Savage

That guy is firmly in the "if it saves just one life" camp, for a lot of things.

Govt regulations > personal choice

People die every day if you haven't noticed. We should just mandate everyone stay at home all the time and don't do anything! Think of all the people we'd save!!

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2015/10/23/the-great-recession-would-have-been-much-worse-without-stimulus-tarp

If this is your argument - it would have been worse - then you have no argument as it is not falsifiable and as such not scientific. It is an article of faith.

We can track numbers. Doctors all over Europe have been questioning the actual danger of the virus, especially as the virus is either flat or on the decline in Europe and excess mortality is down. Doctors here and there have been warning that the numbers are being inflated, likely to justify their actions, and after being brushed aside as a crazy conspiracy theory it turns out the CDC confirmed in print and Dr. Birx confirmed verbally exactly that.

Those who suggest it is due to the draconian shutdowns might also realize that there are measures to track the efforts of "social distancing" and it turns out that people really haven't been doing that at all. It turns out that respiratory illness will spread based on population density and that maybe it was never necessary in less dense areas and completely ineffective in more dense areas. Lots of smart people were questioning this from the beginning but nobody listened if it didn't match the hysteria.

Oh, and finally, the models always assumed strict social distancing. They've been reduced by 60% to 90%. Based on...what? The social distancing we're not really doing? The staying home we're not really doing?

Smoke and mirrors.

You really are a fearful person and that's why you wish to control everything.  Control is an illusion.

Look on the bright side.  ChiCom Flu has cured pneumonia and heart disease.

Also, the ChiCom Flu has taken out more carriers than the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor.

This is a brush back pitch from Xi.  "See what we can do to you if we want.  We can shut down your entire effin' country.  Now, give us Taiwan and let us have the South China Sea."

Yup, absolutely sucks that folks have been adversely impacted as a result of the economy being forcibly shut down. Really does. That doesn’t mean that the decision to shut down the economy was righteous or justified...

I don't know how he can even handle owning a gun.

There was a headline posted on the first page of this thread that was about that very topic. How neat is that?! ??...

lol...

After reading how they guesstimate flu deaths, I think death by flu is the number that's overblown. I just turned 50 and I can't remember anyone I know being put on a vent tube for flu or dying from flu. I've heard of it happening but never actually knew anyone it happened to. I can't say the same about Covid and it's not widespread in my area yet.

... for the most part, we were hoodwinked

Absolutely.  All part of the plan.

Those numbers are due to increased testing, not new infections.

How can we reply when we don't know the location you speak of?

Hmm. Everywhere I go in Washington I see crowds of people lined up at stores fighting over buttwipe and water bottles. All the fast food joints and coffee stands have long lines of people handing the little chicky at the window their dirty contaminated money while she hands em their bags full of heart desease. So much for social distancing.
From what I understand, most people that get this show little or no symptoms. how many people have actually been infected? Give me an accurate number.

Moderate? Are you fucking insane. The financial impact of this shutdown is staggering. It's killing businesses people spent their lives building. Wiping out savings and driving up debt like never before.

Maybe it's just you...

The worst part about it may be if there is a real deadly pandemic (i.e. something that kills far more than 1% of infected) People aren't going to take it as seriously.

The estimate that guessed an R0 of 5.7 was based on the ficticous Chinese data. Most other guesses are in the 2-2.5 range. It's probably even less than that given how wrong the models have been, likely because the asymptomatic cases are much larger than first thought, and clear the infection sooner and thus have a much lower R0 value.

Back-computing Swedish data seems to suggest an R0 of ~1.5. Natural R0 is probably higher in NYC for obvious reasons (5 million people live and/or work on Manhattan, which is 23 sq mi in size)

This always bugs me when someone with "USA" as their location starts talking about "where I am".

No shit....

It a coup not the flu.

The "doomers" live in a binary world. Everything needs to be this OR that.
They don't have the mental capacity to envision a solution that supports a robust economy while also taking precautionary measures to protect
against the spread of viral infections, particularly among the elderly. There is only one solution to them and that's it.

Key word in your statement is "simulation"
Also funny how people trust the .gov and the "experts" only when they want to. Hmmmmm.

This is what I am seeing, people are staying away. People still go out but they don’t go near each other. Behaviours have changed, instead of going to the post office every day they go once a week and they go in one at a time.

I agree with the OP. This biggest impact of the disease has been public hysteria and the economy.
The hysteria has even spread to ARFCOM. The nearly 2,000 page doomer thread is evidence of that. I was blacklisted from that thread for posting a link to CDC data on the conventional flu for comparison purposes.

It seems the doomers are resorting to insults to push their story. Always a bad sign.

German antibody testing seems to suggest huge amounts of asymptomatic carriers...

https://www.thenational.ae/world/germany-s-wuhan-has-15-per-cent-infection-rate-and-low-death-toll-1.1004050

Blacklisted. There’s a DoomerMod?

Agreed.
Original estimate that closed America was 2,400,000 dead, then 200,000, now down 60,000. Which puts in into the normal flu range.
Me standing 6' away from the schlub next to me helped, but not this much.
Original models were rediculously inaccurate, maybe intentionally.

The more I read the more serious I think the illness is.

Over three weeks ago I gave an estimate and model that laid out how this has panned  out.

Lots of this going on:

Argument from authorityFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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An argument from authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), also called an appeal to authority, or argumentum ad verecundiam, is a form of defeasible[1] argument in which the opinion of an authority on a topic is used as evidence to support an argument. It is well known as a fallacy, though some consider that it is used in a cogent form when all sides of a discussion agree on the reliability of the authority in the given context.[2][3] Other authors consider it a fallacy to cite an authority on the discussed topic as the primary means of supporting an argument.[4]

we got okie doked and half of Arfcom not only fell for it but are still falling for it.

Yep.

It's a more than a little embarrassing.

An appeal to authority often has other purposes.  And can be a fallacy.
But, dumbasses pretending to be smart blow off legitimate arguments from authority all the time.

The perfect ARFCOMMER example would be

Poster ILUV_ShootieGunz starts a thread-
“ I just bout the new ShootieGunZ AX15XXX SuperShooter and its way better than an AR 15.  The folding stock is super rugged, it has 100% total reliability, great accuracy, is the best of the piston designs, their 87 round drum mag is perfect, it fits like a glove, it’s perfect, it exceeds mil spec. “

The poster took a one day carbine course from a certified NRA instructor, owns a handful of guns, and does not have a case of ammo under his belt for his lifetime round count.

Poster GrumpyGenXShooter replies-
“We tested those when I was the OTC Sergeant Major and also oversaw R&D.  The stocks break too easy.  Reliability was less than an M4 same magazine to same magazine.  Something about the rapidly changeable barrel and design put the average Accuracy about 1.666 times that of the 416.  Their drum is problematic.  Ergonomics of the BHO, mag release, etc. put average Manual of arms tasks  and stage completion about 10% slower than an M4 or 416.  In both our testing and the dozen guys that used them for three gun on multiple outings, the stock either broke or stopped locking about a quarter of the time.  This gun is inferior to the M4 or 416, and a disadvantage in competition.”

ShootieGunz gets pissed and continues to argue.  Calling this appeal to authority a bullshit logical fallacy.
GrumpyGenX has three years in ranger BN, three years in SF, 22 years as an operator, is a state champ 3 gun guy, and runs a shooting school.  This is a legitimate argument from authority with real data and experience.

On the other hand, FrumpyGenX enters a lot of new pistol threads and rages against POS striker and DA/SA guns because of all his background and that the 1911 is the greatest of all hand weapons and is THE fighting pistol as God intended via the prophet JMB.  Data regarding overall reliability, maintenance, part failure round counts, etc. that shows objective, reproducible, irrefutable data is all blown off and dismissed by GenXshooter.  THIS is the logical fallacy example.

Italy...

It is massively overblown.  When we have real datasets it will be shown.  They've already hinted at this.  

Is it dangerous? Sure.  Especially to our most vulnerable.  So are many diseases.


Is it worth sending millions to the unemployment lines and shuttering tens of thousands of businesses, some permanently?  Absolutely not.

87

iF iT juSt sAVES oNE BOOMER...

It’s turning out that Covid 19 is a little bitch made flu wannabe. Hey on the bright side we got tons of hot nurses on the “front lines” doing tik tok videos.

Yep we fell for the old banana in the tail pipe.

Yeah, NYC is a special case... not only is there a high density, there's a very, VERY strong trend in the most dense areas of not cooking for yourself, but getting take-out or delivery at least once per day, if not every meal.  The apartments are just too tiny, kitchens are tiny, grocery stores aren't just down the block, a lot of them don't have cars, etc..  I think that alone is likely one factor that greatly increases their natrual R0.



Just Italy?  Not.... you know... the North of Italy? Because the South of Italy hasn't had the problems.

Evidently, when you have a location with a very old population, small housing with multiple generations living together, a culture with much less "personal space", very high rate of obesity and type 2, the worst air quality in all of Europe, an extremely high rate of chronic pulmonary disease, and respiratory ICUs that run 90-95% occupied in a NORMAL season... respiratory issues hit them harder.   Who would have thought?  Yet, despite being a nearly perfect storm for COVID... their COVID deaths are only about 60% of their average number of flu deaths.

It’s beautiful.

Not a doomer or a flu bro. Just pointing out how retarded some people are that they think they have the tiger by the tail here. I think nobody really truly knows. People are just throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks. Some people's guesses are more educated than others but I think we are still guessing. At this point though I really don't give a fuck what happens. I just want it over. I'm tried of sitting home. Let's get on with it already.

I don't give a shit how many die, the fact is more people die everyday than this bs that is going around. How many of you have kids? you really want to see it all go to shit to save a few lives? I'm gonna let you in on a little secret, the government doesn't care if you live or die it just wants to control you and it is achieving that very goal as we speak. Look at history and see how this all plays out, mandatory vaccines, rfid chips possible, do you really want your children to grow up in a dystopian future like that ? Stand your ground and tell them no!!

The government is incompetent.