@ JW 777 (I know that’s now how the “at” function works, but I didn’t copy the exact username so didn’t want to screw it up)

Do you have any thoughts on how right now we compare to ‘20 or perhaps ‘16? If you got into that on another page let me know, I may not have read everything here. Or if you’d rather focus on the here and now, I get it. Enough is at stake to want to maintain that focus.

And just another note: great thread, and analysis as usual.

Has there been any significant change in the methodology used to conduct polling after the significant underrepresented amount of Trump voters that were found in 16 and 20?

There was a pollster recently who went thru some of the methodology used and talked extensively about how it oversamples Dims and makes a lot of assumptions about voting patterns being static from 2016 and 2020. There's been a pretty substantial migration in the country that could easily impact voting trends and the pollster felt like that wasn't being accounted for. I guess you could take a stab at it by looking at new voter registrations which have tended to be more GOP since they got their act together on same.

Lol I think they are about to be shocked by the number of people voting third party.

No one likes Kamala.

I do, and this is the perfect place to discuss that.

2020:

Trump's trump card, the economy, was gutted by COVID and resulting bad policy decisions. We know now that "2 weeks to stop the spread" was a lie from the getgo. It smashed the economy and even though it was recovering significantly and quickly, it wasn't recovering quickly enough to become the trump card again.

If you go back and look, public polling had Biden ahead by double digits almost everywhere, almost all the time.

Trump was going to lose, and going to lose badly....except he didn't. Trump significantly out-performed the polls and it took acts of "fortification" in a couple of key states to get Biden into the oval.

Two things happened there. Firstly, the polling seen through most of the campaign was absolute garbage. How you make up the poll and who you talk to impacts the result, including the assumptions you make about the electorate to start. If a pollster thinks we're in a D+9 environment...(meaning that the generic democrat has a 9 point advantage) then they have polling based on that assumption and over-represent groups that vote democrat in their samples.

The key question in the election is who is going to show up. You don't know ahead of time who will come out and vote. 2020 was an anomaly because in lots of places literally everyone got a ballot. That's a lot of ballots with sketchy (and usually non-existent) signature matching and minimal chain of custody. If you want to see how fucked it was, look at the signature rejection rate in California for the presidential election and compare how much higher the signature rejection rate was when the Newsome recall was in progress. Spoiler alert: It was exponentially higher when their boy was about to get recalled, showing you that they fuck with that to get the outcome they want. Part of the inherent corruption of the system.

So the polls were cooked from the getgo in order to promote a preferred narrative of Trump being hideously unpopular and with zero chance of winning.

Except, of course, the vast majority of Trump's voters did not run off and vote Biden. Trump definitely lost ground with some groups, but it was nowhere near as dramatic as the polling indicated.

Then towards the end Trump actually started gaining some momentum. He was legitimately behind a few points but started closing the gap in the final weeks of the campaign producing a race that was incredibly close. Close enough that the "fortification" had to happen to get the outcome.

So 2020 was way closer than anyone in the professional chattering classes projected the entire time, but it got even closer in the closing weeks. The outcome was so close that "fortification" in a few places could work.

2016:

Trump had no chance from the jump, at least according to the same chattering classes.

This was where we really got to see how broken polling was specifically on Trump. Pollsters made assumptions about the makeup of the electorate (again, heavily favoring democrats despite Obama's weakness and an unlikable candidate) and they polled with the usual methods.

What happened in 2016 is that a lot of people who don't normally participate eventually participated. If you're a pollster, you look at "likely voters" meaning people who predictably participate first and foremost because, well, they usually show up and vote. They are usually more educated and more likely to talk to pollsters. They are easier to reach. They're easier to poll.

In 2016 a lot of rural people were not easy to poll. And urban blacks who were pro-Trump were not inclined to talk to pollsters. In fact, there were plenty of stories at the time about Trump voters that were reluctant to talk to the press in any capacity because of the hitjob Trump was getting in the press. It didn't help any that Trump supporters were physically attacked on multiple occasions.

The polling then was scattered. You had most public polling showing Hillary far ahead with a significant democrat advantage in the electorate. Except the whole electorate is not evenly distributed throughout the states. Some pollsters were using different methods to try and reach some of those more reluctant voters to get a better read on the actual mood of the electorate. They were finding very different trends just by using different methods.

Response rates to polling are pitifully small. This is why in some polls if you look at the N you'll see that the sample size is tiny. I've seen some this cycle with as low as under 400 people. Why? Well, a lot of methods of polling like home phone calls have shit response rates but still cost the same amount of money to put on if you get a response or not. Some pollsters changed their approach and started using alternate methods like online, text, and blending with more traditional phone methods. Each of these methods will reach people with different inclinations and tendencies to respond.

The most accurate pollsters in 2016 also vastly increased their sample sizes. To get 1,068 people to respond they'd poll tens of thousands of people to get response rates that didn't reflect just the easiest to reach people. They saw Hillary's weakness relatively early.

In the last few weeks of the election warning signs started coming out of "the blue wall" with people on the ground in those areas screaming to the Hillary campaign that she was in trouble. AAR's of the campaign even mentioned it:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/trumps-road-to-victory/507203/

They didn't realize that the "blue wall" rust belt states were a concern because traditionally they voted democrat.

Well, that was when the republican offering was shitbirds like Romney who oozed with contempt for the working class. Trump was a very different candidate and had enormous pull with the working class. If you want to identify why the Republican party has been so hostile to Trump, there's your answer right there. What Limbaugh called the "country club Republicans" hated the base of their party worse than they hate the opposition. The people McCain called "the crazies" heap them. Trump, on the other hand, gets along with them great. Despite all of Trump's billionaire weirdness, he's a lot more of a regular guy than anyone the Republican party has put forward since Reagan.

Remember that Hillary Clinton is one of the most arrogant human beings on earth. She was surrounded by similarly arrogant people, all of whom know everything because that's how they roll. Her arrogance was stupidity, which is how Anthony Weiner's masturbatory habits dealt her campaign serious blows. No truly smart person has that kind of vulnerability...but she was used to getting a pass from the deep state and from the democrat machine so she wasn't paying attention to the people in PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin who were encountering voters who were outright hostile to the democrats in that cycle.

Thus the 98% chance of winning bullshit that melted into a pile of disbelief over election night. The blue wall crumbled and they lost most of the battleground states they thought they'd win, almost all of it because the working class voter picked orange.

So that leaves us with:

2024:

Once again I believe most of the polling assumes we're in a heavily democrat favored environment. Some of the polls are ridiculous, with D+9 assumptions.

Even so, you're seeing pretty much all public polling showing a close race. Except if you go back and look at the polls from 2016 that understated Trump's support in the country and in 2020 that understated Trump's support in the country and note that they have not made any radical changes to how they are reaching voters, you have to assume that the same polls from those elections are making the same mistakes this time.

Only with those mistakes, you see Trump performing far better than he ever has. We see articles before the election worrying about the blue wall:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-brace-crack-blue-wall-signs-north-carolina-slipping-rcna176046

https://nypost.com/2024/10/22/us-news/democrats-quietly-panic-over-fraying-blue-wall-harris-campaign-strategy-they-are-just-not-thinking/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-quietly-panic-over-fraying-blue-wall-harris-campaign-strategy-they-are-just-not-thinking/ar-AA1sJBhc

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kamala-harris-election-blue-wall-states-democrats-b2633777.html

...and I could go on. But you see the trend. In 2016 there were a couple of mentions in the press about bad signals from the rust belt, now weeks out you're seeing the press put a spin on truly bad news emerging from the rust belt states.

Translation: She's getting a stronger warning signal even earlier than Clinton did when Clinton lost PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. Meaning she's in deeper trouble there than Hillary was.

The reasons why she's in deeper trouble are durable across the nation.

If you want my opinion of where we're at related to prior cycles, we're looking at 2016 only far worse. Where in 2016 the thought of Trump winning the popular vote was laughably absurd, it's a very real possibility even in polling that shows every sign of being as inaccurate as it was in 2016 and 2020.

Looking at the same polls at the same times is the best apples/apples comparison and they show a much stronger Trump signal than we've ever seen, and this with no sign that the methodologies or core assumptions of the polling has shifted in the slightest.

That's the basis of confidence. They have understated Trump support and indeed Republican support, and my bet is they're understating it now, too. Which means that instead of this being a tight race, it's actually one where Trump is going to pull out the popular vote and win by comfortable margins in battleground states, including the blue wall states. He's going to utterly blow her out in states like Florida, Texas, and North Carolina. (which some pollsters ridiculously assume is a swing state)

I think PA is utterly lost to her and I think Trump is actually up by 5 or more there...which means he's going to win Michigan and Wisconsin, too.

I also believe we're not going to see a lot of vote splitting on the federal ticket and that the senate races in the battleground states are going to get pulled across the line by Trump's coat tails.

I think the closest contest in the nation right now is probably here in Virginia where it really does seem to be dead even and dependent on who shows up. We have a lot of DC infection here, and they're motivated to get out and vote because they are psychopaths who thrive on hating the rest of us.

NOOOOPE.

That's the other key.

Looking at voter registration trends you see that "firewalls" in various states have utterly disappeared. Voter registration trends in Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and a couple of other places show that the big blue reserves that democrats have depended on just aren't there in those states anymore.

You've seen significant migration out of the biggest bluest places by people who are sick of that shit and settle in, say, eastern North Carolina. They're not signing up to vote blue.

On top of that there is a shift in preference among working class asians, hispanics and blacks towards the more working class representative Republican party thanks to Trump. Trump has always been strong with working class whites and look for him to show up even stronger among them this cycle.

Swirl the overstatement of democratic strength in public polling, the early voting trends we're seeing in battleground states and the voter registration trends we're seeing in those states and it paints a compelling picture of Trump dramatically outperforming estimates.

All predictions are fraught with peril because you never know for certain who will show up to the polls, but based on what we are seeing so far it looks like Trump might well end up with almost as many votes as he got in 2020 while Kameltoe won't win close to what Biden got.

One place where that can come into play?

Michigan.

Michigan has fought hard to keep RFK on the ballot because they think it damages Trump.

Well, probably not anymore since RFK has been all over every outlet he can get on screaming at his supporters to go vote for Trump instead.

So who, then, does that leave to vote for RFK?

People who just can't stomach the idea of voting for Trump.

So who would that person fill in the bubble for if RFK wasn't on the ballot?

They may well have fucked themselves pretty hard with that little stunt.

Long range models are cooking up a signiclifiant hurricane/tropical system sweeping into Florida from the Gulf and moving up the eastern seaboard early election week. Potential to impact FL, GA, NC, PA (and others but they aren't really in play). Breakout the weather lasers and let's see where this goes.

So I am in the polling place right now. The line extends 50 feet out the door. I’ve never seen this many people early voting.

Unsurprising.

The Republicans finally accepted early voting and encouraged everyone to do it.

And in TN that'll be another state where they are just cranking up Trump's popular vote numbers.

Another data point:

David Axelrod...who might as well be one of Obama's shriveled testicles...was on CNN dogging Harris for not answering questions:

NEW: CNN’s Scott Jennings says Kamala Harris is a “double-threat” because she can’t think on her feet and can’t answer the expected questions.

CNN has railed on Harris after her town hall event.

Here are the top reactions:

6. Axelrod: She is word salad city.

5. Jennings:… pic.twitter.com/Mdrr46uzbz

Collin Rugg  (@CollinRugg) October 24, 2024

Why?

Because he's positioning her to be the subject of blame for what happens next.

And most will have forgotten Chuck Schummer's "The process is complete, from the bottom up and the top down!"  presser.

The most important thing for Virginia is not whether Trump wins Virginia.

It's Trump winning the EC in general, regardless of how, because the dense blue rot that resides in NOVA simply expands and fortifies so long as democrats have control of DC. I have no delusions that a Trump win will have massive and immediate impacts on the administrative blob that clings on there, but even a modest reduction/shift there would be helpful for Virginia.

Because it's becoming more and more obvious how little of a chance Kamala has at winning. They're trying to save credibility and appear unbiased.

#NEW PENNSYLVANIA poll

\uD83D\uDD34 Trump: 51% (+2)
\uD83D\uDD35 Harris: 49%

Emerson | 10/21-22 | N=860LV

Eric Daugherty  (@EricLDaugh) October 24, 2024

@John_Wayne777 are you professionally involved in politics & polls?  Just curious about your background

They left him in place because of his previous experience backing up Dem SoS from PA who advanced the cheat over the last decade.

It had nothing to do with his Jewness which BTW, the Dems don't care about showing their antisemitism.

My parents reported the same a few days ago.

FYI I'm hearing that between what we've seen for mail in ballots and then in person voting it's going to be bonkers.

Working the polls on November 5th.

Professionally, no.

But I do have a poli-sci degree and statistics minor.

Early voting is most definitely significant this time in a way I've not seen before either.

Something notable in Virginia about Cao: He's likely to pull an outsized amount of the asian vote, especially working class. That will matter in NOVA. How big it will be, I don't know. But there's a possibility it could be decisive.

Another possibility for the outcome:

Whats leading you to think Maine and NH are in play?

I know the one Maine CD is reliably R, but the other and the two state votes are usually D.

Trends among working class voters of all stripes, especially formerly union type democrats. That and voter registration trends in NH. It will be close either way, I think, but if the new registrants break the way registrants are breaking elsewhere it will likely mean Trump eeks that one out.

I'll believe a Trump win when he is being sworn in.  Seeing the photo the other day of Jimmy Carter propped up in the chair in his last days got me to thinking, I bet he voted some how.  Republicans complain that NRA members and church goers are not voting like they should.  While Democrats are getting every nursing home patient (coherent or not) a ballot.  I could see something like an Al Franken type victory for Kamala where she is behind well after election day and somehow after all the legal battles she mysteriously gets enough votes for the win.  

I'm hoping all this Trump has the momentum talk isn't like the RED WAVE in the last election.  My wife and I voted a few weeks ago at the Reston government center.  No one was there in line to vote but us.  I took that as a good sign based on the deep blue area that I live in.

People can download some basic mail in ballot info here: (not hotlinked on purpose).  https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/elections/elections-data.html

By no means get complacent, but the 2022 Red Wave was never gonna happen.  Repubs were tired, Trump wasn't running, and there was just no fire.  On top of that, Row V Wade died and got the childless cat ladies pissed off.

People are pissed this time, and Kamumbles has done nothing but piss them off more.

The fucking Teamsters didn't endorse her, you know why? Because that bald headed corporate sock puppet was more afraid of his people than the Dems for once.

It also helps that Trump has a good running mate now instead of an empty suit, and Trump has also gotten better and more relaxed at the game.

This is going to be a bloodbath, some Dems I know that are doing state campaigns are already resigned to being out of a job soon because their party installed an idiot.

This could change the election dynamic as well.

\uD83D\uDEA8BREAKING: Trump considering ending ALL Federal income taxes and replacing them with tariffs

If he does this, he will go down in American history as the greatest President since George Washington pic.twitter.com/P0OhnhDi6h

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) October 24, 2024

BREAKING: TRUMP IS NOW CONSIDERING USING TARRIFS TO FULLY FUND THE GOVT AND ABOLISH THE INCOME TAX COMPLETELY

— Jack Poso \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 (@JackPosobiec) October 24, 2024

Pipe dream. The GOP wouldn't sign on to that anymore than the Dems.

Seems like that would make us more dependent on trade than ever. We would have to rely on foreign trade to fund our government, including defense? Yeah....no.

I'd buy war bonds if it would give me the opportunity to make USAF paint cat girls on an F-22

Jesus.  Has anyone gone to Cato or the Reason Foundation to do a welfare check?  ROFL.

This ain't your daddy's GOP anymore.

Early voting starts tomorrow in the Peoples Republic of New Jersey. It`ll be interesting. The demonrat senatorial candidate sent out a fund raising e-mail in the last week that his campaign, while it was ahead in their polls, it was in single digits, and within the margin of error.

To me that`s a dead heat. Trump pulled in huge rallies in southern NJ during this campaign season. That and the conviction of that sleaze Menendez, I think the republican candidate has a shot. Even if Trump doesn`t win NJ, he might be able to pull the republican across the finish line. Splitting the NJ senate delegation would be huge. Supposedly there  have been internal campaign polls on both sides showing the state might be in play. I fingers crossed on that. The demonrats stole the gubernotorial election that kept FPhilMurphy in office.


ETA: I was a day early. It starts Sat 10/26.

Exactly what I'm talking about.

If what we're seeing in the data so far is predictive of direction and scale, NJ is beyond reach.

But if what we're seeing predicts direction but under-states scale, we're looking at some incredible results.

That's my uncertainty in all this. I believe I've got the direction right, but there is a possibility that everyone is missing the scale.

If Trump even gets close in NJ, you're looking at a situation that nobody saw coming.

I've seen three polls now, including two that are going to be public, suggesting they are. https://t.co/wSas2eEKKz

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 24, 2024

This in reference to people who voted Youngkin and Biden now voting Trump...which would be enough to flip Va.

\uD83D\uDEA8 ARIZONA EARLY VOTE UPDATE

\uD83D\uDD34 R-431,848 (+68,205)
\uD83D\uDD35 D-363,643
\uD83D\uDFE1 I-231,142

Dems led by 122K TDIH in 2020

Red Eagle Politics  (@RedEaglePatriot) October 24, 2024

This in Arizona, in reference to the dems being behind in early voting...when it was their big banks of early voters that gave them the slimmest of wins prior. That portends poor dem turnout.

News: Those Washoe mail ballots I told you about have dropped and they did NOT help the Dems. Of the 16K counted, it was: 6K, D; 6K, R; 4K, Others.

GOP statewide ballot lead is 18,000 out of about 417,000 cast.

Blog update this afternoon.

Jon Ralston  (@RalstonReports) October 24, 2024

That one from Nevada, in a formerly democrat heavy area that isn't turning out in early voting.

There are signals that Kameltoe's problems are far bigger than anyone has really calculated so far.

I'm not sure about 3rd party but there may be a lot of less than motivated voters that just stay home. Hopefully that is the case for the Dims and not for the GOP.

Neither party would sign on to that because they use the tax code to reward donors and control behaviors of everyone else.

That would be very interesting.

It’s becoming very obvious that new voting blocks are forming for 2024, much like in 16. What those demographics look like won’t be known for awhile but it’s going to flip all the known data points around and make election night incredibly interesting to watch. I’m really interested to see how the black and Hispanic vote break this time, I think for the black vote he may get some insane numbers

If DJT wins Virginia it’s over??

Half of it is.

I am not going to disagree, but to be fair its no surprise he would send an email like that out to attempt to generate funds and scare people to donate/volunteer/vote more. Its politics.

Just like I am skeptical the dems are as close to taking the Florida senate seat as all the articles suggest. I think they are trying to convince themselves and raise money and turnout when they are much further off then they say.

I strongly doubt he breaks 20%. Probably not even 18%.

But even 16-18% could be very interesting and change results.

I think you can say that with certainty. I'd even go so far as to say that a big win in North Carolina means he will have a very, very good night, likely taking it.

The only caveat on the VA thing would be if there were such a big cheat in one or more of the other 'swing' states that it surpassed the actual vote. And a win in VA would make a cheat like that elsewhere very obvious, I would think.

Honestly. Yes. He wins a blue state like Va he is most likely sweeping the battlegrounds. He isnt winning Va sadly. Will be closer than '20 though.

RCP national...tied. That's huge.

All he has to do is show the people that it could work. Everyone's broke and can't see any light at the end of the tunnel. Celebrities and politicians are losing their control.

This idea will take off because no one can form a reasonable argument against it. People are tired of our taxes going overseas.

If he wins Virginia it means there's such a large swing away from the democrats nationwide that Kamala is hammer-fucked.