Dog, I want whatever you’re smoking. “Ukraine is winning”

If?? We did.

And yet, it's not destroyed like everything the Ukr media claims.

It's like saying Diabetes didn't get me yet, I still have my legs from the knees up

If it all froze right now and became permanent, you would consider this a win?

Because best case that's what happens. I think putin sees weakness in the US and keeps fighting but maybe he'd accept peace...for a little while.

I'm skeptical that any significant funding gets done in congress before the election. Unless dems cave on the border.

For once Republicans have a stronger hand.

You're probably right, because the west hasn't had the will to pain ourselves when inflicting economic pain on the Russians.  That said, our public/political will likely isn't near what the average Russian endures in daily life.  Just because I'd like to see Russian collapse doesn't make it so, esp when that's not what the State Dept pines for.

And yet, some in GD will still not read them. They then start arguing with him months later on the very same topic.

crazy

If winning is defined as they have prevented the Russians from taking all of Ukraine.

Unless this turns into another Afghanistan for them, which is unlikely since Ukraine is now a war of attrition and not a counter-insurgency vs. insurgency, the Russians are going to at least end up with the DPR, LPR, and Crimea.

Ukraines war against Russia ...

Fucking propagandist at CNBC don't you ever change!

If true this is a full U turn from previous Team Biden statements

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

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Yes, they have been commie tripe for quite some time.

When the Allies landed in Normandy did the simply dry their shoes, jump in their Tanks/Truck/Half-Track, and take a leisurely drive to Berlin?

Did Washington wake up day one of the Revolution and just win?

I could go for pages…

No, for the most part peer to peer wars take time. They go back & forth. If you follow them based on who has lost or gained one insignificant town or hill there is a good chance you won’t know which side is winning.

This isn't GW1 or GW2 fighting poorly equipped, poorly led, poorly supplied Third World armies fifty years behind us.

You've been asked multiple times to present a strategy where Ukraine could "win" and what exactly does your description of "winning" look like?  I'd love to hear it, given your bonafides on the matter.

These are my favorite posts in the RUS/UKR arguments.

Any one with half a brain cell saw this coming a long time ago. The people spreading BS and saying any one acknowledging said BS was a Putin Stooge have a weird take on this. Its like if they say some BS enough its gonna be true.  But when this ends the reason Ukraine loses this conflict is going to be because of the Media and Disloyal Americans.

Its weird.

Isn't it rather simple?

Hold the line, deny Russia any further meaningful advances, deny Ukrainian air space to them, Break the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports, make the Temporary Occupation of Crimea untenable, eliminate Sebastopol as a Russian Navy base, continue massive scale disruption of Russian logistics. ETC, ETC, ETC.

The UAF has gone from under 300,000 to slightly over a million men.

Isn’t that what Ukraine is currently doing?

Russia cannot keep this up forever. Sooner or later a hallowed out poor morale Russian army will break. It’s happened plenty of times in the past. The long game favors Ukraine, they have 50+ countries directly supporting them with economies over 60 trillion, Russia has a few almost worthless “Allies” North Korea, Iran, Syria, Yemen, and a few frenemies who take advantage of Russia: China, Belarus, etc.

The Russian economy if you believe the numbers is/was 1.5 trillion. Again, the long game favors Ukraine. Russia only has so many T.V. sets they can steal circuit boards out of…

I no longer care which side wins.

The sooner it's over American taxpayer dollars will stop enriching zelenski.

So your plan is they win a static war of attrition against Russia? That's an interesting strategy, considering it's almost universally accepted that this is absolutely not tenable.

I've got some bad news for you. Ukraine is on the ropes resource wise, and Russia is not.

You still haven't defined what a Ukrainian victory entails. Russia walking out of Crimea of their own accord? What about all the land east of the Dnieper?  Is Russia supposed to walk out of that in this magical fantasy scenario?





No, what they are currently doing is trying to fight for inches of regained ground, which they are now consistently losing.



I don't think you really have a solid grasp on the long game here.

This info was true maybe a year ago. The Russian industrial base has completely started building into a wartime economy with Chinese backing. They have no problems getting electronics or components now, and are standing up massive factories deep inside Russia. They just got a 6 month pause to get all caught up on it.

Even if Ukraine's pipe dream of building a defense manufacturing base within the country comes to fruition every inch of it will be bombed on a regular basis.  Those cheap drones they want to make will have to be subsidized by $3-5 million Patriot missiles at every location.




Lol, these massive economies can be boiled down to 2-3 that provide meaningful support, all of whom are looking like they are going to stop real soon.  Those "worthless allies" of Russia started a war on their behalf and successfully bogged down almost all of the external support Ukraine has.  Europe on the other hand is arguing about giving loans or grants in 2025, most of which probably won't happen anyway.

So let's try this again, what is a REALISTIC way for Ukraine to win this, using factual and current information?

I understand Mr. Zelenskyy. We are losing our southern border here…

This is the Iran-Iraq war. No one is winning, and it's obvious.

I can only conclude we should send hundreds of billions more.

I'm hoping the Russians invade us from the South. Maybe we'll be serious about re-establishing our border.

If World War 2 Germany could not defeat Russia, then how could 2023 Ukraine defeat Russia?

This is how I feel too.  We've been broke but a purpose of the war is to continue the brrrrrrrrrr! to sustain the financial system.  Fiat Currency fractional reserve banking requires the perpetual expansion of the currency supply because it dies if it doesn't.  Then again, it's reaching a point where it'll collapse anyway and we're near that point.  If we were to brrrrrrrr! I wish the money was spent on ourselves (roads/bridges/railroads) instead of foreign follies.  I hope the Uke-bois enjoy America's poverty.  That's what plan is.

(1.) I don't care what is "Universally Accepted" by mostly people who don't understand.

The current Russian Army is not the Red Army of 1942 with tens of millions of available conscripts scared shitless their whole neighborhood with be burnt to the ground f they say no. The FSB isn't the NKVD, Putin while a dictator does not have Stalin like power. The economy is slipping, the Ruble is dropping.

Why do you suppose it's called a "Special Military Operation" and not simply an "Invasion"? Why do they do bare minimum if that "Mobilizations" vs. old school conscription? Why are these "Mobilizations" almost exclusively done in Rural/Eastern Military Districts and kept far away from the power centers of Moscow & St. Petersburg?

HINT: Russia isn’t a superpower anymore. Putin knows an “Invasion’ would be wildly unpopular at home. The Russian government is not immune to high casualties anymore. They know they are vulnerable.

The current 130,000 yearly call up for compulsory military service will bring in 130,000 new faces. That wouldn’t even come close to replaces losses on the Ukrainian Front. They are getting hallowed out, under equipped by long vulnerable supply lines. Moral is poor and units D level at best, meaning not for offensives except for a few VDV brigades, independent Spetsnaz brigades/regiments, and a very select few Mechanized/Tank Brigades.

(2.) Your version of the long game has Russia able to keep up with America, NATO, and 20-30 other countries production?

Good luck. Way too much future Western money has been bet on Ukraine to let them fail.

We only have the current stalemate because Ukraine has been building the UAF from under 300,000 to over a million. Training, equipping, deploying, etc. That takes time. Ukraine has 4-5 more completely mobile brigades being build up as we speak.
Russia has compensated for its poor condition army by hiding behind huge minefields. Unfortunately, from them though they limit its movement as much as Ukraine’s.

(3.) I don't buy for a second anybody is going to abandon Ukraine. In this war with literally billions being spent on propaganda you can't believe everything. Ukraine has denied it’s airspace to the Russians incredibly well so far. I see ZERO reasons to believe that’s going to change.

Ultimately my realistic expectations:
Russia will be forced back / withdraw to the 2022 borders. I predict they will crack. Those long and very vulnerable logistical lines are killing them. Maybe 1917 collapse?
Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will remain in conflict. They are a tough nut to crack, as they were in 1942-1943, and again 1914-2023.

Uhhh, yes.  Especially considering America, NATO and all those other countries have effectively done jack shit to increase production besides talk two years in.

This is no longer a maneuver war, it's a fires war.  Once China declared overt support for Russian industrialization the balance of capacity is no longer a question.




Please provide some sort of proof of Ukraines massive successful mobilization.  So far the only data suggesting that is you.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/19/europe/ukraine-difficulties-in-military-recruitment-intl/index.html

The Russian minefield defense is literally an integral part of their doctrine, I thought you would know that being as learned as you are.

LOL

Production isn't increasing?

Hint: Much of the money totals you see thrown around in the press isn't simply being spent in Ukraine. It's being spent ramping up production aboard to feed the war effort.

Google it for yourself.

The UAF now numbers slightly over a million.

Again, these aren't top secret numbers.

Not minefields thrown out like this. They are a sign of desperation. Limit Russian forward movement every bit as much as Ukrainians.

I am sorry my knowledge on the subject offends you...Not.

Hint: All that money hasn't started much of anything yet, most especially abroad. They added third shifts to artillery production in the US, meaning we are putting out a weeks worth of Ukrainian expenditures a month.  Everything past that has been all talk.  You can google that, since it's all been posted here for you to read hundreds of times.  Your "knowledge" is quick looks of propagandized articles that you don't even understand the timelines or veracity of.  

But here's some HINTS:

https://apnews.com/article/weapons-production-ukraine-russia-war-west-military-f9031fbd4b430a881563235550256e75

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-has-upper-hand-arms-race-with-west-russian-minister-says-2023-12-25/

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/04/europe/uk-nato-ukraine-war-ammunition-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/captured-russian-weapons-an-ammo-crisis-and-a-new-nato-ally-5-stories-from-europe-in-2023/

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-military-industry-defense-buildup-war/

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/politics/us-weapon-stocks-ukraine/index.html


I also just provided you a link showing Ukraines manpower issues, you provided nothing.  I'll give it you again.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/19/europe/ukraine-difficulties-in-military-recruitment-intl/index.html

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/12/17/ukraines-army-is-struggling-to-find-good-recruits

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66542065

yeah

Congrats.

In a big war with a quickly expanding UAF they are having manning issues. Thats a surprise to you?

So do the Russians.

Ukraine will overcome them..

It takes time to ramp production but its coming.



If Russia is "Winning" why aren't they advancing? If production is so great why are they still only able to build 20-30 missiles a month?

Hint: Quoting Russia on Russian production isn't always accurate.

Wait, I thought the Ukrainian army was good to go?

So we are back to you just making opinion based statements devoid of any factual sources?  AKA just making shit up?

Honestly it feels like the Russians are forcing us to spend ourselves into Balkanization.

Like what we did to them.

So what I've read in this thread sounds like all the world's greatest economies can't stop a podunk backwater from gaining ground.

I haven't quoted Russia on anything.  We have identified the new factories they are producing and have some pretty good estimations of timelines.

Damn man, you really aren't very good at this, are you?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ramps-up-output-some-military-hardware-by-more-than-tenfold-state-company-2023-09-19/

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ramping-up-war-production/32658857.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-29/russia-ramps-up-drone-output-as-war-stokes-industrial-growth

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/09/russia-sanctions-weapons-technology-exports-evasion-arms-production-missiles-chips/

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufacturing-ukraine-west-officials-2023-9

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753

https://tass.com/defense/1526773?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com

Also as someone who's been privy to some things. Yall better listen to daemon734.

What he's saying and the credentials he purports to have match up much better than what some of you others are saying.

Do you read your links?

It literally says nothing.

Yes, Ukraine is having to do conscription. No, not every single Ukrainian male is happy about it. Yes, they closed the border and stop Military Aged Males from leaving.

These seem like huge issues to you?

It’s a war of national survival. Nothing points to a UAF collpase.

Maybe it is to a CNN writer but historically all of those issues are commonplace.

LOL

He googles and dumps links he hasn't read. Many don't match his agenda, he is just dumping them on to overwhelm.

A CNN article by some NYC freelance writer who got $200 for it about how "Not All Ukraniane Men Want To Fight".....means nothing.

It's been that way all through history. Enough will fight.

Russia also has equal to if not worse manpower issues.

Any of those links not come from Russian goverment press releases or use them as the sole source?

FYI: They mean nothing.

They are press releases.

"Putin Ordered"

"Russian Minister Says"

"Russia Minister Reported"

I get the feeling you aren't actually reading any of them. You are just cut & pasting titles & links to overwelm.

Your avatar is fitting for this thread.

S/F

So give me some proof to refute anything I have posted. Like literally anything.  You said to google it, so I did.  It did not work out in your favor.

The only thing you have done so far is tell us you read some books and we should just trust you, however you have been pretty much completely wrong on just about every single assertion you have made so far.

Did Russia make the claim that Europe is woefully short of it's stated munitions targets?

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/14/ukraine-artillery-shells-eu-target-germany-boris-pistorius

When does Kiev fall?

This is the most delusional post I have ever seen.

You're out of your element Donny.

Which part? It’s spot on.

And they produce nothing but fuel.

Russia is going to bankrupt itself.

TIL: Don't come to GD for opinions on Ukraine/Russia war.

I disagree.  They had a better than average chance but Zelensky is a psychotic lunatic whose strategy was taken from Kaiser's handbook circa 1914.  Worse Putin appears to be even more psychotic and is seemingly perfectly happy to get rid of convicts and non-desirabless by throwing into the Ukraine meat grinder.  Not too mention numerous missteps by Biden, first of which being freezing everything Russia related through swift; not only did this not hurt Putin, but overnight it removed active domestic opposition to Putin from everyday people not protesting because they now have to figure out how they're going to feed their families to oligarchs who no longer have access to their significant resources.

etc... etc.... and on and on.   I'm not saying a bunch of douchebags are intentionally dragging out conflict; I honestly think they are just that f'n dumb, but I am unsure what they would do different if they were trying to drag it out.

That's what they wanted you to think. The only thing this "war" was about was providing the US an excuse to go into Ukraine to clean up their money laundering ops and bio labs. Those actions appear to have been completed, so support seems to be "waning" in terms of continuing the operation.

Where are our Uke Bros at, by the way? I miss their MSNBC-contrived statements.

Wasn't Putin supposed to be dead of aids, Lou Gehrig's disease, and uterine cancer by now?

Which part, the one where Ukraine is going to win a war of attrition, or where the west is going to suddenly outproduce Russia/China?

lol.