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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:10:05 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Exactly. They had to construct and man hundreds of miles of defensive barriers and artillery not knowing exactly where it would happen. Even the German generals who knew it was coming soon were out of position and some artillery not ready on D-Day. The chair is against the wall. "John has a long moustache, John has a long moustache" |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:13:10 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: I just don't understand how they keep wasting their cruise missiles knowing that Ukraine right now has around a 90% success rate of defending against such ... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: Originally Posted By RockNwood: I hadn’t heard that a surveillance drone was shot down. Excellent!!
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_1082-2832890.jpg I just don't understand how they keep wasting their cruise missiles knowing that Ukraine right now has around a 90% success rate of defending against such ... Perhaps that is ALL they can do. They are running out of even the older T72 tanks. Their last sustained massed armor assault (Vuhledar) was a catastrophic loss. Their last sustained infantry assault (Bakhmut) was a Pyrrhic victory. They have already started losing training cadre in aircraft shoot downs. Patriot has demolished whatever air advantage they had. I think these missile attacks are the last desperate means that they can use, even if little effect. Even these are greatly reduced from 3-6 months ago. Their production is only at 35-50 missiles and drones per month. Sure they have thousands of S-300 but those are intended for air defense and every one they use to hit apartment buildings or open field us one less they have to protect Moscow. |
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MD, USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:13:44 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: No way. Ukraine had no interest in land giveaway negotiations. Only Russia. The negotiations start when Russia has left Ukraine. They have to advertise an offensive because they need western support for the buildup and it will be hard to deny completely. How and where it unfolds is the unknown. It seems they are going to continue shaping and degrading logistics missions until Russia is forced to over react. And then strike when they are out of position. I’m still holding to my June 17 prediction. 😀 Well, it has been called a "spring offensive". Then that would mean the official start date is before 6/21. No? |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:14:04 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: The “leak” is seeming more and more like an intentional plant. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:  Again the reason I did not trust or believe the information in those leaks was real.
That would be dumb even for them. If we assume the leaks date to prior to Patriot, SAMPT, and most NASAMS, it would really only apply to Soviet gear like S300 and BUK. They’re perfectly aware that western systems are present in numbers now, but they’re still flinging LR PGMs like it was the start of the war. I think it’s either a political demand (from Putin) to show results against western systems, or they’re desperate enough to use anything and everything while it can do them some good. See the leaked document below, it mentions Patriot lol. Also says the systems cannot be "layered"  It is pure disinformation in my opinion to lure the Russians to waste precious missile resources.Anyone worried about their clearance, please don't click the link. Click To View Spoiler The “leak” is seeming more and more like an intentional plant. Yep, especially when the Russian sources posted it up so quickly. The leaker is a known Russia supporter, so they were probably fed info. Just my opinion, I've seen it happen before. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:15:50 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: Ukraine will align with the the V4 first including the Baltics ... I've said this many times in the last 10 years ... the V4 (hoping Hungary comes around) and other former Soviet states will form better relationships since Crimea '14 ... Poland at this point is going full up armament of their country ... even beyond Germany and France ... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: Originally Posted By ILfreedom: Right now I believe Zelensky is kissing the ass of anyone who can send weapons to Ukraine. Whether he embraces the Euro type globalism post war is doubtful in my mind. The Ukrainian people aren't near as left as Macron might think. The Poles definitely are not. Ukraine should join Nato if given the chance, but keep the EU at arms distance. Ukraine will align with the the V4 first including the Baltics ... I've said this many times in the last 10 years ... the V4 (hoping Hungary comes around) and other former Soviet states will form better relationships since Crimea '14 ... Poland at this point is going full up armament of their country ... even beyond Germany and France ... It will be great to see that new center of European power rise out of this with the strong bonds forged in war. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:16:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: yekimak]
[#6]
⚡️We have approved the dates for the start of the movement of our troops, the decisions have been made, I thank the brigades that prepared for this - Zelensky. Seen this on a few tg channels but not on the official Zelensky channel. https://t.me/censor_net/30281 |
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USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:21:04 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AWMCoalition: Can you explain the part about how this affects UA truckers when it's Russian and Belarusian vehicles being prohibited from entering Poland? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AWMCoalition: Originally Posted By strykr: Originally Posted By Schmigs: Originally Posted By strykr: No, it is a jobs program. It is aimed to protect the jobs of Polish truck drivers in the EU. Ukrainian truckers have no right to earn a wage in the EU. They probably want Ukraine/Russia to unload the cargo and pay them to deliver the goods to their destination instead. The Ukrainians are allowed to work and live freely for 3 years from June of 2022. Thanks, I was not aware of that. Still, Poland is banning vehicles not people so I guess their decision does not violate that, but has the same effect. Poland wants their cut of the EU money going towards Ukraine so the truckers don't turn against their own government. Can you explain the part about how this affects UA truckers when it's Russian and Belarusian vehicles being prohibited from entering Poland? Ah, my bad. I thought Ukrainian trucks were also included in the ban. They have previously banned grain imports from Ukraine to protect their market, which is pretty much the main product Ukraine has for export. They have also banned the transit of such goods through their territory. I must have mixed these two things up. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-government-bans-grain-food-imports-ukraine-2023-04-15/ |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:23:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Auto5guy: That's not targeted sanctions. It's essentially a full out embargo by Poland Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Auto5guy: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Poland makes it permanent. I don't know if they will still have access to a port through Lithuania or Latvia but Poland cuts off their land access and several ports.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_1086-2832905.jpg That's not targeted sanctions. It's essentially a full out embargo by Poland Exactly. An act of war. Apparently Poland had its fill of infiltration, surveillance and sabotage (also an act of war). Any ESCALATION by Belarus or Russia will be met with similar strong response. Message sent. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:30:33 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: It seems like russia has always had the tactic of telling their own soldiers they definitely are going to die if they don't move forward and try to kill the enemy. More and more and more cannon fodder until they win. It doesn't matter if they are trained. Cannon fodder being managed by corrupt nationalists/communists. They just destroy everything in front of them until they can flood the enemy with enough cannon fodder to win. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: People have argued that Russia, with a population of 140 million has a huge advantage over Ukraine's 40+mil. But finding MOTIVATED AND TRAINABLE soldiers is a whole other matter. Probably Russia's population has maybe 0.5% of the population that qualify and most of them have already been mobilized and expended. At this point, I think finding motivated patriots willing to die in Ukraine are hard to find in Russia and press-ganged and abused mobiks who just want to survive will not cut it. Meanwhile in Ukraine, probably 20% of the population are motivated and trainable (I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass but hopefully you get my point). And then we have the issue of equipment... It seems like russia has always had the tactic of telling their own soldiers they definitely are going to die if they don't move forward and try to kill the enemy. More and more and more cannon fodder until they win. It doesn't matter if they are trained. Cannon fodder being managed by corrupt nationalists/communists. They just destroy everything in front of them until they can flood the enemy with enough cannon fodder to win. Reading accounts of the wars in Finland and the Eastern Front it was exactly the same way. In spite of whatever technology advances they made they never abandoned the brutal disregard for human life of theirs or the enemy. Their tactics and strategies have not changed one iota over the last 80+ years. The problem for them is they are no longer a country of 280 million in a “patriotic” war of existence and can get away with mobilizing millions. On the Eastern Front they lost 3 million as prisoners of war, and 3.5 million casualties. Putin couldn’t even raise the last round of 400K with severe penalties. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:32:52 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: The Ministry of Defense has begun the development of amendments to the Regulation on military service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine by citizens of Ukraine The norms of service in peacetime and in a special period will be clearly demarcated and regulated. Military personnel will be appointed to positions with staff-position categories that correspond to their actual military ranks; The minimum and maximum terms of service and stay in a military rank will be established; Appointment to higher positions will be based on the rating principle; The rotation of military personnel in relevant positions will be introduced in order to gain the necessary experience; At the heart of the changes are NATO's personnel management standards. https://t.me/operativnoZSU/98521 That should greatly enhance long term survivability and passing on experience. Make learning institutionalized and durable. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:34:37 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Shadyman: Russia is running out of time, demographics are working against them. Plus, all their young smart tech people are getting out if they can. Russia can keep on burning through all the outlying provinces young people. But there are rumblings out there from the mothers and wives that they are taking the brunt of the punishment of Putin’s War. And Putin’s government is doing everything to protect the middle class that lives around Moscow and St. Pete. Putin is waiting and hoping Trump will win the election so he can manipulate him into cutting off help to Ukraine and long term, Europe and NATO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Shadyman: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: People have argued that Russia, with a population of 140 million has a huge advantage over Ukraine's 40+mil. But finding MOTIVATED AND TRAINABLE soldiers is a whole other matter. Probably Russia's population has maybe 0.5% of the population that qualify and most of them have already been mobilized and expended. At this point, I think finding motivated patriots willing to die in Ukraine are hard to find in Russia and press-ganged and abused mobiks who just want to survive will not cut it. Meanwhile in Ukraine, probably 20% of the population are motivated and trainable (I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass but hopefully you get my point). And then we have the issue of equipment... Russia is running out of time, demographics are working against them. Plus, all their young smart tech people are getting out if they can. Russia can keep on burning through all the outlying provinces young people. But there are rumblings out there from the mothers and wives that they are taking the brunt of the punishment of Putin’s War. And Putin’s government is doing everything to protect the middle class that lives around Moscow and St. Pete. Putin is waiting and hoping Trump will win the election so he can manipulate him into cutting off help to Ukraine and long term, Europe and NATO. Precisely. And I don’t believe that strategy of Putin’s will survive 2023. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:37:23 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Reading accounts of the wars in Finland and the Eastern Front it was exactly the same way. In spite of whatever technology advances they made they never abandoned the brutal disregard for human life of theirs or the enemy. Their tactics and strategies have not changed one iota over the last 80+ years. The problem for them is they are no longer a country of 280 million in a “patriotic” war of existence and can get away with mobilizing millions. On the Eastern Front they lost 3 million as prisoners of war, and 3.5 million casualties. Putin couldn’t even raise the last round of 400K with severe penalties. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: People have argued that Russia, with a population of 140 million has a huge advantage over Ukraine's 40+mil. But finding MOTIVATED AND TRAINABLE soldiers is a whole other matter. Probably Russia's population has maybe 0.5% of the population that qualify and most of them have already been mobilized and expended. At this point, I think finding motivated patriots willing to die in Ukraine are hard to find in Russia and press-ganged and abused mobiks who just want to survive will not cut it. Meanwhile in Ukraine, probably 20% of the population are motivated and trainable (I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass but hopefully you get my point). And then we have the issue of equipment... It seems like russia has always had the tactic of telling their own soldiers they definitely are going to die if they don't move forward and try to kill the enemy. More and more and more cannon fodder until they win. It doesn't matter if they are trained. Cannon fodder being managed by corrupt nationalists/communists. They just destroy everything in front of them until they can flood the enemy with enough cannon fodder to win. Reading accounts of the wars in Finland and the Eastern Front it was exactly the same way. In spite of whatever technology advances they made they never abandoned the brutal disregard for human life of theirs or the enemy. Their tactics and strategies have not changed one iota over the last 80+ years. The problem for them is they are no longer a country of 280 million in a “patriotic” war of existence and can get away with mobilizing millions. On the Eastern Front they lost 3 million as prisoners of war, and 3.5 million casualties. Putin couldn’t even raise the last round of 400K with severe penalties. You used the term "getaway with". I think Putin is perfectly willing to sacrifice any number of soldiers/citizens in order to win. And I don't believe anybody's going to stand up to put a stop to it. I think the only question is if doing so will wreck everything else to the point that things get crazy. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:37:31 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackHoleSon: Also I think misdirection/sleight of hand announcements are more effective against a huge central planning, top down command. It can't pivot very fast so if your probes or feints are working, keep doing it. When you see the slow, lumbering machine finally start to pivot then you change quicker than they can adapt Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackHoleSon: Originally Posted By thehun06: and how much do you know about war planning/psyops/deflection...  You have to remember that advertising publicly a counter-offensive also helps to put efforts on armament coming in ... The public incursions into Russia are a way to also get the Russian people to go hmmm...what is going on ... it makes Putin (if he is smart) re-think logistics .. Another point is getting an established air defense network up and ready ... which is happening and most crucial effort to SAVE civilian lives because the Ruskies just target whatever ... for the inevitable supply of western jets and for a potential no-fly zone should one be established ... Also I think misdirection/sleight of hand announcements are more effective against a huge central planning, top down command. It can't pivot very fast so if your probes or feints are working, keep doing it. When you see the slow, lumbering machine finally start to pivot then you change quicker than they can adapt Yeah I don’t think Russia has an OODA loop! They have the DAAAA stick: Decide Act Act Act Act. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:40:27 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Current situation in the Bakhmut direction, from the Ministry of Education and Culture The intensity of the enemy's offensive actions has significantly decreased because he is replacing troops from Wagner units with regular units and is trying to stabilize the defense in this direction. Our troops significantly complicate this process for the enemy by their actions. At the same time, the intensity of enemy artillery shelling did not decrease. Bakhmut. The Wagnerites withdraw their units, and the regular army takes their place. Our troops control the outskirts of Bakhmut in the southwestern part in the "Airplane" area. Enemy units are also being replaced in the north of the Bakhmut suburb. To the south of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to strengthen and increase army units. As of yesterday and this morning, the advance on the flanks is not being carried out in connection with the performance of other tasks. https://t.me/operativnoZSU/98493 ‼️The head of the PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin said that the champagne factory in Bakhmut must be returned to the Ukrainian owners, or a solution should be found on how to hand over the goods or equipment. "Private property is inviolable," Prigozhin assured, and also added: "The Artemiv factory of champagne wines is under the control of PVK "Wagner". All products, everything was recorded on video, and everything was counted, including containers of champagne that have not yet been poured. Every enterprise has owners. And no war between states, if the invading state wants to preserve its person, can be with the seizure of someone's private property. State property in the framework of a conflict between states can be alienated, while private property is inviolable. It is necessary to find a solution, how to settle the issue of private property. In the near future, we will transfer the plant to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation." Bakhmut. Life | Chat | Write to us https://t.me/bakhmut_life/26886
Haha! Prigorzin talking about respecting private property is a hoot! He is looking for a payout! 😂😂😂😂 |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:44:42 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Yeah I don’t think Russia has an OODA loop! They have the DAAAA stick: Decide Act Act Act Act. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By BlackHoleSon: Originally Posted By thehun06: and how much do you know about war planning/psyops/deflection... You have to remember that advertising publicly a counter-offensive also helps to put efforts on armament coming in ... The public incursions into Russia are a way to also get the Russian people to go hmmm...what is going on ... it makes Putin (if he is smart) re-think logistics .. Another point is getting an established air defense network up and ready ... which is happening and most crucial effort to SAVE civilian lives because the Ruskies just target whatever ... for the inevitable supply of western jets and for a potential no-fly zone should one be established ... Also I think misdirection/sleight of hand announcements are more effective against a huge central planning, top down command. It can't pivot very fast so if your probes or feints are working, keep doing it. When you see the slow, lumbering machine finally start to pivot then you change quicker than they can adapt Yeah I don’t think Russia has an OODA loop! They have the DAAAA stick: Decide Act Act Act Act. It requires a fifth step for the Russians. DARRR Decide Act React React React |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:45:58 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Oooo, awkward.
Wait wait guys! Am I the only Putin bitch here?! Come on guys join the Russian Collapse Coalition. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:49:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#17]
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:50:53 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Haha! Prigorzin talking about respecting private property is a hoot! He is looking for a payout! 😂😂😂😂 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Prime: Current situation in the Bakhmut direction, from the Ministry of Education and Culture The intensity of the enemy's offensive actions has significantly decreased because he is replacing troops from Wagner units with regular units and is trying to stabilize the defense in this direction. Our troops significantly complicate this process for the enemy by their actions. At the same time, the intensity of enemy artillery shelling did not decrease. Bakhmut. The Wagnerites withdraw their units, and the regular army takes their place. Our troops control the outskirts of Bakhmut in the southwestern part in the "Airplane" area. Enemy units are also being replaced in the north of the Bakhmut suburb. To the south of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to strengthen and increase army units. As of yesterday and this morning, the advance on the flanks is not being carried out in connection with the performance of other tasks. https://t.me/operativnoZSU/98493 ‼️The head of the PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin said that the champagne factory in Bakhmut must be returned to the Ukrainian owners, or a solution should be found on how to hand over the goods or equipment. "Private property is inviolable," Prigozhin assured, and also added: "The Artemiv factory of champagne wines is under the control of PVK "Wagner". All products, everything was recorded on video, and everything was counted, including containers of champagne that have not yet been poured. Every enterprise has owners. And no war between states, if the invading state wants to preserve its person, can be with the seizure of someone's private property. State property in the framework of a conflict between states can be alienated, while private property is inviolable. It is necessary to find a solution, how to settle the issue of private property. In the near future, we will transfer the plant to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation." Bakhmut. Life | Chat | Write to us https://t.me/bakhmut_life/26886
Haha! Prigorzin talking about respecting private property is a hoot! He is looking for a payout! 😂😂😂😂 I’m currently in France and hope the frenchies go open season on Wagner in Africa. I feel they are close to labeling them a full-fledged terrorist organization (gloves off internationally). |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 3:56:12 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Russia is fucked for the long term. Thet cannot abuse their populations like this (not to mention their neighbors who are now rabidly hostile and militarized against them) and there will be consequences eventually. I seriously doubt that Putin considers Trump as a good thing despite Trumps (unrealistic) words of a negotiated peace. Looking at both Xiden (who has already received millions from Russian oligarchs through Hunter and has a constant stream of escalation fear piss running down his leg) and Trump (who always tries to smooth talk adversaries but was the FIRST to send lethal aid to Ukraine, dropped the hammer on Wagners in Syria and fired Tomahawks over desert) and compare the two and tell me Xiden is the hawk that Putin should fear. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Shadyman: Russia is running out of time, demographics are working against them. Plus, all their young smart tech people are getting out if they can. Russia can keep on burning through all the outlying provinces young people. But there are rumblings out there from the mothers and wives that they are taking the brunt of the punishment of Putin’s War. And Putin’s government is doing everything to protect the middle class that lives around Moscow and St. Pete. Putin is waiting and hoping Trump will win the election so he can manipulate him into cutting off help to Ukraine and long term, Europe and NATO. Russia is fucked for the long term. Thet cannot abuse their populations like this (not to mention their neighbors who are now rabidly hostile and militarized against them) and there will be consequences eventually. I seriously doubt that Putin considers Trump as a good thing despite Trumps (unrealistic) words of a negotiated peace. Looking at both Xiden (who has already received millions from Russian oligarchs through Hunter and has a constant stream of escalation fear piss running down his leg) and Trump (who always tries to smooth talk adversaries but was the FIRST to send lethal aid to Ukraine, dropped the hammer on Wagners in Syria and fired Tomahawks over desert) and compare the two and tell me Xiden is the hawk that Putin should fear. 
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MD, USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:00:56 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: No, it is a jobs program. It is aimed to protect the jobs of Polish truck drivers in the EU. Ukrainian truckers have no right to earn a wage in the EU. They probably want Ukraine/Russia to unload the cargo and pay them to deliver the goods to their destination instead. Which jobs program are you referring to? Freight carriers or Russia attempting to avoid sanctions |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:03:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kagetora: That's what I was thinking too. I mean, having to pack them 2-3 to a spot is great from the standpoint of "we've been given lots of planes" but not great when it comes to missile attacks on an airfield, obviously. But, looking at the pic...where the hell else would they park them? Out in the field? On the runway? I don't know how many capable airfields Ukraine actually has or where they're located (possibly too close to the front), and maybe the ones they do have all look like this, a traffic jam of planes. I certainly hope so. But if they can, maybe they should fly some of those to emptier fields. In any event, there could be several explanations for that close-packing. Only one of them is ignorance/stupidity, and considering what I've seen from them in the past, as well as the advisors in theater, I'm going to discount it for now. I'm really hoping it's just "we're full...can we clear out some local mall parking lots?" Slava Ukraini. Heroyam Slava. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kagetora: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: No other details, but this Russian report is all I have at the moment, and he has posted stuff that is very incorrect at times. Don't know when the satellite photo was taken, but I would not be keeping the Su-24's packed together in revetments like that.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxTENXAX0AAS9vK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 If that picture is current, there are a LOT of aircraft piled up in there. Hopefully the loss of 2-5 will not effect them. That's what I was thinking too. I mean, having to pack them 2-3 to a spot is great from the standpoint of "we've been given lots of planes" but not great when it comes to missile attacks on an airfield, obviously. But, looking at the pic...where the hell else would they park them? Out in the field? On the runway? I don't know how many capable airfields Ukraine actually has or where they're located (possibly too close to the front), and maybe the ones they do have all look like this, a traffic jam of planes. I certainly hope so. But if they can, maybe they should fly some of those to emptier fields. In any event, there could be several explanations for that close-packing. Only one of them is ignorance/stupidity, and considering what I've seen from them in the past, as well as the advisors in theater, I'm going to discount it for now. I'm really hoping it's just "we're full...can we clear out some local mall parking lots?" Slava Ukraini. Heroyam Slava. Ukraine has done well with dispersing many aspects of its army. They need to focus on building a bunch of airstrips and get good at runway repairs. Make sure they are within the ADA umbrella. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:12:26 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hate_Work: Which jobs program are you referring to? Freight carriers or Russia attempting to avoid sanctions Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hate_Work: Originally Posted By strykr: No, it is a jobs program. It is aimed to protect the jobs of Polish truck drivers in the EU. Ukrainian truckers have no right to earn a wage in the EU. They probably want Ukraine/Russia to unload the cargo and pay them to deliver the goods to their destination instead. Which jobs program are you referring to? Freight carriers or Russia attempting to avoid sanctions I got it mixed up but basically the first. Polish truckers watching Ukrainian trucks delivering cheap products across Europe undercutting even Poland in price. All the while they are not getting delivery contracts. It is a problem because the Eastern EU members are shouldering a lot of the economic cost for the war, while Western members benefit from the lower prices. "Polish carriers claim that following European and Ukrainian regulations that came into force last summer, rates for freight have collapsed after Ukrainian companies were granted nearly unrestricted access to the Polish market." |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:13:06 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Haha! Prigorzin talking about respecting private property is a hoot! He is looking for a payout! 😂😂😂😂 He's a giant piece of shit and the world would be off better if he was dead but he's played whatever hand he's been dealt better than anyone else politically in Russia. He's too valuable for them to remove him but he knows he has enough leverage to call anyone out. Same with his political gesture of making sure the West saw him send our coffin back. He's done much better at avoiding complete persona non grata than Putin or anyone else in line. Basically their Littlefinger. He's a dangerous man |
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USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:13:50 PM EDT
[#24]
Keep the hollowing out pressure up so they are rotten and weak from inside then punch through and wreck their lines.
I am cautiously optimistic that the Russian army will get popped like a massive abscess when UA forces jump off for the maneuver part of the counter, esp down south. I’ve got June 10 - 18 penciled in for go time. Wx and lunar calendar are what I’m looking at since order of battle and end strength are black boxes. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:20:54 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxRk7QFWAAEoWvN?format=jpg&name=900x900  |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:24:25 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Well done video tribute! The inclusion of “shrubbery” was top notch. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:25:04 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hate_Work: Well, it has been called a "spring offensive". Then that would mean the official start date is before 6/21. No? Has Ukraine called it that? I seem to remember them referring to the counteroffensive, and that's about as descriptive/definite as they got. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:26:05 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Can’t eject from an MI-8. Those are highly trained crew going down with those ELINT birds. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By kncook: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Russian helicopters disappearing now. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1663167394578137089 In the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, in the city of Klintsy, a helicopter fell - Mash. Before falling, he circled over the city for a long time, after that he collapsed on a house in the private sector. There is no information about the victims yet. I wonder if it is an ELINT or ECM Mi-8 eating a missile.
Definitely seems like a deliberate effort to me. Those ELINT/ECM helicopters could also be DF-ing on Ukrainian units, and triangulating would be a good way to track deployments before an offensive. Can’t eject from an MI-8. Those are highly trained crew going down with those ELINT birds. Yeah on the previous hit of the two EW helos one of the crew was a trainer. DoubleGood dead. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:29:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By K0UA: "John has a long moustache, John has a long moustache" Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By K0UA: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Exactly. They had to construct and man hundreds of miles of defensive barriers and artillery not knowing exactly where it would happen. Even the German generals who knew it was coming soon were out of position and some artillery not ready on D-Day. The chair is against the wall. "John has a long moustache, John has a long moustache" UA really needs to use one of those code phrases for its grand assault. Or at least Irene! Irene! Fuckin’ Irene! |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:31:23 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hate_Work: Well, it has been called a "spring offensive". Then that would mean the official start date is before 6/21. No? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hate_Work: Originally Posted By RockNwood: No way. Ukraine had no interest in land giveaway negotiations. Only Russia. The negotiations start when Russia has left Ukraine. They have to advertise an offensive because they need western support for the buildup and it will be hard to deny completely. How and where it unfolds is the unknown. It seems they are going to continue shaping and degrading logistics missions until Russia is forced to over react. And then strike when they are out of position. I’m still holding to my June 17 prediction. 😀 Well, it has been called a "spring offensive". Then that would mean the official start date is before 6/21. No?
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:40:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: You used the term "getaway with". I think Putin is perfectly willing to sacrifice any number of soldiers/citizens in order to win. And I don't believe anybody's going to stand up to put a stop to it. I think the only question is if doing so will wreck everything else to the point that things get crazy. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By stone-age: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: People have argued that Russia, with a population of 140 million has a huge advantage over Ukraine's 40+mil. But finding MOTIVATED AND TRAINABLE soldiers is a whole other matter. Probably Russia's population has maybe 0.5% of the population that qualify and most of them have already been mobilized and expended. At this point, I think finding motivated patriots willing to die in Ukraine are hard to find in Russia and press-ganged and abused mobiks who just want to survive will not cut it. Meanwhile in Ukraine, probably 20% of the population are motivated and trainable (I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass but hopefully you get my point). And then we have the issue of equipment... It seems like russia has always had the tactic of telling their own soldiers they definitely are going to die if they don't move forward and try to kill the enemy. More and more and more cannon fodder until they win. It doesn't matter if they are trained. Cannon fodder being managed by corrupt nationalists/communists. They just destroy everything in front of them until they can flood the enemy with enough cannon fodder to win. Reading accounts of the wars in Finland and the Eastern Front it was exactly the same way. In spite of whatever technology advances they made they never abandoned the brutal disregard for human life of theirs or the enemy. Their tactics and strategies have not changed one iota over the last 80+ years. The problem for them is they are no longer a country of 280 million in a “patriotic” war of existence and can get away with mobilizing millions. On the Eastern Front they lost 3 million as prisoners of war, and 3.5 million casualties. Putin couldn’t even raise the last round of 400K with severe penalties. You used the term "getaway with". I think Putin is perfectly willing to sacrifice any number of soldiers/citizens in order to win. And I don't believe anybody's going to stand up to put a stop to it. I think the only question is if doing so will wreck everything else to the point that things get crazy. I base my comments on Putin being put into his position by oligarchs. They are mutually supporting. He allows them to rob the State and they allow him to rule. At some point the oligarchs realize their ability to steal is gravely at risk and decide someone else should rule. Same with the FSB. It is all about self interest. On the other side I think it is IMPOSSIBLE for Putin to conscript 1 million men in a year. Over 1 million military age males already emigrated in less than a year. Many are NOT answering the call of the recent 400K in spite of harsh economic and social penalties. And this is when he is targeting the despised outer provinces. 1917 could happen again but I think the oligarchs and FSB will act before then. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:42:00 PM EDT
[#32]
The 72nd brigade is preparing "gifts" for the occupiers in the Vugledarsky direction in order to prevent the offensive actions of the enemy.
Laying mines is a dangerous business, but our guys do it professionally and successfully, which in the future will bring a large number of losses among the personnel and equipment of our enemy. https://t.me/operativnoZSU/98549
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:43:34 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fike: It requires a fifth step for the Russians. DARRR Decide Act React React React Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fike: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By BlackHoleSon: Originally Posted By thehun06: and how much do you know about war planning/psyops/deflection... You have to remember that advertising publicly a counter-offensive also helps to put efforts on armament coming in ... The public incursions into Russia are a way to also get the Russian people to go hmmm...what is going on ... it makes Putin (if he is smart) re-think logistics .. Another point is getting an established air defense network up and ready ... which is happening and most crucial effort to SAVE civilian lives because the Ruskies just target whatever ... for the inevitable supply of western jets and for a potential no-fly zone should one be established ... Also I think misdirection/sleight of hand announcements are more effective against a huge central planning, top down command. It can't pivot very fast so if your probes or feints are working, keep doing it. When you see the slow, lumbering machine finally start to pivot then you change quicker than they can adapt Yeah I don’t think Russia has an OODA loop! They have the DAAAA stick: Decide Act Act Act Act. It requires a fifth step for the Russians. DARRR Decide Act React React React 😂😂 If only I could figure out a construct for the acronym DERP to describe their lack of accurate assessment of reality… |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:45:30 PM EDT
[#34]
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AL, USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:46:15 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: 😂😂 If only I could figure out a construct for the acronym DERP to describe their lack of accurate assessment of reality… I'll be honest, I stood in my garage for a good 5 min staring at my phone trying to shoehorn DURR into one but I felt the moment passed before creativity struck |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:48:30 PM EDT
[#36]
That would be a huge step for civilization. Wagner not only disrupts those third world countries but enriches its oligarch and GRU patrons. Dismantling Wagner world wide would hit hard at Russian foreign influence, Russian leadership wealth and military capabilities.
Mr Macron, do it! |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:51:52 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: 300 blk strikes again! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxRk7QFWAAEoWvN?format=jpg&name=900x900 Whatever you do DO NOT remove the 50 lb brake holding it together! |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:57:18 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By The_Gooch: I notice when Russians get precise hits, its at old Soviet facilities where they would have documented coordinate information in their archives. This recent old aircraft boneyard, the old ammunition storage site, and the rocket fuel disposal location. Makes a nice boom and headline for propaganda but largely irrelevant and ineffective. I hope Ukraine keeps the good stuff at new, post-Soviet locations. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By The_Gooch: Originally Posted By Dracster: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Very unfortunate. I guess the Russians got lucky? Falling debris or one of the Shitheads snuck through? No other details, but this Russian report is all I have at the moment, and he has posted stuff that is very incorrect at times. Don't know when the satellite photo was taken, but I would not be keeping the Su-24's packed together in revetments like that.
About the strike on the airfield near Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region The targets of today's nightly massive strike were many objects of the Ukrainian Air Force . At the moment, confirming data have been received about the hit of two cruise missiles and several attack drones "Geran-2" on the airfield near the town of Starokonstantinov. Coordinates: 49.746721, 27.268683 According to reports, as a result of the strike, two Su-24M fighters, a maintenance hangar and a fuel depot were damaged / destroyed, and damage to the runway was also reported. In addition, local residents report a strong fire at the airfield, which is still accompanied by smoldering fuel and lubricants, as well as multiple explosions that sounded after the impact https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxTENXAX0AAS9vK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 I think its misdirection. Ukraine inherited 120 Su-24s from the Soviet breakup. At the time of the 2014 invasion, they had about a dozen flyable. Two were claimed shot down. In 2019, they had also kicked off a rebuild/modernization program. When the 2022 invasion kicked off, they still, reportedly, had about a dozen flyable. The claims so far are 16 shot down and 6 destroyed on the ground. Obviously they had a few more flying than reported. There's right around 90 Su-24 in these photos. I think the doubles and triples are probably unflyable parts-donor aircraft. The ones stacked on top of each other definitely aren't flying. Starokonstantinov https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/Ukraine1_JPG-2833375.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/Ukraine2_JPG-2833376.JPG Bila Tserkva https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/Ukraine3_JPG-2833377.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/Ukraine4_jpg-2833381.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48680/Ukraine5_JPG-2833383.JPG This recent old aircraft boneyard, the old ammunition storage site, and the rocket fuel disposal location. Makes a nice boom and headline for propaganda but largely irrelevant and ineffective. I hope Ukraine keeps the good stuff at new, post-Soviet locations. This was suggested in one of the OSINT type videos a few weeks back... Perun or LazerPig or one of them I think it was. Basically, whomever picks the targets is doing so off of maps that are decades old. Kind of like how in the early part of the war, Russians used maps of the Chernobyl area that were "pre-1986" and then proceeded to dig trenches in highly radioactive soil.
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:57:39 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxUUUMxWAAka5yX?format=jpg&name=large
So disarming a people and then negotiating a ceasefire backed up by a permanent international force contingent hasn’t worked out too well? Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:58:19 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackHoleSon: I'll be honest, I stood in my garage for a good 5 min staring at my phone trying to shoehorn DURR into one but I felt the moment passed before creativity struck Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackHoleSon: Originally Posted By RockNwood: 😂😂 If only I could figure out a construct for the acronym DERP to describe their lack of accurate assessment of reality… I'll be honest, I stood in my garage for a good 5 min staring at my phone trying to shoehorn DURR into one but I felt the moment passed before creativity struck 
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Posted: 5/29/2023 4:59:39 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: I just don't understand how they keep wasting their cruise missiles knowing that Ukraine right now has around a 90% success rate of defending against such ... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thehun06: Originally Posted By RockNwood: I hadn’t heard that a surveillance drone was shot down. Excellent!!
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_1082-2832890.jpg I just don't understand how they keep wasting their cruise missiles knowing that Ukraine right now has around a 90% success rate of defending against such ... I know it sounds crazy, but taken in the context of everything else they do, it is consistent. When you are on the losing end, you always double, even triple down. If you are wasting your missiles every day, just make more of them, and shoot them too. If you send 10's of thousands of men to die in the meatgrinder for no, or very little gain, just send more. Not making sense is what Russia seems to do best. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:24:11 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By SoCalExile: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/177432/JiUDJsS_jpg-2832947.JPG |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:24:41 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: 😂😂 If only I could figure out a construct for the acronym DERP to describe their lack of accurate assessment of reality… Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By fike: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By BlackHoleSon: Originally Posted By thehun06: and how much do you know about war planning/psyops/deflection... You have to remember that advertising publicly a counter-offensive also helps to put efforts on armament coming in ... The public incursions into Russia are a way to also get the Russian people to go hmmm...what is going on ... it makes Putin (if he is smart) re-think logistics .. Another point is getting an established air defense network up and ready ... which is happening and most crucial effort to SAVE civilian lives because the Ruskies just target whatever ... for the inevitable supply of western jets and for a potential no-fly zone should one be established ... Also I think misdirection/sleight of hand announcements are more effective against a huge central planning, top down command. It can't pivot very fast so if your probes or feints are working, keep doing it. When you see the slow, lumbering machine finally start to pivot then you change quicker than they can adapt Yeah I don’t think Russia has an OODA loop! They have the DAAAA stick: Decide Act Act Act Act. It requires a fifth step for the Russians. DARRR Decide Act React React React 😂😂 If only I could figure out a construct for the acronym DERP to describe their lack of accurate assessment of reality… We could do DARP Decide Act React Propaganda |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:25:25 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By XeroSygnal: This was suggested in one of the OSINT type videos a few weeks back... Perun or LazerPig or one of them I think it was. Basically, whomever picks the targets is doing so off of maps that are decades old. Kind of like how in the early part of the war, Russians used maps of the Chernobyl area that were "pre-1986" and then proceeded to dig trenches in highly radioactive soil. They have to be aware of newer maps. It almost had to be more of a problem with decades old plans. "We will attack x and y and then z because that's what we would do in 1993" |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:26:22 PM EDT
[#45]
Just for reference.
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:28:32 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:31:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#47]
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FL, USA
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:43:09 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m24shooter: I think that was raised in the last few years but they have been doing it for at least 25-30 years. That’s awesome. I love a good Haka…. |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:54:30 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DPeacher: You're wrong. They're against Ukraine simply because the Biden admin is providing limited support to Ukraine. If the Trump administration was still in power and providing 10 times the current levels of support, they would support it 100% and clamor for more. Certainly some of them. But Trumpsters pushing hyper sensitive political correct speech? Then again 2023 is the world upside-down... |
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Posted: 5/29/2023 5:58:13 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: Russia has a long history of trying to overwhelm the enemy with vast amounts of cannon fodder. It worked out badly in WW-1 and then, they drew all the wrong conclusions when sorta worked in a WW-II, with America and Britain supplying the logistics. We Also had seriously degraded German logistics. Essentially, Russia is paying the price now, for believing all their own bullshit propaganda about the great patriotic war. Yes. And the time of manpower intensive conflicts came and went a few decades ago. I'd rather have some 110lb weakling pushing a button for 1000 cruise missiles than 1000 of the best Spteznaz shovel throwers. |
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