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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:11:33 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: the government cant effectively fight inflation because it cant afford to pay higher interest on the national debt. So it will never really be able to get inflation under control It easily could, but it won't. Eliminate ALL mandatory spending. Use the surplus to pay down the debt. The US would be debt free in less than 20 years. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:12:41 AM EDT
[#2]
Fake.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:13:09 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Everyone who wants a job has a job What in the holy fuck are you talking about??? I have been looking for a job since August. I know of thousands of others in my same boat. Skilled professionals with work histories filled with successes and glowing recommendations. You can go on LinkedIn and read their posts detailing their struggles to find employment. You can talk to any recruiter in the country and they are seeing the same thing. I have about a dozen different recruiting companies trying to help me, and my story is the norm. The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. I think there's three main groups right now. One group has been raking in cash for a couple years now, builders fall into this group, work has been insane since 2021, lots of business owners in all industries are in the same group. The second group is doing okay, but isn't afraid of their credit card even a little bit. They want to take a vacation and put 8 grand on the credit card....no problem, it's gonna be fine. The third group is really hurting, they may have been on the way to middle class a few years ago, but prices shot way up and wages didn't, or their company downsized a bit. It's a big group, but still is overshadowed by the other two. We are doing okay, but aren't running up credit, we are doing the opposite, and I've been stacking business assets like a mad man for two years. We have friends that can't make much more than we do (and likely don't) that just seem to have money to burn, trips, going out to eat, car payments, camper payments, it's insanity. One admitted to me at a party a few years ago that between the CC bill and his payments on stuff it's almost $9k/month. That's a hard way to live, maybe not recently because work is steady, but he's only been on his own for 5 years or so, he's never seen a big slow down. It's gonna hurt a lot of people when it happens. My goals has to been to get as many money making assets as possible and get them paid off as fast as possible. I want to be using shit I own to make money while other builders are getting their equipment repo'd. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:13:40 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's just transitory. The question is where are we transitioning to? |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:13:54 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Millions of new adults in the country adding to demand makes prices continue to go up? Who could have guessed that would happen? The millions of new job seekers push salaries down. Double whammy. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:16:02 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's not correct. The inflation rate has softened, but inflation continues to go higher and higher. For inflation to soften, the CPI needs to go negative for a long time. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Monthly reminder that just because prices aren't lower doesn't mean that inflation hasn't softened. That's not correct. The inflation rate has softened, but inflation continues to go higher and higher. For inflation to soften, the CPI needs to go negative for a long time.  Attached File |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:18:51 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Everyone who wants a job has a job What in the holy fuck are you talking about??? I have been looking for a job since August. I know of thousands of others in my same boat. Skilled professionals with work histories filled with successes and glowing recommendations. You can go on LinkedIn and read their posts detailing their struggles to find employment. You can talk to any recruiter in the country and they are seeing the same thing. I have about a dozen different recruiting companies trying to help me, and my story is the norm. The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. I'm going to disagree here. The latest data on jobs has been showing for months now that full-time jobs have been declining precipitously and part-time jobs increasing. So, the .gov is masking employment weakening with "Look how many jerbs were added!" propaganda not "Look how many full-time workers lost their jobs and now have to work part-time!". Work force participation rates are also down over that same period. If the actual inflation that people see with their own eyes continues to increase, the correction that has already started will be too obvious to ignore. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:21:12 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, it doesn't. If the CPI slows down then inflation has softened. It doesn't have to go negative. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That's not correct. The inflation rate has softened, but inflation continues to go higher and higher. For inflation to soften, the CPI needs to go negative for a long time. No, it doesn't. If the CPI slows down then inflation has softened. It doesn't have to go negative. One could argue that unless it goes negative, the inflation that has already occurred will be permanently "baked into the cake". As such, one could say that, over time, inflation doesn't soften until and unless it goes negative to counteract that which has already occurred. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:34:44 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to disagree here. The latest data on jobs has been showing for months now that full-time jobs have been declining precipitously and part-time jobs increasing. So, the .gov is masking employment weakening with "Look how many jerbs were added!" propaganda not "Look how many full-time workers lost their jobs and now have to work part-time!". Work force participation rates are also down over that same period. If the actual inflation that people see with their own eyes continues to increase, the correction that has already started will be too obvious to ignore. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Everyone who wants a job has a job What in the holy fuck are you talking about??? I have been looking for a job since August. I know of thousands of others in my same boat. Skilled professionals with work histories filled with successes and glowing recommendations. You can go on LinkedIn and read their posts detailing their struggles to find employment. You can talk to any recruiter in the country and they are seeing the same thing. I have about a dozen different recruiting companies trying to help me, and my story is the norm. The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. I'm going to disagree here. The latest data on jobs has been showing for months now that full-time jobs have been declining precipitously and part-time jobs increasing. So, the .gov is masking employment weakening with "Look how many jerbs were added!" propaganda not "Look how many full-time workers lost their jobs and now have to work part-time!". Work force participation rates are also down over that same period. If the actual inflation that people see with their own eyes continues to increase, the correction that has already started will be too obvious to ignore. The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:50:55 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Core inflation is up 3.9% year over year. Translation: no interest rate cuts. My brother in law who does commercial real estate in an ultra liberal big city assured me we were going to see cuts begin end of '23, early '24 at the latest.. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:51:36 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What industry? In the trades the job rush is kind of slowing, crews are running smaller and more efficient because bringing in new people proved to be a pain in the ass. I have to find a new guy and get him trained around June/July of this year because one of my guys is done in the fall. I'm dreading it. Corporate overall, though I have an IT background from support through app dev and project and product management. From commercial construction, to global logistics to healthcare. All recruiters I have talked to are seeing a 180 degree shift from the hiring that was occurring 1 to 2 years ago. Job posting everywhere, but little actual hiring. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:52:44 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. You really need to spend some time on Linkedin. It is very bad and it is not a smattering or anecdotal. It is endemic. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 11:53:41 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Monthly reminder that just because prices aren't lower doesn't mean that inflation hasn't softened. Inflation threads are fun. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:00:38 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Take a look at the Russell 2000, it is down over 3%. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Stocks don't like these numbers. Dow is down 1%. Take a look at the Russell 2000, it is down over 3%. I'd considered selling my tech and smallcap funds yesterday to rebalance and didn't. There goes that thought...  |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:01:08 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You really need to spend some time on Linkedin. It is very bad and it is not a smattering or anecdotal. It is endemic. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. You really need to spend some time on Linkedin. It is very bad and it is not a smattering or anecdotal. It is endemic. That's not a good way to get the big picture. I know things are worse than a year ago from an employment perspective but when you zoom out to like 50 years, it's nothing like what we see during actual recessions. You've been here since 2003, I'm sure you remember what 2009 looked like when we were in a deep recession and experiencing actual deflation and very high unemployment. If the employment situation was bad right now we wouldn't be putting in the CPI numbers that we are putting in. Inflation and employment are very much tied at the hip. There's still lots of dollars out there competing for goods and there's not enough billionaires out there to keep propping up prices for houses, food, and cars. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:17:43 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My brother in law who does commercial real estate in an ultra liberal big city assured me we were going to see cuts begin end of '23, early '24 at the latest.. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022  Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama)  Lisa D. Cook - May 2022  Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama)  |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:17:45 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: One could argue that unless it goes negative, the inflation that has already occurred will be permanently "baked into the cake". As such, one could say that, over time, inflation doesn't soften until and unless it goes negative to counteract that which has already occurred. You seem to believe that there is an appropriate price level which must be returned to. That is not the case. If CPI, PCE, whatever you use goes to zero, you will enjoy the benefits of zero inflation going forward. Yes, you have already suffered from high inflation, but that was in the past. For those heavily indebted, swap disadvantages for benefits. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:19:22 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Artificial. Like the economy, the stock market and the Presidency. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:25:42 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your brother-in-law may be right. Seems like Joe appointed most of the Federal Reserve Board members, and they're all Democrats. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/jefferson_phillip_rdax_130x162s.jpg Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Barr_michael_8x10_July_25_22-444_rdax_130x162s.jpg Lisa D. Cook - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Cook_Lisa_8x10_June_29_22-316_pp_rdax_130x162s.jpg Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Kugler_master_no_Flag_4x5-4734_pp_rdax_130x163s.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: My brother in law who does commercial real estate in an ultra liberal big city assured me we were going to see cuts begin end of '23, early '24 at the latest.. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/jefferson_phillip_rdax_130x162s.jpg Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Barr_michael_8x10_July_25_22-444_rdax_130x162s.jpg Lisa D. Cook - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Cook_Lisa_8x10_June_29_22-316_pp_rdax_130x162s.jpg Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Kugler_master_no_Flag_4x5-4734_pp_rdax_130x163s.jpg How it has almost always been. https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=14021 Previous studies look at the political ideologies of the broader economic profession. For instance, Langbert, Quain, and Klein (2016) report that Democrats outnumber Republicans 4.5:1 among economics faculty at 40 leading universities. In addition, Langbert (2020) finds a ratio of 4:1 among members of the American Economic Association (AEA), 4.1:1 among academic AEA members, and 2.5:1 among AEA members working outside academia and government. Earlier, Klein and Stern (2006) estimateds the ratio at 4.1:1 among public sector economists and 1.4:1 among private sector economists. McEachern (2006) shows Democrats outnumber Republicans 5.1:1 among AEA members in terms of political contributions. Likewise, I find that economists at the Fed are more likely to lean left than the broader economics profession. I find that the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among Fed economists is 10.4 to 1. The lack of political diversity is especially pronounced at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (48.5:1). Economists at regional Reserve banks range from 3:1 (Cleveland) to 12:1 (San Francisco). The lack of diversity is also noteworthy in leadership positions (22.25:1). Economists who are 40 years old or younger at the Fed are more likely to lean left (20.33:1), as are female economists (27.5:1). This suggests the Fed is likely to become even less politically diverse in time. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:32:48 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What industry? In the trades the job rush is kind of slowing, crews are running smaller and more efficient because bringing in new people proved to be a pain in the ass. I have to find a new guy and get him trained around June/July of this year because one of my guys is done in the fall. I'm dreading it. Not many people want to work for $40-50k a year without insurance. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:33:23 PM EDT
[#21]
No freaking way energy costs are down.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:33:28 PM EDT
[#22]
But what about the price of bug mash artificial meat substitute hot dogs? Hmm?
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Posted: 2/13/2024 12:35:06 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What is the pay for this job? Not many people want to work for $40-50k a year without insurance. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What industry? In the trades the job rush is kind of slowing, crews are running smaller and more efficient because bringing in new people proved to be a pain in the ass. I have to find a new guy and get him trained around June/July of this year because one of my guys is done in the fall. I'm dreading it. Not many people want to work for $40-50k a year without insurance. $25/hr. Dumb labor, looking for a green 18 year old that can pick things up and put them down. 10% year end bonus and $100/week commuting bonus. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:08:03 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: My brother in law who does commercial real estate in an ultra liberal big city assured me we were going to see cuts begin end of '23, early '24 at the latest.. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/jefferson_phillip_rdax_130x162s.jpg Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Barr_michael_8x10_July_25_22-444_rdax_130x162s.jpg Lisa D. Cook - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Cook_Lisa_8x10_June_29_22-316_pp_rdax_130x162s.jpg Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Kugler_master_no_Flag_4x5-4734_pp_rdax_130x163s.jpg How it has almost always been. https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=14021 Previous studies look at the political ideologies of the broader economic profession. For instance, Langbert, Quain, and Klein (2016) report that Democrats outnumber Republicans 4.5:1 among economics faculty at 40 leading universities. In addition, Langbert (2020) finds a ratio of 4:1 among members of the American Economic Association (AEA), 4.1:1 among academic AEA members, and 2.5:1 among AEA members working outside academia and government. Earlier, Klein and Stern (2006) estimateds the ratio at 4.1:1 among public sector economists and 1.4:1 among private sector economists. McEachern (2006) shows Democrats outnumber Republicans 5.1:1 among AEA members in terms of political contributions. Likewise, I find that economists at the Fed are more likely to lean left than the broader economics profession. I find that the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among Fed economists is 10.4 to 1. The lack of political diversity is especially pronounced at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (48.5:1). Economists at regional Reserve banks range from 3:1 (Cleveland) to 12:1 (San Francisco). The lack of diversity is also noteworthy in leadership positions (22.25:1). Economists who are 40 years old or younger at the Fed are more likely to lean left (20.33:1), as are female economists (27.5:1). This suggests the Fed is likely to become even less politically diverse in time. That article is about economists, not Board members. The Board members will decide interest rate cuts and increases. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:15:04 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That article is about economists, not Board members. The Board members will decide interest rate cuts and increases. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: My brother in law who does commercial real estate in an ultra liberal big city assured me we were going to see cuts begin end of '23, early '24 at the latest.. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/jefferson_phillip_rdax_130x162s.jpg Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Barr_michael_8x10_July_25_22-444_rdax_130x162s.jpg Lisa D. Cook - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Cook_Lisa_8x10_June_29_22-316_pp_rdax_130x162s.jpg Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Kugler_master_no_Flag_4x5-4734_pp_rdax_130x163s.jpg How it has almost always been. https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=14021 Previous studies look at the political ideologies of the broader economic profession. For instance, Langbert, Quain, and Klein (2016) report that Democrats outnumber Republicans 4.5:1 among economics faculty at 40 leading universities. In addition, Langbert (2020) finds a ratio of 4:1 among members of the American Economic Association (AEA), 4.1:1 among academic AEA members, and 2.5:1 among AEA members working outside academia and government. Earlier, Klein and Stern (2006) estimateds the ratio at 4.1:1 among public sector economists and 1.4:1 among private sector economists. McEachern (2006) shows Democrats outnumber Republicans 5.1:1 among AEA members in terms of political contributions. Likewise, I find that economists at the Fed are more likely to lean left than the broader economics profession. I find that the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among Fed economists is 10.4 to 1. The lack of political diversity is especially pronounced at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (48.5:1). Economists at regional Reserve banks range from 3:1 (Cleveland) to 12:1 (San Francisco). The lack of diversity is also noteworthy in leadership positions (22.25:1). Economists who are 40 years old or younger at the Fed are more likely to lean left (20.33:1), as are female economists (27.5:1). This suggests the Fed is likely to become even less politically diverse in time. That article is about economists, not Board members. The Board members will decide interest rate cuts and increases. You missed the point. The entire industry of economists, influencing the Federal Reserve system, INCLUDING the FOMC voting members, has *always* been overwhelmingly Democrat to Republican, or Leftists to Conservatives. They influence at every level. The core of the article is very much about that fact. This isn't something new. The real discussion should be around "why is that?" I'm not arguing nor debating your point. This is contributary data on why the influence exists. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:21:57 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Run bull, run! Stonks on sale boys... come and get 'em.  The Wolf of Wall Street (2013) - Fugazi, Fugazi Scene | Movieclips |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:23:08 PM EDT
[#27]
Still 51% higher then targeted 2% inflation.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:45:32 PM EDT
[#28]
Super core at 4.4%. That's with energy costs unusually tame as of late and health insurance rates "modeled" by government goons to hide their moon shot. That's going to change going forward and agricultural commodities appear to be rising quickly.
Fed is probably going to need to raise rates again by mid year. But they won't, and it will be because of political pressure. At least that's how I see this playing out. The squeeze on the US consumer is going to be brutal leading up to the election. For illegals and Ukraine, Israel, etc not so much. 
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Posted: 2/13/2024 1:58:18 PM EDT
[#29]
Forgot to mention the SPR. If for some reason they need to refill it after draining it for political reasons the last couple years that move is going to bite Biden in the ass. I see odds of that as better than a coin toss.
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Posted: 2/13/2024 2:06:33 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Super core at 4.4%. That's with energy costs unusually tame as of late and health insurance rates "modeled" by government goons to hide their moon shot. That's going to change going forward and agricultural commodities appear to be rising quickly. Fed is probably going to need to raise rates again by mid year. But they won't, and it will be because of political pressure. At least that's how I see this playing out. The squeeze on the US consumer is going to be brutal leading up to the election. For illegals and Ukraine, Israel, etc not so much. Your'e probably not far off.. Personal theory: The folks that make the decisions have decided the current WH resident must go. Current resident will not go quietly. A manufactured concensus must be fed to the plebs that it's time for an alternative. To achieve this, media has been instructed to start the narrative and slowly withdrawn protection. Agency's that prop up the current regime through bullshit ( BLS, etc.) have been instructed to dial back the manipulation. Resulting peek behind the curtain at the real state of play is enough to sour even the uninformed voter/ true believer. Pressure mounts, opinion polls reflect growing dissatisfaction. Hammering the market is well within the range of options given what's at stake. MAYBE enough to get current resident to walk away without the spectacle of a public removal. If not, then the real fun begins... |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 3:43:42 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Everyone who wants a job has a job What in the holy fuck are you talking about??? I have been looking for a job since August. I know of thousands of others in my same boat. Skilled professionals with work histories filled with successes and glowing recommendations. You can go on LinkedIn and read their posts detailing their struggles to find employment. You can talk to any recruiter in the country and they are seeing the same thing. I have about a dozen different recruiting companies trying to help me, and my story is the norm. The big picture, not your particular anecdotal experience. Don't take it personally. There's no data out there that suggests a high level of unemployment right now. Not labor participation, not official unemployment, not the stock market, not the CPI, not the actual prices you can see with your own eyes at the store, no half empty planes flying to Vegas and casinos having to go back to comping rooms and waiving resort fees to get players...nothing. I'm going to disagree here. The latest data on jobs has been showing for months now that full-time jobs have been declining precipitously and part-time jobs increasing. So, the .gov is masking employment weakening with "Look how many jerbs were added!" propaganda not "Look how many full-time workers lost their jobs and now have to work part-time!". Work force participation rates are also down over that same period. If the actual inflation that people see with their own eyes continues to increase, the correction that has already started will be too obvious to ignore. The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? The full-time jobs are declining at a rate that is somewhat high for a "soft landing" recession. It's being masked by folks being forced to find a part-time job in lieu of a full time one. But, at some point, the chickens have to come home to roost so we'll see what that impact is probably in the next quarter or two. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 3:46:41 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You seem to believe that there is an appropriate price level which must be returned to. That is not the case. If CPI, PCE, whatever you use goes to zero, you will enjoy the benefits of zero inflation going forward. Yes, you have already suffered from high inflation, but that was in the past. For those heavily indebted, swap disadvantages for benefits. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: One could argue that unless it goes negative, the inflation that has already occurred will be permanently "baked into the cake". As such, one could say that, over time, inflation doesn't soften until and unless it goes negative to counteract that which has already occurred. You seem to believe that there is an appropriate price level which must be returned to. That is not the case. If CPI, PCE, whatever you use goes to zero, you will enjoy the benefits of zero inflation going forward. Yes, you have already suffered from high inflation, but that was in the past. For those heavily indebted, swap disadvantages for benefits. Yes, there is indeed a price level that is appropriate and must be returned to. It is the nature of cyclical business (and mathematical equilibrium). The problem is we've had a fed that has tried desperately to prevent that correction and it has bitten us in the ass more than once already (and will soon do so again). |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 3:47:27 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? It's exactly like what we normally see during recessions going back to 1969
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:27:09 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your brother-in-law may be right. Seems like Joe appointed most of the Federal Reserve Board members, and they're all Democrats. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/jefferson_phillip_rdax_130x162s.jpg Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Barr_michael_8x10_July_25_22-444_rdax_130x162s.jpg Lisa D. Cook - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Cook_Lisa_8x10_June_29_22-316_pp_rdax_130x162s.jpg Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Kugler_master_no_Flag_4x5-4734_pp_rdax_130x163s.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: My brother in law who does commercial real estate in an ultra liberal big city assured me we were going to see cuts begin end of '23, early '24 at the latest.. Philip N. Jefferson - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/jefferson_phillip_rdax_130x162s.jpg Michael S. Barr - Jul 2022 (worked for Clinton and Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Barr_michael_8x10_July_25_22-444_rdax_130x162s.jpg Lisa D. Cook - May 2022 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Cook_Lisa_8x10_June_29_22-316_pp_rdax_130x162s.jpg Adriana D. Kugler - Sep 2022 (worked for Obama) https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/images/Kugler_master_no_Flag_4x5-4734_pp_rdax_130x163s.jpg Here are all the voting members.  Attached File |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:32:50 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No one wants to admit that at least a brief recession is needed to get things back in order. The Fed won't say it, but I think they know it. I think they are just praying to God that staying mum on rates will be enough as opposed to having to come in and actually raise rates again. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Core inflation is up 3.9% year over year. Translation: no interest rate cuts. No one wants to admit that at least a brief recession is needed to get things back in order. The Fed won't say it, but I think they know it. I think they are just praying to God that staying mum on rates will be enough as opposed to having to come in and actually raise rates again. So much for the Fed's hopes for a "soft landing". |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:41:37 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So much for the Fed's hopes for a "soft landing". Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Core inflation is up 3.9% year over year. Translation: no interest rate cuts. No one wants to admit that at least a brief recession is needed to get things back in order. The Fed won't say it, but I think they know it. I think they are just praying to God that staying mum on rates will be enough as opposed to having to come in and actually raise rates again. So much for the Fed's hopes for a "soft landing". You cannot have a soft landing if you miss the runway. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:43:44 PM EDT
[#37]
CPI jumps 3.1% in January alone?
Wow, that's some spicy inflation |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:50:35 PM EDT
[#38]
The Whitehouse recently explained the real problem. Are y'all dense? It's the corporations.
 
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:54:05 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to disagree here. The latest data on jobs has been showing for months now that full-time jobs have been declining precipitously and part-time jobs increasing. So, the .gov is masking employment weakening with "Look how many jerbs were added!" propaganda not "Look how many full-time workers lost their jobs and now have to work part-time!". Work force participation rates are also down over that same period. If the actual inflation that people see with their own eyes continues to increase, the correction that has already started will be too obvious to ignore. Also lots of the jobs added were government. IIRC 500k for last year. The labor participation rate is low. Things are funky. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:55:14 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? Isn't job loss something that follows recession? |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:56:29 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: CPI jumps 3.1% in January alone? Wow, that's some spicy inflation It's an annual rate (since 12 months ago) not a month to month change. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 4:56:37 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You cannot have a soft landing if you miss the runway. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Core inflation is up 3.9% year over year. Translation: no interest rate cuts. No one wants to admit that at least a brief recession is needed to get things back in order. The Fed won't say it, but I think they know it. I think they are just praying to God that staying mum on rates will be enough as opposed to having to come in and actually raise rates again. So much for the Fed's hopes for a "soft landing". You cannot have a soft landing if you miss the runway. One pithy saying deserves another
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:01:13 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Monthly reminder that just because prices aren't lower doesn't mean that inflation hasn't softened. It's still above target, and the cumulative inflation over the last 3 years is gonna impact the middleclass for quite some time. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:04:30 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Also lots of the jobs added were government. IIRC 500k for last year. The labor participation rate is low. Things are funky. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm going to disagree here. The latest data on jobs has been showing for months now that full-time jobs have been declining precipitously and part-time jobs increasing. So, the .gov is masking employment weakening with "Look how many jerbs were added!" propaganda not "Look how many full-time workers lost their jobs and now have to work part-time!". Work force participation rates are also down over that same period. If the actual inflation that people see with their own eyes continues to increase, the correction that has already started will be too obvious to ignore. Also lots of the jobs added were government. IIRC 500k for last year. The labor participation rate is low. Things are funky. How do they account for "gig work" like door dash, uber, onlyfans....etc? A lot of people do "just enough" now to get by, and call it a week. It's not really employment in the classic sense, and technically they would probably be considered unemployed. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:05:28 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Isn't job loss something that follows recession? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? Isn't job loss something that follows recession? It probably depends. Not all recessions are built the same but you can draw your own conclusions from the data below. I think in today's case, we are already seeing unemployment starting to rise but we aren't formally in recession yet. A softening labor market could be the thing that finally pushes us over the edge as people who lost their job or are worried about losing their job are going to cut back on spending.  Attached File |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:05:48 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Isn't job loss something that follows recession? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? Isn't job loss something that follows recession? I have proxy access to several C-suite members of tech companies. I have never seen the level of proactive analysis of job elimination that I have seen the past 3 years, wanting to be prepared and ahead of the game at the first sign of demand weakness. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 5:10:50 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How do they account for "gig work" like door dash, uber, onlyfans....etc? A lot of people do "just enough" now to get by, and call it a week. It's not really employment in the classic sense, and technically they would probably be considered unemployed. If someone had a normal job but lost it, and started doing Doordash, uber, and onlyfans, that's 2 new jobs in the eyes of the government. -1+3=2 |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 7:14:23 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, there is indeed a price level that is appropriate and must be returned to. It is the nature of cyclical business (and mathematical equilibrium). The problem is we've had a fed that has tried desperately to prevent that correction and it has bitten us in the ass more than once already (and will soon do so again). No, there is no appropriate price level. Just think of the arguments that would set off! Both inflation and deflation do damage. Best to get inflation close to zero, and move from there. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 7:17:29 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It probably depends. Not all recessions are built the same but you can draw your own conclusions from the data below. I think in today's case, we are already seeing unemployment starting to rise but we aren't formally in recession yet. A softening labor market could be the thing that finally pushes us over the edge as people who lost their job or are worried about losing their job are going to cut back on spending. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3128052.JPG Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The job market is absolutely softer over the last few months but it's nothing like what we normally see during a recession which is my greater point. When you say full time jobs are declining precipitously are they just lower than a year ago or are they falling at a rate comparable to what we normally see during a recession? Isn't job loss something that follows recession? It probably depends. Not all recessions are built the same but you can draw your own conclusions from the data below. I think in today's case, we are already seeing unemployment starting to rise but we aren't formally in recession yet. A softening labor market could be the thing that finally pushes us over the edge as people who lost their job or are worried about losing their job are going to cut back on spending. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3128052.JPG Maybe that will finally start some churn in the housing market. |
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Posted: 2/13/2024 7:55:09 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, there is no appropriate price level. Just think of the arguments that would set off! Both inflation and deflation do damage. Best to get inflation close to zero, and move from there. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Yes, there is indeed a price level that is appropriate and must be returned to. It is the nature of cyclical business (and mathematical equilibrium). The problem is we've had a fed that has tried desperately to prevent that correction and it has bitten us in the ass more than once already (and will soon do so again). No, there is no appropriate price level. Just think of the arguments that would set off! Both inflation and deflation do damage. Best to get inflation close to zero, and move from there. Of course there is. The appropriate level is where the price both matches the ability of companies to make a profit on their product with the ability of their customers to pay. (Or when marginal cost = marginal revenue in classical economic theory). If the price is too high, then equilibrium can only be achieved if consumers are willing to spend more. If they are not, then profit declines. Deflation doesn't do damage per se and is a natural part of the business cycle. The problem is that we have a parasitic "financial" industry that refuses to let such occur. |
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