Tesla Begins Alpha Testing of Model 3 With First 30 Hand Built Cars - Page 7

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Tesla Begins Alpha Testing of Model 3 With First 30 Hand Built Cars (Page 7 of 8)

Posted: 8/2/2017 8:46:00 PM EDT

[#1]

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But only ~15k 6 and 7 series BMWs per year, the price competitors to the S and X.

Kharn

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The BMW 6/7 series and MB S class are also not those companies bread and butter. They are essentially halo cars that are meant to function as a real world test bed for the lastet technologies not keep their financials looking good.

Tesla is trying to follow that model but they have yet to get through the teething problems of true mass production of an extremely complex product. IMHO the model 3 will either solidify Tesla as a real mass production automaker or it will sink them.

Posted: 8/2/2017 8:47:00 PM EDT

[#2]

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My bad that adds 18K, more vehicles produced last year.

Still rookie numbers.

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Tesla has two models if you don't include the Model 3

My bad that adds 18K, more vehicles produced last year.

Still rookie numbers.

they're outselling the company you claim as their competitor in the appropriate market segment and you say they're rookie numbers?

Kharn

Posted: 8/2/2017 8:49:41 PM EDT

[#3]

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The BMW 6/7 series and MB S class are also not those companies bread and butter. They are essentially halo cars that are meant to function as a real world test bed for the lastet technologies not keep their financials looking good.

Tesla is trying to follow that model but they have yet to get through the teething problems of true mass production of an extremely complex product. IMHO the model 3 will either solidify Tesla as a real mass production automaker or it will sink them.

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Quoted:
But only ~15k 6 and 7 series BMWs per year, the price competitors to the S and X.

Kharn

The BMW 6/7 series and MB S class are also not those companies bread and butter. They are essentially halo cars that are meant to function as a real world test bed for the lastet technologies not keep their financials looking good.

Tesla is trying to follow that model but they have yet to get through the teething problems of true mass production of an extremely complex product. IMHO the model 3 will either solidify Tesla as a real mass production automaker or it will sink them.

And how many expect a 6/7 or S to need those testbed electronics and features fixed by the dealer regularly and to go to absolute shit after the warranty is up?

Kharn

Posted: 8/2/2017 8:53:16 PM EDT

[#4]

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And how many expect a 6/7 or S to need those testbed electronics and features fixed by the dealer regularly and to go to absolute shit after the warranty is up?

Kharn

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To be fair, most people.

Look at the prices of ten year old Mercedes and BMW anything.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:08:48 PM EDT

[#5]

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A Camry won't change lanes if you use the turn signal...

Kharn

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The negative:

Burned $1.16B during the quarter, to end with about $3B on hand.
Liabilities rose to almost $20B. That's debt. Remember, it has to be repaid, refinanced at ever higher rates, or discharged in bankruptcy.
Guiding for $2B in capex in the 2H17.
Automotive margins shrunk.
Energy margins shrunk.
Customer deposits declined overall.

The positive:
Sold $100M of government-mandated ZEV credits to profitable car companies.
Model 3 getting 1800 deposits/day in the last week.

If one day they get to the point where they could clear $5000 on every car they sell, they'd only need to sell 4M cars from that point to counter the debt they've built just to today.

Everything is riding on how well they can sell a $44,000 car with cloth upholstery, manual mirrors, and manual seats. If you want power mirrors and seats, leather, a color other than black, and the same Level 2 autonomy as a Toyota Camry, it'll cost you $55,000. Mass market!!

A Camry won't change lanes if you use the turn signal...

Kharn

Tesla L2 requires you to keep a hand on the wheel. Either you keep one hand on the wheel and the other uses the turn signal to change lanes, or you use your hand that's already on the wheel to change lanes. For a $24k upcharge over a comparably trimmed Camry, I'm not sure what that "feature" gets me.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:13:12 PM EDT

[#6]

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they're outselling the company you claim as their competitor in the appropriate market segment and you say they're rookie numbers?

Kharn

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You're comparing Tesla's bread and butter with the top end BMW. Compare company vs company, Tesla's $1.5B gross income vs BMWs $22.7B, or the $94B in BMW sales vs the $7B of Tesla.

Want to compare the 18k Tesla Xs versus the 47k BMW X5s (those are just the US numbers) last year?

BMW made more X5s alone last year than Tesla's entire production of both models. So YES Tesla is producing rookie numbers. Because they beat out one niche model of a company doesn't make them manufacturing pros.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:16:37 PM EDT

[#7]

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To be fair, most people.

Look at the prices of ten year old Mercedes and BMW anything.

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7 series and S class resales drop like a rock.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:18:13 PM EDT

[#8]

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Tesla L2 requires you to keep a hand on the wheel. Either you keep one hand on the wheel and the other uses the turn signal to change lanes, or you use your hand that's already on the wheel to change lanes. For a $24k upcharge over a comparably trimmed Camry, I'm not sure what that "feature" gets me.

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The negative:

Burned $1.16B during the quarter, to end with about $3B on hand.
Liabilities rose to almost $20B. That's debt. Remember, it has to be repaid, refinanced at ever higher rates, or discharged in bankruptcy.
Guiding for $2B in capex in the 2H17.
Automotive margins shrunk.
Energy margins shrunk.
Customer deposits declined overall.

The positive:
Sold $100M of government-mandated ZEV credits to profitable car companies.
Model 3 getting 1800 deposits/day in the last week.

If one day they get to the point where they could clear $5000 on every car they sell, they'd only need to sell 4M cars from that point to counter the debt they've built just to today.

Everything is riding on how well they can sell a $44,000 car with cloth upholstery, manual mirrors, and manual seats. If you want power mirrors and seats, leather, a color other than black, and the same Level 2 autonomy as a Toyota Camry, it'll cost you $55,000. Mass market!!

A Camry won't change lanes if you use the turn signal...

Kharn

Tesla L2 requires you to keep a hand on the wheel. Either you keep one hand on the wheel and the other uses the turn signal to change lanes, or you use your hand that's already on the wheel to change lanes. For a $24k upcharge over a comparably trimmed Camry, I'm not sure what that "feature" gets me.

For Tesla it is not continuous, just often enough to show you're still alive by touching the wheel when it beeps at you. BMW's wheel touch timeline is far more obnoxious and you must hold the wheel nearly continuously while it is supposedly driving for you.

And I learned how to flick turn signals with my pinkie or index finger while the rest of my hand stayed on the wheel decades ago. Try it sometime.

Kharn

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:20:36 PM EDT

[#9]

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You're comparing Tesla's bread and butter with the top end BMW. Compare company vs company, Tesla's $1.5B gross income vs BMWs $22.7B, or the $94B in BMW sales vs the $7B of Tesla.

Want to compare the 18k Tesla Xs versus the 47k BMW X5s (those are just the US numbers) last year?

BMW made more X5s alone last year than Tesla's entire production of both models. So YES Tesla is producing rookie numbers. Because they beat out one niche model of a company doesn't make them manufacturing pros.

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+1

I deal with a lot of car plants at work. The logistics involved in turning out over a thousand vehicles a shift is staggering. The cash it takes to maintain a plant that can do that is staggering. The amount of process engineering and tooling to do it is staggering.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:22:42 PM EDT

[#10]

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They lose money on every car sold. They will lose money on every model 3 sold, too. How does having a large order backlog help them?

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If their backlog was only 500 cars you would be screaming they had no demand and they are a fraud?

They'll succeed in some capacity. Even if it means a big-money company (Apple?) or some like this scooping them up for their technology and manufacturing pushing for level 5 vehicles. It's much cheaper then starting from scratch.

What's your timeline for them "failing?"

Back in the spring it was July 1 they were going to be bust.

Last year it was January 1 going to be bust. It's never ending with you guys.

Now they have actually delivered 30 cars, yes beta by hand but it sure proves that it's not Tucker part 2 NOR are they Farraday futures or Fisker.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:27:08 PM EDT

[#11]

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If their backlog was only 500 cars you would be screaming they had no demand and they are a fraud?

They'll succeed in some capacity. Even if it means a big-money company (Apple?) or some like this scooping them up for their technology and manufacturing pushing for level 5 vehicles. It's much cheaper then starting from scratch.

What's your timeline for them "failing?"

Back in the spring it was July 1 they were going to be bust.

Last year it was January 1 going to be bust. It's never ending with you guys.

Now they have actually delivered 30 cars, yes beta by hand but it sure proves that it's not Tucker part 2 NOR are they Farraday futures or Fisker.

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Look at their financials (discussed at length in this very thread). The irrational exuberance of idiot investors may be boosting their stock price/valuation, but they are billions in debt and digging deeper every day. In laymans terms, they are "busted".

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:28:14 PM EDT

[#12]

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What do you think happens to the pre orders when the cars aren't showing up? .

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Nothing happens as they haven't given any delivery dates on pre-orders. You will be emailed when your pre-order car is in the queue then it's a 6 week delivery and the money starts the process. Nobody is hitting the panic button. It's going to take time and they have been up front with that.

I know of several people that are in line. Life goes on as they are driving their existing vehicles until it's time to officially order their model 3. Then they all said they would sell their cars. No biggie. My sister will be buying one once they are delivering and filling orders 3 months out.

My friend has a Model S that I ride in often. I've never been in anything like that ever. Pretty damn amazing car as he put it on ludicrous mode. Then we rode around in auto-pilot mode hands off. Amazing but not worth $125k.

He charges it at home once or twice a week; charges it at the office once when he remembers. Often, he'll go to lunch near the charging station as there are several nice places to eat for a business lunch. No big deal.

I'm slated to scoop up a S or X in the future but just not this year.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:30:28 PM EDT

[#13]

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Look at their financials (discussed at length in this very thread). The irrational exuberance of idiot investors may be boosting their stock price/valuation, but they are billions in debt and digging deeper every day. In laymans terms, they are "busted".

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Investors and stock price, that's a whole nother discussion! lunacy.

It appears you are adamant about them going bust but keep avoiding the question, WHEN will they go out of business and close the doors?

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:30:38 PM EDT

[#14]

The "Experts" have been saying that Tesla will be going under "any day now" or "the next quarterly report will sink Tesla" but yet, here they are, still building cars

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:32:43 PM EDT

[#15]

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You're comparing Tesla's bread and butter with the top end BMW. Compare company vs company, Tesla's $1.5B gross income vs BMWs $22.7B, or the $94B in BMW sales vs the $7B of Tesla.

Want to compare the 18k Tesla Xs versus the 47k BMW X5s (those are just the US numbers) last year?

BMW made more X5s alone last year than Tesla's entire production of both models. So YES Tesla is producing rookie numbers. Because they beat out one niche model of a company doesn't make them manufacturing pros.

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Quoted:
they're outselling the company you claim as their competitor in the appropriate market segment and you say they're rookie numbers?

Kharn

You're comparing Tesla's bread and butter with the top end BMW. Compare company vs company, Tesla's $1.5B gross income vs BMWs $22.7B, or the $94B in BMW sales vs the $7B of Tesla.

Want to compare the 18k Tesla Xs versus the 47k BMW X5s (those are just the US numbers) last year?

BMW made more X5s alone last year than Tesla's entire production of both models. So YES Tesla is producing rookie numbers. Because they beat out one niche model of a company doesn't make them manufacturing pros.

How many BMW X5 Ms sold last year? The normal X5 is less than $60k, the M is $96k and comparable to the X in both rarity and price.

There's no point making non-"rookie numbers" of cars/SUVs if there are insufficient buyers for them. Otherwise people will claim you're doomed for having too many days worth of production on hand.

Kharn

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:33:10 PM EDT

[#16]

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Investors and stock price, that's a whole nother discussion! lunacy.

It appears you are adamant about them going bust but keep avoiding the question, WHEN will they go out of business and close the doors?

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I'm not some savant who claims to be able to predict the future. Anybody with half a brain can see that Tesla has almost zero chance of becoming profitable, ever. How long they will continue to sputter along, building a handful of cars and burning billions of dollars in the process, is anybody's guess.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:33:12 PM EDT

[#17]

“It’s an amazing car, but we’re going through six months of manufacturing hell. It’s going to be pretty great, but it’s going to be quite a challenge to build this car,” he said.

“Floods, fires, tornadoes, ships sink, if anything interrupts supply chains, that will interrupt the production." ~ ELON MUSK

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:51:19 PM EDT

[#18]

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Nothing happens as they haven't given any delivery dates on pre-orders. You will be emailed when your pre-order car is in the queue then it's a 6 week delivery and the money starts the process. Nobody is hitting the panic button. It's going to take time and they have been up front with that.

I know of several people that are in line. Life goes on as they are driving their existing vehicles until it's time to officially order their model 3. Then they all said they would sell their cars. No biggie. My sister will be buying one once they are delivering and filling orders 3 months out.

My friend has a Model S that I ride in often. I've never been in anything like that ever. Pretty damn amazing car as he put it on ludicrous mode. Then we rode around in auto-pilot mode hands off. Amazing but not worth $125k.

He charges it at home once or twice a week; charges it at the office once when he remembers. Often, he'll go to lunch near the charging station as there are several nice places to eat for a business lunch. No big deal.

I'm slated to scoop up a S or X in the future but just not this year.

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At current production levels they will deliver the first 500,000 orders they already have sometime in early 2022 if they devot all their production to the model 3 and that's if they had started rolling model 3's off the line this morning. They will of course increase production capacity once they actually start rolling the 3 off the line but not the 450% they need to with the money they have before sometime around 2024 according to Morgan Stanley.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:55:27 PM EDT

[#19]

Adam Jonas is a badass. Super nice guy to talk to. He did admit to us he drove a mini-van!!

http://insideevs.com/morgan-stanley-predicts-low-tesla-model-3-deliveries-2017/

Looks like 10k per week is a realistic goal in 2018. That's stout.

Posted: 8/2/2017 9:58:04 PM EDT

[#20]

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I'm not some savant who claims to be able to predict the future. Anybody with half a brain can see that Tesla has almost zero chance of becoming profitable, ever. How long they will continue to sputter along, building a handful of cars and burning billions of dollars in the process, is anybody's guess.

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Investors and stock price, that's a whole nother discussion! lunacy.

It appears you are adamant about them going bust but keep avoiding the question, WHEN will they go out of business and close the doors?

I'm not some savant who claims to be able to predict the future. Anybody with half a brain can see that Tesla has almost zero chance of becoming profitable, ever. How long they will continue to sputter along, building a handful of cars and burning billions of dollars in the process, is anybody's guess.

It may be Tesla is being floated to ensure they remain or will be the de facto industry standard.

ETA: I haven't the ability to quantify what that might mean but it must have some value. I would imagine foreign market competition (and domestic) would want that torch to carry.

Posted: 8/2/2017 10:42:57 PM EDT

[#21]

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Brilliant idea; get Musk on the phone right away.

Just kidding.

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One slow charger per lighting circuit enabled only when the lights are off. That circuit is sitting idle half the time anyway.

Brilliant idea; get Musk on the phone right away.

Just kidding.

Well shit, there go my hopes and dreams of impressing Musk by stating the obvious.

Posted: 8/2/2017 10:52:33 PM EDT

[#22]

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How many BMW X5 Ms sold last year?

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How many BMW X5 Ms sold last year?

Over 166K worldwide

The normal X5 is less than $60k, the M is $96k and comparable to the X in both rarity and price.

Yeah having an efficient production line and large production runs allows the costs to be lower. You aren't going to claim the Tesla X is a higher quality, more capable SUV than the X5 are you?

There's no point making non-"rookie numbers" of cars/SUVs if there are insufficient buyers for them

So they lack customers and production capability. Does that sound like a winning formula?

Posted: 8/2/2017 11:01:22 PM EDT

[#23]

That bipolar stressed out nutbag is praying that Trump pushes through tax reform so Apple can bring all that cash home and buy tesla. Best outcome possible for him, if he works it right Apple gets the shit show and musk get to retain his image as a revolutionary.

I suppose bezos could write that check too...but as much as I don't like his politics he does know how to get shit done. He probably can see that tesla is in trouble.

Posted: 8/2/2017 11:37:38 PM EDT

[#24]

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That bipolar stressed out nutbag is praying that Trump pushes through tax reform so Apple can bring all that cash home and buy tesla. Best outcome possible for him, if he works it right Apple gets the shit show and musk get to retain his image as a revolutionary.

I suppose bezos could write that check too...but as much as I don't like his politics he does know how to get shit done. He probably can see that tesla is in trouble.

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Bezos hates Musk, he wouldn't piss on Musk of he were on fire, and Musk would never sell to him unless the only alternative were jail. Any big car manufacturer would buy him out before then.

They've be feuding for years because of SpaceX vs Blue Origin. Bezos is the also-ran of return to launch pad rockets, except his designs don't have enough delta V to orbit, only go straight up and technically enter space.

Kharn

Posted: 8/3/2017 12:06:31 AM EDT

[#25]

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That bipolar stressed out nutbag is praying that Trump pushes through tax reform so Apple can bring all that cash home and buy tesla. Best outcome possible for him, if he works it right Apple gets the shit show and musk get to retain his image as a revolutionary.

I suppose bezos could write that check too...but as much as I don't like his politics he does know how to get shit done. He probably can see that tesla is in trouble.

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Why would apple want any part of that shitshow? Their product line is obscenely overpriced consumer gadgets, if they sold a model S it would be $500K.

Posted: 8/3/2017 12:53:35 AM EDT

[#26]

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But only ~15k 6 and 7 series BMWs per year, the price competitors to the S and X.

Kharn

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Did BMW lose money on every one of those cars they sold?

Posted: 8/3/2017 12:58:37 AM EDT

[#27]

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The "Experts" have been saying that Tesla will be going under "any day now" or "the next quarterly report will sink Tesla" but yet, here they are, still building cars

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On whose dime ?

Too big to fail ?

Posted: 8/3/2017 7:40:46 AM EDT

[#28]

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Investors and stock price, that's a whole nother discussion! lunacy.

It appears you are adamant about them going bust but keep avoiding the question, WHEN will they go out of business and close the doors?

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Impossible to say.

The big investment banks own about 65% of the company. Elon holds about 25%. That leaves about 10% available to individuals to trade. That's why the stock swings so hard back and forth day to day, and why it's run up so hard so fast over the last nine months. There are a lot of unsophisticated investors watching too much CNBC and not reading enough financial statements, and then going out and all chasing that 10% of the company that's available.

As long as the big banks who own two thirds of the company keep getting huge fees for doing another and another and another dillutive share offering, they will. They risk nothing since the hype machine keeps people chasing that 10% of the company up to crazy prices despite the cash burn and lack of profits.

When those banks sour on the company and start unloading their 66% stake the share price will crater, lines of credit will be called in, and the company will be cut off from new capital. When that will happen is anyone's guess. And until then Tesla can keep getting another and another infusions of cash to keep the lights on while attempting to become profitable.

A couple of things we do know:
They lose money on every car they make.
As they make more cars, they lose more money per car.
They now want to increase the cars they're building by 6x, by moving into a lower margin market with a car with fewer luxury amenities on it than some cars costing almost half as much.

A bold move!

Posted: 8/3/2017 7:47:32 AM EDT

[#29]

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Did BMW lose money on every one of those cars they sold?

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But only ~15k 6 and 7 series BMWs per year, the price competitors to the S and X.

Kharn

Did BMW lose money on every one of those cars they sold?

Before or after warranty work?

Kharn

Posted: 8/3/2017 8:17:36 AM EDT

[#30]

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Why would apple want any part of that shitshow? Their product line is obscenely overpriced consumer gadgets, if they sold a model S it would be $500K.

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Because Apple has a serious innovation problem, they can only milk the same sheep so many times...although they are stunningly good at it. Even at 500k I bet there are people that would buy it because it was the first iCAR. Apple also has an enormous shitpile of cash and a public desire to get into the automotive space. Or they did when they thought hildog was going to be president. Now, maybe not so much. Maybe the best idea is to let musk drive himself into the Looney bin trying to stand up a major automotive business in a year with not enough money...let him fail, buy it cheap and run it the last 50 feet to the finish line. That's what I'd do. GM,Ford,Toyoda...volvo...they need non ICE cars here pretty quick. Somebody will scoop it up, much like it's namesake tesla is a good idea that doesn't get executed well. Executing in manufacturing isn't all that much fun..it takes the right people with the right personalities to chase all the little details.

Posted: 8/3/2017 8:45:33 AM EDT

[#31]

@XD341 nailed it.

Growth is the answer.

The big boys are playing the long game to be the biggest and baddest.

You can't sell small widgets forever. Services and bigger widgets are the answers.

Amazon: buys Whole Foods. Amazon is a book seller only? Not in the long game. There is even talk Amazon will be scooping up a pharmacy chain for a pharmaceutical play. Think about it in the future: you want to buy something, Amazon has EVERYTHING and it could be delivered to you in the same day

Google: AI, information and data. They want to advertise to you as you ride in an autonomous car. Meanwhile, they'll be selling the advertisements to others. Meanwhile, they will own the car too.

Tesla: Same style plan, they stumble and falter. Uber-Lyft (insert tech Company) or even any auto manufacturer? anyone steps in and hits the ground running with Teslas software/firmware/cars.

Musk is a winner and makes things happen. Logic says he's got a plan to turn the corner and make a profit. He just hasn't posted it to ar15.com!!

Remember when Amazon was "losing money" and "not making a profit"? How many years did that go along?

Posted: 8/3/2017 8:46:33 AM EDT

[#32]

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not reading enough financial statements

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I pored over it yesterday on Tesla's web site.

It's hideous.

This reminds me of the high flying claims of many tech stocks from the 1990's, and the Pied Piper messaging from CEOs.

Everything is hinged to the flawless execution of the Model 3 and Teslas reputation as a growth stock.

When growth slows, these type of stocks get massively crushed.

I believe Tesla won't make their production numbers, and demand will also tail off.

Six to nine months should reveal the trend, one way or the other.

Tesla is running out of room to execute.

It's a casino stock, and I keep seeing danger each time I dig deeper into the company.

There's easier stocks to figure out and preserve investors capital.

Posted: 8/3/2017 8:49:31 AM EDT

[#33]

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Over 166K worldwide

Yeah having an efficient production line and large production runs allows the costs to be lower. You aren't going to claim the Tesla X is a higher quality, more capable SUV than the X5 are you?

So they lack customers and production capability. Does that sound like a winning formula?

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How many BMW X5 Ms sold last year?

Over 166K worldwide

The normal X5 is less than $60k, the M is $96k and comparable to the X in both rarity and price.

Yeah having an efficient production line and large production runs allows the costs to be lower. You aren't going to claim the Tesla X is a higher quality, more capable SUV than the X5 are you?

There's no point making non-"rookie numbers" of cars/SUVs if there are insufficient buyers for them

So they lack customers and production capability. Does that sound like a winning formula?

166k X5 Ms worldwide?

Not X5s of any variety, M package. They haven't sold 150k X5 Ms in a decade, much less a single year.

I'm not looking at capabilities or performance, simply price of a reasonably equipped Model X ($100k per Tesla's website, delivery in 14 days) and looking for the closest BMW price equivalent.

The number of consumers looking for a $100k SUV is not enormous, and they have numerous choices, X5 M(<10k/yr), Escalade (40k/yr between multiple options), Cayenne GTS(7k/yr), etc. But Tesla is making "rookie numbers" at 20k/yr for the Model X in the same price range.

Kharn

Posted: 8/3/2017 9:23:44 AM EDT

[#34]

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@XD341 nailed it.

Growth is the answer.

The big boys are playing the long game to be the biggest and baddest.

You can't sell small widgets forever. Services and bigger widgets are the answers.

Amazon: buys Whole Foods. Amazon is a book seller only? Not in the long game. There is even talk Amazon will be scooping up a pharmacy chain for a pharmaceutical play. Think about it in the future: you want to buy something, Amazon has EVERYTHING and it could be delivered to you in the same day

Google: AI, information and data. They want to advertise to you as you ride in an autonomous car. Meanwhile, they'll be selling the advertisements to others. Meanwhile, they will own the car too.

Tesla: Same style plan.

Musk is a winner and makes things happen. Logic says he's got a plan to turn the corner and make a profit. He just hasn't posted it to ar15.com!!

Remember when Amazon was "losing money" and "not making a profit"? How many years did that go along?

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You had me until the end. Amazon, the giant retailer that we all know is still losing money. They are trying to grow large enough to skim the thinnest of profits off volume and economies of fucking enormous scale. But they still haven't, Amazon web services, which is an old fashioned, boring, production based "factory" of data centers makes all the money.

They do one thing, better than anybody. If not for AWS being extremely profitable Amazon retail wouldn't be the world beating, game changing revolution that it is widely thought to be. Amazon's apparent success has changed the perception of investors, people like bezos, musk, Tim cook are given rockstar status and the fundamentals are less important. After all, bezos changed the entire retail world, cook runs the gadget world, musk changed space flight...he can just as easily change the automotive world....right? Except space flight is a niche, 4 or 5 companies doing what...20 or 30 launches a year worldwide? Automotive is one of the most insanely competitive, process engineered, complex high volume process humans do. It is hard core, no shit, chasing seconds out of each of 10,000 steps kind of work. It's boring, monotonous, repetitive and demanding. It's not something musk is going to do well. He needs to steal some senior managers from Toyota or one of the other major players. I'd feel much better if he did hire a major name from an existing auto company and step away. He's a big picture guy...big picture guys make terrible execution guys....and don't get me started on actual design engineering...

Posted: 8/3/2017 9:35:10 AM EDT

[#35]

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The "Experts" have been saying that Tesla will be going under "any day now" or "the next quarterly report will sink Tesla" but yet, here they are, still building cars

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~~Trump~~ Tesla is going to drop out any day now

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:32:19 AM EDT

[#36]

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They'll succeed in some capacity. Even if it means a big-money company (Apple?) or some like this scooping them up for their technology and manufacturing pushing for level 5 vehicles. It's much cheaper then starting from scratch.

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Buying a company out of bankruptcy for their tech is not the same as a company succeeding.

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:33:28 AM EDT

[#37]

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You had me until the end. Amazon, the giant retailer that we all know is still losing money. They are trying to grow large enough to skim the thinnest of profits off volume and economies of fucking enormous scale. But they still haven't, Amazon web services, which is an old fashioned, boring, production based "factory" of data centers makes all the money.

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Read my last post on page one about Amazon.

Amazon was founded in 1994 and had positive free cash flow at least as early as 2001, maybe earlier.

Tesla was founded in 2003 and has never had positive free cash flow.

It's a critical distinction to understand before trying to compare the two companies or make any claims about Tesla reinvesting profits into its business in order to grow.

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:35:01 AM EDT

[#38]

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Buying a company out of bankruptcy for their tech is not the same as a company succeeding.

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They'll succeed in some capacity. Even if it means a big-money company (Apple?) or some like this scooping them up for their technology and manufacturing pushing for level 5 vehicles. It's much cheaper then starting from scratch.

Buying a company out of bankruptcy for their tech is not the same as a company succeeding.

Additionally, Tesla stockholders would not consider it a success.

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:37:55 AM EDT

[#39]

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Impossible to say.

The big investment banks own about 65% of the company. Elon holds about 25%. That leaves about 10% available to individuals to trade. That's why the stock swings so hard back and forth day to day, and why it's run up so hard so fast over the last nine months. There are a lot of unsophisticated investors watching too much CNBC and not reading enough financial statements, and then going out and all chasing that 10% of the company that's available.

As long as the big banks who own two thirds of the company keep getting huge fees for doing another and another and another dillutive share offering, they will. They risk nothing since the hype machine keeps people chasing that 10% of the company up to crazy prices despite the cash burn and lack of profits.

When those banks sour on the company and start unloading their 66% stake the share price will crater, lines of credit will be called in, and the company will be cut off from new capital. When that will happen is anyone's guess. And until then Tesla can keep getting another and another infusions of cash to keep the lights on while attempting to become profitable.

A couple of things we do know:
They lose money on every car they make.
As they make more cars, they lose more money per car.
They now want to increase the cars they're building by 6x, by moving into a lower margin market with a car with fewer luxury amenities on it than some cars costing almost half as much.

A bold move!

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Where do I sign up for your newsletter?

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:38:26 AM EDT

[#40]

I find it amusing that a lot of people are nervously hoping to snag a Model 3 before Tesla goes under. Come on, hurry up and get my Model 3 built before things crater.

Then they're going to have a car made by a company that has gone under, and I wonder how fuzzy that's going to make them feel.

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:39:53 AM EDT

[#41]

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Remember when Amazon was "losing money" and "not making a profit"? How many years did that go along?

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Go back a few pages in this thread. This has been covered.

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:42:32 AM EDT

[#42]

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You had me until the end. Amazon, the giant retailer that we all know is still losing money. They are trying to grow large enough to skim the thinnest of profits off volume and economies of fucking enormous scale. But they still haven't, Amazon web services, which is an old fashioned, boring, production based "factory" of data centers makes all the money.

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A friends family owns an Amazon 'distribution center' (or whatever they call them).

Amazon may not be 'making money', but their cash spigot is making some people a LOT of money.

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:43:29 AM EDT

[#43]

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Irrelevant. Its how many cars can the company put out. They are putting out several different models and have huge numbers going out.

Right now Tesla has 1 model (hopefully 2 soon) and their production numbers with just 1 vehicle being built aren't there - not even in the ballpark.

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But only ~15k 6 and 7 series BMWs per year, the price competitors to the S and X.

Kharn

Irrelevant. Its how many cars can the company put out. They are putting out several different models and have huge numbers going out.

Right now Tesla has 1 model (hopefully 2 soon) and their production numbers with just 1 vehicle being built aren't there - not even in the ballpark.

You don't even know how many models they produce yet you're trying to talk down on TSLA. Lol

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:48:34 AM EDT

[#44]

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People like to confuse the man with the company. Tesla is a gigantic pile of fail, from the powerwall to the solar roof to the cars. It will not succeed. SpaceX is a whole different animal. I have full confidence in its continued success.

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Hmmmm, I remember United Launch Alliance being super confident with similar claims about Musk until...

http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2015/12/22/67886861_h41558122_custom-a8f82ee1959f66bcdc3dfe0cf1bf98f4b1ea121d-s900-c85.jpg

Kharn

People like to confuse the man with the company. Tesla is a gigantic pile of fail, from the powerwall to the solar roof to the cars. It will not succeed. SpaceX is a whole different animal. I have full confidence in its continued success.

So much fail.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html

Posted: 8/3/2017 10:59:02 AM EDT

[#45]

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Where do I sign up for your newsletter?

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His stuff is all FUD copypasta from SeekingAlpha written by shorts (who are now losing their shirts) vested in the company failing, so you can probably find it there.

Posted: 8/3/2017 11:08:58 AM EDT

[#46]

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His stuff is all FUD copypasta from SeekingAlpha written by shorts (who are now losing their shirts) vested in the company failing, so you can probably find it there.

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Where do I sign up for your newsletter?

His stuff is all FUD copypasta from SeekingAlpha written by shorts (who are now losing their shirts) vested in the company failing, so you can probably find it there.

Even if it is, it humorous in a way that yours is not.

Posted: 8/3/2017 11:14:32 AM EDT

[#47]

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I would agree that they're experienced making electric cars. There's still a difference between making just short of 100k cars in the last year, and guiding that you'll be making cars at a rate of 600k/year just one year from now. Given their last-in-the-industry number of vehicle turns per year and the cost of the car, they'll need over $2B just to populate their supply chain with parts to ramp up production to that level.

As I've always said, they face incredible challenges with new ones on the horizon and others growing every day. They have a poor record of execution, and this is a bad time to be trying to build up a car company. There's a narrow path for Tesla to long-term solvency, but it will require absolute perfect performance and a lot of luck. I'm betting they don't pull it off.

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This has to be the stupidest argument the Seekingalpha army vicariously makes through you. There are many reasons Tesla's factory has a lot more employees per car than it used to when it was NUUMI.

1. Tesla is growing fast. Sales/production of cars has been growing ~50% per year for a long while. Tesla has sold almost as many cars in the first half of this year as it has in the entirety of 2015.
2017ytd: 47,077
2016: 76,297
2015: 50,658
2014: 31,655
2013: 22,442
2012: 2,650

This means you consistently need a labor force sized for FUTURE production, not today's static production levels, and if your growing 50% per year that is a lot of extra employees. ANd it is gearing up more a major increase to 500,000/y by late next year.

2. A $100,000 sport/luxury car obviously requires more labor than an econobox, Has nothing to do with it being electric. An Audi RS7 is going to need a lot more labor to make than a Toyota Carolla.

3. Tesla is far more vertically integrated (SpaceX too) than most other car companies, and a far larger chunk of the value added occurs at the Fremont facility than previously under Toyota/GM. Most modern car plants only have final assembly, Engine and Transmission building (a huge chunk of final cost) usually occurs at other plants, especially the old NUUMI plant.

4. This is Tesla only manufacturing facility, so a lot of prototyping, R&D, etc occurs there, and Tesla (like SpaceX) likes to have all their workers work near each other to be able to bring products to market faster.

Posted: 8/3/2017 11:17:02 AM EDT

[#48]

"Fail" means different things to different people.

As a consumer, I don't give a shit who owns the company, who rescues it or if they are losing cash.

I care:
Can you deliver what I'm asking for?
Can you support my warranty?
Is there going to be critical mass in the support market if you go under?

I don't give a shit if the stock is $1,000 or $1.

AND now the stock is up another $22 this morning. Wild.

Posted: 8/3/2017 11:37:30 AM EDT

[#49]

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This means you consistently need a labor force sized for FUTURE production, not today's static production levels,

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This means you consistently need a labor force sized for FUTURE production, not today's static production levels,

Their labor force is MORE than when Toyota ran the plant while they are producing far fewer vehicles.

and if your growing 50% per year that is a lot of extra employees.

50% a year sounds great till you look at the actual numbers - see my comparison to other niche companies/vehicles.

ANd it is gearing up more a major increase to 500,000/y by late next year.

someone drank the Flavor-aid. You're not going from current production levels to 500K in a year.

2. A $100,000 sport/luxury car obviously requires more labor than an econobox,

Based on what empirical data? If he wants to turn out the numbers it will have to use less labor, and consider that EVs are far simpler mechanically than ICE vehicles it should take less labor. This should be setup like a Kaiser ship building facility during WW2, not a Bently production line.

An Audi RS7 is going to need a lot more labor to make than a Toyota Carolla.

Now you're comparing two ICE vehicles. An RS7 is mechanically more complex than the Corolla, with it's quatto drive compared to the FWD of the Corolla, while still retaining all the needs of an ICE power plant.

3. Tesla is far more vertically integrated (SpaceX too) than most other car companies, and a far larger chunk of the value added occurs at the Fremont facility than previously under Toyota/GM.

That may be true, but it doesn't seem to be helping profitability or production. We get the concept and the idea has merit, but having merit on paper vs having merit on the financials are two different things.

Posted: 8/3/2017 11:37:37 AM EDT

[#50]

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So much fail.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hedge-funds-set-to-lose-hundreds-of-millions-on-wrong-way-bet-against-tesla.html

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The same shit happened in 1998 and 2006 and then the market turned. Shorts are difficult to time and extremely risky, especially when the market is not rational.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Tesla Begins Alpha Testing of Model 3 With First 30 Hand Built Cars (Page 7 of 8)

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