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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 1022 of 5591)
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Link Posted: 3/12/2022 1:51:31 AM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By Dracster:
Azov getting resupplied in Mariupol

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-03-11_14-25-43_jpg-2310386.JPG
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So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 1:55:18 AM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:


China won't seriously back Russia. Russia just fucked their Taiwan plans.
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They are backing Russia, they will back Russia, they have stated many times they are backing Russia and their role is to negotiate peace (on behalf of Russia). They have made their position extremely clear.

They are a hair length away from signing a joint security agreement, similar to what Nato is.

This was just before the Olympics when everyone thought Russia wouldn't invade.

Russia and China Unveil a Pact Against America and the West

In their matching mauve ties, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping last week declared a “new era” in the global order and, at least in the short term, endorsed their respective territorial ambitions in Ukraine and Taiwan. The world’s two most powerful autocrats unveiled a sweeping long-term agreement that also challenges the United States as a global power, nato as a cornerstone of international security, and liberal democracy as a model for the world. “Friendship between the two States has no limits,” they vowed in the communiqué, released after the two leaders met on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. “There are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”

Agreements between Moscow and Beijing, including the Treaty of Friendship of 2001, have traditionally been laden with lofty, if vague, rhetoric that faded into forgotten history. But the new and detailed five-thousand-word agreement is more than a collection of the usual tropes, Robert Daly, the director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, at the Wilson Center, in Washington, told me. Although it falls short of a formal alliance, like nato, the agreement reflects a more elaborate show of solidarity than anytime in the past. “This is a pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder against America and the West, ideologically as well as militarily,” Daly said. “This statement might be looked back on as the beginning of Cold War Two.” The timing and clarity of the communiqué—amid tensions on Russia’s border with Europe and China’s aggression around Taiwan—will “give historians the kind of specific event that they often focus on.”

Beyond security, the declaration also pledged collaboration on space, climate change, the Internet, and artificial intelligence. Politically, the document claimed that there is “no one-size-fits-all” type of democracy, and heralded both forms of authoritarian rule in Moscow and Beijing as successful democracies. “It’s a pretty striking step closer to an alliance and shows that they’re very much aligned in their vision of the world order in the twenty-first century,” Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, told me. Putin described the broader strategic partnership with China as “unprecedented.” Xi said that their joint strategy would have a “far-reaching influence on China, Russia, and the world.”


U.S. experts described the lengthy statement, which was riddled with false and accusatory language, as startling. “I’ve never seen a joint statement from both leaders using this kind of language. They’ve joined forces,” Angela Stent, a Russia expert who served at the National Intelligence Council and wrote “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest,” told me. She described the communiqué as “quite Orwellian” and called it an “inflection point” in which Russia and China are challenging the balance of power that has defined the global order since the Cold War ended, three decades ago. “We could be at the beginning of a new era as the Russian relationship with the West deteriorates and China’s does as well.” The agreement puts Washington and its key allies “in a terrible bind,” she added. “The fact is, whatever we do to counter what Russia is doing only reinforces its reliance on China.”

The joint statement is, at least for the moment, a diplomatic boon for Putin amid his showdown with the United States and Europe over Ukraine. For the first time in any of Russia’s recent aggressions, Putin has won the open support of China’s leader. China did not back Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008, or its invasion of Ukraine in 2014, nor has it recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Now Moscow and Beijing, which both have the ability to veto any resolution at the United Nations, have declared their opposition to further enlargement of nato and to the formation of other regional security alliances. “Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour revolutions, and will increase cooperation,” the often unwieldy statement declared. “This is where they pledge their troth,” Daly said.

Washington had been pressuring Beijing, including in a call last month between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in an attempt to keep China neutral or out of the Ukraine crisis. Now, at least on paper and in public voice, it has budged, Andrew Weiss, a former National Security Council official who is currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me. “Russia now has China as an endorser of the egregious and inflammatory position that Putin has staked out on Ukraine.”

Hints of China’s shift have been emerging in the past two weeks, as the Ukraine crisis began spilling over onto already tense U.S.-China relations. President Biden’s foreign policy had hoped to steer relations with Beijing toward stable and manageable competition. Instead, China, which is normally discreet in its diplomacy, is visibly pushing back. After his conversation with Blinken last month, the Chinese foreign minister said publicly that Russia’s security concern about nato expansion is legitimate and must be addressed. The Biden Administration countered last week with an admonition. The State Department warned that the West has “an array of tools” to deploy against foreign companies—including in China—that help Russia evade punitive sanctions.

In the new agreement, Russia, in turn, reaffirmed its support for Beijing’s One China policy that Taiwan is “an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence.” The joint communiqué also supported Beijing’s ruthless crackdown on dissidents in Hong Kong in the past two years. The bold assertions in the joint statement follow deepening military ties between the two nations in the past decade, Weiss noted. Russia and China have conducted dozens of joint exercises and war games that have involved as many as ten thousand troops to hone tactical and operational capabilities. Russian officials have boasted that the growing defense partnership was designed to warn the United States and nato not to pressure Moscow. The naval operations have included mock seizures of islands, patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, and surface-to-air missile targeting. Last summer, Putin and Xi both witnessed military exercises in China. In October, they held joint naval exercises off Russia’s far-eastern coast. “The frequency, complexity, and geographic scope has steadily increased, reflecting the growth in the overall bilateral defense relationship,” the U.S. Naval Institute reported last year. As two nuclear-armed countries that span Europe and Asia, the more muscular alignment between Russia and China could be a game changer militarily and diplomatically. “They want this to be as threatening as a formal alliance to the West, but don’t want to formally commit to mutual defense,” Daly said. “They don’t have to. The spectre of their mutual aid will serve as a deterrent.”

The joint announcement reflects a shift in the balance of power between Russia and China as well. “The Russians for the longest time were condescending in their view of China as an uninteresting rural society,” Weiss said. “Now China looks at Russia and says, ‘What are you good for?’ China’s ambitions do not run through Moscow.” China has become “canny” in exploiting Russia’s neediness, he said. “It uses Russia as a cat’s paw to disrupt the U.S. pivot to Asia. The fact that we have to keep coming back to Putin, as the neighborhood bully, is beneficial to China.”

Putin was the highest-profile leader to show up for the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The U.S. and other major powers opted not to send high-profile delegations, to protest China’s human-rights abuses, particularly against its Uyghur minority. Russia had received a two-year ban from officially sending teams to the Olympics after conducting a years-long, state-sponsored doping scheme. Russian athletes—who are not supposed to carry their nation’s flag, wear the Russian insignia, or play the national anthem—instead compete as part of the Russian Olympic Committee. After his meeting with Xi, Putin applauded the team during the opening ceremony’s Parade of Nations on Friday. But his visit clearly had another purpose.

The question now is how far Russia and China will take their agreement. “Words are one thing,” Vershbow, the former Ambassador, said. “We still have to see if the statement will translate into greater tangible Chinese support for Russia’s aggressive behavior—or whether they’ll say, ‘We’re with you, good luck,’ and then turn the other way.” The Chinese have different and sometimes more pragmatic interests in their relations with the U.S. and Europe, which are vital to their economy. “They don’t want to burn all bridges for the sake of a relationship with Russia.”


----------------------------------------------------




Link Posted: 3/12/2022 1:56:26 AM EDT
[#3]
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

"Recent polling data provides the clearest indication of Russian popular support for the war in Ukraine. In the days following the February 24 invasion, Putin’s personal approval rating actually rose to multi-year highs. According to state pollster VTsIOM, his rating jumped six percent in the week ending February 27 to reach 70%. Fellow polling agency FOM recorded a seven percent increase over the same period, bringing approval of Putin to 71%.

Ordinary Russians have been queuing up to publicly endorse the war effort. The “Z” branding used by Russian troops in Ukraine is becoming increasingly ubiquitous across the country as a shorthand symbol of support, while a rapidly expanding list of public figures and professional collectives have released statements backing the invasion. For example, the heads of 250 Russian universities published an official address by the Union of Russian Rectors on March 4 justifying the war and calling on Russians to rally around Putin."
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 1:57:13 AM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:


Watch his ft Benning one. Without 🇺🇸 protection of global seaways, China is dead in the water. Simple solution is simple.
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By thezentree:
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
@Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan?  He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it.  We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now.  He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data.  He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed.  He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC.  His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube.  His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning.

He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU


Just got a chance to watch this - is this guy well regarded? That's quite the future he's predicted for us all.


He's very well regarded.

Although I dont think his current overall analysis takes adequate consideration of the new US-China Cold War 2 and how that will keep the US engaged with the world for at least the next decade or two in asia.


Watch his ft Benning one. Without 🇺🇸 protection of global seaways, China is dead in the water. Simple solution is simple.


What I'm saying is that I dont see the US abandoning the protection of global seaways prcisely because of its desire to build a coalition to contain china that includes Japan/Taiwan/Australia/South Korea etc who are all dependent on global seaways and energy imports.

And until the US decouples from China for manufacturing, I also dont see us abandoning the sealanes of allowing a return to state sponsored piracy.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:01:29 AM EDT
[#5]
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Originally Posted By Kagetora:

Maybe they'll invest heavily in a failing Russia so they can own that too. They don't seem to be as...short-sighted.
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Originally Posted By Kagetora:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By SheltiePimp:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have?  Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet


China.


China won't seriously back Russia. Russia just fucked their Taiwan plans.

Eta. China also won't waste their resources on a losing proposition in Europe.

Maybe they'll invest heavily in a failing Russia so they can own that too. They don't seem to be as...short-sighted.


What does Russia have they need?
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:01:51 AM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By skid2041:



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.
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Yes and their mascot is a cartoon frog

KEK
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:11:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Kagetora] [#7]
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have they need?
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By Kagetora:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By SheltiePimp:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have?  Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet


China.


China won't seriously back Russia. Russia just fucked their Taiwan plans.

Eta. China also won't waste their resources on a losing proposition in Europe.

Maybe they'll invest heavily in a failing Russia so they can own that too. They don't seem to be as...short-sighted.


What does Russia have they need?

Farmland?

I'm not an expert. Just spitballing.

Related to nothing, my family is actually from Ukraine. Well, not exactly. They're from "South Russia," Germans who moved there after Catherine the Great murdered her husband and took over the Empire. All four of my great great grandparents got out just before shit went south, in 1899, 1900, 1902, and 1904 respectively. All came to North Dakota to farm and make babies. Their grandkids went back to Europe to fight Nazis in WWII.

It's my understanding that Ukraine is pretty much a bread basket. China would benefit from owning large swatch of arable land, even by proxy, and importing the foodstuff very cheaply. Especially if they weren't the one's responsible for controlling the uppity population.

Anyway, just an idea as to why China might decide to own large swaths of Russia in the guise of "helping them out." Not to mention oil, mineral extraction, etc.

ETA: My maternal side of the family, in regards to the "related to nothing" bit. My Dad's side is all from Norway/Sweden.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:14:10 AM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:16:15 AM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By elcope:


Natural resources.
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Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have they need?


Natural resources.

Put more succinctly by my fellow Montanan. Thanks, elcope. We should have another beer one of these days.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:16:15 AM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By x248716x:

better inspect those tires carefully.
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Originally Posted By x248716x:
Originally Posted By Chokey:


better inspect those tires carefully.
I doubt they will get anything "Modern" either.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:18:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BlueSetter] [#11]
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Originally Posted By JTF2:
Not going to get into other than to say your the one that needs to put the crack pipe down... you know the citizens up in Ottawa were PISSED at the convoy, that the convoy leader Tamara Lich is a right winger western provinces separatist nutter, that businesses in downtown Ottawa were shut down for weeks,  that the 1970's War Measures Act resulted from FLQ terrorist act in Quebec... you also know that the vast majority of Canadians were against the convoy etc etc.  Keep voting for the PPL whacko's and their high water vote mark of 6%.  Oh, and btw, I did not vote for Trudeau but anybody that wants to cast Canada as less than a very democratic nation of the free is going to hear it from me.

DONE.... This AR15 owning PROUD CANADIAN is moving on [meaning back to the Ukraine conflict thread].
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Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:18:17 AM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By KELBEAST:


Yes and their mascot is a cartoon frog

KEK
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Originally Posted By KELBEAST:
Originally Posted By skid2041:



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.


Yes and their mascot is a cartoon frog

KEK



Thanks... I just wanted some info. Don't really care about the stupid stuff.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:23:21 AM EDT
[#13]
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Originally Posted By skid2041:



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.
View Quote

They aren’t. It’s been covered extensively here about 2 dozen times so far. Initially has some Nazi types amongst their ranks but were weeded out. What they are is a far right ultra nationalist group. Nothing wrong with that given the scope of what they are up against.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:23:25 AM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
Fuck
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
Originally Posted By Tboy:
Sirens going off now.
Fuck


Sirens in Kviv? They're not nuke ones, are they?
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:27:05 AM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By Brok3n:

Canadian RHINOs.. a rare breed in these parts of GD
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Originally Posted By Brok3n:
Originally Posted By JTF2:
Not going to get into other than to say your the one that needs to put the crack pipe down... you know the citizens up in Ottawa were PISSED at the convoy, that the convoy leader Tamara Lich is a right winger western provinces separatist nutter, that businesses in downtown Ottawa were shut down for weeks,  that the 1970's War Measures Act resulted from FLQ terrorist act in Quebec... you also know that the vast majority of Canadians were against the convoy etc etc.  Keep voting for the PPL whacko's and their high water vote mark of 6%.  Oh, and btw, I did not vote for Trudeau but anybody that wants to cast Canada as less than a very democratic nation of the free is going to hear it from me.

DONE.... This AR15 owning PROUD CANADIAN is moving on.

Canadian RHINOs.. a rare breed in these parts of GD


Targettarget retread?
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:29:06 AM EDT
[#16]
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Originally Posted By dillydilly:

They aren’t. It’s been covered extensively here about 2 dozen times so far. Initially has some Nazi types amongst their ranks but were weeded out. What they are is a far right ultra nationalist group. Nothing wrong with that given the scope of what they are up against.
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Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By skid2041:



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.

They aren’t. It’s been covered extensively here about 2 dozen times so far. Initially has some Nazi types amongst their ranks but were weeded out. What they are is a far right ultra nationalist group. Nothing wrong with that given the scope of what they are up against.



Thank you. That is what I thought. I just wanted someone to guide me to where the info is. I have been trying to follow the thread but it goes fast. I don't trust the narrative and figured the worst it was some jagoffs in the group. Thank you.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:31:17 AM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have?  Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By Durka-Durka:
Originally Posted By sq40:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
@Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan?  He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it.  We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now.  He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data.  He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed.  He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC.  His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube.  His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning.

He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU

Well worth the 30 min to watch.

Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there.

"We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now."

That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.


I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions.


Which begs the question: What happens if they stop?  Does the world just go back to normal?  Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again?

Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine.

I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE."

As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat.


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have?  Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet


All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries.

Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:32:22 AM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By USMCTanker:


MacArthur was a better general officer than Truman (the former NYARNG FA Officer who was “elected” to be a battery commander) was president.  General MacArthur wanted to leverage our superior military technology and combat power against an adversary to win a major conflict.  

What an amazing concept…

No wonder he is so maligned in American history classes.
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Missouri not New York.

Dougout Doug passed the Chinese red line, got his ass kicked and wanted to kill millions of people to recover from that. I will never understand where his reputation comes from.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:35:54 AM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By stone-age:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

"Recent polling data provides the clearest indication of Russian popular support for the war in Ukraine. In the days following the February 24 invasion, Putin's personal approval rating actually rose to multi-year highs. According to state pollster VTsIOM, his rating jumped six percent in the week ending February 27 to reach 70%. Fellow polling agency FOM recorded a seven percent increase over the same period, bringing approval of Putin to 71%.

Ordinary Russians have been queuing up to publicly endorse the war effort. The "Z" branding used by Russian troops in Ukraine is becoming increasingly ubiquitous across the country as a shorthand symbol of support, while a rapidly expanding list of public figures and professional collectives have released statements backing the invasion. For example, the heads of 250 Russian universities published an official address by the Union of Russian Rectors on March 4 justifying the war and calling on Russians to rally around Putin."
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I don't trust our own polls. I certainly don't trust their polls. It's still probably higher than it should be, but I doubt it's 71%
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:41:52 AM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By skid2041:



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.
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Originally Posted By skid2041:
Originally Posted By Dracster:
Azov getting resupplied in Mariupol

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-03-11_14-25-43_jpg-2310386.JPG



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.



they have death camps and everything, gas chambers, holocaust 2.0 its just aweful....

we have nazis here in america too.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:51:12 AM EDT
[#21]
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:



they have death camps and everything, gas chambers, holocaust 2.0 its just aweful....

we have nazis here in america too.
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Originally Posted By AROKIE:
Originally Posted By skid2041:
Originally Posted By Dracster:
Azov getting resupplied in Mariupol

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/photo_2022-03-11_14-25-43_jpg-2310386.JPG



So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis.



they have death camps and everything, gas chambers, holocaust 2.0 its just aweful....

we have nazis here in america too.



Listen... I am just trying to get info. I don't belive they are nazis. I want so.e info to counter propaganda I keep getting. Fuck me. I apologize for asking a question.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:56:11 AM EDT
[#22]
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Originally Posted By elcope:


Natural resources.
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Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have they need?


Natural resources.


Agreed. But they can get those by not acting beyond empty words and moral support.

No risk in that approach for them.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:59:37 AM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries.

Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By Durka-Durka:
Originally Posted By sq40:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
@Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan?  He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it.  We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now.  He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data.  He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed.  He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC.  His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube.  His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning.

He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU

Well worth the 30 min to watch.

Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there.

"We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now."

That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.


I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions.


Which begs the question: What happens if they stop?  Does the world just go back to normal?  Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again?

Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine.

I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE."

As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat.


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have?  Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet


All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries.

Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in.


Whatever comes in just won't be enough, and their weapon sales are going to drop significantly which won't help them. I suspect gas will be rapidly replaced by Europe as fast as they can too. Russia is boned.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 2:59:52 AM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Looks like the encirclement of Kyiv is getting close. What happens when Kyiv falls?
View Quote


Have you read anything that makes you think so? The Russians seem to have reorganized for another push and I'm sure they'll gain some ground but they don't seem to be capable of the organization and logistics to support a deep penetration. I'm thinking they'll have to grind it out leaning heavily on rocket and conventional artillery. Honestly this is what I figured they would do from the start and was kinda surprised they tried all that half assed fancy pants shit.

Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:04:38 AM EDT
[#25]
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:


Agreed. But they can get those by not acting beyond empty words and moral support.

No risk in that approach for them.
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Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have they need?


Natural resources.


Agreed. But they can get those by not acting beyond empty words and moral support.

No risk in that approach for them.
When that was tried the USA moved in and staged a couple, overthrew the democratically elected government,  installed a puppet regime and began using the country like a piggy bank.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:04:53 AM EDT
[Last Edit: odiedodi] [#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By skid2041:



Listen... I am just trying to get info. I don't belive they are nazis. I want so.e info to counter propaganda I keep getting. Fuck me. I apologize for asking a question.
View Quote
The unbiased answer is kind of. Real Nazis are a product of one particular country in the 1940s, and unless a modern fascist group follows their ideology straight down the line, I wouldn't dub them Nazis. I don't think it's unfair to call them ultranationalists, and they've used Nazi symbols in the past. Beyond that, you're only going to get wildly different takes from the pro/anti-Russia crowds here. I don't really care about them, personally. I do think it's hypocritical to treat them like a boogeyman, when Putin's also basically an ultranationalist fascist.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:08:50 AM EDT
[#27]
So, are gen Z the new cold warriors?

Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:08:57 AM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By atavistic:

PPV. $49.95, plus tax.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By atavistic:
Originally Posted By Javak:
Originally Posted By voodochild:
I wonder if Zelinsky has reached out to Eric Prince yet. Sort of a Black Water part 2.

Blackwater vs Wagner Group?

PPV. $49.95, plus tax.

Make that the undercard to the Zelensky/Klitschko vs. Putin/Seagal Tag Team Single Combat Main Event.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:11:12 AM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By elcope:


Natural resources.
View Quote


Or a proxy war. I don't think Xi has decided what to do and is waiting to see how things go. I do think China and India will attempt to prop Russia up at least in the short term just to keep their options open. I can't imagine that the idea of the Russians and the west beating the shit out of each other in Ukraine doesn't appeal to Xi. I'm not as clear on what India's motivations are. At the end of the day Russia and the west both need China's industrial capacity so Xi will buy resources from and sell rubber dog shit to whoever wins.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:18:04 AM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By peacematu:


Sirens in Kviv? They're not nuke ones, are they?
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Lviv
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:18:28 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By stone-age:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

"Recent polling data provides the clearest indication of Russian popular support for the war in Ukraine. In the days following the February 24 invasion, Putin’s personal approval rating actually rose to multi-year highs. According to state pollster VTsIOM, his rating jumped six percent in the week ending February 27 to reach 70%. Fellow polling agency FOM recorded a seven percent increase over the same period, bringing approval of Putin to 71%.

Ordinary Russians have been queuing up to publicly endorse the war effort. The “Z” branding used by Russian troops in Ukraine is becoming increasingly ubiquitous across the country as a shorthand symbol of support, while a rapidly expanding list of public figures and professional collectives have released statements backing the invasion. For example, the heads of 250 Russian universities published an official address by the Union of Russian Rectors on March 4 justifying the war and calling on Russians to rally around Putin."
View Quote



As I said 400 pages ago, we don't trust polls here, we're going to trust Russian ones?
People are told to publicly endorse the war...err... special military operation or go to jail, and we're going to take this as widespread support?
I don't trust the polls- even the one posted a couple hundred pages ago showing the exact opposite of yours. Why?
Because if you speak out you go to jail. Sort of makes meaningful polls difficult.

I get it. It's easy to hate the Russian people right now.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:21:39 AM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SheltiePimp:


China.
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Originally Posted By SheltiePimp:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically?


China.

And nukes.

Very much like N. Korea.

How North Korea Makes Money?

"In reality, nuclear war threats are not hurled because North Korea plans on global domination. Instead, it is simply a means for the country to stay afloat in a global climate that is extremely hostile towards it. In fact, if North Korea dismantles its nuclear weapons, it risks losing all relevance in the international community."
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:23:14 AM EDT
[#33]
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:24:35 AM EDT
[#34]
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:28:29 AM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By harrjd:
I don’t really like him but I do think he’s right in this statement


"Insufficient reaction of the world community to the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 led to the current Russian aggression against Ukraine," - Turkish President Erdogan

"If the whole West and the whole world had raised their voice against the invasion of Crimea in 2014, would we be faced with today's picture?"
View Quote

Biden's demonstrated weakness with the Afghanistan pullout certainly didn't help, and then his comment about "minor incursions".

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:29:00 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:

Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine.

I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE."

As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat.
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Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By Durka-Durka:
Originally Posted By sq40:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
@Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan?  He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it.  We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now.  He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data.  He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed.  He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC.  His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube.  His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning.

He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU

Well worth the 30 min to watch.

Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there.

"We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now."

That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.


I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions.


Which begs the question: What happens if they stop?  Does the world just go back to normal?  Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again?

Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine.

I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE."

As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat.




I just got done watching his Ft. Benning presentation. Jesus.

Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War | Maneuver Center of Excellence


It's an hour but worth it.


Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:31:06 AM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Alex9661:


Not necessarily. Most Ukrainians think that Trump was Putin's agent or, at least, buddy, and Brandon is a capable leader of the free world who won the election fair and square.
Questioning the 2020 election results or, for example, efficiency of Covid vaccines is a sure sign of mental illness to them. Of course, they may change their point of view but there is no guarantee.
View Quote

Dunno which Ukrainians you know or speak to but the ones that came here since the fall of the USSR are not like that. How do I know? I’m one of them and can corroborate this with hundreds of others like me.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:31:39 AM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By elcope:


Agreed, let me know when you come up.
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Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By Kagetora:

Put more succinctly by my fellow Montanan. Thanks, elcope. We should have another beer one of these days.


Agreed, let me know when you come up.

Actually, I was up in Kalispell today. $40 of gas to go to lunch and a movie with a buddy. I made it worth my while by going to several store and spending hundreds of dollars on shit my folks and I needed. So, there's that.

I'll be at the gun show on the 25th, probably all day. Some of my retired co-workers have a few tables, I'll probably leech off them, then my retired boss wants me to come over for steaks and to help him assemble a lower.

PM me if you're heading to the show. Be good to chat again.

And, to keep this on-topic,

FUCK RUSSIA. FIGHT ON UKRAINE!
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:34:44 AM EDT
[#39]
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:54:58 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By elcope:



Agreed, that's what the Zeihan interview video pointed out as well.

China's being pragmatic.
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Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By GreenMushroom:


Or a proxy war. I don't think Xi has decided what to do and is waiting to see how things go. I do think China and India will attempt to prop Russia up at least in the short term just to keep their options open. I can't imagine that the idea of the Russians and the west beating the shit out of each other in Ukraine doesn't appeal to Xi. I'm not as clear on what India's motivations are. At the end of the day Russia and the west both need China's industrial capacity so Xi will buy resources from and sell rubber dog shit to whoever wins.



Agreed, that's what the Zeihan interview video pointed out as well.

China's being pragmatic.

China was smart enough to wait and see what happened to Russia when they got stupid. They probably aren't interested in having the same things happen to them economically over the flyspeck that is Taiwan. They can bide their time, and eventually have them anyway, probably through absorption after we're exhausted worrying about them. The long game. China plays it.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:58:30 AM EDT
[#41]
“2 dead
Caucasians/Kadyrovtsy”

Kadyrovtsy appears to be Chechen from a quick search.


Odessa shores?

Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 3:58:32 AM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By NIevo:

retread?
View Quote


Now wouldn’t that just be the icing to top off 2022 thus far.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:11:23 AM EDT
[#43]
Drone footage of the Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade artillery strikes on Russian targets (Music onwards from 0:57)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tcbkuq/drone_footage_of_the_ukrainian_128th_mountain/
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:13:30 AM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By dillydilly:

Dunno which Ukrainians you know or speak to but the ones that came here since the fall of the USSR are not like that. How do I know? I’m one of them and can corroborate this with hundreds of others like me.
View Quote


The Ukrainians I've talked with over the years were mostly Trump supporters.  They weren't sure about Biden but I never have met one that is Pro Biden and now everyone is too busy saying "FUCK PUTIN" to discuss their thoughts.  Many were convinced that the US would be their savior so after the initial shock are learning that they need to start relying more on themselves.  Many are doing an amazing job, others are disgusting, but I have strong feelings.  The attitude has definitely shifted here.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:18:33 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By elcope:



Agreed, that's what the Zeihan interview video pointed out as well.

China's being pragmatic.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By GreenMushroom:


Or a proxy war. I don't think Xi has decided what to do and is waiting to see how things go. I do think China and India will attempt to prop Russia up at least in the short term just to keep their options open. I can't imagine that the idea of the Russians and the west beating the shit out of each other in Ukraine doesn't appeal to Xi. I'm not as clear on what India's motivations are. At the end of the day Russia and the west both need China's industrial capacity so Xi will buy resources from and sell rubber dog shit to whoever wins.



Agreed, that's what the Zeihan interview video pointed out as well.

China's being pragmatic.

And India needs Russia to keep China off balance... but if China ends up owning or truly allying with Russia, that is super bad for India
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:18:58 AM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Kagetora:

China was smart enough to wait and see what happened to Russia when they got stupid. They probably aren't interested in having the same things happen to them economically over the flyspeck that is Taiwan. They can bide their time, and eventually have them anyway, probably through absorption after we're exhausted worrying about them. The long game. China plays it.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Kagetora:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By GreenMushroom:


Or a proxy war. I don't think Xi has decided what to do and is waiting to see how things go. I do think China and India will attempt to prop Russia up at least in the short term just to keep their options open. I can't imagine that the idea of the Russians and the west beating the shit out of each other in Ukraine doesn't appeal to Xi. I'm not as clear on what India's motivations are. At the end of the day Russia and the west both need China's industrial capacity so Xi will buy resources from and sell rubber dog shit to whoever wins.



Agreed, that's what the Zeihan interview video pointed out as well.

China's being pragmatic.

China was smart enough to wait and see what happened to Russia when they got stupid. They probably aren't interested in having the same things happen to them economically over the flyspeck that is Taiwan. They can bide their time, and eventually have them anyway, probably through absorption after we're exhausted worrying about them. The long game. China plays it.


If Zeihan is right,  China may not be able to wait long. Their demographics are messed up. The coming years will be very interesting, sadly.

Those presentations were eye opening in a way I had not expected. Not sure he is wrong either, which is frightening.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:32:38 AM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By hondaciv:
Drone footage of the Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade artillery strikes on Russian targets (Music onwards from 0:57)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tcbkuq/drone_footage_of_the_ukrainian_128th_mountain/
View Quote



nice!
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:46:30 AM EDT
[#48]
Fox News was just showing satellite images of Russia's heavy artillery all the way around kyiv 4 miles out. They were saying there is a lot of shelling and combat fighting going on in the suburbs around kyiv.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:48:22 AM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TheLurker:


Whatever comes in just won't be enough, and their weapon sales are going to drop significantly which won't help them. I suspect gas will be rapidly replaced by Europe as fast as they can too. Russia is boned.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By TheLurker:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By Durka-Durka:
Originally Posted By sq40:
Originally Posted By FrankyRay:
Originally Posted By elcope:
Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
@Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan?  He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it.  We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now.  He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data.  He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed.  He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC.  His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube.  His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning.

He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU

Well worth the 30 min to watch.

Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there.

"We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now."

That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.


I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions.


Which begs the question: What happens if they stop?  Does the world just go back to normal?  Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again?

Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine.

I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE."

As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat.


What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have?  Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet


All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries.

Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in.


Whatever comes in just won't be enough, and their weapon sales are going to drop significantly which won't help them. I suspect gas will be rapidly replaced by Europe as fast as they can too. Russia is boned.


It will be years before Europe can energy transition away from Russia. (can't assemble a LNG terminal or alternate pipeline on short notice.)

India gets ~65% of more of its weapons from Russia - another thing that can't be easily switched over.

Their economy is badly reduced but they will still have income coming in; Iran hasn't collapsed under similar sanctions, and Russia has frankly better markets and materials than Iran.

I suspect they will end up a 'Super Iran' and client/vassal state of China.
Link Posted: 3/12/2022 4:54:15 AM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By HuntingForFun:
Fox News was just showing satellite images of Russia's heavy artillery all the way around kyiv 4 miles out. They were saying there is a lot of shelling and combat fighting going on in the suburbs around kyiv.
View Quote


I imagine the images that will come out of Kyiv the next few days will be horrible.
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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 1022 of 5591)
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