User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
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Posted: 7/12/2019 9:05:19 PM EDT
[#1]
You might see landlords adding EV stalls on new construction, but very few will bother with it on existing buildings for a long time. The housing market in SoCal is so lopsidedly in the landlord's favor, we have no pressing need to offer EV stations. There are far more people looking for apartments than there are available units. Why would I invest money on EV stalls when there are literally hundreds of people clamoring to fill a single vacancy the moment I post the unit for rent?
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Posted: 7/13/2019 12:32:09 PM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 7/13/2019 1:03:50 PM EDT
[#3]
I live in Reno.
I’m the past week I have interviewed two employees from Tesla looking for new jobs. They both pretty much said the same thing. People are getting canned and laid off left and right, so they see the writing on the wall. Both of them say the employees are sure the Gigafactory will be closing down on the Tesla portion. Wife’s coworker dates a dude who works for Tesla. A while back he, and several other engineers who worked at the Gigafactory got relocated to their California location. Talking to a vendor out there he said the employees are down and all talking about what they are going to do after they shut down. Take that for what it’s worth, but it’s what I’ve been hearing locally. |
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Posted: 7/13/2019 1:15:16 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryI was thinking the opposite looking at prices yesterday. July 2021 $50 strike puts are over $6. Last summer before the funding secured mess, January 2020 $50 puts were bouncing around in the $3-$5 range depending on headlines. Only a six month difference in shelf life, and the price is almost double. The market is pricing in a much greater chance of the stock price dropping into double digits now than it was a year ago. One of my put orders that had been hanging out there for several weeks got filled on the leaked production ramp email, and then the prices dropped a further ~5%. It was crazy watching the risk people were willing to take on to write those contracts based only on that email. |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 8:22:19 AM EDT
[#5]
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Posted: 7/16/2019 9:20:50 AM EDT
[#6]
I think it's time to start speculating who will buy out Tesla. Musk can take the cash and fund his space program and someone who actually knows how to mass produce cars can run Tesla.
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Posted: 7/16/2019 9:32:04 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think it's time to start speculating who will buy out Tesla. Musk can take the cash and fund his space program and someone who actually knows how to mass produce cars can run Tesla. |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 10:24:22 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I doubt anyone will buy them. Too much baggage. Better to let them implode and buy individual desirable assets as liquidation. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I think it's time to start speculating who will buy out Tesla. Musk can take the cash and fund his space program and someone who actually knows how to mass produce cars can run Tesla. |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 10:36:06 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryThen they lower the prices on everything to juice demand more. That's at least four price cuts this year. Gotta keep the growth narrative alive and drag its corpse across the finish line to the next capital raise. |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 10:42:11 AM EDT
[#10]
It seems hard to believe that there would be no buyer for Tesla interested in keeping the production line open. The cars are very much in demand. There’s a waiting list for them. They aren’t my thing personally. I prefer the hybrid to the plug in cars. But the point is people want these cars and are willing to pay a premium for all the inconveniences an electric car brings with it.
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Posted: 7/16/2019 10:48:11 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It seems hard to believe that there would be no buyer for Tesla interested in keeping the production line open. The cars are very much in demand. There’s a waiting list for them. They aren’t my thing personally. I prefer the hybrid to the plug in cars. But the point is people want these cars and are willing to pay a premium for all the inconveniences an electric car brings with it. |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 11:03:51 AM EDT
[#12]
Any thoughts on Tesla being the pin that bursts this tech bubble? Once people see a giant like Tesla fall, are they suddenly going to start worrying about all the other unprofitable tech companies that have been soaking up investments and shitting out losses for the past umpteen years?
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Posted: 7/16/2019 11:12:28 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think it's time to start speculating who will buy out Tesla. Musk can take the cash and fund his space program and someone who actually knows how to mass produce cars can run Tesla. |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 11:22:32 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Why buy when you can purcase IP and assets during the bankruptcy. Just wait to see what the stock closes at next Thursday, they have been pumping the fanbois something fearce to drive the stock up, the earnings call will be a shit show next week |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 11:34:15 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I live in Reno. I’m the past week I have interviewed two employees from Tesla looking for new jobs. They both pretty much said the same thing. People are getting canned and laid off left and right, so they see the writing on the wall. Both of them say the employees are sure the Gigafactory will be closing down on the Tesla portion. Wife’s coworker dates a dude who works for Tesla. A while back he, and several other engineers who worked at the Gigafactory got relocated to their California location. Talking to a vendor out there he said the employees are down and all talking about what they are going to do after they shut down. Take that for what it’s worth, but it’s what I’ve been hearing locally.  U.S. ORDNANCE COMPANY PROFILE VIDEO |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 11:40:00 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Any thoughts on Tesla being the pin that bursts this tech bubble? Once people see a giant like Tesla fall, are they suddenly going to start worrying about all the other unprofitable tech companies that have been soaking up investments and shitting out losses for the past umpteen years? |
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Posted: 7/16/2019 1:27:46 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This isn't the first time they've trimmed up the S/X lineup to try and make some room between the Model 3 Performance price and the base model S/X price. They're still seeing too much cannibalization of S/X, so they're trimming it more. Then they lower the prices on everything to juice demand more. That's at least four price cuts this year. Gotta keep the growth narrative alive and drag its corpse across the finish line to the next capital raise. Quote HistoryQuoted:
This isn't the first time they've trimmed up the S/X lineup to try and make some room between the Model 3 Performance price and the base model S/X price. They're still seeing too much cannibalization of S/X, so they're trimming it more. Then they lower the prices on everything to juice demand more. That's at least four price cuts this year. Gotta keep the growth narrative alive and drag its corpse across the finish line to the next capital raise. 
“We’re going to sell more cars, and lower prices too!” 
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Posted: 7/16/2019 3:04:41 PM EDT
[#18]
Seems they had to cut corners on model 3 production, to make their sales figures.
"But employees say in the push to ramp up Model 3 production, they were forced to cut corners and work in difficult, unsafe conditions. A handful of employees who work in Tesla's open-air GA4 production tent told CNBC that they used electrical tape to quickly repair broken parts and worked through extreme heat, cold and wild-fire smoke." Article |
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Posted: 7/23/2019 7:36:09 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Seems they had to cut corners on model 3 production, to make their sales figures. "But employees say in the push to ramp up Model 3 production, they were forced to cut corners and work in difficult, unsafe conditions. A handful of employees who work in Tesla's open-air GA4 production tent told CNBC that they used electrical tape to quickly repair broken parts and worked through extreme heat, cold and wild-fire smoke." Article 
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Posted: 7/23/2019 8:32:14 PM EDT
[#20]
Wondering if we will see Elon suddenly start posting BS about the Tesla pickup, with Ford showing their test mule.
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Posted: 7/24/2019 3:18:21 PM EDT
[#21]
This is a big day for Tesla! Quarterly earnings are scheduled to be released this evening. The consensus is that they'll report another loss (~50c/share).
Current problems include: - Running out of cash. - More competition from other manufacturers. - The $7,500 federal tax credit/subsidy is ending for Tesla - but will continue for other manufacturers' electric vehicles. - Sales of Tesla's aging profitable models (X and S) are shrinking. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastianblanco/2019/07/23/falling-model-s-and-x-sales-mean-teslas-margins-are-getting-squeezed |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 3:20:59 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is a big day for Tesla! Quarterly earnings are scheduled to be released this evening. The consensus is that they'll report another loss (~50c/share). Current problems include: - Running out of cash. - More competition from other manufacturers. - The $7,500 federal tax credit/subsidy is ending for Tesla - but will continue for other manufacturers' electric vehicles. - Sales of Tesla's aging profitable models (X and S) are shrinking. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastianblanco/2019/07/23/falling-model-s-and-x-sales-mean-teslas-margins-are-getting-squeezed |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 3:32:20 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is a big day for Tesla! Quarterly earnings are scheduled to be released this evening. The consensus is that they'll report another loss (~50c/share). Current problems include: - Running out of cash. - More competition from other manufacturers. - The $7,500 federal tax credit/subsidy is ending for Tesla - but will continue for other manufacturers' electric vehicles. - Sales of Tesla's aging profitable models (X and S) are shrinking. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastianblanco/2019/07/23/falling-model-s-and-x-sales-mean-teslas-margins-are-getting-squeezed
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Posted: 7/24/2019 5:28:24 PM EDT
[#24]
$408M loss.
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Posted: 7/24/2019 5:28:36 PM EDT
[#25]
Down 13%
Missed by 130% or something lol |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 5:30:46 PM EDT
[#26]
Loss per share on an adjusted basis: $1.12 vs. 40 cents expected.
Revenue: $6.35 billion versus $6.41 billion expected. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/24/tesla-earnings-q2-2019.html |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 5:56:15 PM EDT
[#27]
Yea, that's nail in the coffin territory... Fuck, how do you buy put options?
I have no idea... never did. My dad lost some money when he bet the Northrop YF-23 would win over the Lockheed YF-22
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Posted: 7/24/2019 6:40:17 PM EDT
[#28]
Stock is down about 10% in afterhours trading.
I'm watching Tesla's China plant. It's ramping up during an election season. Musk will probably blame Trump (trade war) for any China related problems. |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 7:18:43 PM EDT
[#29]
Record sales. $400M loss. Mix and ASPs are only going to continue to worsen from here. They already walked back most of the S/X refresh, so the mix and ASP there isn't improving. And to any extent that the Model Y will marginally improve mix and ASP late next year, it will only be doing it at the expense of the Model 3.
$5B cash and CASH EQUIVALENTS is a continuation of the same game from last quarter, but increased by the amount of the capital raise and the $600M free cash flow. And by the way, $330M of that $600M FCF is a result of depreciation outstripping capex. Hint: depreciation outstripping capex is not what happens to a growth company. The capex itself was a paltry $250M for the quarter. $250M capex this quarter, $280M last quarter, and they guided for $1500M-$2000M for the year today. In other words, "we promise we'll be doubling or tripling capex spending from here out for the year. Promise." New service centers were still vastly outstripped by growth in the fleet, so for now the service nightmare will still continue to worsen. Eventually enough of the Model 3s will slip down the bathtub curve and the service issues will catch up. Tesla seems content until then to let their customers suffer. One bright spot is that they've finally got SG&A expenses to consistently stop growing. Also they've managed to grow total assets a hair faster than total liabilities, so the net book value of the company is now $7B! That's only one sixth of the market cap, even after the 11% share price drop after the results were released this afternoon. ETA: $111M of regulatory credit sales. It's up to you whether you want to subtract that from FCF and profit. If you do, just remember that Tesla has a history of only reporting some of its regulatory credit sales in the press release, and burying the total of them in the 10Q. |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 7:35:10 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Wondering if we will see Elon suddenly start posting BS about the Tesla pickup, with Ford showing their test mule. |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 7:42:21 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Record sales. $400M loss. Mix and ASPs are only going to continue to worsen from here. They already walked back most of the S/X refresh, so the mix and ASP there isn't improving. And to any extent that the Model Y will marginally improve mix and ASP late next year, it will only be doing it at the expense of the Model 3. $5B cash and CASH EQUIVALENTS is a continuation of the same game from last quarter, but increased by the amount of the capital raise and the $600M free cash flow. And by the way, $330M of that $600M FCF is a result of depreciation outstripping capex. Hint: depreciation outstripping capex is not what happens to a growth company. The capex itself was a paltry $250M for the quarter. $250M capex this quarter, $280M last quarter, and they guided for $1500M-$2000M for the year today. In other words, "we promise we'll be doubling or tripling capex spending from here out for the year. Promise." New service centers were still vastly outstripped by growth in the fleet, so for now the service nightmare will still continue to worsen. Eventually enough of the Model 3s will slip down the bathtub curve and the service issues will catch up. Tesla seems content until then to let their customers suffer. One bright spot is that they've finally got SG&A expenses to consistently stop growing. Also they've managed to grow total assets a hair faster than total liabilities, so the net book value of the company is now $7B! That's only one sixth of the market cap, even after the 11% share price drop after the results were released this afternoon. ETA: $111M of regulatory credit sales. It's up to you whether you want to subtract that from FCF and profit. If you do, just remember that Tesla has a history of only reporting some of its regulatory credit sales in the press release, and burying the total of them in the 10Q. Tesla's 8k - March 31, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 74,312k Tesla's 8k - June 30, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 480,833k |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 7:55:14 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not a finance guy, but it seems that "Goodwill and intangible assets, net" is a category that would allow companies to overstate their assets. Tesla's 8k - March 31, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 74,312k Tesla's 8k - June 30, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 480,833k |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 7:58:07 PM EDT
[#33]
For some reason I was getting Tesla updates and the level of BS was off the charts.
They were talking about all the buzz their vaporware pickup truck was generating. More interest than Ford's new truck, blah, blah, blah. |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 8:16:15 PM EDT
[#34]
Why do so many Tesla lovers seem to be so young?
This guy is recommending Tesla stock. He's also sporting a "Happy 21st birthday" sign in the video.  Tesla Stock Predictions: Why I''m ADDING To My Position |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 8:16:21 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not a finance guy, but it seems that "Goodwill and intangible assets, net" is a category that would allow companies to overstate their assets. Tesla's 8k - March 31, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 74,312k Tesla's 8k - June 30, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 480,833k Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not a finance guy, but it seems that "Goodwill and intangible assets, net" is a category that would allow companies to overstate their assets. Tesla's 8k - March 31, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 74,312k Tesla's 8k - June 30, 2019 - Goodwill and intangible assets, net - 480,833k One intangible asset Tesla owns is the now worthless Silevo solar panel technology that Solar City paid $177M for. One day that boondoggle will have to be written down to its actual value of $0. How much of that $177M acquisition price is tucked into Intangible Assets on the balance sheet? Well, looks like we can scratch almost $100M of that $177M already: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4061589-tesla-solarcity-silevo-acquisition Tesla has determined that final contingent payments will not be made to the Silevo sellers, and oddly has reported this as a gain of almost $100 million. |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 8:29:14 PM EDT
[#36]
Tesla's Chief Technology Officer is stepping down.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cto-jb-straubel-is-stepping-down-moving-to-advisory-role-225728800.html |
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Posted: 7/24/2019 8:44:04 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla's Chief Technology Officer is stepping down. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cto-jb-straubel-is-stepping-down-moving-to-advisory-role-225728800.html Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla's Chief Technology Officer is stepping down. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cto-jb-straubel-is-stepping-down-moving-to-advisory-role-225728800.html "I'm not disappearing ... this is not some lack of confidence in the team or anything like that," Straubel said during the call. "I love the team and I love the company and I always will." Straubel has been cashing out for a while now, to the tune of $33M in Tesla stock sold in the last 8 months. http://openinsider.com/insider/Straubel-Jeffrey-B/1494727 |
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Posted: 7/25/2019 11:33:03 AM EDT
[#38]
These people never fail to amuse me.
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Posted: 7/29/2019 9:30:18 PM EDT
[#39]
Someone tell the President: Tesla committed to pay $320 million/year in taxes to China.
Tesla pays no income taxes to the USA. Tesla received $700M+ in subsidies from US taxpayers in the third quarter of 2018 alone. Instead of providing jobs for Americans to export cars to China, Tesla is building a new $2B factory in China. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/someone-tell-the-president-tesla-s-musk-promised-china-320m-tax-revenue-a-year-15036212 |
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Posted: 8/5/2019 5:02:25 PM EDT
[#40]
Tent production yielding further QC problems, this time with paint.
Article "Thickness tests showed that the paint was not even. In some places, it averaged 106 microns, well below the industry’s average of 110 to 150 microns. But it gets worse. Some areas had just around 70 microns of paint. The report even claims that in the most affected areas the paint was "well below the lower tolerance range given by the manufacturer"." |
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Posted: 8/16/2019 2:34:28 PM EDT
[#41]
German rental company Nextmove cancels $5M Tesla order due to quality issues. Not a huge loss financially, but it's bad PR.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-nextmove/germanys-nextmove-cancels-tesla-order-citing-quality-issues-idUSKCN1V61DG |
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Posted: 8/16/2019 4:38:15 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Someone tell the President: Tesla committed to pay $320 million/year in taxes to China. Tesla pays no income taxes to the USA. Tesla received $700M+ in subsidies from US taxpayers in the third quarter of 2018 alone. Instead of providing jobs for Americans to export cars to China, Tesla is building a new $2B factory in China. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/someone-tell-the-president-tesla-s-musk-promised-china-320m-tax-revenue-a-year-15036212 |
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Posted: 8/16/2019 4:46:23 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Has Tesla ever had a net income? The part they didn't mention about China? If Tesla doesn't fulfill the terms by 2023 the plant reverts to Chinese ownership. Any bets on that happening? |
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Posted: 8/17/2019 11:06:47 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
German rental company Nextmove cancels $5M Tesla order due to quality issues. Not a huge loss financially, but it's bad PR. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-nextmove/germanys-nextmove-cancels-tesla-order-citing-quality-issues-idUSKCN1V61DG A hundred cars is hardly worth the hassle and Musk told them to pound sand. |
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Posted: 8/17/2019 11:10:22 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
“Tesla triggered a refund clause”... A hundred cars is hardly worth the hassle and Musk told them to pound sand. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
German rental company Nextmove cancels $5M Tesla order due to quality issues. Not a huge loss financially, but it's bad PR. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-nextmove/germanys-nextmove-cancels-tesla-order-citing-quality-issues-idUSKCN1V61DG A hundred cars is hardly worth the hassle and Musk told them to pound sand. That’s awesome if you are a super-profitable company with fat margins. For a car company that has NEVER made a profit off any car they have sold in their entire history as a manufacturer, it’s probably not the smartest attitude to have.
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Posted: 8/17/2019 11:58:11 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: lol That’s awesome if you are a super-profitable company with fat margins. For a car company that has NEVER made a profit off any car they have sold in their entire history as a manufacturer, it’s probably not the smartest attitude to have. If you’ve watched Nextmove’s YouTube videos, you’d know they are a joke and are pandering for attention (like Consumer Reports) You don’t need to make money to stay in business, you just need investors... |
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Posted: 8/18/2019 12:09:15 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You don’t need to make money to stay in business, you just need investors... In popular parlance, that “business model” is called a pyramid scheme. |
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Posted: 8/18/2019 12:12:35 AM EDT
[#48]
Too many former Burger King employees building $60-$100k cars.
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Posted: 8/18/2019 12:15:48 AM EDT
[#49]
Anyone else see Tesla as the modern day Tucker?
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Posted: 8/18/2019 12:39:34 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else see Tesla as the modern day Tucker? |
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