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Posted: 6/28/2023 7:45:30 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You claimed: That’s a big claim. All I’m asking is that you give me numbers instead of feels to back it up. I picked these two graphs to illustrate the effect of inflation on value. Notice that during 2008 to 2012 nominal value returned, yet the march of inflation continued to erode wealth. Note that this doesn't include Covid 2020 and inflation since then, which likely represent numbers next to made up from whole cloth...for example the FRED's assessment that the last 24 months of inflation is about 7.5%.  
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Posted: 6/28/2023 7:48:47 PM EDT
[#2]
We have (S)elections, not elections.
Our currency is dying (hence inflation) Our infrastructure is crumbling (RR, collapsing bridges, bad roads) Under Pedo Pedro we've discarded our moral compasss (norms in the closet and groomers/trannies are out) Our own "leadership" are globalists in their interest Many of our policy makers have dual citizenship. Which nation do they serve? Soon many of these military age illegals will be enlisting and upon discharge, granted citizenhip (& right to vote). Remember Rome relied on foreigners to fill the ranks of the Legion. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 7:49:49 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Leftists never create. They only destroy. They and their adherents are a cancer on the world. Yep. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 7:58:32 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well yeah, it seems apparent that these fuckos have infiltrated EVERY level of the administrative/ bureaucratic state especially. So if they’re (still?) the ones “in charge” when the house of cards collapses, won’t they be the same sinister tools pulling the levers for their glorious “rebuilding” phase, a la BUILD BACK BETTER? Or when you say “rebuilding at a more local level”, do you literally the mean the federal government will cease to function for all intents & porpoises, and State level government will rebuild from the ground up? Because outside of a constitutional (and possibly existential) crisis, I don’t see how that could happen. Then again, it may take an existential crisis (a real one) to wake us up? We're already at the point where many things done at the federal level cost more than the value they return, which is one of Tainter's bigger points about how complex societies collapse. Obviously the Feds are still doing those things because while costs exceed value, they still can afford the costs -- now. At some point they simply will not be able to afford it -- there's an upper limit to the amount of deficit spending you can do, debt you can carry, and money you can print and when you hit that limit you go into a negative feedback loop if you try to go past it. What will likely happen initially is low level cut-backs that progress in to large chunks of the federal (and tbh, probably state and local) government existing on paper but doing virtually none of the things they did in the past due to inability to pay for it. It'll likely be a circle the wagons thing where the political elite will spend the last penny of the nation protecting themselves and doing less and less for the nation as a whole. Anything that actually 100% needs to be done we get done where it is needed and that won't be at the federal level. I doubt the feds will cease to exist, but they'll probably get a whole lot less relevant. When the budget choice is $90B to the US dept of education v. $4B to the US Marshalls protecting the people voting on the budget, who do you think is getting paid? How much power does a government that can't meet people's needs actually have? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:14:43 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'll provide some counter examples. We have the richest zone of farmland on the planet. We have the most efficient network of internal transport on the planet. We are thousands of miles from the nearest country that can possibly threaten us. We have more long range projection power than any nation in the history of the planet. We're gonna be fine. Quit being a doomer. ROMAN EMPIRE has entered the chat.... ?? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:17:20 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I picked these two graphs to illustrate the effect of inflation on value. Notice that during 2008 to 2012 nominal value returned, yet the march of inflation continued to erode wealth. Note that this doesn't include Covid 2020 and inflation since then, which likely represent numbers next to made up from whole cloth...for example the FRED's assessment that the last 24 months of inflation is about 7.5%. https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic719886e768b8de185a9f0fcd00307f77.gif https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic277042fbc6b960fb79bdaae4af959d4f.gif The tap dancing..... Continues? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:27:12 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Can you name any radically new technology released in the past 10 years? High speed internet, smartphones, tablets, cloud computing, internet shopping... have all been around for 10+ years now. Computer processing cores and memory. Low cost LED lights in colors and dang near as bright as the Sun if wanted. Digital x-rays. Interesting engine designs, and some that are monuments to complexity and cost. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:28:37 PM EDT
[#8]
Women being allowed to vote.
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:30:20 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The tap dancing..... Continues? Uhhh....graphs are hard? Well, fuck Janet Yellen, tell the me the correct answer. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:31:47 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I picked these two graphs to illustrate the effect of inflation on value. Notice that during 2008 to 2012 nominal value returned, yet the march of inflation continued to erode wealth. Note that this doesn't include Covid 2020 and inflation since then, which likely represent numbers next to made up from whole cloth...for example the FRED's assessment that the last 24 months of inflation is about 7.5%. https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic719886e768b8de185a9f0fcd00307f77.gif https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pic277042fbc6b960fb79bdaae4af959d4f.gif Ok. You've managed to prove that there's inflation. No one disputed that fact nor was that what was requested but its...something. Now, to prove your claim all you have to do is calculate the real world loss that inflation represents and compare it to the real world losses that happened during the 08 recession. Again, please show your work. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:40:20 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Uhhh....graphs are hard? Well, fuck Janet Yellen, tell the me the correct answer. Obfuscation is easy! I'm sure you have a reason for picking arbitrary dates but perhaps you can enumerate them? ETA... Refer to the post above... |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:41:10 PM EDT
[#12]
Actually, I'm quite comfortable.
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:43:20 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok. You've managed to prove that there's inflation. No one disputed that fact nor was that what was requested but its...something. Now, to prove your claim all you have to do is calculate the real world loss that inflation represents and compare it to the real world losses that happened during the 08 recession. Again, please show your work. Uhhhh, if you look at those two graphs, they do exactly what you ask. What "math" are you suggesting I do? Like, do you want it in graphical format? The point I was making was that inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth. In the case of the two graphs shown, they actually present the best argument to your position, as they show the post 2008 GFC gains in equity markets as represented by the 2000 to 2016, excluding the largest and likely underreported CPI increases in 30 years in the last 36 months. So, if these positions were drawn out its likely further in the red. Now, you can make the argument that the equity markets are only one component of "wealth," but home prices for example showed similar rebounds during this time period, and are victim to the same inflation headwinds. You could make a similar argument that the elements of various parts of the inflationary basket of goods are cheaper over time, but of course that excludes some pretty big items like energy, education and medical care, with the costs of health care and post secondary education outpacing inflation significantly. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:44:53 PM EDT
[#14]
OP, I am experiencing same frustrations. Since plandemic, poor customer service and delays are the normal, but this is BS…let your money speak and be not afraid to speak your mind. It is only going to get worse, especially with millions of illegals distorting job and housing market…and being used as useful idiots. If Democrats successfully steal next election, you haven’t seen nothing yet
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:48:46 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'll provide some counter examples. We have the richest zone of farmland on the planet. We have the most efficient network of internal transport on the planet. We are thousands of miles from the nearest country that can possibly threaten us. We have more long range projection power than any nation in the history of the planet. We're gonna be fine. Quit being a doomer. So the Chinese spy ballon dropping malaria infected skeeters story is not true? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:49:32 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Even more fucked is the congregation. Imagine spending your final years gargling down this satanic verbal bullcum. You have subscribed to the demise of your people as a perverted religion. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/215281/Screenshot_20230628_155958_Brave_jpg-2866773.JPG  South Park The Stick of Truth Meeting Girls . |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:53:43 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Uhhhh, if you look at those two graphs, they do exactly what you ask. What "math" are you suggesting I do? Like, do you want it in graphical format? The point I was making was that inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth. In the case of the two graphs shown, they actually present the best argument to your position, as they show the post 2008 GFC gains in equity markets as represented by the 2000 to 2016, excluding the largest and likely underreported CPI increases in 30 years in the last 36 months. So, if these positions were drawn out its likely further in the red. Now, you can make the argument that the equity markets are only one component of "wealth," but home prices for example showed similar rebounds during this time period, and are victim to the same inflation headwinds. You could make a similar argument that the elements of various parts of the inflationary basket of goods are cheaper over time, but of course that excludes some pretty big items like energy, education and medical care, with the costs of health care and post secondary education outpacing inflation significantly. You said..... " You get that the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms, right?" In reference to the crash in 08. That was a 50% haircut. And you suggested the last year's have been worse bc of inflation. So, post the #s that show a 50% destruction of wealth in the last yrs, or, admit you were wrong. We've all gotten ahead of ourselves on the intrawebs. There is no shame in it.... ?? ETA.... I agree with you... We're on our way to the gutter. I don't believe it can be reversed. But... Last 2 yrs ain't but the white spec on the top of chicken shit |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 8:58:00 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Uhhhh, if you look at those two graphs, they do exactly what you ask. What "math" are you suggesting I do? Like, do you want it in graphical format? The point I was making was that inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth. In the case of the two graphs shown, they actually present the best argument to your position, as they show the post 2008 GFC gains in equity markets as represented by the 2000 to 2016, excluding the largest and likely underreported CPI increases in 30 years in the last 36 months. So, if these positions were drawn out its likely further in the red. Now, you can make the argument that the equity markets are only one component of "wealth," but home prices for example showed similar rebounds during this time period, and are victim to the same inflation headwinds. You could make a similar argument that the elements of various parts of the inflationary basket of goods are cheaper over time, but of course that excludes some pretty big items like energy, education and medical care, with the costs of health care and post secondary education outpacing inflation significantly. Quote HistoryQuoted: Uhhhh, if you look at those two graphs, they do exactly what you ask. What "math" are you suggesting I do? Like, do you want it in graphical format? The point I was making was that inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth. In the case of the two graphs shown, they actually present the best argument to your position, as they show the post 2008 GFC gains in equity markets as represented by the 2000 to 2016, excluding the largest and likely underreported CPI increases in 30 years in the last 36 months. So, if these positions were drawn out its likely further in the red. Now, you can make the argument that the equity markets are only one component of "wealth," but home prices for example showed similar rebounds during this time period, and are victim to the same inflation headwinds. You could make a similar argument that the elements of various parts of the inflationary basket of goods are cheaper over time, but of course that excludes some pretty big items like energy, education and medical care, with the costs of health care and post secondary education outpacing inflation significantly. Lets not start moving the goalposts here. You weren't making a point that "inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth". You made a very specific claim. Lets revisit it once again. Quoted: You get that the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms, right? What formula are you using to determine that "the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms"? How are you quantifying that, and what is the loss in actual dollars? Listen, just as an aside, I know you can't answer that question. It's OK, everyone knows that you made a silly comment that can't be backed up, we all do it sometimes. And when we do its best to just admit it and move on. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:00:11 PM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:00:34 PM EDT
[#20]
Think of all the dying empire that had planes running late
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:02:00 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lets not start moving the goalposts here. You weren't making a point that "inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth". You made a very specific claim. Lets revisit it once again. What formula are you using to determine that "the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms"? How are you quantifying that, and what is the loss in actual dollars? Listen, just as an aside, I know you can't answer that question. It's OK, everyone knows that you made a silly comment that can't be backed up, we all do it sometimes. And when we do its best to just admit it and move on. Bro..... Type faster..... ?? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:07:23 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bro..... Type faster..... ?? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Lets not start moving the goalposts here. You weren't making a point that "inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth". You made a very specific claim. Lets revisit it once again. What formula are you using to determine that "the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms"? How are you quantifying that, and what is the loss in actual dollars? Listen, just as an aside, I know you can't answer that question. It's OK, everyone knows that you made a silly comment that can't be backed up, we all do it sometimes. And when we do its best to just admit it and move on. Bro..... Type faster..... ?? Believe it or not I’m trying to wrap things up in the office right now. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:12:53 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Believe it or not I’m trying to wrap things up in the office right now. It's past 6 on the west coast. You're working too hard considering the empire is in decline
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:13:06 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'll provide some counter examples. We have the richest zone of farmland on the planet. Aren't we rather dependent on imports for fertilizer to make that farmland work year after year? Where does it come from? We have the most efficient network of internal transport on the planet. Being regulated like a mofo and killed to make the forced adaptation of EV's We are thousands of miles from the nearest country that can possibly threaten us. LOL! We are extremely susceptible to cyber attacks. A technological advanced country could bring us to our knees from anywhere in the universe connected to our internet. Or a country could release a virus that affects any race other than their own We have more long range projection power than any nation in the history of the planet. We start using those capabilities to the fullest, the planet is toast. I don't think the next war will be focused on weapons so much as cyber/biological warfare anyways. We're gonna be fine. Quit being a doomer. A few counter counter points. I work extremely hard 2 full time jobs to bring value to America and my businesses are taxed to death while I watch those who don't work suck on the government tit. Why should I keep going? It's getting worse by the day. I'm extremely jealous of those who went John Galt on this mofo and can't wait to do it myself. Because the country is circling the drain. I'm sick of feeding everyone else's god damned kids while I destroy my body trying to live an average life. Those are the thoughts of millions, and is not the thoughts of a nation on the rise. Democrats fucked everything and there's a .01% chance we can turn this ship around, stop the flooding and get back on course. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:30:00 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's past 6 on the west coast. You're working too hard considering the empire is in decline Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Believe it or not I’m trying to wrap things up in the office right now. It's past 6 on the west coast. You're working too hard considering the empire is in decline It’s even later in CST. Sun never sets on my empire. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:34:04 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The same drivel posted by every past empire back to the Persians. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'll provide some counter examples. We have the richest zone of farmland on the planet. We have the most efficient network of internal transport on the planet. We are thousands of miles from the nearest country that can possibly threaten us. We have more long range projection power than any nation in the history of the planet. We're gonna be fine. Quit being a doomer. The same drivel posted by every past empire back to the Persians. Which part of what I posted is either incorrect, or likely to change in the foreseeable future? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:34:59 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You think a collapsing empire is an internal problem? That’s not how empires work. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Good to hear you're worrying about our internal problems. Hopefully you live in Alberta, and will be in one of the few places we choose to incorporate into our new order. You think a collapsing empire is an internal problem? That’s not how empires work. That’s exactly how empires work. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:37:00 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If America is an empire, it's been a failing empire for at least a century. A successful empire exacts taxes and tribute from the territories it protects. Name one empire that has thrived by that mechanism. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:37:04 PM EDT
[#29]
I mean just watch this ^ That is our "leader" |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:43:34 PM EDT
[#30]
I keep hearing about this failing America buy so far have yet to see a single shred of evidence. Not seeing it, anywhere. Been in 20 states so far this year too.
Flew my kids out to RDU a couple weeks ago on SWA and spent some time on Topsail Island. Had no problems coming or going. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 9:55:40 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryI’m just along for the ride and trying to have some fun. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:04:18 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s exactly how empires work. No, I’m saying the collapse of your empire is also my problem. Given America’s reach, it’s everyone’s, though for some it’s more of an opportunity. The collapse is caused by an internal problem, but it affects everyone nearby, same as for Rome and all the rest of them. And since you know collapses are caused by internal problems, why were half your original arguments about external threats? |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:05:33 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lets not start moving the goalposts here. You weren't making a point that "inflation over time is very efficient destroyer of wealth". You made a very specific claim. Lets revisit it once again. What formula are you using to determine that "the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms"? How are you quantifying that, and what is the loss in actual dollars? Listen, just as an aside, I know you can't answer that question. It's OK, everyone knows that you made a silly comment that can't be backed up, we all do it sometimes. And when we do its best to just admit it and move on. That inflation is functionally permanent, higher (conservatively 2x historical norms, with little evidence of that subsiding) than 2008 and these conditions create the requirement for even higher ROIs to return to historic growth averages? I mean, sharpshoot all you like. I've yet to see your suggestion that this sustained inflation is really just a moderate condition and no where near the apocalypse of 2008. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:13:17 PM EDT
[#34]
Out of control and wide spread obesity is an indicator of a failing society. A secure society is the foundation of a successful nation.
Another indicator is our failure to hold each other accountable instead of looking the other way. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:19:36 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And just think, none of this is going to change until people start dying in industrial numbers. A) That is occurring, but because the television isn't informing the sheep of such information, they remain unaware. B) This is the change that is occurring because people are dying wholesale. For the sake of brevity, an extraordinarily large number of commercial pilots have passed, hence the FAA's recent rule "updates" for a littany of medical issues. Basically, they adopted some changes that give larger margins for health deficits that would otherwise disqualify an individual prior to said "update." Whatever the change, it's definitely not the nano-technologically-based experimental gene therapies that killed more of the clinical trial participants than the placebo, and has been pulled in many countries for males ages 18-39 for causing too many heart problems. No, it certainly would not be those. It's definitely not the nano-technologically-based experimental gene therapies that the CDC just stated can facilitate a menial 13,200% increase in auto-immune modulated heart problems. Nope! Not even a consideration. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:31:38 PM EDT
[#36]
It's not a dying empire. It's a dying republic. The empire is still to come. History rhymes again.
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:43:08 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That inflation is functionally permanent, higher (conservatively 2x historical norms, with little evidence of that subsiding) than 2008 and these conditions create the requirement for even higher ROIs to return to historic growth averages? I mean, sharpshoot all you like. I've yet to see your suggestion that this sustained inflation is really just a moderate condition and no where near the apocalypse of 2008. Sharpshoot? Your verbiage was specific! Do you think words don't mean things?!? Loss of language. Surest sign of decline..... |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:44:47 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Another indicator is our failure to hold each other accountable instead of looking the other way. Some people are trying my man!
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Posted: 6/28/2023 10:59:43 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sharpshoot? Your verbiage was specific! Do you think words don't mean things?!? Loss of language. Surest sign of decline..... The effects of 2008 were comparatively transitory if sharp and vicious. However, home value losses, while significant in places rebounded. Meanwhile, the penalties to savers and investors via inflation are ignored, likely undercounted and having ripple effects via things like increased local tax levies. Now, how much of the 2010-2012 recovery was due to QE is unclear. I've yet to read a definitive assessment, so one hand might be washing the other. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 11:12:55 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Open borders.  No national pride No American identity Putting the rights of criminals above that of law abiding citizens Parental rights and the need to protect children from those that seek to sexualize them is frowned upon There's a different kind of pride now... |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 11:13:45 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Leftists never create. They only destroy. They and their adherents are a cancer on the world. Humanity's plague. Morally bereft filth. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 11:42:16 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That inflation is functionally permanent, higher (conservatively 2x historical norms, with little evidence of that subsiding) than 2008 and these conditions create the requirement for even higher ROIs to return to historic growth averages? I mean, sharpshoot all you like. I've yet to see your suggestion that this sustained inflation is really just a moderate condition and no where near the apocalypse of 2008. Quote HistoryQuoted: That inflation is functionally permanent, higher (conservatively 2x historical norms, with little evidence of that subsiding) than 2008 and these conditions create the requirement for even higher ROIs to return to historic growth averages? I mean, sharpshoot all you like. I've yet to see your suggestion that this sustained inflation is really just a moderate condition and no where near the apocalypse of 2008. At first the goal post be like: Quoted: inflation of the last two years But then the goal post be like: Quoted: this sustained inflation |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 11:48:38 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: At first the goal post be like: But then the goal post be like: Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That inflation is functionally permanent, higher (conservatively 2x historical norms, with little evidence of that subsiding) than 2008 and these conditions create the requirement for even higher ROIs to return to historic growth averages? I mean, sharpshoot all you like. I've yet to see your suggestion that this sustained inflation is really just a moderate condition and no where near the apocalypse of 2008. At first the goal post be like: Quoted: inflation of the last two years But then the goal post be like: Quoted: this sustained inflation As in the recent spike of inflation past historical norms and the abandonment of the 3% target. |
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Posted: 6/28/2023 11:53:24 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As in the recent spike of inflation past historical norms and the abandonment of the 3% target. Quote HistoryQuoted: As in the recent spike of inflation past historical norms and the abandonment of the 3% target. Three pages and you still can't answer the question. Again, your claim: Quoted: You get that the inflation of the last two years is actually worse in real wealth creation terms, right? My request: Now, to prove your claim all you have to do is calculate the real world loss that inflation represents and compare it to the real world losses that happened during the 08 recession. Again, please show your work. |
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Posted: 6/29/2023 12:13:44 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Three pages and you still can't answer the question. Again, your claim: My request: Now, to prove your claim all you have to do is calculate the real world loss that inflation represents and compare it to the real world losses that happened during the 08 recession. Again, please show your work. I offered you a graph that showed that real world losses on three index funds during the 08 recession were essentially made good by 2012 even adjusted for inflation. Do you have a reason to believe those graphs are in error? I've allowed the issues of using index fund prices as mechanism for "wealth" but its also not a completely unreasonable one. I think most people would suggest that real estate would have followed a similar macro trend. Do you non-concur? The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index generally argues that home prices (another incomplete but useful proxy for wealth) returned to 2007 levels by 2016, so stickier than index funds, yet still returning to a positive (presumptively) inflation adjusted level. What would be your professional basis for arguing that inflation will return to some 2% norm within 5 or 10 years? Would you be willing to place a $1 wager on it? Here, I'm spotting you the 2% historical inflation target as a baseline. |
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Posted: 6/29/2023 12:19:06 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I offered you a graph that showed that real world losses on three index funds during the 08 recession were essentially made good by 2012 even adjusted for inflation. Do you have a reason to believe those graphs are in error? I've allowed the issues of using index fund prices as mechanism for "wealth" but its also not a completely unreasonable one. I think most people would suggest that real estate would have followed a similar macro trend. Do you non-concur? The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index generally argues that home prices (another incomplete but useful proxy for wealth) returned to 2007 levels by 2016, so stickier than index funds, yet still returning to a positive (presumptively) inflation adjusted level. What would be your professional basis for arguing that inflation will return to some 2% norm within 5 or 10 years? Would you be willing to place a $1 wager on it? Here, I'm spotting you the 2% historical inflation target as a baseline. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Three pages and you still can't answer the question. Again, your claim: My request: Now, to prove your claim all you have to do is calculate the real world loss that inflation represents and compare it to the real world losses that happened during the 08 recession. Again, please show your work. I offered you a graph that showed that real world losses on three index funds during the 08 recession were essentially made good by 2012 even adjusted for inflation. Do you have a reason to believe those graphs are in error? I've allowed the issues of using index fund prices as mechanism for "wealth" but its also not a completely unreasonable one. I think most people would suggest that real estate would have followed a similar macro trend. Do you non-concur? The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index generally argues that home prices (another incomplete but useful proxy for wealth) returned to 2007 levels by 2016, so stickier than index funds, yet still returning to a positive (presumptively) inflation adjusted level. What would be your professional basis for arguing that inflation will return to some 2% norm within 5 or 10 years? Would you be willing to place a $1 wager on it? Here, I'm spotting you the 2% historical inflation target as a baseline. Your graphs did not show shit. You have no idea what you’re talking about, and you’re the only person in the thread that doesn’t realize it. |
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Posted: 6/29/2023 12:27:55 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your graphs did not show shit. You have no idea what you’re talking about, and you’re the only person in the thread that doesn’t realize it. Please enlighten me. I'm apparently missing something important and you are obviously expert at this. If economic growth post recession makes whole losses at the tail end of a recession (say the loss of value of a stock held during that period of time) how is that more permanent than costs of sustained inflationary pressure? |
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Posted: 6/29/2023 12:34:47 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Please enlighten me. I'm apparently missing something important and you are obviously expert at this. If economic growth post recession makes whole losses at the tail end of a recession (say the loss of value of a stock held during that period of time) how is that more permanent than costs of sustained inflationary pressure? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Your graphs did not show shit. You have no idea what you’re talking about, and you’re the only person in the thread that doesn’t realize it. Please enlighten me. I'm apparently missing something important and you are obviously expert at this. If economic growth post recession makes whole losses at the tail end of a recession (say the loss of value of a stock held during that period of time) how is that more permanent than costs of sustained inflationary pressure? Dude, you’ve spent three pages throwing smoke to a very simple to answer question, if it were true. And even now continue to try to change the terms of your claims. Disingenuous is perhaps the most COC friendly term to describe your posts. You’re in no place to expect any kind of an explanation from me. |
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Posted: 6/29/2023 12:37:28 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Dude, you’ve spent three pages throwing smoke to a very simple to answer question, if it were true. And even now continue to try to change the terms of your claims. Disingenuous is perhaps the most COC friendly term to describe your posts. You’re in no place to expect any kind of an explanation from me. Quite the honest interlocutor. I mean, how can you argue your good faith with a post like this? So you know, but refuse to say. Well, that settles it. |
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Posted: 6/29/2023 12:40:50 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'll provide some counter examples. We have the richest zone of farmland on the planet. We have the most efficient network of internal transport on the planet. We are thousands of miles from the nearest country that can possibly threaten us. We have more long range projection power than any nation in the history of the planet. We're gonna be fine. Quit being a doomer. Genetic based weapons. Change the word We with China will. |
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