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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:32:18 AM EDT
[#1]
#flubro4lyfe
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:32:24 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:36:14 AM EDT
[#3]
So your state is early in infections and potentially has already established social distancing rules before the virus became and issue...
Did you actually look for data? By only choosing your own state you are cherry picking your data set. Well, no one in my home has gotten it so thus the whole thing is overblown. Extrapolate much? |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:40:13 AM EDT
[#4]
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start. Even with extreme social distancing measures its projected we'll have 60k deaths at a minimum. Without those measures it'd be far far worse. Humans such at understanding exponential math. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:40:50 AM EDT
[#5]
Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:43:59 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. Yup, WA state would be more like NY state if policies were not put into place or if people stopped following them. Its like saying "oh, we repaired this failing bridge to keep it from falling down and it hasn't fallen down since we repaired it, maybe we shouldn't have bothered to repair it at all". |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:45:54 AM EDT
[#7]
The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:50:48 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/The_Rock_Applause-169.gif Yea, what Chuck said!! What is up, Chuck? |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:51:14 AM EDT
[#9]
The fact alone that we dont have a subforum for it, shows just how much we are underestimating this 2019ncovid19sars pandemic
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:51:30 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yea, what Chuck said!! What is up, Chuck? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/The_Rock_Applause-169.gif Yea, what Chuck said!! What is up, Chuck? Who? |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:52:08 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start. Even with extreme social distancing measures its projected we'll have 60k deaths at a minimum. Without those measures it'd be far far worse. Humans such at understanding exponential math. You mean the 'expert' projections that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:52:42 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: #flubro4lyfe You're immune hanging around with those Asian chicks. 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:52:45 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start Quote HistoryQuoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start Are those the "government" numbers? You know, the ones we've been told include anyone who died WITH covid, as opposed TO covid? Also, at least one of those sources (https://covid19.healthdata.org) has been wrong time and again, and has had to lower their projections SUBSTANTIALLY. Also, they aren't adjusting models for individual conditions, which is why models and projections done locally with ACTUAL data from my state show an even lower projection than the "new, lower projections" that that site does. Seriously, please don't mention that site and pretend it's good data. Quoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Hey, I can't take the credit for it, it wouldn't be fair. The people doing the projections figured that out themselves, which is why they've lowered their projected mortality time and again. Remember when mortality was supposed to be 12%? 9%? 6%? 3%? 1%? 0.9%? Remember when R0 was supposed to be 3x higher than the flu? Then 2x higher? Then maybe only 1.5x higher? Pepperidge farms remembers. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:53:11 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/The_Rock_Applause-169.gif Again, you mean the 'expert' models and simulations that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:53:54 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. The projections always assumed strict social distancing and were still wrong |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:54:03 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You're immune hanging around with those Asian chicks. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: #flubro4lyfe You're immune hanging around with those Asian chicks. Probably.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:54:46 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Again, you mean the 'expert' models and simulations that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/The_Rock_Applause-169.gif Again, you mean the 'expert' models and simulations that have all repeatedly proven to be BS?  Attached File |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:56:12 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:56:48 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. No that makes no sense. The social distancing and shutdowns had nothing to do with the readjustment of the curves. This whole thing is totally overblown and the outcome would have been the same. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 2:59:27 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You mean the 'expert' projections that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:00:23 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:00:42 AM EDT
[#22]
They have lowered the projections by 90% since the initial data used to put us on lockdown. Looks like staying home worked! Mission accomplished.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:01:17 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You mean the 'expert' projections that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with That’s false. The most often cited projections were always based on strict social distancing. Even Doomer Tucker Carlson admitted that tonight. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:01:51 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They have lowered the projections by 90% since the initial data used to put us on lockdown. Looks like staying home worked! Mission accomplished. The projections alway presumed strict social distancing |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:02:02 AM EDT
[#25]
Surprised this site doesn't give out more epidemiologist badges.
We have thousands. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:02:27 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:02:48 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start. Even with extreme social distancing measures its projected we'll have 60k deaths at a minimum. Without those measures it'd be far far worse. Humans such at understanding exponential math. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:02:51 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. And almost nobody actually follows that shit, people are partying. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:03:35 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service. /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/The_Rock_Applause-169.gif This guy fucks. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:03:50 AM EDT
[#30]
(deleted)
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:03:52 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/327887/SmartSelect_20200409-025552_Firefox_jpg-1358500.JPG ETA - oops. Wrong thread. You posted a tabloid article.... Does this mean the article on the front page of the globe that says that Tom cruise is really an alien is true!? I had no idea that tabloids were so credible. You must get your financial news from zero hedge lol. I swear if arfcom figured out what an editorial was the world would be a better place. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:06:26 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You mean the 'expert' projections that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with So is this the science i hear about? Non-falsifiable ideas? |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:06:52 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Again, you mean the 'expert' models and simulations that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Don't fall for the panicky media cherry picking the upper end of the worst case models as representative of all models. The assumptions and corresponding results of models like these never lend themselves well to short headlines (or even complete news articles) but that's how they're always presented. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:08:00 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: (deleted) Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:10:34 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: (deleted) Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. Sorry your virus lost |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:10:39 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And almost nobody actually follows that shit, people are partying. Maybe in crowded urban leftist shitholes, but not from what I've personally been seeing so far. Just people canceling unnecessary social gatherings, not traveling, staying away from each other, working from home if possible, and overall just handling it like reasonable adults accepting that this is a moderate temporary disruption to their lives that will blow over soon. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:11:09 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry your virus lost science man bad |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:11:47 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You posted a tabloid article.... Does this mean the article on the front page of the globe that says that Tom cruise is really an alien is true!? I had no idea that tabloids were so credible. You must get your financial news from zero hedge lol. I swear if arfcom figured out what an editorial was the world would be a better place. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:13:31 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And almost nobody actually follows that shit, people are partying. Anecdotes are neat. Everyone avoids us like the plague around here. People will cross the street a half a block ahead of us to not walk by us. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:15:04 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe in crowded urban leftist shitholes, but not from what I've personally been seeing so far. Just people canceling unnecessary social gatherings, not traveling, staying away from each other, working from home if possible, and overall just handling it like reasonable adults accepting that this is a moderate temporary disruption to their lives that will blow over soon. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:15:24 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: (deleted) Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:16:14 AM EDT
[#42]
You’re right. This thing has been greatly exaggerated to push an agenda of fear and hurt the economy. Hearing more and more stories of death number fuckery. Such as any death with positive results for covid19 are asserting covid19 as causal. Mostly anecdotal for now but I fully expect deaths for other disease will show drastic underreporting across the board to inflate C19.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:17:25 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryWooooooooosh |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:18:21 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry your virus lost Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: (deleted) Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. Sorry your virus lost
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:20:10 AM EDT
[#45]
The projections from the leading models keep lowering by the day. Doomers are currently yelling at clouds and pulling their hair out. This is certainly the biggest overblown event we will see in our lifetime.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:21:28 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The projections from the leading models keep lowering by the day. Doomers are currently yelling at clouds and pulling their hair out. This is certainly the biggest overblown event we will see in our lifetime. History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:21:56 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryI'm not sure what point you're trying to make. You should actually take the time to read the first few paragraphs of that link. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:22:01 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The projections from the leading models keep lowering by the day. Doomers are currently yelling at clouds and pulling their hair out. This is certainly the biggest overblown event we will see in our lifetime. History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria Yup. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:22:37 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. Quote HistoryQuoted: Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. But that wasn't what you were talking about. You told me to leave it to the people doing the predictions and trust their data... but when it's pointed out that their predictions have been wrong, their revisions have been wrong, and their revisions have been wrong, you say "early projections are always going to have a huge error". Which is it... do I trust them, or are they going to have a huge error? Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. I'd say that it's the very definition of "less of a threat" than we thought it was going to be. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:22:48 AM EDT
[#50]
I got furloughed yesterday and we have a 4 month old boy. The economic impact is hardly overblown.
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