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Posted: 11/12/2019 11:48:14 AM EDT
[#1]
I think they’re lost and have no idea what they’re doing.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 11:51:37 AM EDT
[#2]
They will accept the protests as long as the international media is watching. When the Hong Kong protests become old news, they'll start arresting protestors and they will be tried and imprisoned in mainland China. Eventually protests will stop out of fear.
I don't think a Tiananmen Square like event is likely due to the availability of electronics that could not only record, but live stream a violent crack down. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 11:53:34 AM EDT
[#3]
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 11:54:01 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 11:54:26 AM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
Post your predictions! Is there a specific trigger point they are waiting for? Like a policeman being killed, or a police station being burned down? Is it just a matter of time? Are they going to be willing to “wait and see” or are they going to crack down soon and try to “nip it in the bud” before it becomes too big to manage? How will they do it? Massive show of military force (like Tiannamom square), or infiltration of lots of plainclothes and undercover to kill protest leaders, etc., or something in between? |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:03:05 PM EDT
[#6]
When the Houston Rockets fall below .600.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:03:51 PM EDT
[#7]
they'll ignore it till it dies down on its own.
if no one budges eventually they'll get bored on their own. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:05:21 PM EDT
[#8]
It will literally look like this but with more tanks
 Dawn Of The Dead (2004) - Intro |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:07:29 PM EDT
[#9]
With the world watching they are playing a waiting game
Dead police might help their side |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:09:05 PM EDT
[#10]
As soon as Trump’s out of office
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:15:26 PM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
Post your predictions! Is there a specific trigger point they are waiting for? Like a policeman being killed, or a police station being burned down? Is it just a matter of time? Are they going to be willing to “wait and see” or are they going to crack down soon and try to “nip it in the bud” before it becomes too big to manage? How will they do it? Massive show of military force (like Tiannamom square), or infiltration of lots of plainclothes and undercover to kill protest leaders, etc., or something in between? |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:20:30 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:29:47 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think they’re lost and have no idea what they’re doing. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:30:50 PM EDT
[#14]
They don't have to "crack down" on anything.
Identify people, and once things calm down arrest and charge them. Just like our government did with the Bundy Fiasco. A simple exit ban on any identified people (which they already have heavily done) keeps them from running. Time ALWAYS favors the government. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:34:52 PM EDT
[#15]
Containment and slow roll.
Mainland Security agencies black ops , can't imagine it's not already in action. Mainland agents making protesters go missing "Kidnapping" , " accidentally" deaths and black mail would be the slow and sure way to tamp it down. Chinese can play the long game pretty well. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:35:51 PM EDT
[#16]
I think they want to false flag something but can't figure out how to get away with it in the digital age when everyone has a streaming camera on them.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:36:16 PM EDT
[#17]
I'm honestly surprised police aren't being stabbed. If you watch videos most of them seem to have zero situational awareness.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:42:17 PM EDT
[#18]
China’s biggest issue here is collateral damage... with very, very valuable collateral. Going in hard could cost them billions (not even considering the international response).
HK is the mother of all cash cows for a China. They have to figure out how get the bull out the china shop (pun intended), but there’s a bunch of bulls, they move fast, and they’re hard to tell apart from the china. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:44:28 PM EDT
[#19]
China is in a tough spot, if they do a hard crack down it could cripple their economy.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:45:13 PM EDT
[#20]
China plays the very long game. HK protestors are nothing more than a minor side note.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:50:11 PM EDT
[#21]
It will happen at night over the course of several weeks to several months. Each night a few organizers and people in the upper ranks of the demonstration will slowly disappear. People will fill those ranks but they too will slowly disappear. Eventually the unspoken message will reach the rest of the protestors and poof their desire to organize and resist Beijing will dissolve.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:50:30 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on.  Attached File |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:53:22 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
China is in a tough spot, if they do a hard crack down it could cripple their economy. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:55:29 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
China plays the very long game. HK protestors are nothing more than a minor side note. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:56:49 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
From what I've been watching I'm not so sure that's the case. Hong Kong's importance is way down w/ the other special economic zone cities like Shenzhen they've created. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
China is in a tough spot, if they do a hard crack down it could cripple their economy. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:59:36 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
As soon as Trump’s out of office With any luck, they will think long and hard about a crackdown and understand that it has potentially far reaching negative consequences, especially for trade. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 12:59:54 PM EDT
[#27]
China can't do anything without pissing off literally everybody and destabilizing world financial markets, but when Xi the Pooh finally decides that he's lost too much face, they're gonna roll armor and start slaughtering anyone that doesn't do what they say.
They've already let it go on too long to get under control. The evidence of that was that the protesters got what they wanted with the extradition bill retracted, but they're still going because they didn't like the feel of that particular boot that close to their neck. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:00:26 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on. If HK magically disappeared from all communication, people would think China nuked it, how does that help them? |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:00:52 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Shenzhen only exists because of Hong Kong. Take the westernizing legitimization HK provides, and Shenzhen collapses. Cracking down in HK pretty much kills any incrementalist victories they have in Southeast Asia or on Taiwan. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:01:31 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They don't have to "crack down" on anything. Identify people, and once things calm down arrest and charge them. Just like our government did with the Bundy Fiasco. A simple exit ban on any identified people (which they already have heavily done) keeps them from running. Time ALWAYS favors the government. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:09:18 PM EDT
[#31]
One thing is for sure, our own deep state is watching closely and whatever successes or failures China has will be forever stored in the playbook for dealing with us.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:09:41 PM EDT
[#32]
They already started about 45 days ago. China’s PLA People’s Armed Police are imbedded with HK police, we picked up on it from the live broadcasts, PAP are nasty and brutal. If you look close enough, the PAP are taller, in better shape, and younger than HK police.
China will continue to imbed mainland forces, so when there is a massacre, China will not claim responsibility. That’s how they do..... |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:11:34 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Agreed. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:13:17 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think they want to false flag something but can't figure out how to get away with it in the digital age when everyone has a streaming camera on them. It's crazy how cell phone cameras/social media have likely stopped a potential massacre at this point. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:15:07 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They don't have to "crack down" on anything. Identify people, and once things calm down arrest and charge them. Just like our government did with the Bundy Fiasco. A simple exit ban on any identified people (which they already have heavily done) keeps them from running. Time ALWAYS favors the government. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:16:15 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on. We’re not talking about tribal goat fuckers here...these are electronically smart folks with plenty of resources for video...etc. My guess is they’ll work more quietly in the background to avoid international eyes / pressure. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:17:57 PM EDT
[#37]
IMO, losing control of HK, and having it turn into a “second Taiwan” that breaks away from the mainland (and receives military aid from the West) is the worst nightmare for China. They simply cannot allow that to happen.
If China sees any realistic possibility if that happening in HK, they will crack down HARD, and not give a shit about world opinion, IMO. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:18:26 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There also appear to be semi-credible claims that the government has been using criminal gangs to attack protestors, and in at least one case, possible kill them. Quote HistoryQuoted: There also appear to be semi-credible claims that the government has been using criminal gangs to attack protestors, and in at least one case, possible kill them. The "dangerous class," the social scum, that passively rotting mass thrown off by the lowest layers of old society, may, here and there, be swept into the movement by a proletarian revolution; its conditions of life, however, prepare it far more for the part of a bribed tool of reactionary intrigue. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:19:38 PM EDT
[#39]
Slow bleed by eliminating leadership, punctuated by episodic violence to remind them not to go too far.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:26:15 PM EDT
[#40]
I don't know how it will end other than I predict HK-ers lose. They either have a successful revolution or lose, that's where they are.
I also predict that the American voter is too stupid, too pacifistic, too stoned, too self-absorbed, etc. to care about HK, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, or any other place around the globe. This voter base will elect candidates who cater to this lack of care. Which Democrat candidate would do anything about Taiwan? Some of them might blather out some wonkish answer but none of them have the fundament to take action. Trump might follow through with a hard China split, but he would face tremendous self-interested ($$$) opposition. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:26:21 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
IMO, losing control of HK, and having it turn into a “second Taiwan” that breaks away from the mainland (and receives military aid from the West) is the worst nightmare for China. They simply cannot allow that to happen. If China sees any realistic possibility if that happening in HK, they will crack down HARD, and not give a shit about world opinion, IMO. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:27:23 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think they’re lost and have no idea what they’re doing. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:37:15 PM EDT
[#43]
They fired these into the crowds at Tiananmen square
 ZU 23-2 AA gun firing. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:39:15 PM EDT
[#44]
When the Chinese government starts burning tires and oil to block ISR, it's about to go down.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:41:29 PM EDT
[#45]
I think the PRC is shit scared of Trump. If they pull another Tiananmen Square, Trump could gut their nascent economy. They don't want their baby middle class suddenly pissed off and wanting their WallyWorld back.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:43:03 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
IMO, losing control of HK, and having it turn into a “second Taiwan” that breaks away from the mainland (and receives military aid from the West) is the worst nightmare for China. They simply cannot allow that to happen. If China sees any realistic possibility if that happening in HK, they will crack down HARD, and not give a shit about world opinion, IMO. The problem is what happens when ALL Five Poisons go high order at once? I bet the Chinese have the ass manage four of the five, but none can be allowed to succeed. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:44:51 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
When it does go down, the Chinese will cut ALL comm links, even satellite. The outside world won't have a clue as to what is going on. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 1:47:00 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think the PRC is shit scared of Trump. If they pull another Tiananmen Square, Trump could gut their nascent economy. They don't want their baby middle class suddenly pissed off and wanting their WallyWorld back. The Universities and colleges would scream, because they love those full price cash Chinese students, but TFB. What the Chinese really fear are religious zealots and student protests. Student protests would happen if there are no jobs, or the ability to go overseas disappears. Rheostating the Chinese to create tensions among Chinese students would be a great policy. |
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Posted: 11/12/2019 2:10:20 PM EDT
[#49]
You'd think by now they would have Shanghaied some of the organisers up to Beijing for show trials where they tearfully confess their manipulation and backing by Western intelligence agencies.
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Posted: 11/12/2019 2:14:06 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And then what? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
IMO, losing control of HK, and having it turn into a “second Taiwan” that breaks away from the mainland (and receives military aid from the West) is the worst nightmare for China. They simply cannot allow that to happen. If China sees any realistic possibility if that happening in HK, they will crack down HARD, and not give a shit about world opinion, IMO. 
Hong Kong trying to tear away and become another Taiwan is something that China will avoid at ALL COSTS. Emphasis on "all costs" - even if it severely damages their economy, they will still crack down hard in a heartbeat, if they think that's where the situation is going. Plus, they know how interconnected their economy has become with the west, and they know big US corporations with huge investments in China will |
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