User Panel
Amazon:
Ok I'm open minded to you guys saying Amazon is losing or breaking even money but how do I comprehend 8 quarters profitable and $9billion free cash? What am I missing? https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15451726/amazon-q1-2017-earnings-profits-net-income-cash-flow-chart |
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Amazon: Ok I'm open minded to you guys saying Amazon is losing or breaking even money but how do I comprehend 8 quarters profitable and $9billion free cash? What am I missing? https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15451726/amazon-q1-2017-earnings-profits-net-income-cash-flow-chart View Quote |
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Got it thank you.
Almost seems like Bezos plan is coming true. Start a company breaking even to help fund the true ventures and make real money on something else. Genius. So it is similar to my other examples and Tesla too. Revenue generators for Amazon: AWS: 57.1% General Merchandise: 34.1% Books, DVDs & Music: 5.9% Other: 2.8% Meanwhile, while Tesla goes out of business, the oil companies are looking to add electric chargers to their gas stations. Hopefully enough of you guys are driving your 4,000 Leafs and Bolts to make it worthwhile while 200,000 teslas are up on blocks dead in the water: https://electrek.co/2017/07/17/shell-ev-fast-charging-station-allego-gas-stations/ https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/oil-company-bp-electric-car-charging-gas-station/ |
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, the oil companies are looking to add electric chargers to their gas stations. Hopefully enough of you guys are driving your 4,000 Leafs and Bolts to make it worthwhile while 200,000 teslas are up on blocks dead in the water: https://electrek.co/2017/07/17/shell-ev-fast-charging-station-allego-gas-stations/ https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/oil-company-bp-electric-car-charging-gas-station/ View Quote |
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Impossible to say. The big investment banks own about 65% of the company. Elon holds about 25%. That leaves about 10% available to individuals to trade. That's why the stock swings so hard back and forth day to day, and why it's run up so hard so fast over the last nine months. There are a lot of unsophisticated investors watching too much CNBC and not reading enough financial statements, and then going out and all chasing that 10% of the company that's available. As long as the big banks who own two thirds of the company keep getting huge fees for doing another and another and another dillutive share offering, they will. They risk nothing since the hype machine keeps people chasing that 10% of the company up to crazy prices despite the cash burn and lack of profits. When those banks sour on the company and start unloading their 66% stake the share price will crater, lines of credit will be called in, and the company will be cut off from new capital. When that will happen is anyone's guess. And until then Tesla can keep getting another and another infusions of cash to keep the lights on while attempting to become profitable. A couple of things we do know: They lose money on every car they make. As they make more cars, they lose more money per car. They now want to increase the cars they're building by 6x, by moving into a lower margin market with a car with fewer luxury amenities on it than some cars costing almost half as much. A bold move! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Investors and stock price, that's a whole nother discussion! lunacy. It appears you are adamant about them going bust but keep avoiding the question, WHEN will they go out of business and close the doors? The big investment banks own about 65% of the company. Elon holds about 25%. That leaves about 10% available to individuals to trade. That's why the stock swings so hard back and forth day to day, and why it's run up so hard so fast over the last nine months. There are a lot of unsophisticated investors watching too much CNBC and not reading enough financial statements, and then going out and all chasing that 10% of the company that's available. As long as the big banks who own two thirds of the company keep getting huge fees for doing another and another and another dillutive share offering, they will. They risk nothing since the hype machine keeps people chasing that 10% of the company up to crazy prices despite the cash burn and lack of profits. When those banks sour on the company and start unloading their 66% stake the share price will crater, lines of credit will be called in, and the company will be cut off from new capital. When that will happen is anyone's guess. And until then Tesla can keep getting another and another infusions of cash to keep the lights on while attempting to become profitable. A couple of things we do know: They lose money on every car they make. As they make more cars, they lose more money per car. They now want to increase the cars they're building by 6x, by moving into a lower margin market with a car with fewer luxury amenities on it than some cars costing almost half as much. A bold move! |
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This has to be the stupidest argument the Seekingalpha army vicariously makes through you. There are many reasons Tesla's factory has a lot more employees per car than it used to when it was NUUMI. 2. A $100,000 sport/luxury car obviously requires more labor than an econobox, Has nothing to do with it being electric. An Audi RS7 is going to need a lot more labor to make than a Toyota Carolla. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I would agree that they're experienced making electric cars. There's still a difference between making just short of 100k cars in the last year, and guiding that you'll be making cars at a rate of 600k/year just one year from now. Given their last-in-the-industry number of vehicle turns per year and the cost of the car, they'll need over $2B just to populate their supply chain with parts to ramp up production to that level. As I've always said, they face incredible challenges with new ones on the horizon and others growing every day. They have a poor record of execution, and this is a bad time to be trying to build up a car company. There's a narrow path for Tesla to long-term solvency, but it will require absolute perfect performance and a lot of luck. I'm betting they don't pull it off. 2. A $100,000 sport/luxury car obviously requires more labor than an econobox, Has nothing to do with it being electric. An Audi RS7 is going to need a lot more labor to make than a Toyota Carolla. |
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I find it amusing that a lot of people are nervously hoping to snag a Model 3 before Tesla goes under. Come on, hurry up and get my Model 3 built before things crater. Then they're going to have a car made by a company that has gone under, and I wonder how fuzzy that's going to make them feel. View Quote |
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So much fail. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Hmmmm, I remember United Launch Alliance being super confident with similar claims about Musk until... http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2015/12/22/67886861_h41558122_custom-a8f82ee1959f66bcdc3dfe0cf1bf98f4b1ea121d-s900-c85.jpg Kharn https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html |
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Got it thank you. Almost seems like Bezos plan is coming true. Start a company breaking even to help fund the true ventures and make real money on something else. Genius. So it is similar to my other examples and Tesla too. Revenue generators for Amazon: AWS: 57.1% General Merchandise: 34.1% Books, DVDs & Music: 5.9% Other: 2.8% Meanwhile, while Tesla goes out of business, the oil companies are looking to add electric chargers to their gas stations. Hopefully enough of you guys are driving your 4,000 Leafs and Bolts to make it worthwhile while 200,000 teslas are up on blocks dead in the water: https://electrek.co/2017/07/17/shell-ev-fast-charging-station-allego-gas-stations/ https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/oil-company-bp-electric-car-charging-gas-station/ View Quote You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right? The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too. |
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I'm just gonna put this up here because apparently y'all can't Google and half the numbers quoted here are completely wrong. http://i.imgur.com/NeYwWef.png What didn't occur to me until I looked this up. Despite sales being up by 50%, Tesla lost ground to BMW in 2016, up 25,663 compared to 98,125 units. View Quote Kharn |
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You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right? The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too. View Quote |
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Who wants to talk about the conferance call????
Elon: What we have ahead of us, of course, is an incredibly difficult production ramp. Nonetheless, I think we've got a great team, and I'm very confident that we will be able to reach a production rate of 10,000 vehicles per week towards the end of next year. And we remain – we believe on track to achieve a 5,000 unit week by the end of this year. View Quote A few lines later, still Elon: But what people should absolutely have zero concern about is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. View Quote Elon: And unlike, say, for example, the Model X, where the mistake that we made, and I obviously take the prime responsibility here, was having far too much advanced technology in version one of our product. Model X is an incredible car, but it was overreaching for the first-generation of the product. In the case of Model 3, we're strived hard to simplify and make sure that it has everything essentially to be a fantastic car. View Quote That's unfair. You can have those options. They raise the price of the car to $49,000. |
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FUCK WSJ and their sign in or subscription bullshit
https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-arrives-as-elon-musk-warns-of-manufacturing-hell/ They have to build more than 1400 a day to make the 10,000 a week build. No way. Not even the big 3 can do that with a proven car platform. I am thinking they are going to belly up and run away with no money to play with. Be like Solindra or some other green energy company. |
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Elon:
And then Solar Roof – we have installed and working the Solar Roof tiles. I have it on my house. JB has it on his house. I think we included some of the pictures in the earnings letter. View Quote Elon: And then, we're also thinking hard about, where do we put Gigafactorys three, four, five and six? View Quote Elon: And in cases where we see cost reductions on S and X – those are the cases where we want to pass along some of those cost reductions to customers. View Quote Elon: Oh, and one thing I wanted to correct. I think in a prior call, we publicly had said that Model Y, or our compact SUV – it's called Model Y. It may or may not be – would be a totally new architecture. Upon the council of my executive team – thank you. Thanks, guys – who reeled me back from the cliffs of insanity – much appreciated – the Model Y will in fact be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring its market faster.
Yes. So that will really accelerate our ability to get to Model Y to market faster, because fundamentally people prefer a sedan, people prefer an SUV. And in fact, the SUV market is larger. It's the biggest single product (32:35) I believe in the world. So, I'd like to thank my executive team for stopping me from being a fool, and yes. The Model Y or whatever the hell will have relatively low technical and production risk as a result. I still think we want to do the crazy thing in the future, but we will punt that until after the compact SUV. View Quote Elon, speaking about advances in battery tech: But, again, you got to make it work in the lab. It doesn't yet work in the lab, it's promising in the lab, a year from the lab to small production. Then you go to large production then you get to cost optimization, these are several years, okay? I wish it were shorter. That's the way it goes. Sorry about that. Yes. So was there - View Quote |
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Have we talked Tesla being mum on their plans for the new accounting standards?
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Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
The 25% Model 3 gross margin target, when will we get there? Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. Yes, so, Deepak want to elaborate on this, but I feel like the point which we are at steady-state 5,000 units a week for Model 3 is about when we reach the 25% gross margin level. So it wouldn't be right when we get to 5,000, because initially when you get to 5,000 a week there's still a lot of overtime. We're still expediting parts from all around the world. So you've got a lot of expedited fees, you've got a lot overtime, and so it takes probably from the point at which you get to the 5,000 a week, it's probably another three or four months before you hit the 25% gross margin. Would you agree Deepak? Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. I agree. Yes, I was just going to be more cautious... Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. It's something like that. It's certainly... Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. Yes. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. You need to reach a production level and then optimize at that production level. Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. Yes, I think ultimately it's a variety of factors including material cost and sell and the efficiencies to achieve at the Gigafactory on ourselves. And we are very confident we will achieve the 25% target, seriously on Model 3. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. For sure, next year. 100%. View Quote Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes, and I'd like to give some credit to our suppliers here. Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. Yes. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. With Roadster and certainly with Model S and to a slight less degree with Model X, we often could not get the top suppliers, and we certainly couldn't get the A-team at the top suppliers. Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. Right. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. What's great about the Model 3 is we have the A supplier, and we have the A supplier and we have the A-team at the A supplier. I can't tell you how important this is. It makes a massive difference. Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. Right. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. So just a thank you to all the suppliers that work so hard to get us to this point. There is a lot of credit for any success that we have. View Quote Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
At the highest level, scaling generates cash. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. Yeah. Absolutely, it does. View Quote Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
In the long run as we go up as our balance sheet grows. And just to finish off on your question, we also have liquidity through the lines of credit, our ABL line. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. Yes. Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. We've just grown it to $1.9 billion. We have untapped $800 million there. View Quote Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes. First of all, I will actually clarify that the numbers of chargers will in fact triple between now and the end of next year. And we're confident that that will address the supercharging needs of S, X and 3. So we'll try to stay ahead of it. View Quote |
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Elon:
but one thing I want to correct from Friday – I don't think it really has much materiality, but I did misspeak at the Journalist Review on Friday. I had said that there were 500,000 net reservations. I did also say that I wasn't sure because I don't follow this number, and this was just a guess. And so we did check to get some precision on this.
So to be more accurate, there have been 518,000 gross reservations for 3, and we have 455,000 net reservations. But those cancellations occurred over the course of more than a year. The net gain since Friday, net of cancellations, has been over 1,800 per day. View Quote Concerning the 30 hand-built cars delivered to employees last week: Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc.
I mean, it's important to note too that all those people paid full price for their car. Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. Yes. Full price. There was no discount internally at all. Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc. Exactly. View Quote David Tamberrino - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Hey. Thank you. Thanks for updating with the net reservation number. Actually, I want to follow along those lines on your order rates. You've given us additional color based off of 2Q trends and average weekly orders. Can you share a little bit more maybe what the 1Q and 2Q order rate trends look like for the Model S and the X? Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc. Not relevant. Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc. I don't think that those numbers would be helpful for producing things in the future. View Quote Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yes. This is just because of Model 3 is fundamentally negative gross margin in the very beginning. Because you got a gigantic machine producing – meant for 5,000 vehicles a week. And it's producing a few hundred vehicles a week. View Quote Elon: And then, the coast-to-coast drive, autonomous drive by the end of the year, I believe we're still on track for that. It is certainly possible that I may have egg on my face on that front. But if it is not, at the end of the year, it will be very close. View Quote |
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FUCK WSJ and their sign in or subscription bullshit https://johnib.wordpress.com/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-arrives-as-elon-musk-warns-of-manufacturing-hell/ They have to build more than 1400 a day to make the 10,000 a week build. No way. Not even the big 3 can do that with a proven car platform. I am thinking they are going to belly up and run away with no money to play with. Be like Solindra or some other green energy company. View Quote Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover. Kharn |
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It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it." Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover. Kharn View Quote |
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not sure which tesla it was but my friend watched one catch fire and burn to a crisp last night.
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It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it." Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover. Kharn View Quote |
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Can't really say much more than this:
The Greatest PR Show on Earth Elon Musk is PT Barnum, Al Gore and Preston Tucker rolled into one person with a little Elmer Gantry thrown in for good measure. |
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I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension.
Still holding out for the Tesla truck. |
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I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension. Still holding ouot for the Tesla truck. View Quote |
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Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension. Still holding ouot for the Tesla truck. |
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Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? View Quote As of a couple days ago: They have 3B in cash. Guiding for 2B in capex for 2H17. 2.3B accounts payable. 1B Solar City debt coming due. On track to burn another 400M in Opex in 3q17. More cash burn in 4q17. There's no money to build a new factory for a Semi. They'll build the Y on the 3 assembly line, the same way they build the S and X together. |
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It requires 349,657 flashlight batteries, has a 400 mile range, and takes 36 hours to charge. They start at $750K. View Quote |
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Lol. Who's going to buy those? And with the 80,000 GVWR and the weight of the batteries, what are they going to transport using those trucks? Pillows? Chips? Lol View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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It requires 349,657 flashlight batteries, has a 400 mile range, and takes 36 hours to charge. They start at $750K. |
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Yep Tesla is employing twice the people to produce about one third the cars of just about any other assembly plant including Mercedes Benz US International in Vance, AL. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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It helps when you're not constrained to a single production line by "the way we've always done it." Plus even Subaru managed to build 350k Imprezas for 2012 when they anticipated selling 30k with the new body style makeover. Kharn Kharn |
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Watch toyota if u want to see a game changer in electric cars. You need a name that is trusted.
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MB doesn't do R&D (beyond the test tracks, thanks to free land from the state, but how often are those used vs German tracks?), prototyping, design, or component manufacturing at Vance. Kharn View Quote Even if all extra 3,000 employees are for R&D then I wonder how that compares to other automakers. Everyone is also assuming Tesla can convince all their suppliers to spend the money to expand their plants to supply the parts for 500,000 Tesla's a year. |
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Isn't the self driving semi supposed to come next? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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I don't think anybody was expecting the Model Y to be built on anything other than the Model 3 platform; being that it's essentially a Model 3 with a higher roof-line and suspension. Still holding ouot for the Tesla truck. I expect the truck to look similar to the Ridgeline except, powered by an electric drive. |
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You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right? The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too. View Quote Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point. Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day. Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver? Edit: OUCH. Leaf range is 107 miles. So you are driving an eco tin can that looks like a turd mobile and can only go about 100 miles. Tesla model 3 long range model is now up to 315miles at $41k. |
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News to me! Thank you for the correction. Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point. Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day. Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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You do know that Nissan has sold massively more leafs than tesla has sold cars, right? The sales figures are continuing to climb year after year, too. Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point. Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day. Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver? |
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Tesla is the best chance we (USA) have at ever exporting a car again. View Quote Germany: US$151.9 billion (21.8% of total car exports) Japan: $91.9 billion (13.2%) United States: $53.8 billion (7.7%) Canada: $48.8 billion (7%) United Kingdom: $41.3 billion (5.9%) South Korea: $37.5 billion (5.4%) Spain: $35.6 billion (5.1%) Mexico: $31.4 billion (4.5%) Belgium: $30.3 billion (4.3%) Czech Republic: $18.8 billion (2.7%) France: $18.4 billion (2.6%) Slovakia: $15.5 billion (2.2%) Italy: $15.2 billion (2.2%) Thailand: $11.6 billion (1.7%) Hungary: $11.1 billion (1.6%) |
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News to me! Thank you for the correction. Have you personally ever seen one on the road? I know i haven't nor have i heard about new innovations on the leaf, autonomous packages on it, nor any details but hear "it's an eco car" selling point. Meanwhile, we see nearly every color combo make and model of Teslas on the roadway every single day. Maybe the leafs are downtown commuter car style which people park and the Teslas are a daily driver? Edit: OUCH. Leaf range is 107 miles. So you are driving an eco tin can that looks like a turd mobile and can only go about 100 miles. Tesla model 3 long range model is now up to 315miles at $41k. View Quote |
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I'm referring to the pick-up truck, not the semi. I expect the truck to look similar to the Ridgeline except, powered by an electric drive. View Quote |
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You serious Clark? Germany: US$151.9 billion (21.8% of total car exports) Japan: $91.9 billion (13.2%) United States: $53.8 billion (7.7%) Canada: $48.8 billion (7%) United Kingdom: $41.3 billion (5.9%) South Korea: $37.5 billion (5.4%) Spain: $35.6 billion (5.1%) Mexico: $31.4 billion (4.5%) Belgium: $30.3 billion (4.3%) Czech Republic: $18.8 billion (2.7%) France: $18.4 billion (2.6%) Slovakia: $15.5 billion (2.2%) Italy: $15.2 billion (2.2%) Thailand: $11.6 billion (1.7%) Hungary: $11.1 billion (1.6%) View Quote Motor vehicles and Oil have been 2/3rds to 3/4ths of our trade deficit for 40+ years. Tesla exports about half the cars they make. |
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Total motor vehicle production is ~12,000,000/y in the US and sales are ~17,500,000. We are a net-importer (the figure that matters) of about 1/3 or our motor vehicles. Motor vehicles and Oil have been 2/3rds to 3/4ths of our trade deficit for 40+ years. Tesla exports about half the cars they make. View Quote |
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You're right. Puts are the way to play Tesla. The stock's going to drop when the loss is announced this week. So many people are buying puts, they're too expensive for me. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Not too late to short it. The stock's going to drop when the loss is announced this week. So many people are buying puts, they're too expensive for me. The stock really took a beating after the earnings report. Good thing he had the model 3 reveal planned when he did to cover those horrible numbers. Now Back to reality. Tesla's numbers turned out better than every "analyst" predicted and much more in line with what the institutional long term holders had in mind. The really big players are betting on tesla. The shorts have seen the value of their positions no decline over half a billion$ Now that tesla reported their results and they were pretty good vs expectations the argument by some has shifted to "investigate Musk! This is UN possible" Reality has crashed my world view so the numbers can't be right. |
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1. Chili: Beans or no Beans?
2. Caliber: 9mm or 45? 3. Musk: Fraud or diabolical genius? |
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Can you guys believe this? Volkswagen doesn't believe teslas financials! They don't see them failing in the short term or the long term. They aren't seeing them just a gnat in the system since tesla has only produced 200,000 cars or so to date.
How dare they see them in the same league as themselves. VW is delusional?? |
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Well it looks like the first 30 Model 3's weren't given to "employees" but sold to investors and employees.
They are starting to turn on the autopilot feature. Pretty damn cool! Look forward to October when the first production run units come off the line. Only 500,000+ orders to fill haha. Too bad this is all smoke and mirrors. They are going broke and bankrupt right? Model 3 now with autopilot!! |
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