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Link Posted: 2/20/2013 3:41:39 AM EST
[#1]
Quoted:
Quoted:
I see your point RRA but to lump the seniors into the same category as the generational welfare recipients is just wrong. They were duped forced at gunpoint into paying into the system and now all they want is 'some' return on their investment. No different than negotiating a settlement with your creditors.



Question: How do the events in South Africa after apartheid was abolished compare to what is happening with the economy in this country - not the racial issues just the economic issues? Do they give any indicators of how our country's issues may play out over the next decade or so?

If that question is way off base let me know and I will erase it.




Negative. They were not forced at gunpoint. When SS was started they only had to pay 1% of their income into the system. And remember, at the time we were still an agrarian society so most of the people still produced most of their own food and bartered for a decent amount of other goods and services. These were not counted toward that 1% tax.

Link Posted: 2/20/2013 3:47:07 AM EST
[#2]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
I see your point RRA but to lump the seniors into the same category as the generational welfare recipients is just wrong. They were duped forced at gunpoint into paying into the system and now all they want is 'some' return on their investment someone else to be forced at gunpoint so they can get paid.  No different than working your way up in the mafia than negotiating a settlement with your creditors.


Question: How do the events in South Africa after apartheid was abolished compare to what is happening with the economy in this country - not the racial issues just the economic issues? Do they give any indicators of how our country's issues may play out over the next decade or so?

If that question is way off base let me know and I will erase it.



In what way do you imagine its like South Africa's apartheid?   I just want to understand your question before I attempt an answer.  


The general uprising against the government and people of means as well as the governments response when things start to fall apart.

We have already seen a lot of the backlash come out against corporate America.

I do agree with the current state of the SS fiasco. People are forced at 'gunpoint' to pay into the current ponzi scheme to keep it going. It was a self supporting solvent system until the government started down the road of deficit spending and heard the siren's song of that enormous pile of money just sitting there.
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 8:08:23 AM EST
[#3]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I see your point RRA but to lump the seniors into the same category as the generational welfare recipients is just wrong. They were duped forced at gunpoint into paying into the system and now all they want is 'some' return on their investment. No different than negotiating a settlement with your creditors.



Question: How do the events in South Africa after apartheid was abolished compare to what is happening with the economy in this country - not the racial issues just the economic issues? Do they give any indicators of how our country's issues may play out over the next decade or so?

If that question is way off base let me know and I will erase it.




Negative. They were not forced at gunpoint. When SS was started they only had to pay 1% of their income into the system. And remember, at the time we were still an agrarian society so most of the people still produced most of their own food and bartered for a decent amount of other goods and services. These were not counted toward that 1% tax.



Try not paying those taxes, and see how that works for you.  
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 9:33:06 AM EST
[#4]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:




I see your point RRA but to lump the seniors into the same category as the generational welfare recipients is just wrong. They were duped forced at gunpoint into paying into the system and now all they want is 'some' return on their investment someone else to be forced at gunpoint so they can get paid.  No different than working your way up in the mafia than negotiating a settlement with your creditors.
Question: How do the events in South Africa after apartheid was abolished compare to what is happening with the economy in this country - not the racial issues just the economic issues? Do they give any indicators of how our country's issues may play out over the next decade or so?
If that question is way off base let me know and I will erase it.






In what way do you imagine its like South Africa's apartheid?   I just want to understand your question before I attempt an answer.  

The general uprising against the government and people of means as well as the governments response when things start to fall apart.
We have already seen a lot of the backlash come out against corporate America.
I do agree with the current state of the SS fiasco. People are forced at 'gunpoint' to pay into the current ponzi scheme to keep it going. It was a self supporting solvent system until the government started down the road of deficit spending and heard the siren's song of that enormous pile of money just sitting there.









I don't think there will be any popular uprising against the political class, and oligarchy.   For one reason, the political class is so very large.  It is comprised of more then the political elite, if you consider the "total government", including the state and local governments, a tremendous number of people derive significant direct financial benefit from government.  These people will not "revolt" against the hand that feeds them. Then add to these numbers the subsidized poor.  As pathetic and hopeless as their situation is, they will not rise up against the hand that feeds, clothes, and houses them.  They may riot from time to time for MORE benefit (i.e. MORE GOVERNMENT), but they won't rebel in large numbers unless the government doesn't pay them.   And the government has already demonstrated it's willing to mortgage the lives of future generations to subsidize the present through deficit spending.  So they'll always be paid just enough to keep them settled.  












Those people completely independent of government are shrinking, and a lot of them are bought off, by the promise of future benefits.  Also we are indoctrinated from an early age to revere and obey the government, and those associated with it.  We are taught on an individual level that the initiation of violence, and use of violent coercion is morally wrong, but morally right if done by those individuals who work in government.   We accept that government can threaten you with guns and take your money or freedom, or use violence to make you obey.  20 children killed by a crazy shooter and we lose it, tens of thousands of children killed or injured in one of our nation-building projects and we hardly notice.  We don't even see the violence carried out by individuals who work for government as "violence", because it is whitewashed in the sacred image of our ideals.  People will not rise until there is a total and complete breakdown which eliminates government's ability to provide.  I'm not sure if even a monetary collapse would do it.













I fear even a total and complete monetary collapse might not be a return to individual liberty.  I fear people would cling to government, and surrender completely all liberty to tyranny.  I fear that government actually grows during the final death-rattle of the current system.  Big Brother was born in the 1930's, why should we suspect he goes away in a second "Great Depression"?   I think we fall into tyranny.   Will there be violence?  Yes.  Lots and lots of violence.  Will we return to our ideals?  I'm afraid not.      












I think you're right about SS being a fiasco, although I believe scam is a better word for what it has ALWAYS been, But I'll let Milton Friedman address that:






































 



 
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 10:47:49 AM EST
[#5]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I see your point RRA but to lump the seniors into the same category as the generational welfare recipients is just wrong. They were duped forced at gunpoint into paying into the system and now all they want is 'some' return on their investment. No different than negotiating a settlement with your creditors.



Question: How do the events in South Africa after apartheid was abolished compare to what is happening with the economy in this country - not the racial issues just the economic issues? Do they give any indicators of how our country's issues may play out over the next decade or so?

If that question is way off base let me know and I will erase it.




Negative. They were not forced at gunpoint. When SS was started they only had to pay 1% of their income into the system. And remember, at the time we were still an agrarian society so most of the people still produced most of their own food and bartered for a decent amount of other goods and services. These were not counted toward that 1% tax.



Try not paying those taxes, and see how that works for you.  


AGREED!

In the beginning it was the general consensus of 'meh...it's only a penny on the dollar' (average income was $1,600). That money was then put into a solvent fund and the only people that were losing out were the ones that didn't contribute. But times have changed in that now it is a ponzi scheme that is dependent on the constant influx of 'money' to keep paying out the benefits to those whose benefits were taken and given an IOU.

Basically the system has gone 180 degrees in that now the only people who lose out are the ones who have/do contribute.

I don't blame those on SS for wanting the return that was promised (and then stolen) on their investment.


ETA - as I understand it the Amish do not pay SS tax because it is their religious belief that they take care of their own elderly or something like that. YMMV
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 11:09:02 AM EST
[#6]





Quoted:





AGREED!





In the beginning it was the general consensus of 'meh...it's only a penny on the dollar' (average income was $1,600). That money was then put into a solvent fund and the only people that were losing out were the ones that didn't contribute. But times have changed in that now it is a ponzi scheme that is dependent on the constant influx of 'money' to keep paying out the benefits to those whose benefits were taken and given an IOU.





Basically the system has gone 180 degrees in that now the only people who lose out are the ones who have/do contribute.





I don't blame those on SS for wanting the return that was promised (and then stolen) on their investment.
ETA - as I understand it the Amish do not pay SS tax because it is their religious belief that they take care of their own elderly or something like that. YMMV





Ironic isn't it.  At one time everyone believed families took care of their own.  Now it's just some quaint and rare "Amish" religious practice.  

 






People wonder what has happened to personal responsibility, and "family values".  Big Brother/ Big Daddy /Big Mommy/Nanny government has stepped into the picture.  I blame almost all of our problems on the Progressive Movement that began in the 1890's, and never ended.  It was at this point that people in government first became more then just an umpire, or protectors of individual freedom, and became a "wise, and powerful parental surrogate".  







All of society now seems to suffer from the "bystander effect" or Genovese syndrome.   We don't take personal responsibility, even for ourselves or our family, we expect "the government" (as if it was some sort of divine guardian) to be responsible.    











 
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 6:15:43 PM EST
[#7]
Does this show US just how Relevant OUR Dollar still is?

I still contend, after realizing QE has had Zero effect on OUR Real Economy, OUR Free-Markets will demand a Strong Dollar & then what will OUR Faux 'Saviors' do?





Stocks Drop Most In 2013 As Gold Is Crucified On The Death Cross




Biggest jump in VIX in 2013; biggest plunge in
Homebuilders in 8 months (as TOL misses and Starts were ugly); biggest
dump in stocks in 2013; Gold plunges to $1565 and suffers Death Cross; USD soars and crosses above its 200DMA; and oil has frantic flash crash early on.


Market Reaction To FOMC Minutes




USD Up (inverted), Gold Down, Treasury yields Up, Oil Up, Stocks Flat...







Link Posted: 2/20/2013 6:41:45 PM EST
[#8]
Gold is headed to buy price.
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 6:42:02 PM EST
[#9]







Quoted:
Quoted:
AGREED!
In the beginning it was the general consensus of 'meh...it's only a penny on the dollar' (average income was $1,600). That money was then put into a solvent fund and the only people that were losing out were the ones that didn't contribute. But times have changed in that now it is a ponzi scheme that is dependent on the constant influx of 'money' to keep paying out the benefits to those whose benefits were taken and given an IOU.
Basically the system has gone 180 degrees in that now the only people who lose out are the ones who have/do contribute.
I don't blame those on SS for wanting the return that was promised (and then stolen) on their investment.
ETA - as I understand it the Amish do not pay SS tax because it is their religious belief that they take care of their own elderly or something like that. YMMV







Ironic isn't it.  At one time everyone believed families took care of their own.  Now it's just some quaint and rare "Amish" religious practice.      









People wonder what has happened to personal responsibility, and "family values".  Big Brother/ Big Daddy /Big Mommy/Nanny government has stepped into the picture.  I blame almost all of our problems on the Progressive Movement that began in the 1890's, and never ended.  It was at this point that people in government first became more then just an umpire, or protectors of individual freedom, and became a "wise, and powerful parental surrogate".  










All of society now seems to suffer from the "bystander effect" or Genovese syndrome.   We don't take personal responsibility, even for ourselves or our family, we expect "the government" (as if it was some sort of divine guardian) to be responsible.    














 




'Bystander Effect', who in the heck taught you this?


It explains a lot.





I assume the .Gov has purposely kept this hush, hush...Could you imagine what will happen to Disability Insurance Funds, after 95% of the population uses this as an excuse for their shortcomings...





SS, Obamacare Tax, along with all other Taxes/Funds have been used to Leverage OUR disproportionate 'Wealth'.


.Gov always assumed the Revenue Generated would always cover the Interest Payments, best case scenario; No one ever seems to Forecast the Worst case scenarios.





I've 'learned' this , from the 'Wisdom' past on by OUR Political Pimps...
 
 
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 7:00:22 PM EST
[#10]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:

<snip>

Absolutely true.
The problem is the damage is done. What are the chances that a 2nd - 3rd - 4th generation 30+ year old welfare recipient who never knew their father, never worked a day in their life and functions at a 3rd grade level in reading/writing skills will ever be able to function in society? There are millions in that category and short of a miracle they will never be rehabilitated to function as independent self sustaining individuals. That is the crime committed by LBJ and his kind and that crime is now visited on all of us.


Sad, but all true. What the Democrats did to black America cannot be undone.


LBJ's seed has born exactly the type of fruit he wanted.  It was a masterful plan and it worked just like he wanted.  


Someone needs to warn the hispanics.  They're in the "On deck circle".
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 8:30:21 PM EST
[#11]
Quoted:
I see your point RRA but to lump the seniors into the same category as the generational welfare recipients is just wrong. They were duped into paying into the system and now all they want is 'some' return on their investment. No different than negotiating a settlement with your creditors.



Question: How do the events in South Africa after apartheid was abolished compare to what is happening with the economy in this country - not the racial issues just the economic issues? Do they give any indicators of how our country's issues may play out over the next decade or so?

If that question is way off base let me know and I will erase it.


Others have posted - but no, it's very, very similar.

I see seniors all day long, and although I don't claim my informal surveys to be conclusive (anymore than anyone else generalizes here) - on average, collectively their interests are  very much self-centered and they have ZERO interest in looking beyond their own checks cashing each month.   Many of the ghetto goblins are young, and essentially byproducts of the ills of the Welfare State many pretend don't exist (I expect them to be ignorant, myopic animals hunting for the next handout).   The difference is that our Seniors KNEW BETTER.  

The fact that most of them paid into the system is no different than any of the rest of us paying into the system and [hoping] to get a return on that sum.   The difference is that the Baby Boomer generation lapped up Big Brother and social safety nets at every turn - they OWN this much more than any other generation, IMHO, because A: they grew up seeing the world in a way that taught them to know better, B: they grew up in a value system based on ethic and personal responsibility and C: they threw their values and their life experiences away in turn for empty political promises and to keep voting for the same politicians who gave the Majority exactly. what. they. wanted.  

And here we are.

Don't get me wrong - we're ALL sharing blame here, and we're ALL going to suffer...  just some to different degrees than others in both blame and suffering.    It's also hard because people respond emotionally on very personal levels.   People reading this think I'm blaming their Grandma for everything...     When, in reality I'm blaming Grandma's generation when they were the working class a half-dozen decades ago...  turning away from community, personal responsibility and individual accountability for the lures and promises of a "guaranteed" return and the safety of nationalist programs and centrally organized utopia...  the same kinds of things they fought wars over to keep off our shores a few decades before that.

ETA:   to be clear -  just making a point that there's plenty of blame to go around (and it isn't just the stereotypical welfare queens); at the end of the day I hate just about everybody equally.   I am an equal-opportunity Hater,.  
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 8:40:32 PM EST
[#12]
RRA_223, I agree. My dad would go on hours long rants about how the .gov is *you name it*. When I point out that SS is pretty much what started it, he turns all "Hands of my .gov money".
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 9:31:12 PM EST
[#13]
But remember, things like SS were sold as a "retirement fund" that just happened to be run by the .gov. Look at all the propaganda from the SS Admin. Look at how the glad-handing politicians have treated it for decades. It's always been treated as a pension fund that's run by this group called the Social Security Administration (like that made it NOT a .gov agency or something). SS taxes have ALWAYS been just taxes, SS payments have ALWAYS been just welfare payments to recipients and all the rest was just political pablum to disguise it being a communist inspired program. Along the way, disingenuous politicians have used the carrot and stick approach to getting seniors to vote for them by promising higher bribes in the form of SS payments. As the demographics have changed and the cost of the bribery has increased, some people are claiming the "system is becoming insolvent". THERE IS NO SYSTEM AND IT WAS NEVER SOLVENT!!!

The bottom line is that whether you want to talk about SS or Medicare (both of which are tax and spend programs), or any of the other falsely named "entitlement" programs, the fact is that there is not enough money to pay for what has been promised RIGHT NOW, and there will be less likelihood of being able to pay for them in the future. This is especially true considering that Ocommiecare hasn't even begun to hit the treasury up for the money to pay for all that's been promised. That which cannot be done will not be. As to whether the cuts in these programs come as a result of thoughtful reformation of them or as a result of a complete .gov default and consequent economic collapse, has yet to be determined. Make no mistake, these programs WILL be cut drastically because they have to be. What many of us are debating is whether an insolvent .gov will take the economy down or whether the economy, ruined by idiotic policies and lack of enforcement of basic free market protections, will ultimately be unable to support the .gov and cause both to collapse. (Well, that and the timeline. Which, I believe will be in Owe-bomb-uh's term.)

Link Posted: 2/20/2013 9:31:32 PM EST
[#14]

Quoted:






Does this show US just how Relevant OUR Dollar still is?





I still contend, after realizing QE has had Zero effect on OUR Real Economy, OUR Free-Markets will demand a Strong Dollar & then what will OUR Faux 'Saviors' do?
Stocks Drop Most In 2013 As Gold Is Crucified On The Death Cross
Biggest jump in VIX in 2013; biggest plunge in Homebuilders in 8 months (as TOL misses and Starts were ugly); biggest dump in stocks in 2013; Gold plunges to $1565 and suffers Death Cross; USD soars and crosses above its 200DMA; and oil has frantic flash crash early on.






Market Reaction To FOMC Minutes
USD Up (inverted), Gold Down, Treasury yields Up, Oil Up, Stocks Flat...
















Really nothing changed today.  Gold and the metals had already broken into a bear trend.   The dollars value is so aberrated by distortions I expect that to be a whipsaw bronco ride, every other currency in the world that matters are doing the exact same thing, "currency debasement".  The game there is limbo, "how low can you go".  There may be NO currency wars declared, but there are "police actions".  LOL   As to the stock market, the correction today didn't change the uptrend.  Stocks still should go higher, although a consolidation period could, and probably should  occur here, stocks are still in an uptrend.  As to oil, I'm floored it is as high as it is.  We've had additional supply come on-line, albeit small, and demand for oil is around the year 2000 levels, despite 30 million MORE people...and oil is higher?!  What the fuck?
















Today was not out of the range of expectation.  The metals and commodities will correct and consolidate until the catch the real inflation wave higher. But the speculators have to be flushed out first.  Technical analysis does not account for duration, but I will stick with my original best guess, I say 2014 we hit new highs in the metals, and commodities as the inflation waves becomes obvious to everyone.  In the mean time enjoy equities.  Its going to be a fun and exciting ride, but they will hit new highs (despite today's action).  Today did nothing to change my intermediate outlook for equities.  
















Hang ten and surf the wave.    






 



 
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 9:41:10 PM EST
[#15]
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 10:41:56 PM EST
[#16]



Quoted:





Quoted:

Does this show US just how Relevant OUR Dollar still is?

I still contend, after realizing QE has had Zero effect on OUR Real Economy, OUR Free-Markets will demand a Strong Dollar & then what will OUR Faux 'Saviors' do?





Stocks Drop Most In 2013 As Gold Is Crucified On The Death Cross




Biggest jump in VIX in 2013; biggest plunge in Homebuilders in 8 months (as TOL misses and Starts were ugly); biggest dump in stocks in 2013; Gold plunges to $1565 and suffers Death Cross; USD soars and crosses above its 200DMA; and oil has frantic flash crash early on.


Market Reaction To FOMC Minutes




USD Up (inverted), Gold Down, Treasury yields Up, Oil Up, Stocks Flat...




Really nothing changed today.  Gold and the metals had already broken into a bear trend.   The dollars value is so aberrated by distortions I expect that to be a whipsaw bronco ride, every other currency in the world that matters are doing the exact same thing, "currency debasement".  The game there is limbo, "how low can you go".  There may be NO currency wars declared, but there are "police actions".  LOL   As to the stock market, the correction today didn't change the uptrend.  Stocks still should go higher, although a consolidation period could, and probably should  occur here, stocks are still in an uptrend.  As to oil, I'm floored it is as high as it is.  We've had additional supply come on-line, albeit small, and demand for oil is around the year 2000 levels, despite 30 million MORE people...and oil is higher?!  What the fuck?




Today was not our of the range of expectoration   The metals and commodities will correct and consolidate until the catch the real inflation wave higher.  Technical analysis does not account for duration, but I will stick with my original best guess, I say 2014 we hit new highs in the metals, and commodities as the inflation waves becomes obvious to everyone.  In the mean time enjoy equities.  Its going to be a fun and exciting ride, but they will hit new highs (despite today's action).  Today did nothing to change my intermediate outlook for equities.  




Hang five and surf the wave.    



   


I'm not saying today marked a specific event, just that when the Dollar Strengthens, prices pegged to it fall.

The Dollar being devalued exaggerates Oil prices; nothing to do with Supply.

The QE disconnect creating False Hope & 'Wealth'...



 
Link Posted: 2/20/2013 11:02:43 PM EST
[#17]



Quoted:





Quoted:




Quoted:

Does this show US just how Relevant OUR Dollar still is?

I still contend, after realizing QE has had Zero effect on OUR Real Economy, OUR Free-Markets will demand a Strong Dollar & then what will OUR Faux 'Saviors' do?





Stocks Drop Most In 2013 As Gold Is Crucified On The Death Cross




Biggest jump in VIX in 2013; biggest plunge in Homebuilders in 8 months (as TOL misses and Starts were ugly); biggest dump in stocks in 2013; Gold plunges to $1565 and suffers Death Cross; USD soars and crosses above its 200DMA; and oil has frantic flash crash early on.


Market Reaction To FOMC Minutes




USD Up (inverted), Gold Down, Treasury yields Up, Oil Up, Stocks Flat...




Really nothing changed today.  Gold and the metals had already broken into a bear trend.   The dollars value is so aberrated by distortions I expect that to be a whipsaw bronco ride, every other currency in the world that matters are doing the exact same thing, "currency debasement".  The game there is limbo, "how low can you go".  There may be NO currency wars declared, but there are "police actions".  LOL   As to the stock market, the correction today didn't change the uptrend.  Stocks still should go higher, although a consolidation period could, and probably should  occur here, stocks are still in an uptrend.  As to oil, I'm floored it is as high as it is.  We've had additional supply come on-line, albeit small, and demand for oil is around the year 2000 levels, despite 30 million MORE people...and oil is higher?!  What the fuck?




Today was not our of the range of expectoration   The metals and commodities will correct and consolidate until the catch the real inflation wave higher.  Technical analysis does not account for duration, but I will stick with my original best guess, I say 2014 we hit new highs in the metals, and commodities as the inflation waves becomes obvious to everyone.  In the mean time enjoy equities.  Its going to be a fun and exciting ride, but they will hit new highs (despite today's action).  Today did nothing to change my intermediate outlook for equities.  




Hang five and surf the wave.    



   


I'm not saying today marked a specific event, just that when the Dollar Strengthens, prices pegged to it fall.

The Dollar being devalued exaggerates Oil prices; nothing to do with Supply.

The QE disconnect creating False Hope & 'Wealth'...

 


I know.  I wasn't really "correcting" your statement.  Just running off my personal observations for today's actions.  Forgive my ramblings, I probably should not have quoted YOUR post.  It's just yours got me thinking about today.



The metal correction, and commodity correction where expected, but the equity retreat was not.  I use a number of different methodologies, and equities moves are of some concern.  We are well above the uptrend line here.  We could "correct" quite a lot and still remain in the overall uptrend.  I pretty much ignore the DOW and focus on the S&P500.  Even with today's retrancement nothing has changed.  But the move, while not outside the realm of possibility, was unexpected.  I am still collating as to what that means.




Again, sorry for the ramblings.  GOOD POST!








     
Link Posted: 2/21/2013 6:32:56 PM EST
[#18]
So for all you chart quoters out there, do you really think there's science to the predictions - or just that everyone with a bloomberg terminal (and their own custom algorithms) are all trying to play the same "fundamentals?"   Did these fundamentals predict the Hunt Brothers' silver market manipulations, or the now-daily HFT puking of various big-money stocks?   Seems like it would be tough to follow "fundamentals" in a market that's heavily manipulated by fundamentally unsound principles?      Don't get me wrong:  I'm impressed if you can make money on the market these days...  but it seems like you are pretty much stuck following the FED and trying to time the bubble(s).



Anyway...  

Link Posted: 2/22/2013 11:06:38 AM EST
[#19]
I really, really want to believe they are 'Leading' US to a Solution, and then I'm reminded, I woke up...
Bernanke downplays new bubble worries...




eta this 'Gem'



They Bailed On Their Homes - Now They Want Back In






These so-called, "strategic defaulters,"  some of them investors and
some owner-occupants, are coming back to the market, despite damaged
credit, and apparently the market is welcoming them back.





 
Link Posted: 2/23/2013 1:49:58 PM EST
[#20]







Quoted:




I really, really want to believe they are 'Leading' US to a Solution, and then I'm reminded, I woke up...
Bernanke downplays new bubble worries...
They Bailed On Their Homes - Now They Want Back In
<snip>



 




There are so many signs that something is wrong.   For example when the notes from the Fed meeting where read this week the market sold off, because SOME Fed members expressed concerns about the size of the monthly bond purchases.   If you listened to the financial news you heard a lot of worry about the "sequestration" and also fears about the QE being cut in the future.









The markets act like a heroine addict, who is worried they might not get enough junk.   The economy has been maintained by stimulus and it's addicted.   This is not a healthy recovery.  The federal government is running $1 trillion deficits, the Federal Reserve is printing over $1 trillion of new money so, who in their right mind could call this recovery anything but total and complete bullshit.  










With that said, stocks I believe are tradable, but one must be very careful as not to get sucked up in the illusion of it all.  The metals and commodities will correct, which is tradable as well, and bond prices would be in free-fall, and interest rates rising if QE ended.










This all will change somewhere down the road.  Equities will tank, and commodity prices will rise to new highs.  Looking at gold, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw $3,000 an ounce before the 2016 election.  But it will go lower before it goes higher.  I don't expect the S&P to do the same and go to 3000.    










This is a very interesting time.  


 
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 2:59:40 AM EST
[#21]
The deficit is closer to 1.6 trillion per year. It s hard to pin down since there is no budget.

The deficit and the creation of the money to pay for it since the fed is "buying" more than 100% of the newly issued debt, makes up 10% of the GDP and yet even after they falsely calculate inflation and then adjust the raw GDP numbers for that understated Inflation, the GDP still DECLINED last quarter. New trickery is needed to keep up the illusion. The old tricks can no longer produce false increases in the GDP numbers anymore, meaning the economy continues to free fall faster than they can prop up the GDP numbers.

So to recap:

They falsely raise GDP numbers by adjusting for very understated inflation
         Real inflation is close to 17%. Official inflation is listed as 2%. GDP is overstated by about 15% due to the false inflation numbers.

They create 10% of the GDP by deficit spending and the fed producing the funds to do it. Without the current deficit spending, GDP would be 10% less.


Add these 2 influences together and the result is if we stop deficit spending and use the real inflation numbers to calculate GDP the current GDP would be 25% less than the current stated GDP. That unadulterated GDP is on average about a 5% decline in GDP per year  over the last 5 years.

Those are depression error type changes. Make no mistake about this, we are in an equivalent financial state compared to the Great Depression. They have just been hiding the numbers and creating the funds to fill the hole.

And there is no end in sight. As I have said before, we de-industrialized our economy by shipping out the industrial jobs and industrys. The industrial revolution was the reason for the wealth of the US and the reason for our GDP growth since the late 1800s. Our economy is de-industrializing and going back to a non-industrial economy. The trade deficit is the root of the problem exporting our wealth while not creating any new wealth, and not only is there no fix for the root of this problem, nobody is even talking about the root of the problem. They just talk about the symptoms, because this is the end game and they know it.

Link Posted: 2/24/2013 4:11:09 AM EST
[#22]
There is a fix for the root of the problem. That fix is to make it attractive for businesses to do their manufacturing in this country at decent wages. Or at least make it less attractive to go to other countries by lifting a lot of the restrictions and regulations that make manufacturing in this country cost prohibitive.

A wise person told me many years ago that no economy has survived long term without a strong manufacturing base.

I believe it is bill clinton who should take a good portion of the blame for giving china 'most favored nation' trading status.
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 5:26:22 AM EST
[#23]
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 6:18:42 AM EST
[#24]
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.


Too bad we can't just let the free market take care of it.
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 6:49:03 AM EST
[#25]
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen voluntarily.


FIFY.
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 6:52:37 AM EST
[#26]
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.


You're leaving out the shipping costs which are rising, Chinese labor rates are rising too and it wouldn't take as much as you think. In fact, if you dropped corporate tax rates to near zero or zero, manufacturing would flock here. Even at union labor rates. Fix the over regulation problem and the economy  would fly.

Only problem with that is you might kill the economies of the people we sell too. Of course then they may be forced to follow suit.
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 10:15:27 AM EST
[#27]
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 12:03:55 PM EST
[#28]
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.




Oh, something like ^^^^ is going to happen allright.

Once we're under totalitarian rule.

Why can't folks project the outcomes from the symptoms they are [finally] beginning to figger out???





Link Posted: 2/24/2013 12:05:21 PM EST
[#29]
Quoted:
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.


Too bad we can't just let the free market take care of it.



I guess you haven't noticed, THERE IS NO 'free market' [in a traditional sense], anymore.




Link Posted: 2/24/2013 3:39:49 PM EST
[#30]







Quoted:
Quoted:






Quoted:



While that is true, nobody is even considering that.
EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.
Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.
Not going to happen.




Too bad we can't just let the free market take care of it.







I guess you haven't noticed, THERE IS NO 'free market' [in a traditional sense], anymore.









 


That's what's so frustrating.  Every time we have a crisis "We the people" are convinced its a problem with freedom.   The politicians quickly spring into action creating more government to prevent past problems.  People are sold MORE GOVERNMENT by people who benefit from MORE GOVERNMENT.  It's in their best interest to SELL government, and they use fear, and the false hope that government can make reality safe. When the truth is that past problems have been exasperated by central planning and government action and regulation.  The financial crisis of 2008 was not caused by the free market.  It was caused by regulations and government's central economic planning.  










We've abandoned the only thing that works, the only thing that has EVER worked.  We've abandoned freedom.  The ONLY good thing government can do is protect individual freedom.  That's it.  


 
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 5:51:55 PM EST
[#31]



Quoted:





Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:

While that is true, nobody is even considering that.



EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.



Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.



Not going to happen.


Too bad we can't just let the free market take care of it.



I guess you haven't noticed, THERE IS NO 'free market' [in a traditional sense], anymore.



 
That's what's so frustrating.  Every time we have a crisis "We the people" are convinced its a problem with freedom.   The politicians quickly spring into action creating more government to prevent past problems.  People are sold MORE GOVERNMENT by people who benefit from MORE GOVERNMENT.  It's in their best interest to SELL government, and they use fear, and the false hope that government can make reality safe. When the truth is that past problems have been exasperated by central planning and government action and regulation.  The financial crisis of 2008 was not caused by the free market.  It was caused by regulations and government's central economic planning.  




We've abandoned the only thing that works, the only thing that has EVER worked.  We've abandoned freedom.  The ONLY good thing government can do is protect individual freedom.  That's it.  
 


I made this for another thread, but it fits here just as well:







 
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 5:53:39 PM EST
[#32]

Quoted:


Trade local, accountable government for far away, centralized
government with unlimited resources, a printing press and redundant
enforcement agencies.





Add a massive credit bubble and a population getting lazy, content, and entitled to an unsustainable lifestyle.





Mix credit bubble profits with government officials and minimal public oversight.





Bake at multiple trillion degrees for well over a decade.





Sprinkle narcissistic puppet boogie men over the boondoggle upon
which to focus hate and insults, leaving the public feeling smug in
their hatred yet unwilling to take action and disrupt their comforts.





Let debts simmer and lifestyles become dependent upon illogical, unfunded, and impossible to deliver promises.





Threaten those undeliverable promises and lifestyle if debt or puppets come under any real pressure.





Serve when government meddling in the private sector is so invasive
that any reduction in debt, spending, or services directly threatens
GDP.





Watch everyone shit themselves.





Link Posted: 2/24/2013 6:15:14 PM EST
[#33]
Quoted:
Quoted:
There is a fix for the root of the problem. That fix is to make it attractive for businesses to do their manufacturing in this country at decent wages. Or at least make it less attractive to go to other countries by lifting a lot of the restrictions and regulations that make manufacturing in this country cost prohibitive.

A wise person told me many years ago that no economy has survived long term without a strong manufacturing base.

I believe it is bill clinton who should take a good portion of the blame for giving china 'most favored nation' trading status.


Once the patriarch of that big box store chain in Arkansas passed away, the heirs gave ol' Slick a jingle ...


Bent crank Bill was on the take...

Link Posted: 2/24/2013 6:16:29 PM EST
[#34]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.


Too bad we can't just let the free market take care of it.



I guess you haven't noticed, THERE IS NO 'free market' [in a traditional sense], anymore.






I've noticed that's why I put the

Link Posted: 2/24/2013 6:43:53 PM EST
[#35]
Quoted:
Quoted:
While that is true, nobody is even considering that.

EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.

Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.

Not going to happen.




Oh, something like ^^^^ is going to happen allright.

Once we're under totalitarian rule.

Why can't folks project the outcomes from the symptoms they are [finally] beginning to figger out???







I will be dead before that happens.
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 8:53:11 PM EST
[#36]







Quoted:
Quoted:






Quoted:






Quoted:



While that is true, nobody is even considering that.
EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.
Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.
Not going to happen.




Too bad we can't just let the free market take care of it.







I guess you haven't noticed, THERE IS NO 'free market' [in a traditional sense], anymore.







 


That's what's so frustrating.  Every time we have a crisis "We the people" are convinced its a problem with freedom.   The politicians quickly spring into action creating more government to prevent past problems.  People are sold MORE GOVERNMENT by people who benefit from MORE GOVERNMENT.  It's in their best interest to SELL government, and they use fear, and the false hope that government can make reality safe. When the truth is that past problems have been exasperated by central planning and government action and regulation.  The financial crisis of 2008 was not caused by the free market.  It was caused by regulations and government's central economic planning.  










We've abandoned the only thing that works, the only thing that has EVER worked.  We've abandoned freedom.  The ONLY good thing government can do is protect individual freedom.  That's it.  
 




I think you just made the Statement of the Century.
Bravo...you just defined the platform for an 'Opposition' Party to run on.
Such a basic job for them to do, and all the Traitors seem to pass are schemes to Steal OUR Liberties!!!

 

 
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 9:08:08 PM EST
[#37]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:




While that is true, nobody is even considering that.
EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.
Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.
Not going to happen.

Oh, something like ^^^^ is going to happen allright.
Once we're under totalitarian rule.
Why can't folks project the outcomes from the symptoms they are [finally] beginning to figger out???


I will be dead before that happens.



< post deleted>






Sorry for wasting the space.  Please disregard this post.  






















 

 
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 9:10:39 PM EST
[#38]
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 9:23:55 PM EST
[#39]
Deleted as requested

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 9:27:19 PM EST
[#40]
So,
How close to the end are we now?
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 9:30:02 PM EST
[#41]
Heres to Qweevox.




Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 9:50:56 PM EST
[#42]





Quoted:
Quoted:




Quoted:




Quoted:


While that is true, nobody is even considering that.





EPA, OASHA, FDA, and other rules and regulations would have to be scaled back along with labor laws including union rules.





Then wages would need to compete with child labor rates in china.





Not going to happen.

Oh, something like ^^^^ is going to happen allright.





Once we're under totalitarian rule.





Why can't folks project the outcomes from the symptoms they are [finally] beginning to figger out???












I will be dead before that happens.
removed quote...





 
Waiting for a sober Q, to list the things to a better tomorrow
 
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 10:10:29 PM EST
[#43]
Link Posted: 2/24/2013 10:17:47 PM EST
[#44]


State Farm has always been awesome to me. Glad to see they'll get to keep more of their money.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 2/25/2013 12:16:11 AM EST
[#45]
Quoted:
So,
How close to the end are we now?



Like Qwee says, not too close ----but time flys. Like most things in life, it will be here before we know it.

So ---closer than most think.

The Left has a lot more chess pieces to get lined up preparing the social, economic, and military battlefields in this country. Yet they've made outstanding progress and I'd guess are 85% to 90% toward their goal.

They have worked tirelessly for 60+ years to achieve this, while we sat addicted to our TEEVEES, their biggest tool that's been used to control and conquer us. The greatest propaganda instrument in the history of the world. They control it fully.

They aren't likely to act too hastily, and make a strategic mistake.

They herd us back and forth politically and socially, like a flock of sheep in a lightning storm, to our total distraction and amusement.

While they enjoy having just ONE overarching goal, our complete domination. No compromise at all.

As anyone who pays attention can see, they have huge enertia, control the National majority vote, and the deck is fully stacked in their favor. Their plan now is to disassemble by every means possible, all political, military, and social structures --standing in their way to taking over.

A few are standing by with fingers up their butts watching, powerless to do much of anything to alter their steamroll.

There are plenty of historical comparisons to make, just update them for current technology and our overall failed society.

There's time for each of us to make 'plans' to increase chances of 'survival', but once the commies roll, as they did in the country of 2 of my employees in the 80's, who had their entire professional parented families killed and they escaped by the skin of their teeth walking for a long time thru the jungles, there's no telling what will happen.

As far as what to do, I'd like to hear Qwee's thoughts on this once he takes care of biz this week.


Link Posted: 2/25/2013 12:43:39 AM EST
[#46]
One of the devices the left is using to take control of us is the economy. They have literally destroyed it systematically [along with the our once sensible social culture -that stood in their way].

Some folks think that the .gov will fold when the economy 'collapses', and we will have some sort of "ROMANTIC RESET". That the FSM will have their EBT cards cut off.



That is unlikely to ever happen, until the Left is in full control.

Then when we no longer go to the ballot box, who needs a Free Shit Majority?  

And why waste $$$ on EBT cards. The FSM is in for the same surprise we are. Probably much worse.

Just a few years later.



There are BRILLIANT and evil folks calculating this whole gameplan, and it's likely completely written out, needing minor adjustments now and again.  Everything we are seeing re gun control is likely long ago baked in the cake with the details worked out as things go along.

All you have to do is look at a cross-section of the 'creame de la crop' mentalities and personalities we see around us and you can see why Qweevox says we're screwed.



[Expy's survival TIP of the day -Keep your dental work up to date and don't get gold fillings]

Link Posted: 2/25/2013 12:47:46 AM EST
[#47]



Quoted:


So for all you chart quoters out there, do you really think there's science to the predictions - or just that everyone with a bloomberg terminal (and their own custom algorithms) are all trying to play the same "fundamentals?"   Did these fundamentals predict the Hunt Brothers' silver market manipulations, or the now-daily HFT puking of various big-money stocks?   Seems like it would be tough to follow "fundamentals" in a market that's heavily manipulated by fundamentally unsound principles?      Don't get me wrong:  I'm impressed if you can make money on the market these days...  but it seems like you are pretty much stuck following the FED and trying to time the bubble(s).



http://blog.cooltools.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Silver-Chart-Edited.jpg



Anyway...  




in currency I am only able to really do well using strictly technical analysis in short term time frames (minutes to hours)  and in LONG term trades (months)    Anything from days to weeks is too unpredictable.





 
Link Posted: 2/25/2013 3:32:44 AM EST
[#48]
Edited per request...VA-gunnut
Link Posted: 2/25/2013 3:43:16 AM EST
[#49]
Quoted:
One of the devices the left is using to take control of us is the economy. They have literally destroyed it systematically [along with the our once sensible social culture -that stood in their way].

Some folks think that the .gov will fold when the economy 'collapses', and we will have some sort of "ROMANTIC RESET". That the FSM will have their EBT cards cut off.



That is unlikely to ever happen, until the Left is in full control.

Then when we no longer go to the ballot box, who needs a Free Shit Majority?  

And why waste $$$ on EBT cards. The FSM is in for the same surprise we are. Probably much worse.

Just a few years later.



There are BRILLIANT and evil folks calculating this whole gameplan, and it's likely completely written out, needing minor adjustments now and again.  Everything we are seeing re gun control is likely long ago baked in the cake with the details worked out as things go along.

All you have to do is look at a cross-section of the 'creame de la crop' mentalities and personalities we see around us and you can see why Qweevox says we're screwed.



[Expy's survival TIP of the day -Keep your dental work up to date and don't get gold fillings]



Are you discounting an armed uprising to restore freedom? Or do you think such a thing will have no positive effect or even be used to advance their agenda.

I am curious to know who or what can have a coordinated plan in action for the time frame you are talking about. I am skeptical that this is planned and not just a deterioration of conditions because of a misplaced ideology.

Please expound.    How would a counter revolution, theoretically, affect the events taking place.
Link Posted: 2/25/2013 3:59:49 AM EST
[#50]

Edited per request...VA-gunnut
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