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Link Posted: 11/5/2022 8:43:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: reb0957] [#1]
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Originally Posted By Tiberius:


She's worse than AOC  AOC doesn't talk about family values then go out and sport bang gym bros.
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AOC supporters don't go to the gym.....Sorry, couldn't help it
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 8:44:57 PM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Betting they’re either blowing the dam or it’s a chem attack once the UA gets into Kherson.
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The Russians are digging in on the low side of the Dnipro. They pop that dam their grunts in the trenches better have scuba gear on.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 8:45:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea] [#3]
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Originally Posted By SoCalExile:
Yeah fuck that guy after listening until 9:39.
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From his characterization of China’s political moves? The upcoming US election? Or his characterization that autocratic governments are less fragmented and able to exploit divisions in other countries or political blocks? That’s pretty much all he mentioned in the first 10 minutes    
Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz holds talks with Xi Jinping, hopes China persuades Russia to end war
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   https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-iran-china-germany-north-korea-a308db7e340fed2e4c09a6303368de96          Attachment Attached File
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-retains-china-ties-despite-rising-geopolitical-tensions-11667388729                                          Attachment Attached File
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https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-war-china-comes-in-full-support-of-russia-calls-for-impartial/                                                                                                                                                           Attachment Attached File
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/axis-of-evil-chinese-tech-powering-iranian-drones-in-russia-ukraine-war/amp/                              Attachment Attached File
https://www.politico.eu/article/report-germany-government-chip-plant-china-despite-secret-service-warning/amp/Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 8:47:27 PM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By Capta:
More details on the Russian infantry battalion allegedly wiped out.  Started with 570 mobiks, finished the next day with 29 unwounded survivors, 12 wounded.  529 KIA according to a survivor.  Also claims another full battalion was destroyed before them.  Paints a completely FUBAR picture of the state of the Russian army in the area.  (Unconfirmed)

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/5/7375139/

Unknown parties jam Russian military channels with 8-bit music:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ymvv7k/jamming_attempts_on_russian_military_radio_were/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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LOL! Needs moar Devo. Whip it good!
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 8:59:32 PM EDT
[#5]
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If true, meh.

The stipulation of "no negotiation while Putin is in power" mirrors reality since Putin isn't actually interested in good-faith negotiations.

But they don't have to say that out loud for the net result to be the same.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:03:40 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
3 grenades dropped on a Russian soldier, he throws or attempts to throw 2 of them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yn1naz/a_ukrainian_drone_dropping_multiple_grenades_on_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb
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I can't muster sympathy for suffering and dead orcs, but let's take a minute to appreciate how depressing this scene is. Here's a rascist invader, presumably a conscript. I don't think he looks very well equipped, do you? Doesn't that look like an older helmet? And coat? He's obviously already injured, see the half-shredded coat with the polyfill lining exposed, and apparently bloodied. Where is his battle buddy? He's injured, and left alone in a trench with one or two drones after him? Why was nobody helping him to safety? Where is the rest of his unit, are they not looking for the one who's lost? This guy died alone, in a foreign country his dictator invaded for no good reason, with no one to help or comfort him. Oh, sure, fuck that guy. But what this little scene says about Russian military discipline and military culture is pretty telling. Ukraine will win.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:04:09 PM EDT
[#7]
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Originally Posted By doc540:
Drone vid of a well excavated fox hole

Fox Hole
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Not sure how far away that drone was, but based on the inhabitant's behavior, maybe militaries need to start looking into a vulpine-based drone tracking system.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:12:27 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I can't muster sympathy for suffering and dead orcs, but let's take a minute to appreciate how depressing this scene is. Here's a rascist invader, presumably a conscript. I don't think he looks very well equipped, do you? Doesn't that look like an older helmet? And coat? He's obviously already injured, see the half-shredded coat with the polyfill lining exposed, and apparently bloodied. Where is his battle buddy? He's injured, and left alone in a trench with one or two drones after him? Why was nobody helping him to safety? Where is the rest of his unit, are they not looking for the one who's lost? This guy died alone, in a foreign country his dictator invaded for no good reason, with no one to help or comfort him. Oh, sure, fuck that guy. But what this little scene says about Russian military discipline and military culture is pretty telling. Ukraine will win.
View Quote



Fuck that guy
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:21:35 PM EDT
[#9]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

Betting they're either blowing the dam or it's a chem attack once the UA gets into Kherson.
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Originally Posted By Capta:
Originally Posted By Zam18th:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

This lends a little credibility to my gut feeling that Russia is up to something. Whatever it is, at least we're on top of it.



Betting they're either blowing the dam or it's a chem attack once the UA gets into Kherson.

I wouldn't be surprised. IIRC Kherson proper is low and would be flooded but so would the left bank. Just the type of self defeating move they'd make.

I don't think they'd do radiological because too much intl blowback, risk of the wind shifting, and long term no go zones would hurt their fantasies of pushing West. But chemical could be done in a more controlled manner after the UA forces move in and I think some of their agents are (supposed to be) more difficult to verify. So draw them in, hit them with chem attacks, and then push back through in a counter attack could be their thinking and how they justified retreating.

Of course it could be something completely different relating to assassinations, grain corridor, Belarus, infrastructure, etc. It just seems like they've changed and there has been strange behavior of late, making me uneasy.

Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:30:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#10]
ISW assessment for November 5th.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian forces continued to set up defensive positions along the Dnipro River on November 5. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Forces, Nataliya Humenyuk, stated that Russian forces are building strong defensive positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River with firing positions that they will use to target Ukrainian forces on the right (western) bank.[23] Humenyuk added that Russian forces are still operating on the right bank. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Russian forces are still conducting maneuvers and setting up defensive lines on the right bank, while simultaneously mining the left bank and evacuating civilians at least 15km away from the coast.[24] The Ukrainian Resistance Center specified that Russian forces are preparing Nova Kakhovka (on the left bank) for battle by mining underground communications lines such as sewers.[25] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reiterated that Russian forces are continuing to destroy civilian watercraft and have already destroyed over 50 vessels.[26] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces are likely attempting to prevent Ukrainian forces from chasing them to the left bank following a fighting withdrawal.[27]  
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Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:33:57 PM EDT
[#11]
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Why, yes, let's negotiate. In exchange for peace, Russia agrees to give up its nuclear weapons and accept nuclear arms inspectors. Russia agrees to return to the borders it recognized in the 90s, and returns every Ukrainian abducted from Ukraine, and Ukraine agrees not to invade Russia. Deal?
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:48:58 PM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

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Meowitzer. That's going to be my next cat's name.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:50:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: FerrousDueler] [#13]
Once again, it would be awesome if  Ukraine could do an amphibious assault on the opposite bank of the Dnepr and establish a beachhead to flood in behind the forces fleeing Kherson.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 9:57:20 PM EDT
[#14]
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Originally Posted By pivoproseem:
Once again, it would be awesome if  Ukraine could do an amphibious assault on the opposite bank of the Dnipro river and establish a beachhead to flood in behind the forces fleeing Kherson.
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Totally not happening but a air drop behind the lines would be interesting.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:12:55 PM EDT
[#15]
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Originally Posted By theskuh:

Totally not happening but a air drop behind the lines would be interesting.
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Air assault maybe.  Air drop I don't see as a good Idea.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:15:36 PM EDT
[#16]
So what are we thinking on how long it will take to liberate Kherson?  Weeks, months?

I don’t even want to guess on casualties…

Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:47:52 PM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By sq40:
So what are we thinking on how long it will take to liberate Kherson?  Weeks, months?

I don’t even want to guess on casualties…

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It won't be quick or easy is my guess.  I hope I'm wrong!
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:48:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: vahog] [#18]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
Air assault maybe.  Air drop I don't see as a good Idea.
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I don't think we'll see either. The Ukrainian offensives haven't taken many risks. I don't see an air assault or an airdrop across the Dnepr in their hand. It would be totally out of character -- it's something they have no experience with. And I certainly don't see them channeling Gavin and Robert Redford and trying it by water.

I would think the Ukrainians would shift east of the Dnepr Reservoir and attack toward Melitopol or SW along the left bank of the Dnepr reservoir.

Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:48:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: absael] [#19]
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Originally Posted By sq40:
So what are we thinking on how long it will take to liberate Kherson?  Weeks, months?

I don't even want to guess on casualties

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Someone here mentioned the possibility of just bypassing Kherson for the time being, and going to work on Melitopol.  This sounds like a pretty good idea to me.  It seems like they should be able to cut Kherson off, and since the Russians are evacuating all the Ukrainian civilians, they're the only ones who would suffer from a blockade.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:53:19 PM EDT
[#20]
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Originally Posted By vahog:


I don't think we'll see either. The Ukrainian offensives haven't taken many risks. I don't see an air assault or an airdrop across the Dnepr in their hand. It would be totally out of character -- it's something they have no experience with. And I certainly don't see them channeling Gavin and Robert Redford and trying it by water.

I would think the Ukrainians would shift east of the Dnepr Reservoir and attack toward Melitopol or SW along the right bank of the Dnepr reservoir.

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I agree with that.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:53:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 10:57:15 PM EDT
[#22]
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Originally Posted By SoCalExile:
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Rekt
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:06:45 PM EDT
[#23]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
I agree with that.
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
Originally Posted By vahog:


I don't think we'll see either. The Ukrainian offensives haven't taken many risks. I don't see an air assault or an airdrop across the Dnepr in their hand. It would be totally out of character -- it's something they have no experience with. And I certainly don't see them channeling Gavin and Robert Redford and trying it by water.

I would think the Ukrainians would shift east of the Dnepr Reservoir and attack toward Melitopol or SW along the right bank of the Dnepr reservoir.

I agree with that.

Me too but I bet it would be a hell of a surprise for the Russians.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:12:23 PM EDT
[#24]
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Originally Posted By theskuh:

Totally not happening but a air drop behind the lines would be interesting.
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Originally Posted By theskuh:
Originally Posted By pivoproseem:
Once again, it would be awesome if  Ukraine could do an amphibious assault on the opposite bank of the Dnipro river and establish a beachhead to flood in behind the forces fleeing Kherson.

Totally not happening but a air drop behind the lines would be interesting.
Yay-Borne!
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:13:38 PM EDT
[#25]
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Originally Posted By theskuh:

Me too but I bet it would be a hell of a surprise for the Russians.
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It would surprise everyone. Follow it up with a beach landing in Crimea
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:16:48 PM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By m35ben:
It would surprise everyone. Follow it up with a beach landing in Crimea
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Yes!
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:20:37 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By absael:
Someone here mentioned the possibility of just bypassing Kherson for the time being, and going to work on Melitopol.  This sounds like a pretty good idea to me.  It seems like they should be able to cut Kherson off, and since the Russians are evacuating all the Ukrainian civilians, they're the only ones who would suffer from a blockade.
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I'm sure a lot said it but I made a map. Looking at the land east of the blue attack line is tons of river tributaries.

Melitopol is needed to attack Crimea. Seems the best way to attack the fixed defenses on the river now is get behind them. This is all assuming UA has the equipment and personal, and can launch like they did in Kharkiv. I assume Russia is expected this maneuver too.

Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:35:17 PM EDT
[#28]
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Originally Posted By theskuh:

Totally not happening but a air drop behind the lines would be interesting.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By theskuh:
Originally Posted By pivoproseem:
Once again, it would be awesome if  Ukraine could do an amphibious assault on the opposite bank of the Dnipro river and establish a beachhead to flood in behind the forces fleeing Kherson.

Totally not happening but a air drop behind the lines would be interesting.


I actually believe Ukraine is more than capable of crossing the Dnipro, but I don't think they'd be able to keep a bridgehead supported, especially over the winter.  Except in really cold winters I don't believe it freezes over in most of the section that matters but there is pack ice  and, well, hypothermia.   I haven't seen much engineering equipment except mine stuff in the aid packages, and their ex-Soviet stuff is pretty old and probably wasn't well maintained before 2014 at least. Also of course, a crossing would give the Russians a pretty significant target to expend pretty much all their remaining PGMs (and possibly break out the CBRN stuff).
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:46:06 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By Phocks:


I actually believe Ukraine is more than capable of crossing the Dnipro, but I don't think they'd be able to keep a bridgehead supported, especially over the winter.  Except in really cold winters I don't believe it freezes over in most of the section that matters but there is pack ice  and, well, hypothermia.   I haven't seen much engineering equipment except mine stuff in the aid packages, and their ex-Soviet stuff is pretty old and probably wasn't well maintained before 2014 at least. Also of course, a crossing would give the Russians a pretty significant target to expend pretty much all their remaining PGMs (and possibly break out the CBRN stuff).
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Agreed. Even if the Ukrainians could get a bridgehead I don't know what they would do with it. They can't guarantee they would keep a pontoon bridge floating. They won't have heavy weapons and the Russians will.

I would sit tight on my side and use all those fixed defenses the Ivans have been building south of Kherson for some sport with drones and make their life miserable over there.
Link Posted: 11/5/2022 11:49:09 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By SoCalExile:
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Says you have to login to see it. Youtube version.

Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:06:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu] [#31]
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Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
I'm sure a lot said it but I made a map. Looking at the land east of the blue attack line is tons of river tributaries.

Melitopol is needed to attack Crimea. Seems the best way to attack the fixed defenses on the river now is get behind them. This is all assuming UA has the equipment and personal, and can launch like they did in Kharkiv. I assume Russia is expected this maneuver too.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/184365/South-01-2579107.png
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Russia has been losing troops & equipment at a steady pace. The length of line they're holding is immense. At some point the objection that thrusting down to Melitopol exposes too much Ukrainian flank isn't going to be as big a risk as it appears. Exposing their flanks to what? What counter-thrust can Russia manage? Especially if Russia is still looking west at Kherson. Moving down to Melitopol would break the back of the southern front. The only problem is that it would take a LOT of men & equipment for Ukraine to ensure everything they passed through was controlled, pacified, and stabilized. This is way more ground than the Kharkiv advance, IIRC.

News Years in Armiansk!
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:10:15 AM EDT
[#32]
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:22:55 AM EDT
[#33]
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Originally Posted By toaster:
Possibly an interesting addition to the thread.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xK_2wDYTelw
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Yes good video bit was posted about a month ago
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:36:11 AM EDT
[#34]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

Russia has been losing troops & equipment at a steady pace. The length of line they're holding is immense. At some point the objection that thrusting down to Melitopol exposes too much Ukrainian flank isn't going to be as big a risk as it appears. Exposing their flanks to what? What counter-thrust can Russia manage? Especially if Russia is still looking west at Kherson. Moving down to Melitopol would break the back of the southern front. The only problem is that it would take a LOT of men & equipment for Ukraine to ensure everything they passed through was controlled, pacified, and stabilized. This is way more ground than the Kharkiv advance, IIRC.

News Years in Armiansk!
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Hey, I'm with you on what they SHOULD do. I think I posted "Attack toward Meltipol!" 1000 pages ago. From what I've seen though, they just don't stick their necks out.

I was annoyed when the Ukrainians stopped at Kupiansk. There's a time to pause and there's a time to keep going and to me, that was a time to keep go, go, go. Instead, the Ukrainians seem to have turned left to liberate the rest of Kharkiv Oblast which is nice for their citizens there but was a complete distraction from capturing Svatove and getting a start on Starobilsk.

Then they attacked down the Dnepr against the Russians in Kherson Oblast -- the most conservative option available (as opposed to down the Ingolets, say).

BUT, they know their capabilities better than I do, and probably have a better handle on the political consequences of a failure.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:40:48 AM EDT
[#35]
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I can't muster sympathy for suffering and dead orcs, but let's take a minute to appreciate how depressing this scene is. Here's a rascist invader, presumably a conscript. I don't think he looks very well equipped, do you? Doesn't that look like an older helmet? And coat? He's obviously already injured, see the half-shredded coat with the polyfill lining exposed, and apparently bloodied. Where is his battle buddy? He's injured, and left alone in a trench with one or two drones after him? Why was nobody helping him to safety? Where is the rest of his unit, are they not looking for the one who's lost? This guy died alone, in a foreign country his dictator invaded for no good reason, with no one to help or comfort him. Oh, sure, fuck that guy. But what this little scene says about Russian military discipline and military culture is pretty telling. Ukraine will win.
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
3 grenades dropped on a Russian soldier, he throws or attempts to throw 2 of them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yn1naz/a_ukrainian_drone_dropping_multiple_grenades_on_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb

I can't muster sympathy for suffering and dead orcs, but let's take a minute to appreciate how depressing this scene is. Here's a rascist invader, presumably a conscript. I don't think he looks very well equipped, do you? Doesn't that look like an older helmet? And coat? He's obviously already injured, see the half-shredded coat with the polyfill lining exposed, and apparently bloodied. Where is his battle buddy? He's injured, and left alone in a trench with one or two drones after him? Why was nobody helping him to safety? Where is the rest of his unit, are they not looking for the one who's lost? This guy died alone, in a foreign country his dictator invaded for no good reason, with no one to help or comfort him. Oh, sure, fuck that guy. But what this little scene says about Russian military discipline and military culture is pretty telling. Ukraine will win.

I have a significant amount of sympathy for the human suffering and waste of the ground level people.
For the decision-makers and propagandists - none.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:47:30 AM EDT
[#36]
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Originally Posted By vahog:


I don't think we'll see either. The Ukrainian offensives haven't taken many risks. I don't see an air assault or an airdrop across the Dnepr in their hand. It would be totally out of character -- it's something they have no experience with. And I certainly don't see them channeling Gavin and Robert Redford and trying it by water.

I would think the Ukrainians would shift east of the Dnepr Reservoir and attack toward Melitopol or SW along the left bank of the Dnepr reservoir.

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Originally Posted By vahog:
Originally Posted By m35ben:
Air assault maybe.  Air drop I don't see as a good Idea.


I don't think we'll see either. The Ukrainian offensives haven't taken many risks. I don't see an air assault or an airdrop across the Dnepr in their hand. It would be totally out of character -- it's something they have no experience with. And I certainly don't see them channeling Gavin and Robert Redford and trying it by water.

I would think the Ukrainians would shift east of the Dnepr Reservoir and attack toward Melitopol or SW along the left bank of the Dnepr reservoir.


So far they’ve held steictly to the first rule of asymmetric war - play not to lose.  It’s their country, they have plenty of manpower and territory to play with.  They can and will suffer casualties for years to bleed Russia to death.  Russia simply can’t suffer 500KIA per day indefinitely.  Time is on Ukraine’s side so long as they don’t take unreasonable risks, which they won’t.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:50:09 AM EDT
[#37]
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Originally Posted By dillydilly:

Rekt
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Originally Posted By dillydilly:
Originally Posted By SoCalExile:

Rekt

This is the one represented as a bike hitting a mine a couple of days ago.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 12:54:11 AM EDT
[#38]
Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity
The city is also establishing 1,000 heating centers for its 3 million residents, as Russia pounds away at civilian targets.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/world/europe/kyiv-ukraine-electricity-russia-infrastructure.html

KYIV, Ukraine — As they struggle to maintain an electricity grid heavily damaged by Russian missiles, officials in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, say they have begun planning for a once unthinkable possibility: a complete blackout that would require the evacuation of the city’s approximately three million remaining residents.

The situation is already so dire, with 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure damaged or destroyed, that municipal workers are setting up 1,000 heating shelters that can double as bunkers while engineers try to fix bombed-out power stations without the needed equipment.

The tremendous strain on Ukraine’s ability to provide power is the result of the widespread bombardment by Russian forces of critical energy infrastructure across the country, a tactic that analysts say President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has resorted to as his troops have suffered repeated setbacks on the battlefield.

The damage caused by the Russian strikes has heaped new suffering on Ukraine’s civilians and forced officials to reckon with the possibility that further damage could render them unable to provide basic services.

“We understand that if Russia continues such attacks, we may lose our entire electricity system,” Roman Tkachuk, the director of security for the Kyiv municipal government, said in an interview, speaking of the city.

Officials in the capital have been told that they would be likely to have at least 12 hours’ notice that the grid was on the verge of failure. If it reaches that point, Mr. Tkachuk said, “we will start informing people and requesting them to leave.”

For now at least, the situation is manageable, and there were no indications that large numbers of civilians were fleeing Kyiv, he said. But that would change quickly if the services that relied on city power stopped.

“If there’s no power, there will be no water and no sewage,” he said. “That’s why currently the government and city administration are taking all possible measures to protect our power supply system.”


Link Posted: 11/6/2022 1:00:15 AM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By realwar:



Says you have to login to see it. Youtube version.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVRe_KX_9e4
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Like several that showed me, just replace Twitter.com with nitter.net.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 1:28:09 AM EDT
[#40]
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Originally Posted By RunnngCircles:


Thats F1 grenade with shortened fuse. Normal delay 4 seconds and the grenade is dropped with the spoon still in.
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Originally Posted By RunnngCircles:
Originally Posted By Dagger41:
Some sort of delayed fuse ???
Guy just rocking back and forth waiting for the end. Damned knarly right there.





Thats F1 grenade with shortened fuse. Normal delay 4 seconds and the grenade is dropped with the spoon still in.


It looks like a standard UZRGM fuze but with a safety style clip around the fuze body and spoon (think ziptie). The grenade impact dislodges the safety clip or the spoon and the striker impacts the primer and the 4 second delay begins. About 5 seconds passed from the grenade impact on whatever he's holding up to the explosion.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 1:43:49 AM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

So far they’ve held steictly to the first rule of asymmetric war - play not to lose.  It’s their country, they have plenty of manpower and territory to play with.  They can and will suffer casualties for years to bleed Russia to death.  Russia simply can’t suffer 500KIA per day indefinitely.  Time is on Ukraine’s side so long as they don’t take unreasonable risks, which they won’t.
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That's not entirely true, I think.  You'd have to be a pretty bad student of history to assume that western Europe and the US will support you indefinitely.  If I were the Ukraine Army G3, I'd be terrified of any operational pause that lets the Russians find a way to broker a ceasefire.  As long as they continue to push forward, I'd say they can tell the Russians to FO.  If the line settled in for a bit, there's a real chance western support loses interest and Russia would, assuming they're not all retarded (I know, but despite all the evidence, it's never a good idea to base your plans on your opponent continuing to be an idiot) jump at a chance for a ceasefire that would, effectively, let them keep whatever ground they hold at that moment.  Let's be brutally honest, if the flow of western arms stops, Russia has a pretty good chance to at least force a stalemate, if not an outright victory at this point.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 2:40:51 AM EDT
[#42]
I really hope aid doesn't stop...

Link Posted: 11/6/2022 2:46:32 AM EDT
[#43]
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Originally Posted By Jozsi:
I really hope aid doesn't stop...

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It would ensure victory for Russia if it does. I am so disappointed in "conservatives" and their stupidity when it comes to foreign relations. Isolationism is not a viable strategy and Russia is absolutely our enemy. They've proven that time and time again. Letting Ukraine destroy their conventional forces with no US lives lost is the bargain of the century. We've spent Trillions on holding off Russia. Now we're destroying them for less than 100 Billion in weapons and aid.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 2:56:22 AM EDT
[#44]
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 3:34:33 AM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By Capta:
More details on the Russian infantry battalion allegedly wiped out.  Started with 570 mobiks, finished the next day with 29 unwounded survivors, 12 wounded.  529 KIA according to a survivor.  Also claims another full battalion was destroyed before them.  Paints a completely FUBAR picture of the state of the Russian army in the area.  (Unconfirmed)

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/5/7375139/

Unknown parties jam Russian military channels with 8-bit music:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ymvv7k/jamming_attempts_on_russian_military_radio_were/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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It does help either that they're getting like 15 minutes of training on how to use an AK. Then they're sent to combat zones. It's so crazy I feel like we're living in a alternate reality. No real country would tolerate the govt sending their young men off to war like that.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 4:12:49 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Ave] [#46]
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Originally Posted By Jozsi:
I really hope aid doesn't stop...

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It won't. Doing so has no real electoral traction.

Moreover, even it it does end it wouldn't be on a switch. The procurement and delivery process isn't instantaneous. It does not start instantly, nor does it end instantly.


There are already contracts that will take years to fulfill, with funding allocated and to some degree disseminated. Could those arrangements be broken? Potentially, but I doubt anyone would bother.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 5:00:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime] [#47]



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-05/australian-man-trevor-kjeldal-killed-in-ukraine-dfat-says/101620704





Those cell towers that were destroyed about two days ago-
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3608607-zsu-vidbili-vorozi-ataki-v-cotiroh-oblastah.html

On November 5 of this year, the occupiers sent messages to the subscribers of Russian mobile operators in Kherson with a warning about the alleged preparation of a mass attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and with an appeal to leave the right-bank part of the city as soon as possible. At the same time, in some settlements, the occupiers destroy the towers of Ukrainian mobile operators.

Link Posted: 11/6/2022 5:07:19 AM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By vahog:


Hey, I'm with you on what they SHOULD do. I think I posted "Attack toward Meltipol!" 1000 pages ago. From what I've seen though, they just don't stick their necks out.

I was annoyed when the Ukrainians stopped at Kupiansk. There's a time to pause and there's a time to keep going and to me, that was a time to keep go, go, go. Instead, the Ukrainians seem to have turned left to liberate the rest of Kharkiv Oblast which is nice for their citizens there but was a complete distraction from capturing Svatove and getting a start on Starobilsk.

Then they attacked down the Dnepr against the Russians in Kherson Oblast -- the most conservative option available (as opposed to down the Ingolets, say).

BUT, they know their capabilities better than I do, and probably have a better handle on the political consequences of a failure.
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Obviously, I/we dont have the intel picture of the RU defenses but I generally agree. We have seen the RU lines break or even collapse when pushed hard enough and once their front lines are punched they tend to panic and flee. Maybe the Russians have made some adjustments to prevent this, defense more in depth maybe. Or maybe there is intel that the RU has positioned some chem. warfare in the area.

Without knowing more intel, I believe that bold and daring may be safer than slugging it out in Khersan even if it's defended only by RU mobiks backed by wagner assholes on the other bank waiting to shoot anyone fleeing.

It seems to me that the UA (and the RU) like arty duels the most, especially when they have superiority, rather than true combined arms attacks.
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 5:10:58 AM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By Capta:

I have a significant amount of sympathy for the human suffering and waste of the ground level people.
For the decision-makers and propagandists - none.
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I agree and I'd rather that unarmed, wounded guy make it home to tell everyone about his time in Ukraine. It almost seemed like a waste of grenades.

I'd love to hear a phone intercept of THAT GUY's call to his wife after the day he was having!
Link Posted: 11/6/2022 5:16:37 AM EDT
[#50]
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Originally Posted By walkinginadangerzone:


It looks like a standard UZRGM fuze but with a safety style clip around the fuze body and spoon (think ziptie). The grenade impact dislodges the safety clip or the spoon and the striker impacts the primer and the 4 second delay begins. About 5 seconds passed from the grenade impact on whatever he's holding up to the explosion.
View Quote

They must be low on the modified 30mm VOG grenades which seem MUCH more efficient. Early in the war they were dropping the RKG AT grenades, modified PRG rounds, all types of stuff.

Maybe all the glorious 32round Mk19 belt-dumps could be stopped and the HEDP given to the drone warriors?
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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 2960 of 5591)
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