ISW assessment for June 13th.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-13

The Russians are murdering women, children, and old people... And the troll we are talking about believes in capitulation. Idiotic.
They are stealing personal property. Stealing farmers crops.
They are splitting families up, shipping these people in occupied zones all around Russia and stealing their passports.
They are forcing conscription in occupied zones of all men, able or not, and using them as cannon fodder.


The Russians are animals.

You don't surrender. You don't stop fighting when your very survival depends on it.

There are only 1 outcome, Ukrainian victory.

Putin can't die fast enough.

Holy shit

Didn't they get the memo? That tanks are obsolete? Dinosaurs? Things of days gone by?

Your knowledge of conscription is pretty damn inaccurate.

The US registered something like 30 - 40 million men in WWII and drafted 10 million.

They sure as hell were sent to the front.

As an aside, the first draftee division to see combat, the 88th, performed very well and had several books written about it; the lesson learned seems to be if there are good leaders and good training, conscripts perform fine.

By those numbers the Ukrainians could put one million men in the line.

Generally speaking if there is widespread pro war sentiment then draftees perform fine.

We could discuss the Israeli army, if you like.  They are not all volunteer.

I’d prefer to go with many artillery rounds vice many draftees but it looks like they will need both.

In WW2 they stopped voluntary enlistments at one point because it was slowing them down.

Giving up territory is no solution.

And its not going to be better in 5 years, its going to be worse. I don't have much faith in russia being brought to its knees economically.

The war has shown that russia is a threat - they are willing to slaughter as many people as necessary (theirs and others) to get what they want. Plus they have nukes.

Ukraine is willing and able to field an army to take on the orcs - give them everything necessary to win that fight.

Letting russia drag this out and continue to steamroll smaller countries is what will get the U.S. into a real shooting war.

There's so much wrong with this post, it's hard to know where to start. First, the EU's GDP has nothing whatsoever to do with their military abilities. Why? Because there is no EU military. Duh. If the US continues to support Ukraine and they are successful in tossing the Russian swine out of their country entirely (including Crimea), who do you think that will benefit the most? Perhaps a country that has to import things like titanium? That would be the US and Ukraine could eventually supply our needs. Who do you think will be the beneficiary of all the oil and gas in Ukraine? Primary would be Europe with the US a close second. Russia doesn't control the east or the south in Ukraine. They're doing all they can just to control their own forces much less anything else. Finally, Russia isn't selling more oil now than they were. They're selling much, much less. The only thing keeping them afloat is the price of oil has risen sharply since the invasion. But, their production is falling off and they have no way of generating more.

Taking Russia off the international chessboard will be a boon for the entire world but more so for the US.

This afternoon, in the Izium direction in the Kharkiv region, an anti-aircraft missile division of the Cold War destroyed a Ka-52 combat helicopter of Russian invaders. The helicopter crashed into the temporarily occupied territory between the settlements of Sulyhivka and Dovhenke.

???????? ????? ????? ?? ?????????? ????????, ?? ?? ??????????, ???????-???????? ???????? ???????????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ??-52 ?????????? ???????????. ?????????? ???? ?? ????????? ????????? ????????? ??? ?????????? ???????? ????????? ?? ?????????.https://t.co/fUVm2MwnpU

IgorGirkin  (@GirkinGirkin) June 13, 2022

JUNE 12, THE AIR FORCE CONGRATULATED THE OCCUPANTS WITH "RUSSIA DAY" BEATEN SU-34!
--------------------------------------
On June 12, around ten in the morning in the area of Izyum in Kharkiv region, anti-aircraft missile forces of the Air Force of Ukraine struck a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber.

Russian planes worked as a pair, attacking the positions of Ukrainian defenders. After hitting the Ukrainian air defense zone, one of the enemy aircraft changed course, and the pilots of the other decided to try their fate.

“Let them be happy! "-replied the zenítniki and knocked down the cheeky " drought", thus congratulating the occupiers on " Russia Day "!

The plane crashed into the temporarily occupied territory. Did the pilots survive the information is being clarified.

In addition, on June 12, an anti-aircraft missile unit shot down Russian BPLA Orlan-10. And the Air Force Impact Aviation has made several avíanaalʹotív in hostile positions of the occupation troops.

The task of powerful strikes on the cluster of enemy equipment, the living force of the enemy. As a result of the air strike, the warehouse of missile and artillery was destroyed.

🇺🇦

https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/393708592797095

Needs to be repeated. This is exactly the way I look at it. Great post!!!

The good guys lose 100% of the battles they do not fight.

This is a pretty good episode for you "Speak The Truth" regulars. He says he's had the conversation about a thousand times whether he should go join the Ukraine foreign legion. I figured. I expect it is a hard decision feeling the need to go do what is right, versus also figuring the consequences of your choice if things go bad.

I just worked a 12-hour shift, and I still have the energy to come here for news of Ukraine and to refute cowards enabling or advocating for the genocide of another nation.

If Ukraine wants 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks and 2,000 armored vehicles and this is what they say they need to defeat Russia, then fucking give them everything on the list! How much money have we spent to deter and defeat Russia for most of the past century? To finally break and end those bastards once and for all for the price of 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks and 2,000 APCs would seem like the bargain of a lifetime!

Between the surplus M109 self propelled howitzers out there, the hundreds of M198 towed 155mm howitzers we must have sitting in storage in depots and the FH-70 155mm towed howitzers in Italy, Germany, the UK and Japan, it should be no problem whatsoever finding them an additional 1,000 artillery pieces. Why are we even discussing it? Do it!

Finding 500 tanks seems like a major challenge. But is it really? We have a fleet of roughly 2400 M1A2 variants in active service today. There's at least 3,000 other Abrams variants sitting in storage at a depot out in California. I would assume we could probably find 500 M1A1 variants among them. If these are even up to 1991 Persian Gulf War standards, they would still be better than 98% of the tanks Russia or Ukraine are fielding in this war. Load 500 of those fuckers and some spare parts on a train, get them to the coast and onto cargo ships, and sail their heavy asses to Europe.

As for armored vehicles, as many M113s, various wheeled 8x8s, MRAPS, as well as BMP-1 and 2 and BTR wheeled armored vehicles as there are out there in the world, it should be no problem coming up with enough for Ukraine's needs. How many M2 Bradley IFVs do we have sitting in storage? I would imagine there would be as many of those as we have stored M1 tanks.

If Ukraine has the potential to expand their army to upwards of 800,000 or even 1 million total troops with the new trainees that will be coming online, those guys are going to need something to fight with. I would imagine Ukraine is running extremely thin on spare tanks and fighting vehicles, as most of the factories that build and restore them have been destroyed by Russian missile strikes. To be effective, these new troops are going to need more than rifles and RPGs. They will need tanks, armored vehicles and artillery. Ukrainians have shown they are incredibly willing to do the fighting. And they are doing it damn well. But without committed support from the west, they won't be able to continue to stand up to Russia.

Some may question the value of going all in on this. Some may not see it as worth the investment. But I cannot understand why. One of the greatest things that could happen on the world stage would be a resurgent and aggressive Russia being defeated in their attempt at conquest of another nation. Not only does that weaken Russia and perhaps break them for good, but it also sends a message to the rest of the world that this sort of shit will no longer be tolerated. That might keep some other nation such as China from attempting something similar a decade down the road.

But I fear the longer this drags on, the less support Ukraine will receive from the west. It seems the Germans and French are already getting wobbly. Now the damn NATO Secretary General himself is suggesting that perhaps Ukraine should cede territory for peace. Where is this weak, limp-wristed bullshit coming from? Ukraine should cede nothing to those murdering sons a bitches! They are thugs. Scum. Garbage. They should be killed and their equipment destroyed to the point they can no longer continue the war and have to leave, the bunch of useless fucking orcs they are. I don't mind my tax dollars providing the tools for Ukraine to do this with. They are doing us and the rest of the world a huge favor. Russia must lose this war. Otherwise, you can bet they'll try for something else in the near future. And the next time, we may end up directly involved in the fighting. So end this now while we have the opportunity.

I hate that the world doesn't really care about Russian attacks on civilians, which started on Day 1 of the invasion, and continue every single day.

Germany's Scholz needs to be questioned about this every single day, along with any other leader who's dragging their feet on delivering military hardware.


FVP.

Real hero. Never would I have thought it was an arf issue.

Maybe your knowledge of the conscription he is talking about in Ukraine is damn inaccurate. There is a Russian narrative being pushed with a few videos of people being arrested and put into forced conscription, illegal to leave the country if you're a military aged male. The narrative being Zelensky won't give up and the only people fighting are these draft dodgers that have been arrested. That isn't the case. I would wager the vast majority of Ukrainian combatants are volunteer or willingly obliged their conscription. Which means as a people Ukrainians are fighting for their nation, willingly and eagerly. Which was a rebuttal to someone saying the war is only being prolonged because Zelensky doesn't want to give up and he is responsible for the destruction and death of all those people. That isn't true, if that was the case he wouldn't have anyone fighting for him.

The point I was making is that those guys, the ones caught hiding in car trunks trying to run across a border to avoid conscription, probably aren't performers. They definitely don't make the bulk of the Ukrainian military. Maybe the bulk is made up of draftees that willingly obliged their nation when they were called up but the bulk definitely is not made of draft dodgers being drug to war. Maybe I didn't do a good job of delineating the difference. The comparison I was making with every nation facing existential destruction using forced conscription would have been better stated as penal battalions.

To finalize my point, would you rather serve with a squad that was made up of willing draftees or a squad that was made up of people caught trying to escape the country to avoid their forced conscription. Which would likely be a more effective fighting force? Which do you think the bulk of Ukrainian military is made up of? Same with all the other examples you provided of drafted persons in war. The willing or the unwilling.

Jesus. It seems like the first design parameter was to make the thing look terrifying. It reminds me of the various kill-bots from movies. But it's bigger and more dangerous. It honestly looks like something that would morph into another shape so that it could chase you down inside of a building.

Isn't that double angle on the Germany tanks makena weak spot between the chassis and the turret.

Norseman, I would be surprised if your dog was a liberal.....

The faster way to get functioning vehicles and weapons to Ukraine would be to divert some of our stocks from the National Guard or even the AD forces. Congress critters in places like PA, OH, and AL should be thrilled to then have the refurb activities in Lima and Anniston regenerate those ones you are referring to, presently doing nothing but providing shade for snakes in CA.

Why aren't we doing that? I honestly think this admin does want Ukraine to win. They offered for VZ to leave the country at the start of the invasion. It's a shame.

I'm genuinely curious why you feel Ukraine vs Russia would be much worse in 5 years? Five years of upgrading the military and looking for actual allies would seem to help Ukraine a lot. In fact a big reason Ukraine isn't NATO was the unrest in the Donbass region, if you begrudgingly hand that over now, you eliminate that roadblock.

I certainly an not sitting here advocating for Ukraine or any other country to prostrate themselves before Russia, but I think it is at least worth a little consideration. What losses will Ukraine take, in manpower, civilians, economic damage, etc, in the remainder of the current war? What are their actual chances of retaking the lost Eastern regions? (I don't know the answer, we can all speculate but only UKR knows their actual losses and current and projected strength levels). If they retake it, what quality will it be at this point? IE, if they are successful how "worth it" short term will the retaken lands be in relation to the expense in regaining them?

Giving up anything is obviously no one's first choice, though I think a few months ago if we said Ukraine could end up with a Finnish Winter War style result, it would have been welcomed a lot more. The reality of all this likely only Ukraine knows, or at least knows a lot more than we all do.

One thing I do agree with 1stID on is that the reality might be that the best path for Ukraine might not necessarily be the path we would like. Ukraine has been getting an incredible amount of foreign military aid in terms of PGATM, weapons, and likely intelligence. However if this cannot be increased or even maintained long term, they may have a problem.

I don't think someone attempting to take an, in their opinion, broader and "realistic" approach should be lambasted quite as much as it is in this thread. 1stID might be completely wrong in his projections but it looks really bad seeing everyone gang up on him and call him a paid Russian troll.



Sure they are a threat, however beyond nukes, the past few months have really shown their lack of ability to project and supply force beyond their borders. Nukes are the ultimate wild card.

Ukraine fighting a years-long war of attrition against a larger foe is not a plan for victory.

And a disrupted economy, no use of ports or shipping does not work well long term. Thus the need to strike hard and the need for the tools to do it.

russia's definition of victory and the style with which they achieve it are both very different from the West. Giving them more time allows them to fight on their terms.

By their definition they have taken a lot of ground from 2014-2022 and will continue to grind away until they are unapologetically stopped.

It's not that he had an unpopular opinion - It's that he had no facts or engaged in any form of logic or constructive dialogue.  There were ad hominem attacks on graphs (can you even do that?), complete inversions of facts, straw-man arguments, red herrings, it was a mess.  It's a troll's script to create mayhem and havoc.

If someone wants to actually argue a position that one thing, but to just spew ill-though out talking points is not really something that's going to go down well here from what I've seen.

I've wished the same thing. Heck, I'm sure I'm a fringe on this, but I'd just Lend-Lease them 1st Armored, 1st Cav, and the 3ID wholesale - personnel and all. ;)

Saving Ukraine, one post at a time.

Congratulations.

France is wayyyy more legit than Germany when it comes to EU security and suppling Ukraine.

That's a cool looking tank.

I want to point out, the coax MG is a Browning M2. This thing is immortal.