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Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:41:55 AM EDT
[#1]
Page ownage!
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:46:19 AM EDT
[#2]
Damn you Americans!

Y U no do what we tell you?!!!!

Media say Ukraine boss now!

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Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:48:19 AM EDT
[Last Edit: aeroworksxp] [#3]
Mariupol Update

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Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:48:25 AM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By Zam18th:
That's rich coming from someone whose entire argument rests on an appeal to authority of someone from the Truman administration.

The entire NATO angle is such obvious bullshit. The only thing Putin cares about regarding NATO is how much land he can hold without someone invoking article 5. Russian re-expansion goals have been covered countless times in this thread. And the only threat NATO poses is to that expansion. I'm sorry if it's disorienting to explore ideas beyond avoiding upsetting Russia at all costs.

If Russia was so severely threatened by a defensive alliance that they were forced to invade a neighboring country and slaughter civilians wholesale, then why did they feel the need to shut down access to all external information and tell their own people fantastical stories about Nazis raping and pillaging across the vast Russian speaking lands that, by the way, 'still belong to Russia.' Why wouldn't they just tell the truth about the evil NATO empire that was coming to destroy their homes and enslave them?


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That’s really the point.  Being a NATO country simply means it’s off limits to Russian expansion plans.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:49:15 AM EDT
[#5]
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:51:42 AM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


Russia would have been de-communized had we undertaken a Marshall Plan 2.0, and systematically changed their economy and political system from a commie command economy into a democratic capitalist society. Thats the whole point.

Instead we just let them collapse, did nothing to really re-integrate them or rebuild them in our image, and allowed it to turn into a mafia state run by a mix of oligarchs and fsb operatives. At which point we then spent years kicking sand in their faces, treating them like a has been bitch, and then acted surprised when the old enmities returned.

It was tremendously short sighted policy.
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Your view of what is possible is fantasy.

You can’t have a capitalist, free society in a place where most people are either profoundly immoral, or have no objection to their neighbors and leaders being profoundly immoral.

Until Russia as a culture makes some changes, they can’t be a free, capitalist society any more than Afghanistan could.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:52:05 AM EDT
[#7]
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:


There is no imaginable condition short of installation of another Russian puppet that would have stopped an invasion,you and many others just need to stop with this fantasy.


 Do you understand why it was so important to destroy Mariupol? It wasn't because it was a den of Nazis oppressing the Russian speaking population,it was because Ukraine had invested in it the past 8 years and it looking like this was an embarrassment to Putin

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/6BE95344-AEC7-4D3F-AC23-037E3A2B1C51_jpe-2329024.JPG


 It is the same as why he loathes us: disgust at seeing what people who aren't under Russia's thumb can accomplish. Russia is a bully jock who detests that the poor kid who worked hard in school became successful. It's simply that there has to be a period where the kid who worked hard in school is mocked for having a couple shitty jobs before moving forward while the bully gets to live in past meathead  glory. It really is this simple to understand Russian actions: Putin detests seeing democracy,rule of law and economic and social freedom because he could not rule with these things.
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:
Originally Posted By rca2222:



Your three points are the exact ones I made before the invasion, though I added the restoration of water flow through the Crimean canal. I'm convinced that if they had been offered before that he wouldn't have invaded. That is NOT to say that I think he should get those things, or that Ukraine should agree to such demands.

Sanctions are going to be a political problem for the west regardless. If Russian wells, pipelines, and refineries are permanently damaged (see Zeihan), the oil shock will be politically untenable. If images of starving people hit the news because Russian grain isn't arriving, yet another politically untenable situation will develop. Like it or not, Russia is an important world supplier of both commodities.




There is no imaginable condition short of installation of another Russian puppet that would have stopped an invasion,you and many others just need to stop with this fantasy.


 Do you understand why it was so important to destroy Mariupol? It wasn't because it was a den of Nazis oppressing the Russian speaking population,it was because Ukraine had invested in it the past 8 years and it looking like this was an embarrassment to Putin

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/6BE95344-AEC7-4D3F-AC23-037E3A2B1C51_jpe-2329024.JPG


 It is the same as why he loathes us: disgust at seeing what people who aren't under Russia's thumb can accomplish. Russia is a bully jock who detests that the poor kid who worked hard in school became successful. It's simply that there has to be a period where the kid who worked hard in school is mocked for having a couple shitty jobs before moving forward while the bully gets to live in past meathead  glory. It really is this simple to understand Russian actions: Putin detests seeing democracy,rule of law and economic and social freedom because he could not rule with these things.

I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again.

That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:53:19 AM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By Eat_Beef:



You miss the obvious; the US goobermint NEEDED Russia as an enemy.
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This is beyond idiotic.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:56:59 AM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:

This is beyond idiotic.
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As someone who just left DoD in a compability development role, his statement is actually somewhat accurate.  The Russians were a major planning factor for two of the services way ahead and, and the current conflict has shown those investments probably were not well spent.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 8:58:11 AM EDT
[#10]
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:





This is beyond idiotic.
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:
Originally Posted By Eat_Beef:



You miss the obvious; the US goobermint NEEDED Russia as an enemy.





This is beyond idiotic.


Just typical GD tinfoil.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:00:14 AM EDT
[#11]
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Originally Posted By rca2222:

I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again.

That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation.
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Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn’t a debate.

 Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:00:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Zam18th] [#12]
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Originally Posted By R0N:


As someone who just left DoD in a compability development role, his statement is actually somewhat accurate.  The Russians were a major planning factor for two of the services way ahead and, and the current conflict has shown those investments probably were not well spent.
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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By outofbattery:

This is beyond idiotic.


As someone who just left DoD in a compability development role, his statement is actually somewhat accurate.  The Russians were a major planning factor for two of the services way ahead and, and the current conflict has shown those investments probably were not well spent.
Are you really going to tell us that the US made Russia remain an enemy just so that we'd have a theoretical war to plan for?
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:00:58 AM EDT
[#13]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


Uggh, unless the US/NATO somehow put boots on the ground in Ukraine, or Putin 'dies from covid', that peace deal is the single best outcome Ukraine can hope for.

Russia is a bunch of brutish, drunken oafs weilding ancient weapons built by commies... but they have an authoritarian regime, 140 million people, and a bottomless stockpile of dumb bombs and artillery.

Collectively, Russia can institute a draft, zombie horde this out, taking insane casualties but steadily scouring ukrainian cities from the earth. Every day this war goes on, more of Ukraine is smashed to rubble.

Already Mariupol looks like downtown Syria. Once this happens to every city, Ukraine (a poor country pre-invasion) will be effectively destroyed, destined to poverty and misery for decades barring a complete $100+ Billion rebuilding fund from the west.

So, by comparison, that peace deal is pretty sweet; its essentially a status quo antebellum, recognizing the facts on the ground that existed pre-invasion.

Sucks but thats reality.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Balu:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Eight_Ring:
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Birddog15:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Amazing clip:



And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:





If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia.  Am I understanding that correctly?





He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history.

Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years.
This.  100%.  Great synopsis.

The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point.  If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose.  Period.

They are setting the stage for escalation.



What other choice do they have?

Serious question.


Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution:

1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory
2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc)
3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2)

Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal.

Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen.

That's a completely untenable end state for Ukraine. Why would they even consider a "deal" like that? They would be fools to agree to anything less than the restoration of Ukraine's Budapest Accord borders.


Uggh, unless the US/NATO somehow put boots on the ground in Ukraine, or Putin 'dies from covid', that peace deal is the single best outcome Ukraine can hope for.

Russia is a bunch of brutish, drunken oafs weilding ancient weapons built by commies... but they have an authoritarian regime, 140 million people, and a bottomless stockpile of dumb bombs and artillery.

Collectively, Russia can institute a draft, zombie horde this out, taking insane casualties but steadily scouring ukrainian cities from the earth. Every day this war goes on, more of Ukraine is smashed to rubble.

Already Mariupol looks like downtown Syria. Once this happens to every city, Ukraine (a poor country pre-invasion) will be effectively destroyed, destined to poverty and misery for decades barring a complete $100+ Billion rebuilding fund from the west.

So, by comparison, that peace deal is pretty sweet; its essentially a status quo antebellum, recognizing the facts on the ground that existed pre-invasion.

Sucks but thats reality.


I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:03:11 AM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By Zam18th:
Are you really going to tell us that the US made Russia remain an enemy just so that we'd have a theoretical war to plan for?
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No I am saying that it has been one of the major planning factors that help detemine the size of the military, and the need to spend billions if not trillions.

Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:03:49 AM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By W_E_G:
Damn you Americans!

Y U no do what we tell you?!!!!

Media say Ukraine boss now!

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/105614/D7F6A17F-E2F7-48BB-9703-D95ABBB80EB8_jpe-2329050.JPG
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The US is using Ukraine to bleed Russia.  So I can kinda see where he is coming from.

Give us more shit or Russia will be on Polands door
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:07:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Zam18th] [#16]
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Originally Posted By R0N:

No I am saying that it has been one of the major planning factors that help detemine the size of the military, and the need to spend billions if not trillions.

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Originally Posted By R0N:
Originally Posted By Zam18th:
Are you really going to tell us that the US made Russia remain an enemy just so that we'd have a theoretical war to plan for?

No I am saying that it has been one of the major planning factors that help detemine the size of the military, and the need to spend billions if not trillions.


Ok, because that's the main point of the post you called "somewhat accurate."  Maybe next time give it a "hint of truth" or something so you don't trigger us.

Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:09:02 AM EDT
[#17]
In the 90s we were all on vacation from history. Russia becoming a responsible world power after the fall of the Berlin Wall is fantasy. Hell, even if Putin is shot by his own people, the next leader will be a thorn in everyone's side. It is highly ingrained in their culture and society.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:09:06 AM EDT
[#18]



Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:09:12 AM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By JQ66:



That’s terrible- you’ve got to download the Reddit ap to see those links and photos.  
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Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:09:30 AM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


It wasn't done in a systemic, organized fashion, spanning a decade, which is what would have been required. This was something that needed and required being the main foreign policy focus of the 90's; given the low stakes at the time we certainly had the time and the resources to do it.

That also would have prevented Putin from coming to power in 2000...

We didn't just dump some cash in Germany and Japan and then bounce, hoping for the best.

Like I said, theres a parallel universe (probably one where Ross Perot didnt run, and Bush 1 got a 2nd term...) where this happened.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Ligore:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


Theres a parallel universe where in 1991, after the collapse of the USSR, the US launched a Marshal Plan 2.0 for Russia, and permanently defeated this enemy by making them a friend, ala Germany and Japan post-1945.

In that parallel universe, Russia was a key partner in the Global War on Terror, and in 2022 Russia integrated with the EU and is helping a the US + EU Contain China.

Our 3 greatest mistakes post cold war:

1. Not pivoting to crush China post tiannamen / collapse of USSR
2. Not making Russia a friend, but instead re-creating them as an enemy
3. Invading Iraq, squandering most of the US's Unipolar moment/post9/11 goodwill and destabilizing the mideast


America did pour money into Russia during the Yeltsin era. All it did was result in a lot of Russians expecting middleclass lives and instead lost much of what little they had while a few became incredibly rich without one speck of creating anything. America was setup and got the blame for the giant robbery and we were robbed to. What America should of done us simply stated all that democracy and capitalist stuff America was talking about, that is not what Yeltsin and Yeltsin appointed successor Putin brought you


It wasn't done in a systemic, organized fashion, spanning a decade, which is what would have been required. This was something that needed and required being the main foreign policy focus of the 90's; given the low stakes at the time we certainly had the time and the resources to do it.

That also would have prevented Putin from coming to power in 2000...

We didn't just dump some cash in Germany and Japan and then bounce, hoping for the best.

Like I said, theres a parallel universe (probably one where Ross Perot didnt run, and Bush 1 got a 2nd term...) where this happened.


It actually was done in a systematic fashion. The primary objective was to make sure that the nuclear forces, technology, and people didn't wind up in the hands of other countries which could have threatened the US. During that time, I could have had a Russian PhD scientist working for me for around $35k/yr. However, the problem with what you proposed should have happened could not have at a large scale due to the generations of corruption. The money would have been wasted. We see today that the corruption of the Soviet era is still alive and well in Russia. Until that changes, they will be a two-bit communist country that has nukes.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:14:02 AM EDT
[#21]
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Unfortunately, without reinforcement / resupply or other semblance of support in the way of external offensive / strikes to take pressure off Mariupol, it is inevitable that it will fall.  Likely at YUGE cost to the Orcs, both in men, material, time, and initiative - but still, inevitable.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:17:13 AM EDT
[#22]
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Originally Posted By planemaker:


I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war.
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I know Ukraine is causing substantial casualties on the Russian but I don’t get the perception that Ukraine is “winning”, certainly not enough to re-capture Crimea or LHR/DHR. Yes they are gaining some ground back but every day they are losing critical equipment and supplies that can’t easily be replaced despite getting small arms from the west. I’m trying to balance where I get info from and it’s abundantly apparent just how much both sides are trying to play the info war right now.  I hope you are right but I get the feeling that Russias focus is truly shifting to the east for now and that’s why you are seeing small gains in the north.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:18:34 AM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:



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Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:19:21 AM EDT
[#24]
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Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
In the 90s we were all on vacation from history. Russia becoming a responsible world power after the fall of the Berlin Wall is fantasy. Hell, even if Putin is shot by his own people, the next leader will be a thorn in everyone's side. It is highly ingrained in their culture and society.
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I had been out of the USMC roughly a year when the wall came down. I was optimistic that russia could reform and join the normal world.

Sadly, it didn't happen.

Maybe this time???






Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:19:23 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AaronR] [#25]
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:

.......The post about “America doesn’t have an interest in Ukraine” is myopic because it should have. Ukraine had,and certainly has,a great deal to offer the EU and US. It is American and Western European chauvinism that looks down upon it rather than seeing potential for energy,agriculture and technology. The same people who built Antonovs can build anything to a higher quality than Chinese and it is shameful that investments weren’t made rather than having this view of “they’re just corrupt sort of Russians that need to be in Russian sphere of influence because I heard that and think it sounds knowledgeable to repeat”. It would take far less effort to move goods from Odessa to US and EU markets than from Shenzhen. It doesn’t matter because this didn’t happen,America wanted to stick with China and Germany was too in love with the idea of cheap Russian gas.


It isn’t just Germany being so wrong about Putin
 https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-merkel-germany-scholz-foreign-policy-ukraine-war-invasion-nord-stream-2/


It is America being absolutely wrong about China.
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https://kyivindependent.com/business/chinas-skyrizon-sues-ukrainian-government-for-4-5-billion-over-failed-motor-sich-bid/

doubt this has anything whatsoever to do with the current UKR situation and RUS invasion....
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:20:00 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BerettaGuy] [#26]
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution:

1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory
2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc)
3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2)

Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal.

Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen.
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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Eight_Ring:
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Birddog15:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Amazing clip:



And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:





If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia.  Am I understanding that correctly?





He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history.

Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years.
This.  100%.  Great synopsis.

The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point.  If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose.  Period.

They are setting the stage for escalation.



What other choice do they have?

Serious question.


Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution:

1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory
2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc)
3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2)

Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal.

Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen.



If anything like 1 - 3 are agreed to Ukraine is done for. There are still generals, media, political "experts", and government officials who still don't get what is going on here (who made incorrect predictions all along) and it is because of a lack of understanding of Ukrainian and Russian history and the fact that this conflict is hundreds of years older than the United States.  

Putin did not invade Ukraine because he was afraid of NATO invading Russia, or because of "bio labs", or because of Ukrainian "Nazis" oppressing "Russian speakers", etc., he invaded because HE WANTS ALL OF UKRAINE AND THAT WILL NEVER CHANGE period, end of story. The USSR may have dissolved BUT Russian communism and domination goals NEVER went away. The plans for taking Ukraine started in the 1990s and before Putin was in power:

1)  The Budapest Memorandum was an initial step facilitated with enormous help from communist hippy Bill Clinton and Moscow frequent flyer RINO Sen. Dick Lugar

2) funding the Communist Party of Ukraine (until it was outlawed after 2014) to gain as many seats in the Rada as possible

3) the destruction of millions of surplus small arms, billions of rounds of ammunition, and surplus artillery shells in 2005 with payoff money from Sen. Dick Lugar and lifelong Marxist then Sen. Barak Obama in 2005 (Ukraine could have armed a million citizens in hundreds of villages and towns BUT has a huge small arms shortage now)

4) establishing the communist-lite Party of Regions to fracture Ukraine into autonomous oblasts (this was Yanukovych's party)

5) the fraudulent Kremlin-backed election of Yanukovych to stop all military modernization project efforts by pro-USA Yuschenko who he "defeated" with the help of his Kremlin-paid election expert Paul Manafort. Yanukovych not only stopped military modernization, but changed Ukrainian education to take out any negative history about Russia, wanted Russian to be a co-national language (something Russians persecuted Ukrainians with for hundreds of years), and wanted Russian military forces to occupy Ukrainian military bases.

6) use Russian influenced members of US Congress and NGOs to NOT approve lethal military weapon transfers to Ukraine. Something former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort attempted before Trump was even chosen as a presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention as far the RNC's official policy for Ukraine

7) inhibit all efforts to loosen Ukrainian gun laws to encourage gun ownership.  Although Ukrainians can own military-styled semi-auto rifles, hi-cap magazines, hunting long arms, etc., handguns are still illegal and the process to get any gun is expensive and time consuming.  Zelensky also fought ALL pro-gun efforts when the Ukrainian Gun Owners Association put a bill up for a vote in the Rada just last year. Needless to say, the Ukrainian Communist Party fought all pro-gun efforts when they were still a legal political party but other left leaning/Kremlin funded parties still do. If Ukraine would join the EU, they would be subject to abide by EU gun control unless they fight it like the Czech Republic did and Poland and Italy as well as a few other countries somewhat did.

So, it should be very clear that any concession with Russia will lead to Russia regrouping and rearming for the next attack and continuing to undermine Ukrainian government until Russia has Ukraine. The only hope is that Ukraine keeps fighting, gets larger weapons systems, arms more of the population, and eventually goes on the offensive on Crimea and the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk until Putin is removed and/or Russia falls to the point that they can no longer continue. That's it, there is no other choice for Ukraine.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:24:31 AM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By RickJames1999:

Unfortunately, without reinforcement / resupply or other semblance of support in the way of external offensive / strikes to take pressure off Mariupol, it is inevitable that it will fall.  Likely at YUGE cost to the Orcs, both in men, material, time, and initiative - but still, inevitable.
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Originally Posted By RickJames1999:

Unfortunately, without reinforcement / resupply or other semblance of support in the way of external offensive / strikes to take pressure off Mariupol, it is inevitable that it will fall.  Likely at YUGE cost to the Orcs, both in men, material, time, and initiative - but still, inevitable.



I'm hoping the Azov guys pulled back.
Better to do a fighting retreat so you can rearm and regroup.
Living to fight another day is always good...


Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:26:17 AM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By planemaker:

I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war.
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Originally Posted By planemaker:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Balu:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Eight_Ring:
Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Originally Posted By Birddog15:
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:
Amazing clip:



And overall great (37 post) thread on how sanctions will begin the unraveling of Russia:





If that first clip is from a pro Putin talk show, then I guess what he is saying is that it must either be total victory over Ukraine, or the end of Russia.  Am I understanding that correctly?





He's saying essentially that if "The Great Power known as Russia" TM can't subdue little Ukraine, then the mythos of Russian Power/ Greatness will be shattered irrevocably, and they will be on their way as a worthless power and heading toward the dustbin of history.

Basically he's saying if they can't take Ukraine, any future threat against NATO or the US will seem utterly absurd. And it was their ability to threaten NATO/US that have Russia its Gravitas and domestic legitimacy for the last 70+ years.
This.  100%.  Great synopsis.

The perception of power *is* power . . . and the world's perception of Russia is that they couldn't knock over a lemonade stand run by a troop of girl scouts at this point.  If they don't win definitively - total surrender without conditions - then they lose.  Period.

They are setting the stage for escalation.



What other choice do they have?

Serious question.


Plenty; the best case is not escalation but just keep doing what they are doing until they can negotiate a 80/20 solution:

1. Crimea recognized as Russian territory
2. Ukraine commits to not join NATO or host offensive weapons (ABM, SRBM, Cruise, etc)
3. Donbass becomes 'autonomous' buffer state* (this the least important of the 2)

Achieving 1+2 would actually be a substantial victory, especially if forecast out 40-50 years. Assuming of course that the west removes sanctions if Ukraine asks them too as part of the peace deal.

Thats my biggest fear - Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia...and then the US/West says 'fuck that' and keeps the sanctions going, prompting Russia to continue the war. Thats when escalation is going to happen.

That's a completely untenable end state for Ukraine. Why would they even consider a "deal" like that? They would be fools to agree to anything less than the restoration of Ukraine's Budapest Accord borders.


Uggh, unless the US/NATO somehow put boots on the ground in Ukraine, or Putin 'dies from covid', that peace deal is the single best outcome Ukraine can hope for.

Russia is a bunch of brutish, drunken oafs weilding ancient weapons built by commies... but they have an authoritarian regime, 140 million people, and a bottomless stockpile of dumb bombs and artillery.

Collectively, Russia can institute a draft, zombie horde this out, taking insane casualties but steadily scouring ukrainian cities from the earth. Every day this war goes on, more of Ukraine is smashed to rubble.

Already Mariupol looks like downtown Syria. Once this happens to every city, Ukraine (a poor country pre-invasion) will be effectively destroyed, destined to poverty and misery for decades barring a complete $100+ Billion rebuilding fund from the west.

So, by comparison, that peace deal is pretty sweet; its essentially a status quo antebellum, recognizing the facts on the ground that existed pre-invasion.

Sucks but thats reality.

I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war.

Yep, Putin and Russia aren’t going to be rewarded anything after invading Ukraine. They are going to owe.  It was a dumbass move.



FIGHT, Ukraine!
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:30:34 AM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:


It wasn't done in a systemic, organized fashion, spanning a decade, which is what would have been required. This was something that needed and required being the main foreign policy focus of the 90's; given the low stakes at the time we certainly had the time and the resources to do it.

That also would have prevented Putin from coming to power in 2000...

We didn't just dump some cash in Germany and Japan and then bounce, hoping for the best.

Like I said, theres a parallel universe (probably one where Ross Perot didnt run, and Bush 1 got a 2nd term...) where this happened.
View Quote

You think a decade of free money can fundamentally change the nature of Russians and Russia? How naive.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:33:38 AM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By W_E_G:
Damn you Americans!

Y U no do what we tell you?!!!!

Media say Ukraine boss now!

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/105614/D7F6A17F-E2F7-48BB-9703-D95ABBB80EB8_jpe-2329050.JPG
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Yes, I’m sure you’d stand there and be grateful for what you got as your country is destroyed and your people killed.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:37:41 AM EDT
[#31]
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Originally Posted By Chokey:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small
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Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?

Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:39:40 AM EDT
[#32]
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Originally Posted By Cobradriver:



I'm hoping the Azov guys pulled back.
Better to do a fighting retreat so you can rearm and regroup.
Living to fight another day is always good...


View Quote

No place to pull back to unfortunately.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:42:29 AM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By Cobradriver:



I'm hoping the Azov guys pulled back.
Better to do a fighting retreat so you can rearm and regroup.
Living to fight another day is always good...


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Originally Posted By Cobradriver:
Originally Posted By RickJames1999:

Unfortunately, without reinforcement / resupply or other semblance of support in the way of external offensive / strikes to take pressure off Mariupol, it is inevitable that it will fall.  Likely at YUGE cost to the Orcs, both in men, material, time, and initiative - but still, inevitable.



I'm hoping the Azov guys pulled back.
Better to do a fighting retreat so you can rearm and regroup.
Living to fight another day is always good...




It’s not looking good for sure, unless they are able to move a little more freely at night.  Lots of pro-Russian videos out last night and today of capture Azov buildings, equipment, and depots in Mariupol. However, haven’t seen much in the way of bodies and a lot of “Azov is tucking tail and running when the fighting gets tough” comments on same pro-Russian sites so maybe there is some hope that they are finding some exits. Not much left to defend in Mariupol.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:46:44 AM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:



If anything like 1 - 3 are agreed to Ukraine is done for. There are still generals, media, political "experts", and government officials who still don't get what is going on here (who made incorrect predictions all along) and it is because of a lack of understanding of Ukrainian and Russian history and the fact that this conflict is hundreds of years older than the United States.  

Putin did not invade Ukraine because he was afraid of NATO invading Russia, or because of "bio labs", or because of Ukrainian "Nazis" oppressing "Russian speakers", etc., he invaded because HE WANTS ALL OF UKRAINE AND THAT WILL NEVWR CHANGE period, end of story. The USSR may have dissolved BUT Russian communism and domination goals NEVER went away. The plans for taking Ukraine started in the 1990s and before Putin was in power:

1)  The Budapest Memorandum was an initial step facilitated with enormous help from communist hippy Bill Clinton and Moscow frequent flyer RINO Sen. Dick Lugar

2) funding the Communist Party of Ukraine (until it was outlawed after 2014) to gain as many seats in the Rada as possible

3) the destruction of millions of surplus small arms, billions of rounds of ammunition, and surplus artillery shells in 2005 with payoff money from Sen. Dick Lugar and lifelong Marxist then Sen. Barak Obama in 2005 (Ukraine could have armed a million citizens in hundreds of villages and towns BUT has a huge small arms shortage now)

4) establishing the communist-lite Party of Regions to fracture Ukraine into autonomous oblasts (this was Yanukovych's party)

5) the fraudulent Kremlin-backed election of Yanukovych to stop all military modernization project efforts by pro-USA Yuschenko who he "defeated" with the help of his Kremlin-paid election expert Paul Manafort. Yanukovych not only stopped military modernization, but changed Ukrainian education to take out any negative history about Russia, wanted Russian to be a co-national language (something Russians persecuted Ukrainians with for hundreds of years), and wanted Russian military forces to occupy Ukrainian military bases.

6) use Russian influenced members of US Congress and NGOs to NOT approve lethal military weapon transfers to Ukraine. Something former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort attempted before Trump was even chosen as a presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention as far the RNC's official policy for Ukraine

7) inhibit all efforts to loosen Ukrainian gun laws to encourage gun ownership.  Although Ukrainians can own militar-styled semi-auto rifles, hi-cap magazines, hunting long arms, etc., handguns are still illegal and the process to get any gun is expensive and time consuming.  Zelensky also fought ALL efforts when the Ukrainian Gun Owners Association put a bill up for a vote in the Rada just last year. Needless to say, the Ukrainian Communist Party fought all pro-gun efforts when they were still a legal political party but other left leaning/Kremlin funded parties still do. If Ukraine would join the EU, they would be subject to abide by EU gun control unless they fight it like the Czech Republic did and Poland and Italy as well as a few other countries somewhat did.

So, it should be very clear that any concession with Russia will lead to Russia regrouping and rearming for the next attack and continuing to undermine Ukrainian government until Russia has Ukraine. The only hope is that Ukraine keeps fighting, gets larger weapons systems, arms more of the population, and eventually goes on the offensive on Crimea and the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk until Putin is removed and/or Russia falls to the point that they can no longer continue. That's it, there is no other choice for Ukraine.
View Quote

Good synopsis.

Which side of this mess was McCain on? He was agitating for the 2014 revolution that brought this mess to a head.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:48:28 AM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By planemaker:


I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war.
View Quote

the reason RUS was provoked to invade...

China is first in line (just as they are now being allowed to do in AFG)
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:51:45 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RUM:



Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?

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Originally Posted By RUM:
Originally Posted By Chokey:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small



Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?


He's kidding.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:52:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BerettaGuy] [#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

Good synopsis.

Which side of this mess was McCain on? He was agitating for the 2014 revolution that brought this mess to a head.
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:
Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:



If anything like 1 - 3 are agreed to Ukraine is done for. There are still generals, media, political "experts", and government officials who still don't get what is going on here (who made incorrect predictions all along) and it is because of a lack of understanding of Ukrainian and Russian history and the fact that this conflict is hundreds of years older than the United States.  

Putin did not invade Ukraine because he was afraid of NATO invading Russia, or because of "bio labs", or because of Ukrainian "Nazis" oppressing "Russian speakers", etc., he invaded because HE WANTS ALL OF UKRAINE AND THAT WILL NEVWR CHANGE period, end of story. The USSR may have dissolved BUT Russian communism and domination goals NEVER went away. The plans for taking Ukraine started in the 1990s and before Putin was in power:

1)  The Budapest Memorandum was an initial step facilitated with enormous help from communist hippy Bill Clinton and Moscow frequent flyer RINO Sen. Dick Lugar

2) funding the Communist Party of Ukraine (until it was outlawed after 2014) to gain as many seats in the Rada as possible

3) the destruction of millions of surplus small arms, billions of rounds of ammunition, and surplus artillery shells in 2005 with payoff money from Sen. Dick Lugar and lifelong Marxist then Sen. Barak Obama in 2005 (Ukraine could have armed a million citizens in hundreds of villages and towns BUT has a huge small arms shortage now)

4) establishing the communist-lite Party of Regions to fracture Ukraine into autonomous oblasts (this was Yanukovych's party)

5) the fraudulent Kremlin-backed election of Yanukovych to stop all military modernization project efforts by pro-USA Yuschenko who he "defeated" with the help of his Kremlin-paid election expert Paul Manafort. Yanukovych not only stopped military modernization, but changed Ukrainian education to take out any negative history about Russia, wanted Russian to be a co-national language (something Russians persecuted Ukrainians with for hundreds of years), and wanted Russian military forces to occupy Ukrainian military bases.

6) use Russian influenced members of US Congress and NGOs to NOT approve lethal military weapon transfers to Ukraine. Something former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort attempted before Trump was even chosen as a presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention as far the RNC's official policy for Ukraine

7) inhibit all efforts to loosen Ukrainian gun laws to encourage gun ownership.  Although Ukrainians can own militar-styled semi-auto rifles, hi-cap magazines, hunting long arms, etc., handguns are still illegal and the process to get any gun is expensive and time consuming.  Zelensky also fought ALL efforts when the Ukrainian Gun Owners Association put a bill up for a vote in the Rada just last year. Needless to say, the Ukrainian Communist Party fought all pro-gun efforts when they were still a legal political party but other left leaning/Kremlin funded parties still do. If Ukraine would join the EU, they would be subject to abide by EU gun control unless they fight it like the Czech Republic did and Poland and Italy as well as a few other countries somewhat did.

So, it should be very clear that any concession with Russia will lead to Russia regrouping and rearming for the next attack and continuing to undermine Ukrainian government until Russia has Ukraine. The only hope is that Ukraine keeps fighting, gets larger weapons systems, arms more of the population, and eventually goes on the offensive on Crimea and the parts of Luhansk and Donetsk until Putin is removed and/or Russia falls to the point that they can no longer continue. That's it, there is no other choice for Ukraine.

Good synopsis.

Which side of this mess was McCain on? He was agitating for the 2014 revolution that brought this mess to a head.


Thanks.

McCain pushed for the first Javelins to be transferred as well as changing the State Department restrictions on weapons transfers.

The 2014 revolution freed Ukraine from Putin's Plan A to enslave it (Plan B is what we are seeing now). The revolution did not cause any "mess" - Putin's Russia caused the mess.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:56:27 AM EDT
[#38]
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:



Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn't a debate.

 Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs.
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Originally Posted By outofbattery:
Originally Posted By rca2222:

I disagree about the invasion being a foregone conclusion. You and I have debated this before, hundreds of pages ago, so there's no point in doing so again.

That's an interesting take on Mariupol. Consider that it could also be getting hammered because their forces have more control in the surrounding area vs. their situation near Kiev. It's also a symbolic point of victory (at least partly) in an otherwise failed operation.



Nothing you have said was persuasive enough for me to do anything but dismiss it as nonsense,that isn't a debate.

 Every single pretext Russia has given is manufactured around the premise that it was going to be a quick and easy victory. This had as much to do with water flow to Crimea as Nazis and bio labs.

If it was nonsense, then why does Russia seem to be signaling those very goals now? I don't disagree that Putin would have loved to take over Ukraine or make it a vassal state, but it was clear long before the tanks rolled that it wasn't going to happen. He knew what he was up against as soon as the international reaction materialized. If he was given a way out then he would have taken it, in my opinion.

Your location doesn't make your opinions universally unimpeachable. You would be well served by a bit of humility.


Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:56:55 AM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SuperSixOne:
Bidet doesn't even know what he's saying, so I doubt anyone outside the WH takes him serious.

It's a really great time to have Jimmy Carter 2.0.
View Quote

My 2cents says fjb does know what he is saying but due to his dementia, lacks the deceit filter normal to lying sacks of shit.
Just like his famous fraudulent election statement. He was briefed on it, remembers it, and says same.

Stuff bloating out his mouth is all he can remember at the moment. Which is why we frequently see and hear him say, where to stand, who to call on, when to leave, etc. Before his public event, his keepers are briefing him on what,where but his addled mind is not mixing up the lie from the stage.

He will get worse and our country will pay for it.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 9:57:35 AM EDT
[#40]
War in Ukraine -- and What It Means for the World Order | Ian Bremmer | TED
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:03:26 AM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Firefly1032:


I know Ukraine is causing substantial casualties on the Russian but I don’t get the perception that Ukraine is “winning”, certainly not enough to re-capture Crimea or LHR/DHR. Yes they are gaining some ground back but every day they are losing critical equipment and supplies that can’t easily be replaced despite getting small arms from the west. I’m trying to balance where I get info from and it’s abundantly apparent just how much both sides are trying to play the info war right now.  I hope you are right but I get the feeling that Russias focus is truly shifting to the east for now and that’s why you are seeing small gains in the north.
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Originally Posted By Firefly1032:
Originally Posted By planemaker:


I don't think Russia has the ability to do to any other city what they've done to Mariupol. At this point, as long as western weaponry continues to flow like water, Russia will end up getting pushed back to the original pre-war borders and possibly removed from Crimea. The only peace accord the Ukrainians will want to sign is one where Russia gives up its claims to Ukrainian land altogether. After that, it's up to Ukraine to decide what it wants to do. For sure, Ukraine can count on money coming in for rebuilding. The west may use all the seized Russian assets to get the money to send to them just as a big FU to Putin (assuming he's still around). The west also wants access to Ukrainian resources like wheat, oil, and gas. That's why money will pour into Ukraine post-war.


I know Ukraine is causing substantial casualties on the Russian but I don’t get the perception that Ukraine is “winning”, certainly not enough to re-capture Crimea or LHR/DHR. Yes they are gaining some ground back but every day they are losing critical equipment and supplies that can’t easily be replaced despite getting small arms from the west. I’m trying to balance where I get info from and it’s abundantly apparent just how much both sides are trying to play the info war right now.  I hope you are right but I get the feeling that Russias focus is truly shifting to the east for now and that’s why you are seeing small gains in the north.


The theory is that Russia cannot resupply because they no longer have the materiel to resupply with. On the other hand, Ukraine can continue to use ATGMs, and have supposedly received some advanced SAMs of some sort that will defeat the cruise missiles (what few Russia has left). Once Ukraine gets more of those and anti-ship missiles, the ability of Russia to prosecute the war goes to near zero. Ukraine has been pushing the Russians back on all fronts including in the east. It's still going to be a long, slow slog to dislodge the Russians and send them packing. The West needs to hurry up and get the advanced weapons and equipment like SAMS, Switchblades and the like to Ukraine. Talk is cheap, lives are not.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:11:36 AM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RUM:



Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?

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Originally Posted By RUM:
Originally Posted By Chokey:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small



Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?


No I think he’s probably make a joke at his own expense that driving a vehicle he is unfamiliar with will be a steep learning curve.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:14:21 AM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RUM:



Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?

View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RUM:
Originally Posted By Chokey:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO65fpjX0Acbb3u?format=jpg&name=small



Is he complaining about not getting something tailored to him in a war zone?



He is joking about the challenges as an American and RHD. Nothing more to it.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:15:12 AM EDT
[#44]
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:17:17 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
View Quote



Seems like the Ukrainians need some of those little AIP subs sweden makes.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:18:46 AM EDT
[#46]
Ukraine got another one

Another tank chose not Z, but the side of good. To wash away Putin's symbol, to tint it a little - yes, it will serve, but it's a good thing. @LastBP 🛡 | @UA_struggle 🇺🇦

Captured
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:20:56 AM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Zam18th:
Are you really going to tell us that the US made Russia remain an enemy just so that we'd have a theoretical war to plan for?
View Quote


Threats, real or theoretical drive planning and budget.
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:23:14 AM EDT
[#48]
Prepare to switch to rubles for natural gas exports by March 31, Vladimir Putin tells Gazprom and Russia's central bank


Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the country's biggest gas company and central bank to prepare to start taking rubles for natural gas payments from "unfriendly" countries, saying they should outline their plans by March 31.

Putin blindsided traders in the natural gas market last week by announcing Russia would make countries deemed hostile pay for the product in rubles. Russia accounts for around 45% of EU gas imports,  with pipeline exports to Europe normally paid for in euros.

The President appeared keen to push ahead with the plan on Monday. He ordered Gazprom, the central bank and the government to prepare reports outlining how it will make the switch by Thursday, March 31, according to state news agency Tass. It was not immediately clear whether the switch itself would take place Thursday.

Analysts have said Putin is trying to shore up the Russian currency and to make life more complicated for Western countries that have sanctioned Moscow over its war against Ukraine.

"At face value this appears to be an attempt to prop up the ruble by compelling gas buyers to buy the previously free-falling currency in order to pay," Rystad Energy senior analyst Vinicius Romano said last week.

"What is clear however, is that this has added another element of uncertainty to the already chaotic European gas market by complicating gas purchases that many countries have been reluctant to cut."

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accused Russia of blackmail last week and said the move would be a clear breach of contract.

The boss of Italian energy company Eni, Claudio Descalzi, said at a panel in Dubai on Monday that the company would not be paying for gas in rubles.

European natural gas prices have soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and pushed higher last week when Putin announced the payment plan.

Dutch TTF gas futures, Europe's benchmark price, were up 4.7% Monday to 106 euros per megawatt hour. However, that was below last week's high of around 127 euros and far lower than a price of more than 300 euros hit earlier this month.

The ruble was 4.1% higher against the dollar, with $1 changing hands for 98.1 rubles. It has risen relatively sharply since plunging to a low of around 140 rubles to the dollar in early March.

---------------------------------------

WWIII, here we come.



Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:23:52 AM EDT
[#49]
Link Posted: 3/28/2022 10:25:12 AM EDT
[#50]
Just to reiterate the obvious, this thread wouldn’t exist had Putin not invaded Ukraine.

First real force on force conflict Russia/Soviet’s have engaged in since WW2.

Russians believed their own propaganda.

The threat of force is often more powerful than actual force.

When you promise bunker buster then unzip your fly and deliver micropenis many will be disappoint.
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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 1348 of 5592)
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