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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2808 of 5591)

BigGrumpyBear

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:34:04 AM EDT

[#1]

Quote History

Originally Posted By MostlyPeaceful:

Don't be too sure that NATO CI didn't know. Identified threats are sometimes left in place for various reasons to include identifying control elements etc.. Arrests, detentions, expulsions are very often after those efforts have been exhausted.

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Originally Posted By MostlyPeaceful:

Originally Posted By Mal_means_bad:

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

“The FSB is like the Game of Thrones,” says a former FSB counterintelligence officer. “You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests.” https://t.co/pDVm00hG5Q
The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 13, 2022

The Economist | The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies
Article below:
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The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies

As they take greater risks, they are getting caught

Oct 9th 2022

VIKTOR MULLER FERREIRA was a young Brazilian with impressive credentials and a big break. Fresh from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, an incubator of talent for America's national security elite, he had secured an internship at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. But when he landed in Amsterdam in April, he was quickly deported to Brazil. Mr Ferreira was, in fact, Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, an intelligence officer working for the GRU, Russia's military intelligence service.

Mr Cherkasov was a so-called illegal, of the sort depicted in the popular television series "The Americans" an officer dispatched abroad under an elaborate foreign identity, often for life. In a four-page document obtained by Dutch intelligence, an aide-memoire of sorts, his cover story was laid out in painstaking detail, down to childhood crushes and favoured restaurants. Mr Cherkasov is now languishing in a Brazilian prison, sentenced to 15 years.

When the Soviet KGB was dissolved in 1991, it reappeared as the FSB, a domestic security service, and the SVR, a foreign intelligence agency. The GRU has endured in one form or another since 1918. These "special services" bask in the fearsome reputation of their tsarist and Soviet forebears. But they emerge from the war in Ukraine with that reputation, and their networks, in tatters. The explosion which damaged the Kerch bridge on October 8th was only the latest security foul-up; Ukrainian operatives are also suspected of having orchestrated a car bombing in Moscow in August which killed the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist ideologue, according to the New York Times.

Intelligence failure lies at the heart of the war. The FSB, the lead agency for protecting Russian secrets and spying in Ukraine, bungled both tasks in spectacular fashion. It failed to stop America from obtaining, and then publicising, Russian war plans for Ukraine the most dramatic deployment of intelligence since America's exposure of Soviet missiles on Cuba in 1962. Worse still, it was the FSB's own conspicuous preparations for war including plans to kill dissidents and install a puppet government that helped convince American and British officials that the Russian military build-up was not a bluff.

Vladimir Putin's decision to go to war in the first place also owed much to the FSB's bungling. The agency's Fifth Service, responsible for ex-Soviet countries, expanded its Ukraine team dramatically in July 2021, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. Yet its officers largely spoke to those Ukrainians who were sympathetic to Russia and exaggerated the scale of their agent networks in the country, giving the Kremlin the false impression that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse.

Confirmation bias was only part of the problem. Intelligence agencies, like armies, reflect the societies they come from. At their best, Russian spies can be bold and resourceful. "We've consistently been surprised by the cleverness and relentlessness of some of the things that they do," says John Sipher, who served as the CIA's station chief in Moscow and later ran its Russia operations. "They have really, really smart people."

But that talent co-exists with venality and dysfunction. Intelligence is embellished at each stage as it rises up the chain, with bad news stripped out before it reaches the Kremlin. A Western official describes how, in one GRU unit, officers are thought to have skimmed off 30% of the salaries of the agents they recruited. That figure rose to 50% as the officers gradually had to spend more time padding out reports with information culled from the internet.

The great strength of Russian intelligence is its sheer scale. Yet only a fraction of its personnel do useful spywork. It was FSB officers who poisoned Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, with Novichok, a nerve agent, in Siberia in 2020. Nothing encapsulates the dual ethos of repression and larceny better than the fact that the FSB's most sought-after position is the chief of the Fourth Service, a division responsible for "economic security". Its officers are placed in key companies, giving them ample opportunity to enrich themselves.

Infighting within the agencies, and with other government departments, is rife. "The FSB is like the Game of Thrones," says Maxim (not his real name), a former FSB counterintelligence officer. "You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests."

The SVR, a descendant of the First Chief Directorate, the KGB's flagship foreign intelligence arm, considers itself more urbane and polished than its Russian sister services. "Our view was that the SVR was far more effective and sophisticated than the GRU," recalls Mr Sipher. But the war has left it battered. Western countries have expelled over 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers since the spring, mostly SVR officers, eliminating nearly half of those operating under diplomatic cover in Europe. Those remaining face heightened scrutiny by local security services.

A recent report by SUPO, Finland's intelligence service, notes that Russian intelligence officers there have mostly been "severed" from their networks. It warns that Russian spies are resorting to alternative means. One is cyber-espionage. Another is the recruitment of foreigners within Russia. A third, which SUPO does not mention, is to lean more heavily on illegals like Mr Cherkasov. But that comes at a cost. The pressure on illegals is driving them to take greater risks than usual, according to European intelligence officials.

In March, for instance, Poland arrested Pablo Gonz lez, a Spanish-Russian journalist also known as Pavel Rubtsov, on suspicion of working for the GRU. A Ukrainian source says he was attempting to enter Ukraine to access a cyber unit in one of the country's intelligence agencies (Mr Rubtsov denies the charges). Mr Cherkasov might have targeted the ICC because it had opened an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine. Their exposure will be keenly felt. Illegals are hugely expensive to train and deploy. The SVR is thought to have 50 to 100 deployed illegals, and the GRU only 10 to 20, according to sources familiar with those programmes.

In many ways, Russian spies face the same professional challenges as their Western counterparts. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cross borders under multiple names, given the ubiquity of biometric controls, or build a digital backstory that stands up to scrutiny. Paying and communicating with agents is another challenge. But whereas Western spies have learnt how to blend into the noise, Russian ones have been slow to adapt. Illegals still use the dated technique of appropriating the identity of a dead baby (familiar to readers of "The Day of the Jackal", a novel published in 1971.) Sloppiness abounds. Data leaked from a Russian food-delivery service in March exposed the names of FSB and GRU officers having food delivered to their respective headquarters.

That would not matter so much if Russian intelligence were not under intense scrutiny. Ever since the GRU's attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal, a former officer, in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, Western allies have shared increasing amounts of intelligence on Russian spooks. Though it was Dutch intelligence that exposed Mr Ferreira, the operation was a joint endeavour that relied on America, Ireland and others.

There has been little accountability for all this bungling. Western officials say they cannot confirm rumours that Sergei Beseda, the head of the FSB's Fifth Service, was arrested in Russia in March. There are no proven job losses at senior level. That reflects the privileged status of the siloviki securocrats in the Russian state. Mr Putin does not trust his spies he is said to be bypassing Alexander Bortnikov, the FSB's chief, and talking to department heads but it would be unwise to pick a fight with them just as his regime is experiencing an upswell of popular discontent over the drafting of hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to fight in Ukraine. On October 8th Mr Putin even placed the FSB in charge of security for the Kerch bridge.

The result is likely to be more of the same. "You have a deep tradition of intelligence professionalism," says Sir John Sawers, a former chief of MI6, "and like a gangrene on top of it is this growing corruption." Maxim, the former FSB officer, agrees. "Back in the 1990s and 2000s there was a KGB touch to it. We stayed under the radar," he says. The breaking point for him was when new graduates of the FSB academy were spotted driving a luxury Mercedes around Moscow. Ukraine is an opportunity to rebuild, he says. "They need to substitute this money world with something bigger. I'm not sure how they are going to do it."

About a year ago some journalists realized that the GRU had been lazy and issued sequentially numbered passports to several dozen spies, so they started investigating people in the number range resulting in a series of articles unmasking several of them. For instance, there was a "Peruvian" woman living in Italy and banging NATO officers who moved to Russia in a hurry after the articles began appearing. Using image search they found she then used the same social media profile pic under her real name in Russia, so the journalists bought Moscow telephone records on the black market and found calls between her and officers in the GRU illegals program. Pretty humiliating for the GRU, and not too impressive of NATO counterintelligence either, if you think about it.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Russian-spy-uncovered-when-GRU-used-consecutive-passport-numbers-reused-social-media-profile-pic/5-2580376/

Don't be too sure that NATO CI didn't know. Identified threats are sometimes left in place for various reasons to include identifying control elements etc.. Arrests, detentions, expulsions are very often after those efforts have been exhausted.

And who wouldn't want the job of banging a hot russian spy and giving her false intel? Made them feel all James Bond!

Dominion21

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:34:55 AM EDT

[Last Edit: Dominion21] [#2]

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Originally Posted By Lightning_P38:
We should also consider that an awful lot of the gear and ammo are a net gain to our military budget. M113s are never going back into US service, we have spent billions maintaining them in storage over the years, same with gobs of the ammo we have sent, we paid for it decades ago, and would have continued spending billions maintaining and storing it for decades to come.

What so few seem to grasp is that most of what we have sent is our garbage, sort of like at my house, every few years we go through and donate junk to a church rummage sale or other charity, it is junk, but still useful to someone else. I am glad to get rid of it, and the other person finds it valuable. I often send a few bits that are "good stuff" with the junk, because it is for a good cause, but it is still things I am not going to use any way.

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Originally Posted By Lightning_P38:

Originally Posted By K0UA:

what ever it is, we needed to have sent more.

We should also consider that an awful lot of the gear and ammo are a net gain to our military budget. M113s are never going back into US service, we have spent billions maintaining them in storage over the years, same with gobs of the ammo we have sent, we paid for it decades ago, and would have continued spending billions maintaining and storing it for decades to come.

What so few seem to grasp is that most of what we have sent is our garbage, sort of like at my house, every few years we go through and donate junk to a church rummage sale or other charity, it is junk, but still useful to someone else. I am glad to get rid of it, and the other person finds it valuable. I often send a few bits that are "good stuff" with the junk, because it is for a good cause, but it is still things I am not going to use any way.

P38 is right of course.

Here is an illustration of his point (building an artificial reef):

EDIT:

- as R0N later pointed out, our newest and best equipment is ALSO part of the aid to Ukraine. Switchblade drones and Excaliber rounds being exapmples.

The ultimate example is the Phoenix Ghost loitering munition (drone) whic we have not even adopted for our own use, yet 121 of them will be sent to Ukraine as aid.

This is an artists’ guess at what it might look like (believe details of the thing are classified, though the Pentagon said publicly in April we are sending them at some point):

BerettaGuy

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:35:40 AM EDT

[Last Edit: BerettaGuy] [#3]

Ukraine Airs ‘Romantic’ Video Asking France for More Guns
By AFP for Kyiv Post
Published Oct. 13 at 12:55 pm

Ukraine’s defence ministry sought to woo France on Wednesday, Oct.12, with a mock love-letter video, urging its ally to send more artillery as a “romantic gesture” to repel the Russian invasion.

The unusual plea, set to Jane Birkin and Serge Gainsbourg’s sultry hit “Je T’aime… Moi Non Plus”, comes as Kyiv urges Western nations to help bolster its air defences after a rash of deadly Russian air strikes in recent days.

“Romantic gestures take many forms,” reads the text in the video posted to the ministry’s Twitter account, opening with footage of pink roses, milk chocolate and a sunset over the Seine river.

“But if you really want to win our hearts,” it adds before cutting to images of large guns in action, “nothing beats 155-mm highly mobile self-propelled artillery”.

Sophie Marceau… Isabelle Adjani… Brigitte Bardot…

Emmanuel Macron! … and CAESARs!
\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6??\uD83C\uDDEB\uD83C\uDDF7 pic.twitter.com/JQDmAO6cjH
Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 12, 2022

Patrick Henry is the greatest Founding Father because without him there would be no Bill of Rights!

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:42:42 AM EDT

[#4]

DOING HARM: The UKR air force continues its successful campaign of Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). The UKR General Staff has revealed that Ukrainian Forces interdicted three Russian S-300 air defense complexes in the vicinity of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/06cobntieO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10624 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:44:40 AM EDT [#5] “Russian 488th Motor Rifle Regiment of the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division stationed near Kreminna are experiencing critical supply issues” — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

BerettaGuy

It's an Ultimax not an Ultramax!

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:45:24 AM EDT

[Last Edit: BerettaGuy] [#6]

Prepared Mobilization Resource Of Russia - 2 Million People, In General Its Mobilization Resource - 29 Million - UkraNews

Vasyl Shtefko: I lied that I have one prosthetic leg, not two (hardcore Ukie!)

Ukraine’s Air Force confirms loss of bomber jet - Ukrainian Pravda

Ukrainian Armed Forces explain why Russian kamikaze drones are targeting infrastructure facilities - Ukrainian Pravda

Patrick Henry is the greatest Founding Father because without him there would be no Bill of Rights!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10625 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:45:26 AM EDT [#7] No, there is not street fighting in Bakhmut. Wagner have not entered the city. They have not captured Ivanhrad. Wagner briefly took control over Ivanhrad, but a Ukrainian counter attack destroyed them and cleaned the town. It is now 100% Ukrainian. Opytne is 100% Ukrainian. pic.twitter.com/ZNbZ4dPnvU Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

DK-Prof

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:47:32 AM EDT

[#8]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

DOING HARM: The UKR air force continues its successful campaign of Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). The UKR General Staff has revealed that Ukrainian Forces interdicted three Russian S-300 air defense complexes in the vicinity of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/06cobntieO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe9KGwaWYAI7EE5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

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It's hilarious to see how Russian equipment is completely and utterly outclassed by US/Western stuff, even when it's Western stuff that's partly improvised, or rushed into service.

... of course, the Ukrainians are probably exaggerating their success, but still.

“A real man does not think of victory or defeat. He plunges recklessly towards an irrational death. By doing this, you will awaken from your dreams.” -- Tsunetomo Yamamoto

BigGrumpyBear

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:48:20 AM EDT

[#9]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Dominion21:

P38 is right of course.

Here is an illustration of his point (building an artificial reef):

https://www.islandpacket.com/latest-news/21tjkh/picture33033822/alternates/FREE_1140/9bMe6.So.9.jpeg

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Originally Posted By Dominion21:

Originally Posted By Lightning_P38:

Originally Posted By K0UA:

what ever it is, we needed to have sent more.

We should also consider that an awful lot of the gear and ammo are a net gain to our military budget. M113s are never going back into US service, we have spent billions maintaining them in storage over the years, same with gobs of the ammo we have sent, we paid for it decades ago, and would have continued spending billions maintaining and storing it for decades to come.

What so few seem to grasp is that most of what we have sent is our garbage, sort of like at my house, every few years we go through and donate junk to a church rummage sale or other charity, it is junk, but still useful to someone else. I am glad to get rid of it, and the other person finds it valuable. I often send a few bits that are "good stuff" with the junk, because it is for a good cause, but it is still things I am not going to use any way.

P38 is right of course.

Here is an illustration of his point (building an artificial reef):

https://www.islandpacket.com/latest-news/21tjkh/picture33033822/alternates/FREE_1140/9bMe6.So.9.jpeg

WTF man! I would have bought one of those!

It breaks my heart to see that.

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10626 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:49:11 AM EDT [#10] Tally as of 9 hrs ago. Ukrainian Forces \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 shot down (x5) Ka-52 Attack Helicopters (x17) Iranian Shahed-136 Drones (x2) Zala Lancet Kamikaze Drones pic.twitter.com/kjogEuU8m1 — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:50:51 AM EDT

[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#11]

Quote History

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

It's hilarious to see how Russian equipment is completely and utterly outclassed by US/Western stuff, even when it's Western stuff that's partly improvised, or rushed into service.

... of course, the Ukrainians are probably exaggerating their success, but still.

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Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

DOING HARM: The UKR air force continues its successful campaign of Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). The UKR General Staff has revealed that Ukrainian Forces interdicted three Russian S-300 air defense complexes in the vicinity of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/06cobntieO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe9KGwaWYAI7EE5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

It's hilarious to see how Russian equipment is completely and utterly outclassed by US/Western stuff, even when it's Western stuff that's partly improvised, or rushed into service.

... of course, the Ukrainians are probably exaggerating their success, but still.

It take a few days or even weeks, but we eventually see the damage from the initial claims in photos or videos. I don't think Ukraine is overestimating the Russian losses, they have turned out to be a bit conservative in fact.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10628 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:51:57 AM EDT [#12] 1 hr ago. Kalibr missiles take aprox ~15-20 mins from the sea to Kyiv, 4 launched, I think shot down, no arrivals in kyiv — G \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@GeeDawg55975157) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:53:03 AM EDT

[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#13]

This was brokered by the West.

BREAKING: #Armenia \uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDF2 and #Azerbaijan \uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDFF have agreed to sign a formal peace deal which includes an official delimitation of the border by the end of the year. pic.twitter.com/Cg8UkUoXS2
Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) October 12, 2022

This deal (if successfully followed through) would be a major diplomatic victory for the European Union.

Just last week intens negotiations between \uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDF2\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDFF were taking place under \uD83C\uDDEB\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA supervision. The Kremlin was completely left out of the process pic.twitter.com/eTI4FdUHzk
Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) October 12, 2022

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

R0N

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:54:48 AM EDT

[#14]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

It take a few days or even weeks, but we eventually see the damage from the initial claims in photos or videos. I don't think Ukraine is overestimating the Russian losses, they have turned out to be a bit conservative in fact.

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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

DOING HARM: The UKR air force continues its successful campaign of Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). The UKR General Staff has revealed that Ukrainian Forces interdicted three Russian S-300 air defense complexes in the vicinity of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/06cobntieO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe9KGwaWYAI7EE5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

It's hilarious to see how Russian equipment is completely and utterly outclassed by US/Western stuff, even when it's Western stuff that's partly improvised, or rushed into service.

... of course, the Ukrainians are probably exaggerating their success, but still.

It take a few days or even weeks, but we eventually see the damage from the initial claims in photos or videos. I don't think Ukraine is overestimating the Russian losses, they have turned out to be a bit conservative in fact.

It’s going to take years to fully evaluate the numbers and in the end there will be a plus or minus associated with the determined numbers.

In the real world off-campus, good marksmanship trumps good will.

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10630 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 10:55:35 AM EDT [#15] Ishchenka has been reportedly taken. #Kherson #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/YUT66wkNpm — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

ITCHY-FINGER

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Posted: 10/13/2022 10:57:10 AM EDT

[#16]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Featureless:

I recall a story, possibly from the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, that someone placed china dinner plates on the street upside down, with the poor vision from inside tanks, they slow or step to try to determine of they were mines, making them targets for Molotov cocktails from nearby buildings. However, my recollection is also that the "Russian" response was to shoot out the lower floors of suspect buildings causing them to collapse and they weren't very discriminating on which buildings they'd collapse.

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I also heard stories of old ladies soaping up some cobblestone streets in precarious turns or hills causing Russian tanks to skid.

How the current Hungarian Admin could be remotely agnostic about this war is very disappointing.

ITCHY-FINGER Joined Oct 2007 Posts 10634 EE 100% (129) FL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:00:46 AM EDT [#17] Quote History Originally Posted By torstin: What benefit is there to even mentioning it? View Quote "Please dont nuke us too Mr. Putin sir"....#f***ingFrance At least they have sent more weapons than Germany.

AlmightyTallest

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:01:50 AM EDT

[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#18]

Quote History

Originally Posted By R0N:

It’s going to take years to fully evaluate the numbers and in the end there will be a plus or minus associated with the determined numbers.

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Originally Posted By R0N:

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Originally Posted By DK-Prof:

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

DOING HARM: The UKR air force continues its successful campaign of Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). The UKR General Staff has revealed that Ukrainian Forces interdicted three Russian S-300 air defense complexes in the vicinity of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/06cobntieO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe9KGwaWYAI7EE5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

It's hilarious to see how Russian equipment is completely and utterly outclassed by US/Western stuff, even when it's Western stuff that's partly improvised, or rushed into service.

... of course, the Ukrainians are probably exaggerating their success, but still.

It take a few days or even weeks, but we eventually see the damage from the initial claims in photos or videos. I don't think Ukraine is overestimating the Russian losses, they have turned out to be a bit conservative in fact.

It’s going to take years to fully evaluate the numbers and in the end there will be a plus or minus associated with the determined numbers.

I certainly agree in regards to exact counting of destroyed units, but if we are going by the indications of multiple large SAM units being made inoperable just the past two days, which Ukraine doesn't usually claim very often and then seeing large kill tallies in the next days of Russian tanks and IFV's then I guess the job is getting done regardless of the actual kill claims.

There is literally a ton of drone and other footage that we aren't seeing, that footage is helping Ukraine to get a handle on what kind of damage they are doing to Russian forces and it seems to be keeping them pretty reliable in the claims department.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

Alex9661

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:10:30 AM EDT

[#19]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Prime:

Ours are returning home. Another exchange of prisoners, another moment of joy and the realization that today will be one of the best days in life for many families. It was possible to free 20 people from captivity. These are 20 stories of Ukrainian heroes, 14 - soldiers of the Armed Forces, 4 soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces, one National Guardsman and a member of the Navy. There are people whom the Russians kept in Olenivka, in the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
https://t.me/ermaka2022/1456

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I had a WTF moment, then looked at the original Telegram post. Autotranslate did fuck up here, it's Territorial Defense, not RU Armed Forces.

ITCHY-FINGER

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:12:43 AM EDT

[#20]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

These mobiks were mobilised on 27 September and already 3 days later ended up in the trenches at Svatove, without any training or supplies. They were lucky to have stumbled upon a Ukrainian checkpoint on their way out, where they were able to surrender. pic.twitter.com/ItCseCNBLF
Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 12, 2022

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I feel sorry for those men. Their government attempted to murder them just to grease their tank treads. I hope every Mobik gets a chance to surrender.

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10632 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:13:40 AM EDT [#21] The Russian ammunition warehouse located in the school was captured by Ukrainian troops in the Kherson region pic.twitter.com/QlMB5kXOBO Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

weptek911

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:14:28 AM EDT

[#22]

Quote History

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

WTF man! I would have bought one of those!

It breaks my heart to see that.

View Quote

It’s absolute bullshit to see that! Those APCs don’t belong to the government, they belong to the American people. They should be surplussed and sold. Not dumped into the ocean for whatever reason..

My local Sheriff Department had one they had fixed up and professionally painted black and gold for their SWAT team. Obama government took it away and shipped it to a Air National Guard bombing range to be used as a target.

I've been battling some internal demons this week, so far I'm 0 for 6.
كافر.

ITCHY-FINGER

Joined Oct 2007
Posts 10636
EE 100% (129)

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:16:26 AM EDT

[#23]

Quote History

Originally Posted By kncook:

(Other soldier watching the guy just throw mines out in the open road)

“That will never work dude….”

View Quote

We had that debate a few dozen pages ago. "How effective is it to just lay mines in the roadway". iirc we all agreed that it will have the desired effect: slow and delay the approaching vehicles, especially if the mines are properly utilized with an overwatch. After the first mine detonates, there will be enough debris and chaos on the road that a buttoned up tank will not be able to see the rest.

m35ben Deuce Joined Mar 2014 Posts 160696 EE 0% (0) TX, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:20:24 AM EDT [#24] Quote History Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: "Please dont nuke us too Mr. Putin sir"....#f***ingFrance At least they have sent more weapons than Germany. View Quote France has had the one boot policy for a long time. This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone.
	nothing of value here

BerettaGuy

It's an Ultimax not an Ultramax!

Joined Jun 2010
Posts 6155
EE 0% (0)

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:21:35 AM EDT

[#25]

Quote History

Originally Posted By weptek911:

It’s absolute bullshit to see that! Those APCs don’t belong to the government, they belong to the American people. They should be surplussed and sold. Not dumped into the ocean for whatever reason..

My local Sheriff Department had one they had fixed up and professionally painted black and gold for their SWAT team. Obama government took it away and shipped it to a Air National Guard bombing range to be used as a target.

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Originally Posted By weptek911:

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

WTF man! I would have bought one of those!

It breaks my heart to see that.

It’s absolute bullshit to see that! Those APCs don’t belong to the government, they belong to the American people. They should be surplussed and sold. Not dumped into the ocean for whatever reason..

My local Sheriff Department had one they had fixed up and professionally painted black and gold for their SWAT team. Obama government took it away and shipped it to a Air National Guard bombing range to be used as a target.

Don't forget that Bill Clinton built a huge reef off of Commiefornia using tanks.

Patrick Henry is the greatest Founding Father because without him there would be no Bill of Rights!

m35ben Deuce Joined Mar 2014 Posts 160697 EE 0% (0) TX, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:22:39 AM EDT [#26] Quote History Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: The Russian ammunition warehouse located in the school was captured by Ukrainian troops in the Kherson region pic.twitter.com/QlMB5kXOBO Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) October 13, 2022 View Quote Either those crates were empty or those are some strong tables
	nothing of value here

AeroE

I Was Free Born

Joined Nov 2000
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EE 100% (2)

USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 11:25:33 AM EDT

[#27]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

DOING HARM: The UKR air force continues its successful campaign of Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). The UKR General Staff has revealed that Ukrainian Forces interdicted three Russian S-300 air defense complexes in the vicinity of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/06cobntieO
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 13, 2022

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe9KGwaWYAI7EE5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

View Quote

Every reader should note that Ukraine did not fly a long drawn out US "Seek Eagle" type of test program before putting these missiles into service.

Don't stand around wringing your hands when time is of the essence during an emergency.

Understand the risk, then have experts on hand that know how to solve any adverse problem, then fix it. Kelly Johnson's practice was to ask for the five minute answer from experts, knowing that it would be 90% of a long drawn out analysis.

Keep your powder dry, and watch your back trail.

AeroE I Was Free Born Joined Nov 2000 Posts 91673 EE 100% (2) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:25:52 AM EDT [Last Edit: AeroE] [#28] ...
	*Keep your powder dry, and watch your back trail.*

Dominion21

Joined Dec 2014
Posts 16176
EE 100% (16)

USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 11:28:43 AM EDT

[Last Edit: Dominion21] [#29]

Quote History

Originally Posted By weptek911:

It’s absolute bullshit to see that! Those APCs don’t belong to the government, they belong to the American people. They should be surplussed and sold. Not dumped into the ocean for whatever reason..

My local Sheriff Department had one they had fixed up and professionally painted black and gold for their SWAT team. Obama government took it away and shipped it to a Air National Guard bombing range to be used as a target.

View Quote View All Quotes

View All Quotes

Quote History

Originally Posted By weptek911:

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

WTF man! I would have bought one of those!

It breaks my heart to see that.

It’s absolute bullshit to see that! Those APCs don’t belong to the government, they belong to the American people. They should be surplussed and sold. Not dumped into the ocean for whatever reason..

My local Sheriff Department had one they had fixed up and professionally painted black and gold for their SWAT team. Obama government took it away and shipped it to a Air National Guard bombing range to be used as a target.

Sorry! Maybe I should have added a trigger warning?

This won’t help, but google turned up many more events showing 113s just dumped like that.

I also love the 113 and it’s sad to see them treated this way.

On the bright (and relevant) side:

- a bunch are in Ukraine now, doing what they were made to do: fight Russians!

- even more cool are the 113 variants (we called it the AIFV) - highly modified and used by the Dutch, and now donated and in service with the Ukrainian army.

Here is the Wiki on them:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIFV

HIPPO Joined Oct 2004 Posts 8339 EE 100% (2) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:29:51 AM EDT [#30] Leaflet for residents of Chornobayevska Community, near city of Kherson, advising them to evacuate. https://t.co/18qqSJB882 — Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 13, 2022

302w

Joined Mar 2013
Posts 1688
EE 0% (0)

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:31:57 AM EDT

[Last Edit: 302w] [#31]

Quote History

Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
Russian Army Will Be ‘Annihilated’ if Putin Nukes Ukraine: Borrell
https://www.kyivpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/000_9mu3e7.jpg
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel.

By Alisa Orlova for Kyiv Post
Published Oct. 13 at 4:57 pm

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned Moscow on Thursday, Oct.13, that its forces would be “annihilated” by the West’s military response if President Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

“Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing, and it has to be clear that the people supporting Ukraine and the European Union and the Member States, and the United States and NATO are not bluffing neither,” Borrell said at the opening of a Diplomatic Academy in Brussels.

“Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian Army will be annihilated.”

Fears that Moscow could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine have grown after Putin issued veiled threats as he staged the annexation of four occupied regions in the face of loses on the battlefield.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has warned Russia it faces “severe consequences” if it launches a nuclear attack on its pro-Western neighbor.

“There would be a sharp response — almost certainly drawing a physical response from many allies, and potentially from NATO itself,” a senior NATO official said Wednesday.

But the alliance has stopped short of threatening to use its nuclear arsenal to respond as non-member Ukraine is not covered by its self-defence clause.

Gen. Petreus said the same thing last week.

View Quote

The EU only has one nuclear member state who publicly announced that they will not retaliate if Putin uses nukes.

AlmightyTallest Member Joined May 2007 Posts 10633 EE 0% (0) PA, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:32:51 AM EDT [#32] One of two russian X-55 cruise missiles, downed by Ukrainian defender using Igla MANPADS. The same team successfully hit and destroyed 2 such missiles consequently. Both were heading towards Ukrainian city. pic.twitter.com/QhoM1IuNI8 — Walter Report \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@walter_report) October 13, 2022
	It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

ITCHY-FINGER Joined Oct 2007 Posts 10637 EE 100% (129) FL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:33:18 AM EDT [#33] Quote History Originally Posted By Kagetora: Not one penny wasted. View Quote And now the chance to kill iranian IRGC!!! What a bargain! Only thing missing is some antifa and BLM...

anono

Joined Nov 2020
Posts 2129
EE 100% (5)

USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 11:34:32 AM EDT

[#34]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Dominion21:

EDIT:

- as R0N later pointed out, our newest and best equipment is ALSO part of the aid to Ukraine. Switchblade drones and Excaliber rounds being exapmples.

The ultimate example is the Phoenix Ghost loitering munition (drone) whic we have not even adopted for our own use, yet 121 of them will be sent to Ukraine as aid.

This is an artists’ guess at what it might look like (believe details of the thing are classified, though the Pentagon said publicly in April we are sending them at some point):

https://www.airforce-technology.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2022/05/switchblade300-aerovironment.jpg

View Quote

T&E also costs a shit ton of money, and having intelligence into their real world performance is very valuable. Obviously there is a trade off in price and risk of something being captured, but it's not every day you can have other people test your equipment against one of their designed foes in real combat situations. You can't believe how many people and resources are involved in a T&E mission.

AlmightyTallest

Member

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:34:47 AM EDT

[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#35]

Good news!

Finally European countries are getting serious about air defense / ballistic missile defense with 15 countries signing up to buy the Israeli Arrow 3 system. pic.twitter.com/pfkOZ8VYsw
Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) October 13, 2022

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

The Arrow 3 or Hetz 3 (Hebrew: חֵץ 3, pronounced [ˈχet͡s]) is an exoatmospheric hypersonic anti-ballistic missile, jointly funded, developed and produced by Israel and the United States. Undertaken by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Boeing, it is overseen by the Israeli Ministry of Defense's "Homa" (Hebrew: חומה, pronounced [χoma], "rampart") administration and the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. It provides exo-atmospheric interception of ballistic missiles (during the space-flight portion of their trajectory), including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)[2][3] carrying nuclear, chemical, biological or conventional warheads. With divert motor capability, its kill vehicle can switch directions dramatically, allowing it to pivot to see approaching satellites.[4] The missile may have a reported flight range of up to 2,400 km (1,500 mi).[5]

According to the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency, Arrow 3 may serve as an anti-satellite weapon, which would make Israel one of the world's few countries capable of shooting down satellites.[4]

View Quote

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

ITCHY-FINGER Joined Oct 2007 Posts 10638 EE 100% (129) FL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:35:39 AM EDT [#36] Quote History Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Like to see the GD mental gymnastics for this View Quote No kidding. "Russia and Ukraine just as bad, errr Iranian Kuds Force terrorists just as bad as Ukrainian school children"...#stupididiots

Circuits contrarian Joined Jan 2001 Posts 24139 EE 100% (21) UKR	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:37:31 AM EDT [#37] Quote History Originally Posted By 302w: The EU only has one nuclear member state who publicly announced that they will not retaliate if Putin uses nukes. View Quote The west does not have to use nukes to annihilate Russian forces. That's kind of the differentiator between the east and the west.
	Slava Ukraini! "The only real difference between the men and the boys, is the number and size, and cost of their toys." NRA Life, GOA Life, CSSA Life, SAF Life, NRA Certified Instructor

anono

Joined Nov 2020
Posts 2130
EE 100% (5)

USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 11:41:08 AM EDT

[#38]

Quote History

Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

Good news!

Finally European countries are getting serious about air defense / ballistic missile defense with 15 countries signing up to buy the Israeli Arrow 3 system. pic.twitter.com/pfkOZ8VYsw
Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) October 13, 2022

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe8FVElWYAACqv-?format=jpg&name=small

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3

View Quote

That's good. I know there are a lot of Israel haters here, but in the missile and e warfare world, they are very, very well respected. Good to see EU states waking up to the idea that real war can always happen and preparing themselves.

HIPPO

Joined Oct 2004
Posts 8340
EE 100% (2)

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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:42:16 AM EDT

[Last Edit: HIPPO] [#39]

Quote History

Originally Posted By m35ben:
France has had the one boot policy for a long time. This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Originally Posted By m35ben:

Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

"Please dont nuke us too Mr. Putin sir"....#f***ingFrance

At least they have sent more weapons than Germany.

France has had the one boot policy for a long time. This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

Macron also said that Ukraine should restore its territorial integrity within the borders internationally recognized in 1991; he urged Ukraine and Russia to return to the negotiations.
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 13, 2022

There has been a recent shift away from strategic ambiguity towards a more clear response to the what-if Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons in this war question.

Macron has consistently tried to differentiate his responses, but France appears to be on board overall if not doing more than several others in Europe.

AlmightyTallest

Member

Joined May 2007
Posts 10635
EE 0% (0)

PA, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 11:46:59 AM EDT

[#40]

Ukraine is getting very good at hunting and destroying s-300 in the Tokmak area. Something like 2 dozen launchers + support vehicles destroyed this week.
Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) October 13, 2022

Getting the support vehicles is the real prize, if you can destroy the much rarer radar systems needed by the launchers, you can at least temporarily turn the whole system into an expensive paper weight until the next radar and support vehicles are put into place.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

HIPPO Joined Oct 2004 Posts 8341 EE 100% (2) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:47:19 AM EDT [#41] Like a holiday… in Cambodia More of definitely not calls for evacuation in Kherson oblast from Russian-appointed “officials” Evacuation - ?\uD83D\uDE21 Opportunity for people to change their surroundings - ?\uD83D\uDE09 pic.twitter.com/nHwXun9i2M — Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) October 13, 2022

AlmightyTallest

Member

Joined May 2007
Posts 10636
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Posted: 10/13/2022 11:48:20 AM EDT

[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#42]

#Ukraine: The Russian Army started to deploy a new type of Iranian kamikaze drone- the wreckage of a Shahed-131 loitering munition was found in #Kyiv Oblast. The drone has weaker payload and smaller range comparing to the Shahed-136. pic.twitter.com/qJO23Po3XF
— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 13, 2022

The Shahed-131 can be identified by a weaker engine - either the Iranian Shahed-783/788 or Serat-01, which are similar to the Chinese MDR-208. pic.twitter.com/WR1s9N1NBN
— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 13, 2022

It's not stupid, it's advanced!!

CS223

Member

Joined May 2002
Posts 20948
EE 100% (61)

FL, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 11:48:38 AM EDT

[#43]

Quote History

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Originally Posted By BigGrumpyBear:

Originally Posted By TheLurker:

?? General Staff: Russian troops receive orders to stop offensive in some front-line areas.

Russian forces in some areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13.
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 13, 2022

I'll be interested to see if this is confirmed via other sources too. If it is, hopefully it becomes a trend.

Sounds more like impending use of NBC.

How come every time there is a shooting, they want to take away the guns from the people who didn't do it?

HIPPO Joined Oct 2004 Posts 8342 EE 100% (2) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:50:08 AM EDT [#44] 99 problems Breaking: The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (#PACE) has adopted a resolution, designating the #RussianFederation as a #terrorist regime. 99 of the deputies present supported it; one abstained. pic.twitter.com/68d4WYK9rG KyivPost (@KyivPost) October 13, 2022 This is not the EU.

HIPPO Joined Oct 2004 Posts 8343 EE 100% (2) USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 11:56:00 AM EDT [#45] New article! Too Little, Too Late: A Guide To Russia's Armed Drones \uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFAhttps://t.co/ZNeEwylPg6 Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) October 13, 2022

xd341

Tard Whisperer

Joined Aug 2012
Posts 20850
EE 0% (0)

NY, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 12:11:47 PM EDT

[#46]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Prime:

Great read.

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quote History

Originally Posted By Prime:

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

“The FSB is like the Game of Thrones,” says a former FSB counterintelligence officer. “You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests.” https://t.co/pDVm00hG5Q
The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 13, 2022

The Economist | The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies
Article below:
Click To View Spoiler

The war in Ukraine has battered the reputation of Russian spies

As they take greater risks, they are getting caught

Oct 9th 2022

VIKTOR MULLER FERREIRA was a young Brazilian with impressive credentials and a big break. Fresh from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC, an incubator of talent for America's national security elite, he had secured an internship at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. But when he landed in Amsterdam in April, he was quickly deported to Brazil. Mr Ferreira was, in fact, Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov, an intelligence officer working for the GRU, Russia's military intelligence service.

Mr Cherkasov was a so-called illegal, of the sort depicted in the popular television series "The Americans" an officer dispatched abroad under an elaborate foreign identity, often for life. In a four-page document obtained by Dutch intelligence, an aide-memoire of sorts, his cover story was laid out in painstaking detail, down to childhood crushes and favoured restaurants. Mr Cherkasov is now languishing in a Brazilian prison, sentenced to 15 years.

When the Soviet KGB was dissolved in 1991, it reappeared as the FSB, a domestic security service, and the SVR, a foreign intelligence agency. The GRU has endured in one form or another since 1918. These "special services" bask in the fearsome reputation of their tsarist and Soviet forebears. But they emerge from the war in Ukraine with that reputation, and their networks, in tatters. The explosion which damaged the Kerch bridge on October 8th was only the latest security foul-up; Ukrainian operatives are also suspected of having orchestrated a car bombing in Moscow in August which killed the daughter of a prominent Russian ultra-nationalist ideologue, according to the New York Times.

Intelligence failure lies at the heart of the war. The FSB, the lead agency for protecting Russian secrets and spying in Ukraine, bungled both tasks in spectacular fashion. It failed to stop America from obtaining, and then publicising, Russian war plans for Ukraine the most dramatic deployment of intelligence since America's exposure of Soviet missiles on Cuba in 1962. Worse still, it was the FSB's own conspicuous preparations for war including plans to kill dissidents and install a puppet government that helped convince American and British officials that the Russian military build-up was not a bluff.

Vladimir Putin's decision to go to war in the first place also owed much to the FSB's bungling. The agency's Fifth Service, responsible for ex-Soviet countries, expanded its Ukraine team dramatically in July 2021, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. Yet its officers largely spoke to those Ukrainians who were sympathetic to Russia and exaggerated the scale of their agent networks in the country, giving the Kremlin the false impression that the Ukrainian government would quickly collapse.

Confirmation bias was only part of the problem. Intelligence agencies, like armies, reflect the societies they come from. At their best, Russian spies can be bold and resourceful. "We've consistently been surprised by the cleverness and relentlessness of some of the things that they do," says John Sipher, who served as the CIA's station chief in Moscow and later ran its Russia operations. "They have really, really smart people."

But that talent co-exists with venality and dysfunction. Intelligence is embellished at each stage as it rises up the chain, with bad news stripped out before it reaches the Kremlin. A Western official describes how, in one GRU unit, officers are thought to have skimmed off 30% of the salaries of the agents they recruited. That figure rose to 50% as the officers gradually had to spend more time padding out reports with information culled from the internet.

The great strength of Russian intelligence is its sheer scale. Yet only a fraction of its personnel do useful spywork. It was FSB officers who poisoned Alexei Navalny, an opposition leader, with Novichok, a nerve agent, in Siberia in 2020. Nothing encapsulates the dual ethos of repression and larceny better than the fact that the FSB's most sought-after position is the chief of the Fourth Service, a division responsible for "economic security". Its officers are placed in key companies, giving them ample opportunity to enrich themselves.

Infighting within the agencies, and with other government departments, is rife. "The FSB is like the Game of Thrones," says Maxim (not his real name), a former FSB counterintelligence officer. "You have different clans inside with different political and financial interests."

The SVR, a descendant of the First Chief Directorate, the KGB's flagship foreign intelligence arm, considers itself more urbane and polished than its Russian sister services. "Our view was that the SVR was far more effective and sophisticated than the GRU," recalls Mr Sipher. But the war has left it battered. Western countries have expelled over 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers since the spring, mostly SVR officers, eliminating nearly half of those operating under diplomatic cover in Europe. Those remaining face heightened scrutiny by local security services.

A recent report by SUPO, Finland's intelligence service, notes that Russian intelligence officers there have mostly been "severed" from their networks. It warns that Russian spies are resorting to alternative means. One is cyber-espionage. Another is the recruitment of foreigners within Russia. A third, which SUPO does not mention, is to lean more heavily on illegals like Mr Cherkasov. But that comes at a cost. The pressure on illegals is driving them to take greater risks than usual, according to European intelligence officials.

In March, for instance, Poland arrested Pablo Gonz lez, a Spanish-Russian journalist also known as Pavel Rubtsov, on suspicion of working for the GRU. A Ukrainian source says he was attempting to enter Ukraine to access a cyber unit in one of the country's intelligence agencies (Mr Rubtsov denies the charges). Mr Cherkasov might have targeted the ICC because it had opened an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine. Their exposure will be keenly felt. Illegals are hugely expensive to train and deploy. The SVR is thought to have 50 to 100 deployed illegals, and the GRU only 10 to 20, according to sources familiar with those programmes.

In many ways, Russian spies face the same professional challenges as their Western counterparts. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cross borders under multiple names, given the ubiquity of biometric controls, or build a digital backstory that stands up to scrutiny. Paying and communicating with agents is another challenge. But whereas Western spies have learnt how to blend into the noise, Russian ones have been slow to adapt. Illegals still use the dated technique of appropriating the identity of a dead baby (familiar to readers of "The Day of the Jackal", a novel published in 1971.) Sloppiness abounds. Data leaked from a Russian food-delivery service in March exposed the names of FSB and GRU officers having food delivered to their respective headquarters.

That would not matter so much if Russian intelligence were not under intense scrutiny. Ever since the GRU's attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal, a former officer, in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, Western allies have shared increasing amounts of intelligence on Russian spooks. Though it was Dutch intelligence that exposed Mr Ferreira, the operation was a joint endeavour that relied on America, Ireland and others.

There has been little accountability for all this bungling. Western officials say they cannot confirm rumours that Sergei Beseda, the head of the FSB's Fifth Service, was arrested in Russia in March. There are no proven job losses at senior level. That reflects the privileged status of the siloviki securocrats in the Russian state. Mr Putin does not trust his spies he is said to be bypassing Alexander Bortnikov, the FSB's chief, and talking to department heads but it would be unwise to pick a fight with them just as his regime is experiencing an upswell of popular discontent over the drafting of hundreds of thousands of young Russian men to fight in Ukraine. On October 8th Mr Putin even placed the FSB in charge of security for the Kerch bridge.

The result is likely to be more of the same. "You have a deep tradition of intelligence professionalism," says Sir John Sawers, a former chief of MI6, "and like a gangrene on top of it is this growing corruption." Maxim, the former FSB officer, agrees. "Back in the 1990s and 2000s there was a KGB touch to it. We stayed under the radar," he says. The breaking point for him was when new graduates of the FSB academy were spotted driving a luxury Mercedes around Moscow. Ukraine is an opportunity to rebuild, he says. "They need to substitute this money world with something bigger. I'm not sure how they are going to do it."

Great read.

It was....until I hit "learnt"

Is learnt a word?

is the author English? I thought they invented the language?

ScaryBlackGuns

Wartime Consigliere

Joined Mar 2003
Posts 14936
EE 100% (6)

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Posted: 10/13/2022 12:15:11 PM EDT

[Last Edit: ScaryBlackGuns] [#47]

Quote History

Originally Posted By xd341:
It was....until I hit "learnt"

Is learnt a word?

is the author English? I thought they invented the language?

View Quote

Both "learnt" and "learned" are past participle and past tense of the verb learn. Both are proper but learned is more common in North America while learnt is more common in the rest of the world.

...did you just post a picture of a dude festooned with vestigial dicks? - John_Wayne777

xd341

Tard Whisperer

Joined Aug 2012
Posts 20851
EE 0% (0)

NY, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 12:15:22 PM EDT

[#48]

Quote History

Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

I think they watched too much Top Gear...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmEp9bBY5ds

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Quote History

Originally Posted By Ryan_Ruck:

Originally Posted By HIPPO:

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA scouting team killed by \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Special Operations Forces (SSO) prob. somewhere in the east pic.twitter.com/2TnlVNHwV5
C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) October 13, 2022

Imagine doing reconnaissance in a Ford Fiesta (or whatever that might be) https://t.co/KNVJtRjHq1
Def Mon (@DefMon3) October 13, 2022

Imagine die-ing in a ford fiesta, in a foreign country......
NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) October 13, 2022

I think they watched too much Top Gear...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmEp9bBY5ds

Weren't the Ukies doing Thunder Runs in Toyota technicals with ATGM crews in the back?

panthermark Joined Feb 2019 Posts 8112 EE 100% (2) IL, USA	Posted: 10/13/2022 12:17:53 PM EDT [#49] Quote History Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/france-won-t-deploy-nukes-if-russia-uses-them-against-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg View Quote

RSM

Member

Joined Dec 2003
Posts 2618
EE 0% (0)

KY, USA

Posted: 10/13/2022 12:20:21 PM EDT

[#50]

US Govt sinks a lot of things to benefit citizens.

Ships (including aircraft carriers), planes and armored vehicles.

Usually private money is used to pay for the the removal of hazardous materials and the cost of the sinking.

The beneficiaries are sports fisherman, predator and game fish and scuba/free divers and the local industries that support those activities.

"Major, with the weapon shops out of the way we can introduce steadying laws that could not be flouted." -A.E. Van Vogt 1951

OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2808 of 5591)

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