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uxb Creepy Little Beast Joined Jan 2002 Posts 26443 EE 100% (328) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 7:56:35 AM EDT [#1] Spooky
	You should refurb one of those boats uxb was on when he got a lift from some guys who weren't really there to where he wasn't going from where he never was. - Kitties with Sigs

Prime

Advocatus Diaboli

Joined Apr 2009
Posts 17562
EE 100% (7)

VA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:01:31 AM EDT

[#2]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

“The FSB is like the Game of Thrones,” says a former FSB counterintelligence officer. “You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests.” https://t.co/pDVm00hG5Q
The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 13, 2022

The Economist | The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies
Article below:
Click To View Spoiler

The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies

As they take greater risks, they are getting caught

Oct 9th 2022

VIKTOR MULLER FERREIRA was a young Brazilian with impressive credentials and a big break. Fresh from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, an incubator of talent for America’s national security elite, he had secured an internship at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. But when he landed in Amsterdam in April, he was quickly deported to Brazil. Mr Ferreira was, in fact, Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, an intelligence officer working for the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service.

Mr Cherkasov was a so-called illegal, of the sort depicted in the popular television series “The Americans”—an officer dispatched abroad under an elaborate foreign identity, often for life. In a four-page document obtained by Dutch intelligence, an aide-memoire of sorts, his cover story was laid out in painstaking detail, down to childhood crushes and favoured restaurants. Mr Cherkasov is now languishing in a Brazilian prison, sentenced to 15 years.

When the Soviet KGB was dissolved in 1991, it reappeared as the FSB, a domestic security service, and the SVR, a foreign intelligence agency. The GRU has endured in one form or another since 1918. These “special services” bask in the fearsome reputation of their tsarist and Soviet forebears. But they emerge from the war in Ukraine with that reputation, and their networks, in tatters. The explosion which damaged the Kerch bridge on October 8th was only the latest security foul-up; Ukrainian operatives are also suspected of having orchestrated a car bombing in Moscow in August which killed the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist ideologue, according to the New York Times.

Intelligence failure lies at the heart of the war. The FSB, the lead agency for protecting Russian secrets and spying in Ukraine, bungled both tasks in spectacular fashion. It failed to stop America from obtaining, and then publicising, Russian war plans for Ukraine—the most dramatic deployment of intelligence since America’s exposure of Soviet missiles on Cuba in 1962. Worse still, it was the FSB’s own conspicuous preparations for war—including plans to kill dissidents and install a puppet government—that helped convince American and British officials that the Russian military build-up was not a bluff.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to go to war in the first place also owed much to the FSB’s bungling. The agency’s Fifth Service, responsible for ex-Soviet countries, expanded its Ukraine team dramatically in July 2021, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. Yet its officers largely spoke to those Ukrainians who were sympathetic to Russia and exaggerated the scale of their agent networks in the country, giving the Kremlin the false impression that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse.

Confirmation bias was only part of the problem. Intelligence agencies, like armies, reflect the societies they come from. At their best, Russian spies can be bold and resourceful. “We’ve consistently been surprised by the cleverness and relentlessness of some of the things that they do,” says John Sipher, who served as the CIA’s station chief in Moscow and later ran its Russia operations. “They have really, really smart people.”

But that talent co-exists with venality and dysfunction. Intelligence is embellished at each stage as it rises up the chain, with bad news stripped out before it reaches the Kremlin. A Western official describes how, in one GRU unit, officers are thought to have skimmed off 30% of the salaries of the agents they recruited. That figure rose to 50% as the officers gradually had to spend more time padding out reports with information culled from the internet.

The great strength of Russian intelligence is its sheer scale. Yet only a fraction of its personnel do useful spywork. It was FSB officers who poisoned Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, with Novichok, a nerve agent, in Siberia in 2020. Nothing encapsulates the dual ethos of repression and larceny better than the fact that the FSB’s most sought-after position is the chief of the Fourth Service, a division responsible for “economic security”. Its officers are placed in key companies, giving them ample opportunity to enrich themselves.

Infighting within the agencies, and with other government departments, is rife. “The FSB is like the Game of Thrones,” says Maxim (not his real name), a former FSB counterintelligence officer. “You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests.”

The SVR, a descendant of the First Chief Directorate, the KGB’s flagship foreign intelligence arm, considers itself more urbane and polished than its Russian sister services. “Our view was that the SVR was far more effective and sophisticated than the GRU,” recalls Mr Sipher. But the war has left it battered. Western countries have expelled over 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers since the spring, mostly SVR officers, eliminating nearly half of those operating under diplomatic cover in Europe. Those remaining face heightened scrutiny by local security services.

A recent report by SUPO, Finland’s intelligence service, notes that Russian intelligence officers there have mostly been “severed” from their networks. It warns that Russian spies are resorting to alternative means. One is cyber-espionage. Another is the recruitment of foreigners within Russia. A third, which SUPO does not mention, is to lean more heavily on illegals like Mr Cherkasov. But that comes at a cost. The pressure on illegals is driving them to take greater risks than usual, according to European intelligence officials.

In March, for instance, Poland arrested Pablo González, a Spanish-Russian journalist also known as Pavel Rubtsov, on suspicion of working for the GRU. A Ukrainian source says he was attempting to enter Ukraine to access a cyber unit in one of the country’s intelligence agencies (Mr Rubtsov denies the charges). Mr Cherkasov might have targeted the ICC because it had opened an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine. Their exposure will be keenly felt. Illegals are hugely expensive to train and deploy. The SVR is thought to have 50 to 100 deployed illegals, and the GRU only 10 to 20, according to sources familiar with those programmes.

In many ways, Russian spies face the same professional challenges as their Western counterparts. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cross borders under multiple names, given the ubiquity of biometric controls, or build a digital backstory that stands up to scrutiny. Paying and communicating with agents is another challenge. But whereas Western spies have learnt how to blend into the noise, Russian ones have been slow to adapt. Illegals still use the dated technique of appropriating the identity of a dead baby (familiar to readers of “The Day of the Jackal”, a novel published in 1971.) Sloppiness abounds. Data leaked from a Russian food-delivery service in March exposed the names of FSB and GRU officers having food delivered to their respective headquarters.

That would not matter so much if Russian intelligence were not under intense scrutiny. Ever since the GRU’s attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal, a former officer, in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, Western allies have shared increasing amounts of intelligence on Russian spooks. Though it was Dutch intelligence that exposed Mr Ferreira, the operation was a joint endeavour that relied on America, Ireland and others.

There has been little accountability for all this bungling. Western officials say they cannot confirm rumours that Sergei Beseda, the head of the FSB’s Fifth Service, was arrested in Russia in March. There are no proven job losses at senior level. That reflects the privileged status of the siloviki—securocrats—in the Russian state. Mr Putin does not trust his spies—he is said to be bypassing Alexander Bortnikov, the FSB’s chief, and talking to department heads—but it would be unwise to pick a fight with them just as his regime is experiencing an upswell of popular discontent over the drafting of hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to fight in Ukraine. On October 8th Mr Putin even placed the FSB in charge of security for the Kerch bridge.

The result is likely to be more of the same. “You have a deep tradition of intelligence professionalism,” says Sir John Sawers, a former chief of MI6, “and like a gangrene on top of it is this growing corruption.” Maxim, the former FSB officer, agrees. “Back in the 1990s and 2000s there was a KGB touch to it. We stayed under the radar,” he says. The breaking point for him was when new graduates of the FSB academy were spotted driving a luxury Mercedes around Moscow. Ukraine is an opportunity to rebuild, he says. “They need to substitute this money world with something bigger. I’m not sure how they are going to do it.”■

View Quote

Great read.

“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione

SoCalExile

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Joined Nov 2008
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Posted: 10/13/2022 8:09:06 AM EDT

[#3]

In Kyiv region russians had mined a beehive, and bees saved people from the explosion. The owners opened the hive where grenade was, but it didn't go off, because in 6 months the striped sappers filled the igniters with honey and the pins didn't pop out.#RussiaisATerroistState pic.twitter.com/3PLrTABuYh
— ???????? ?????? \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 ? (@VictoriaYastrub) October 12, 2022

Attached File

God's grace is not cheap; it's free.

Mal_means_bad

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Joined Oct 2008
Posts 27221
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Posted: 10/13/2022 8:19:07 AM EDT

[Last Edit: Mal_means_bad] [#4]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

“The FSB is like the Game of Thrones,” says a former FSB counterintelligence officer. “You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests.” https://t.co/pDVm00hG5Q
The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 13, 2022

The Economist | The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies
Article below:
Click To View Spoiler

The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies

As they take greater risks, they are getting caught

Oct 9th 2022

VIKTOR MULLER FERREIRA was a young Brazilian with impressive credentials and a big break. Fresh from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, an incubator of talent for America's national security elite, he had secured an internship at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. But when he landed in Amsterdam in April, he was quickly deported to Brazil. Mr Ferreira was, in fact, Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, an intelligence officer working for the GRU, Russia's military intelligence service.

Mr Cherkasov was a so-called illegal, of the sort depicted in the popular television series "The Americans" an officer dispatched abroad under an elaborate foreign identity, often for life. In a four-page document obtained by Dutch intelligence, an aide-memoire of sorts, his cover story was laid out in painstaking detail, down to childhood crushes and favoured restaurants. Mr Cherkasov is now languishing in a Brazilian prison, sentenced to 15 years.

When the Soviet KGB was dissolved in 1991, it reappeared as the FSB, a domestic security service, and the SVR, a foreign intelligence agency. The GRU has endured in one form or another since 1918. These "special services" bask in the fearsome reputation of their tsarist and Soviet forebears. But they emerge from the war in Ukraine with that reputation, and their networks, in tatters. The explosion which damaged the Kerch bridge on October 8th was only the latest security foul-up; Ukrainian operatives are also suspected of having orchestrated a car bombing in Moscow in August which killed the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist ideologue, according to the New York Times.

Intelligence failure lies at the heart of the war. The FSB, the lead agency for protecting Russian secrets and spying in Ukraine, bungled both tasks in spectacular fashion. It failed to stop America from obtaining, and then publicising, Russian war plans for Ukraine the most dramatic deployment of intelligence since America's exposure of Soviet missiles on Cuba in 1962. Worse still, it was the FSB's own conspicuous preparations for war including plans to kill dissidents and install a puppet government that helped convince American and British officials that the Russian military build-up was not a bluff.

Vladimir Putin's decision to go to war in the first place also owed much to the FSB's bungling. The agency's Fifth Service, responsible for ex-Soviet countries, expanded its Ukraine team dramatically in July 2021, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. Yet its officers largely spoke to those Ukrainians who were sympathetic to Russia and exaggerated the scale of their agent networks in the country, giving the Kremlin the false impression that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse.

Confirmation bias was only part of the problem. Intelligence agencies, like armies, reflect the societies they come from. At their best, Russian spies can be bold and resourceful. "We've consistently been surprised by the cleverness and relentlessness of some of the things that they do," says John Sipher, who served as the CIA's station chief in Moscow and later ran its Russia operations. "They have really, really smart people."

But that talent co-exists with venality and dysfunction. Intelligence is embellished at each stage as it rises up the chain, with bad news stripped out before it reaches the Kremlin. A Western official describes how, in one GRU unit, officers are thought to have skimmed off 30% of the salaries of the agents they recruited. That figure rose to 50% as the officers gradually had to spend more time padding out reports with information culled from the internet.

The great strength of Russian intelligence is its sheer scale. Yet only a fraction of its personnel do useful spywork. It was FSB officers who poisoned Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, with Novichok, a nerve agent, in Siberia in 2020. Nothing encapsulates the dual ethos of repression and larceny better than the fact that the FSB's most sought-after position is the chief of the Fourth Service, a division responsible for "economic security". Its officers are placed in key companies, giving them ample opportunity to enrich themselves.

Infighting within the agencies, and with other government departments, is rife. "The FSB is like the Game of Thrones," says Maxim (not his real name), a former FSB counterintelligence officer. "You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests."

The SVR, a descendant of the First Chief Directorate, the KGB's flagship foreign intelligence arm, considers itself more urbane and polished than its Russian sister services. "Our view was that the SVR was far more effective and sophisticated than the GRU," recalls Mr Sipher. But the war has left it battered. Western countries have expelled over 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers since the spring, mostly SVR officers, eliminating nearly half of those operating under diplomatic cover in Europe. Those remaining face heightened scrutiny by local security services.

A recent report by SUPO, Finland's intelligence service, notes that Russian intelligence officers there have mostly been "severed" from their networks. It warns that Russian spies are resorting to alternative means. One is cyber-espionage. Another is the recruitment of foreigners within Russia. A third, which SUPO does not mention, is to lean more heavily on illegals like Mr Cherkasov. But that comes at a cost. The pressure on illegals is driving them to take greater risks than usual, according to European intelligence officials.

In March, for instance, Poland arrested Pablo Gonz lez, a Spanish-Russian journalist also known as Pavel Rubtsov, on suspicion of working for the GRU. A Ukrainian source says he was attempting to enter Ukraine to access a cyber unit in one of the country's intelligence agencies (Mr Rubtsov denies the charges). Mr Cherkasov might have targeted the ICC because it had opened an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine. Their exposure will be keenly felt. Illegals are hugely expensive to train and deploy. The SVR is thought to have 50 to 100 deployed illegals, and the GRU only 10 to 20, according to sources familiar with those programmes.

In many ways, Russian spies face the same professional challenges as their Western counterparts. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cross borders under multiple names, given the ubiquity of biometric controls, or build a digital backstory that stands up to scrutiny. Paying and communicating with agents is another challenge. But whereas Western spies have learnt how to blend into the noise, Russian ones have been slow to adapt. Illegals still use the dated technique of appropriating the identity of a dead baby (familiar to readers of "The Day of the Jackal", a novel published in 1971.) Sloppiness abounds. Data leaked from a Russian food-delivery service in March exposed the names of FSB and GRU officers having food delivered to their respective headquarters.

That would not matter so much if Russian intelligence were not under intense scrutiny. Ever since the GRU's attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal, a former officer, in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, Western allies have shared increasing amounts of intelligence on Russian spooks. Though it was Dutch intelligence that exposed Mr Ferreira, the operation was a joint endeavour that relied on America, Ireland and others.

There has been little accountability for all this bungling. Western officials say they cannot confirm rumours that Sergei Beseda, the head of the FSB's Fifth Service, was arrested in Russia in March. There are no proven job losses at senior level. That reflects the privileged status of the siloviki securocrats in the Russian state. Mr Putin does not trust his spies he is said to be bypassing Alexander Bortnikov, the FSB's chief, and talking to department heads but it would be unwise to pick a fight with them just as his regime is experiencing an upswell of popular discontent over the drafting of hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to fight in Ukraine. On October 8th Mr Putin even placed the FSB in charge of security for the Kerch bridge.

The result is likely to be more of the same. "You have a deep tradition of intelligence professionalism," says Sir John Sawers, a former chief of MI6, "and like a gangrene on top of it is this growing corruption." Maxim, the former FSB officer, agrees. "Back in the 1990s and 2000s there was a KGB touch to it. We stayed under the radar," he says. The breaking point for him was when new graduates of the FSB academy were spotted driving a luxury Mercedes around Moscow. Ukraine is an opportunity to rebuild, he says. "They need to substitute this money world with something bigger. I'm not sure how they are going to do it."

View Quote

About a year ago some journalists realized that the GRU had been lazy and issued sequentially numbered passports to several dozen spies, so they started investigating people in the number range resulting in a series of articles unmasking several of them. For instance, there was a "Peruvian" woman living in Italy and banging NATO officers who moved to Russia in a hurry after the articles began appearing. Using image search they found she then used the same social media profile pic under her real name in Russia, so the journalists bought Moscow telephone records on the black market and found calls between her and officers in the GRU illegals program. Pretty humiliating for the GRU, and not too impressive of NATO counterintelligence either, if you think about it.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Russian-spy-uncovered-when-GRU-used-consecutive-passport-numbers-reused-social-media-profile-pic/5-2580376/

general_cluster

Joined May 2019
Posts 443
EE 0% (0)

USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:34:02 AM EDT

[#5]

Quote History

Originally Posted By OBird:

It appears his “evidence” is the fact that the guardrail is sagging…right where the big fire was.

That’s from getting weakened by the large fire, not a “downward blast”. Even the rails / train wheels were deformed by that heat; you can bet a simple guardrail will too.

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Quote History

Originally Posted By OBird:

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

KERCH BRIDGE: Photos reveal downward blast damage on adjacent guardrails-- indicating the airburst of a ballistic missile warhead, not the surface detonation of a VBIED, as Moscow claims. When the submerged section is raised, it will reveal a neat penetration crater. pic.twitter.com/cJjamUHlC9
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

Any takers on this bet?

It appears his “evidence” is the fact that the guardrail is sagging…right where the big fire was.

That’s from getting weakened by the large fire, not a “downward blast”. Even the rails / train wheels were deformed by that heat; you can bet a simple guardrail will too.

you are correct.

I sat down with one of my guys that also handles fire investigations. We looked at all the media we could find on this and couldn't come up with much conclusive other than to say that the blast appeared to occur above the deck and was substantial in size. It took a lot to light those train cars off, they were on the order of 100 feet away from the NW bound lane and appeared to be carrying a fairly heavy fuel. The current photo and video evidence just isn't clear enough to make many other conclusive observations.

Mal_means_bad

Member

Joined Oct 2008
Posts 27222
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IN, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:34:33 AM EDT

[Last Edit: Mal_means_bad] [#6]

Russian screwup? Ukrainian flak trap? The new NATO SAMs?

The Times

Four Russian attack helicopters were shot down by Ukrainian forces in 18 minutes yesterday, officials in Kyiv said.

The country's general staff said the helicopters were attacked by missile units in southern Ukraine. They were all thought to be two-seat Ka-52s. It is unclear whether the crews ejected before they were shot down between 8.40am and 8.58am local time.

The helicopters were providing support for Russian troops. The general staff was seeking confirmation that another two Russian helicopters had been shot down about the same time. Ukraine says it has destroyed 234 Russian helicopters and 268 aircraft since the war began in February.

jebsofnga

Member

Joined Sep 2014
Posts 1459
EE 100% (3)

TN, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:36:20 AM EDT

[#7]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
About a year ago some journalists realized that the GRU had been lazy and issued sequentially numbered passports to several dozen spies, so they started investigating people in the number range resulting in a series of articles unmasking several of them. For instance, there was a "Peruvian" woman living in Italy and banging NATO officers who moved to Russia in a hurry after the articles began appearing. Using image search they found she then used the same social media profile pic under her real name in Russia, so the journalists bought Moscow telephone records on the black market and found calls between her and officers in the GRU illegals program. Pretty humiliating for the GRU, and not too impressive of NATO counterintelligence either, if you think about it.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Russian-spy-uncovered-when-GRU-used-consecutive-passport-numbers-reused-social-media-profile-pic/5-2580376/

View Quote

RceHeBo is still capable of putting sleepers out there, though. What's worse than that
is how State here in CONUS handles it. Lots of corruption at the top

Dextra gladius, laeva scutum, corpore honor

AlmightyTallest

Member

Joined May 2007
Posts 10612
EE 0% (0)

PA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:37:37 AM EDT

[#8]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AROKIE:

33 UAVs wonder if they are having luck knocking those shaheds down,

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Originally Posted By AROKIE:

Originally Posted By Schmigs:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe7g17MXgAAJIq0?format=png&name=900x900

33 UAVs wonder if they are having luck knocking those shaheds down,

They certainly are, the 6 helicopters are more than they thought they got yesterday.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

general_cluster Joined May 2019 Posts 444 EE 0% (0) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 8:37:49 AM EDT [#9] Quote History Originally Posted By Easterner: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/526834/IMG_20221013_124500_jpg-2561268.JPG Супер! View Quote I know i am being unreasonable, and they are far from the most important hardware, but i get a little sad on single digit tank days.

MostlyPeaceful

Member

Joined Jan 2021
Posts 749
EE 100% (3)

FL, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:38:37 AM EDT

[#10]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:
About a year ago some journalists realized that the GRU had been lazy and issued sequentially numbered passports to several dozen spies, so they started investigating people in the number range resulting in a series of articles unmasking several of them. For instance, there was a "Peruvian" woman living in Italy and banging NATO officers who moved to Russia in a hurry after the articles began appearing. Using image search they found she then used the same social media profile pic under her real name in Russia, so the journalists bought Moscow telephone records on the black market and found calls between her and officers in the GRU illegals program. Pretty humiliating for the GRU, and not too impressive of NATO counterintelligence either, if you think about it.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Russian-spy-uncovered-when-GRU-used-consecutive-passport-numbers-reused-social-media-profile-pic/5-2580376/

View Quote View All Quotes

View All Quotes

Quote History

Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

“The FSB is like the Game of Thrones,” says a former FSB counterintelligence officer. “You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests.” https://t.co/pDVm00hG5Q
The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 13, 2022

The Economist | The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies
Article below:
Click To View Spoiler

The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies

As they take greater risks, they are getting caught

Oct 9th 2022

VIKTOR MULLER FERREIRA was a young Brazilian with impressive credentials and a big break. Fresh from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, an incubator of talent for America's national security elite, he had secured an internship at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. But when he landed in Amsterdam in April, he was quickly deported to Brazil. Mr Ferreira was, in fact, Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, an intelligence officer working for the GRU, Russia's military intelligence service.

Mr Cherkasov was a so-called illegal, of the sort depicted in the popular television series "The Americans" an officer dispatched abroad under an elaborate foreign identity, often for life. In a four-page document obtained by Dutch intelligence, an aide-memoire of sorts, his cover story was laid out in painstaking detail, down to childhood crushes and favoured restaurants. Mr Cherkasov is now languishing in a Brazilian prison, sentenced to 15 years.

When the Soviet KGB was dissolved in 1991, it reappeared as the FSB, a domestic security service, and the SVR, a foreign intelligence agency. The GRU has endured in one form or another since 1918. These "special services" bask in the fearsome reputation of their tsarist and Soviet forebears. But they emerge from the war in Ukraine with that reputation, and their networks, in tatters. The explosion which damaged the Kerch bridge on October 8th was only the latest security foul-up; Ukrainian operatives are also suspected of having orchestrated a car bombing in Moscow in August which killed the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist ideologue, according to the New York Times.

Intelligence failure lies at the heart of the war. The FSB, the lead agency for protecting Russian secrets and spying in Ukraine, bungled both tasks in spectacular fashion. It failed to stop America from obtaining, and then publicising, Russian war plans for Ukraine the most dramatic deployment of intelligence since America's exposure of Soviet missiles on Cuba in 1962. Worse still, it was the FSB's own conspicuous preparations for war including plans to kill dissidents and install a puppet government that helped convince American and British officials that the Russian military build-up was not a bluff.

Vladimir Putin's decision to go to war in the first place also owed much to the FSB's bungling. The agency's Fifth Service, responsible for ex-Soviet countries, expanded its Ukraine team dramatically in July 2021, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. Yet its officers largely spoke to those Ukrainians who were sympathetic to Russia and exaggerated the scale of their agent networks in the country, giving the Kremlin the false impression that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse.

Confirmation bias was only part of the problem. Intelligence agencies, like armies, reflect the societies they come from. At their best, Russian spies can be bold and resourceful. "We've consistently been surprised by the cleverness and relentlessness of some of the things that they do," says John Sipher, who served as the CIA's station chief in Moscow and later ran its Russia operations. "They have really, really smart people."

But that talent co-exists with venality and dysfunction. Intelligence is embellished at each stage as it rises up the chain, with bad news stripped out before it reaches the Kremlin. A Western official describes how, in one GRU unit, officers are thought to have skimmed off 30% of the salaries of the agents they recruited. That figure rose to 50% as the officers gradually had to spend more time padding out reports with information culled from the internet.

The great strength of Russian intelligence is its sheer scale. Yet only a fraction of its personnel do useful spywork. It was FSB officers who poisoned Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, with Novichok, a nerve agent, in Siberia in 2020. Nothing encapsulates the dual ethos of repression and larceny better than the fact that the FSB's most sought-after position is the chief of the Fourth Service, a division responsible for "economic security". Its officers are placed in key companies, giving them ample opportunity to enrich themselves.

Infighting within the agencies, and with other government departments, is rife. "The FSB is like the Game of Thrones," says Maxim (not his real name), a former FSB counterintelligence officer. "You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests."

The SVR, a descendant of the First Chief Directorate, the KGB's flagship foreign intelligence arm, considers itself more urbane and polished than its Russian sister services. "Our view was that the SVR was far more effective and sophisticated than the GRU," recalls Mr Sipher. But the war has left it battered. Western countries have expelled over 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers since the spring, mostly SVR officers, eliminating nearly half of those operating under diplomatic cover in Europe. Those remaining face heightened scrutiny by local security services.

A recent report by SUPO, Finland's intelligence service, notes that Russian intelligence officers there have mostly been "severed" from their networks. It warns that Russian spies are resorting to alternative means. One is cyber-espionage. Another is the recruitment of foreigners within Russia. A third, which SUPO does not mention, is to lean more heavily on illegals like Mr Cherkasov. But that comes at a cost. The pressure on illegals is driving them to take greater risks than usual, according to European intelligence officials.

In March, for instance, Poland arrested Pablo Gonz lez, a Spanish-Russian journalist also known as Pavel Rubtsov, on suspicion of working for the GRU. A Ukrainian source says he was attempting to enter Ukraine to access a cyber unit in one of the country's intelligence agencies (Mr Rubtsov denies the charges). Mr Cherkasov might have targeted the ICC because it had opened an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine. Their exposure will be keenly felt. Illegals are hugely expensive to train and deploy. The SVR is thought to have 50 to 100 deployed illegals, and the GRU only 10 to 20, according to sources familiar with those programmes.

In many ways, Russian spies face the same professional challenges as their Western counterparts. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cross borders under multiple names, given the ubiquity of biometric controls, or build a digital backstory that stands up to scrutiny. Paying and communicating with agents is another challenge. But whereas Western spies have learnt how to blend into the noise, Russian ones have been slow to adapt. Illegals still use the dated technique of appropriating the identity of a dead baby (familiar to readers of "The Day of the Jackal", a novel published in 1971.) Sloppiness abounds. Data leaked from a Russian food-delivery service in March exposed the names of FSB and GRU officers having food delivered to their respective headquarters.

That would not matter so much if Russian intelligence were not under intense scrutiny. Ever since the GRU's attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal, a former officer, in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, Western allies have shared increasing amounts of intelligence on Russian spooks. Though it was Dutch intelligence that exposed Mr Ferreira, the operation was a joint endeavour that relied on America, Ireland and others.

There has been little accountability for all this bungling. Western officials say they cannot confirm rumours that Sergei Beseda, the head of the FSB's Fifth Service, was arrested in Russia in March. There are no proven job losses at senior level. That reflects the privileged status of the siloviki securocrats in the Russian state. Mr Putin does not trust his spies he is said to be bypassing Alexander Bortnikov, the FSB's chief, and talking to department heads but it would be unwise to pick a fight with them just as his regime is experiencing an upswell of popular discontent over the drafting of hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to fight in Ukraine. On October 8th Mr Putin even placed the FSB in charge of security for the Kerch bridge.

The result is likely to be more of the same. "You have a deep tradition of intelligence professionalism," says Sir John Sawers, a former chief of MI6, "and like a gangrene on top of it is this growing corruption." Maxim, the former FSB officer, agrees. "Back in the 1990s and 2000s there was a KGB touch to it. We stayed under the radar," he says. The breaking point for him was when new graduates of the FSB academy were spotted driving a luxury Mercedes around Moscow. Ukraine is an opportunity to rebuild, he says. "They need to substitute this money world with something bigger. I'm not sure how they are going to do it."

About a year ago some journalists realized that the GRU had been lazy and issued sequentially numbered passports to several dozen spies, so they started investigating people in the number range resulting in a series of articles unmasking several of them. For instance, there was a "Peruvian" woman living in Italy and banging NATO officers who moved to Russia in a hurry after the articles began appearing. Using image search they found she then used the same social media profile pic under her real name in Russia, so the journalists bought Moscow telephone records on the black market and found calls between her and officers in the GRU illegals program. Pretty humiliating for the GRU, and not too impressive of NATO counterintelligence either, if you think about it.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Russian-spy-uncovered-when-GRU-used-consecutive-passport-numbers-reused-social-media-profile-pic/5-2580376/

Don't be too sure that NATO CI didn't know. Identified threats are sometimes left in place for various reasons to include identifying control elements etc.. Arrests, detentions, expulsions are very often after those efforts have been exhausted.

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 8:46:54 AM EDT

[#11]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

I know, right?!

View Quote View All Quotes

View All Quotes

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

Originally Posted By OBird:

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

KERCH BRIDGE: Photos reveal downward blast damage on adjacent guardrails-- indicating the airburst of a ballistic missile warhead, not the surface detonation of a VBIED, as Moscow claims. When the submerged section is raised, it will reveal a neat penetration crater. pic.twitter.com/cJjamUHlC9
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

Any takers on this bet?

It appears his “evidence” is the fact that the guardrail is sagging…right where the big fire was.

That’s from getting weakened by the large fire, not a “downward blast”. Even the rails / train wheels were deformed by that heat; you can bet a simple guardrail will too.

I know, right?!

lol, I don't think it was a ballistic missile. One reason is even if it was the Ukrainian Hrim, I would think the main strike would be on the Railroad section, not centered on the road section even if it was an airburst.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

Ryan_Ruck Three full mags and my swingin' cod! Joined Jul 2006 Posts 33220 EE 100% (28) OH, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 8:47:20 AM EDT [#12] Quote History Originally Posted By Capta: Was he speaking to Russian conscripts, or GD? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quote History Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ludder093: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/114465/667a65c9a7291b29_png-2561252.JPG Was he speaking to Russian conscripts, or GD? Attached File

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 8:50:07 AM EDT

[#13]

Quote History

Originally Posted By anothermisanthrope:
Motorcycle racing stickers (Valentino Rossi) on a Ukrainian drone

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/486333/QVWMnCJChI0itLANwtZtP3HWeNNOuDTYmo6R-SBo-2561292.JPG

View Quote

I have a feeling this is part of Ukraines army of drones campaign, where you could ship your drones to them for use on the battlefield. God only knows some of the stuff that might have been sent to them.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

Mal_means_bad

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Posted: 10/13/2022 8:50:11 AM EDT

[#14]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA scouting team killed by \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Special Operations Forces (SSO) prob. somewhere in the east pic.twitter.com/2TnlVNHwV5
C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) October 13, 2022

Imagine doing reconnaissance in a Ford Fiesta (or whatever that might be) https://t.co/KNVJtRjHq1
Def Mon (@DefMon3) October 13, 2022

Imagine die-ing in a ford fiesta, in a foreign country......
NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) October 13, 2022

View Quote

Mines in plain sight being useful again - that recon team got ambushed when they slowed or stopped for visible mines in the road.

Attached File

Ryan_Ruck

Three full mags and my swingin' cod!

Joined Jul 2006
Posts 33221
EE 100% (28)

OH, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 8:51:29 AM EDT

[#15]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA scouting team killed by \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Special Operations Forces (SSO) prob. somewhere in the east pic.twitter.com/2TnlVNHwV5
C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) October 13, 2022

Imagine doing reconnaissance in a Ford Fiesta (or whatever that might be) https://t.co/KNVJtRjHq1
Def Mon (@DefMon3) October 13, 2022

Imagine die-ing in a ford fiesta, in a foreign country......
NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) October 13, 2022

View Quote

I think they watched too much Top Gear...

Top Gear Special - NAVY ASSAULT!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmEp9bBY5ds

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10615 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 8:54:20 AM EDT [#16] “Russian soldiers mobilized near Kherson killed the commander who prevented them from surrendering” — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10616 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 8:55:47 AM EDT [#17] I'll have to wait for Dimitri's translation, but wow. When the mother of a Russian soldier (and I won't joke about her looks) found out that her son was in captivity and she would not receive a new Lada. Comments are unnecessary here. pic.twitter.com/x6aXYqmNCc — NOËL \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10617 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:01:19 AM EDT [#18] Battles rage around Bakhmut- Russian forces launch wave after wave of frontal assaults. As of now Ukrainian forces hold positions and repel attacks. — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

K0UA Member Joined Jan 2022 Posts 818 EE 0% (0) MO, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:03:11 AM EDT [#19] Quote History Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: “Russian soldiers mobilized near Kherson killed the commander who prevented them from surrendering” — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022 View Quote Finally Ivan Conscriptovich wised up! Shoot your commanders and go home.

Mal_means_bad

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Posted: 10/13/2022 9:18:43 AM EDT

[#20]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Battles rage around Bakhmut- Russian forces launch wave after wave of frontal assaults.

As of now Ukrainian forces hold positions and repel attacks.
— WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022

View Quote

Everybody agrees that the Bakhmut offensive is stupid in general, but the Russians have to be facing a supply crisis of some degree after the Kerch Bridge explosion (and the attempt to deploy a couple hundred thousand hardly equipped mobilized men). This renewed attack reminds me of the artillery shell crunch after HIMARS started working over their ammo dumps, last thing the Russians did before their artillery fire fell by ~75% (or whatever) and their general offensive ground to a halt was to use up much of what they had left to pointlessly level some village in a show of strength, a bluff. Within a week the Ukrainians were talking about Russian artillery fire falling to roughly parity and not long after that the Ukrainians went on the offensive.

AWMCoalition Member Joined Feb 2008 Posts 1647 EE 0% (0) NV, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:27:04 AM EDT [#21] New photos of Crimean bridge were published. It’s visible that the second road is a bit wobbly \uD83E\uDD0F pic.twitter.com/vyIvvo3abP — Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) October 12, 2022 Base upon the photos here showing the second bridge deformed downward it had to be an airburts or VBIED.

klinc Member Joined Sep 2006 Posts 21165 EE 0% (0) FL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:27:52 AM EDT [#22] Quote History Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Battles rage around Bakhmut- Russian forces launch wave after wave of frontal assaults. As of now Ukrainian forces hold positions and repel attacks. — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022 View Quote Bodies got to be littering that area by now big time.

AWMCoalition

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Posted: 10/13/2022 9:34:09 AM EDT

[#23]

Quote History

Originally Posted By OBird:

It appears his “evidence” is the fact that the guardrail is sagging…right where the big fire was.

That’s from getting weakened by the large fire, not a “downward blast”. Even the rails / train wheels were deformed by that heat; you can bet a simple guardrail will too.

View Quote

The fire was on the rail bridge not the automobile bridge shown in these photos.

m24shooter

Is the big woman still here?

Joined Jan 2002
Posts 10115
EE 100% (15)

TX, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 9:42:02 AM EDT

[#24]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I'll have to wait for Dimitri's translation, but wow.

When the mother of a Russian soldier (and I won't joke about her looks) found out that her son was in captivity and she would not receive a new Lada.

Comments are unnecessary here. pic.twitter.com/x6aXYqmNCc
— NOËL \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) October 13, 2022

View Quote

Down, down, down in Goblintown.

¡Ahora sin chingas!

BigGrumpyBear

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Posted: 10/13/2022 9:42:49 AM EDT

[#25]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Notice the man running on fire.

A Russian 2S19 Msta-S SPG was destroyed by Ukrainian precision counter-battery fire in Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/dcmhCfY8Da
— NOËL \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) October 12, 2022

View Quote

Wow... he really hot footed it out of there!

Chaingun Indelible in the Hippocampus, the Sylvan Joined Nov 2000 Posts 90071 EE 100% (7) CA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:44:10 AM EDT [#26] Quote History Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://nypost.com/2022/10/12/idaho-army-veteran-dane-partridge-killed-fighting-in-ukraine/amp/ View Quote Prayers for the family he left This occurred yesterday, but bares repeating
	"We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared so we may always be free." Ronald Reagan 1984 "Mitch the democrat bitch" "democrat voter fraud works and it makes Republicans look stupid"

Chaingun

Indelible in the Hippocampus, the Sylvan

Joined Nov 2000
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EE 100% (7)

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Posted: 10/13/2022 9:45:38 AM EDT

[#27]

Quote History

Originally Posted By sq40:

Shit like that is damn near a permission slip for Putin.

View Quote View All Quotes

View All Quotes

Quote History

Originally Posted By sq40:

Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/france-won-t-deploy-nukes-if-russia-uses-them-against-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg

Shit like that is damn near a permission slip for Putin.

Showing your cards, there's no point

"We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared so we may always be free." Ronald Reagan 1984

"Mitch the democrat bitch"

"democrat voter fraud works and it makes Republicans look stupid"

BigGrumpyBear Member Joined Aug 2018 Posts 2664 EE 0% (0) AL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:52:57 AM EDT [#28] Quote History Originally Posted By darkd0r: Your terms are acceptable. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quote History Originally Posted By darkd0r: Originally Posted By ludder093: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/114465/667a65c9a7291b29_png-2561252.JPG Your terms are acceptable. Yeah...he says that like it's a bad thing.

AeroEngineer Not my circus, not my monkeys. Joined Sep 2012 Posts 26401 EE 100% (35) VA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:55:15 AM EDT [#29] Apparently sone GD posters are upset the Russian invaders are being called “orcs”. This is a very dehumanizing term, and very mean to the poor Russians.

BigGrumpyBear Member Joined Aug 2018 Posts 2665 EE 0% (0) AL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 9:56:45 AM EDT [#30] Quote History Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/france-won-t-deploy-nukes-if-russia-uses-them-against-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg View Quote Macron still pushing rope thinking her screams are sexual when it's really because his watch is caught in her hair.

BerettaGuy

It's an Ultimax not an Ultramax!

Joined Jun 2010
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OH, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:00:40 AM EDT

[#31]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

I would also add that it's not just the internal damage they're responsible for.

They're largely responsible for the anti-West Islamist movement we've been dealing with for 40+ years and spent the last 20 conducting warfare directly against.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DoVTbup548

View Quote View All Quotes

View All Quotes

Quote History

Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:

Originally Posted By Capta:

Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:

Originally Posted By ludder093:

Originally Posted By NY12ga:

Tired of Elon Musk? Try Stephen King! He always did have a way with words... pic.twitter.com/pONSdZWF7f
— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) October 7, 2022

I don't like agreeing with Liberals any more than most of you but I'm smart enough to know when they're right. It's embarrassing how Conservatives have fallen for Russian propaganda or just automatically go against whatever liberals are for.

Yes, but remember- Stephen King wants MAGA Republicans, gun owners, and southern border "complainers" to leave the US as well.

His message is vectored toward Russia only for now.

OK, when the time comes, that conversation might need to be had. This is not the time, and *on the subject of Ukraine* there is no daylight between me and an American on the left who believes the same.
That said, Russian influence ops have been behind a huge amount of the divisiveness in the US in the last 100 years. Dealing with that problem permanently is one of the great unspoken benefits of the Russian-Ukraine war.

In a way I agree and in another way, I don't.

I am with you 100% on the 100 years of Russian influence ops doing us harm, though.

I would also add that it's not just the internal damage they're responsible for.

They're largely responsible for the anti-West Islamist movement we've been dealing with for 40+ years and spent the last 20 conducting warfare directly against.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DoVTbup548

Very true. Soviet influence AND support of Islam to weaken the west started in the 1920s.

Patrick Henry is the greatest Founding Father because without him there would be no Bill of Rights!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10618 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:00:54 AM EDT [#32] ZSU-23-4 Shilka of Ukraine’s 66th Mechanized Brigade firing it’s 23 mm 2A7 autocannons towards a Russian ground force.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/kdKEoDTgZe — BlueSauron\uD83D\uDC41? (@Blue_Sauron) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10619 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:01:33 AM EDT [#33] IZIUM/1315 UTC 13 OCT/ UKR intel reports extremely low morale among RU reinforcements, leading to desertions, refusals and even outright mutiny. RU combat engineers are reported to be building a triple line of defensive trenches near the P-66 HWY. pic.twitter.com/tBE7QLaBSY — Chuck Pfarrer \| Indications & Warnings \| (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

Chaingun

Indelible in the Hippocampus, the Sylvan

Joined Nov 2000
Posts 90073
EE 100% (7)

CA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:02:22 AM EDT

[#34]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA scouting team killed by \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Special Operations Forces (SSO) prob. somewhere in the east pic.twitter.com/2TnlVNHwV5
C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) October 13, 2022

Imagine doing reconnaissance in a Ford Fiesta (or whatever that might be) https://t.co/KNVJtRjHq1
Def Mon (@DefMon3) October 13, 2022

Imagine die-ing in a ford fiesta, in a foreign country......
NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) October 13, 2022

View Quote

It looked more like a GM Hornet

"We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared so we may always be free." Ronald Reagan 1984

"Mitch the democrat bitch"

"democrat voter fraud works and it makes Republicans look stupid"

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:03:34 AM EDT

[#35]

#Ukraine: The wreckage of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter aircraft in a Falcon-style paint scheme- the jet reportedly crashed in #Vinnytsia Oblast yesterday during an AD mission against Russian Shahed-136 drones and cruise missiles. pic.twitter.com/ORocRKQUuV
— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 13, 2022

According to some sources, the jet flew into the remains of a destroyed drone or was damaged by the shrapnel of its warhead, causing a loss of control. pic.twitter.com/GTFoKBuCsc
— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 13, 2022

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

Waldo World's Foremost Glock Hater Joined Nov 2000 Posts 59658 EE 100% (10) WV, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:05:05 AM EDT [Last Edit: Waldo] [#36] Quote History Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: “Russian soldiers mobilized near Kherson killed the commander who prevented them from surrendering” — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022 View Quote That's how the last Russian revolution started.
	Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it..

BigGrumpyBear

Member

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:05:26 AM EDT

[#37]

Quote History

Originally Posted By TheLurker:

?? General Staff: Russian troops receive orders to stop offensive in some front-line areas.

Russian forces in some areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13.
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 13, 2022

I'll be interested to see if this is confirmed via other sources too. If it is, hopefully it becomes a trend

View Quote

The Kerch bridge strike is already paying dividends! Woo Hoo! Happy Dance!

Waldo World's Foremost Glock Hater Joined Nov 2000 Posts 59659 EE 100% (10) WV, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:08:59 AM EDT [#38] Quote History Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: ZSU-23-4 Shilka of Ukraine’s 66th Mechanized Brigade firing it’s 23 mm 2A7 autocannons towards a Russian ground force.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/kdKEoDTgZe — BlueSauron\uD83D\uDC41? (@Blue_Sauron) October 13, 2022 View Quote LOL, is the recoil pushing that thing backwards?
	Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it..

BigGrumpyBear

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:09:25 AM EDT

[#39]

Quote History

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA scouting team killed by \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Special Operations Forces (SSO) prob. somewhere in the east pic.twitter.com/2TnlVNHwV5
C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) October 13, 2022

Imagine doing reconnaissance in a Ford Fiesta (or whatever that might be) https://t.co/KNVJtRjHq1
Def Mon (@DefMon3) October 13, 2022

Imagine die-ing in a ford fiesta, in a foreign country......
NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) October 13, 2022

View Quote

I guess he did get caught dead in that!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10621 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:09:47 AM EDT [#40] According to a Wagner affiliated channel, Zaur Aliyev, an infamous Azerbaijani criminal, was shot by his own comrades. He was given a pardon in exchange for fighting for Wagner, but attempted to escape the frontline and was caught and shot by Wagner fighters.#Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/0pEb6hqme4 WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

PM4E

Joined Jan 2006
Posts 987
EE 100% (7)

IL, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:11:04 AM EDT

[#41]

Quote History

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

The Kerch bridge strike is already paying dividends! Woo Hoo! Happy Dance!

View Quote View All Quotes

View All Quotes

Quote History

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

Originally Posted By TheLurker:

?? General Staff: Russian troops receive orders to stop offensive in some front-line areas.

Russian forces in some areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13.
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 13, 2022

I'll be interested to see if this is confirmed via other sources too. If it is, hopefully it becomes a trend

The Kerch bridge strike is already paying dividends! Woo Hoo! Happy Dance!

Translated: "Russia stops offensive as a sign of goodwill"

BerettaGuy

It's an Ultimax not an Ultramax!

Joined Jun 2010
Posts 6150
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OH, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:13:55 AM EDT

[#42]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Easterner:

Try Google for more.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/05/27/europe/russia-ukraine-genocide-warning-intl/index.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/06/10/7140989/index.amp

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-russias-war-ukraine-genocide

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-ukraine-genocide-is-rooted-in-russian-impunity-for-soviet-crimes/

There is a shit load, and YouTube videos as well. This is primarily an information thread where we back up claims with sources, etc. I personally watched Putin's speech before February 24th. They aren't being shy about their goals here.

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Originally Posted By Easterner:

Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire:

Originally Posted By RolandofGilead:

Originally Posted By hondaciv:

Originally Posted By doc540:
another "face of war"

Teacher Zoya Mehtiyeva was among the victims of orc genocidal bombings this morning.

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/183309/ukraine_teacher1-2558671.jpg

Murderous yes. Genocidal? Come on man. This is how words lose their meanings.

Russia's aims are perfectly in line with the definition of genocide.

https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html

"The name "Ukraine" apparently cannot be retained as the title of any fully denazified state entity in a territory liberated from the Nazi regime"
"Denazification will inevitably also be a de-Ukrainization - a rejection of the large-scale artificial inflation of the ethnic component of self-identification of the population of the territories of historical Little Russia and New Russia, begun by the Soviet authorities."

Read this and understand what it's saying: if you are Ukrainian, you are a nazi. Period. Putin himself, and his mouthpieces in his state run media have said multiple times that Ukraine is not a real country, and Ukrainian is not a real language. Ukrainian children have been transported to Russia to be reeducated.

Definition of genocide:

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

Killing members of the group;
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

ETA I would remind you that RIA is Russian state owned.

Alright- in that case, every single Russian offensive (and some defensive) act can be called genocidal. This is a genocidal war against Ukraine. I don't necessarily disagree.

However, I have not seen Russian offensive action in Ukraine being referred to as "genocidal" much at all- in the general or Ukrainian media, and even in this thread (granted I haven't read all nearly 3,000 pages in this thread but tweets out of Ukraine sources don't use that word as far as I can remember). Why is that word, or this overall discussion, not being brought up more often? Doesn't NATO or the UN have a specific clause in its charter to directly intervene when genocide is happening within certain spaces.

Try Google for more.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/05/27/europe/russia-ukraine-genocide-warning-intl/index.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/06/10/7140989/index.amp

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-russias-war-ukraine-genocide

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-ukraine-genocide-is-rooted-in-russian-impunity-for-soviet-crimes/

There is a shit load, and YouTube videos as well. This is primarily an information thread where we back up claims with sources, etc. I personally watched Putin's speech before February 24th. They aren't being shy about their goals here.

Harvest of Despair (Holodomor) The 1933 Ukrainian Famine Documentary (7 - 12 million Ukrainians starved to death in the largest genocide by famine in world history) - This is on BitChute, YouTube has it but it is only viewable with age verification.

I don't get the members here who don't understand genocide. The Holodomor was not the only mass genocide to erase Ukrainian history, ethnicity, language, and culture by Muscovy/"Russia", there were many more going back several hundreds of years. They need to also study "Russification".

Patrick Henry is the greatest Founding Father because without him there would be no Bill of Rights!

weptek911 Orbit Guard Veteran Joined May 2003 Posts 24462 EE 100% (82) MI, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:16:37 AM EDT [#43] Quote History Originally Posted By Easterner: Oh my God. I think I woke some people up laughing so hard. View Quote I’ve always thought twitter was a sewer ( I do still ) but there are some gems to be found.
	I've been battling some internal demons this week, so far I'm 0 for 6. كافر.

AlmightyTallest

Member

Joined May 2007
Posts 10622
EE 0% (0)

PA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:17:42 AM EDT

[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#44]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Waldo:

LOL, is the recoil pushing that thing backwards?

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Originally Posted By Waldo:

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

ZSU-23-4 Shilka of Ukraine’s 66th Mechanized Brigade firing it’s 23 mm 2A7 autocannons towards a Russian ground force.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/kdKEoDTgZe
— BlueSauron\uD83D\uDC41? (@Blue_Sauron) October 13, 2022

LOL, is the recoil pushing that thing backwards?

Slightly, yes. You can see it on other Russian gun anti aircraft systems too. Great for dispersion, not good for accuracy.

Skip to 47 seconds.

ZSU-23-4 "Shilka", self-propelled, radar guided anti-aircraft weapon system

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hIhANtU-rs

Tunguska

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQtIANpswgE

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

general_cluster

Joined May 2019
Posts 446
EE 0% (0)

USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:23:01 AM EDT

[#45]

Quote History

Originally Posted By PM4E:

Translated: "Russia stops offensive as a sign of goodwill"

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Quote History

Originally Posted By PM4E:

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

Originally Posted By TheLurker:

?? General Staff: Russian troops receive orders to stop offensive in some front-line areas.

Russian forces in some areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13.
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 13, 2022

I'll be interested to see if this is confirmed via other sources too. If it is, hopefully it becomes a trend

The Kerch bridge strike is already paying dividends! Woo Hoo! Happy Dance!

Translated: "Russia stops offensive as a sign of goodwill"

Perhaps someone got tired of sending their fellow countrymen to certain doom?

Not a big movie guy, but i watched Rommel last night. Obviously the coup against hitler failed. It's worth noting the situation had a lot of parallels to the current one in russia.
The Germans obviously go about things much differently than the russians, but the film painted the picture of how love of nation could lead commanders to pump the brakes on destructive insanity...or do the opposite.

Prime

Advocatus Diaboli

Joined Apr 2009
Posts 17563
EE 100% (7)

VA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:23:58 AM EDT

[#46]

Ours are returning home. Another exchange of prisoners, another moment of joy and the realization that today will be one of the best days in life for many families. It was possible to free 20 people from captivity. These are 20 stories of Ukrainian heroes, 14 - soldiers of the Armed Forces, 4 soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces, one National Guardsman and a member of the Navy. There are people whom the Russians kept in Olenivka, in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
https://t.me/ermaka2022/1456

“If by chance you were to ask me which ornaments I would desire above all others in my house, I would reply, without much pause for reflection, arms and books.”
Baldassare Castiglione

BigGrumpyBear

Member

Joined Aug 2018
Posts 2668
EE 0% (0)

AL, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:24:54 AM EDT

[#47]

Quote History

Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:

Wonderful bit of history, thank you.

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Originally Posted By spydercomonkey:

Originally Posted By CharlieR:

Yes.

The biggest advantage of trenches is they usually have communications trenches leading up to them from the rear, so if you are in a static front for a long time, with snipers galore, NCOs can check up on their grunts, you can come and go, get resupplied with chow, take a dump, do it all below ground.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Schwaben_Redoubt_aerial_photograph_10-05-1916_IWM_HU_91107.jpg/440px-Schwaben_Redoubt_aerial_photograph_10-05-1916_IWM_HU_91107.jpg

But a trench is impossible to camouflage, don’t have overhead cover, and are very vulnerable to drones and proximity fuses.

I suspect both sides got used to them 2014-2021 and don’t know any better.

The US went to foxholes, along with everyone else, mostly, in WWII. Easier to dig when your halted for a short while, camouflage, and put overhead cover on. Generally, dogfaces had to stay put in their holes sunup to sundown, or get shot. But if the enemy lines aren’t that close, and you’re getting pounded by artillery and UAVs, a better bet then a trench.

https://i.redd.it/e2xmh39ycoaz.jpg

You need some lumber for a roof but I can’t imagine how we can supply HIMARS and not wood and sandbags.

There was a US officer in WWI, named Depuy, who became indignant that Germans dug better holes then us. They would put a berm of dirt in the front and if suppressed, shoot around the side of their cover and catch the attacker in a crossfire. A US trooper had to duck down in the bottom of his hole and couldn’t stick his head up. Think of Private Blythe in BoB.

30 years later, Depuy made the Army conduct tests on what the best type of hole was, statistically prove his hole was better, and change the FMs to choose his type of hole. He happened to be correct, and we’ve done it that way ever since. The US Army fighting position is easier to put overhead cover on, and camouflage.

https://media.defense.gov/2013/Jan/15/2001177900/-1/-1/0/801921-U-LUD04-229.jpg

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/NINTCHDBPICT000732855970.jpg

Wonderful bit of history, thank you.

I spent most of my time in as light infantry, but back in the stone age when I was in, IIRC, the order of construction went: hasty fighting position, primary fighting position with overhead cover, clearing the fields of fire (FoF), secondary fighting position which covered the same FoF, alternate fighting position and then you connected it all with what I think were called communication trenches.

Someone whose mind isn't half gone can correct me but I think that was the order. Anyway, it was lots and lots and lots of digging.

doc540 Member Joined Dec 2008 Posts 6729 EE 100% (16) TX, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:27:15 AM EDT [Last Edit: doc540] [#48] dupe
	"People, ideas, and hardware...in that order!" Col John Boyd

DK-Prof

PsychoPolitical Master and Father Boog

Joined Feb 2001
Posts 151301
EE 100% (11)

VA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:27:19 AM EDT

[#49]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Waldo:

That's how the last Russian revolution started.

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Quote History

Originally Posted By Waldo:

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

“Russian soldiers mobilized near Kherson killed the commander who prevented them from surrendering”
— WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022

That's how the last Russian revolution started.

I really hope that is true. If so, it's huge.

“A real man does not think of victory or defeat. He plunges recklessly towards an irrational death. By doing this, you will awaken from your dreams.” -- Tsunetomo Yamamoto

BerettaGuy

It's an Ultimax not an Ultramax!

Joined Jun 2010
Posts 6151
EE 0% (0)

OH, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 10:31:21 AM EDT

[#50]

Russian Army Will Be ‘Annihilated’ if Putin Nukes Ukraine: Borrell

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel.

By Alisa Orlova for Kyiv Post
Published Oct. 13 at 4:57 pm

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned Moscow on Thursday, Oct.13, that its forces would be “annihilated” by the West’s military response if President Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

“Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the Member States, and the United States and NATO are not bluffing neither,” Borrell said at the opening of a Diplomatic Academy in Brussels.

“Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian Army will be annihilated.”

Fears that Moscow could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine have grown after Putin issued veiled threats as he staged the annexation of four occupied regions in the face of loses on the battlefield.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has warned Russia it faces “severe consequences” if it launches a nuclear attack on its pro-Western neighbor.

“There would be a sharp response — almost certainly drawing a physical response from many allies, and potentially from NATO itself,” a senior NATO official said Wednesday.

But the alliance has stopped short of threatening to use its nuclear arsenal to respond as non-member Ukraine is not covered by its self-defence clause.

Gen. Petreus said the same thing last week.

Patrick Henry is the greatest Founding Father because without him there would be no Bill of Rights!

OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2807 of 5591)

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