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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:23:52 AM EDT
[#1]
I think the biggest indicator will be antibody testing.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:24:03 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Are those the "government" numbers? You know, the ones we've been told include anyone who died WITH covid, as opposed TO covid? Also, at least one of those sources (https://covid19.healthdata.org) has been wrong time and again, and has had to lower their projections SUBSTANTIALLY. Also, they aren't adjusting models for individual conditions, which is why models and projections done locally with ACTUAL data from my state show an even lower projection than the "new, lower projections" that that site does. Seriously, please don't mention that site and pretend it's good data. Hey, I can't take the credit for it, it wouldn't be fair. The people doing the projections figured that out themselves, which is why they've lowered their projected mortality time and again. Remember when mortality was supposed to be 12%? 9%? 6%? 3%? 1%? 0.9%? Remember when R0 was supposed to be 3x higher than the flu? Then 2x higher? Then maybe only 1.5x higher? Pepperidge farms remembers. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start Are those the "government" numbers? You know, the ones we've been told include anyone who died WITH covid, as opposed TO covid? Also, at least one of those sources (https://covid19.healthdata.org) has been wrong time and again, and has had to lower their projections SUBSTANTIALLY. Also, they aren't adjusting models for individual conditions, which is why models and projections done locally with ACTUAL data from my state show an even lower projection than the "new, lower projections" that that site does. Seriously, please don't mention that site and pretend it's good data. Quoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Hey, I can't take the credit for it, it wouldn't be fair. The people doing the projections figured that out themselves, which is why they've lowered their projected mortality time and again. Remember when mortality was supposed to be 12%? 9%? 6%? 3%? 1%? 0.9%? Remember when R0 was supposed to be 3x higher than the flu? Then 2x higher? Then maybe only 1.5x higher? Pepperidge farms remembers. Go look at the numbers outside China, and ignore the idiocy of the Imperial data, which is based on Chinese bullshit. Best estimates now are putting the r0 just under 6 (3x the flu). And look at global figures for deaths versus recovered cases. Then look at fatalities rates for Europe. It will not stop until it has infected the majority of the population. Keep that in mind. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:26:27 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryNate Silver is fun to meme on but he also actually ended up being correct. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:29:51 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I got furloughed yesterday and we have a 4 month old boy. The economic impact is hardly overblown. The economic impact is ENORMOUS. And tragically unnecessary. The virus itself is a bitch-ass little flu wanna-be. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:32:25 AM EDT
[#5]
Once this is all over, it will be the most studied disease in modern times. At that time we’ll know for sure if everything was overblown or not, until then, stay home and stay away from people.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:33:06 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But that wasn't what you were talking about. You told me to leave it to the people doing the predictions and trust their data... but when it's pointed out that their predictions have been wrong, their revisions have been wrong, and their revisions have been wrong, you say "early projections are always going to have a huge error". Which is it... do I trust them, or are they going to have a huge error? I'd say that it's the very definition of "less of a threat" than we thought it was going to be. My point was that shitting on projections doesn't matter because it doesn't solve any problems. You want a gold metal for saying that the millions of deaths that certain people were projecting is high in hindsight? Great, here's your gold star. It doesn't change the fact that the shutdown was still the right call. It doesn't change the fact that the virus is still a problem. No one gets big dick points for being the I told you so guy. I still hold that you should trust the experts, more data means better projections. Your data is limited and basically useless. If you're right its only due to luck rather than any statistical model or scientific method. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:34:33 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The projections from the leading models keep lowering by the day. Doomers are currently yelling at clouds and pulling their hair out. This is certainly the biggest overblown event we will see in our lifetime. History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria Yep. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:35:02 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My point was that shitting on projections doesn't matter because it doesn't solve any problems. You want a gold metal for saying that the millions of deaths that certain people were projecting is high in hindsight? Great, here's your gold star. It doesn't change the fact that the shutdown was still the right call. It doesn't change the fact that the virus is still a problem. No one gets big dick points for being the I told you so guy. I still hold that you should trust the experts, more data means better projections. Your data is limited and basically useless. If you're right its only due to luck rather than any statistical model or scientific method. 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:36:30 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I got furloughed yesterday and we have a 4 month old boy. The economic impact is hardly overblown. The economic impact will be huge. Sorry to hear. Supposedly the measure will be a net positive in the long run. Supposedly anyway since it is super early in this whole economic cycle. That doesn't help you though - I wish you luck |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:44:09 AM EDT
[#10]
Are the experts that everyone is basing just how bad this is the same ones since the 60s that have been screaming about global warming? Um,I mean climate change? Asking for a friend.
My disclaimer: Any virus that can take human life should be taken seriously. How serious is obviously up to interpretation. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:57:54 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Once this is all over, it will be the most studied disease in modern times. At that time we’ll know for sure if everything was overblown or not, until then, stay home and stay away from people. Let's destroy the economy and society just in case. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 3:59:11 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Are those the "government" numbers? You know, the ones we've been told include anyone who died WITH covid, as opposed TO covid? Also, at least one of those sources (https://covid19.healthdata.org) has been wrong time and again, and has had to lower their projections SUBSTANTIALLY. Also, they aren't adjusting models for individual conditions, which is why models and projections done locally with ACTUAL data from my state show an even lower projection than the "new, lower projections" that that site does. Seriously, please don't mention that site and pretend it's good data. Hey, I can't take the credit for it, it wouldn't be fair. The people doing the projections figured that out themselves, which is why they've lowered their projected mortality time and again. Remember when mortality was supposed to be 12%? 9%? 6%? 3%? 1%? 0.9%? Remember when R0 was supposed to be 3x higher than the flu? Then 2x higher? Then maybe only 1.5x higher? Pepperidge farms remembers. All those that died with "presumed" covid - as in they didn't bother testing, but they could have been exposed to covid, so we're going to put covid on the death certificate as the primary cause anyway. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 4:16:27 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The projections from the leading models keep lowering by the day. Doomers are currently yelling at clouds and pulling their hair out. This is certainly the biggest overblown event we will see in our lifetime. History will look back on this as an example of mass hysteria Kind of like when commoners thought the world would end if a train went faster than 14 mph (or whatever it was). |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 4:23:05 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hey, I can't take the credit for it, it wouldn't be fair. The people doing the projections figured that out themselves, which is why they've lowered their projected mortality time and again. Remember when mortality was supposed to be 12%? 9%? 6%? 3%? 1%? 0.9%? Remember when R0 was supposed to be 3x higher than the flu? Then 2x higher? Then maybe only 1.5x higher? Pepperidge farms remembers. You’d have a point, if what you were saying at all reflected reality. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article “we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7” The flu is 1.3. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 4:51:47 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You’re right. This thing has been greatly exaggerated to push an agenda of fear and hurt the economy. Hearing more and more stories of death number fuckery. Such as any death with positive results for covid19 are asserting covid19 as causal. Mostly anecdotal for now but I fully expect deaths for other disease will show drastic underreporting across the board to inflate C19. How about a counted case in a rural county that gets sent to Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and counted there as well. Also, the "surge" are seeing in Ohio the past couple of days has to do with the order from the Governor last the end of last week. Small hospital systems were sending tests to private labs. They ended up getting back logged, some taking 6-7-8 days for results. Gov ordered all hospitals that didn't have labs set up for testing to send cultures into a hospital that does or the state lab with turn around times of a day or less. Now, you are getting results from the tests nearly a week ago from private labs, adding to the daily results from the more local labs. Boom, surge! |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 4:56:48 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I got furloughed yesterday and we have a 4 month old boy. The economic impact is hardly overblown. I hope they track the domestic violence, child abuse and or suicide rates that will surely be measurable that are caused by the states actions. They have removed nearly ALL activities with mandatory reporters. Little League, teachers, 4-H, most church activities (not mandatory closings) and I'm sure I'm missing a few. What about elderly abuse in nursing homes? Health care workers are now working in one of the most stressful situations they've experienced. Tell me that doesn't affect treatment of patients. Also, you are not alone, hospitals all over are laying off workers. https://www.starbeacon.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-leads-to-temporary-furloughs-at-acmc/article_88fac9fd-6482-5aa8-b482-c0b0810abaef.html |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 6:01:28 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My point was that shitting on projections doesn't matter because it doesn't solve any problems. You want a gold metal for saying that the millions of deaths that certain people were projecting is high in hindsight? Great, here's your gold star. It doesn't change the fact that the shutdown was still the right call. It doesn't change the fact that the virus is still a problem. No one gets big dick points for being the I told you so guy. I still hold that you should trust the experts, more data means better projections. Your data is limited and basically useless. If you're right its only due to luck rather than any statistical model or scientific method. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: But that wasn't what you were talking about. You told me to leave it to the people doing the predictions and trust their data... but when it's pointed out that their predictions have been wrong, their revisions have been wrong, and their revisions have been wrong, you say "early projections are always going to have a huge error". Which is it... do I trust them, or are they going to have a huge error? I'd say that it's the very definition of "less of a threat" than we thought it was going to be. My point was that shitting on projections doesn't matter because it doesn't solve any problems. You want a gold metal for saying that the millions of deaths that certain people were projecting is high in hindsight? Great, here's your gold star. It doesn't change the fact that the shutdown was still the right call. It doesn't change the fact that the virus is still a problem. No one gets big dick points for being the I told you so guy. I still hold that you should trust the experts, more data means better projections. Your data is limited and basically useless. If you're right its only due to luck rather than any statistical model or scientific method. You keep moving the goalposts. You told me to trust those sources, then admitted they were inaccurate. My data is up to the day, and relevant locally to me. Your sources aren't. If I'm looking at the data wrong, by all means, tell me. But don't hide behind calling my math shit, then offering up shit sources. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 6:04:39 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will not stop until it has infected the majority of the population. Keep that in mind. Quote HistoryQuoted: It will not stop until it has infected the majority of the population. Keep that in mind. That's another topic worthy of discussion.... This will likely keep coming back seasonally. Unless the a vaccine for it, nearly everyone will get it sooner or later. If there's no vaccine, it comes around again in November, and they talk about putting this country on lockdown again for another 4-6 months.... That's going to be a wild ride. Quoted: Go look at the numbers outside China, and ignore the idiocy of the Imperial data, which is based on Chinese bullshit. Best estimates now are putting the r0 just under 6 (3x the flu). And look at global figures for deaths versus recovered cases. Then look at fatalities rates for Europe. The high numbers I'm seeing (5-6) are the ones from China... Or at least the CDC studyies on China's numbers. WHO said 2.5-3. imperial college says 1.5-3.5. obviously situationally dependent, a high density craphole will have a higher r0 than low density.... But the "outside China r0" seems to be in the ballpark with the flu. As to worldwide wide death rates.... You'd need worldwide death rates from flu and pneumonia to compare. Differences in age, environment, culture, density, health care... Germany, France, Italy, Japan, all VERY different situations. I'm trying to only go on places where I have concrete historical data. But, still, I'm not necessarily arguing that I'm right... I'm happy to hear how I could be looking at the data wrong. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 6:43:16 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: . It will not stop until it has infected the majority of the population. Keep that in mind. ??? |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 6:45:20 AM EDT
[#20]
Jfc just stop op
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Posted: 4/9/2020 6:48:19 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 6:51:06 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. This is going to be the permanent battle cry of the doomers. Get used to it. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:00:08 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start. Even with extreme social distancing measures its projected we'll have 60k deaths at a minimum. Without those measures it'd be far far worse. Humans such at understanding exponential math. just like in the movie,,guberment has "top menz" working on it,,,,, 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:02:09 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Surprised this site doesn't give out more epidemiologist badges. We have thousands. u git one just for spelling that right,,, |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:13:26 AM EDT
[#25]
All I know is that we had 2 cases in Florida a month ago, 192 three weeks ago, and
That's a |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:14:32 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:20:24 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hey, I can't take the credit for it, it wouldn't be fair. The people doing the projections figured that out themselves, which is why they've lowered their projected mortality time and again. Remember when mortality was supposed to be 12%? 9%? 6%? 3%? 1%? 0.9%? Remember when R0 was supposed to be 3x higher than the flu? Then 2x higher? Then maybe only 1.5x higher? Pepperidge farms remembers. CFR was estimated to be 10x that of flu in the beginning so maybe 1%. That was a worse case scenario. R0 was estimated to be 2.2 from the beginning. So basically the numbers in your post are all made up. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:24:34 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All I know is that we had 2 cases in Florida a month ago, 192 three weeks ago, and 5,461 as of today. That's a steep curve. So? The survival rate with the virus is still almost 100%. You realize flu infects 40+ million per year, right? You can’t stop a virus from doing its thing. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:24:59 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with  If people saw others dropping like flies around them, "social distancing" would have naturally occurred from fear. If smart people don't take that into account in their "projections" that's not too smart of them. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:25:05 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All those that died with "presumed" covid - as in they didn't bother testing, but they could have been exposed to covid, so we're going to put covid on the death certificate as the primary cause anyway. That’s not how that works at all. It’s about symptoms and presentation. Also, the way they are classifying deaths “with covid” as covid deaths is exactly what they do for the flu. Your chronic conditions are exacerbated by a an acute infectious process, which leads to death. Your heart stops working properly because there’s not enough oxygen, you don’t have enough oxygen because the gas exchange in your lungs is impaired thanks to covid. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:26:39 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yea. Some 6-7 million people out of a job is way beyond that... Muh job is more important than my 70 year old neighbors life!! |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:30:17 AM EDT
[#32]
Flubros are hilarious.
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:30:32 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You mean the 'expert' projections that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with I know what a projection is. I also know why projections showing steep exponential curves that mirror the availability of tests when you’re only testing people showing severe symptoms aren’t a great way to estimate the actual infection rate. Covid is a serious problem that is definitely worse from the flu, but we are making decisions on shitty data. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:31:24 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Please leave the math to the people who understand it. Your napkin math is always going to be shit compared to the hundreds if not thousands of people working on simulations for covid that are advising policy makers. Above is a better place to start. Even with extreme social distancing measures its projected we'll have 60k deaths at a minimum. Without those measures it'd be far far worse. Humans such at understanding exponential math. Get the fuck out with your models. They are no better than polling data. To easy to get whatever you want out of them. And quit being such a doomed. 
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:32:57 AM EDT
[#35]
Lol
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:33:10 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is going to be the permanent battle cry of the doomers. Get used to it. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. This is going to be the permanent battle cry of the doomers. Get used to it. Yup, called it a couple weeks ago...get ready to read a bunch of backpedaling and goalpost moving from the doomers. They're so fucking retarded now they don't trust the models they were using as gospel just a week ago. The big doomer thread is a fucking hoot. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:33:48 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The whole world owes you. You. You did it. You figured it out. Countless smart people around the world doing research around the clock, formulating models and running simulations, fuck that. They are all wrong. You have it figured out. Your 16 minutes searching google is the break through everyone needed. I for one am relieved. Thank you for your service.  Attached FileI'm with this^ guy... ...the government is wise. The government knows what is best |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:34:03 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All I know is that we had 2 cases in Florida a month ago, 192 three weeks ago, and 5,461 as of today. That's a steep curve. KNOWN cases that tested positive. For all you know half the state has had it. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:34:10 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So? The survival rate with the virus is still almost 100%. You realize flu infects 40+ million per year, right? You can’t stop a virus from doing its thing. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: All I know is that we had 2 cases in Florida a month ago, 192 three weeks ago, and 5,461 as of today. That's a steep curve. So? The survival rate with the virus is still almost 100%. You realize flu infects 40+ million per year, right? You can’t stop a virus from doing its thing. The flu argument is so lame. This is a novel virus. No action means many multiples of the number you quoted. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:34:16 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry your virus lost Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: (deleted) Early projections are always going to have a huge error. Fuck the projections, the data we have now still says the response is and was justified. The projections, even if wrong, lead to the right calls being made. Just because the projections were off doesn't make the disease any less of a threat. This shit also isn't even over yet. Sorry your virus lost Don't be too harsh. He's really upset about it. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:35:13 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So your state is early in infections and potentially has already established social distancing rules before the virus became and issue... Did you actually look for data? By only choosing your own state you are cherry picking your data set. Well, no one in my home has gotten it so thus the whole thing is overblown. Extrapolate much? Move goal posts much |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:35:14 AM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:35:19 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All I know is that we had 2 cases in Florida a month ago, 192 three weeks ago, and 5,461 as of today. That's a steep curve. Serious question, since not everyone in any state has been tested, what if the actual number of citizens nationwide with the virus is in the tens of millions? Does the numbers in the hospital still validate the reaction? |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:37:12 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Muh job is more important than my 70 year old neighbors life!! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Yea. Some 6-7 million people out of a job is way beyond that... Muh job is more important than my 70 year old neighbors life!! What is the issue with the elderly taking preventative measures to protect themselves while I still manage to provide for my family? I'm sorry but I'm not losing my families livelihood and my children's futures for the elderly, I'm just not. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:37:15 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Keep in mind that the corona deaths you're seeing are after all the shutdown, social distancing, etc policies have been put in place. I've seen quite a few people here thinking along the lines of "we implemented a bunch of new policies, the deaths aren't as bad as original projections, so why did we implement the policies?" which is just such a silly train of thought. zwitter is correct |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:37:51 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's false. The most often cited projections were always based on strict social distancing. Even Doomer Tucker Carlson admitted that tonight. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: You mean the 'expert' projections that have all repeatedly proven to be BS? Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with That's false. The most often cited projections were always based on strict social distancing. Even Doomer Tucker Carlson admitted that tonight. Wait, what?! Tucker is a doomer?! FFS, now I gotta watch something else during the 5 o'clock hour  ...
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:41:57 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol I don't think you understood what projection or estimate means. They may not pan out, but it its probably because new information or something changes. Example being that most projections were stated with the caveat that no social distancing would occur. You don't seem to get that, I'll pay you back with |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:43:44 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Muh job is more important than my 70 year old neighbors life!! |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:45:03 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All I know is that we had 2 cases in Florida a month ago, 192 three weeks ago, and 5,461 as of today. That's a steep curve. You had more than 2 cases a month ago. I’d wager thousands. You 2 people with a bad response to this virus that got tested.then testing ramped up. |
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Posted: 4/9/2020 7:45:56 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I got furloughed yesterday and we have a 4 month old boy. The economic impact is hardly overblown. DGAF. People are dying. |
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