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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:35:29 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Nope. I'll wait and see. If it was a missile, it was a pretty big one. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Any takers on this bet? Nope. I'll wait and see. If it was a missile, it was a pretty big one. Same here, very curious to see what the evidence of the submerged section looks like. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:40:40 PM EDT
[#2]
Wouldn't a missile attack on the bridge leave a radar track?
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:41:52 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: LOL a fucking ATG? What is this, 1944? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: Originally Posted By Prime:
LOL a fucking ATG? What is this, 1944? I mean... I wouldn't say no...   Attached File |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:42:17 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO:
Northwest of Kherson. Thats my wife's home town. She is on a bunch of the local telegram groups, so I've seen some pictures already. The top floor got hit pretty good, if it was occupied, there will be casualties. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:44:28 PM EDT
[#5]
Don't run over the landmines laying out the road..
 Failed To Load Title |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:45:34 PM EDT
[#6]
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:46:50 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Don't run over the landmines laying out the road..  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iksmu2qOV34(Other soldier watching the guy just throw mines out in the open road) “That will never work dude….” |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:47:05 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Anyone heard from the mustache guy? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CPT_CAVEMAN: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Anyone heard from the mustache guy? @CPT_CAVEMAN His Instagram story is active. He posted today. His account is yankee.in |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:48:06 PM EDT
[#9]
The one video angle in the bridge looked like an aerial explosion high and right, not the truck, but who know with the quality of security cameras.
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:54:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#10]
ISW assessment for October 12th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12 Russian forces may have brought Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated personnel to occupied areas in Ukraine to train Russian troops in the use of Shahed-136 drones. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 12 that Russian forces brought an unspecified number of Iranian instructors to Dzankoi in Crimea and Zalizniy Port and Hladivtsi in Kherson Oblast to teach Russian forces how to use Shahed-136 attack drones.[4] The Resistance Center stated that the Iranian instructors directly control the launch of drones on civilian targets in Ukraine, including in Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts.[5] The IRGC is notably the primary operator of Iran‘s drone inventory, so these Iranian instructors are likely IRGC or IRGC-affiliated personnel.[6] |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:55:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: MADMAXXX]
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: The one video angle in the bridge looked like an aerial explosion high and right, not the truck, but who know with the quality of security cameras. But I'm not an expert on this it's just something I remember hearing about a video of a different explosion. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 9:56:25 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Don't run over the landmines laying out the road.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iksmu2qOV34 Attached File |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:05:56 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: There was speculation that the reason the Russians are pushing the VBIED theory so hard is that the bridge was protected by S-400. I don't know if that's true. S-400 systems are still fairly rare, but the bridge is a national priority for Russia so it's plausible that they had an S-400 in the area. That would be embarrassing Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Any takers on this bet? That would be embarrassing Even more so if it was an organic UKR system. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:06:02 PM EDT
[#14]
 Ukraine turns abandoned Russian weaponry on Putin''s forces | ITV News |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:06:27 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe34H9cWYAApuDJ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 I'm wondering what the size and quality of those DT's are. I'm thinking cover the assault (after crushing their artillery batteries with accurate counter-battery) with artillery on the trenches, smoke the space between the trench line and the obstacles, hit the 1st lines of obstacles with MICLIC (are they still in inventory?) (Assuming they are a big enough boom to move/destroy the DT's), roll through the gaps with plow and roller tanks, drop some armored bridges and plow gaps into the obstacle trenches, and then you are in amongst the crunchies. Bring mounted infantry along to clear down the trenchlines. I'd want a shit ton of arty falling on the Orc's heads to keep the ATGM's from popping out of that smoke though. I'd want a couple of rehearsals for the guys doing it too before going live. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:16:29 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: ISW assessment for October 12th. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12 |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:21:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Dead Iranians would be a huge bonus. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: ISW assessment for October 12th. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12 This could be the second round. After the initial delivery of the Shahed drones, there was a strike that was said to have killed Iranian advisors that were training the Russian units how to use them. The fact that the Ukrainian govt mentions the three towns that these advisors are in means they are watching who is involved intensely and where they move. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:23:56 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: LOL a fucking ATG? What is this, 1944? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: Originally Posted By Prime:
LOL a fucking ATG? What is this, 1944? Well, when they set up the Ukrainian Legion after the war , they'll have plenty of obsolete guns to put on display outside the Legion halls!
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:25:02 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Dead Iranians would be a huge bonus. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: ISW assessment for October 12th. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-12 Ukraine claimed they killed around 20 of them last week hitting a barracks/launch point. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:26:41 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: I don't think it's cash, but we have given about 4 billion in financial aid to Ukraine to keep society functioning. I think 10 billion is committed. 44 Billion in total aid, military, humanitarian and financial committed so far. Not one penny wasted. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:29:41 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: Maybe @R0N could spitball about where this is at in the long process of fielding. Does that report mean that Lockheed has won a contract for the army to procure them or is developing them under their own funding to prepare a bid for an army procurement? Disclaimer: I’m in the TRL 0 world so this process is all stuff I usually glass over trying to wrap my head around when it comes up… Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freiheit8472: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Double The Range Rockets For HIMARS One Step Closer To Production It's going to be a bit of time and testing, even for us to get good numbers of them. Maybe @R0N could spitball about where this is at in the long process of fielding. Does that report mean that Lockheed has won a contract for the army to procure them or is developing them under their own funding to prepare a bid for an army procurement? Disclaimer: I’m in the TRL 0 world so this process is all stuff I usually glass over trying to wrap my head around when it comes up… Lockheed Martin plans to finish qualification testing and start production in 2023. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:30:44 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/41727/047159EB-EF8F-4CDE-BEB4-6C6BC1A31174_jpe-2561110.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: Originally Posted By realwar: Don't run over the landmines laying out the road.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iksmu2qOV34https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/41727/047159EB-EF8F-4CDE-BEB4-6C6BC1A31174_jpe-2561110.JPG 
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:36:55 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/41727/047159EB-EF8F-4CDE-BEB4-6C6BC1A31174_jpe-2561110.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: Originally Posted By realwar: Don't run over the landmines laying out the road.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iksmu2qOV34https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/41727/047159EB-EF8F-4CDE-BEB4-6C6BC1A31174_jpe-2561110.JPG  |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:40:37 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: HIRM-2 was, allegedly, like 6 months from IOC back in Feb ‘22. 500 kg warhead. ATACMs is like half that in terms of warhead size. I’m still leaning on the SVBIED method given the size of the damage. One day the truth will come out. Looks like Chuck is all-in on the missile theory.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: Originally Posted By Waldo: Originally Posted By HIPPO:
Any takers on this bet? Nope. I'll wait and see. If it was a missile, it was a pretty big one. HIRM-2 was, allegedly, like 6 months from IOC back in Feb ‘22. 500 kg warhead. ATACMs is like half that in terms of warhead size. I’m still leaning on the SVBIED method given the size of the damage. One day the truth will come out. Looks like Chuck is all-in on the missile theory.
I have an open mind. But part of the circumstantial argument for a truck bomb is the destruction of the fuel train at the same time. That was either intentional or astronomically good luck and my bet is on intentional. What is the likelihood that could be achieved via ballistic missile? |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:41:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: LOL a fucking ATG? What is this, 1944? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cryo_tech: Originally Posted By Prime:
LOL a fucking ATG? What is this, 1944? Used in a defensive role it would be entirely effective against anything but the frontal armor of an MBT. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:47:18 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Best decision of their now much-extended lives. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 10:48:53 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Dead Iranians would be a huge bonus. |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:01:05 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: India really needs to face some sanctions for this, boycotts, their H1B Visa holders sent home, something massive. Sanctions? For an abstention? Really?  Look at all of the votes on this recent Ukraine measure (setting aside it is the useless and ineffectual UN for one minute): the vote divide was all the "usual suspects" (DPRK and Iran and Venezuela)...and then all the Central/South American and African countries that rely on grain exports to feed themselves.  And let's not fool ourselves about the unity or homogeneity of a country the size of India: the people who are grabbing our H1B visas are among their best, but there are millions of unwashed masses that their home political class is worried about. That's unkind and unfair and it sucks, but...that's demographics and politics. Some of you dudes need to re-calibrate your concept of foreign aid (aka, "wasting money on foreign shitholes", which it often is): why would we even need to build a wall if Nicaragua or Guatemala weren't open-air prisons? You can send soldiers to keep a lid on things, you're just not going to want to look very closely at how those sausages are made. HOWEVER: if you can't see how the Ukrainian people have a different situation and mentality, then I don't know what to tell you. I think they have shown themselves to be Western-oriented and upright people, harking back to the kind of attitudes we admired during the Battle of Britain and D-Day. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:09:09 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Like to see the GD mental gymnastics for this Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Originally Posted By ludder093: Dead Iranians would be a huge bonus. The Iranians need a nickname like the orcs have 
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:11:40 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By QUACK32: The Iranians need a nickname like the orcs have How about goat fucking retards that wipe their ass with their hands? |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:14:06 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: Moar
The defense industrial base, while underfed, poorly led, sadly managed, should consider this a light fucking warm-up before shit kicks-off in the INDOPACOM AOR. I hope that the COCOMs and the joint chiefs are paying attention, pounding the table, and doing the work. @HIPPO You used a lot of funny words there...and I salute you! Unngga Unngga, Hooh Hooh! Apes, Together Stronk! "We, the unwilling, led by the unable, have now done so much, with so little, for so long, that we are now capable of accomplishing anything with nothing"!
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USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:32:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#32]
The Economist | The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies Article below: Click To View Spoiler |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:37:49 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: How about goat fucking inbred retards that wipe their ass with their hands? |
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USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:39:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#34]
Ukrainian intelligence denies role in Crimea Bridge bombing This story just keeps on giving. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:39:44 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Russian TV calls for hypersonic missiles to be used on NATO defense ministers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk7i6IM963gSolovyov needs to die in a fire. Seriously suggesting that they start a war with NATO?  Do it, punks. I want to see Russia's oil & gas production drop to zero in 24 hours. They'd have to stack firewood to get through the winter.
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:48:21 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/41727/047159EB-EF8F-4CDE-BEB4-6C6BC1A31174_jpe-2561110.JPG Oh my God. I think I woke some people up laughing so hard.
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:48:36 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By weptek911: India really needs to face some sanctions for this, boycotts, their H1B Visa holders sent home, something massive. Yup! |
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USA
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:50:25 PM EDT
[#38]
WSJ | How Ukrainian Strategy Is Running Circles Around Russia’s Lumbering Military |
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Posted: 10/12/2022 11:56:27 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bc42: I have been lurking this thread for the past ~2750 pages or so, and finally caught up to everything tonight. A few thoughts, for anyone who cares about my .02: - I have had my paradigm completely rattled by this entire conflict. I find myself agreeing with hipster liberal college kids who I probably have nothing else in common with as far as core values, and I find myself struck on an almost daily basis by the incredibly bad takes from people I used to hold some level of respect for in popular media or politics. That has been a real lesson for me. - Big thank you to people who are trawling social media for the killer primary/secondary sources on this conflict. This is one of the greatest Internet forum threads I’ve ever followed because of you all. - I have no idea where this conflict is going, and that is scary as hell. For the most part, a lot of the shooting conflicts of my lifetime have been pretty contained, but this is so ridiculously volatile on a macro scale. I wish we had better leaders in the west to see this through to an end. Not that I disagree with the west’s approach so far - I think mostly all the right decisions are being made- but I have no confidence in Biden et al to take the reigns if this gets truly out of control. - The world needs to begin working on denuclearization now or in the near future, and it needs to start with Russia. Bad actors like Putin cannot be allowed to hold the world hostage because they hold nuclear capabilities. This conflict, along with many that precede it and many that will follow it, are the result of allowing that threat to persist. If there is going to be a peaceful end to this conflict, that has to be a part of it. No debate can be had otherwise IMO. Anyway, have a good night. Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if the Ukrainians would have retained about 50 nukes. Mankind will not be able to put the Nuclear Genie back in its bottle. |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 12:00:47 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: Don't run over the landmines laying out the road.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iksmu2qOV34Turns out... yes, vatniks are that fucking dumb. |
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USA
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Posted: 10/13/2022 12:01:28 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#41]
Strikes happening in Kyiv.
Reports coming in about critical infrastructure getting hit. |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 12:02:21 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Cuba is trying to get the US to send help to put their electrical grid back together after the hurricane. I'm sure the Glorious Worker's Paradise will fix it. It says so right on their posters and little red books! |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 12:05:49 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bc42: - The world needs to begin working on denuclearization now or in the near future, and it needs to start with Russia. Bad actors like Putin cannot be allowed to hold the world hostage because they hold nuclear capabilities. This conflict, along with many that precede it and many that will follow it, are the result of allowing that threat to persist. If there is going to be a peaceful end to this conflict, that has to be a part of it. No debate can be had otherwise IMO. That's a non-starter for many, or at best it's what happened with Ukraine (and look how that turned out), they came out of the breakup of the USSR with a massive stockpile and a desire be not be the USSR anymore so they agreed to get rid of them in return for a "guarantee" of their security and borders...... The method to create nukes is known and it isn't that difficult. The cat is out of the bag. The best we can do is keep a large enough deterrent and develop effective counter-measures while trying to restrict proliferation to countries that aren't batshit crazy (hence all the focus on Iran and North Korea). |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 12:14:48 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MarkNH: That's a non-starter for many, or at best it's what happened with Ukraine (and look how that turned out), they came out of the breakup of the USSR with a massive stockpile and a desire be not be the USSR anymore so they agreed to get rid of them in return for a "guarantee" of their security and borders...... The method to create nukes is known and it isn't that difficult. The cat is out of the bag. The best we can do is keep a large enough deterrent and develop effective counter-measures while trying to restrict proliferation to countries that aren't batshit crazy (hence all the focus on Iran and North Korea). Especially for a nation which has nuclear reactors for electrical power, and at least a 1940s-era manufacturing and technological base, nuclear weapons are impossible to prevent. Only their national will can prevent a nation with those basics from going nuclear. There are a dozen or so countries with the materials, expertise and technological proficiency to go nuclear over the space of a month or two if they so chose. |
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CT, USA
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Posted: 10/13/2022 1:08:50 AM EDT
[#45]
So I know I said a few pages back that I was leaning towards boat-vbied. I’m pitching a new theory.
Ukrainian SOF operating deep in Russian territory stole an Iksander or Scud variant and launched from there to hit the Kerch bridge. Explains Russians rabid attempts to cover up |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 1:10:04 AM EDT
[#46]
I'm a few pages behind and will get more behind this weekend at cola...
1. I can't find anything in the chemical weapons treaty, Hague convention, etc, about making enemy troops cold. In the depths of winter, can Ukraine drone/mortar yeet dewar flasks of liquid nitrogen at a bunker? I don't think nitrogen counts as a asphyxiant weapon, being the majority of regular atmospheric air. The Russians are far too proud of general winter, make them cold. 2. I'm a mediocre strategic thinker, but Ukraine has a pile of S300s, the Russians are using them as shitty surface to surface missiles...why can't Ukraine send their S300s after the Kerch bridge repair operation and make it hot for the crane crews. |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 1:14:46 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By p3590: I'm a few pages behind and will get more behind this weekend at cola... 1. I can't find anything in the chemical weapons treaty, Hague convention, etc, about making enemy troops cold. In the depths of winter, can Ukraine drone/mortar yeet dewar flasks of liquid nitrogen at a bunker? I don't think nitrogen counts as a asphyxiant weapon, being the majority of regular atmospheric air. The Russians are far too proud of general winter, make them cold. 2. I'm a mediocre strategic thinker, but Ukraine has a pile of S300s, the Russians are using them as shitty surface to surface missiles...why can't Ukraine send their S300s after the Kerch bridge repair operation and make it hot for the crane crews. It's a long flight from any Ukrainian held territory to where the bridge is. A long flight, even with a missile. |
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CT, USA
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Posted: 10/13/2022 1:20:11 AM EDT
[Last Edit: KELBEAST]
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fadedsun: It's a long flight from any Ukrainian held territory to where the bridge is. A long flight, even with a missile. Why does it have to be from Ukraine held territory? 
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IL, USA
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Posted: 10/13/2022 1:30:48 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RolandofGilead:
This is one of the scum bag talking heads on Russian state TV that every day now calls for the destruction of Ukraine. He hadn’t sold his soul to Putin yet, that’s all. He’s actually right, too…. Russia should have been accumulating “soft power” to persuade their neighbors they had changed. If they had done that Russia might actually have some friends. |
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Posted: 10/13/2022 1:34:18 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By p3590: I'm a few pages behind and will get more behind this weekend at cola... 1. I can't find anything in the chemical weapons treaty, Hague convention, etc, about making enemy troops cold. In the depths of winter, can Ukraine drone/mortar yeet dewar flasks of liquid nitrogen at a bunker? I don't think nitrogen counts as a asphyxiant weapon, being the majority of regular atmospheric air. The Russians are far too proud of general winter, make them cold. 2. I'm a mediocre strategic thinker, but Ukraine has a pile of S300s, the Russians are using them as shitty surface to surface missiles...why can't Ukraine send their S300s after the Kerch bridge repair operation and make it hot for the crane crews. Ukraine doesn't have any S300 complexes in range of the Kerch bridge. |
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