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Posted: 3/12/2022 4:59:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: TheLurker]
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: It will be years before Europe can energy transition away from Russia. (can't assemble a LNG terminal or alternate pipeline on short notice.) India gets ~65% of more of its weapons from Russia - another thing that can't be easily switched over. Their economy is badly reduced but they will still have income coming in; Iran hasn't collapsed under similar sanctions, and Russia has frankly better markets and materials than Iran. I suspect they will end up a 'Super Iran' and client/vassal state of China. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.  I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Whatever comes in just won't be enough, and their weapon sales are going to drop significantly which won't help them. I suspect gas will be rapidly replaced by Europe as fast as they can too. Russia is boned. It will be years before Europe can energy transition away from Russia. (can't assemble a LNG terminal or alternate pipeline on short notice.) India gets ~65% of more of its weapons from Russia - another thing that can't be easily switched over. Their economy is badly reduced but they will still have income coming in; Iran hasn't collapsed under similar sanctions, and Russia has frankly better markets and materials than Iran. I suspect they will end up a 'Super Iran' and client/vassal state of China. We shall see. I'd think India will be second guessing their dependence on Russian arms about now, and if current momentum in Europe about getting away from energy dependence on Russia is maintained, things may look very different in a year or so (assuming no ww3 kicks off). |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:06:43 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: We shall see. I'd think India will be second guessing their dependence on Russian arms about now, and if current momentum in Europe about getting away from energy dependence on Russia is maintained, things may look very different in a year or so (assuming no ww3 kicks off). Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Whatever comes in just won't be enough, and their weapon sales are going to drop significantly which won't help them. I suspect gas will be rapidly replaced by Europe as fast as they can too. Russia is boned. It will be years before Europe can energy transition away from Russia. (can't assemble a LNG terminal or alternate pipeline on short notice.) India gets ~65% of more of its weapons from Russia - another thing that can't be easily switched over. Their economy is badly reduced but they will still have income coming in; Iran hasn't collapsed under similar sanctions, and Russia has frankly better markets and materials than Iran. I suspect they will end up a 'Super Iran' and client/vassal state of China. We shall see. I'd think India will be second guessing their dependence on Russian arms about now, and if current momentum in Europe about getting away from energy dependence on Russia is maintained, things may look very different in a year or so (assuming no ww3 kicks off). In a year or so Russia will have won or lost its objectives in Ukraine. The ecconomics are going to fuck them hard, especially longer term, but I dont think its going to impact them millitarilly soon enough to make a difference for Ukraine. |
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NZL
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:11:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: TheLurker]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: In a year or so Russia will have won or lost its objectives in Ukraine. The ecconomics are going to fuck them hard, especially longer term, but I dont think its going to impact them millitarilly soon enough to make a difference for Ukraine. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Whatever comes in just won't be enough, and their weapon sales are going to drop significantly which won't help them. I suspect gas will be rapidly replaced by Europe as fast as they can too. Russia is boned. It will be years before Europe can energy transition away from Russia. (can't assemble a LNG terminal or alternate pipeline on short notice.) India gets ~65% of more of its weapons from Russia - another thing that can't be easily switched over. Their economy is badly reduced but they will still have income coming in; Iran hasn't collapsed under similar sanctions, and Russia has frankly better markets and materials than Iran. I suspect they will end up a 'Super Iran' and client/vassal state of China. We shall see. I'd think India will be second guessing their dependence on Russian arms about now, and if current momentum in Europe about getting away from energy dependence on Russia is maintained, things may look very different in a year or so (assuming no ww3 kicks off). In a year or so Russia will have won or lost its objectives in Ukraine. The ecconomics are going to fuck them hard, especially longer term, but I dont think its going to impact them millitarilly soon enough to make a difference for Ukraine. Agreed. From the looks of things, sadly Ukraine will be the sacrifice Europe and the West is willing to make to buy themselves time. Unless something miraculous or truly awful happens.  ETA. If I was Poland or the Baltics, I'd be looking to ramp up a clandestine nuclear program pronto, because Western Europe will happily sacrifice them too. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:21:20 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: Agreed. From the looks of things, sadly Ukraine will be the sacrifice Europe and the West is willing to make to buy themselves time. Unless something miraculous or truly awful happens. ETA. If I was Poland or the Baltics, I'd be looking to ramp up a clandestine nuclear program pronto, because Western Europe will happily sacrifice them too. Another thing the Zeihan video pointed out; NATO's current winning strategy in the short term is to give every man & strong lad in Ukraine an anti-tank rocket, buff them on the tops of their head and cheer "go gettem Tiger" to give NATO time to re-arm and strategic breathing space. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:26:14 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kagetora: China was smart enough to wait and see what happened to Russia when they got stupid. They probably aren't interested in having the same things happen to them economically over the flyspeck that is Taiwan. They can bide their time, and eventually have them anyway, probably through absorption after we're exhausted worrying about them. The long game. China plays it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kagetora: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By GreenMushroom: Or a proxy war. I don't think Xi has decided what to do and is waiting to see how things go. I do think China and India will attempt to prop Russia up at least in the short term just to keep their options open. I can't imagine that the idea of the Russians and the west beating the shit out of each other in Ukraine doesn't appeal to Xi. I'm not as clear on what India's motivations are. At the end of the day Russia and the west both need China's industrial capacity so Xi will buy resources from and sell rubber dog shit to whoever wins. Agreed, that's what the Zeihan interview video pointed out as well. China's being pragmatic. China was smart enough to wait and see what happened to Russia when they got stupid. They probably aren't interested in having the same things happen to them economically over the flyspeck that is Taiwan. They can bide their time, and eventually have them anyway, probably through absorption after we're exhausted worrying about them. The long game. China plays it. That shit is so cliche, and not really even true. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:33:35 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Their NG exports are intact FOR NOW. Id expect those pipelines to looking like a bay area PG&E mishap x1000 if or when Russia has taken military control of UKR and the hardcore insurgency/sabotage fighting ramps up They cant sell to India if they can neither build nor cash checks for military Exports to China may be moot if they cant even maintain a workforce to export shit. I also question what countries want to buy when they are seeing how poorly it works by the builders of it. |
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PA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:39:06 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: ETA. If I was Poland or the Baltics, I'd be looking to ramp up a clandestine nuclear program pronto, because Western Europe will happily sacrifice them too. Based on what we've seen, that's the smart move for just about every country on the planet. It's hard to believe that the unintended consequences that are going to come from this...are really unintended. |
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NZL
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:41:22 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By elcope: Another thing the Zeihan video pointed out; NATO's current winning strategy in the short term is to give every man & strong lad in Ukraine an anti-tank rocket, buff them on the tops of their head and cheer "go gettem Tiger" to give NATO time to re-arm and strategic breathing space. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Agreed. From the looks of things, sadly Ukraine will be the sacrifice Europe and the West is willing to make to buy themselves time. Unless something miraculous or truly awful happens. ETA. If I was Poland or the Baltics, I'd be looking to ramp up a clandestine nuclear program pronto, because Western Europe will happily sacrifice them too. Another thing the Zeihan video pointed out; NATO's current winning strategy in the short term is to give every man & strong lad in Ukraine an anti-tank rocket, buff them on the tops of their head and cheer "go gettem Tiger" to give NATO time to re-arm and strategic breathing space. Yes. A prolonged fight and then an ongoing insurgency seems to be what is pretty much baked in at this point to bog Russia down. The penny dropped for me then about why Europe was being so strange about what they would or wouldn't send in terms of arms. It's quite carefully calculated to bleed Russia as much as possible by sacrificing the Ukrainians. The other thing that surprised me is that both Russia and China effectively collapse under their own demographics in the next few decades. It's now our never for both in terms of key strategic objectives. |
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NZL
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:46:01 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: Based on what we've seen, that's the smart move for just about every country on the planet. It's hard to believe that the unintended consequences that are going to come from this...are really unintended. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: Originally Posted By TheLurker: ETA. If I was Poland or the Baltics, I'd be looking to ramp up a clandestine nuclear program pronto, because Western Europe will happily sacrifice them too. Based on what we've seen, that's the smart move for just about every country on the planet. It's hard to believe that the unintended consequences that are going to come from this...are really unintended. I agree. But a lot of countries, like mine will just bury their heads in the sand until it's too late. Bloody annoying since we even have a delivery system that could reach out and touch people 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:46:43 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SilverBearX: He is full of shit. The nicest thing Bannon has ever said about Russia was that China was a bigger threat to the US than Russia. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SilverBearX: Originally Posted By mancow: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By voodochild: Originally Posted By Javak: Originally Posted By voodochild: I wonder if Zelinsky has reached out to Eric Prince yet. Sort of a Black Water part 2. Blackwater vs Wagner Group? I'd wager big on BlackWater. Wagner is all fur coat and no trousers. They got decimated in Syria. Prince was on Steve Bannon’s show joining him in praise of Putin’s Russia 🤷🏻♂️ /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/EgcB5I3-51.gif He is full of shit. The nicest thing Bannon has ever said about Russia was that China was a bigger threat to the US than Russia. I’m full of shit? OK…this is a deep fake video.
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Posted: 3/12/2022 5:56:10 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MattyCR: Their NG exports are intact FOR NOW. Id expect those pipelines to looking like a bay area PG&E mishap x1000 if or when Russia has taken military control of UKR and the hardcore insurgency/sabotage fighting ramps up NATO doesn't really give a fuck about the freedom of the Ukrainian people, they have crystal clear self interests here that you can not allow propaganda to cloud. This kind of fuckery has happened many times before and it will happen again. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:10:26 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JTF2: It's called the Charter of Rights and Freedoms for starters... and the invoking of the Emergencies Act had the support of the vast majority of the Canadian population... and only came after 3 weeks of patience had run out, which included the louts closing down major border trade bridges to the point where automobile production lines had to shut down on both sides of the border, businesses had been closed down for weeks in downtown Ottawa and air horns were sounding around the clock while people were trying to sleep etc. You should use google to review how the VAST majority of the citizens living in Ottawa felt about the convoy. Over 90% of the truckers were against it too. On another note, you clearly don't have a clue about how close the USA and Canada have been and continues to be as well and likely aren't old enough to remember what Canada did in 1979 when the U.S. embassy in Tehran fell or on 9/11 when the USA closed it's air space to all incoming commercial air traffic, including all American jets. If Canada hadn't taken them ALL in despite not knowing the true situation on board each of them, they would have been landing in the Atlantic. oh and btw, Canada most definitely has been stepping up in many different ways to help the Ukrainians and will continue to do so.
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:13:16 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By torstin: Based on what we've seen, that's the smart move for just about every country on the planet. It's hard to believe that the unintended consequences that are going to come from this...are really unintended. This is old news. There's a reason Iran and NK have been trying forever to obtain working nukes. The situation in Ukraine is simply making it obvious that the utility of nukes applies to everyone. Of course, the counterpoint of that is that they're far more likely to used once everyone has them. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:20:53 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bigstick61: The militia should definitely be separate from civilian law enforcement, especially since the latter today tends to fill some of the roles the "standing army" of a tyrannical government back in the day would have. I think revived militias could be done well if State governments had the will to do so, or local governments or groups if State governments were willing to grant charters (a few chartered militia units like that still exist in New England). Without uniformity, training, doctrines, officers, discipline, organization, etc., armed groups are just armed rabble with limited capacity for effectiveness. Lack of anything more than small arms is problematic, too, but better than nothing. The Swiss during the Cold War era probably did the militia the best out of anyone. ... and then the Cold War ended and the EU and Schengen Open Borders came along and the Swiss voters decided open borders was more important than their gun rights. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:35:58 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv: 100% totally emphatically disagree. Russian boomers, sure. Not normal Russians, especially those 30 or younger who have never experienced Soviet-style communism or doctrine. These people have lived their entire life 100% exposed to the west and western news and culture. Really? Now say that about millenials too. Who knows what they were exposed to there? |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:36:57 AM EDT
[#16]
Big boom, would be lots of casualties
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NM, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:37:36 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tboy: Lviv Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tboy: Originally Posted By peacematu: Sirens in Kviv? They're not nuke ones, are they? Lviv Thanks and take care, sir. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:41:33 AM EDT
[#18]
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 6:43:57 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 7empest: I do really wonder how many would blow in their tubes. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 7empest: Originally Posted By TripleC: I bet their nukes are fucking slim to none. I do really wonder how many would blow in their tubes. and how many are missing... |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:05:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: lycurgus]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By skid2041: So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis. How about asking what the deal is with the Sparta Battalion in the Donbass separatist area? Or any other of the battalions/brigades formed from the separatists in Donbass? You have any problem with these Donabass Separatists flying the Hammer and Sickle flag? Do you have any problem with these Donbass Separatists promoting the rehabilitation of Stalin? Because you'll see plenty of Stalin portraits in the separatist Donbass region. How about Marx and Lenin? Do you like those guys? Sure seems like it as I don't see any Westerners decrying the adulation of these (Stalin, Lenin) mass murder champions of the 20th Century... |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:05:59 AM EDT
[#21]
Italy impounds Sailing Yacht A
World largest pleasure sailboad. Ill give 'em $87 for it.   |
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:06:41 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: I’m full of shit? OK…this is a deep fake video.
Lol they were joking and that's not the full context. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:09:18 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Stretchman: Really? Now say that about millenials too. Who knows what they were exposed to there? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Stretchman: Originally Posted By hondaciv: 100% totally emphatically disagree. Russian boomers, sure. Not normal Russians, especially those 30 or younger who have never experienced Soviet-style communism or doctrine. These people have lived their entire life 100% exposed to the west and western news and culture. Really? Now say that about millenials too. Who knows what they were exposed to there? This “they’ve seen the West” thinking is flawed because it is leaving something out: yes,young Russians have been able to eat at McDonald’s,shop at Uniqlo,look at Instagram…BUT they have also been raised in a school system that promotes nationalism and have a media that presents Russia as a victim,something that has been only increasingly and now exclusively the case. The organization was dismantled and restructured but read up about Naschi or watch a documentary called Putin’s Kiss or look at the Young Russians doing this . to understand that a great many have been entirely brainwashed to support totalitarian. Meanwhile,a fair of apolitical younger Russians are doing things like posting to Telegram or Insta crying,literally,that the sanctions are horrible because they won’t have any Lipton tea or McDonald’s anymore because they don’t really grasp why the sanctions are in place. Putin isn’t being blamed and the Russian military isn’t being blamed. They are enablers even if they don’t understand it. The only parallel I can make is this: there are a tremendous number of Muslims who adore KFC,they think it’s the greatest food ever. They love wearing Nike shoes and owning an iPhone and all that but does having a bucket of chicken and a pair of Jordans mean they have anti-Islamist tendencies? Hardly. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:10:34 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/ "Recent polling data provides the clearest indication of Russian popular support for the war in Ukraine. In the days following the February 24 invasion, Putin's personal approval rating actually rose to multi-year highs. According to state pollster VTsIOM, his rating jumped six percent in the week ending February 27 to reach 70%. Fellow polling agency FOM recorded a seven percent increase over the same period, bringing approval of Putin to 71%. Ordinary Russians have been queuing up to publicly endorse the war effort. The "Z" branding used by Russian troops in Ukraine is becoming increasingly ubiquitous across the country as a shorthand symbol of support, while a rapidly expanding list of public figures and professional collectives have released statements backing the invasion. For example, the heads of 250 Russian universities published an official address by the Union of Russian Rectors on March 4 justifying the war and calling on Russians to rally around Putin." Why would Russia sign into law something that bans any news agency or individual from speaking out against the war unless Russian state television is painting a narrative. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:21:44 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: This “they’ve seen the West” thinking is flawed because it is leaving something out: yes,young Russians have been able to eat at McDonald’s,shop at Uniqlo,look at Instagram…BUT they have also been raised in a school system that promotes nationalism and have a media that presents Russia as a victim,something that has been only increasingly and now exclusively the case. The organization was dismantled and restructured but read up about Naschi or watch a documentary called Putin’s Kiss or look at the Young Russians doing this . to understand that a great many have been entirely brainwashed to support totalitarian. Meanwhile,a fair of apolitical younger Russians are doing things like posting to Telegram or Insta crying,literally,that the sanctions are horrible because they won’t have any Lipton tea or McDonald’s anymore because they don’t really grasp why the sanctions are in place. Putin isn’t being blamed and the Russian military isn’t being blamed. They are enablers even if they don’t understand it. The only parallel I can make is this: there are a tremendous number of Muslims who adore KFC,they think it’s the greatest food ever. They love wearing Nike shoes and owning an iPhone and all that but does having a bucket of chicken and a pair of Jordans mean they have anti-Islamist tendencies? Hardly. I wonder when the Putin Youth Brigades will start forming? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:22:10 AM EDT
[#26]
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NV, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:23:07 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MattyCR: Their NG exports are intact FOR NOW. Id expect those pipelines to looking like a bay area PG&E mishap x1000 if or when Russia has taken military control of UKR and the hardcore insurgency/sabotage fighting ramps up They cant sell to India if they can neither build nor cash checks for military Exports to China may be moot if they cant even maintain a workforce to export shit. I also question what countries want to buy when they are seeing how poorly it works by the builders of it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MattyCR: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Their NG exports are intact FOR NOW. Id expect those pipelines to looking like a bay area PG&E mishap x1000 if or when Russia has taken military control of UKR and the hardcore insurgency/sabotage fighting ramps up They cant sell to India if they can neither build nor cash checks for military Exports to China may be moot if they cant even maintain a workforce to export shit. I also question what countries want to buy when they are seeing how poorly it works by the builders of it. Russia can still be paid; many of their banks are not under sanction, and even then there are workarounds. Iran and North Korea - far less capable and resource rich countries then Russia - are still able to generate money and build military equipment. https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/2/28/iran-russia-and-the-limits-of-financial-war In terms of Russian equipment not working; eh. We're seeing a lot of poorly maintained shit break down, and we're seeing that a whole shitload of Russias military budget has likely been straight up stolen, which paired with poor morale has hollowed out their forces. But the weapons themselves seem to be working fine. The ballistic and cruise missiles for example are hitting their targets and fucking shit up. The MLRS is working plenty well. Small arms obviously work. Hellicopters and Jets seem to work fine, just rather bizzarely employed (using jets at low alitude manpad range, for example.) Their tanks and BMPs are being blown up left and right...but I suspect US/NATO/Chinese tanks would also be rapidly destroyed by Javelins as well. The only weapon that really seems to be shitting the bed is their air defense assets against the TB2 drones. A country like India looking to achieve a 'strategic independence' from China or the US has pretty limited other options for foreign weapon sales. Russia is the clear leader there, with countries like Israel and possibly South Korea being alternatives for some systems. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:31:54 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Yeah, I know. I get it. But I am about done believing this is all about the government and not the people, when the people are wearing Z on their clothing and painting Z on their cars in support of the military that attacked an innocent foreign nation and is murdering unarmed civilians. Not to mention all of the talk about how important the russian genetic line is. maybe it's one way to make sure you don't get arrested? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:34:56 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv:
Lol no you won't. The only thug you'll touch is trucks inside ukr. But go ahead. Do it, faggot. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:35:27 AM EDT
[Last Edit: cwm1150]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: “2 dead Caucasians/Kadyrovtsy” Kadyrovtsy appears to be Chechen from a quick search. Odessa shores? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/539199/F5D1D1D0-3FDD-471D-B8A1-C78BC38A13DA_png-2310419.JPG Looks like one guy has a mosin nagant  Never mind its an over and under shotgun. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:39:44 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryOriginally Posted By norseman1: Originally Posted By atavistic: I've been hearing about this can of Kiev whoopass Putin is going to open for the past week. Did they leave the can opener in Moscow? /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/5ddc336bfd9db244c913783d-460.gif |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:40:45 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: Lol no you won't. The only thug you'll touch is trucks inside ukr. But go ahead. Do it, faggot. Or, you could mobilize all the Syrian sleepers that infiltrated into Germany and other NATO countries to Allahu Ackbar mil convoys and depots. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:41:54 AM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:43:08 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv:
Good that I know they are doing their job and hurting........for years to come if necessary. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:46:35 AM EDT
[#35]
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:46:59 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By skid2041: So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Ukraine-Before-the-invasion-there-was-this/5-2537315/ Some of the backstory. They themselves deny6 being Nazi, and claim they are Ukrainian nationalists. Should sound somewhat familiar to us, especially since Putin stated that he was there to denazify the country. So, for what it's worth, I guess they're about as Nazi as your average Trump supporter. We all know how the summer of love went. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:47:20 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lycurgus: How about asking what the deal is with the Sparta Battalion in the Donbass separatist area? Or any other of the battalions/brigades formed from the separatists in Donbass? You have any problem with these Donabass Separatists flying the Hammer and Sickle flag? Do you have any problem with these Donbass Separatists promoting the rehabilitation of Stalin? Because you'll see plenty of Stalin portraits in the separatist Donbass region. How about Marx and Lenin? Do you like those guys? Sure seems like it as I don't see any Westerners decrying the adulation of these (Stalin, Lenin) mass murder champions of the 20th Century... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lycurgus: Originally Posted By skid2041: So, what is the deal with the Azov Battalion? Is there a primer of them? I keep hearing they are nazis. How about asking what the deal is with the Sparta Battalion in the Donbass separatist area? Or any other of the battalions/brigades formed from the separatists in Donbass? You have any problem with these Donabass Separatists flying the Hammer and Sickle flag? Do you have any problem with these Donbass Separatists promoting the rehabilitation of Stalin? Because you'll see plenty of Stalin portraits in the separatist Donbass region. How about Marx and Lenin? Do you like those guys? Sure seems like it as I don't see any Westerners decrying the adulation of these (Stalin, Lenin) mass murder champions of the 20th Century... Jesus Christ, he's just asking a question. Do you know the answer or not? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:47:25 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By elcope: Or, you could mobilize all the Syrian sleepers that infiltrated into Germany and other NATO countries to Allahu Ackbar mil convoys and depots. Interesting angle. How many Russian assets are still in Syria for the destroying? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:50:13 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/ "Recent polling data provides the clearest indication of Russian popular support for the war in Ukraine. In the days following the February 24 invasion, Putin’s personal approval rating actually rose to multi-year highs. According to state pollster VTsIOM, his rating jumped six percent in the week ending February 27 to reach 70%. Fellow polling agency FOM recorded a seven percent increase over the same period, bringing approval of Putin to 71%. Ordinary Russians have been queuing up to publicly endorse the war effort. The “Z” branding used by Russian troops in Ukraine is becoming increasingly ubiquitous across the country as a shorthand symbol of support, while a rapidly expanding list of public figures and professional collectives have released statements backing the invasion. For example, the heads of 250 Russian universities published an official address by the Union of Russian Rectors on March 4 justifying the war and calling on Russians to rally around Putin." About as believable as the polls that showed Hillary winning in a landslide. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:54:00 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv:
Thats damn good shooting. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:54:23 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryWhat makes those guys Spetsnaz and not VDV? Also be careful with that channel. They got kicked off twitter for spewing literal Russian propaganda. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:56:07 AM EDT
[#42]
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KY, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 7:57:27 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv:
Then Belarus is a legitimate military target |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:02:07 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wyorock: Then Belarus is a legitimate military target It's been one. A half dozen tomahawks on that base where all the helos and supplies are would make a nice reprise. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:07:40 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: And we flew a pair of BUFF's around, whoop tee do. Wasting fuel, stroking egos and getting flight time on the log, chest thumping posturing. When I see some F-35's chasing Migs or providing CAS to the UKR's then I'll feel like we are making a difference. In the mean time the Russians are laughing at us & NATO while slaying civilians and laying waste to a country. May all the fucks in the world be upon Putin. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
I've also spotted U-2 flights popping up briefly flying out some places very nearby The ISR flights have been going on in similar fashion for weeks, mostly w/ ads-b info and sometimes not. The refueling activity was similar. The CAP and other actions at work aren’t really showing up from what I’ve gathered. The strike stuff (-52s) has been interesting. The amount of lift activity is tremendous and far broader than the most recent AFG debacle. The Russians haven’t been able to send nearly as many aircraft out for action and in many cases have had to operate on the RF or Belarus side given the highly contested non-permissive environment. Weather has been an issue too. Lots of degraded ground combat capability with a ~20% loss of forces fielded so far (~13 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) destroyed in the field and another ~20 - 22 BTGs rendered non-mission capable). Continuing to grind like this comes at a heavy price, even for Russia. It seems like there’s a balance the Biden admin are tryin’ to work to let Putin fail in the field/back home at the rodina w/out drawing an escalation/spillover or rushing us into the next big world war disasterpiece. It’s shit math. The Biden admin is fucking stuck acting as predictable technocratic putzes, secure in their smugness, underestimating the enemy every time we turn around, and just plain old lacks the testicular conviction needed to put Putin’s ass in the dirt. They don’t appear to understand Putin enough to beat him, let alone doing it quickly or decisively. Putin doesn’t appear to be compelled to stop at UKR and is only self-limited and constrained by his military’s capabilities at this point. He’ll need to make a big play to change the situation on the ground. Has to drive UKR/the west off-balance to claim his prize or cut bait. He’s committed to the action and needs to escalate deliberately w/ massive force to ‘win’ sooner. They are going to have to keep their fiscal and social situation in-check across the motherland. The longer it goes the hard it becomes to win for Putin and Russia. Not sure that Putin is acting rationally and we may look back at early moments when the butcher’s bill would have been far, far lower and wonder why more decisive action wasn’t taken sooner. Won’t be surprised if something CBRN goes down in the slightest. At the least he is going to smash cities, kill people, and grind UKR forces It seems like it will take decisive force to make Putin stop, to reassert geopolitical stability, reaffirm western primacy. If this gets really fucked up then the world is gonna get it hard and dry by China before we know it. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:08:25 AM EDT
[#46]
That is portable!
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:09:47 AM EDT
[#47]
Is there a list of casualties out somewhere..?
Before I was married, I had a very lovely Ukrainian girlfriend who was attending the University of Chicago and we had a nice summer the year I got out of the military. We drank and partied like the young couple we were. We fell in love and she got pregnant... Having no family in Chicago she wanted to move back to Kiev to be by her mother. I was devastated, she wanted me to move and even though I wanted to go, I just couldn't. She ended up having a miscarriage in Ukraine and we promised to reunite but alas, never did. We are Friends on Facebook but she hasn't posted since the end of February and before this she was posting often. My wife knows about her and understands my grief. I'm hoping she is okay, her parents have money but very old European stubborn. I'm picturing my old love running around Ukraine blasting ruskies in the face..!! She was a spitfire in Chicago... |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:10:04 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv:
 FLASHBACK: Trump Warned UN About Dependence On Russian Oil |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:13:14 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By elcope: Another thing the Zeihan video pointed out; NATO's current winning strategy in the short term is to give every man & strong lad in Ukraine an anti-tank rocket, buff them on the tops of their head and cheer "go gettem Tiger" to give NATO time to re-arm and strategic breathing space. Yeah, that is probably true. Of course, we were assured by the Russians that they had no plans of invasion, and they were simply supporting the breakaway republics from the 'aggression' of the Ukrainian nationalists. If a substantial group of people from Mexico entered Texas, and then decided that they'd rather be a part of Mexico, would we have a problem with that? Because that's what the breakaway republics pretty much did to Ukraine. They then, countless times, proved themselves to be the aggressor, downing civilian jet liners, shelling Ukraine, and flying bombing sorties over Ukraine. All of this long before the war ever started. Or, military action, or whatever they call it. The Russians were corrupt and heavily involved in criminal activity in Ukraine, like some giant cartel. Ukraine got tired of it, and overthrew the government, then installed a government in Ukraine that was pro Ukraine. The Russians had a problem with that, and so, started tearing off chunks of the country for themselves, using a 'once upon a time' excuse. NATO was wholly unprepared for this, since Ukraine wasn't really on anyone's radar in the EU, and the issue is that out of all of the members in NATO, the only people who would have actively supported Ukraine in their efforts would have been us. For some odd reason, we kind of understand the frustration of those people who keep being accused of being Nazis and aren't really allowed to defend themselves from those accusations without punitive measures. I'm sure they had their share of 'Not my President' people in the breakaways and Crimea. Sucks that most of us republicans follow the rules and respect election results, even when we don't agree with them. I am guessing that Biden is also pro Ukraine, in, fact, I would guess that a lot of people are. But those same people would burn down government buildings and shopping malls in this country for 'reasons'. Oh well. America is, for lack of a better explanation, different. The only real comparison to us is us. NATO should have been better prepared for this. They knew it was coming, years ago. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 8:14:26 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By hondaciv: That is portable!
It even as the shoulder thing that goes UP! Needs to make the turret thing go up |
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