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Posted: 10/22/2024 10:47:04 AM EST
[#1]
I have been watching RCP national and battleground numbers for weeks. Today it is National: K .8 and BG: T 1.2. The numbers have been creeping up in T's favor for weeks. Big moves lately. This is feeling inevitable. I love it.
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Posted: 10/22/2024 11:07:27 AM EST
[#2]
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Posted: 10/22/2024 11:37:54 AM EST
[#3]
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Posted: 10/22/2024 11:41:49 AM EST
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bad2006z71: Idonbelieveit.jpg I need to get off my ass and vote today. I'm going to do it at lunch time. 
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Posted: 10/22/2024 2:40:35 PM EST
[#5]
Pulled the lanyard today in Culpeper, VA for Donald and Hung. In and out, 8 minutes.
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Posted: 10/22/2024 2:43:50 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 7: I voted last Thursday, in Fairfax County. 45 Minute wait to vote but I'm pretty sure we were surrounded by Liberals. I sure hope Trumps wins VA, but with an enormous amount of Democrats here, its not likely. Watch election night, Trump will be up in VA until the monsters (Fairfax County and Prince William County) start counting their votes. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 7: Originally Posted By bad2006z71: Idonbelieveit.jpg I need to get off my ass and vote today. I'm going to do it at lunch time. Always. I watched Cooch be up all night, 5ish points, then NOVA started reporting and it was an instant drop to like 2%, then an eventual loss. A republican has to be up 8%+ at the time NOVA starts to report, to even have a shot at winning Va. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 3:59:38 PM EST
[#7]
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:02:36 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Latest no toss up polling map https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/128204/IMG_2618_png-3356018.JPG I'm good with that one. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:05:33 PM EST
[#9]
 Attached FileI don’t see how she can win without the machines changing votes. She’s up by only 1.2% nationally. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:08:01 PM EST
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: I'm good with that one. I want NV too! |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:33:57 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rival14: I want NV too! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rival14: Originally Posted By APPARITION: I'm good with that one. I want NV too! I want WI and MN too but I’ll settle for 296 |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:35:29 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: I want WI and MN too but I’ll settle for 296 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: Originally Posted By Rival14: Originally Posted By APPARITION: I'm good with that one. I want NV too! I want WI and MN too but I’ll settle for 296 MN will never happen. Those people are on a different planet. It’s insane. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:38:14 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: MN will never happen. Those people are on a different planet. It’s insane. Agreeded |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:41:00 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: MN will never happen. Those people are on a different planet. It’s insane. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Originally Posted By APPARITION: Originally Posted By Rival14: Originally Posted By APPARITION: I'm good with that one. I want NV too! I want WI and MN too but I’ll settle for 296 MN will never happen. Those people are on a different planet. It’s insane. Still want it. Stretch goals. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2024 4:46:19 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:03:28 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:05:47 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Do we know that he didn’t turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:07:15 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. One of the great things about the left is that their entire worldview really is self-defeating if allowed to run long enough. In this case, they likely shot themselves in the foot with some unforced errors in the campaign process, errors that are a reflection of their retarded worldview. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:09:28 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: Do we know that he didn’t turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Do we know that he didn’t turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her. I always wondered about that, and even suspected it. But, I reasoned with myself and decided that maybe she was just so focused on sucking up to the palestinios that her bigotry kept her from picking him. If/when she loses, we'll start finding out the answer to some of those questions because people will start talking. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:10:54 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: One of the great things about the left is that their entire worldview really is self-defeating if allowed to run long enough. In this case, they likely shot themselves in the foot with some unforced errors in the campaign process, errors that are a reflection of their retarded worldview. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By arowneragain: Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. One of the great things about the left is that their entire worldview really is self-defeating if allowed to run long enough. In this case, they likely shot themselves in the foot with some unforced errors in the campaign process, errors that are a reflection of their retarded worldview.  Attached File |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:17:51 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: I always wondered about that, and even suspected it. But, I reasoned with myself and decided that maybe she was just so focused on sucking up to the palestinios that her bigotry kept her from picking him. If/when she loses, we'll start finding out the answer to some of those questions because people will start talking. I just pray that someone tired of being treated like shit in her campaign films Harris drunk, and losing her shit after it's clear she lost. 
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2024 5:19:21 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: I always wondered about that, and even suspected it. But, I reasoned with myself and decided that maybe she was just so focused on sucking up to the palestinios that her bigotry kept her from picking him. If/when she loses, we'll start finding out the answer to some of those questions because people will start talking. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By APPARITION: Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Do we know that he didn’t turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her. I always wondered about that, and even suspected it. But, I reasoned with myself and decided that maybe she was just so focused on sucking up to the palestinios that her bigotry kept her from picking him. If/when she loses, we'll start finding out the answer to some of those questions because people will start talking. Shapiro is balls-deep in the murder of a young Jewish woman who stabbed herself in the back of the head 20 times, and then locked the door to her apartment after the killer had left, and then went and laid back down in the exact same spot where she died, and then waited for her boyfriend to come home and find her - since he totally isn't the one who killed her. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 6:08:20 PM EST
[#23]
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TX, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2024 6:17:01 PM EST
[Last Edit: Wineraner]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: I always wondered about that, and even suspected it. But, I reasoned with myself and decided that maybe she was just so focused on sucking up to the palestinios that her bigotry kept her from picking him. If/when she loses, we'll start finding out the answer to some of those questions because people will start talking. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By APPARITION: Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Do we know that he didn’t turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her. I always wondered about that, and even suspected it. But, I reasoned with myself and decided that maybe she was just so focused on sucking up to the palestinios that her bigotry kept her from picking him. If/when she loses, we'll start finding out the answer to some of those questions because people will start talking. There's a DV murder while he was either AG or the local DA that he seriously soft pedaled, and that's the kindest interpretation, due to the connections of the alleged perpetrator. That's why he got shelved for the idiot Gov of a state she wins anyway. Edit: what @brownbomber wrote. |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 6:44:24 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
How do they know who people are voting for? |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 6:52:29 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlexAdams43: How do they know who people are voting for? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlexAdams43: Originally Posted By John_Wayne777:
How do they know who people are voting for? They don’t. They only know the party affiliation of the voter |
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Posted: 10/22/2024 11:59:25 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: Do we know that he didn't turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By APPARITION: Originally Posted By RTX: Originally Posted By Little_Bo_Peep: Originally Posted By RTX: Flip PA because that is almost certainly wrong. If Trump takes PA that's the ball game. Harris would still have a path to victory, but a very unlikely one. Proving once again what an idiot she and/or her advisors are. A Shapiro pick by her, and it would be a different conversation right now, not to mention having a much more effective running mate. I'm really glad she dicked that one up. Do we know that he didn't turn her down? Walz may be the only one dumb enough to run with her.  |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 10/23/2024 12:20:24 AM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH:
PA republicans need to go vote! You need to stop quoting garbage twitter accounts a firewall of 500k votes is no where near enough for them and they also haven't reached it yet 1.1 million firewall only gave them 80k final margin They have far less voters than in 2020, where are they getting all these active registered Democrats to vote on election day |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 7:33:29 AM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheTurnip: You need to stop quoting garbage twitter accounts a firewall of 500k votes is no where near enough for them and they also haven't reached it yet 1.1 million firewall only gave them 80k final margin They have far less voters than in 2020, where are they getting all these active registered Democrats to vote on election day Thin air. Hopefully the printing press is broken and the delivery truck full of ballots breaks down and catches fire. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 7:33:37 AM EST
[#30]
So here's where I think this ultimately ends up:
Kamala is going to under-perform Hillary in 2016 with an overall electorate that looks a lot more like 2016. She will most definitely under-perform Biden. She will turn out one of the worst campaign performances at the ballot box this century. I think she'll do better than McCain, but that might be it. She is going to be weak across all voter categories, but look for her to have significantly smaller margins among blacks, hispanics, jews and asians. She will under-perform in hard blue states. This doesn't mean she is going to lose CA and NY, only that the margin of her victory there will be significantly smaller than prior D candidates and that will contribute to her loss of the popular vote. Her under-performance with minority groups...blacks especially...will help put states like Virginia in play. And as I've said previously, if Virginia goes Trump it can portend a few other unexpected turns. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 7:44:27 AM EST
[Last Edit: bad2006z71]
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777: So here's where I think this ultimately ends up: Kamala is going to under-perform Hillary in 2016 with an overall electorate that looks a lot more like 2016. She will most definitely under-perform Biden. She will turn out one of the worst campaign performances at the ballot box this century. I think she'll do better than McCain, but that might be it. She is going to be weak across all voter categories, but look for her to have significantly smaller margins among blacks, hispanics, jews and asians. She will under-perform in hard blue states. This doesn't mean she is going to lose CA and NY, only that the margin of her victory there will be significantly smaller than prior D candidates and that will contribute to her loss of the popular vote. Her under-performance with minority groups...blacks especially...will help put states like Virginia in play. And as I've said previously, if Virginia goes Trump it can portend a few other unexpected turns. I can hope, but I still don't see T$ winning Va. I do see the bullshit 10% loss to Biden narrowing up to maybe 2-4% against Cumlala. Sadly Kaine is popular in this state for some reason even though he is a giant piece of shit, so I can see him pulling a better percentage for Senate than Cumlala for President. If T$ is up 8% for most of the night in Va until NOVA reports in, I might be shitting my pants if I was Cumlala, anything below that is a certain democrat win. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 8:05:00 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bad2006z71: I can hope, but I still don't see T$ winning Va. I do see the bullshit 10% loss to Biden narrowing up to maybe 2-4% against Cumlala. Sadly Kaine is popular in this state for some reason even though he is a giant piece of shit, so I can see him pulling a better percentage for Senate than Cumlala for President. If T$ is up 8% for most of the night in Va until NOVA reports in, I might be shitting my pants if I was Cumlala, anything below that is a certain democrat win. I expect NOVA to be less democratic than in prior cycles. Some of the groups that produced that level of turnout are less inclined to show up and vote this time around, or at least that's what we're seeing in early voting. Meanwhile in harder red areas, the number of people voting is increasing with new registrations...and those new registrations aren't coming out to vote for Kameltoe. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 8:16:13 AM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#33]
Weakness in NH would be especially telling. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 8:25:28 AM EST
[#34]
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Posted: 10/23/2024 8:26:54 AM EST
[Last Edit: John_Wayne777]
[#35]
There is zero chance that she loses Michigan and wins PA.
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Posted: 10/23/2024 8:38:45 AM EST
[Last Edit: StevenH]
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
There is zero chance that she loses Michigan and wins PA.
PA and MI have similar electorates and problems. But Michigan is ran by women and Michigan voters made it that way. In Michigan, voters made history in 2018 by electing women to all three statewide offices — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, all Democrats. Four years later, all three were re-elected, and in the Legislature, Sen. Winnie Brinks, D-Grand Rapids, became the first female Senate Majority Leader. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 11:43:47 AM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
Weakness in NH would be especially telling. The wife unit and I were just up in NH last week for four days. We traveled all around the state and by my seat of the pants counting, it appeared as though Trump was slightly leading in signage (we didn't count vacant lots or street corners where there were signs). I'm wondering how the state races up there are going to turn out. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 11:50:34 AM EST
[#38]
I rejected a call yesterday from Vermont. I never get any calls from that area, so I'm pretty sure it was Bernie wanting my help with the election.
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Posted: 10/23/2024 12:12:08 PM EST
[#39]
Kamala's presser about Trump's Chief of Staff, calling him a fascist, reeked of desperation. I hope she's in as much trouble as she appears to be in this thread
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Posted: 10/23/2024 2:13:40 PM EST
[Last Edit: APPARITION]
[#40]
Good discussion on the polling and comparisons to Biden and Hillary's performances. Still another one showing Trump at 312.
 SHOCKING 2024 Election Map Based On The Latest Polls From ALL 50 STATES! |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 7:31:50 PM EST
[#41]
 I should really stop looking at RCP. It's driving me nuts seeing polls go for Harris then others for T$. I really want to assume Bloomberg and Quinnipiac are out of their minds with Harris up in PA. But skeptical me (I survived the 2004 WA governors election) doesn't want to assume anything
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Posted: 10/23/2024 7:35:28 PM EST
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: PA and MI have similar electorates and problems. But Michigan is ran by women and Michigan voters made it that way. In Michigan, voters made history in 2018 by electing women to all three statewide offices — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, all Democrats. Four years later, all three were re-elected, and in the Legislature, Sen. Winnie Brinks, D-Grand Rapids, became the first female Senate Majority Leader. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By StevenH: Originally Posted By John_Wayne777:
There is zero chance that she loses Michigan and wins PA.
PA and MI have similar electorates and problems. But Michigan is ran by women and Michigan voters made it that way. In Michigan, voters made history in 2018 by electing women to all three statewide offices — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, all Democrats. Four years later, all three were re-elected, and in the Legislature, Sen. Winnie Brinks, D-Grand Rapids, became the first female Senate Majority Leader. Notice the silence from the MI Dems… freaking crickets. They know what’s up. |
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Posted: 10/23/2024 10:58:33 PM EST
[#43]
The fix is in. The only question is can we overcome it?
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Posted: 10/23/2024 11:52:27 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: Pulled the lanyard today in Culpeper, VA for Donald and Hung. In and out, 8 minutes. Voted early in Comal Co. TX. I expected it to be quick. It was a 2 hour wait—line way out into the parking lot. If I had to guess, I'd call it a 9:1 split for Trump. |
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Posted: 10/24/2024 7:21:29 AM EST
[Last Edit: APPARITION]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SkilletsUSMC: Voted early in Comal Co. TX. I expected it to be quick. It was a 2 hour wait—line way out into the parking lot. If I had to guess, I'd call it a 9:1 split for Trump. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SkilletsUSMC: Originally Posted By 1911SFOREVER: Pulled the lanyard today in Culpeper, VA for Donald and Hung. In and out, 8 minutes. Voted early in Comal Co. TX. I expected it to be quick. It was a 2 hour wait—line way out into the parking lot. If I had to guess, I'd call it a 9:1 split for Trump. Someone went to vote in a Minneapolis suburb yesterday and was told it would take 3 hours. They left and supposedly were going to be there when it opens today. And the early voting forms require your drivers license number, in a state that doesn't require ID. |
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Posted: 10/24/2024 8:17:56 AM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SkilletsUSMC: Voted early in Comal Co. TX. I expected it to be quick. It was a 2 hour wait—line way out into the parking lot. If I had to guess, I'd call it a 9:1 split for Trump. The margins Trump is going to win by in Texas and Florida are one of the keys to why I think he's going to win the popular vote. He's going to win by so many more votes in those states that it will help run up his total numbers while at the same time Kamala isn't going to be running up the numbers in LA and NYC. (LA and NYC accounted for just about all of Hillary's popular vote margin) |
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Posted: 10/24/2024 8:27:36 AM EST
[#47]
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Posted: 10/24/2024 8:29:29 AM EST
[#48]
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Posted: 10/24/2024 8:41:23 AM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By John_Wayne777:
Watching this unfold is like living in the path of a Hurricane and watching 40 different prediction models tell you whether to expect your home to be destroyed - just stretching out over 2 months instead of the usual 3-5 days. Despite that, I think this is one of the most valuable threads running and appreciate you tending it. |
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Posted: 10/24/2024 8:48:23 AM EST
[#50]
I'm sorta getting more comfortable saying Trump will win by a squeaker. It is far closer than it should be against a brain dead moron, but it is what it is. I don't think trump led any poll in 20, and now he's showing slim leads in several.
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