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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:25:19 AM EDT
[#1]
I'm not sure Ukraine will ever get mariupol or anything east of Crimea that's been taken (Donbas) back..
That's a shame and not the lesson Russia needs to learn. This hasn't cost Russia nearly as much as it needs to |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:25:48 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: The theory is that Russia cannot resupply because they no longer have the materiel to resupply with. On the other hand, Ukraine can continue to use ATGMs, and have supposedly received some advanced SAMs of some sort that will defeat the cruise missiles (what few Russia has left). Once Ukraine gets more of those and anti-ship missiles, the ability of Russia to prosecute the war goes to near zero. Ukraine has been pushing the Russians back on all fronts including in the east. It's still going to be a long, slow slog to dislodge the Russians and send them packing. The West needs to hurry up and get the advanced weapons and equipment like SAMS, Switchblades and the like to Ukraine. Talk is cheap, lives are not. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By Firefly1032: Originally Posted By planemaker: I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war. I know Ukraine is causing substantial casualties on the Russian but I don’t get the perception that Ukraine is “winning”, certainly not enough to re-capture Crimea or LHR/DHR. Yes they are gaining some ground back but every day they are losing critical equipment and supplies that can’t easily be replaced despite getting small arms from the west. I’m trying to balance where I get info from and it’s abundantly apparent just how much both sides are trying to play the info war right now. I hope you are right but I get the feeling that Russias focus is truly shifting to the east for now and that’s why you are seeing small gains in the north. The theory is that Russia cannot resupply because they no longer have the materiel to resupply with. On the other hand, Ukraine can continue to use ATGMs, and have supposedly received some advanced SAMs of some sort that will defeat the cruise missiles (what few Russia has left). Once Ukraine gets more of those and anti-ship missiles, the ability of Russia to prosecute the war goes to near zero. Ukraine has been pushing the Russians back on all fronts including in the east. It's still going to be a long, slow slog to dislodge the Russians and send them packing. The West needs to hurry up and get the advanced weapons and equipment like SAMS, Switchblades and the like to Ukraine. Talk is cheap, lives are not. The Russians are not flying very many sorties inside Ukraine proper, at least from what I can tell. That suggests a number of possibilities: 1) Ukraine is still a highly non-permissible environment for air ops 2) Russia is unable to maintain operational tempo with it's aircraft 3) They are preserving their aircraft for a possible NATO engagement So, they are largely attacking (through the air) with standoff weapons - scary and damaging, but insufficient to turn the war. Russia invaded Ukraine with 200,000 troops. Ukraine had 500,000. This is not a calculus that favors the attacker. At all. The only scenario where this might be viable is where there is a severe capability mismatch. If there is a capability mismatch here, it doesn't look like it favors the Russians. 200,000 troops cannot secure a hostile country of 40,000,000. If Russia mobilized it's entire military and sends in 1 million+ troops, they might be able to wear Ukraine down. But it's doubtful that Russia could even supply 1 million troops for offensive operations. They are struggling to supply 200,000 troops right now. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:27:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AeroE]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: No I am saying that it has been one of the major planning factors that help detemine the size of the military, and the need to spend billions if not trillions. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Zam18th: Are you really going to tell us that the US made Russia remain an enemy just so that we'd have a theoretical war to plan for? No I am saying that it has been one of the major planning factors that help detemine the size of the military, and the need to spend billions if not trillions. Don't under estimate Russia. Knowing is everything, guessing is nothing. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:27:50 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By rca2222: I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again. That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation. Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn't a debate. Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs. If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility.  You'd have been hard pressed to even find someone in GD who thought the Ukrainians would last more than a week or two. Military strategists, the Pentagon, everybody thought Russia would walk all over Ukraine. The international reaction didn't materialize until days after the invasion. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:32:29 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: Prepare to switch to rubles for natural gas exports by March 31, Vladimir Putin tells Gazprom and Russia's central bank Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the country's biggest gas company and central bank to prepare to start taking rubles for natural gas payments from "unfriendly" countries, saying they should outline their plans by March 31. Putin blindsided traders in the natural gas market last week by announcing Russia would make countries deemed hostile pay for the product in rubles. Russia accounts for around 45% of EU gas imports, with pipeline exports to Europe normally paid for in euros. The President appeared keen to push ahead with the plan on Monday. He ordered Gazprom, the central bank and the government to prepare reports outlining how it will make the switch by Thursday, March 31, according to state news agency Tass. It was not immediately clear whether the switch itself would take place Thursday. Analysts have said Putin is trying to shore up the Russian currency and to make life more complicated for Western countries that have sanctioned Moscow over its war against Ukraine. "At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously free-falling currency in order to pay," Rystad Energy senior analyst Vinicius Romano said last week. "What is clear however, is that this has added another element of uncertainty to the already chaotic European gas market by complicating gas purchases that many countries have been reluctant to cut." The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia of blackmail last week and said the move would be a clear breach of contract. The boss of Italian energy company Eni, Claudio Descalzi, said at a panel in Dubai on Monday that the company would not be paying for gas in rubles. European natural gas prices have soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and pushed higher last week when Putin announced the payment plan. Dutch TTF gas futures, Europe's benchmark price, were up 4.7% Monday to 106 euros per megawatt hour. However, that was below last week's high of around 127 euros and far lower than a price of more than 300 euros hit earlier this month. The ruble was 4.1% higher against the dollar, with $1 changing hands for 98.1 rubles. It has risen relatively sharply since plunging to a low of around 140 rubles to the dollar in early March. --------------------------------------- WWIII, here we come.  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:34:39 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SheltiePimp: Prepare to switch to rubles for natural gas exports by March 31, Vladimir Putin tells Gazprom and Russia's central bank Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the country's biggest gas company and central bank to prepare to start taking rubles for natural gas payments from "unfriendly" countries, saying they should outline their plans by March 31. Putin blindsided traders in the natural gas market last week by announcing Russia would make countries deemed hostile pay for the product in rubles. Russia accounts for around 45% of EU gas imports, with pipeline exports to Europe normally paid for in euros. The President appeared keen to push ahead with the plan on Monday. He ordered Gazprom, the central bank and the government to prepare reports outlining how it will make the switch by Thursday, March 31, according to state news agency Tass. It was not immediately clear whether the switch itself would take place Thursday. Analysts have said Putin is trying to shore up the Russian currency and to make life more complicated for Western countries that have sanctioned Moscow over its war against Ukraine. "At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously free-falling currency in order to pay," Rystad Energy senior analyst Vinicius Romano said last week. "What is clear however, is that this has added another element of uncertainty to the already chaotic European gas market by complicating gas purchases that many countries have been reluctant to cut." The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia of blackmail last week and said the move would be a clear breach of contract. The boss of Italian energy company Eni, Claudio Descalzi, said at a panel in Dubai on Monday that the company would not be paying for gas in rubles. European natural gas prices have soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and pushed higher last week when Putin announced the payment plan. Dutch TTF gas futures, Europe's benchmark price, were up 4.7% Monday to 106 euros per megawatt hour. However, that was below last week's high of around 127 euros and far lower than a price of more than 300 euros hit earlier this month. The ruble was 4.1% higher against the dollar, with $1 changing hands for 98.1 rubles. It has risen relatively sharply since plunging to a low of around 140 rubles to the dollar in early March. --------------------------------------- WWIII, here we come. Everyone already told Russia they aren’t going to pay it as it’s breach of contract. This is several days old. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:35:04 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Drakich]
[#7]
Russia has pulled in South Ossetian units to fight for them in Ukraine.
https://civil.ge/archives/481866 |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:39:08 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BobRoberts]
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AeroE: The next step would be to re-examine what we know about Russia and it's military from top to bottom. Without the personal agendas shot through the Pentagon. The Bias is so ingrained I am not sure its even possible to do that without completely replacing the military and intelligence apparatus personnel and processes. Its 80 years of inertia behind it. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:39:28 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Stretchman]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: I'm not sure Ukraine will ever get mariupol or anything east of Crimea that's been taken (Donbas) back.. That's a shame and not the lesson Russia needs to learn. This hasn't cost Russia nearly as much as it needs to The stuff that was going on in 2015 included Kadyrovs Chechens and Spetznas troops from Russia. The Ukraine military held them off for years until they invaded the rest of Ukraine. Those people being painted as separatists were hard core Russian regular that were being held off by national guard units. This has been going on for 8 years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:42:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: gotigers]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By aeroworksxp: Mariupol Update https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327887/FO7_OMAXsAc87_B_jpg-2329054.JPG Regime change in Ukraine was a huge misdirection. Putin wanted the Azov coastal ports and a land bridge to Crimea. Putin doesn't mind sacrificing 20,000 men and 1000 vehicles to gain hundreds of billions in trade. edit: Same reason he invaded Georgia. Black Sea ports. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:42:25 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Heh... who needs Anonymous? 
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IL, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:43:00 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nightstalker: https://twitter.com/kimdotcom/status/1508009061564166147?s=21&t=Em_YnIAvysTMAXqZ-9cmVg Pretty much what I think is going on  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:44:00 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By belted_guns: My 2cents says fjb does know what he is saying but due to his dementia, lacks the deceit filter normal to lying sacks of shit. Just like his famous fraudulent election statement. He was briefed on it, remembers it, and says same. Stuff bloating out his mouth is all he can remember at the moment. Which is why we frequently see and hear him say, where to stand, who to call on, when to leave, etc. Before his public event, his keepers are briefing him on what,where but his addled mind is not mixing up the lie from the stage. He will get worse and our country will pay for it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By belted_guns: Originally Posted By SuperSixOne: Bidet doesn't even know what he's saying, so I doubt anyone outside the WH takes him serious. It's a really great time to have Jimmy Carter 2.0.  My 2cents says fjb does know what he is saying but due to his dementia, lacks the deceit filter normal to lying sacks of shit. Just like his famous fraudulent election statement. He was briefed on it, remembers it, and says same. Stuff bloating out his mouth is all he can remember at the moment. Which is why we frequently see and hear him say, where to stand, who to call on, when to leave, etc. Before his public event, his keepers are briefing him on what,where but his addled mind is not mixing up the lie from the stage. He will get worse and our country will pay for it. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:44:50 AM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:46:48 AM EDT
[Last Edit: OCW]
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: As someone who just left DoD in a compability development role, his statement is actually somewhat accurate. The Russians were a major planning factor for two of the services way ahead and, and the current conflict has shown those investments probably were not well spent. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By outofbattery: This is beyond idiotic. As someone who just left DoD in a compability development role, his statement is actually somewhat accurate. The Russians were a major planning factor for two of the services way ahead and, and the current conflict has shown those investments probably were not well spent. His insult demonstrates a tremendous amount of naïveté. I was recruited by the DoD out of college in the late ‘80s and Russia was absolutely needed to justify the billions being spent to keep the big money flowing to friends of the program. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:46:54 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? No, it's humor, Francis. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:47:40 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Drakich: Russia has pulled in South Ossetian units to fight for them in Ukraine. https://civil.ge/archives/481866 With the Azebaijanies going after Russian "peace keepers" and many Georgians hating Russia, this could be good for those countries. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:48:06 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: Anyone translate this? Anonymous leaked it. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/008331E4-4711-4552-9543-C2BB6E1D3CA6_jpe-2329167.JPG Translation via Google Lens on phone 
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:48:14 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RattleCanAR: He is joking about the challenges as an American and RHD. Nothing more to it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RattleCanAR: Originally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? He is joking about the challenges as an American and RHD. Nothing more to it. This. RHD and stick is a little awkward at first. I kept knocking my knuckles on the driver's door when I intended to shift the first time I drove one like that. Combined with all of the roundabouts much hilarity ensued. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:48:17 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Uggh, unless the US/NATO somehow put boots on the ground in Ukraine, or Putin 'dies from covid', that peace deal is the single best outcome Ukraine can hope for. Russia is a bunch of brutish, drunken oafs weilding ancient weapons built by commies... but they have an authoritarian regime, 140 million people, and a bottomless stockpile of dumb bombs and artillery. Collectively, Russia can institute a draft, zombie horde this out, taking insane casualties but steadily scouring ukrainian cities from the earth. Every day this war goes on, more of Ukraine is smashed to rubble. Already Mariupol looks like downtown Syria. Once this happens to every city, Ukraine (a poor country pre-invasion) will be effectively destroyed, destined to poverty and misery for decades barring a complete $100+ Billion rebuilding fund from the west. So, by comparison, that peace deal is pretty sweet; its essentially a status quo antebellum, recognizing the facts on the ground that existed pre-invasion. Sucks but thats reality. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Balu: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Eight_Ring: Originally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By Birddog15: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Amazing clip:
And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:
If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia. Am I understanding that correctly? He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history. Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years. The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point. If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose. Period. They are setting the stage for escalation. What other choice do they have? Serious question. Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution: 1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory 2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc) 3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2) Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal. Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen. That's a completely untenable end state for Ukraine. Why would they even consider a "deal" like that? They would be fools to agree to anything less than the restoration of Ukraine's Budapest Accord borders. Uggh, unless the US/NATO somehow put boots on the ground in Ukraine, or Putin 'dies from covid', that peace deal is the single best outcome Ukraine can hope for. Russia is a bunch of brutish, drunken oafs weilding ancient weapons built by commies... but they have an authoritarian regime, 140 million people, and a bottomless stockpile of dumb bombs and artillery. Collectively, Russia can institute a draft, zombie horde this out, taking insane casualties but steadily scouring ukrainian cities from the earth. Every day this war goes on, more of Ukraine is smashed to rubble. Already Mariupol looks like downtown Syria. Once this happens to every city, Ukraine (a poor country pre-invasion) will be effectively destroyed, destined to poverty and misery for decades barring a complete $100+ Billion rebuilding fund from the west. So, by comparison, that peace deal is pretty sweet; its essentially a status quo antebellum, recognizing the facts on the ground that existed pre-invasion. Sucks but thats reality. Russia wants Ukraine. Any peace deal is just kicking the can down the road at best, setting Ukraine up for sabotage and insurrection from Russian infiltration like in the east. |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:49:03 AM EDT
[#21]
How to piss off Iran, step 1:
SDE BOKER, Negev Desert At their historic summit in the Israeli Negev town of Sde Boker on Monday, the top diplomats of Israel, the US and four Arab nations announced that the conference would be the first iteration of a permanent regional forum, as they reaffirmed the importance of growing ties between Israel and the broader Middle East. The foreign ministers of Israel, Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates and the US secretary of state all condemned terrorism, a day after an attack in the city of Hadera in which two Border Police officers were shot dead. The unprecedented gathering was widely seen as an attempt by Israel and its Arab allies to create a front against shared regional foe Iran. Israeli officials told reporters on the scene that the talks centered around creating a "regional security architecture," among other issues. At a joint press conference of all six diplomats following the meetings, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid told reporters that the so-called Negev Summit would become "a permanent forum." He said the confab was building "a new regional architecture based on progress, technology, religious tolerance, security and intelligence cooperation. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:50:11 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Balu: Actually he's not wrong. But I realize he's saying this to set a pretext for escalation. When it was the soviet union, they were powerful. Russia by itself is a trailer park with an oil well and vodka distillery. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:50:33 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BobRoberts: The Bias is so ingrained I am not sure its even possible to do that without completely replacing the military and intelligence apparatus personnel and processes. Its 80 years of inertia behind it. Not to mention, it's infested with GS-Civilians who are notoriously hard to lay off / terminate, so you have to have something for them to do... And of course, they see a boooogyman under every country... |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:52:17 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: Anyone translate this? Anonymous leaked it. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/49447/008331E4-4711-4552-9543-C2BB6E1D3CA6_jpe-2329167.JPG There is a translation posted a couple pages ago when it was originally posted. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:53:25 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Everyone already told Russia they aren’t going to pay it as it’s breach of contract. This is several days old. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By SheltiePimp: Prepare to switch to rubles for natural gas exports by March 31, Vladimir Putin tells Gazprom and Russia's central bank Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the country's biggest gas company and central bank to prepare to start taking rubles for natural gas payments from "unfriendly" countries, saying they should outline their plans by March 31. Putin blindsided traders in the natural gas market last week by announcing Russia would make countries deemed hostile pay for the product in rubles. Russia accounts for around 45% of EU gas imports, with pipeline exports to Europe normally paid for in euros. The President appeared keen to push ahead with the plan on Monday. He ordered Gazprom, the central bank and the government to prepare reports outlining how it will make the switch by Thursday, March 31, according to state news agency Tass. It was not immediately clear whether the switch itself would take place Thursday. Analysts have said Putin is trying to shore up the Russian currency and to make life more complicated for Western countries that have sanctioned Moscow over its war against Ukraine. "At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously free-falling currency in order to pay," Rystad Energy senior analyst Vinicius Romano said last week. "What is clear however, is that this has added another element of uncertainty to the already chaotic European gas market by complicating gas purchases that many countries have been reluctant to cut." The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia of blackmail last week and said the move would be a clear breach of contract. The boss of Italian energy company Eni, Claudio Descalzi, said at a panel in Dubai on Monday that the company would not be paying for gas in rubles. European natural gas prices have soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and pushed higher last week when Putin announced the payment plan. Dutch TTF gas futures, Europe's benchmark price, were up 4.7% Monday to 106 euros per megawatt hour. However, that was below last week's high of around 127 euros and far lower than a price of more than 300 euros hit earlier this month. The ruble was 4.1% higher against the dollar, with $1 changing hands for 98.1 rubles. It has risen relatively sharply since plunging to a low of around 140 rubles to the dollar in early March. --------------------------------------- WWIII, here we come. Everyone already told Russia they aren’t going to pay it as it’s breach of contract. This is several days old. It's 3 hours old. This is a directive to; A) Force Russian oil and gas companies to "only" accept payments for contracts that were settled years ago in rubles. B) Force Russian oil and gas companies to stop all transfers unless payments are made in rubles within 3 days. That means he will cut off all gas supplies in 3 days. All of it, unless they pay on Russian terms. Poland, Hungry, Italy, Germany, all of them face a cessation of gas supplies by the weekend. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:54:04 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Haub: Translation via Google Lens on phone https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51966712336_d0103df0c6_k.jpg So create propaganda videos and have their online trolls and shills spread it |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:54:37 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
Excellent, that's about the 5th time it's been fully liberated on twitter in the last 3 weeks. I'm starting to believe their reports less. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:55:38 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: This. RHD and stick is a little awkward at first. I kept knocking my knuckles on the driver's door when I intended to shift the first time I drove one like that. Combined with all of the roundabouts much hilarity ensued. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By RattleCanAR: Originally Posted By RUM: Originally Posted By Chokey:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone? He is joking about the challenges as an American and RHD. Nothing more to it. This. RHD and stick is a little awkward at first. I kept knocking my knuckles on the driver's door when I intended to shift the first time I drove one like that. Combined with all of the roundabouts much hilarity ensued. If I was in that guy's position, we'd all die. There's no way I'd be able to operate that vehicle proficiently enough to keep up from being killed by the Russians. 
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:55:57 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RickJames1999: Not to mention, it's infested with GS-Civilians who are notoriously hard to lay off / terminate, so you have to have something for them to do... And of course, they see a boooogyman under every country... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RickJames1999: Originally Posted By BobRoberts: The Bias is so ingrained I am not sure its even possible to do that without completely replacing the military and intelligence apparatus personnel and processes. Its 80 years of inertia behind it. Not to mention, it's infested with GS-Civilians who are notoriously hard to lay off / terminate, so you have to have something for them to do... And of course, they see a boooogyman under every country... This was what President Eisenhower was warning about with the "Military Industrial Complex" speech he gave. We have been intentionally overestimating Soviet, and then Russian capabilities since the 50s, for the purposes of our own military spending. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:55:59 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: So create propaganda videos and have their online trolls and shills spread it Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: Originally Posted By Haub: Translation via Google Lens on phone https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51966712336_d0103df0c6_k.jpg So create propaganda videos and have their online trolls and shills spread it Explains the bad acting. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 10:56:37 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: BUT MUH NUKULAR WARRRR! It was scarier when there were 5 times the amount of warheads. Now it is the post launch supply chain failures that will kill everyone, not radiation. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:00:39 AM EDT
[#32]
Based on maps, it looks like Crimea has a bridge to Russia in the east. I don't understand why Russia needs the seaports in Southern Ukraine. Sevastopol should have a warm deep water port. Unless the bridge from Crimea to Russia is some 2 lane wooden piece of shit, I don't understand why those other ports would be so critical. For the costs of this war they could have built a hell of a nice bridge, pipelines, water/sewer, rails, etc.
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:00:54 AM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:00:55 AM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:02:03 AM EDT
[#35]
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:03:20 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
What are the wraps for? |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:03:35 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: It was scarier when there were 5 times the amount of warheads. Now it is the post launch supply chain failures that will kill everyone, not radiation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By CenterMass762: BUT MUH NUKULAR WARRRR! It was scarier when there were 5 times the amount of warheads. Now it is the post launch supply chain failures that will kill everyone, not radiation. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:03:57 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: Heh... who needs Anonymous? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FrankyRay: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Heh... who needs Anonymous? How many of them work in congressional staff positions? |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:04:37 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: When it was the soviet union, they were powerful. Russia by itself is a trailer park with an oil well and vodka distillery. If this was the full extent of it we would not be having this thread. The trailer park had considerable global influence and nuclear weapons. The former has largely been granted out of fear of confronting them and this idiotic desire to see Putin as some sort of reasonable peer. Russia has been allowed to simply get away with exactly what it is doing. Contrary to what some are saying the US has placed very little importance in containing,let alone confronting Russia militarily. Consider the strength of the US forces in Europe when they invaded Georgia. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:05:50 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MattyCR: Biden was the VP for nearly everything on your list, you tell me if he had anything to do with US response to it. Joe's primary job as vp was a deterrent to anyone wanting to shoot obammy. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:05:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: What are the wraps for? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
What are the wraps for? Charges to make the mortar go.  Mortar live-fire exercise Gotta love the field math too. |
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JPN
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:07:35 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Walleyeguy24: Based on maps, it looks like Crimea has a bridge to Russia in the east. I don't understand why Russia needs the seaports in Southern Ukraine. Sevastopol should have a warm deep water port. Unless the bridge from Crimea to Russia is some 2 lane wooden piece of shit, I don't understand why those other ports would be so critical. For the costs of this war they could have built a hell of a nice bridge, pipelines, water/sewer, rails, etc. Cutting Ukraine off from access to the coast will be economically painful to Ukraine. A lot of their exports go through Odessa, so it's a very important port. It will also allow them a land bridge all the way to Romania, which sucks for NATO. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:08:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: R0N]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: What are the wraps for? Powder charges, in the West they are removable to customize the velocity of the rounds to giving more options for range. Making them addable like that is horrible idea, it not only slows shooting, but also increases the chances of charge errors. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:08:43 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Joe's primary job as vp was a deterrent to anyone wanting to shoot obammy. Same as Karmala does for Joe. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:09:34 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: So create propaganda videos and have their online trolls and shills spread it Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hking: Originally Posted By Haub: Translation via Google Lens on phone https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51966712336_d0103df0c6_k.jpg So create propaganda videos and have their online trolls and shills spread it Would it ever occur to you that document might be fake? I'm guessing not. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:10:24 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: You'd have been hard pressed to even find someone in GD who thought the Ukrainians would last more than a week or two. Military strategists, the Pentagon, everybody thought Russia would walk all over Ukraine. The international reaction didn't materialize until days after the invasion. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CenterMass762: Originally Posted By rca2222: Originally Posted By outofbattery: Originally Posted By rca2222: I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again. That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation. Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn't a debate. Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs. If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion. Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility. You'd have been hard pressed to even find someone in GD who thought the Ukrainians would last more than a week or two. Military strategists, the Pentagon, everybody thought Russia would walk all over Ukraine. The international reaction didn't materialize until days after the invasion. The sanctions didn't because they needed the trigger of the invasion, but the international response beforehand was overwhelming and surprisingly unified. Most of the sanctions were laid out before the invasion, in the hope that they would be a deterrent. Putin knew what he was going to face in terms of sanctions and support for Ukraine. He knew his exports would come to a screeching halt. He may not have known how badly his military would perform, but he knew he was facing an economic catastrophe. Even if he had crushed Ukraine, or installed a puppet, the response would have been the same. I believe that he would have taken a way out if one had been available. Now he's fucked, with no way to put the genie back in the bottle, no conventional military credibility, no way to save face, and no way to save the Russian economy. That may lead to the very thing that the west fears most. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:10:36 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cobradriver: I'm hoping the Azov guys pulled back. Better to do a fighting retreat so you can rearm and regroup. Living to fight another day is always good... |
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USA
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:11:02 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AJ_Dual: This was what President Eisenhower was warning about with the "Military Industrial Complex" speech he gave. We have been intentionally overestimating Soviet, and then Russian capabilities since the 50s, for the purposes of our own military spending. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AJ_Dual: Originally Posted By RickJames1999: Originally Posted By BobRoberts: The Bias is so ingrained I am not sure its even possible to do that without completely replacing the military and intelligence apparatus personnel and processes. Its 80 years of inertia behind it. Not to mention, it's infested with GS-Civilians who are notoriously hard to lay off / terminate, so you have to have something for them to do... And of course, they see a boooogyman under every country... This was what President Eisenhower was warning about with the "Military Industrial Complex" speech he gave. We have been intentionally overestimating Soviet, and then Russian capabilities since the 50s, for the purposes of our own military spending. Indeed. Then all the US Flag officers go to work for the big Defense Contractors after they retire, and it's a wash / rinse / repeat... |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:11:18 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By burnka871: What are the wraps for? Their version of cheese charges. |
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Posted: 3/28/2022 11:12:02 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: It was scarier when there were 5 times the amount of warheads. Now it is the post launch supply chain failures that will kill everyone, not radiation.  Frankie Goes To Hollywood - Two Tribes Video Destructo - Widescreen I was actually stationed in England when this was all the rage. CND protestors, who were largely agent provocateur, attempted to surround our base and effectively shut us down, but were unable to impede the flow of traffic. There were a lot of perimeter breaches by the protestors and the British had jurisdiction and would come and collect them. Two full fledged KGB agents were caught by British intelligence. One was actually working in a secure area. Crazy times. The Brit subjects largely hated the yanks, at least, the younger ones did. It was kind of a suck tour. Spain, otoh, was a blast. Was tdy there when the marine barracks was bombed, back in 83. The Cold war was a lot hotter than most people back in the world ever knew. |
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