident that that will address the supercharging needs of S, X and 3. So we'll try to stay ahead of it. 
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No, they wont.  It's a ludicrous claim.  They're badly trailing their last guidance on new chargers, which was to double the system this year.  There's no way they're even making that goal as they're currently only about a quarter of the way there.  And now they're guiding to TRIPLE the number between now and the end of the year.  It's just flat not going to happen.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 9:03:40 PM EDT
[#19]
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Quoted:
Have we talked Tesla being mum on their plans for the new accounting standards?
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I haven't researched it.  Could you brief us?  
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 9:21:18 PM EDT
[#20]
Elon:
but one thing I want to correct from Friday – I don't think it really has much materiality, but I did misspeak at the Journalist Review on Friday. I had said that there were 500,000 net reservations. I did also say that I wasn't sure because I don't follow this number, and this was just a guess. And so we did check to get some precision on this.
So to be more accurate, there have been 518,000 gross reservations for 3, and we have 455,000 net reservations. But those cancellations occurred over the course of more than a year. The net gain since Friday, net of cancellations, has been over 1,800 per day.
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Good number to know.  Only a 12% cancellation rate so far, and net gains since the launch.



Concerning the 30 hand-built cars delivered to employees last week:
Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc.
I mean, it's important to note too that all those people paid full price for their car.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes. Full price. There was no discount internally at all.
Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc.
Exactly.
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I don't think anyone expected that.


David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Hey. Thank you. Thanks for updating with the net reservation number. Actually, I want to follow along those lines on your order rates. You've given us additional color based off of 2Q trends and average weekly orders. Can you share a little bit more maybe what the 1Q and 2Q order rate trends look like for the Model S and the X?
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Not relevant.
Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc.
I don't think that those numbers would be helpful for producing things in the future. 
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L. O. L.   An analyst finally asks a really good question, and they refuse to answer.  Tesla is showing lower overall orders based on the line item for money taken from customers to get the product into production.  Somewhere in their lineup of products during 2Q17 orders have cratered to cause that.  This analyst tries to get them to explain, and they refuse.  We'll find out at the end of 3Q17 when they release production and delivery numbers.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes. This is just because of Model 3 is fundamentally negative gross margin in the very beginning. Because you got a gigantic machine producing – meant for 5,000 vehicles a week. And it's producing a few hundred vehicles a week.
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I thought the machine was meant to produce 10,000 vehicles per week?

Elon:
And then, the coast-to-coast drive, autonomous drive by the end of the year, I believe we're still on track for that. It is certainly possible that I may have egg on my face on that front. But if it is not, at the end of the year, it will be very close.
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There are going to be some epic arguments over that one......   
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 9:47:02 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
FUCK WSJ and their sign in or subscription bullshit

https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-arrives-as-elon-musk-warns-of-manufacturing-hell/


They have to build more than 1400 a day to make the 10,000 a week build. No way. Not even the big 3 can do that with a proven car platform.  I am thinking they are going to belly up and run away with no money to play with. Be like Solindra or some other green energy company.
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It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it."

Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover.

Kharn
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 11:02:00 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it."

Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover.

Kharn
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Multiple assembly lines is not new, it's just uncommon because there's little advantage to it.  The limiting factor in auto assembly plants is almost always the paint shop.  If it's not the paint shop, it's the body shop.  Two body shops and a single assembly line is a lot more common.  The reason there are two assembly lines at Freemont is not due to some genius plan by Musk, it's the original GM layout from the 1960's.  The plant was designed to produce cars and trucks at the same time and therefore has two entirely independent production lines.  So two body shops, two paint shops, and two final assembly lines.  The same layout continues today.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 11:33:36 PM EDT
[#23]
Fremont Factory

Interesting info about the Tesla factory.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 11:41:00 PM EDT
[#24]
not sure which tesla it was but my friend watched one catch fire and burn to a crisp last night.
Link Posted: 8/3/2017 11:46:21 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it."

Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover.

Kharn
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Yep Tesla is employing twice the people to produce about one third the cars of just about any other assembly plant including Mercedes Benz US International in Vance, AL.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 12:14:49 AM EDT
[#26]
Can't really say much more than this:

The Greatest PR Show on Earth

Elon Musk is PT Barnum, Al Gore and Preston Tucker rolled into one person with a little Elmer Gantry thrown in for good measure.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 5:43:27 AM EDT
[#27]
I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension.

Still holding out for the Tesla truck.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 5:59:40 AM EDT
[#28]
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Quoted:
I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension.

Still holding ouot for the Tesla truck.
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Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? 
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 6:21:30 AM EDT
[#29]
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Quoted:
Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? 
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Quoted:
I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension.

Still holding ouot for the Tesla truck.
Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? 
It requires 349,657 flashlight batteries, has a 400 mile range, and takes 36 hours to charge. They start at $750K.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 7:44:13 AM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? 
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They have to produce the Y next.  

As of a couple days ago:
They have 3B in cash.
Guiding for 2B in capex for 2H17.
2.3B accounts payable.
1B Solar City debt coming due.
On track to burn another 400M in Opex in 3q17.
More cash burn in 4q17.

There's no money to build a new factory for a Semi.  They'll build the Y on the 3 assembly line, the same way they build the S and X together.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 8:10:07 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


It requires 349,657 flashlight batteries, has a 400 mile range, and takes 36 hours to charge. They start at $750K.
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Lol. Who's going to buy those? And with the 80,000 GVWR and the weight of the batteries, what are they going to transport using those trucks? Pillows? Chips? Lol 
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 8:14:11 AM EDT
[#32]
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Quoted:
Lol. Who's going to buy those? And with the 80,000 GVWR and the weight of the batteries, what are they going to transport using those trucks? Pillows? Chips? Lol 
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It requires 349,657 flashlight batteries, has a 400 mile range, and takes 36 hours to charge. They start at $750K.
Lol. Who's going to buy those? And with the 80,000 GVWR and the weight of the batteries, what are they going to transport using those trucks? Pillows? Chips? Lol 
You don't understand, plebe.  They redefine the entire experience of trucking, they seem to float around corners like a magic carpet.  They beep and chime and sound completely unlike anything before.  The entire industry will be redefined by the smooth lines, undulating curves, and magical ability to run on electricity, you know, that magic stuff that comes out of the wall!
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 8:56:31 AM EDT
[#33]
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Yep Tesla is employing twice the people to produce about one third the cars of just about any other assembly plant including Mercedes Benz US International in Vance, AL.
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It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it."

Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover.

Kharn
Yep Tesla is employing twice the people to produce about one third the cars of just about any other assembly plant including Mercedes Benz US International in Vance, AL.
MB doesn't do R&D (beyond the test tracks, thanks to free land from the state, but how often are those used vs German tracks?), prototyping, design, or component manufacturing at Vance.

Kharn
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 9:00:51 AM EDT
[#34]
Watch toyota if u want to see a game changer in electric cars.  You need a name that is trusted.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 9:13:26 AM EDT
[#35]
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MB doesn't do R&D (beyond the test tracks, thanks to free land from the state, but how often are those used vs German tracks?), prototyping, design, or component manufacturing at Vance.

Kharn
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What percentage of a Tesla's parts are totally in house production?

Even if all extra 3,000 employees are for R&D then I wonder how that compares to other automakers.

Everyone is also assuming Tesla can convince all their suppliers to spend the money to expand their plants to supply the parts for 500,000 Tesla's a year.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 9:41:35 AM EDT
[#36]
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Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? 
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I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension.

Still holding ouot for the Tesla truck.
Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? 
I'm referring to the pick-up truck, not the semi.

I expect the truck to look similar to the Ridgeline except, powered by an electric drive.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 9:51:50 AM EDT
[#37]
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You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right?  The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too.
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News to me! Thank you for the correction.

Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point.

Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day.

Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver?

Edit: OUCH. Leaf range is 107 miles. So you are driving an eco tin can that looks like a turd mobile and can only go about 100 miles.

Tesla model 3 long range model is now up to 315miles at $41k.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 9:56:09 AM EDT
[#38]
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News to me! Thank you for the correction.

Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point.

Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day.

Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver?
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You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right?  The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too.
News to me! Thank you for the correction.

Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point.

Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day.

Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver?
I've seen lots of leafs, and lots of Telsas.  Mostly in Hawaii, though there are tons of leafs running around Japan, of course.  I'm surprised to not have seen any Teslas in Japan, there are a ton of ferraris, lambos, mazeratis and other high end cars in Tokyo.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 10:06:38 AM EDT
[#39]
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Tesla is the best chance we (USA) have at ever exporting a car again.
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You serious Clark?


   Germany: US$151.9 billion (21.8% of total car exports)
   Japan: $91.9 billion (13.2%)
   United States: $53.8 billion (7.7%)
   Canada: $48.8 billion (7%)
   United Kingdom: $41.3 billion (5.9%)
   South Korea: $37.5 billion (5.4%)
   Spain: $35.6 billion (5.1%)
   Mexico: $31.4 billion (4.5%)
   Belgium: $30.3 billion (4.3%)
   Czech Republic: $18.8 billion (2.7%)
   France: $18.4 billion (2.6%)
   Slovakia: $15.5 billion (2.2%)
   Italy: $15.2 billion (2.2%)
   Thailand: $11.6 billion (1.7%)
   Hungary: $11.1 billion (1.6%)
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 10:11:17 AM EDT
[#40]
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Quoted:


News to me! Thank you for the correction.

Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point.

Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day.

Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver?

Edit: OUCH. Leaf range is 107 miles. So you are driving an eco tin can that looks like a turd mobile and can only go about 100 miles.

Tesla model 3 long range model is now up to 315miles at $41k.
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Has that range been independently verified with a production model??







Link Posted: 8/4/2017 10:17:07 AM EDT
[#41]
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Quoted:


I'm referring to the pick-up truck, not the semi.

I expect the truck to look similar to the Ridgeline except, powered by an electric drive.
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Yes I know you're referring to the pick up truck, but according to Musk the semi was supposed to come before. He even leaked a dark silhouette photo of the semi. 
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 10:19:16 AM EDT
[#42]
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You serious Clark?


   Germany: US$151.9 billion (21.8% of total car exports)
   Japan: $91.9 billion (13.2%)
   United States: $53.8 billion (7.7%)
   Canada: $48.8 billion (7%)
   United Kingdom: $41.3 billion (5.9%)
   South Korea: $37.5 billion (5.4%)
   Spain: $35.6 billion (5.1%)
   Mexico: $31.4 billion (4.5%)
   Belgium: $30.3 billion (4.3%)
   Czech Republic: $18.8 billion (2.7%)
   France: $18.4 billion (2.6%)
   Slovakia: $15.5 billion (2.2%)
   Italy: $15.2 billion (2.2%)
   Thailand: $11.6 billion (1.7%)
   Hungary: $11.1 billion (1.6%)
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Total motor vehicle production is ~12,000,000/y in the US and sales are ~17,500,000.  We are a net-importer (the figure that matters) of about 1/3 or our motor vehicles.

Motor vehicles and Oil have been 2/3rds to 3/4ths of our trade deficit for 40+ years.

Tesla exports about half the cars they make.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 10:38:12 AM EDT
[#43]
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Quoted:


Total motor vehicle production is ~12,000,000/y in the US and sales are ~17,500,000.  We are a net-importer (the figure that matters) of about 1/3 or our motor vehicles.

Motor vehicles and Oil have been 2/3rds to 3/4ths of our trade deficit for 40+ years.

Tesla exports about half the cars they make.
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So they have exported 15 Model 3's?  
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 11:50:00 AM EDT
[#44]
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You're right.  Puts are the way to play Tesla.

The stock's going to drop when the loss is announced this week.  So many people are buying puts, they're too expensive for me. 
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Not too late to short it.
Or to hedge your long position with some puts.  At today's prices you can hedge every $335 share of Tesla all the way to bankruptcy for a cost of $7.37 worth of puts.  It's cheap insurance and covers you for the next critical 18 months.  Tesla is an insane stock to be either long or short in.
You're right.  Puts are the way to play Tesla.

The stock's going to drop when the loss is announced this week.  So many people are buying puts, they're too expensive for me. 
You guys nailed
The stock really took a beating after the earnings report.
Good thing he had the model 3 reveal planned when he did to cover those horrible numbers.

Now
Back to reality. Tesla's numbers turned out better than every "analyst" predicted and much more in line with what the institutional long term holders had in mind. The really big players are betting on tesla.
The shorts have seen the value of their positions no decline over half a billion$

Now that tesla reported their results and they were pretty good vs expectations the argument by some has shifted to "investigate Musk! This is UN possible"

Reality has crashed my world view so the numbers can't be right.
Link Posted: 8/4/2017 11:53:17 AM EDT
[#45]
1. Chili: Beans or no Beans?
2. Caliber: 9mm or 45?
3. Musk: Fraud or diabolical genius?
Link Posted: 8/6/2017 9:03:28 AM EDT
[#46]
Can you guys believe this? Volkswagen doesn't believe teslas financials! They don't see them failing in the short term or the long term. They aren't seeing them just a gnat in the system since tesla has only produced 200,000 cars or so to date.

How dare they see them in the same league as themselves.

VW is delusional??
Link Posted: 8/13/2017 11:13:42 AM EDT
[#47]
Well it looks like the first 30 Model 3's weren't given to "employees" but sold to investors and employees.

They are starting to turn on the autopilot feature. Pretty damn cool!

Look forward to October when the first production run units come off the line. Only 500,000+ orders to fill haha.

Too bad this is all smoke and mirrors. They are going broke and bankrupt right?


Model 3 now with autopilot!!
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