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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:59:34 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: They are trying to reverse that message biden sent before about how "small incrusions" into other countries will be tolerated. They are literally trying to stop ww3, by showing force, now, finally. The 'small incursions' comment was intentional. The Biden administration wanted this war to distract from domestic problems. But it could easily get out of control. It doesn't look like anyone is actually trying to deescalate. This may turn into a game of chicken where neither side blinks. We're witnessing an incredible time in history. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:59:37 AM EDT
[#2]
Jesse Watters: Congress saw this as a gold rush
 Jesse Watters: Congress saw this as a gold rush |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:00:56 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By evilyoda: Don’t the russians understand they can make much more money being friendly to the west. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By evilyoda: Originally Posted By dbrad197: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: I agree that they probably can't pull off a 1930s Germany, but let's not test that theory  To your second point....good question. I think that as long as they occupy Ukraine, all sanctions stay. If they pull out and Putin is power, then maybe relax some. If Putin is gone and a reasonable man takes over...then perhaps most/all sanctions are gone. I'm just spitballing here, I don't have a definite answer except to say that if Russia ends hostilities then the world's reaction should take that in to account. I’m REALLY curious to see how long Putin’s thug buddies will put up with being financially raped before making a real attempt on his life or on his job. You would think some oligarch with nothing to lose and everything to gain would take a shot. Depose Putin and become Putin 2.0, only maybe slightly more friendly to west, at least overtly. Profit. If a failed attempt happened, would we even know, or are things wrapped up so right there that they could keep a lid on it? I hate seeing this happen to Ukraine but watching the RèalPolitik unfold in real life is kinda fascinating. Don’t the russians understand they can make much more money being friendly to the west. This is definitely one of the many strange things in a very strange war. FIGHT, Ukraine! 
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:01:36 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Parabellum08]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Yeah, I know. I get it. But I am about done believing this is all about the government and not the people, when the people are wearing Z on their clothing and painting Z on their cars in support of the military that attacked an innocent foreign nation and is murdering unarmed civilians. Not to mention all of the talk about how important the russian genetic line is. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: And many are protesting or leaving too 🤷🏻♂️ Yeah, I know. I get it. But I am about done believing this is all about the government and not the people, when the people are wearing Z on their clothing and painting Z on their cars in support of the military that attacked an innocent foreign nation and is murdering unarmed civilians. Not to mention all of the talk about how important the russian genetic line is. OOB’s experience matches my own. I heard a lot of shit about Ukraine and the West from nearly every Russian I knew or met between 2014 and a few weeks ago. Most of them were young, a few were not. Are there good Russians? Sure, but there are a lot more who do their Heil Putin goosestep salutes while watching Pervii Kanal. They’re only quiet now because they’re losing and they know it. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:02:48 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sabre_kc: So if we’re really looking for signs of impending economic collapse in Russia, might be good to look for corporate jet activity. Those guys have to have an egress plan. Not Yuri from the chain factory, I mean the Russian ballers that can afford jets. And if they can get out, where would they go? Rich people don’t survive long in Russia when people get all pitchforky, historically speaking anyway. Would be crazy if they couldn’t leave because nobody will accept them and they get eaten like the Romanovs did, and probably by Yuri from the chain factory. I don't know what we mean by economic collapse when talking about russia. Everybody being poor and famine? I doubt that will cause people to pick up torches and pitchforks against men with machine guns. Information is almost locked down in russia now. We are getting closer to the point where the government can shoot protesters by the hundreds and nobody will be allowed to say it ever happened. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:04:06 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Thanks for the tip. Do I really want to watch this guy on a Friday afternoon heading into the weekend? It's not cheerful. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:04:14 AM EDT
[#7]
Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons
In the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, instructors are giving last-minute training to members of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade as the Ukrainian military prepares to defend the city from Russian attack. Some of the trainees are new recruits with no previous military experience. The training on March 9 included how to operate anti-tank weapons provided by Western allies. Great video of the weapons, training, and how many people have joined the defense of Kyiv. They have a LOT of toys. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:04:25 AM EDT
[#8]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:06:39 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By evilyoda: Don’t the russians understand they can make much more money being friendly to the west. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By evilyoda: Originally Posted By dbrad197: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: I agree that they probably can't pull off a 1930s Germany, but let's not test that theory To your second point....good question. I think that as long as they occupy Ukraine, all sanctions stay. If they pull out and Putin is power, then maybe relax some. If Putin is gone and a reasonable man takes over...then perhaps most/all sanctions are gone. I'm just spitballing here, I don't have a definite answer except to say that if Russia ends hostilities then the world's reaction should take that in to account. I’m REALLY curious to see how long Putin’s thug buddies will put up with being financially raped before making a real attempt on his life or on his job. You would think some oligarch with nothing to lose and everything to gain would take a shot. Depose Putin and become Putin 2.0, only maybe slightly more friendly to west, at least overtly. Profit. If a failed attempt happened, would we even know, or are things wrapped up so right there that they could keep a lid on it? I hate seeing this happen to Ukraine but watching the RèalPolitik unfold in real life is kinda fascinating. Don’t the russians understand they can make much more money being friendly to the west. I never understood that either. China, Russia, all of them.. Play the game and get rich. Why is that so difficult? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:06:55 AM EDT
[#10]
Looks like the encirclement of Kyiv is getting close. What happens when Kyiv falls?
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:07:07 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hgunr: And thats why we won't be importing them by the c17 load. They'd be reliable R votes Not necessarily. Most Ukrainians think that Trump was Putin's agent or, at least, buddy, and Brandon is a capable leader of the free world who won the election fair and square. Questioning the 2020 election results or, for example, efficiency of Covid vaccines is a sure sign of mental illness to them. Of course, they may change their point of view but there is no guarantee. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:07:29 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: OOB’s experience matches my own. I heard a lot of shit about Ukraine and the West from nearly every Russian I knew or met between 2014 and a few weeks ago. Most of them were young, a few were not. Are there good Russians? Sure, but there are a lot more who do their Heil Putin goosestep salutes while watching Pervii Kanal. I'd bet any amount of cash money that 75%+ of standard, regular ole normal every day Russian people would say this war shouldn't happen. Don't buy into propaganda produced by Russian media of high school kids being told what to say/do. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:07:47 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alex9661: Contrary to what you can see in movies, vodka doesn't burn. Samogon on the other hand burns quite well if a bit quickly |
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NM, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:07:58 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SuperSixOne: Blackwater was an overhyped shit show in Iraq. Many have better track records, L3, Dyncorp, Executive Outcomes etc.. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SuperSixOne: Originally Posted By voodochild: I'd wager big on BlackWater. Wagner is all fur coat and no trousers. They got decimated in Syria. Many have better track records, L3, Dyncorp, Executive Outcomes etc.. I didn't know Blackwater was in Syria. Something many people don't know is many private contractors were killed in Iraq. I don't know if it was the same in Afghanistan and Syria. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:10:43 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Looks like the encirclement of Kyiv is getting close. What happens when Kyiv falls? A few huminatarian news pieces then a pivot to the new COVID or whatever to get the attention away from it. Can't have brandon and the cackler's failure showcased. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:11:25 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Durka-Durka: Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.  I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:11:27 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheResurrector: The 'small incursions' comment was intentional. The Biden administration wanted this war to distract from domestic problems. But it could easily get out of control. It doesn't look like anyone is actually trying to deescalate. This may turn into a game of chicken where neither side blinks. We're witnessing an incredible time in history. I think biden was just being a fuck-up when he said it. The guy is not competent. It sounded to me like he was trying to convey that there was not going to be some crazy response to some dust-up when some people got to close to each other. This was NOT the time to be saying anything like that. If I am right about what he was trying to convey, he should have just shut about it considering the situation, and anybody who is reasonably smart would know this is not the time to be all "good 'ol uncle joe" with the russians. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:11:40 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine, the sanctions will stay in place. The longer the conflict goes on, the more Russian assets will be seized worldwide. At some point in the near future, the Russian economy will collapse entirely and there won't be anybody who will prop them up. Even the Chinese aren't going to do that unless they get most of what's left of anything Russia has. Also, it's possible that Russian assets will be seized and sold for funds to be sent to Ukraine. That may occur even after the war is over. Russia won't have any say in the matter. Russia screwed the pooch on this mess. Their only way out is to get rid of Putin and pull their forces out of Ukraine. Until/unless they do both, things will go from really bad to ridiculously bad for them. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By dbrad197: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Again, not what his comment was about. Think big picture. We can't keep butt fucking Russia if/when they decide this was a bad move. Assuming Putin is gone. You've heard of the treaty of Versailles? Whole heartedly agree there. I don’t think Russia has what it takes to pull it together like Germany did In the 30s but who knows, not worth the risk and the Russian people deserve a better shot than that anyways. I guess my question is what if Putin isn’t removed, how does the world deal with that? Say he kinda backs off and a low to medium intensity conflict continues for months or years in areas that Russia has already taken, with Putin still leading the country? I’m assuming Vlad has done more to protect his fortune and status than he did to prepare his military for war in Ukraine. Unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine, the sanctions will stay in place. The longer the conflict goes on, the more Russian assets will be seized worldwide. At some point in the near future, the Russian economy will collapse entirely and there won't be anybody who will prop them up. Even the Chinese aren't going to do that unless they get most of what's left of anything Russia has. Also, it's possible that Russian assets will be seized and sold for funds to be sent to Ukraine. That may occur even after the war is over. Russia won't have any say in the matter. Russia screwed the pooch on this mess. Their only way out is to get rid of Putin and pull their forces out of Ukraine. Until/unless they do both, things will go from really bad to ridiculously bad for them. Of course, the other side of this is that the Russian people will view medium-long term economic isolation as further evidence of the Western Conspiracy to Encircle Poor Russia :( (TM). Few will bother to ask themselves if there might not be a legitimate reason for cutting Russia off from the world economy. Like every bully, they believe that they are victims. Never once do they ever look in the mirror and wonder why it is that no one likes them. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:13:47 AM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:14:49 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does a "collapse" even mean in russia terms? As long as they have fuel and shells they are going to keep shelling Ukraine even if their citizens rioting for food. The condition of life for the citizen just doesn't matter. Citizens can be shot if they are a problem. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:15:53 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp:
Those ukranian soldiers are going to get fatigued. |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:17:58 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voodochild: I wonder if Zelinsky has reached out to Eric Prince yet. Sort of a Black Water part 2. Based on past statements from Eric Prince. I believe certain services were offered, or at least ideas were floated to the US gov't. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:18:36 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: Of course, the other side of this is that the Russian people will view medium-long term economic isolation as further evidence of the Western Conspiracy to Encircle Poor Russia :( (TM). Few will bother to ask themselves if there might not be a legitimate reason for cutting Russia off from the world economy. Like every bully, they believe that they are victims. Never once do they ever look in the mirror and wonder why it is that no one likes them. 100% totally emphatically disagree. Russian boomers, sure. Not normal Russians, especially those 30 or younger who have never experienced Soviet-style communism or doctrine. These people have lived their entire life 100% exposed to the west and western news and culture. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:18:37 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: Of course, the other side of this is that the Russian people will view medium-long term economic isolation as further evidence of the Western Conspiracy to Encircle Poor Russia :( (TM). Few will bother to ask themselves if there might not be a legitimate reason for cutting Russia off from the world economy. Like every bully, they believe that they are victims. Never once do they ever look in the mirror and wonder why it is that no one likes them. I think this is a communist thing, china does it too. Always claiming they are the victims of injustice to convince the citizens to support them. And apparently it is a human thing to always fall for the "injustice" excuse no matter what. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:18:42 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Again, not what his comment was about. Think big picture. We can't keep butt fucking Russia if/when they decide this was a bad move. Assuming Putin is gone. You've heard of the treaty of Versailles? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By racer765: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Originally Posted By racer765: Originally Posted By HIMARS13A: Originally Posted By m35ben: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Russia isn't going to have any money for a long time. But someone does need to come up with an off ramp for the Russians to take when they get tired of getting hammered. put down gunsky. walk eastsky. or die. Lol you can always tell the ones that didn't absorb their history lessons. Hint- his comment wasn't about individual soldiers. officers will die. fragged or sniped. conscripts get the chance to live if they're not carrying a weapon. the offramp for the leaders has been passed. too late. kill them all. the buildup of usaf/nato to the west is more than we saw in the leadup to ds. and we have more and better weapons than we did 20 years ago and the local opposition is far more motivated and not likely to turn on us. Again, not what his comment was about. Think big picture. We can't keep butt fucking Russia if/when they decide this was a bad move. Assuming Putin is gone. You've heard of the treaty of Versailles? A change in leadership and attitude would also go along way to speed their economic recovery. |
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NZL
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:19:11 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alex9661: Not necessarily. Most Ukrainians think that Trump was Putin's agent or, at least, buddy, and Brandon is a capable leader of the free world who won the election fair and square. Questioning the 2020 election results or, for example, efficiency of Covid vaccines is a sure sign of mental illness to them. Of course, they may change their point of view but there is no guarantee. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alex9661: Originally Posted By Hgunr: And thats why we won't be importing them by the c17 load. They'd be reliable R votes Not necessarily. Most Ukrainians think that Trump was Putin's agent or, at least, buddy, and Brandon is a capable leader of the free world who won the election fair and square. Questioning the 2020 election results or, for example, efficiency of Covid vaccines is a sure sign of mental illness to them. Of course, they may change their point of view but there is no guarantee. Or they'll say what ever they think Biden wants to hear to get some help? Occams razor and all that. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:19:49 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancow: I never understood that either. China, Russia, all of them.. Play the game and get rich. Why is that so difficult? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancow: Originally Posted By evilyoda: Originally Posted By dbrad197: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: I agree that they probably can't pull off a 1930s Germany, but let's not test that theory To your second point....good question. I think that as long as they occupy Ukraine, all sanctions stay. If they pull out and Putin is power, then maybe relax some. If Putin is gone and a reasonable man takes over...then perhaps most/all sanctions are gone. I'm just spitballing here, I don't have a definite answer except to say that if Russia ends hostilities then the world's reaction should take that in to account. I’m REALLY curious to see how long Putin’s thug buddies will put up with being financially raped before making a real attempt on his life or on his job. You would think some oligarch with nothing to lose and everything to gain would take a shot. Depose Putin and become Putin 2.0, only maybe slightly more friendly to west, at least overtly. Profit. If a failed attempt happened, would we even know, or are things wrapped up so right there that they could keep a lid on it? I hate seeing this happen to Ukraine but watching the RèalPolitik unfold in real life is kinda fascinating. Don’t the russians understand they can make much more money being friendly to the west. I never understood that either. China, Russia, all of them.. Play the game and get rich. Why is that so difficult? The idea that nations will not go to war simply due to economic self-interest has been proven wrong many times. Indeed, the Russian state itself has proven that idea wrong pretty bigly in the past. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:22:24 AM EDT
[#28]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:22:44 AM EDT
[#29]
 We don't know Ukraine's battle plan, but we know Russia's objective (Kiev). Part of me hopes the Ukrainians are building a trap. Get the Russian forces in/around Kiev, and launch a fast spearhead from the west to the Dnieper to cut them off. Encircle them and '6th army in Stalingrad' those bitches. 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:23:38 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: Or they'll say what ever they think Biden wants to hear to get some help? Occams razor and all that. That one is kind of obvious. They are in kind of a rough spot at the moment. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:24:39 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryThe Ukrainians must clang when they walk. They had to be about 60 yards when they took the shot. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:24:53 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: A mysterious Ukrainian pilot who has shot down up to ten Russian jets had been thought to be a myth. But now the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces have released an image of the so-called Ghost of Kyiv, alongside his threat: 'Hello occupier, I'm coming for your soul!'. https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/11/22/55251903-10604419-But_now_the_general_staff_of_the_Ukrainian_armed_forces_have_rel-m-18_1647036960228.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/11/22/55252013-10604419-image-a-19_1647036985935.jpg Link The legend lives on. 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:25:08 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SuperSixOne: https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/11/22/55252333-10604345-image-a-27_1647037874718.jpg We don't know Ukraine's battle plan, but we know Russia's objective (Kiev). Part of me hopes the Ukrainians are building a trap. Get the Russian forces in/around Kiev, and launch a fast spearhead from the west to the Dnieper to cut them off. Encircle them and '6th army in Stalingrad' those bitches. I’d guess they lack the manpower for that, but it would be epic. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:25:33 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BigReb: I believe the originals were petrol, soap or wax, acid, and an envelope of rust shavings taped to the side. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BigReb: Originally Posted By nickmemphis: BTW, while I deny categorically ever having done any practical testing of self igniting Molotov systems, I imagine hypothetically that the chlorate soaked paper towel technique is not the most reliable one. In minecraft. I believe the originals were petrol, soap or wax, acid, and an envelope of rust shavings taped to the side. I would imagine again purely hypothetically and without any practical testing of any kind in violation of any state or federal laws, the one I posted works every time. 100% of the time it works every time. Theoretically. 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:25:45 AM EDT
[#35]
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:26:29 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv: I'd bet any amount of cash money that 75%+ of standard, regular ole normal every day Russian people would say this war shouldn't happen. Don't buy into propaganda produced by Russian media of high school kids being told what to say/do. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv: Originally Posted By Parabellum08: OOB’s experience matches my own. I heard a lot of shit about Ukraine and the West from nearly every Russian I knew or met between 2014 and a few weeks ago. Most of them were young, a few were not. Are there good Russians? Sure, but there are a lot more who do their Heil Putin goosestep salutes while watching Pervii Kanal. I'd bet any amount of cash money that 75%+ of standard, regular ole normal every day Russian people would say this war shouldn't happen. Don't buy into propaganda produced by Russian media of high school kids being told what to say/do. I speak only from my personal experience. Perhaps yours is different. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:28:37 AM EDT
[#37]
Frankly, I would be shocked if Russians, oligarchs or not, turn on Putin.
We are talking about the same people who endured the Stalinist purges, and generations of deprivation under the Tsars. The Tsars hung on into the 20th century and Stalin died of natural causes unless you are a conspiracy enthusiast. i think expecting the Russian polity to solve this for the world is like me expecting a unicorn to pee on my leg this evening. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:29:32 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: I speak only from my personal experience. Perhaps yours is different. Shit talk and war are 2 different things bro |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:30:11 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: Seconded. Posters that want to discuss conspiracies should use the other threads. This one is for news, political climate, strategy, and speculation on combat operations or war expansion. And a bit of levity when I see an opportunity. 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:31:25 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: Of course, the other side of this is that the Russian people will view medium-long term economic isolation as further evidence of the Western Conspiracy to Encircle Poor Russia :( (TM). Few will bother to ask themselves if there might not be a legitimate reason for cutting Russia off from the world economy. Like every bully, they believe that they are victims. Never once do they ever look in the mirror and wonder why it is that no one likes them. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: Originally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By dbrad197: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: Again, not what his comment was about. Think big picture. We can't keep butt fucking Russia if/when they decide this was a bad move. Assuming Putin is gone. You've heard of the treaty of Versailles? Whole heartedly agree there. I don’t think Russia has what it takes to pull it together like Germany did In the 30s but who knows, not worth the risk and the Russian people deserve a better shot than that anyways. I guess my question is what if Putin isn’t removed, how does the world deal with that? Say he kinda backs off and a low to medium intensity conflict continues for months or years in areas that Russia has already taken, with Putin still leading the country? I’m assuming Vlad has done more to protect his fortune and status than he did to prepare his military for war in Ukraine. Unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine, the sanctions will stay in place. The longer the conflict goes on, the more Russian assets will be seized worldwide. At some point in the near future, the Russian economy will collapse entirely and there won't be anybody who will prop them up. Even the Chinese aren't going to do that unless they get most of what's left of anything Russia has. Also, it's possible that Russian assets will be seized and sold for funds to be sent to Ukraine. That may occur even after the war is over. Russia won't have any say in the matter. Russia screwed the pooch on this mess. Their only way out is to get rid of Putin and pull their forces out of Ukraine. Until/unless they do both, things will go from really bad to ridiculously bad for them. Of course, the other side of this is that the Russian people will view medium-long term economic isolation as further evidence of the Western Conspiracy to Encircle Poor Russia :( (TM). Few will bother to ask themselves if there might not be a legitimate reason for cutting Russia off from the world economy. Like every bully, they believe that they are victims. Never once do they ever look in the mirror and wonder why it is that no one likes them. Some will. A lot won't....a lot know exactly why this is happening. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:32:41 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancow: I never understood that either. China, Russia, all of them.. Play the game and get rich. Why is that so difficult? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mancow: Originally Posted By evilyoda: Originally Posted By dbrad197: Originally Posted By RolandofGilead: I agree that they probably can't pull off a 1930s Germany, but let's not test that theory To your second point....good question. I think that as long as they occupy Ukraine, all sanctions stay. If they pull out and Putin is power, then maybe relax some. If Putin is gone and a reasonable man takes over...then perhaps most/all sanctions are gone. I'm just spitballing here, I don't have a definite answer except to say that if Russia ends hostilities then the world's reaction should take that in to account. I’m REALLY curious to see how long Putin’s thug buddies will put up with being financially raped before making a real attempt on his life or on his job. You would think some oligarch with nothing to lose and everything to gain would take a shot. Depose Putin and become Putin 2.0, only maybe slightly more friendly to west, at least overtly. Profit. If a failed attempt happened, would we even know, or are things wrapped up so right there that they could keep a lid on it? I hate seeing this happen to Ukraine but watching the RèalPolitik unfold in real life is kinda fascinating. Don’t the russians understand they can make much more money being friendly to the west. I never understood that either. China, Russia, all of them.. Play the game and get rich. Why is that so difficult? Wealthy democrats think poor Americans can't afford to have principles or ideologies as well.  |
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NZL
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:34:38 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:36:05 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv: Shit talk and war are 2 different things bro Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv: Originally Posted By Parabellum08: I speak only from my personal experience. Perhaps yours is different. Shit talk and war are 2 different things bro Some Russians don't want to admit to a foreigner how fucked up their country is. You're taking to expats. The fact they don't live in Russia should tell you something. I've spent a significant amount of time there and know a lot of them. Hondaciv is pretty close in my estimate. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:37:51 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Dracster: Azov getting resupplied in Mariupol https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-03-11_14-25-43_jpg-2310386.JPG I hope they get everything they need. I wish we were giving them more. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:39:56 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet China. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:42:51 AM EDT
[#46]
Sirens going off now.
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:43:29 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tboy: Sirens going off now. |
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NZL
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:43:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: TheLurker]
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: China. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: Originally Posted By TheLurker: What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet China. China won't seriously back Russia. Russia just fucked their Taiwan plans. Eta. China also won't waste their resources on a losing proposition in Europe. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:45:55 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: Or they'll say what ever they think Biden wants to hear to get some help? Occams razor and all that. I've been lurking on a couple of Ukrainian boards and reading news on Ukrainian sites for years. Unfortunately, that's what they really believe. |
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MT, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 1:50:12 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: China won't seriously back Russia. Russia just fucked their Taiwan plans. Eta. China also won't waste their resources on a losing proposition in Europe. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By SheltiePimp: Originally Posted By TheLurker: What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet China. China won't seriously back Russia. Russia just fucked their Taiwan plans. Eta. China also won't waste their resources on a losing proposition in Europe. Maybe they'll invest heavily in a failing Russia so they can own that too. They don't seem to be as...short-sighted. |
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