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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:04:10 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mbinky: PLEASE let this be true. They really need some standoff capability. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mbinky: Originally Posted By Chokey:
PLEASE let this be true. They really need some standoff capability. Especially if we supply modern guided rockets for them. M30s and M31s would put some serious hurt right up the Russian's backside. |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:06:24 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: What is the weapon at 00:03. ? It seems to resemble that big revolver grenade launcher. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MATADOR |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:07:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Despite the various “sky is falling” posts, these posts have it. Ukraine is fighting a mobile defense-in-depth. They have the territory to trade for time and Russian KIAs. There are many, many examples of competent armies behaving foolishly for political reasons. Germany on the Eastern Front, with Hitler’s insane orders for “No retreat” is a prime example. Germany could’ve preserved much more of their army and ultimately extracted greater costs from the Russians with strategic retreats. Instead they frequently held in unfavorable conditions and got wrecked. It should be noted that Mariupol may be the only time that’s happened to the Ukrainians. Russia is moving forward at a snail’s pace and taking significant losses to do so. No significant encirclements of field forces (besides Azov) have happened. That should tell you something. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By GTLandser: JFC people, fucking relax. How far was the Russian advance to seize Severodonetsk? 10-15km? It's 250km to Dnipro. So at their present rate of advance, they'll get there in...18 months? It is foolish to fight for every km of ground. The Ukrainians will do what any military would do when faced with a numerical disadvantage avoid encirclement and withdraw to the next defensible piece of terrain, and/or shorten and consolidate their lines until any numerical advantage is mitigated. The Russians have proven completely incapable of sustaining deep advances into Ukrainian territory, and every advance creates a vulnerable flank. This has been done in warfare since the time of sharp sticks. The Ukrainians will be fine.  Agreed If someone wants to fight an area defense, and fight for every square inch of terrain, that's an option. This looks like a mobile defense. UA Infantry are attriting tanks and UAVs are attriting everything, while the Russians burn up artillery and the UA infantry fall back. The idea would be for the defenders to counterattack and regain the ground when a vulnerability opens up. Its really 1917 German tactics 101 from the Western front, where fighting for every square inch under the threat of superior enemy artillery would get you to lose lots of people for nothing. IF we hear of a failed Ukrainian tank counterattack and IF we see pictures of hundreds of Ukrainian wrecks, start worrying. We're not close to that point. Despite the various “sky is falling” posts, these posts have it. Ukraine is fighting a mobile defense-in-depth. They have the territory to trade for time and Russian KIAs. There are many, many examples of competent armies behaving foolishly for political reasons. Germany on the Eastern Front, with Hitler’s insane orders for “No retreat” is a prime example. Germany could’ve preserved much more of their army and ultimately extracted greater costs from the Russians with strategic retreats. Instead they frequently held in unfavorable conditions and got wrecked. It should be noted that Mariupol may be the only time that’s happened to the Ukrainians. Russia is moving forward at a snail’s pace and taking significant losses to do so. No significant encirclements of field forces (besides Azov) have happened. That should tell you something. Plus hints from todays ISW assessment: The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia, specifically around Melitopol, has been reinforced by a battalion using outdated T-62 tanks, confirming earlier Ukrainian reports that Russian forces are cobbling together battalions with obsolete T-62 tanks to compensate for equipment losses. Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:20:06 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Plus hints from todays ISW assessment: Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By GTLandser: JFC people, fucking relax. How far was the Russian advance to seize Severodonetsk? 10-15km? It's 250km to Dnipro. So at their present rate of advance, they'll get there in...18 months? It is foolish to fight for every km of ground. The Ukrainians will do what any military would do when faced with a numerical disadvantage avoid encirclement and withdraw to the next defensible piece of terrain, and/or shorten and consolidate their lines until any numerical advantage is mitigated. The Russians have proven completely incapable of sustaining deep advances into Ukrainian territory, and every advance creates a vulnerable flank. This has been done in warfare since the time of sharp sticks. The Ukrainians will be fine. Agreed If someone wants to fight an area defense, and fight for every square inch of terrain, that's an option. This looks like a mobile defense. UA Infantry are attriting tanks and UAVs are attriting everything, while the Russians burn up artillery and the UA infantry fall back. The idea would be for the defenders to counterattack and regain the ground when a vulnerability opens up. Its really 1917 German tactics 101 from the Western front, where fighting for every square inch under the threat of superior enemy artillery would get you to lose lots of people for nothing. IF we hear of a failed Ukrainian tank counterattack and IF we see pictures of hundreds of Ukrainian wrecks, start worrying. We're not close to that point. Despite the various “sky is falling” posts, these posts have it. Ukraine is fighting a mobile defense-in-depth. They have the territory to trade for time and Russian KIAs. There are many, many examples of competent armies behaving foolishly for political reasons. Germany on the Eastern Front, with Hitler’s insane orders for “No retreat” is a prime example. Germany could’ve preserved much more of their army and ultimately extracted greater costs from the Russians with strategic retreats. Instead they frequently held in unfavorable conditions and got wrecked. It should be noted that Mariupol may be the only time that’s happened to the Ukrainians. Russia is moving forward at a snail’s pace and taking significant losses to do so. No significant encirclements of field forces (besides Azov) have happened. That should tell you something. Plus hints from todays ISW assessment: The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia, specifically around Melitopol, has been reinforced by a battalion using outdated T-62 tanks, confirming earlier Ukrainian reports that Russian forces are cobbling together battalions with obsolete T-62 tanks to compensate for equipment losses. Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:22:02 PM EDT
[#5]
How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/politics/zelensky-ukraine-war.html WASHINGTON — Three months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are quietly debating the inevitable question: How does this end? In recent days, presidents and prime ministers as well as the Democratic and Republican Party leaders in the United States have called for victory in Ukraine. But just beneath the surface are real divisions about what that would look like — and whether “victory” has the same definition in the United States, in Europe and, perhaps most importantly, in Ukraine. In the past few days alone there has been an Italian proposal for a cease-fire, a vow from Ukraine’s leadership to push Russia back to the borders that existed before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, and renewed discussion by administration officials about a “strategic defeat” for President Vladimir V. Putin — one that would assure that he is incapable of mounting a similar attack again. At their heart lies a fundamental debate about whether the three-decade-long project to integrate Russia should end. At a moment when the U.S. refers to Russia as a pariah state that needs to be cut off from the world economy, others, largely in Europe, are warning of the dangers of isolating and humiliating Mr. Putin. ... Very good article with a lot more; unsurprisingly Germany/France/Italy are being dicks, while the US may be overly optimistic. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:22:19 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Maybe they plan to coat the outside with Shanghaied Chechens? Using blood steam explosions to disrupt shaped charges... |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:28:32 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
Yesssss. Washing machine stealing rapists on notice. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:35:41 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tomislav: Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. Let’s find some M-48 and M-60s to add to the mix! |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:50:14 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TylerF: https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/page/804/#comments Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TylerF: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By TylerF: On another forum I frequent, the breakthrough at Popasna was due to Ukr TD units pulling off the line unauthorized and leaving a large gap to exploit. Apparently, the TD unit commanders were frustrated they believed they were not getting enough support from air or artillery. It has caused a row between the regular army and the TD units, as the regular forces have been fighting under the same conditions since February. This info is all from a Ukrainian. Says there are issues with TD units not wanting to fight outside of a units "home" territory. Which is what the case is with the Popasna TD troops. They were rotated in from the western part of Ukraine. What forum? https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/page/804/#comments Thanks |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:51:06 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: The real nightmare is if Russia controls territory enough that they are able to officially annex it and declare it Part of Russia. At which point they will frame any attempt at counter attack / liberations as an Invasion of Russia... They have made previous mention that they would consider any attempt at retaking Crimea as an Invasion of Russia which could (actually) see the deployment of nuclear weapons, as opposed to the normal saber rattling. Thats the real risk of an Armstice / cease fire / allowing Russia to control territory. Yes, that's exactly what Russia will say. But they know they can't throw nukes. Putin and his cronies want to be rich and powerful. If they start throwing nukes, there's a very high probability they lose everything. Launching nukes would be an act of suicide, an they know it. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:55:28 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tomislav: Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tomislav: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By GTLandser: JFC people, fucking relax. How far was the Russian advance to seize Severodonetsk? 10-15km? It's 250km to Dnipro. So at their present rate of advance, they'll get there in...18 months? It is foolish to fight for every km of ground. The Ukrainians will do what any military would do when faced with a numerical disadvantage avoid encirclement and withdraw to the next defensible piece of terrain, and/or shorten and consolidate their lines until any numerical advantage is mitigated. The Russians have proven completely incapable of sustaining deep advances into Ukrainian territory, and every advance creates a vulnerable flank. This has been done in warfare since the time of sharp sticks. The Ukrainians will be fine. Agreed If someone wants to fight an area defense, and fight for every square inch of terrain, that's an option. This looks like a mobile defense. UA Infantry are attriting tanks and UAVs are attriting everything, while the Russians burn up artillery and the UA infantry fall back. The idea would be for the defenders to counterattack and regain the ground when a vulnerability opens up. Its really 1917 German tactics 101 from the Western front, where fighting for every square inch under the threat of superior enemy artillery would get you to lose lots of people for nothing. IF we hear of a failed Ukrainian tank counterattack and IF we see pictures of hundreds of Ukrainian wrecks, start worrying. We're not close to that point. Despite the various “sky is falling” posts, these posts have it. Ukraine is fighting a mobile defense-in-depth. They have the territory to trade for time and Russian KIAs. There are many, many examples of competent armies behaving foolishly for political reasons. Germany on the Eastern Front, with Hitler’s insane orders for “No retreat” is a prime example. Germany could’ve preserved much more of their army and ultimately extracted greater costs from the Russians with strategic retreats. Instead they frequently held in unfavorable conditions and got wrecked. It should be noted that Mariupol may be the only time that’s happened to the Ukrainians. Russia is moving forward at a snail’s pace and taking significant losses to do so. No significant encirclements of field forces (besides Azov) have happened. That should tell you something. Plus hints from todays ISW assessment: The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia, specifically around Melitopol, has been reinforced by a battalion using outdated T-62 tanks, confirming earlier Ukrainian reports that Russian forces are cobbling together battalions with obsolete T-62 tanks to compensate for equipment losses. Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. Each year since 2020 has told the last to hold it's beer. 
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:57:16 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By oswald01: Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth. As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas. A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime. Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire. Another Russian shill. That whole post is If you wanna post in this thread, you have to provide something other than Russian propaganda. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 9:58:15 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: Let's find some M-48 and M-60s to add to the mix!  T-62 vs M-60 battles filmed by drones is exactly what 2022 needs. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:03:55 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/politics/zelensky-ukraine-war.html WASHINGTON — Three months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are quietly debating the inevitable question: How does this end? In recent days, presidents and prime ministers as well as the Democratic and Republican Party leaders in the United States have called for victory in Ukraine. But just beneath the surface are real divisions about what that would look like — and whether “victory” has the same definition in the United States, in Europe and, perhaps most importantly, in Ukraine. In the past few days alone there has been an Italian proposal for a cease-fire, a vow from Ukraine’s leadership to push Russia back to the borders that existed before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, and renewed discussion by administration officials about a “strategic defeat” for President Vladimir V. Putin — one that would assure that he is incapable of mounting a similar attack again. At their heart lies a fundamental debate about whether the three-decade-long project to integrate Russia should end. At a moment when the U.S. refers to Russia as a pariah state that needs to be cut off from the world economy, others, largely in Europe, are warning of the dangers of isolating and humiliating Mr. Putin. ... Very good article with a lot more; unsurprisingly Germany/France/Italy are being dicks, while the US may be overly optimistic. I have trouble wrapping my head around people being okay with Ukraine giving up territory. I can't help but equate it to my house: My neighbor decides he wants my house so one day he and his family kick in my front door and start killing my family. He manages to get through my living room, dining room and kitchen, but I stop him at the entrance to the hall and we're all barricaded in the bedrooms, and we're more or less at a stalemate. About that time the police show up, and tell me that if he's willing to let me have my kitchen back, I should just let him keep my living room and dining room. And then they insinuate that if I DON'T accept those terms, that any further death is my fault because I could have stopped the fighting, but chose not to. Fuck that. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:04:15 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Maybe they plan to coat the outside with Shanghaied Chechens? Using blood steam explosions to disrupt shaped charges... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By THOT_Vaccine: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Maybe they plan to coat the outside with Shanghaied Chechens? Using blood steam explosions to disrupt shaped charges... lol, well we'll see when the videos come out. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:04:15 PM EDT
[#16]
If there are concerns about sending the M270 MLRS and M241 HIMARS rocket artillery systems to Ukraine because Russia may view it as unacceptable, then I think it would be pretty simple to alleviate those concerns. First, simply don't supply Ukraine with the ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles that can be used from this system. Only supply them with 227mm rockets and the 227mm rocket pods. Secondly, make sure the Ukrainian leadership from the top government officials all the way down to battery and section level leaders know that we do not want these systems to used to strike targets inside Russia. I believe the Ukrainians understand that western countries don't want to be dragged into war and will likely cooperate. They will know that we can always cut off the re-supply of additional rockets they will need to sustain their defense and counter-attacks, so this should be a pretty easy request to enforce. Besides, Ukraine already possesses the Tochka-U tactical short range ballistic missile system they can (and have used) to strike strategic targets inside Russia.
Now, I am not saying I actually give a fuck about Russia's concerns. At this point I wouldn't care if we provided them with ATACMS as well and told them to tear Russia a new asshole with them. Russia has probably fired hundreds of Iskander short range ballistic missiles into Ukraine from within Russia and Belarus, so turnabout seems fair play to me. But what I am saying, if Biden and his inner circle are worried that supplying MLRS type systems might be too provocative, there are ways to mitigate those concerns and still give Ukraine what it needs to eject this horde of fucking orcs from their land. And that really is the main goal anyway --- not to strike into Russia, but to defeat and drive out the Russian forces that are attempting to occupy parts of Ukraine. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:05:48 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gunner226: I have trouble wrapping my head around people being okay with Ukraine giving up territory. I can't help but equate it to my house: My neighbor decides he wants my house so one day he and his family kick in my front door and start killing my family. He manages to get through my living room, dining room and kitchen, but I stop him at the entrance to the hall and we're all barricaded in the bedrooms, and we're more or less at a stalemate. About that time the police show up, and tell me that if he's willing to let me have my kitchen back, I should just let him keep my living room and dining room. And then they insinuate that if I DON'T accept those terms, that any further death is my fault because I could have stopped the fighting, but chose not to. Fuck that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gunner226: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/politics/zelensky-ukraine-war.html WASHINGTON — Three months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are quietly debating the inevitable question: How does this end? In recent days, presidents and prime ministers as well as the Democratic and Republican Party leaders in the United States have called for victory in Ukraine. But just beneath the surface are real divisions about what that would look like — and whether “victory” has the same definition in the United States, in Europe and, perhaps most importantly, in Ukraine. In the past few days alone there has been an Italian proposal for a cease-fire, a vow from Ukraine’s leadership to push Russia back to the borders that existed before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, and renewed discussion by administration officials about a “strategic defeat” for President Vladimir V. Putin — one that would assure that he is incapable of mounting a similar attack again. At their heart lies a fundamental debate about whether the three-decade-long project to integrate Russia should end. At a moment when the U.S. refers to Russia as a pariah state that needs to be cut off from the world economy, others, largely in Europe, are warning of the dangers of isolating and humiliating Mr. Putin. ... Very good article with a lot more; unsurprisingly Germany/France/Italy are being dicks, while the US may be overly optimistic. I have trouble wrapping my head around people being okay with Ukraine giving up territory. I can't help but equate it to my house: My neighbor decides he wants my house so one day he and his family kick in my front door and start killing my family. He manages to get through my living room, dining room and kitchen, but I stop him at the entrance to the hall and we're all barricaded in the bedrooms, and we're more or less at a stalemate. About that time the police show up, and tell me that if he's willing to let me have my kitchen back, I should just let him keep my living room and dining room. And then they insinuate that if I DON'T accept those terms, that any further death is my fault because I could have stopped the fighting, but chose not to. Fuck that. Great analogy, I don't understand that thinking either. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:10:10 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Another Russian shill. That whole post is If you wanna post in this thread, you have to provide something other than Russian propaganda. The last Oswald I saw that was such a Russian lover shot a President. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:14:02 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chokey:
 Attached File Attached File |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:23:25 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By oswald01: Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth. As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas. A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime. Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire. This is really retarded sir. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:25:59 PM EDT
[#21]
United Kingdom's MOD daily update for 5/26 as posted on FB. No map today. You can read as much or as little into that as you want.
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:26:53 PM EDT
[#22]
What HIMARS Rocket Artillery Systems Can Actually Do For Ukraine
American rocket launchers are not a ‘silver bullet’ and they come with different levels of capabilities depending on the ammo provided. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-himars-rocket-systems-can-and-cant-do-for-ukraine The maximum range of either of these systems is dependent on what type of munition they're firing. The longest range artillery rockets currently available for the system are the M30 (submunition warhead) and M31 (unitary warhead) precision-guided types, which are GPS/INS guided and can hit targets out to around 43 miles (70 kilometers). The far larger ATACMS missiles can engage threats out to 186 miles (300 kilometers) depending on the variant. To be sure, a Ukrainian military acquisition of either the M270 or the HIMARS presents clear benefits. The most immediate of these would be fielding a new artillery rocket system that is in production and has a well-established supply chain in place in the West. From a tactical perspective, MLRS and HIMARS are likely to be generally more accurate systems, even with unguided rockets, than any of the rocket artillery systems that are currently in Ukrainian service. The fact that the same launcher can fire ATACMS gives it additional flexibility and a true long-range standoff precision capability beyond the limitations of traditional MRLS. At the same time, various factors could impose limitations on the utility of any M270s or M142 delivered to Ukraine, especially early on in their service. For instance, precision-guided 227mm rockets and ATACMS missiles are not ideally employed in mass volleys against broad area targets, such as the enemy armor or artillery formations that Ukrainian forces are staring down in the Donbas region. Any stocks of guided munitions that get sent along with the launchers could very well be small in quantity, at least initially, anyway. It is not hard to imagine that they would be employed very selectively in instances where the extended range and ability to hit pinpoint targets could be best exploited, with more traditional rockets still providing massed fires against hostile forces. In a pinch, the M30/31s can be used against massed targets, and less rockets are needed to accomplish the intended effects due to their precision, but the precious nature of these weapons would likely only see them used in that manner during dire circumstances. It's also not clear from CNN's report or any other sources how willing or able the U.S. government would be to send guided 227mm rockets or ATACMS missiles, to begin with. The technology inside those weapons, as well as the highly-automated launcher itself, could prompt concerns about operational security risks in the event they might be captured by Russian forces. The U.S. military has notably transferred a number of 155mm M777A2 towed howitzers to Ukrainian forces already, but without the networked digital fire control system that is present on those weapons in American service. This also means that those howitzers cannot employ precision-guided shells and limits how quickly and accurately they can engage a target or shift focus to another. It's also worth noting that there are, at least presently, the only unguided rockets available for the MLRS and HIMARS are loaded with cluster munitions warheads. The submunitions in these warheads, M77 or M85 Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM) depending on the exact variant, have a long history of questionable reliability. Unexploded submunitions can present serious hazards to the safe movement of friendly forces, as well as enemy units, not to mention innocent bystanders. U.S.-supplied rockets loaded with cluster munitions might raise political, as well as pragmatic issues for Ukraine. The Russian military has been actively criticized for its often indiscriminate employment of cluster munitions, as well as other weapons, in the conflict so far. At the same time, Ukrainian forces have reportedly used their own cluster munitions in the fighting. To date, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States remain among the countries that have declined to sign an international agreement that prohibits the production, stockpiling, and employment of certain cluster munitions. Questions of the political optics aside, without precision-guided rockets, let alone ATACMS missiles, MLRS and HIMARS would not necessarily offer the Ukrainian military significant new artillery capabilities over the MRLs it has in service now. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:28:30 PM EDT
[#23]
Russia is bluffing but their bluff is only halfway called. ATACMS would call the other half.
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:29:00 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gunner226: I have trouble wrapping my head around people being okay with Ukraine giving up territory. I can't help but equate it to my house: My neighbor decides he wants my house so one day he and his family kick in my front door and start killing my family. He manages to get through my living room, dining room and kitchen, but I stop him at the entrance to the hall and we're all barricaded in the bedrooms, and we're more or less at a stalemate. About that time the police show up, and tell me that if he's willing to let me have my kitchen back, I should just let him keep my living room and dining room. And then they insinuate that if I DON'T accept those terms, that any further death is my fault because I could have stopped the fighting, but chose not to. Fuck that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gunner226: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/politics/zelensky-ukraine-war.html WASHINGTON — Three months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are quietly debating the inevitable question: How does this end? In recent days, presidents and prime ministers as well as the Democratic and Republican Party leaders in the United States have called for victory in Ukraine. But just beneath the surface are real divisions about what that would look like — and whether “victory” has the same definition in the United States, in Europe and, perhaps most importantly, in Ukraine. In the past few days alone there has been an Italian proposal for a cease-fire, a vow from Ukraine’s leadership to push Russia back to the borders that existed before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, and renewed discussion by administration officials about a “strategic defeat” for President Vladimir V. Putin — one that would assure that he is incapable of mounting a similar attack again. At their heart lies a fundamental debate about whether the three-decade-long project to integrate Russia should end. At a moment when the U.S. refers to Russia as a pariah state that needs to be cut off from the world economy, others, largely in Europe, are warning of the dangers of isolating and humiliating Mr. Putin. ... Very good article with a lot more; unsurprisingly Germany/France/Italy are being dicks, while the US may be overly optimistic. I have trouble wrapping my head around people being okay with Ukraine giving up territory. I can't help but equate it to my house: My neighbor decides he wants my house so one day he and his family kick in my front door and start killing my family. He manages to get through my living room, dining room and kitchen, but I stop him at the entrance to the hall and we're all barricaded in the bedrooms, and we're more or less at a stalemate. About that time the police show up, and tell me that if he's willing to let me have my kitchen back, I should just let him keep my living room and dining room. And then they insinuate that if I DON'T accept those terms, that any further death is my fault because I could have stopped the fighting, but chose not to. Fuck that. Thats a great analogy, and basically is whats being proposed. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:37:43 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/politics/zelensky-ukraine-war.html WASHINGTON — Three months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are quietly debating the inevitable question: How does this end? In recent days, presidents and prime ministers as well as the Democratic and Republican Party leaders in the United States have called for victory in Ukraine. But just beneath the surface are real divisions about what that would look like — and whether “victory” has the same definition in the United States, in Europe and, perhaps most importantly, in Ukraine. In the past few days alone there has been an Italian proposal for a cease-fire, a vow from Ukraine’s leadership to push Russia back to the borders that existed before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, and renewed discussion by administration officials about a “strategic defeat” for President Vladimir V. Putin — one that would assure that he is incapable of mounting a similar attack again. At their heart lies a fundamental debate about whether the three-decade-long project to integrate Russia should end. At a moment when the U.S. refers to Russia as a pariah state that needs to be cut off from the world economy, others, largely in Europe, are warning of the dangers of isolating and humiliating Mr. Putin. ... Very good article with a lot more; unsurprisingly Germany/France/Italy are being dicks, while the US may be overly optimistic. Why can't western leaders point to the Budapest memo and demand Russia honor its commitments? Why do all the western leaders tacitly accept Russian aggression and expansionism? Just call it out - Russia must live under international law, respect its treaty agreements, and withdraw to its own borders as they existed in 1994. 
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:37:51 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Yes, that's exactly what Russia will say. But they know they can't throw nukes. Putin and his cronies want to be rich and powerful. If they start throwing nukes, there's a very high probability they lose everything. Launching nukes would be an act of suicide, an they know it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: The real nightmare is if Russia controls territory enough that they are able to officially annex it and declare it Part of Russia. At which point they will frame any attempt at counter attack / liberations as an Invasion of Russia... They have made previous mention that they would consider any attempt at retaking Crimea as an Invasion of Russia which could (actually) see the deployment of nuclear weapons, as opposed to the normal saber rattling. Thats the real risk of an Armstice / cease fire / allowing Russia to control territory. Yes, that's exactly what Russia will say. But they know they can't throw nukes. Putin and his cronies want to be rich and powerful. If they start throwing nukes, there's a very high probability they lose everything. Launching nukes would be an act of suicide, an they know it. Really, at the root, this whole war has little to do with Russia, and everything to do with Russia’s elites, with Puin at the top. Ukraine was supposed to be a new profit center for Putin and the oligarchs. Any benefit the land grab would have had for Russia as a whole and its citizens would just be a bonus. More wealth was the goal. That’s why attacks Putin and the Oligarchs personally is so important. His people losing prestige, freedom to globetrot, taking their yachts and homes abroad… all of that is punishing the people who hoped to gain the most, and is the most effective presure. Make those fuckers have to stay in Russia, and not be part of the global elite’s power. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:40:06 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tomislav: Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tomislav: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By GTLandser: JFC people, fucking relax. How far was the Russian advance to seize Severodonetsk? 10-15km? It's 250km to Dnipro. So at their present rate of advance, they'll get there in...18 months? It is foolish to fight for every km of ground. The Ukrainians will do what any military would do when faced with a numerical disadvantage avoid encirclement and withdraw to the next defensible piece of terrain, and/or shorten and consolidate their lines until any numerical advantage is mitigated. The Russians have proven completely incapable of sustaining deep advances into Ukrainian territory, and every advance creates a vulnerable flank. This has been done in warfare since the time of sharp sticks. The Ukrainians will be fine. Agreed If someone wants to fight an area defense, and fight for every square inch of terrain, that's an option. This looks like a mobile defense. UA Infantry are attriting tanks and UAVs are attriting everything, while the Russians burn up artillery and the UA infantry fall back. The idea would be for the defenders to counterattack and regain the ground when a vulnerability opens up. Its really 1917 German tactics 101 from the Western front, where fighting for every square inch under the threat of superior enemy artillery would get you to lose lots of people for nothing. IF we hear of a failed Ukrainian tank counterattack and IF we see pictures of hundreds of Ukrainian wrecks, start worrying. We're not close to that point. Despite the various “sky is falling” posts, these posts have it. Ukraine is fighting a mobile defense-in-depth. They have the territory to trade for time and Russian KIAs. There are many, many examples of competent armies behaving foolishly for political reasons. Germany on the Eastern Front, with Hitler’s insane orders for “No retreat” is a prime example. Germany could’ve preserved much more of their army and ultimately extracted greater costs from the Russians with strategic retreats. Instead they frequently held in unfavorable conditions and got wrecked. It should be noted that Mariupol may be the only time that’s happened to the Ukrainians. Russia is moving forward at a snail’s pace and taking significant losses to do so. No significant encirclements of field forces (besides Azov) have happened. That should tell you something. Plus hints from todays ISW assessment: The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia, specifically around Melitopol, has been reinforced by a battalion using outdated T-62 tanks, confirming earlier Ukrainian reports that Russian forces are cobbling together battalions with obsolete T-62 tanks to compensate for equipment losses. Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. I firmly believe tanks don’t ever actually contact each other. No video evidence in this giant war. How many active MBT vs active MBT kills in the whole war? |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:53:34 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Yobro512: I firmly believe tanks don’t ever actually contact each other. No video evidence in this giant war. How many active MBT vs active MBT kills in the whole war? You seem upset that ATGM systems, artillery and AT mines are doing the needful, and Putin and Zelenskyy aren't providing you with the kind of combat you'd prefer to watch, in glorious drone 4K HD? Maybe a tipping point has been reached in 21st century warfare in which MBTs will never, ever contact each other again, unless someone screwed the pooch tactically? |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:54:30 PM EDT
[#29]
T62 master strategy:
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VA, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:54:34 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Why can't western leaders point to the Budapest memo and demand Russia honor its commitments? Why do all the western leaders tacitly accept Russian aggression and expansionism? Just call it out - Russia must live under international law, respect its treaty agreements, and withdraw to its own borders as they existed in 1994. Exactly. NATO accepting is basically making themselves obsolete. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:55:49 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: T-62 vs M-60 battles filmed by drones is exactly what 2022 needs. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: Originally Posted By weptek911: Let's find some M-48 and M-60s to add to the mix! T-62 vs M-60 battles filmed by drones is exactly what 2022 needs. Maybe the Turks can cut a few M-60s loose. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:56:28 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Yobro512: I firmly believe tanks don’t ever actually contact each other. No video evidence in this giant war. How many active MBT vs active MBT kills in the whole war? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Yobro512: Originally Posted By Tomislav: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By GTLandser: JFC people, fucking relax. How far was the Russian advance to seize Severodonetsk? 10-15km? It's 250km to Dnipro. So at their present rate of advance, they'll get there in...18 months? It is foolish to fight for every km of ground. The Ukrainians will do what any military would do when faced with a numerical disadvantage avoid encirclement and withdraw to the next defensible piece of terrain, and/or shorten and consolidate their lines until any numerical advantage is mitigated. The Russians have proven completely incapable of sustaining deep advances into Ukrainian territory, and every advance creates a vulnerable flank. This has been done in warfare since the time of sharp sticks. The Ukrainians will be fine. Agreed If someone wants to fight an area defense, and fight for every square inch of terrain, that's an option. This looks like a mobile defense. UA Infantry are attriting tanks and UAVs are attriting everything, while the Russians burn up artillery and the UA infantry fall back. The idea would be for the defenders to counterattack and regain the ground when a vulnerability opens up. Its really 1917 German tactics 101 from the Western front, where fighting for every square inch under the threat of superior enemy artillery would get you to lose lots of people for nothing. IF we hear of a failed Ukrainian tank counterattack and IF we see pictures of hundreds of Ukrainian wrecks, start worrying. We're not close to that point. Despite the various “sky is falling” posts, these posts have it. Ukraine is fighting a mobile defense-in-depth. They have the territory to trade for time and Russian KIAs. There are many, many examples of competent armies behaving foolishly for political reasons. Germany on the Eastern Front, with Hitler’s insane orders for “No retreat” is a prime example. Germany could’ve preserved much more of their army and ultimately extracted greater costs from the Russians with strategic retreats. Instead they frequently held in unfavorable conditions and got wrecked. It should be noted that Mariupol may be the only time that’s happened to the Ukrainians. Russia is moving forward at a snail’s pace and taking significant losses to do so. No significant encirclements of field forces (besides Azov) have happened. That should tell you something. Plus hints from todays ISW assessment: The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia, specifically around Melitopol, has been reinforced by a battalion using outdated T-62 tanks, confirming earlier Ukrainian reports that Russian forces are cobbling together battalions with obsolete T-62 tanks to compensate for equipment losses. Yea, this is going great for the Russian forces. Weird that in 2022 we may see Leopard 1A4(?) vs T-62 battles. I firmly believe tanks don’t ever actually contact each other. No video evidence in this giant war. How many active MBT vs active MBT kills in the whole war? There was one amazing video of a tank duel in the rubble of bombed out city; the UA tank fired through a series of shattered highrises and killed a russian tank. It was spectacular. Thats the only tank video I've seen. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 10:59:23 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By oswald01: Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth. As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas. A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime. Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire. Holy fucking shit. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:01:29 PM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:09:16 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: You seem upset that ATGM systems, artillery and AT mines are doing the needful, and Putin and Zelenskyy aren't providing you with the kind of combat you'd prefer to watch, in glorious drone 4K HD? Maybe a tipping point has been reached in 21st century warfare in which MBTs will never, ever contact each other again, unless someone screwed the pooch tactically? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Circuits: Originally Posted By Yobro512: I firmly believe tanks don’t ever actually contact each other. No video evidence in this giant war. How many active MBT vs active MBT kills in the whole war? You seem upset that ATGM systems, artillery and AT mines are doing the needful, and Putin and Zelenskyy aren't providing you with the kind of combat you'd prefer to watch, in glorious drone 4K HD? Maybe a tipping point has been reached in 21st century warfare in which MBTs will never, ever contact each other again, unless someone screwed the pooch tactically? Has there ever been a filmed tank duel? Ever? We might be coming to a point where none will ever be filmed. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:09:20 PM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:21:44 PM EDT
[#37]
Any word on how the switchblades are doing?
It was all OMG Switchblades are gonna change the war! But I haven't see anything about them. Maybe I missed it, I don't know but have any of y'all heard anything? |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:30:03 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By oswald01: Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth. As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas. A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime. Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire.  
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:32:35 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BigGrumpyBear: Any word on how the switchblades are doing? It was all OMG Switchblades are gonna change the war! But I haven't see anything about them. Maybe I missed it, I don't know but have any of y'all heard anything? I've seen one or two videos of them being used, but that's about it. |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:34:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR]
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Thats a great analogy, and basically is whats being proposed. Because it isnt a fucking house. And its a shitty analogy. This is a war. In the Ukraine. In WWI the Germans came up with this idea, they were going to park their troops in the trenches and shoot Brits with machine guns. The Brits went over the top and got slaughtered. But the Germans found out their casualties were high. Why so high? Because prior to the attack they found out that the prep fire barrage were blowing away German infantry. The thought was, well, what if we don't put our people in the front line? Well, if the front line is thinned out, then every attack the British will gain a few hundred yards. But it doesn't matter because THEY WILL GAIN IT ANYWAY BECAUSE THEY HAVE A TON OF ARTILLERY LINED UP. The only question is whether you want to pack your troops in a tight place in the impact area. If I were the Russians, I would be earnestly hoping you pack all your infantry in trenches and fight for every inch. I will line up my big guns and pound you. Parking your infantry in the front lines to get wiped out by Russian artillery is what the Russians want. The idea is called mobile defense, or elastic defense. You put your infantry in the lines, but thin. You pound the attackers with artillery. When the attacker does prep fire, he is mostly hitting air because there isn't a lot of infantry there. Where are they? In the back. And later they will counterattack. And Take The Ground Back. If you were at some place like Gettysburg, with its ridges, or Bastogne, with its road junction, and possession of that terrain gives you a big advantage and you can stack bodies because of that terrain, then hold it. That is now an area defense. Nothing wrong with that. But if you hold that ground, it better be very valuable because the enemy artillery WILL pound you. SO the advantage of the ground better be more then the disadvantage of the enemy artillery, and it isnt. But, METT-T, the Russians have a shit ton of artillery and the ground isn't really tactically useful, its open fields. The Russians are pounding mostly empty space, and the Ukrainians are killing tanks with artillery and UAVs, and as best I can tell the Ukrainian tanks are not around in large numbers, which indicates that they will eventually wait for the Russians to lose lots of men per yard, then counterattack and take their land back. We could also argue that the Ukrainians are training people, they have untrained tank crews, and it takes time to do that, so they are buying time as next month they will have a much more capable tank force then today. SO it is better to win next month, then lose tomorrow. A mobile elastic defense, also known as defense in depth, is a boxer, facing a bigger opponent, who is staying in the fight, wearing out his opponent with blows, dodging haymakers, whittling him down. He will attack when he can, not in the first round when its stupid and suicidal. You can hope and pray and rationalize that he goes toe to toe with a puncher, much bigger than him, in the first round. That will go badly. Here is the old manual https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/3-90/ch10.htm |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:39:55 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: Holy fucking shit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: Originally Posted By oswald01: Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth. As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas. A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime. Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire. Holy fucking shit. lol, drugs are bad, guess he didnt get the message |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:41:49 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BigGrumpyBear: Any word on how the switchblades are doing? It was all OMG Switchblades are gonna change the war! But I haven't see anything about them. Maybe I missed it, I don't know but have any of y'all heard anything? yes videos are out of them striking targets.. they are killing orcs |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:43:10 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: @HecklerKoch_USP Yea I agree with your assessment. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By : Originally Posted By AROKIE: There will come a time that the Influx of advanced weapons will cease from European countries if russia takes those regions and declares an end to there special operation. Of course Ukraine will still try and take them back but with alot less backing and equipment. @AROKIE I believe you're partially correct with respect to countries like The Netherlands, France, etc. who are farther from the fight and may not be as keen to continue to spend the money necessary for a proxy war. However, countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Romania and others who are on Russia's doorstep likely have a much longer lasting appetite. I don't see many of these countries ceasing aid a year from now. For the countries above the greater concern is that they won't be able to sustain the same level of support they've given thus far, for the mere fact the tempo of equipment depletion is stunningly high, to the point that even US supplies have seen a double-digit percentage drop in some instances. But I fully expect at least those countries and some others will continue to provide as much support as they can for the foreseeable future, including providing heavy service depots for their equipment (as is being done today), as well as providing training grounds, as well as trainers, in NATO safe havens. Ukraine's defeat or victory is highly significant to their own national security interests. Now, I would also argue the US is unlikely to pull out anytime soon. Regardless of whether you look at this as a righteous war of democracy or a push by the defense industry, the Dems and Republicans, and especially Biden, are all aligned on making Russia/Putin hurt. I don't see that changing until the next president is elected, at the soonest. A protracted war like you've described is ultimately in Ukraine's interest. Each day Ukraine's army is growing in the number of trained soldiers due to its mobilization. Meanwhile, Russia is losing material and men at significant rates. I believe as the defender, Ukraine's willingness to bleed is higher than Russia's. I don't expect Putin is willing to lose his entire army in Ukraine in this multi-year war of attrition you've described, leaving him only with conscripts and some obliterated land in Donbass as his prize. @HecklerKoch_USP Yea I agree with your assessment. Yeah, I've said from the beginning that my biggest fear is the fecklessness of American and western European leaders. You can't trust any of them. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:46:08 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Great analogy, I don't understand that thinking either. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Gunner226: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/us/politics/zelensky-ukraine-war.html WASHINGTON — Three months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America and its allies are quietly debating the inevitable question: How does this end? In recent days, presidents and prime ministers as well as the Democratic and Republican Party leaders in the United States have called for victory in Ukraine. But just beneath the surface are real divisions about what that would look like — and whether “victory” has the same definition in the United States, in Europe and, perhaps most importantly, in Ukraine. In the past few days alone there has been an Italian proposal for a cease-fire, a vow from Ukraine’s leadership to push Russia back to the borders that existed before the invasion was launched on Feb. 24, and renewed discussion by administration officials about a “strategic defeat” for President Vladimir V. Putin — one that would assure that he is incapable of mounting a similar attack again. At their heart lies a fundamental debate about whether the three-decade-long project to integrate Russia should end. At a moment when the U.S. refers to Russia as a pariah state that needs to be cut off from the world economy, others, largely in Europe, are warning of the dangers of isolating and humiliating Mr. Putin. ... Very good article with a lot more; unsurprisingly Germany/France/Italy are being dicks, while the US may be overly optimistic. I have trouble wrapping my head around people being okay with Ukraine giving up territory. I can't help but equate it to my house: My neighbor decides he wants my house so one day he and his family kick in my front door and start killing my family. He manages to get through my living room, dining room and kitchen, but I stop him at the entrance to the hall and we're all barricaded in the bedrooms, and we're more or less at a stalemate. About that time the police show up, and tell me that if he's willing to let me have my kitchen back, I should just let him keep my living room and dining room. And then they insinuate that if I DON'T accept those terms, that any further death is my fault because I could have stopped the fighting, but chose not to. Fuck that. Great analogy, I don't understand that thinking either. Normal people like you and I and most in this thread pluss all my friends see it the exact same way. Not thinking like we do puts you in the corner with Henry Kissinger, someone who would sell out his own mother... |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:46:14 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: Holy fucking shit. Indeed. Sometimes I start to doubt that there are really Russian trolls here, but then we get a gem like that to let me know the struggle is real. |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:49:18 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead: What a babe.
Lord have mercy! The Lord is my shepherd! He know what I want! |
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:52:41 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: Holy fucking shit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LoBrau: Originally Posted By oswald01: Excellent analysis. As well, the long game needs to be factored in. Putin is hoping through the process of de-natzification after hostlities end, whatever is left of Ukraine will seek to become a free standing nation, neutral (not a NATO member) with a minimal military that does not threaten Russia and seeks economic growth. As Putin himself pointed out, Ukraine's living standard as part of the USSR was something like 3 times than that under the Western imposed oligarchs which only got worse after the 2014 coup. The huge impact of the 2014 coup was to bring the Nazis to the forefront both in political power and military power. At the start of the Russian SMO, about one half of Ukraine's military strength, 100,000 men, were in Nazi units who did not report to the Ukraine Military high command. These Nazi units were deployed in the East bordering the Donbas. A primary Russian goal was to destroy the Ukraine Nazi units facing the Donbas with Mariupol being their headquarters. The primary military goal of the feint aspect of the initial movement toward Kiev was to draw away or at least minimize support for the Nazi units in the East and South. The political goal was to make an effort to present support for the regular Ukraine military to stage a coup. In addition, Putin could use this domestically to garner support. The Russian people see Ukrainians more as cousins so to speak rather than foreign enemies. That is, too heavy a hand initially would have played to foreign propaganda. Nevertheless, throughout the SMO Russia has sought to minimize civilian casualties not least because so far in the territory of the SMO the bulk of civilians are pro-Russian as opposed to the pro-West Kiev regime. Finally, Putin can always point to this feint on Kiev as proof that the initial approach of the SMO was for it to be carried out with as little blood as possible. In the years ahead this could pay great dividends. The Russians are no "pikers" when it comes to expanding their empire. Holy fucking shit. I actually read it and laughed. Retard or troll...take yer pick. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:56:09 PM EDT
[#48]
Wow!
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Posted: 5/26/2022 11:58:56 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cobradriver: I actually read it and laughed. Retard or troll...take yer pick. Get both. Retard Troll. |
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Posted: 5/27/2022 12:09:28 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: yes videos are out of them striking targets.. they are killing orcs Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear: Any word on how the switchblades are doing? It was all OMG Switchblades are gonna change the war! But I haven't see anything about them. Maybe I missed it, I don't know but have any of y'all heard anything? yes videos are out of them striking targets.. they are killing orcs Thanks! I'll dig round some more for some links. |
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