Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists
About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos

Mikhail Khodarenok

About the author: Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok - ex-chief of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st Directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel

Some representatives of the Russian political class today claim that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (called shorter terms) if a military conflict begins. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality.

The opinion in the expert community of Russia has recently become quite entrenched that it will not even be necessary to bring troops into the territory of Ukraine, as the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.

Some political scientists emphasize that almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations will be destroyed by a powerful fire strike by Russia. Moreover, a number of experts conclude that even one crushing blow by Russia will be enough for such a war to end.

As a cherry on the cake, individual analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the "Kiev regime".

THERE WILL BE NO EASY WALK

Let's start with the last one. To claim that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means in practice complete ignorance of the military and political situation and the moods of the broad masses in a neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.

It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 taught no one anything. Then they also expected that the whole left-bank Ukraine would turn to Novorossiya in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds. They have already drawn maps, estimated the staff of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed national flags.

But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including cities such as Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in its vast majority. The Novorossiya project somehow imperceptibly blown away and died quietly.

In short, there is no way to make a liberation campaign in 2022 on the model and likeness of 1939. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are more correct than ever: "You can see that we will have not an easy fight now, but a hard battle."

"SMALL BLOOD, A MIGHTY BLOW"

Now about the "powerful fire strike of Russia", which allegedly will destroy "almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

Only one expression shows that only political workers could say this. For reference: during hypothetical military operations on the scale of the theater of operations, strikes on priority objects and massive fire strikes are carried out. Note that in the course of operational and strategic planning, the epithets "powerful" (as well as "medium", "weak", etc.) are not applied.

Military science emphasizes that strikes can be strategic (this mainly applies to strategic nuclear forces), operational and tactical. According to the number of involved forces and objects hit, the strikes can be massive, group and single. And it is still better not to introduce or use other concepts, even in political works.

Strikes on priority targets and massive fire strikes can be carried out within the front (fronts on the western borders of Russia have not yet been formed) or the main command of the armed forces in the theater of operations (until it has been created in the South-West strategic direction either). Anything smaller than this is no longer a massive blow.

And what is, for example, a massive fire strike (MOU) of the front? To begin with, we note that the maximum number of combat-ready forces and means of aviation, missile troops and artillery, EW equipment at the disposal of the commander of the front troops (operational and strategic association) is involved in the MOU. MOU is one massive flight of aviation, two or three launches of OTR and TR missile systems, several artillery fire raids. It is good if the degree of fire defeat of the enemy is 60-70%.

What is the most important thing in this matter in relation to the conflict with Ukraine? Of course, MOU will cause heavy losses to the probable enemy. But to count on just one such blow to crush the armed forces of an entire state means to show simply unbridled optimism in the planning and conduct of hostilities. Such MOUs in the course of hypothetical strategic actions will have to be applied not one or two, but much more.

To this it must be added that the stockpiles of promising and high-precision weapons in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are not of any limitless nature. Zircon-class hypersonic missiles are not yet in service. And the number of "Calibers" (sea-based cruise missiles), "Daggers", X-101 (air-based cruise missiles) and missiles to the "Iskanders" is at best measured in hundreds (dozens in the case of "Daggers"). This arsenal is not enough to erase a state the size of France and a population of more than 40 million people from the face of the Earth. Namely, these are the parameters that Ukraine is characterized.

ABOUT DOMINATION IN THE AIR

Sometimes the Russian expert community claims (adors of the Douai doctrine) that since hypothetical hostilities in Ukraine will take place under the complete dominance of Russian aviation in the air, the war will be extremely short and will end in the shortest possible time.

At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition did not have a single aircraft or a single combat helicopter during the conflict of 1979-1989. And the war in this country lasted for as long as 10 years. There was not a single aircraft for Chechen militants either. And the fight against them lasted several years and cost the federal forces great blood and sacrifices.

And the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have any combat aviation. As well as air defense equipment.

By the way, Ukrainian calculations of anti-aircraft missile troops (not Georgian) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in open shock from the losses suffered. And don't forget about it.

PAID IN ADVANCE

Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine has problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must be admitted. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards. And today very modern weapons and equipment are coming and continue to arrive in Ukraine from many countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.

As for the weakest point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the Air Force. It cannot be ruled out that the collective West can supply fighters to Kiev in a fairly short time, as they say, from the presence of armed forces - in other words, used. However, this second-hand in its tactical and technical characteristics will be quite comparable to most aircraft of the Russian fleet.

Of course, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are significantly inferior to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in their combat and operational capabilities. No one has any doubts about it - neither in the East nor in the West.

But you can't treat this army lightly either. In this regard, you should always remember the covenant of Alexander Suvorov: "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you."

Now as for the claim that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine.

It should be noted that most likely it will be so. However, this does not exclude in the event of Russia's invasion of massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and volume supplies of all kinds of material means. In this regard, the West has already shown an unprecedented consolidated position, which does not seem to have been predicted in Moscow.

There is no doubt that some reincarnation of Lend-Lease modeled and likeness of World War II will begin on the part of the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance countries. There may be an influx of volunteers from the West, of whom there may be a lot.

GUERRILLAS AND UNDERGROUND FIGHTERS

And finally, about the duration of the hypothetical campaign. In the Russian expert community, they are called several hours, sometimes even a few tens of minutes. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that we have already gone through all this. The phrase "take the city with one parachute landing regiment in two hours" has already become a classic of the genre.

It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multimillion-dollar Soviet army have fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years. And now there is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily become partisans. In addition, these formations can easily begin to operate on the territory of Russia.

Armed struggle in large Ukrainian cities is generally difficult to predict. It is well known that the big city is the best battlefield for the weak and less technically advanced side of the armed conflict.

Serious experts emphasize that in the metropolis it is possible not only to concentrate a group of thousands or even tens of thousands of fighters, but also to hide it from the superior firepower of the enemy. And also to supply it with material resources for a long time and make up for losses in people and equipment. Neither mountains, nor forests, nor jungle provide such an opportunity today.

Experts are convinced that the urban environment helps the defenders, slows down the movement of attackers, allows you to place a record number of fighters per unit area, compensates for the backlog in strength and technology. And in Ukraine, there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million people. So the Russian army during the hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet more than one Stalingrad and Grozny.

CONCLUSIONS

In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. Statements of some experts such as "The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes", "Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in case of a full-scale war", "Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes" have no serious reason.

And finally, most importantly. The armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally in the interests of Russia. Therefore, some overexcited Russian experts should forget about their hat-infancy fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.