They were saying this when we were at State, I don't know if you remember. They were a lot of MSS guys around, and like two FBI guys.

The title is "bigger" than the story.

The story is about how China is dominating the PIF.

Here's the most important quote of the story, and it's the end of the story as well:
Some of you may remember earlier in the year when Carmel posted a Congressional hearing with the State Dept, DOD rep and somebody else ineffectual?
The State Dept declared that they "have a plan" to counter all of this. Part of this plan is to "listen." Part of this plan is to "be present."

I remember the FBI guys

A lot of the Pacific islands nations reps were repeating this line at the recent Pan Pacific meeting
I always look for patterns

Africa gets some ships lol

Okay.......
Score Card!!! with Flight Tracker!!!
We already covered the numbers, but here it is for posterity's sake:
China sends 19 military aircraft and 9 ships around Taiwan

Attached File

They posted a picture of the PLAAF J-10:
Attached File

It looks a lot like that little Israeli number...Lav-something-or-other. It's a small World afterall.

Got it!!!! and Right On!!!!!

We don't have a "thumbs up" emoji!! This will be the place holder until this injustice is rectified:

The Nuclear Submarine Building Capacity of China’s Bohai Shipyard

The Bohai Shipyard, located in Huludao in Liaoning province, China, is the country’s only shipyard engaged in the construction of nuclear submarines. The yard has expanded since its inception and is poised to grow further in the coming years. With some of the new facilities having already been commissioned, there has been a considerable increase in the throughput of the yard. This report examines the augmentation of facilities at the Bohai shipyard and makes an assessment on the new build rate of nuclear submarines. It finds that China appears to have completed the iterative process of spiral development and has now moved to the phase of rapid serial construction.

https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-nuclear-submarine-building-capacity-of-china-s-bohai-shipyard

For those who want to know more about Chinas nuclear submarine shipyard.

Israel transferred a lot of tech over the years, even against US pleas


Took them getting rocked by North Korean weapons & tunnels in Lebanon and China’s fuck off over Gaza to wake up and smell the coffee

Prior to this expansion they could build SSNs or SSBNs, not both.  They need both.   Although they appear to have a bastion strategy in the yellow sea for their SSBNs.  Basically they sail them to a protected area where our subs can't get them and pop off SLBMs from there.  Russia has a similar idea in the white sea behind the Kola.  They trapped one of thier own subs in the bastion defense last year, details are sparse but it sounded like they killed most of the crew in the yellow sea.

I think SSBNs are a lower priority for them.   They don't yet have an effective triad but they've invested heavily in land based silos in the last couple years.

Their actual submarine quieting and sensors are behind the curve the last time I saw them discussed but having yard capacity goes a long way toward iterating faster.

Have they though?  I guess we'll find out.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-jails-taiwanese-person-on-separatism-charge-for-first-time

Attached File

Harbor Freight F-16

That was a well researched article. It comes with a downloadable PDF link for those of you that have digital reference libraries. I scanned it, no bug-a-boos. The satellite photos are from google earth. Admiral Monty did a very good job I would. How accurate is the assessment is always the question, but it's a manufacturing facility and secondary ops always cost money even if it's in the name of National Security, so we can expect very little subterfuge in the facility lay out.

It's worth the read!!  It gets two thumbs up from me!!! Again, this injustice must be rectified.

Score Card!!!
China dispatches 9 military aircraft and 8 ships around Taiwan
Attached File

Well played, Sir! Well played!

Now back to my Vince Edward movie where he fights wearing short sleeve shirts and a tie...like a real American!!!!!!!!

https://news.usni.org/2024/09/06/chinese-russian-ships-sail-near-japan-tokyo-protests-chinese-incursion-into-territorial-waters

He would have appreciated that. If you remember that Ford Thunderbird I was driving in the 1990s, he gave it to me after he married my Mom

The "ammo carrier" FTW!!!!!

Here's some bookmarked stories I have waiting for further context, but it ain't happening! yet!!! One never knows about these things.

You may remember we covered the increase in time draftees would be spending in their training period. Previously, it was 4 months. Now, it's one year:
Army provides more equipment to conscripts amid shortage complaints



They will be spending more time on marksmenship which is always a good thing. It's a perishable skill after all, and it's real easy to return to bad habits if you're not thinking and practicing good habits.


Another increase in Training hours story:
Taiwan Navy sends 22 officers overseas for light frigate training


This story does have a context now that GoldenMead posted another one of those wonderful charts, up above, that show Frigate sized ships are sort of becoming the "go to" for Surface Warfare. I'm guess that's due to cost, and then there are the side benefits of less crew loss at a time (that's not really a benefit; it's a rationalization), and it's easier to "hide" (not really a good choice for smaller emissions and wake) out in the Ocean.

I started with the training stories first because training is to important to neglect, and no matter what the cost of doing it is, it's way cheaper to pay that then the imaginary "imaginary" savings of not training.

Let me give you a radical example: North Korea's invasion of South Korea in 1950 was actually the third invasion they did since 1946. The Norks were very well practiced by 1950.

The first American draftees who ended up in Korea did their Basic Training on slow ships to the Korean Peninsula. They were nothing more than cannon fodder. To me, this just doesn't border criminalized conduct by Leadership, it is a sincere failing of Leadership especially since after all the happy talk of the 1947 National Security Act.

Here's a less radical example: It's always been my opinion that most discipline problems in any unit are due to lack of training. Training gives an individual a belief in his own abilities to get things done, that his equipment actually works and can be relied on, that he can rely on his peers to act as a team, and that Leadership knows what they're doing in spite of them being a bunch of assholes. Without all of this, you have one individual who is insecure about not just his abilities to carry out his duty, but he's very insecure about his survival. Others begin to realize the same thing and quickly, and then you end of with the Korean Peninsula of 1950.

Taiwan deepens drone trade with Arizona



This is just another story that if Taiwan had to do it all over again, they wouldn't be waiting until the end of 2024 to do this!!!!

Time is never on your side, Gentlemen...unless you're a commie, then you believe it is which is why you always fail.

Now this is a very interesting story, and I wonder how the "people" would feel about it if a similar game was available here:
Taiwanese company develops board game based on Chinese invasion




Like I said, very interesting. I know any version for here, never trust the liberal white woman whichever side she's on!!!

There's also a "rap song" about it:

I like the video. No idea about the words or the pictographs flashing across the screen, but the video of places and peoples do show what's at stake.

The Philippine Navy has logged the biggest-ever presence of Chinese ships and warships in the West Philippine Sea since it began publishing its weekly tallies.

A total of 203 ships of China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese maritime militia (CMM) as well as Chinese warships were recorded.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/09/08/no-2-taiwan-official-visiting-us-for-two-weeks-seeks-better-understanding

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202409/1319440.shtml

https://www.reuters.com/world/german-warships-pass-through-taiwan-strait-this-month-spiegel-says-2024-09-07/

The Chinese Coast Guard has around 500 ships and boats that previous posts have enumerated.

The Chinese Maritime Militia has around 300 craft that previous posts have enumerated, and typically it's a few PLAN Frigates that are in the area managing long range RADAR scans radio Command and Control.

Anyway you slice it, they committed 25% of their force here in the West Philippine Sea.

This action could account for the drop off of PLAAF sorties around Taiwan. The Taiwan News missed another 24-hour report period, so here's the MND statement - SCORE CARD!:
2024/09/08 PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan
The monthly total is now 99 aircraft and 62 Ships.

However, there's also another reason why PLAAF sorties have dropped to the point where the Taiwan News doesn't feel the need to report on it.

It's the TPP corruption matter that engulfed Taiwan Politics. Here are several stories, and we're at the "very close to street protest" stage:
Court continues to hold Taipei ex-deputy mayor and others over corruption allegations despite appeals

TPP supporters organize silent protest for detained party founder Ko Wen-je

Taiwan People's Party protests in solidarity with Ko Wen-je

Remember to take any of these correlations with a "grain of salt", but for the PRC, street protests about politics is way better than flying around in circles to accomplish its goals of destabilization of Taiwanese society.

And as for the big maritime "hoedown" to the West of the Philippines, this entire thread has hosted two distinct propositions since it started:

Taiwan or the 9-Dash Line: which will the PRC go for?

For the PRC, this probably isn't their question. Their question is when and how do we take what we want? The meaning here is that to go for Taiwan is to defend the 9-Dash Line, and to go for the 9-Dash Line is to end up controlling Taiwan. In true arfcom fashion: get both.

This is the second time the Germans have advertised this!! It may happen????
German Navy ships to sail through Taiwan Strait

I think it’s their way of saying “China please don’t upset the status quo”

Germany also has a new deal with TSMC

LOL, I'm torn, Brother!! It's obvious bullshit, but they blame a female staffer who argues with them!!! Whom to believe????? LOL

Sorry!! I should check before posting!!!

In time I imagine wearing a sweatshirt with a Taiwan flag ala Top Gun Tom Cruise or being seen in a photograph with any Taiwanese China doesn’t like will constitute “encouraging separatism and independence”

All of those, plus showing youtube videos of Taiwanese street food vendors (I wonder when google will ban those?), and other innocuous activities, because as we all know, the only way to protect the Revolution is to kill off the Counter-revoluntionaries. There is no other way.

Amazing how confident leftists are, from Berkeley to Beijing free speech is the enemy of the state yet supposedly Marxism is supposed to have such wide appeal to the masses

Since i don’t know how to embed tweets I’ll just copy and paste. This is from R.O.C Ministry of National defense official X account.

Overall 18 #PLA aircraft in various types (including J-16, KJ-500, etc.) were detected from 0820hr today. Out of which, 15 crossed the median line of the #Taiwan Strait and entered the northern, central and southwestern ADIZ in conducting air-sea joint training along with other PLAN vessels. #ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and responded accordingly.


They usually don’t post midday numbers unless it’s unusual activity.

Deleted

To embed a "tweet", click on the bird icon on the "what you see is what you get" tool bar.

A "pop up" window will present itself. Copy/Paste the url in the only available input box.

Here's the important part, replace the "twitter" with an 'x' at the .com.

It's always nice to see the flight trackers. I suspect this one will be very similar to the last two that have been published.

My understanding is hoping for a meeting not a meeting set in stone


https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-commanders-discuss-conflict-prevention-in-next-few-weeks-2024-09-05/

Yes, Sir. This is the same stance since 2022 after Pelosi went to Taiwan. Boy, those were the good ole days!! Wild what it's like to be led down a path!!

Your post just made me think of this movie:
Pork Chop Hill

Damn good movie!!

Coming up on 75 years https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240906007151315

https://nypost.com/2024/09/08/us-news/chinese-communist-party-tried-to-steal-ny-assembly-seat-queens-pol-ron-kim-claims-just-days-after-ex-hochul-aides-arrest-as-foreign-agent/

I figured it out woohoo!

In August, Chinese PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone (ADIZ) reached new highs — eclipsing the year-end totals from 2022 & 2023.

The record-breaking surge (running +73% yoy) started after the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president in May. A simple visualization: pic.twitter.com/F52TMiZqDl

Ian Ellis  (@ianellisjones) September 9, 2024

Attached File

Attached File

It's 12:3something PM as I type, so here's the total count for the last 0600 to 0600"
2024/09/09 PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

This gives us a grand total, so far, of 120 aircraft and 70 ships.
And Thanks to GoldenMead, we know that the vast majority of the PLAAF flights happened earlier in the 24-hour period.

Let's make some more assumptions of what we can. The number of ships involved is a related to where the aircraft are flying their patterns, and that the ships are responsible for recording Taiwanese EMR emissions and for the rescue/recovery of aircraft incase of a in-flight failure. They don't use their Coast Guard for that because their Coast Guard doesn't rescue anybody!!! I'm assuming that the ships have a secondary purpose of acting as an alternative "ground" control agency for the PLAAF in case Taiwan is successful at jamming typical PLAAF Ground Control Agency frequencies.

Nice!!!!!!

We're putting a gold star by your name!!  GoldenMead Attached File

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3277816/chinese-russian-navy-air-forces-hold-joint-drills-again-sea-japan

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-ties-with-philippines-crossroads-over-south-china-sea-2024-09-09/

2 gator carriers isn't going to be enough.  Though I'm not sure that even the 6 CV/CVNs for Desert Storm would be.  Awful lot of ocean for under a half-dozen SSNs, too.  Hopefully the little crappy ships put up a meaningful percentage of a Burke's capabilities.