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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:42:59 AM EDT
[#1]
https://theplanespotter.herokuapp.com/post/-Mxy4SH-Z9ZoCH37qrbe
So Russia is seizing planes…except those owned by oligarchs that have Israeli citizenship https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/at-least-14-private-jets-from-russia-have-landed-in-israel-in-the-past-10-days-amid-the-latest-round-of-sanctions-targeting-oligarchs/ar-AAUYU4J |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:44:09 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:44:58 AM EDT
[#3]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:45:19 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: At this point what does the golden bridge look like? Putin has to be able to save face. FWIW, I still believe that this invasion happened because there was no way for him to back off without losing face. I think he wanted to make Crimea official, along with the Donbass region, but the west and Ukraine offered resistance that he hadn't planned for. He likely thought that he would have gotten what he wanted purely through intimidation. "The mighty Russian military has terrified the Ukrainian Nazis and liberated our ethnic Russian brothers without ever firing a shot" would have made him a hero at home, with no military losses to explain and no exposure of his military's actual capability. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By Nailcrusher: Originally Posted By HIPPO: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Russia said that ships carrying weapons to Ukraine would be considered legitimate military targets. I assume this is a ploy to try to get merchant ships scared to sail,I can't see them being stupid enough to do something like trying to sink a freighter in the North Sea or Med they came to the conclusion was carrying weapons. Every day that passes without a Russian flag over Kyiv the greater the chances Putin behaves even more irrationally so I honestly wouldn't discount the possibility of anything,including something to provoke NATO. Agree. Putin is painting himself into a coffin corner w/o someone giving him a big fucking off ramp. And that's what makes this situation so dangerous to the world. Cornering a powerful, desperate man might cause him to do unthinkable things. At this point what does the golden bridge look like? Putin has to be able to save face. FWIW, I still believe that this invasion happened because there was no way for him to back off without losing face. I think he wanted to make Crimea official, along with the Donbass region, but the west and Ukraine offered resistance that he hadn't planned for. He likely thought that he would have gotten what he wanted purely through intimidation. "The mighty Russian military has terrified the Ukrainian Nazis and liberated our ethnic Russian brothers without ever firing a shot" would have made him a hero at home, with no military losses to explain and no exposure of his military's actual capability. I can agree with that. Now this has reached a point where it’s become less likely for Putin to be hailed as that national hero. And that’s the question that needs answering. Even if he was to “defeat” Ukraine, the resulting insurgency would drag on forever. How long is Russia prepared to suffer that slow bleed? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:46:55 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Holy cow. Mind = blown. The stuff around 44 minutes was super enlightening. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By Cobradriver: I just got done watching his Ft. Benning presentation. Jesus.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMcIt's an hour but worth it. Holy cow. Mind = blown. The stuff around 44 minutes was super enlightening. It is definitely worth the time to watch. |
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ISR
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:47:23 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Missouri not New York. Dougout Doug passed the Chinese red line, got his ass kicked and wanted to kill millions of people to recover from that. I will never understand where his reputation comes from. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By USMCTanker: MacArthur was a better general officer than Truman (the former NYARNG FA Officer who was “elected” to be a battery commander) was president. General MacArthur wanted to leverage our superior military technology and combat power against an adversary to win a major conflict. What an amazing concept… No wonder he is so maligned in American history classes. Missouri not New York. Dougout Doug passed the Chinese red line, got his ass kicked and wanted to kill millions of people to recover from that. I will never understand where his reputation comes from. Yea Elcope already corrected me. I was thinking NY for some reason, even though my dad's side of the family are all from "Missourah" and talked about Truman being from their beloved state when I was growing up. Macarthur's reputation comes from at least his overwhelming success turning the Korean War around from one defeat after another from June to September 1950, to driving the North Koreans damn near all the way up to the Yalu after Inchon (an operation everyone told him couldn't be done). You could blame him for a lack of readiness in June, but the post-WWII Army was hollowed out and there wasn't much he could do about the lack of combat power available to him in Japan when the war broke out in June. Looking back, we could have used atomic weapons in Manchuria to end the war without significant risk to our own or UN forces and there wasn't a damn thing China or the USSR could have done about it other than bleed; neither of those two countries had the ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons in the winter of 1950-1951. It would have set a precedent with our communist adversaries for decades. Now North Korea has ICBMs, does have or will have SLBMs, China has a credible strategic nuclear capability that's probably greater than they admit to, and Russia is threatening the west with a nuclear response if we oppose Putin's illegal, immoral, and barbaric invasion of a sovereign nation that stood by us during GWOT, and is threatening to do the same to our NATO allies in the region. When will we learn? War is too important to be left to the politicians. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:47:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BerettaGuy]
[#7]
 Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training On Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:48:11 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Holy cow. Mind = blown. The stuff around 44 minutes was super enlightening. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Originally Posted By Cobradriver: I just got done watching his Ft. Benning presentation. Jesus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMcIt's an hour but worth it. Holy cow. Mind = blown. The stuff around 44 minutes was super enlightening. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:49:01 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nickmemphis: Macarthur got his reputation early on and he kept it by mostly having it, so the reputation became more valuable than what the reputation was supposedly for. It's kind of a cult of personality version of too big to fail. IMO. From the chairborne historian regiment. Chairborne here also, but wasn't he sort of "born" with a reputation because of his father or grandfather, a MOH winner ? That and his stellar record at West Point. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:52:52 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: I know what an Antonov 26 is. While there is some similarity in configuration and they can have either jump seats or passenger seats,Q400s and ATRs don't have cargo ramps: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/F9A7B61D-1A1E-4A86-BA55-7CB56B52AE5F_jpe-2310633.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By 74HC: It's a twin engine turbo prop with seats. Much like those small regional airlines we have. I know what an Antonov 26 is. While there is some similarity in configuration and they can have either jump seats or passenger seats,Q400s and ATRs don't have cargo ramps: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/F9A7B61D-1A1E-4A86-BA55-7CB56B52AE5F_jpe-2310633.JPG Airport is too small for NATO transport aircraft, and I've never seen them fly in there in the past. Looks like it was a fighter airbase back in the days, and now a small passenger terminal on the south west side of the field. The bunkers for the fighters are still there, but look to be in poor, unmaintained shape. So these three planes are flying people. If it was transport of military gear, it would be in another airport. Also, giving Poland's desire to want Ukrainian pilots to fly those MIGs out of their airspace, I doubt they would give permission for mUkrainian transport planes to fly this deep into Polish air space. This is near the German border. Probably was once part of Germany at one time. |
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ISR
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:53:32 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Landsat8: Pot heads gonna pot head His own country is being invaded and his countrymen along with women and children are being killed, and all he can think of is which country he can run away to so he can smoke weed legally. Useless human beings. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:54:39 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: India already terminated a joint fighter aircraft development with Russia. Given how poorly Russian gear seems to be performing against western weaponry, India is likely to start shopping elsewhere. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By MattyCR: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days.  I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Their NG exports are intact FOR NOW. Id expect those pipelines to looking like a bay area PG&E mishap x1000 if or when Russia has taken military control of UKR and the hardcore insurgency/sabotage fighting ramps up They cant sell to India if they can neither build nor cash checks for military Exports to China may be moot if they cant even maintain a workforce to export shit. I also question what countries want to buy when they are seeing how poorly it works by the builders of it. Russia can still be paid; many of their banks are not under sanction, and even then there are workarounds. Iran and North Korea - far less capable and resource rich countries then Russia - are still able to generate money and build military equipment. https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/2/28/iran-russia-and-the-limits-of-financial-war In terms of Russian equipment not working; eh. We're seeing a lot of poorly maintained shit break down, and we're seeing that a whole shitload of Russias military budget has likely been straight up stolen, which paired with poor morale has hollowed out their forces. But the weapons themselves seem to be working fine. The ballistic and cruise missiles for example are hitting their targets and fucking shit up. The MLRS is working plenty well. Small arms obviously work. Hellicopters and Jets seem to work fine, just rather bizzarely employed (using jets at low alitude manpad range, for example.) Their tanks and BMPs are being blown up left and right...but I suspect US/NATO/Chinese tanks would also be rapidly destroyed by Javelins as well. The only weapon that really seems to be shitting the bed is their air defense assets against the TB2 drones. A country like India looking to achieve a 'strategic independence' from China or the US has pretty limited other options for foreign weapon sales. Russia is the clear leader there, with countries like Israel and possibly South Korea being alternatives for some systems. India already terminated a joint fighter aircraft development with Russia. Given how poorly Russian gear seems to be performing against western weaponry, India is likely to start shopping elsewhere. Didn’t India back out of that deal once already? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:55:19 AM EDT
[#13]
Do they have an escape hatch on the bottom?
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AL, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 11:56:40 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By agillig: Jesus said when you pray, you shouldn't make a big show of it. I guess she missed that part. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By agillig: Originally Posted By outofbattery: For those that don't know,Schrder is the German who sold his country's soul for Russian oil and gas. He is the definition of a paid off stooge. The only worse politician I can think of in terms of taking totalitarian money for more detriment is Kissinger. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/19FA06D1-BA20-4583-AB29-40CC7D597A3F_jpe-2310480.JPG Matthew 6:5-6 And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full. But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:00:59 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By x248716x: i'm wondering why the russian forces in Belarus haven't moved south into western Ukraine to try to throttle that resupply. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By x248716x: Originally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By hondaciv:
Ah, yes, the yappy small dog approach to foreign relations. Hey Vlad, your crack troops are getting their asses handed to them by western weaponry. If you could have cut off the supply, you would have already. STFU and take your losses. i'm wondering why the russian forces in Belarus haven't moved south into western Ukraine to try to throttle that resupply. Either they haven't been told to or they're afraid to. If you were in Belarus, well fed and warm, would you be chomping at the bit to go run headlong into getting creamed? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:04:57 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Balu: Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Balu: Originally Posted By agillig: Originally Posted By outofbattery: For those that don't know,Schrder is the German who sold his country's soul for Russian oil and gas. He is the definition of a paid off stooge. The only worse politician I can think of in terms of taking totalitarian money for more detriment is Kissinger. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/19FA06D1-BA20-4583-AB29-40CC7D597A3F_jpe-2310480.JPG Matthew 6:5-6 And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full. But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you.  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:05:22 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: Didn’t India back out of that deal once already? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Parabellum08: Originally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By MattyCR: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. What does Russia have left that can keep them afloat economically? Oil? That's dead and about 20 years from restarting. Wheat? No one will insure anyone to ship it. What else do they have? Russia is already dead, they just don't know it yet All of their Nat Gas exports to europe are still intact. As are their exports to China. They also still have decent weapon sales to India and other countries. Their economy is taking a massive hit but its incorrect to say they have no money coming in. Their NG exports are intact FOR NOW. Id expect those pipelines to looking like a bay area PG&E mishap x1000 if or when Russia has taken military control of UKR and the hardcore insurgency/sabotage fighting ramps up They cant sell to India if they can neither build nor cash checks for military Exports to China may be moot if they cant even maintain a workforce to export shit. I also question what countries want to buy when they are seeing how poorly it works by the builders of it. Russia can still be paid; many of their banks are not under sanction, and even then there are workarounds. Iran and North Korea - far less capable and resource rich countries then Russia - are still able to generate money and build military equipment. https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/2/28/iran-russia-and-the-limits-of-financial-war In terms of Russian equipment not working; eh. We're seeing a lot of poorly maintained shit break down, and we're seeing that a whole shitload of Russias military budget has likely been straight up stolen, which paired with poor morale has hollowed out their forces. But the weapons themselves seem to be working fine. The ballistic and cruise missiles for example are hitting their targets and fucking shit up. The MLRS is working plenty well. Small arms obviously work. Hellicopters and Jets seem to work fine, just rather bizzarely employed (using jets at low alitude manpad range, for example.) Their tanks and BMPs are being blown up left and right...but I suspect US/NATO/Chinese tanks would also be rapidly destroyed by Javelins as well. The only weapon that really seems to be shitting the bed is their air defense assets against the TB2 drones. A country like India looking to achieve a 'strategic independence' from China or the US has pretty limited other options for foreign weapon sales. Russia is the clear leader there, with countries like Israel and possibly South Korea being alternatives for some systems. India already terminated a joint fighter aircraft development with Russia. Given how poorly Russian gear seems to be performing against western weaponry, India is likely to start shopping elsewhere. Didn’t India back out of that deal once already? I got the impression that India kept putting up more and more money and got little to no progress in return. They finally terminated the agreement when it was obvious the Russians were just taking the money and had no intention of following thru. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:05:45 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Either they haven't been told to or they're afraid to. If you were in Belarus, well fed and warm, would you be chomping at the bit to go run headlong into getting creamed? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By x248716x: Originally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By hondaciv:
Ah, yes, the yappy small dog approach to foreign relations. Hey Vlad, your crack troops are getting their asses handed to them by western weaponry. If you could have cut off the supply, you would have already. STFU and take your losses. i'm wondering why the russian forces in Belarus haven't moved south into western Ukraine to try to throttle that resupply. Either they haven't been told to or they're afraid to. If you were in Belarus, well fed and warm, would you be chomping at the bit to go run headlong into getting creamed? Putin has to keep enough forces in Belarus to put down a coup against Lukašenko if necessary and act as a blocking force against Poland. It would be interesting to know how clued in they are to situation in Ukraine. In other not news news  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:07:35 PM EDT
[Last Edit: juan223]
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: Putin has to keep enough forces in Belarus to put down a coup against Lukašenko if necessary and act as a blocking force against Poland. It would be interesting to know how clued in they are to situation in Ukraine. In other not news news https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/0489F86B-3038-45CC-AA7E-82951B44C1C2_jpe-2310666.JPG Maybe Putin's Syrian mercs will be dropping chlorine barrel bombs? 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:08:14 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: Putin has to be made to sit the fuck down and ultimately be removed from power. The off ramp has to be mixed with an equal measure of overwhelming force and resolve so the west proves that it cannot be blackmailed by his threats of strategic forces, nuclear fallout, other cbrn hostilities, and further imperialist actions against Europe. It can’t be resolved and settled without that, including the complete handover of Crimea, independence of Donbas, and sea change in UKR governance and alliances, etc. If it is, then this is just the set-up for a subsequent and much larger war. The west should do everything it can to remove Putin and beat the Russian army in the field. That remains to be seen so far. The west is afraid to take decisive direct action because they think Putin has the means and mindset to follow through on his threats. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: Originally Posted By Nailcrusher: Originally Posted By HIPPO: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Russia said that ships carrying weapons to Ukraine would be considered legitimate military targets. I assume this is a ploy to try to get merchant ships scared to sail,I can’t see them being stupid enough to do something like trying to sink a freighter in the North Sea or Med they came to the conclusion was carrying weapons. Every day that passes without a Russian flag over Kyiv the greater the chances Putin behaves even more irrationally so I honestly wouldn’t discount the possibility of anything,including something to provoke NATO. Agree. Putin is painting himself into a coffin corner w/o someone giving him a big fucking off ramp. And that’s what makes this situation so dangerous to the world. Cornering a powerful, desperate man might cause him to do unthinkable things. Putin has to be made to sit the fuck down and ultimately be removed from power. The off ramp has to be mixed with an equal measure of overwhelming force and resolve so the west proves that it cannot be blackmailed by his threats of strategic forces, nuclear fallout, other cbrn hostilities, and further imperialist actions against Europe. It can’t be resolved and settled without that, including the complete handover of Crimea, independence of Donbas, and sea change in UKR governance and alliances, etc. If it is, then this is just the set-up for a subsequent and much larger war. The west should do everything it can to remove Putin and beat the Russian army in the field. That remains to be seen so far. The west is afraid to take decisive direct action because they think Putin has the means and mindset to follow through on his threats. Best case solution is someone inside Russia popping his ass in the head. I’m sure we have people working on influencing that. It’s also probably and partially why we see him purging high ranking military and intelligence people. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:08:25 PM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:10:46 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Dang. That’s was good. Everyone should watch that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By Cobradriver: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By Durka-Durka: Originally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad: @Zhukov Have you read any Peter Zeihan? He's spent the past decade writing a series of books and making many, many presentations about the history of the Global Order (America Police guaranteeing free trade, aka Globalism), why it's folding up shop, and how there'd be a wildfire of regional wars and enormous power shifts following it. We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now. He's a demographic/geographic determinist who backs up his theories with reams of data. He's not always right on the micro level but I think he's got the broad outline nailed. He's got a higher opinion of the Russian military than I can currently credit them, I guess we'll see about that. And he didn't predict the instant global cancellation of the Russia economy IIRC. His books are interesting and there's a thousand videos of his presentations on Youtube. His opinion has been rapidly becoming more mainstream, he just gave a presentation at Fort Benning. He recently freaked out this professional financial news reporter about four times in half an hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YUWell worth the 30 min to watch. Yes, it is. Some very thought provoking stuff in there. "We are living in the post America Police/smoldering wildfires are igniting/power is shifting fast stage right now." That actually makes a lot of sense and explains the global craziness we are seeing. Hell, America doesn't even want police on it's own streets these days. I heard him on an interview last night. He said Russia has 4-8 weeks left to end this conflict or Russia will completely collapse because of sanctions. Which begs the question: What happens if they stop? Does the world just go back to normal? Will the world end up trying to compensate to make russia stable again? Putin isn't going to stop. He wants to crush Ukraine. I think this whole World-Gangs-Up-On-Big-Bad-Leader frenzy may have put something in motion that no one really knows what to do with. As Peter says in that video, "The sanctions surprised EVERYONE." As far as Russia collapsing in 4-8 weeks... I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull some kind of diabolical rabbit out of a hat that lets them stay afloat. I just got done watching his Ft. Benning presentation. Jesus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMcIt's an hour but worth it. Dang. That’s was good. Everyone should watch that. Absolutely! |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:11:48 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nailcrusher: I can agree with that. Now this has reached a point where it's become less likely for Putin to be hailed as that national hero. And that's the question that needs answering. Even if he was to "defeat" Ukraine, the resulting insurgency would drag on forever. How long is Russia prepared to suffer that slow bleed? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nailcrusher: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By Nailcrusher: Originally Posted By HIPPO: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Russia said that ships carrying weapons to Ukraine would be considered legitimate military targets. I assume this is a ploy to try to get merchant ships scared to sail,I can't see them being stupid enough to do something like trying to sink a freighter in the North Sea or Med they came to the conclusion was carrying weapons. Every day that passes without a Russian flag over Kyiv the greater the chances Putin behaves even more irrationally so I honestly wouldn't discount the possibility of anything,including something to provoke NATO. Agree. Putin is painting himself into a coffin corner w/o someone giving him a big fucking off ramp. And that's what makes this situation so dangerous to the world. Cornering a powerful, desperate man might cause him to do unthinkable things. At this point what does the golden bridge look like? Putin has to be able to save face. FWIW, I still believe that this invasion happened because there was no way for him to back off without losing face. I think he wanted to make Crimea official, along with the Donbass region, but the west and Ukraine offered resistance that he hadn't planned for. He likely thought that he would have gotten what he wanted purely through intimidation. "The mighty Russian military has terrified the Ukrainian Nazis and liberated our ethnic Russian brothers without ever firing a shot" would have made him a hero at home, with no military losses to explain and no exposure of his military's actual capability. I can agree with that. Now this has reached a point where it's become less likely for Putin to be hailed as that national hero. And that's the question that needs answering. Even if he was to "defeat" Ukraine, the resulting insurgency would drag on forever. How long is Russia prepared to suffer that slow bleed? I don't know. Probably longer than we'd like to think. I can't think of an off ramp for Putin that the west and Ukraine could tolerate, unless Ukraine decides they can live with admitting to the loss of Crimea and Donbass. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:11:51 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: Putin has to keep enough forces in Belarus to put down a coup against Lukašenko if necessary and act as a blocking force against Poland. It would be interesting to know how clued in they are to situation in Ukraine. In other not news news https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/0489F86B-3038-45CC-AA7E-82951B44C1C2_jpe-2310666.JPG I think Poland could roll Russia as it is. I wonder how many troops Russia withholds to deal with poland? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:12:43 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/177432/Kirill_Putin_Ridus_ru__jpg-2310665.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: Originally Posted By Balu: Originally Posted By agillig: Originally Posted By outofbattery: For those that don't know,Schrder is the German who sold his country's soul for Russian oil and gas. He is the definition of a paid off stooge. The only worse politician I can think of in terms of taking totalitarian money for more detriment is Kissinger. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/19FA06D1-BA20-4583-AB29-40CC7D597A3F_jpe-2310480.JPG Matthew 6:5-6 And when you pray, do not be like the hypocrites, for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and on the street corners to be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have received their reward in full. But when you pray, go into your room, close the door and pray to your Father, who is unseen. Then your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you. As official Atheists, the Soviets suppressed the Russian Orthos until they realized they couldn't eliminate it forever. So at some point they made sure every bishop and every higher official was KGB. Krill became a Bishop in 76. So we can safely assume he was a KGB agent. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:13:46 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: Putin has to keep enough forces in Belarus to put down a coup against Lukaenko if necessary and act as a blocking force against Poland. It would be interesting to know how clued in they are to situation in Ukraine. In other not news news https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/0489F86B-3038-45CC-AA7E-82951B44C1C2_jpe-2310666.JPG It's always important to remember that these messages are not really for foreign consumption but for control of their own population. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:14:24 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
Good. I hope he remembers that any attack on nato and nato property will result in a military response... |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:14:45 PM EDT
[Last Edit: SoCalExile]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By outofbattery: Putin has to keep enough forces in Belarus to put down a coup against Lukaenko if necessary and act as a blocking force against Poland. It would be interesting to know how clued in they are to situation in Ukraine. In other not news news https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/0489F86B-3038-45CC-AA7E-82951B44C1C2_jpe-2310666.JPG (That was a joke about Russian POWs) |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:14:46 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: Airport is too small for NATO transport aircraft, and I've never seen them fly in there in the past. Looks like it was a fighter airbase back in the days, and now a small passenger terminal on the south west side of the field. The bunkers for the fighters are still there, but look to be in poor, unmaintained shape. So these three planes are flying people. If it was transport of military gear, it would be in another airport. Also, giving Poland's desire to want Ukrainian pilots to fly those MIGs out of their airspace, I doubt they would give permission for mUkrainian transport planes to fly this deep into Polish air space. This is near the German border. Probably was once part of Germany at one time. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By 74HC: It's a twin engine turbo prop with seats. Much like those small regional airlines we have. I know what an Antonov 26 is. While there is some similarity in configuration and they can have either jump seats or passenger seats,Q400s and ATRs don't have cargo ramps: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/F9A7B61D-1A1E-4A86-BA55-7CB56B52AE5F_jpe-2310633.JPG Airport is too small for NATO transport aircraft, and I've never seen them fly in there in the past. Looks like it was a fighter airbase back in the days, and now a small passenger terminal on the south west side of the field. The bunkers for the fighters are still there, but look to be in poor, unmaintained shape. So these three planes are flying people. If it was transport of military gear, it would be in another airport. Also, giving Poland's desire to want Ukrainian pilots to fly those MIGs out of their airspace, I doubt they would give permission for mUkrainian transport planes to fly this deep into Polish air space. This is near the German border. Probably was once part of Germany at one time. In what world is a 8,200' runway is too small for C-17s, C-130s, and A-400s? Ramp space may be a little tight for a C-17, but C-130s and A-400s would have no problems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bydgoszcz_Ignacy_Jan_Paderewski_Airport |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:18:57 PM EDT
[#30]
WW3 has started. We are in slow burn phase. Heard 16,000 Hezbollah fighters are on the way to fight for Putin. Going to be huge insurgency mess that will last for many years. Russian shelling is only 17 miles away from Poland's border.
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:19:16 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: These guys are having fun:
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:23:32 PM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:23:57 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
They're also the nation of Neville Chamberlain, and lately they're more Chamberlain than Churchill. Still, that's better than the nation of a country hating, pudding connoisseur, and child sniffer that WE have become. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:24:15 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Yobro512: I think Poland could roll Russia as it is. I wonder how many troops Russia withholds to deal with poland? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Yobro512: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Putin has to keep enough forces in Belarus to put down a coup against Lukašenko if necessary and act as a blocking force against Poland. It would be interesting to know how clued in they are to situation in Ukraine. In other not news news https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/0489F86B-3038-45CC-AA7E-82951B44C1C2_jpe-2310666.JPG I think Poland could roll Russia as it is. I wonder how many troops Russia withholds to deal with poland? The Poles really (and I think legitimately) hate Russia, russians, and anything vaguely resembling Lenninists. The only thing preventing them from flushing Russia like a flock of quail is nukes. I would venture a guess that about half the polish people give less than a shit about that either. It sorta puts Polish leadership in a bad spot, and it's one that NATO inherits. >>What's Russia holding in reserve? Nukes. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:24:17 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By USMCTanker: You could blame him for a lack of readiness in June, but the post-WWII Army was hollowed out and there wasn't much he could do about the lack of combat power available to him in Japan when the war broke out in June. I do blame him. When TF Smith went to Korea, one of the problems they had was that their 1919s were too rusty to use. Did MacArthur not have enough motor oil to preserve his weapons? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:25:28 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/177432/Kirill_Putin_Ridus_ru__jpg-2310665.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By M-1975: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/177432/Kirill_Putin_Ridus_ru__jpg-2310665.JPG Despicable what Patriarch Kirill is doing. https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2022/03/09/missing-piece-about-putin-and-ukraine https://www.ncronline.org/news/people/russias-patriarch-kirill-defends-invasion-ukraine-stoking-orthodox-tensions Russia's Patriarch Kirill defends invasion of Ukraine, stoking Orthodox tensions Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, leader of Russia's dominant religious group, has sent his strongest signal yet justifying his country's invasion of Ukraine describing the conflict as part of a struggle against sin and pressure from liberal foreigners to hold "gay parades" as the price of admission to their ranks. Kirill, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, had already refrained from criticizing the Russian invasion alienating many in the Ukrainian Orthodox churches who had previously stayed loyal to the Moscow patriarch during a schism in their country. Several of these former loyalists are now snubbing Kirill in their public prayers, with some demanding independence from the Moscow church even as their country's political independence is imperiled. Kirill, in a sermon delivered March 6 before the start of Orthodox Lent, echoed Putin's unfounded claims that Ukraine was engaged in the "extermination" of Russian loyalists in Donbas, the breakaway eastern region of Ukraine held since 2014 by two Russian-backed separatist groups. Kirill focused virtually all of his talk about the war on Donbas with no mention of Russia's widespread invasion and its bombardment of civilian targets. SNIP |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:28:11 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Russian paratroopers taking control of airfield Video https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/12/13/55266457-10605505-image-a-99_1647092127971.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/12/12/55266455-10605505-image-a-87_1647089708370.jpg Unfortunately, it seems like the Russians are getting their act together. Maybe not totally, but enough to make steady progress towards taking Kiyv. As heroic as the Ukrainian effort has been, I still think it's only a matter of time until the accomplish their goal. The key questions that will have to be answered: At what price, and now what? |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:28:43 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
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ISR
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:31:22 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Do they have an escape hatch on the bottom? https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFNqERoIXIAQR7td.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig Damn...I wonder if it fell off of a trailer on a tight turn during transport and ended up rolling over? I would think the turret would be traversed to the rear if that was the case, but I dunno. Anyway, that's a good question. We had one in the M60 series under the driver's seat. You would hit the locking lever with a hammer to release IIRC. When conducting services we would drop the hatch with a jack under it, and then pass the batteries (located under the turret floor and removed after traversing the turret into a certain position to access them) through the escape hatch instead of lifting them through the loaders' hatch to someone standing on the hull. The Abrams doesn't have any type of hull escape hatch, but batteries are easier to get to as they are located in the rear of the hull where the engine / transmission ("pack") is and easy to access. Google doesn't really get into what Russian tanks have or don't have escape hatches, but it looks like the T-72 has a hull escape hatch under or slightly behind the driver. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:33:04 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By toaster: Holy fuck. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By toaster: Originally Posted By M-1975: These guys are having fun:
 AC/DC - Big Gun (Official HD Video) |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:33:32 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Unfortunately, it seems like the Russians are getting their act together. Maybe not totally, but enough to make steady progress towards taking Kiyv. As heroic as the Ukrainian effort has been, I still think it's only a matter of time until the accomplish their goal. The key questions that will have to be answered: At what price, and now what? It was said this is Putin's professional army coming in, not the first wave conscripts. These are the second tier troops (professional army) that are encircling Kiev. |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:34:01 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: Unfortunately, it seems like the Russians are getting their act together. Maybe not totally, but enough to make steady progress towards taking Kiyv. As heroic as the Ukrainian effort has been, I still think it's only a matter of time until the accomplish their goal. The key questions that will have to be answered: At what price, and now what? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:34:56 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Brok3n: Canadian RHINOs.. a rare breed in these parts of GD  It sure did talk a bunch of bullshit, being simultaneously the "humanitarian" while "I'm for forcing others to take experimental injections against their will, or become financially destitute. AND they'd better not inconvenience me with their cries of injustice of we'll confiscate all their shit, kill their pets and take their children from them! AND there's more of us than them, that's why we're right! OH, and it's great bragging that we can do that with impunity!". ...and people say that they wouldn't be (couldn't be!) a Nazi and do all that fascist stuff. Right. Canada isn't a tyranny where most people think the way that "proud ar-15 owner" does, no sir. Golly. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:35:11 PM EDT
[#44]
Vladimir Putin most certainly has an off ramp. Just declare victory and withdraw to his North Korea II kingdom. His people will not know any better. He is a great liar so the Russian dumbasses will believe it. I know one thing though...... Every Russian on Ukrainian soil must be killed with extreme prejudice !!!
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:35:13 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Russian paratroopers taking control of airfield Video https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/12/13/55266457-10605505-image-a-99_1647092127971.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/12/12/55266455-10605505-image-a-87_1647089708370.jpg This from early on? |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:36:45 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: This from early on? I suspect it's from the first day or so. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:36:53 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By USMCTanker: Damn...I wonder if it fell off of a trailer on a tight turn during transport and ended up rolling over? I would think the turret would be traversed to the rear if that was the case, but I dunno. Anyway, that's a good question. We had one in the M60 series under the driver's seat. You would hit the locking lever with a hammer to release IIRC. When conducting services we would drop the hatch with a jack under it, and then pass the batteries (located under the turret floor and removed after traversing the turret into a certain position to access them) through the escape hatch instead of lifting them through the loaders' hatch to someone standing on the hull. The Abrams doesn't have any type of hull escape hatch, but batteries are easier to get to as they are located in the rear of the hull where the engine / transmission ("pack") is and easy to access. Google doesn't really get into what Russian tanks have or don't have escape hatches, but it looks like the T-72 has a hull escape hatch under or slightly behind the driver. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By USMCTanker: Originally Posted By CS223: Do they have an escape hatch on the bottom? https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFNqERoIXIAQR7td.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig Damn...I wonder if it fell off of a trailer on a tight turn during transport and ended up rolling over? I would think the turret would be traversed to the rear if that was the case, but I dunno. Anyway, that's a good question. We had one in the M60 series under the driver's seat. You would hit the locking lever with a hammer to release IIRC. When conducting services we would drop the hatch with a jack under it, and then pass the batteries (located under the turret floor and removed after traversing the turret into a certain position to access them) through the escape hatch instead of lifting them through the loaders' hatch to someone standing on the hull. The Abrams doesn't have any type of hull escape hatch, but batteries are easier to get to as they are located in the rear of the hull where the engine / transmission ("pack") is and easy to access. Google doesn't really get into what Russian tanks have or don't have escape hatches, but it looks like the T-72 has a hull escape hatch under or slightly behind the driver.  |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:37:45 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: This from early on? Was just posted today. |
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:37:53 PM EDT
[#49]
 
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Posted: 3/12/2022 12:39:35 PM EDT
[#50]
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