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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:34:54 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: China has openly stated they will not directly transfer military materiel if we do not provide long range strike capability to Ukraine. If there are any valid reservations about countering Russian LR fires, it's all going out the window once Chinese drones and missiles start flying. They have received long range capability from france and the uk. China isn't sending anything worth a fuck, they don't want anything analyzed by the west that might be a dud. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:35:09 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Deep strike missiles are cool until a single one goes over the border, then this problem gets exponentially worse. Yeah, they might start target apartment buildings.....  |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:35:14 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: I know we've beaten A10s for Ukraine to death, but can the cannon on them deal with Shaheds in rear areas? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Shaheds are $50,000 and have a 2,000km range from mobile launchers. So they realistically can't be taken out pre-launch. The cost effective intercept is auto cannon like the Gephard or patrolling aircraft like attack helos or fighters. Manpads ($120K) would be the next best. A2A missile get into the $400K+ range. Even more cost effective would be to prevent Iranian shipments on the Caspian Sea or via air freight. Undoubtedly, but that is kinda overkill. I suggested earlier a reusable drone armed with a pistol caliber MG intended to patrol an area then close with targets (other drones) it detects and shoot them down, the answers I got make me think that a suicide drone with a prox-fuzed warhead may be better, just has to get close then .*boom*. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:36:12 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Israel to the white courtesy phone, please. I wonder how many times since Iran set on the course to develop nuclear weapons the US administrations have sabotaged Israel's attempts to deal with them. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:36:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Oryx says there have been nine NASAMs systems delivered. Nine. Its a 20km system that takes two years to produce. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Oryx says there have been nine NASAMs systems delivered. Nine. Its a 20km system that takes two years to produce. Originally Posted By daemon734: Sounds great, we should have this all wrapped up once NASAMs start getting pumped out in any relevant quantity around 2025-2028. So your estimate of two years minimum becomes three months and that's nothing? Just in case you're wondering why people think you're a troll, someone who was discussing this instead of arguing it would admit it's a tiny step in the right direction, even if it's just replacement of destroyed systems. Pretty much all transferred to Ukraine? Wait, who was giving NASAMS again? It's all so confusing.  https://www.apollo.lv/7807216/nato-samita-laika-spanija-parvietos-nasams-no-latvijas-uz-lietuvu |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:36:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: PortaJohnPicasso]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: F16's in the rear area would help but fall is an extremely ambitious timeline. Only because people who think like you, but in positions of power, spent months talking and whining instead of doing. They could've had F16's already in operation |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:37:08 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Deep strike missiles are cool until a single one goes over the border, then this problem gets exponentially worse. BTW, what other solutions have you provided, besides...well...providing missiles...? I'm genuinely curious. Shit has already been blown up over the border. Russia claims a lot of Ukraine as officially russia. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:37:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#8]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:38:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Ryan_Ruck]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Isn't Russia going to pursue that regardless? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Originally Posted By daemon734: You seem to think deep strike capability into Russia is the answer, which will most likely illicit the open transfer of drones and ballistic missiles from China, and even more from Iran. Isn't Russia going to pursue that regardless? I would say that support from China is looking less and less likely after Prigozhen's coup attempt and Putin's hold on power appearing increasingly tenuous.
Despite claims from some uninformed pundits that we've driven China and Russia closer together recently, from everything out there in the public, their relationship appears to be on the ice to one of the largest degrees I've seen perhaps since they started warming up significantly since 2001. That alone is a big win for the US in supporting Ukraine. China might still offer some degree of help with things like ammo but with the way things have been trending, it does seem increasingly unlikely they're going to be willing to help with anything significant. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:39:51 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Or China/Iran might drop a couple thousand DF series/Qiam ballistic missiles into the mix and seal the deal on this whole party. Or they might not. Fuck China |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:41:38 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Deep strike missiles are cool until a single one goes over the border, then this problem gets exponentially worse. BTW, what other solutions have you provided, besides...well...providing missiles...? I'm genuinely curious. They already go "over the border". Remember, Russia claims to have annexed the territory Ukraine is recapturing? So from Russia's perspective Ukraine is already striking Russian territory with missiles and nothing has gotten exponentially worse. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:41:58 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: China has openly stated they will not directly transfer military materiel if we do not provide long range strike capability to Ukraine. If there are any valid reservations about countering Russian LR fires, it's all going out the window once Chinese drones and missiles start flying. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: China has openly stated they will not directly transfer military materiel if we do not provide long range strike capability to Ukraine. If there are any valid reservations about countering Russian LR fires, it's all going out the window once Chinese drones and missiles start flying. The most recent comment I have seen on the topic of arms supplies from China's foreign ministey is from April 14, 2023 (Archive) “Regarding the export of military items, China adopts a prudent and responsible attitude,” Qin said at a news conference alongside visiting German counterpart Annalena Baerbock. “China will not provide weapons to relevant parties of the conflict, and manage and control the exports of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations.” What have they said since April to indicate they are concerned with maintaining Russian advantage in long range PGMs? |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:42:07 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#13]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:43:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#14]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:44:02 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tiberius: Undoubtedly, but that is kinda overkill. I suggested earlier a reusable drone armed with a pistol caliber MG intended to patrol an area then close with targets (other drones) it detects and shoot them down, the answers I got make me think that a suicide drone with a prox-fuzed warhead may be better, just has to get close then .*boom*. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:45:11 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Was anything I posted wrong? You forgot to address the facts I presented. I would like to see you back up your claim that Gepard isn't being used to shoot down Shahed's, contrary to the many public reports that it's been doing that well. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:45:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#17]
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:46:20 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: You do realize that there were systems in production already, some delivered, and some transferred, right? There were a handful already built at the start and a handful in production. 3 months is the orders they had already been waiting for. The systems we gave Ukraine were ones we sent to the middle east that we recalled, and now have to replace. Nobody said it wasn't a step in the right direction, but it is not enough fast enough to have any tangible impact. I'm lokling at the big picture and long timeline, you are seemingly content with guessing everything is going to be ok based on data you failed to research. You could literally do a simple search and find out all this information before making absurd posts like this. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/raytheon-air-defense-ukraine-middle-east-00071687 You need to read the posts you respond to. The Lithuanian MoD and President have both said planned delivery for those two systems is within three months. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:47:13 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Russia's interpretation doesn't matter, China's does. China isn't looking for a war with the US. China will take whatever interpretation allows them to sit it out. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:47:44 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Or China/Iran might drop a couple thousand DF series/Qiam ballistic missiles into the mix and seal the deal on this whole party. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By Logcutter: Yeah, they might start target apartment buildings..... Or China/Iran might drop a couple thousand DF series/Qiam ballistic missiles into the mix and seal the deal on this whole party. Opinion is not fact. I'm not wrong |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:49:05 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Russia's interpretation doesn't matter, China's does. So, you can show us where China has said that they're all in with Russia, and will provide them ballistic missiles if Ukraine shoots long range missiles into Russia, right? |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:49:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#22]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:50:55 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Was anything I posted wrong? You forgot to address the facts I presented. Your opinion is fact? How many patriot missiles do they have? How many are in future aid packages? How many have other countries sent? What is the rate of usage, and how fast will this deplete the stock? You are the smartest one in the thread, I would imagine you would have no problem coming up with these numbers. Please give the numbers, everyone here understands that there is a finite number of patriot missiles, understand the choices they need to make and the difficulties involved. You bring nothing here that hasn't already been discussed more than once. Seriously, you think your arrival with this information is a revelation? Get real. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:51:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#24]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:51:42 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Oh neat, I believe I brought this up several times. It is unsustainable and another option must be found. That option is not going to be munitions several years in the future. You seem to think deep strike capability into Russia is the answer, which will most likely illicit the open transfer of drones and ballistic missiles from China, and even more from Iran. The Patriots and all TBM's are going to run out, you just seem to think it won't be as fast as it will be. I missed that piece of information. What is the source and why would China do it? I get China is asshole, but I would think that may create other financial issues for China, and the west. Or is the axis of evil going to ramp up formally? |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:52:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#26]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:53:07 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Logcutter: So, you can show us where China has said that they're all in with Russia, and will provide them ballistic missiles if Ukraine shoots long range missiles into Russia, right? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Logcutter: Originally Posted By daemon734: Russia's interpretation doesn't matter, China's does. So, you can show us where China has said that they're all in with Russia, and will provide them ballistic missiles if Ukraine shoots long range missiles into Russia, right? He said so. That makes it fact... He's not wrong. Because he said that too. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:53:09 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Or China/Iran might drop a couple thousand DF series/Qiam ballistic missiles into the mix and seal the deal on this whole party. Monkeys might fly out of your ass. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:53:41 PM EDT
[#29]
50 Cal Combat GoPro | Counter-Offensive | Part 3 - Medical Evac
 Combat GoPro | MRAP Gunner Evacuates Wounded International |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:54:19 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Monkeys might fly out of your ass. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By daemon734: Or China/Iran might drop a couple thousand DF series/Qiam ballistic missiles into the mix and seal the deal on this whole party. Monkeys might fly out of your ass.  |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:54:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: PortaJohnPicasso]
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: First of all, the "all in" portion you added here is amusing. However, this happened. I'm sure it was fairly benign. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-china-hold-talks-anti-missile-defence-russian-foreign-ministry-2023-06-27/ Anti-missile defense isn't offensive ballistic missiles. Can you show where China has stated they will provide ballistic missiles to Russia if Ukraine shoots missiles into Russia? |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:54:32 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: So what? Exactly what does that have to do with the systems taking two years to produce? You made the claim that this system showing up somehow proves they don't take that long, omitting the option that it could have been already produced or in the process. It's also still an extremely small number. You need a lot more 20KM systems to have any impact in a county the size of Ukraine, which is the point. A lot more aren't coming for a long time. Ukraine doesn't need to cover the entire country with sophisticated AD. It only need to cover strategic locations, and that's what it's doing. You call the use of the Patriot in Kyiv protecting "low value" targets but you are certainly wrong about that - Kyiv airport is strategically important, as is protecting the critical command and control elements in Kyiv, including Zelensky. We DON'T see Ukraine deploying that kind of AD all over the county, not even in other major cities, so protection of civilian targets ISN'T what they're doing. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:55:04 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#33]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:55:17 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: So what? Exactly what does that have to do with the systems taking two years to produce? You made the claim that this system showing up somehow proves they don't take that long, omitting the option that it could have been already produced or in the process. It's also still an extremely small number. You need a lot more 20KM systems to have any impact in a county the size of Ukraine, which is the point. A lot more aren't coming for a long time. I'm not saying they don't take a long time to produce, that's dumb. I'm saying that, like when Germany buys Arrow-3 and sends Patriots to Ukraine, things happen that you're not going to see coming. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:55:26 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Russia's interpretation doesn't matter, China's does. China ain't sending shit. Get over it. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:57:04 PM EDT
[#36]
GROW UP
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:57:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#37]
Disengaging
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:57:46 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: First of all, the "all in" portion you added here is amusing. However, this happened. I'm sure it was fairly benign. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-china-hold-talks-anti-missile-defence-russian-foreign-ministry-2023-06-27/ Wow, they held talks. Later, they stated they ain't sending shit. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:58:03 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Like I said, the USG believes it. It's almost as if there are things happening you don't know about. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-china-hold-talks-anti-missile-defence-russian-foreign-ministry-2023-06-27/ Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By Auto5guy: He said so. That makes it fact... He's not wrong. Because he said that too. Like I said, the USG believes it. It's almost as if there are things happening you don't know about. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-china-hold-talks-anti-missile-defence-russian-foreign-ministry-2023-06-27/ China has not condemned the invasion, and Washington and other Western allies said earlier this year that China was considering providing weapons to Russia, something Beijing denies. Your speculation based on a speculative Reuters article is not fact. I'm not wrong. Deal with it. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:58:26 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: The post you quoted was about NASAMs, not Patriot, and I provided you the unclassified data answering your questions. You ignored it. It did not have all those numbers. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:59:38 PM EDT
[#41]
I love how his post had "China denies" right in the part quoted.
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Posted: 7/3/2023 4:59:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#42]
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:01:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#43]
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:03:20 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Lol, that's your proof they won't do it?  Um, you're the one that said they would, and that's what YOU posted, apparently as your proof that they would..... |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:03:28 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Like I said, the USG believes it. It's almost as if there are things happening you don't know about. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-china-hold-talks-anti-missile-defence-russian-foreign-ministry-2023-06-27/ So the morons in dc are claiming something different than China has stated publicly all along? Lol. OKey dokey. Are these the same morons who decided to use warfare against sandal wearing 60 iq insurgents as a basis for weapons stockpiles? |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:04:13 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: The USG seems to believe it is a concern, otherwise we would probably not be having this discussion. I have no doubt our government solemnly weighs and measures many potential and hypothetical scenarios regarding the developments within Ukraine as well as the predicted consequences thereof. Iran is already party to the war and grossly involved. Iran supplying TBMs would be of no great surprise. China, on the other hand, is distinctly not so. It deciding to become so would be a bold departure from their posturing held the prior 17 months. Your claim they would is striking. It begs for concretion. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:05:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#47]
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:09:30 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: I know we've beaten A10s for Ukraine to death, but can the cannon on them deal with Shaheds in rear areas? They fly 115 mph. Cessna 172 flys 185 mph. Guy with a Thompson could take one down. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:09:36 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Do you research anything you post? https://breakingdefense.com/2023/06/germany-starts-funding-israeli-arrow-3-missile-defense-system-procurement/ That is literally the problem I told you about. I guess we will revisit this at the end of 2025 then. No it's not, Mr. bait-and-switch. I'm talking about NASAMS, not Patriot. To say it for the last time, Lithuania (LT) says they have purchased two (2) (ea) NASAMS systems and expect delivery within three (3) months. That's 01OCT23. |
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Posted: 7/3/2023 5:09:38 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: My position is that it is credible enough that the USG believes it, because they stated as such, meaning restrictions on munitions. I never made a position on if I agree with the restrictions, however if China sends drones and missiles it's pretty much game over. What intelligence have you seen that makes a news article credible? USG believed trump was colluding with russia. USG said the hunter laptop was fake. Game over for who, by the way? |
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