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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 5328 of 5592)
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Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:26:23 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By _disconnector_:
I think the issue would be acceleration and angular momentum.  I'm not saying it can't be done but . . .

The average 155mm shell pulls ~6,500Gs upon firing.  That means that a 1 ounce sensor would weight 406pounds for an instant during firing.  Since artillery is rifled, the shell would also be spinning at about 12,000 RPM as well.  That's a shitload of angular momentum to overcome at deployment and more G forces for anything not precisely in the center of the shell.

It might be doable, but a 155mm artillery piece might not be the best delivery vehicle.  If it can be done it would be a fantastic idea though!

View Quote


Perhaps something more like a punkin' chunkin' air cannon? soft impulse and sustained acceleration down a long barrel.

Would have some other advantages. no need for rifling or perfect rigidity, as the projectile will guide itself after launch. Much lower PSI means thinner walls, and can be something that is transported in sections and is much lighter. Would be a lot cheaper to manufacture as well and opens the door to things like folding or telescoping barrels.

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:28:50 PM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By jungatheart:

Thanks again for all the work you put in to give
us these videos.
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Originally Posted By jungatheart:
Originally Posted By Capta:
Still pic.  At least five dead Russians, half buried in the remains of their foxholes.  Kind of a haunting, WWI-like photo.

Juiced Kamikaze blows a Russian literally 10 meters out of his foxhole and does horrific damage.  EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY NSFW.  Fair warning.  Notable for his blase attitude prior to the hit.

Wounded Russian commits suicide with grenade.  EXTREMELY GRAPHIC AND NSFW.  Fair warning, this one is pretty bad.

Russian sitting in foxhole with multiple other dead Russians feet away when drone grenade lands in his lap and goes off.  EXTREMELY NSFW.

Russian wounded by drone drop commits suicide with rifle.  NSFW.

Kamikaze scores direct hit on Russian trying to hide next to a tree.  NSFW.

Kamikaze with some extra juice near-misses two Russians shooting at it.

Nighttime - Russian assault unit gets a dose of VERY accurate DPICM, plus possibly some AGS fire, plus thermal drone drops.  Quite a few fucked up Russians visible.

Extended video of kamikaze brewing up Russian tank with crew inside.  Crew bailout is edited out of this one, but two of them obviously made it out on fire.  Another disabled tank hit, brewing it up too, and 3 IFVs at least damaged.  Reported as same area.

Fairly long compilation of thermal grenade drops, probably all in the same area.

Large number of destroyed, abandoned, and some still-burning Russian vehicles on one field in the Lyman area.  Looks like several different attacks went to shit in the same area, cleanup of latest attack still ongoing.  Pretty awesome footage.

Small Russian attack ends badly with APC and tank running over mines, another APC and tank retreating.  Missed ATGM seen at beginning.  Pretty interesting footage because this is one of the VERY, VERY few videos you can actually see a Russian tank deploy smoke grenades, and it is a close-range screen too.  May be a T-90.

Interesting diary narration of experiences by a volunteer in Ukraine.  Notes that you will only hear a Kamikaze if it is diving on you personally, and you have 1 second to get to cover, if there is any.

Two dead Russians - still pic from drone

Series of thermal drone drops, several heavy hits. Includes one instance of two drones fucking up the same group of Russians at the same time.  Might be around Krynky.

Thanks again for all the work you put in to give
us these videos.

You’re welcome.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:29:02 PM EDT
[#3]
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:33:48 PM EDT
[Last Edit: LurkerII] [#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE_DMBwW8AAU5yv?format=jpg&name=large




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE-OJLiW0AAX8Bk?format=jpg&name=900x900


















https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE-XQagWkAAhYgF?format=jpg&name=900x900






https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE-N1L5WkAATphS?format=jpg&name=900x900

















[tweet]httphttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE_FOc_WAAAkcaw?format=jpg&name=900x900s://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1751836026169897334[/tweet]






https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1751846285940805632/EJF7IDCO?format=jpg&name=900x900
View Quote

Now if we can root out the Russian agents in the US Government. Chinese ones too.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:33:54 PM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By treelow:


LOL…wtf?

The one guy is running around like crazy, the drone is flying around, and that dude is just chilling? Maybe he thought if he just stayed put the drone wouldn’t see him and continue after the running around guy? Or running around guy would run away and the drone would chase him?
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Originally Posted By treelow:
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Originally Posted By brahm:
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


it looks like at 54sec. there is a guy sitting in the passenger seat.




https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/201300/GE2tsYiWYAsssssssssssssssAUFyX_jpg-3111543.JPG


LOL…wtf?

The one guy is running around like crazy, the drone is flying around, and that dude is just chilling? Maybe he thought if he just stayed put the drone wouldn’t see him and continue after the running around guy? Or running around guy would run away and the drone would chase him?


Rigor mortis? Frozen stiff?

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:34:03 PM EDT
[#6]




Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:35:15 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
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Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:35:29 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Alex9661:


Nobody knows how many votes'll be for Putin, 99% or only 98%.
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Definitely 101%
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:38:40 PM EDT
[#9]


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:43:12 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By LurkerII:

Now if we can root out the Russian agents in the US Government. Chinese ones too.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By LurkerII:
Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE_DMBwW8AAU5yv?format=jpg&name=large




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE-OJLiW0AAX8Bk?format=jpg&name=900x900









Of course..












https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE-XQagWkAAhYgF?format=jpg&name=900x900






https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE-N1L5WkAATphS?format=jpg&name=900x900

















[tweet]httphttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GE_FOc_WAAAkcaw?format=jpg&name=900x900s://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1751836026169897334[/tweet]






https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1751846285940805632/EJF7IDCO?format=jpg&name=900x900

Now if we can root out the Russian agents in the US Government. Chinese ones too.

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 1:58:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#11]







Quick rumor crushing.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:03:24 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By governmentman:


Perhaps something more like a punkin' chunkin' air cannon? soft impulse and sustained acceleration down a long barrel.

Would have some other advantages. no need for rifling or perfect rigidity, as the projectile will guide itself after launch. Much lower PSI means thinner walls, and can be something that is transported in sections and is much lighter. Would be a lot cheaper to manufacture as well and opens the door to things like folding or telescoping barrels.

View Quote
Here is a patent similar to what is being discussed https://patents.google.com/patent/US20150128823A1/en
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:08:31 PM EDT
[#13]
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:

While Russian weapons are getting shunned due to their abysmally bad performance on the battlefield even by long-term customers such as India (I reported about this yesterday), Western arms companies are getting overrun by the demand. I can also confirm this based on my personal contacts I have from the industry.

One example for this development is this news. Slovenia has opted to improve its air defense by buying one of the most successful middle-ranged air defense systems in recent history, the IRIS-T SLM.

The procurement is part of a larger effort which is organized under the umbrella of the "European Sky Shield Initiative" (ESSI), and of which 17 NATO countries as well as Austria and Switzerland are part of. Slovenia becomes the 4th country (after Germany, Estonia and Latvia) which will contribute to this project using the air defense system IRIS-T SLM from Diehl Defense



With Fico being the popular leader of Slovakia, and being a commie favorable to Russia, who exactly does he fear will he need to defend against?!  NATO?


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:13:39 PM EDT
[#14]
The greek vehicle I got was in such poor shape.

Brakes? Rusted and corroded.

Engine? Leaking fuel into the oil

Carb problems

Springs flat.

Shocks? No stiffness or bounce.

Inside? rusted.

Tires? uneven wear lines.

It sat in a field for about 10-15 years before it came to the USA and had all kinds of tree nuts and bugs in it
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:16:40 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RockNwood:


With Fico being the popular leader of Slovakia, and being a commie favorable to Russia, who exactly does he fear will he need to defend against?!  NATO?


View Quote


Different countries:

Attachment Attached File


This may help too:

https://www.sheppardsoftware.com/Geography.htm

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:22:38 PM EDT
[#16]


Notes regarding the Ukrainian drone.


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:28:36 PM EDT
[#17]
30 minutes ago, Russian occupied territories.

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:28:58 PM EDT
[#18]
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Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Originally Posted By RockNwood:


With Fico being the popular leader of Slovakia, and being a commie favorable to Russia, who exactly does he fear will he need to defend against?!  NATO?





Different countries:

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/201300/dw46346646463_png-3111610.JPG

This may help too:

https://www.sheppardsoftware.com/Geography.htm



my bad!

Thanks


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:30:52 PM EDT
[#19]
Hungary Restores Relations with Ukraine: Foreign Minister in Uzhhorod. Wrap-up


It's most likely due to the F-35 carrot being dangled at Hungary.
Plus alot of other incentives such as making Hungary a repair facility for UA NATO donated vehicles.

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:31:41 PM EDT
[#20]
⚡️Zelensky did not dismiss the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny - Presidential Speaker Sergei Nikiforov in a commentary to the UP

https://t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko/86962

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:32:10 PM EDT
[#21]
Ukraine is definitely errecting some pretty sophisticated trenches and layers of them behind Avdiivka, which is good because that city is in a salient that will sometime this year get cut off.  

Hopefully, Ukraine can withdraw from Avdiivka in good order and then hold in their new defensive line until things can get sorted during 2024.   That appears to be Ukraine's plan.  

It's amazing to see how little coordination that Russian ground forces have with their airforce.  The Russian airforce really does seem to be just dependent on orders from HQ and I haven't seen them do much of any close air support or anything that would indicate they are coordinating with any controllers embedded with the infantry.

I'm a bit surprised to see the lack of EW for the Russians in Avdiivka.  The recent reports I've see show Ukrainian FPV drones still scoring a lot of hits around Avdiivka, but that's not the case in some areas of the front where Russian EW (at least from new reports) does seem to be effective.  Could it be that the Russians can't coordinate their EW elements to accommodate their offensive actions (i.e. so they can still communicate with each other and use drones) and so the way that the Russians are treating EW is an all or nothing thing primarily used for areas where they're strictly on the defensive?  

I still believe that at the end of 2024 the possibility for a cease fire and armistice is a possibility with either a Finland 1939 Winter War ending or perhaps even North & South Korea ending where they up with a DMZ and a conflcit that could spark off at any moment for genertions on end.



Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:40:04 PM EDT
[#22]
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:44:01 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER:

I would not be surprised at all if in the near future, rockets and artillery are used to fire drones to extend their range. Maybe in the similar way the DPICM extends the range of "grenades" and mines are also dispersed via arty. Maybe AI will be necessary since the 20+ mile range of a 155 is beyond the typical range of a FPV drone operator. I guess in concept you'd fire the rocket or arty shell and somewhere near the target one or several drones get dispersed and start looking for targets or maybe even land (like mines) and wake up when they detect targets. Imagine a DPICM 155 shell that ejects out dozens of tiny drones, about the size of a hummingbird, that target individual infantry. Call it the "Yellow Jacket" round after the awful insect (I've had bad experiences with them chasing and stinging me...)
View Quote

Damn, infantry life is going to be
measured in hours soon.
Love the idea and even the name.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 2:50:37 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident:
Ukraine is definitely errecting some pretty sophisticated trenches and layers of them behind Avdiivka, which is good because that city is in a salient that will sometime this year get cut off.  

Hopefully, Ukraine can withdraw from Avdiivka in good order and then hold in their new defensive line until things can get sorted during 2024.   That appears to be Ukraine's plan.  

It's amazing to see how little coordination that Russian ground forces have with their airforce.  The Russian airforce really does seem to be just dependent on orders from HQ and I haven't seen them do much of any close air support or anything that would indicate they are coordinating with any controllers embedded with the infantry.

I'm a bit surprised to see the lack of EW for the Russians in Avdiivka.  The recent reports I've see show Ukrainian FPV drones still scoring a lot of hits around Avdiivka, but that's not the case in some areas of the front where Russian EW (at least from new reports) does seem to be effective.  Could it be that the Russians can't coordinate their EW elements to accommodate their offensive actions (i.e. so they can still communicate with each other and use drones) and so the way that the Russians are treating EW is an all or nothing thing primarily used for areas where they're strictly on the defensive?  

I still believe that at the end of 2024 the possibility for a cease fire and armistice is a possibility with either a Finland 1939 Winter War ending or perhaps even North & South Korea ending where they up with a DMZ and a conflcit that could spark off at any moment for genertions on end.
View Quote

Even Russians say ‘if there’s a freeze of any kind, it will only be used for the other side to regroup”.

No one involved thinks an agreement will ever be reached.


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 3:02:36 PM EDT
[#25]
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 3:04:53 PM EDT
[#26]






Link Posted: 1/29/2024 3:13:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 4xGM300m] [#27]


A T-72B3 Mad Max.
The piece of the BMP's armor over the ERA on UFP.
View Quote


Orc tank.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 3:17:34 PM EDT
[#28]


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 3:33:16 PM EDT
[#29]


Uparmored Orc T-80
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 3:51:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu] [#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident:
Ukraine is definitely errecting some pretty sophisticated trenches and layers of them behind Avdiivka, which is good because that city is in a salient that will sometime this year get cut off.  

Hopefully, Ukraine can withdraw from Avdiivka in good order and then hold in their new defensive line until things can get sorted during 2024.   That appears to be Ukraine's plan.  

It's amazing to see how little coordination that Russian ground forces have with their airforce.  The Russian airforce really does seem to be just dependent on orders from HQ and I haven't seen them do much of any close air support or anything that would indicate they are coordinating with any controllers embedded with the infantry.

I'm a bit surprised to see the lack of EW for the Russians in Avdiivka.  The recent reports I've see show Ukrainian FPV drones still scoring a lot of hits around Avdiivka, but that's not the case in some areas of the front where Russian EW (at least from new reports) does seem to be effective.  Could it be that the Russians can't coordinate their EW elements to accommodate their offensive actions (i.e. so they can still communicate with each other and use drones) and so the way that the Russians are treating EW is an all or nothing thing primarily used for areas where they're strictly on the defensive?  

I still believe that at the end of 2024 the possibility for a cease fire and armistice is a possibility with either a Finland 1939 Winter War ending or perhaps even North & South Korea ending where they up with a DMZ and a conflict that could spark off at any moment for genertions on end.
View Quote

I keep asking this, and nobody has a credible answer. How can Putin be induced to negotiate? Why, looking at the situation we see now, would Russia consent to any kind of settlement other than Ukraine's surrender? Why would Russia accept any kind of negotiations?

From what I see, calling for negotiations is just as much blindly optimistic copium as the belief that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia in the field and force them out of their country entirely (barring significant additional participation and arms deliveries by an external partner). Ukraine isn't gaining anywhere and hasn't been in weeks, Russia's military industry is spinning up, western donors are reducing their deliveries either through political problems like the US or deficient inventory. Everything Russia wants can still be achieved through military action in the field, and they've made it clear that no price is too high.

Again, short of Ukraine's surrender, I don't see how negotiation is even possible unless something big changes.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 4:01:02 PM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:


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Cat says "Shouldn't I have some of that? Looks like cat food to me! Open can, feed cat. That's how it works, hooman!"
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 4:09:47 PM EDT
[#32]
Live soon

SHOCKING: ZALUZHNY DISMISSED!? Check the Facts - UM Livestream

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 4:21:13 PM EDT
[#33]
10 minutes ago.

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 4:35:45 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:


View Quote
That's freaking hilarious!
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 4:38:28 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I keep asking this, and nobody has a credible answer. How can Putin be induced to negotiate? Why, looking at the situation we see now, would Russia consent to any kind of settlement other than Ukraine's surrender? Why would Russia accept any kind of negotiations?

From what I see, calling for negotiations is just as much blindly optimistic copium as the belief that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia in the field and force them out of their country entirely (barring significant additional participation and arms deliveries by an external partner). Ukraine isn't gaining anywhere and hasn't been in weeks, Russia's military industry is spinning up, western donors are reducing their deliveries either through political problems like the US or deficient inventory. Everything Russia wants can still be achieved through military action in the field, and they've made it clear that no price is too high.

Again, short of Ukraine's surrender, I don't see how negotiation is even possible unless something big changes.
View Quote

What will happen is the Russians will eventually use up all their Soviet stockpiles and then further offensive action will be impossible for them.  At that point the war will just become a pointless stalemate for both sides.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:03:23 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I keep asking this, and nobody has a credible answer. How can Putin be induced to negotiate? Why, looking at the situation we see now, would Russia consent to any kind of settlement other than Ukraine's surrender? Why would Russia accept any kind of negotiations?

From what I see, calling for negotiations is just as much blindly optimistic copium as the belief that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia in the field and force them out of their country entirely (barring significant additional participation and arms deliveries by an external partner). Ukraine isn't gaining anywhere and hasn't been in weeks, Russia's military industry is spinning up, western donors are reducing their deliveries either through political problems like the US or deficient inventory. Everything Russia wants can still be achieved through military action in the field, and they've made it clear that no price is too high.

Again, short of Ukraine's surrender, I don't see how negotiation is even possible unless something big changes.
View Quote
I think a lot of people who are "calling for peace" are fine with Ukraines unconditional surrender, they just won't say it.

Like you said, I've asked that same question too and have gotten no answer. "What is Putins incentive to negotiate peace now?" Crickets. Those who just "call for peace" without any elaboration aren't serious on the topic, they are just doing drive by's that sound good in their brain and/or told to repeat by ________ talking head or politician.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:05:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: METT-T] [#37]
I'm hoping if Biden finds his sack he hits Iran's Shahed plant and/or some of the parts suppliers. Multi-theater effects. Of course the Russian plant is up and running but I bet they rely on stuff from Iran.

Wishful thinking, I know.

500 acres originally built by Textron for the Shah. Call it kinetic repossession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Aircraft_Manufacturing_Industries_Corporation
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:09:25 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By METT-T:
I'm hoping if Biden finds his sack he hits Iran's Shahed plant and/or some of the parts suppliers. Multi-theater effects. Of course the Russian plant is up and running but I bet they rely on stuff from Iran.

Wishful thinking, I know.

500 acres originally built by Textron for the Shah. Call it kinetic repossession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Aircraft_Manufacturing_Industries_Corporation
View Quote
If he doesn't want to do it for whatever dumb reasons he should at least tell Bibi to do it.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:16:54 PM EDT
[#39]

Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:19:46 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Kingsmen:

What will happen is the Russians will eventually use up all their Soviet stockpiles and then further offensive action will be impossible for them.  At that point the war will just become a pointless stalemate for both sides.
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The problem accelerates when you factor in that the equipment that was rushed to the front in late 2022/2023 was some of the best equipment condition wise that could easily be restored to working order fast.

The further the war goes on the longer the dip into less suitable equipment goes.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:26:01 PM EDT
[#41]




Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:26:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest] [#42]



Link Posted: 1/29/2024 5:57:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: KaerMorhenResident] [#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I keep asking this, and nobody has a credible answer. How can Putin be induced to negotiate? Why, looking at the situation we see now, would Russia consent to any kind of settlement other than Ukraine's surrender? Why would Russia accept any kind of negotiations?

From what I see, calling for negotiations is just as much blindly optimistic copium as the belief that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia in the field and force them out of their country entirely (barring significant additional participation and arms deliveries by an external partner). Ukraine isn't gaining anywhere and hasn't been in weeks, Russia's military industry is spinning up, western donors are reducing their deliveries either through political problems like the US or deficient inventory. Everything Russia wants can still be achieved through military action in the field, and they've made it clear that no price is too high.

Again, short of Ukraine's surrender, I don't see how negotiation is even possible unless something big changes.
View Quote


Drop NG and Oil prices through increase U.S. and Saudi production.  To do that, we'd need Trump in office though, because the idiot Biden has already demonstrated that he is dumb enough to cut U.S. NG export as if he wants to intentionally enrich Russia.  Economic sanctions don't even hold a candle to putting the squeeze on Russia through lowering the price of a barrel of oil.  If you look at Russian Defense Spending over the years it dropped like a rock under Trump, because they weren't making anywhere near as much from their oil and NG exports.  

We also hold about $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, now that's an incentive to get in a room and talk.  

The rest is the art of negotiation and I know damn well we've got people in this country that can put a deal together that will end this carnage without Ukraine having to completley surrender.  

This is and was always going to be a Winter War of 1939 ending we just need both sides to accept that fact.   So, we will need a full year of a stalemate in 2024.  U.S. support should continue, but it has to be done much more intelligently and Ukraine needs to move to a more conservative defensive strategy.  Now, it's my understanding that NATO has been advising them to go into a defensive posture for 2024 and I hope they're listening.  From what I'm seeing they do appear to be listening and I think 2024 could go pretty well for them and pretty bad for the Russian as they slam their collective heads into a brick wall of Ukrainian fortifications and smart counter attacks.


Link Posted: 1/29/2024 6:03:43 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
I think a lot of people who are "calling for peace" are fine with Ukraines unconditional surrender, they just won't say it.

Like you said, I've asked that same question too and have gotten no answer. "What is Putins incentive to negotiate peace now?" Crickets. Those who just "call for peace" without any elaboration aren't serious on the topic, they are just doing drive by's that sound good in their brain and/or told to repeat by ________ talking head or politician.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99:
Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:

I keep asking this, and nobody has a credible answer. How can Putin be induced to negotiate? Why, looking at the situation we see now, would Russia consent to any kind of settlement other than Ukraine's surrender? Why would Russia accept any kind of negotiations?

From what I see, calling for negotiations is just as much blindly optimistic copium as the belief that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia in the field and force them out of their country entirely (barring significant additional participation and arms deliveries by an external partner). Ukraine isn't gaining anywhere and hasn't been in weeks, Russia's military industry is spinning up, western donors are reducing their deliveries either through political problems like the US or deficient inventory. Everything Russia wants can still be achieved through military action in the field, and they've made it clear that no price is too high.

Again, short of Ukraine's surrender, I don't see how negotiation is even possible unless something big changes.
I think a lot of people who are "calling for peace" are fine with Ukraines unconditional surrender, they just won't say it.

Like you said, I've asked that same question too and have gotten no answer. "What is Putins incentive to negotiate peace now?" Crickets. Those who just "call for peace" without any elaboration aren't serious on the topic, they are just doing drive by's that sound good in their brain and/or told to repeat by ________ talking head or politician.

This. Many of the people calling for negotiations aren't doing so in good faith. Elsewhere (since I don't argue with the intellectual giants of GD anymore), I've asked people what a proposed peace deal would actually look like. Rhetoric is nice, but it often times falls apart in practice. The west won't offer Ukraine serious security guarantees any time soon, and Putin most likely won't back down from effectively destroying the Ukrainian state, such that round three in a few years will be easier. So, what is the realistic path to peace that doesn't significantly weaken Ukraine and leave it ripe for dismemberment a little ways down the road? People haven't been able to articulate a credible one. The people advocating this path are either naive or they aren't operating in good faith.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 6:10:37 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By METT-T:
I'm hoping if Biden finds his sack he hits Iran's Shahed plant and/or some of the parts suppliers. Multi-theater effects. Of course the Russian plant is up and running but I bet they rely on stuff from Iran.

Wishful thinking, I know.

500 acres originally built by Textron for the Shah. Call it kinetic repossession.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Aircraft_Manufacturing_Industries_Corporation
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It would be a good move, but, as you said, wishful thinking. I doubt that the Biden Administration actually wants to do anything serious against Iran during an election year. There have actually been rumblings that the Biden Administration is considering pulling out of Syria and thus abandoning the Al-Tanf base, which is a very valuable tool for putting pressure on Iran and its supply lines to Assad, Hezbollah, etc.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 6:19:55 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By fadedsun:
The greek vehicle I got was in such poor shape.

Brakes? Rusted and corroded.

Engine? Leaking fuel into the oil

Carb problems

Springs flat.

Shocks? No stiffness or bounce.

Inside? rusted.

Tires? uneven wear lines.

It sat in a field for about 10-15 years before it came to the USA and had all kinds of tree nuts and bugs in it
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Around 2000, some LST vets brought home a WWII LST they acquired from the Greek Navy.  It turned into quite the epic voyage....
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 6:33:31 PM EDT
[#47]
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Slovenia is the one "Balkan" country that is more-or-less wired tight.  As a matter of fact, Melania Trump is from Slovenia.  I have personal acquaintances within and experience with the Slovenian military, and all of it was positive.
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 6:35:47 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By KaerMorhenResident:
Drop NG and Oil prices through increase U.S. and Saudi production.  To do that, we'd need Trump in office though, because the idiot Biden has already demonstrated that he is dumb enough to cut U.S. NG export as if he wants to intentionally enrich Russia.  Economic sanctions don't even hold a candle to putting the squeeze on Russia through lowering the price of a barrel of oil.  If you look at Russian Defense Spending over the years it dropped like a rock under Trump, because they weren't making anywhere near as much from their oil and NG exports.  

We also hold about $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, now that's an incentive to get in a room and talk.  

The rest is the art of negotiation and I know damn well we've got people in this country that can put a deal together that will end this carnage without Ukraine having to completley surrender.  

This is and was always going to be a Winter War of 1939 ending we just need both sides to accept that fact.   So, we will need a full year of a stalemate in 2024.  U.S. support should continue, but it has to be done much more intelligently and Ukraine needs to move to a more conservative defensive strategy.  Now, it's my understanding that NATO has been advising them to go into a defensive posture for 2024 and I hope they're listening.  From what I'm seeing they do appear to be listening and I think 2024 could go pretty well for them and pretty bad for the Russian as they slam their collective heads into a brick wall of Ukrainian fortifications and smart counter attacks.
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First, the Saudis are not allies anymore. They will no longer support our wishes on oil production. They pursue their own agenda exclusively anymore. And honestly IMO, this is not the favor I'd choose to seek.

US production could be increased, and it would take a Republican to do it. But the reason this is not the time to try to make nice with the House of Saud is that this lever is nowhere near enough to persuade Russia to call off the dogs. Kremlin leadership has clearly established their willingness to endure extreme pain in pursuit of this goal, including economic sacrifice.

The $300B is not all sitting in the US. It's mostly in European banks. I am firmly against seizing foreign assets anyway. Freezing them pending the current crisis is fine, but violating the sovereign rights of property goes against everything the US stood for. Until such time as the State of Russia is convicted in an international forum for war crimes with all due process, this cannot be allowed. I know in this thread I am a minority in this view, but I am convinced it is the correct one. And again, Russia is willing to pay dearly to conquer their neighbor, so this is not a lever to force negotiations anyway.

So really your suggestion is just aspirational. Just like we hope something bad happens that will make Russia collapse, you hope they would be willing to negotiate, with not an ounce of credible reason to support it.

And the bloodshed and destruction will continue, because nobody has any incentive to stop it. Ukraine is fighting for their existence, to avoid literal genocide. Russia is fighting to restore their old empire, insisting that Ukraine is sovereign Russian property, and also winning the war at the moment, (if slowly).
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 7:12:13 PM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By fadedsun:


The problem accelerates when you factor in that the equipment that was rushed to the front in late 2022/2023 was some of the best equipment condition wise that could easily be restored to working order fast.

The further the war goes on the longer the dip into less suitable equipment goes.
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I think it would also take countries like Iran and NK who are selling them shit to stop feeling comfortable and have to worry about using their own shit. Right now they have relative comfort in not getting in direct conflict
Link Posted: 1/29/2024 7:16:37 PM EDT
[#50]
Ukraine the latest with some EU politics regarding Hungary.
Ukraine strikes another oil refinery & MEP 'exposed' as Russian spy | Ukraine: The Latest | Podcast
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OFFICIAL Russo-Ukrainian War (Page 5328 of 5592)
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