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Posted: 1/29/2024 8:40:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#1]
ISW assessment for January 29th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-29-2024 Russia may be retooling aspects of its air defense umbrella in deep rear areas amid continued Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia. Russian outlet Kommersant reported on January 29 that the Russian Ministry of Digital Development ordered Russian authorities in Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts to block 4G LTE internet connection until January 30 so that Russian officials can “fine-tune” anti-drone and air defense systems.  Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts previously announced disruptions to 4G LTE internet services from January 25 to January 30 in connection with technical adjustments to the “radio frequency spectrum.”[9] One of Kommersant’s sources stated that Voronezh Oblast is conducting similar efforts that have been “planned at the federal level” and that many other unspecified Russian federal subjects are pursuing these efforts at different paces.[10]Kommersant stated that Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems and mobile internet providers both operate on frequencies permitted by the Russian State Commission on Radio Frequencies (SCRF), and Kommersant’s source stated that indiscriminate EW use can interfere with mobile data.[11] It is unclear what impact internet operations may have on the reorientation of EW systems or the deployment of new capabilities and vice versa. It is equally possible that Russian forces may be testing new EW capabilities and preemptively turned off internet services to avoid sudden disruptions. Russian officials may also be limiting access to the internet to conceal the movement of conventional air defense systems within Russia after Ukrainian drone strikes in Leningrad Oblast on January 18 and January 21 suggested that Russian air defenses in northwestern Russia may be ill-deployed to defend against drones launched from Ukraine.[12] Yaroslavl Oblast Governor Mikhail Yevraev claimed on January 29 that Russian EW systems downed a Ukrainian drone targeting the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast.[13] Russian sources amplified images of the downed drown at the refinery and claimed that it did not cause any damage.[14] Kommersant’s source stated that they believe that the timing of the internet disruptions is also associated with security for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing trip to St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast.[15] |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 9:14:49 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nraheston: Russians Run Back to Their Lines After APCs Blow Up: Insane Video from a group of Elite Ukrainian Drone Pilots: Intense Dual-Cam Footage of Drone Strikes on Russian Lines: Dramatic Russian Assault into No-Mans's-Land Near Avdiivka: |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 9:30:23 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFBtzlCWUAAKKh8?format=jpg&name=medium Why did they fire him? |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 9:31:02 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Quick rumor crushing.  Well now I'm confused 🤔 |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 9:46:16 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Well now I'm confused 🤔 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Quick rumor crushing. Well now I'm confused 🤔 So far as we know, it's not true and was a rumor today. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 9:49:47 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Well now I'm confused 🤔 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Quick rumor crushing. Well now I'm confused 🤔 I don’t know but Russia has spread the same rumors about Zaluzny a couple times before in 2023. They are trying very hard to drive wedges between Ukraine’s leaders and sow doubt among Western supporters. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 9:58:34 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Well now I'm confused 🤔 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Quick rumor crushing. Well now I'm confused 🤔 There were rumors from within the Ukrainian government (including within the General Staff of Ukraine) a few months ago that Zaluzhny was going to be removed. It obviously hasn't happened yet, but I think it's safe to say that it's something that's being/been toyed around with. The Ukrainian NSDC clearly has issues with how Zaluzhny has conducted the war, but he's also very popular with the Ukrainian people and with much of the AFU, so firing him comes with a political cost. I also don't know if there are any great replacements. Budanov seems to be good in his specific role, but I don't think he's commanded anything more than a platoon or a company. Naev and Syrskyi are both known in the AFU to be Soviet style commanders, with the latter's role in the defense of Kyiv and the Kharkiv offensive reportedly being very overstated. I there should be a lot of changes within the AFU, and I haven't been extremely impressed with Zaluzhny, but I don't know if this is the right move. |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:20:24 PM EDT
[#8]
Next time UA has a dud sitting in a refinery, and Russia sends in experts, UA needs to drop another drone right on top of the first one.
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:25:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#9]
About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator.
includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:26:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: fadedsun]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 56xdx_Z: I don't know, maybe this video is a few days old, or maybe they got pushed back due to the number of counterattacks? I don't envy the job of those mappers trying to piece together all the fights over various streets/buildings into chronological order A counter attack did drive a Russian foothold on the outskirts back. This was where the sewer tunnels were used to penetrate the lines. So I guess they'll have to find another way. Maybe launch some more meat assaults, IDK? |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:42:28 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:52:33 PM EDT
[#12]
“If Ukraine ends, it will happen in 3 to 5 years” Estonia's growing sense of crisis https://asahi.com/articles/ASS1T3VTGS14UHBI02M.html?ref=tw_asahi
Three types of flags are flown on the Estonian Ministry of Defense building. The Estonian flag, the Ukrainian flag, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) flag. This reflects the current state of Estonia's national defense. 
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:53:25 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:55:11 PM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 1/29/2024 10:58:46 PM EDT
[#15]
 . Video…
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:03:16 PM EDT
[#16]
The Hill article |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:07:38 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: As I recall, there have been a few experiments along those lines that DoD has done. It's a tough problem to create avionics capable of flying a drone while surviving the boom phase. A rocket booster could be tailored to ramp up the speed slow enough to get the drone to a decent spot without destroying the electronics. Not sure how that would compare to a mothership/daughtership approach. The latter would probably be cheaper and easier to implement. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By mercersfinest4: Originally Posted By maddmatt: Originally Posted By yekimak: Originally Posted By maddmatt: I have an artillery question and maybe this is the best place for it. Has there ever been any sort of artillery fired camera developed? Something like a flare, that could be fired and transmit back to the fire team? Sorta a spotting shot deal? Essentially an arty-fired drone? I can't say I've heard of the exact concept, or it being put to use. I'm sure that there is someone better than me who could answer regarding it's wxistance, but damn if the idea has merit, if only at first. Given the complexity of some of the other munitions currently in use it would seem to be possible. Whether or not it would have significant advantage of having regular drones doing the observation would be my biggest question. I was just thinking that using the artillery powder as in essence a solid state booster would allow you to not waste battery power in the traverse stage and instead save it for loiter time @planemaker As I recall, there have been a few experiments along those lines that DoD has done. It's a tough problem to create avionics capable of flying a drone while surviving the boom phase. A rocket booster could be tailored to ramp up the speed slow enough to get the drone to a decent spot without destroying the electronics. Not sure how that would compare to a mothership/daughtership approach. The latter would probably be cheaper and easier to implement. Thanks! |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:10:00 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:10:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#19]
Has someone done this video yet of back blast to the face?
 Boris, don’t fire yet, let me mo… Never mind, I’m dead. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:13:48 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. Well he has continued the Danger State for Covid for a few more years so he can rule by decree and Parliament is powerless. There is no democracy today in Hungary. It is a sham dictatorship that should have its EU vote voided. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:21:07 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Well he has continued the Danger State for Covid for a few more years so he can rule by decree and Parliament is powerless. There is no democracy today in Hungary. It is a sham dictatorship that should have its EU vote voided. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. Well he has continued the Danger State for Covid for a few more years so he can rule by decree and Parliament is powerless. There is no democracy today in Hungary. It is a sham dictatorship that should have its EU vote voided. "Illiberal democracy" is likely the best term for Orban's Hungary. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:29:25 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: I think a lot of people who are "calling for peace" are fine with Ukraines unconditional surrender, they just won't say it. Like you said, I've asked that same question too and have gotten no answer. "What is Putins incentive to negotiate peace now?" Crickets. Those who just "call for peace" without any elaboration aren't serious on the topic, they are just doing drive by's that sound good in their brain and/or told to repeat by ________ talking head or politician. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:33:02 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: "Illiberal democracy" is likely the best term for Orban's Hungary. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. Well he has continued the Danger State for Covid for a few more years so he can rule by decree and Parliament is powerless. There is no democracy today in Hungary. It is a sham dictatorship that should have its EU vote voided. "Illiberal democracy" is likely the best term for Orban's Hungary. How is there democracy if he rules by sole decree? Voting for MPs mean nothing if Parliament is circumvented. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:35:21 PM EDT
[#24]
I believe one of our contributors posted a link to this drone filmed destruction of a RU armor column, recently.
The WSJ used it as a case-in-point to highlight UKR’s effectiveness at leveraging new technology to defend its lines. This Ambush Shows How Ukraine Is Holding the Line |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:44:20 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: That and their RSOP capabilities suck, their logistic system is not up to the task, their training sucks, and they seem to have huge gaps in capability at the Operational level that preclude effective and successful large-scale operations utilizing any means other than surprise and overwhelming mass. If we are going off overall casualties, Russia's manpower and equipment losses are unsustainable in the long-term, even with Iranian, North Korean, and (covert) Chinese support. Of course, this COULD change on the equipment side if the Chinese jumped in with both feet, but the Russians are having problems sustaining the numbers they have now, the LPR/DNR well is about dry, and, if we assume more than a 1:3 casualty rate in favor of the Ukrainians, due to the demographic factors the Russians are losing the manpower war at the strategic level as well. Plus, the Russian non-military economy is well and truly wrecked for at least a decade if not an entire generation due both to the war and the existing corruption. IF Trump gets elected, Russia will get bent over the table within 6 months regardless of Trump's Ukraine policy because a lot of Biden's screwy energy policies will be reversed and the price of oil and gas will go down significantly, not to mention the fact that Iranian support will, at a minimum, be sharply curtailed since Trump will go after the Houthis' and Iranians like no president since Ronald Reagan. I could also conceive Trump sending the Ukes all of the FASCAM that is sitting in depots due to dud-rate concerns as well as most of, if not all, of the -113s and other older equipment in storage, such as older Patriots that are not going to be upgraded, older ATACMs, maybe a few of the Boneyard f-16s etc, in order to force the Russians to the negotiating table for his desired negotiated solution and give him leverage in the negotiations. Time will tell. I agree and believe that a Trump part II would be a net benefit for Ukraine and negative for the Iran/Russia/Nork Axis. Ukraine would just have to play nice and survive the Trump attempts to negotiate a peace deal, let Russia be the dickheads and earn Trumps ire. ANY Republican will be 100X better than the timid and corrupt imbeciles we have now. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:46:04 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: How is there democracy if he rules by sole decree? Voting for MPs mean nothing if Parliament is circumvented. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. Well he has continued the Danger State for Covid for a few more years so he can rule by decree and Parliament is powerless. There is no democracy today in Hungary. It is a sham dictatorship that should have its EU vote voided. "Illiberal democracy" is likely the best term for Orban's Hungary. How is there democracy if he rules by sole decree? Voting for MPs mean nothing if Parliament is circumvented. Illiberal democracy implies that there exists a façade of democracy, but that authoritarian, undemocratic leaders hide behind said façade. Democratic institutions might still exist in theory, but their power has been significantly neutered. The legislature's influence may be reduced, elections may be rigged, media may be partially or largely controlled, term limits may be bypassed, etc. It's not a perfect definition, but I think it has a good degree of legitimacy when it comes to Orban's Hungary. |
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Posted: 1/29/2024 11:58:52 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: I do agree about the elites, but in the US many folks say that our downfall will be upper-middle/lower-upper class white suburban women. My wife actually brought that up (and she is one!) and I have to agree. She said that they have an emptiness to their lives that requires a cause and they are really good at banding together to get what they want. Look at the heart of any DEI initiative and you'll find them. Evidence? Every school board election in Northern VA for the last 10 years. True and I think part of it is the "soft-times leads soft people, which leads to hard times..." cycle that we are in. And affluent suburban women are on the forefront being the most pampered, insulated yet demanding among us. Karen will be the end of us all... |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 12:20:15 AM EDT
[#28]
Therefore, I do not want to comment on the conflict episodes that are now being thrown into the network (and of which there are actually so many that you have no idea about it).
The quality of contract signatories is falling rapidly (either quantity or quality - it doesn’t work any other way), moral fatigue is taking place among people, conditions are very different from what we would like. At the same time, in positions the severity of friendly clashes cannot be compared with those “terrible cases” that are dumped online. And, if anything, I just don’t feel any sympathy for tik-tokers, especially for those of them who were on the opposite side physically during the Second Chechen War, but now remain there morally. I’m just against it when discussing pictures distracts from the topic of real problems https://t.me/shouvalov/182 Air defense installations, promptly deployed to the Leningrad region after an attack on the port infrastructure, are an ideal illustration for the medical section “Cretinism”. Now I’ll explain the simplest things, and if you find at least one refuting argument, almost for the first time I’ll be curious myself. The S-300 anti-drone system is either napalm against a cockroach, or a log for a horny girl instead of a vibrator. I’m more interested in something else: where did they get the air defense there from? Well, as if I were talking about physics with its laws of conservation of energy and about the laws of communicating vessels: if somewhere it has arrived, then somewhere it’s completely the opposite. And now I can very well guess where the opposite could have happened. Why be ashamed: I know exactly where it happened. How will the enemy react to such air defense movements to the Leningrad region and to other objects that are vital to those important in life? Option one, ideal: the enemy will become demoralized, decide that his actions are futile, move NATO away from our borders and pay reparations. Option two, realistic: the enemy will understand that he is dealing with cretins who are being manipulated by him, and therefore, with tripled energy, he will begin to attack important infrastructure with drones. In response, we will fire at the drones from air defense, where one missile is tens to hundreds of times more expensive than drones - good for the enemy. If something flies and something valuable and useful explodes somewhere, the enemy is happy. If, in addition, air defense is removed from the front line, where we seem to be severely lacking it, the enemy will also dance a waltz. I understand that it’s insulting to the naysayers: starting the Northern Military District, we honestly and sincerely offered to fight only where we ourselves delineated this zone. Don't step outside the circle. But since the real bastards turned out to be against us, they not only step outside the circle to spite us, but generally do not want to play by our rules. We call them names for this (Dimon, fas!), and threaten them with soap for intimate hygiene, and honestly complain that we are being fooled, deceived and led by the nose, and these bastards do not want to continue playing by our rules. As Nikolai Gavrilovich said - “What to do?” In general, the political troubles of the Northern Military District look something like this: when we pretend to be deranged idiots, they believe us, but they don’t agree to our terms. After this, we don’t need mobilization, and partial mobilization is, as it were, not mobilization. They showed the Armata to the whole world, they gave a hint, but fuck off fighting on something more mundane. And I, of course, accepted all these decisions - with all my heart, with all my soul, but I’m just already fucked up. Every mistake above is blood below. The higher the error, the more blood there is down. This channel can also go silent at any moment - despite everything, it stayed alive for almost two years, but how and how long it will work out is an open question. Mistakes give rise to heroism, and heroism is paid for in blood and coffins, and is awarded with orders and medals. Somewhere above, someone made a mess - now new medals have been brought up, almost all of them on beautiful cushions, right on top of the coffins. Cuteness. War is a science like any other, it’s just that there are more applied aspects and the exams with tests are specific. But the S-300 in the Leningrad region as a sudden response to drones is not science, but some kind of magic. But the decision was clearly not made by the military; they are not very good at magic. And only Russian soldiers feel good: if they have a machine gun, go on the attack, if they give them little soldiers, run and fight. Thank you, wise sages https://t.me/shouvalov/183 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 12:35:28 AM EDT
[#29]
Igor Girkin
Dear friends and comrades! Today, the defense received in the Moscow City Court a copy of Judge Vyrysheva’s 21-page verdict, and lawyer Molokhov filed a short appeal of 19 pages; an addition to it will be prepared after a thorough study of the protocol of the court hearing, which has not yet been prepared. The first impression of the verdict is disgusting; the testimony of witnesses, specialists and experts in it is distorted beyond recognition; the defense's arguments were completely ignored; in fact, the judge pretended that they did not exist at all! Nevertheless, our fight continues! It is now obvious that after studying the approximately two hundred page protocol of the court session, witnesses, specialists and lawyers will file comments on it, and if necessary, we will ask a higher authority to re-examine them. At Strelkov’s request, we continue to collect funds to pay for the services of lawyer Alexander Vladimirovich Molokhov, now in the appellate court. We are sincerely grateful to all participants of the Movement and supporters of Igor Ivanovich Strelkov for their responsiveness and support!!! Every ruble you have is accounted for and will go into business. As of January 29, 2024, 23,265 rubles have been collected for defense in the appeal. https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/563  Супруга Стрелкова и его адвокат о приговоре. 25.01.2024 https://t.me/soldat_prav/2863 Mrs. Girkin Everyone who has personally communicated with Igor knows that above all else he places dedication, courage, and loyalty - qualities that are so necessary in war. But, as it turned out, these qualities are also needed far from the front line. It takes a lot of determination to not be afraid to stand up for justice! It seems very correct and natural to me that it is precisely such fearless and honest people who are now coming out in support of Igor Ivanovich. I admire the guys who unfurled the posters “Freedom for Strelkov!” at the Moscow City Court on the day of sentencing. The police took one person into the paddy wagon - another took his place. In St. Petersburg, young people were also not afraid to hold pickets in the very center of the city, and they were also taken to the police station. These guys are the best of our youth. Thank them from the bottom of my heart! https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/867 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 12:36:05 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Therefore, I do not want to comment on the conflict episodes that are now being thrown into the network (and of which there are actually so many that you have no idea about it). The quality of contract signatories is falling rapidly (either quantity or quality - it doesn’t work any other way), moral fatigue is taking place among people, conditions are very different from what we would like. At the same time, in positions the severity of friendly clashes cannot be compared with those “terrible cases” that are dumped online. And, if anything, I just don’t feel any sympathy for tik-tokers, especially for those of them who were on the opposite side physically during the Second Chechen War, but now remain there morally. I’m just against it when discussing pictures distracts from the topic of real problems https://t.me/shouvalov/182 Air defense installations, promptly deployed to the Leningrad region after an attack on the port infrastructure, are an ideal illustration for the medical section “Cretinism”. Now I’ll explain the simplest things, and if you find at least one refuting argument, almost for the first time I’ll be curious myself. The S-300 anti-drone system is either napalm against a cockroach, or a log for a horny girl instead of a vibrator. I’m more interested in something else: where did they get the air defense there from? Well, as if I were talking about physics with its laws of conservation of energy and about the laws of communicating vessels: if somewhere it has arrived, then somewhere it’s completely the opposite. And now I can very well guess where the opposite could have happened. Why be ashamed: I know exactly where it happened. How will the enemy react to such air defense movements to the Leningrad region and to other objects that are vital to those important in life? Option one, ideal: the enemy will become demoralized, decide that his actions are futile, move NATO away from our borders and pay reparations. Option two, realistic: the enemy will understand that he is dealing with cretins who are being manipulated by him, and therefore, with tripled energy, he will begin to attack important infrastructure with drones. In response, we will fire at the drones from air defense, where one missile is tens to hundreds of times more expensive than drones - good for the enemy. If something flies and something valuable and useful explodes somewhere, the enemy is happy. If, in addition, air defense is removed from the front line, where we seem to be severely lacking it, the enemy will also dance a waltz. I understand that it’s insulting to the naysayers: starting the Northern Military District, we honestly and sincerely offered to fight only where we ourselves delineated this zone. Don't step outside the circle. But since the real bastards turned out to be against us, they not only step outside the circle to spite us, but generally do not want to play by our rules. We call them names for this (Dimon, fas!), and threaten them with soap for intimate hygiene, and honestly complain that we are being fooled, deceived and led by the nose, and these bastards do not want to continue playing by our rules. As Nikolai Gavrilovich said - “What to do?” In general, the political troubles of the Northern Military District look something like this: when we pretend to be deranged idiots, they believe us, but they don’t agree to our terms. After this, we don’t need mobilization, and partial mobilization is, as it were, not mobilization. They showed the Armata to the whole world, they gave a hint, but fuck off fighting on something more mundane. And I, of course, accepted all these decisions - with all my heart, with all my soul, but I’m just already fucked up. Every mistake above is blood below. The higher the error, the more blood there is down. This channel can also go silent at any moment - despite everything, it stayed alive for almost two years, but how and how long it will work out is an open question. Mistakes give rise to heroism, and heroism is paid for in blood and coffins, and is awarded with orders and medals. Somewhere above, someone made a mess - now new medals have been brought up, almost all of them on beautiful cushions, right on top of the coffins. Cuteness. War is a science like any other, it’s just that there are more applied aspects and the exams with tests are specific. But the S-300 in the Leningrad region as a sudden response to drones is not science, but some kind of magic. But the decision was clearly not made by the military; they are not very good at magic. And only Russian soldiers feel good: if they have a machine gun, go on the attack, if they give them little soldiers, run and fight. Thank you, wise sages https://t.me/shouvalov/183 @prime Do you have the link or know of Shouvalov's discussion on the losses vs land gained telegram? I recall you sharing it a while ago but I can't find it. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 12:40:49 AM EDT
[#31]
Belarus
New fake? “Equipment is again arriving at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border” Information is again appearing in the Ukrainian media that military equipment is being brought to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Belarusski Gayun does not confirm this information. Moreover, the results of daily monitoring indicate the absence of any unusual activity on the territory of Belarus in recent weeks. Chronicle of military activity for January 15-21 Chronicle of military activity for January 22-28 Online map of military activity on the territory of Belarus @Hajun_BY https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7661 Review of military events in Belarus for January 22-28 On January 23, decisions were approved for the protection of the state border by the border service authorities, as well as in the airspace in 2024. These documents are approved annually. A number of combat training activities were reported. Among them are the inspection of the mechanized battalions of the 11th and 19th mechanized brigades, as well as the conduct of joint staff training under the leadership of the Chief of the General Staff. The training of internal troops by PMC Wagner mercenaries continues. It was reported that new Russian-made snowmobiles, as well as simulators for training unmanned aerial vehicle operators, were transferred to the troops. The delivery of new fighters to the troops was also announced. Read more in our material @Hajun_BY https://t.me/Hajun_BY/7662 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 12:45:19 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Igor Girkin Dear friends and comrades! Today, the defense received in the Moscow City Court a copy of Judge Vyrysheva’s 21-page verdict, and lawyer Molokhov filed a short appeal of 19 pages; an addition to it will be prepared after a thorough study of the protocol of the court hearing, which has not yet been prepared. The first impression of the verdict is disgusting; the testimony of witnesses, specialists and experts in it is distorted beyond recognition; the defense's arguments were completely ignored; in fact, the judge pretended that they did not exist at all! Nevertheless, our fight continues! It is now obvious that after studying the approximately two hundred page protocol of the court session, witnesses, specialists and lawyers will file comments on it, and if necessary, we will ask a higher authority to re-examine them. At Strelkov’s request, we continue to collect funds to pay for the services of lawyer Alexander Vladimirovich Molokhov, now in the appellate court. We are sincerely grateful to all participants of the Movement and supporters of Igor Ivanovich Strelkov for their responsiveness and support!!! Every ruble you have is accounted for and will go into business. As of January 29, 2024, 23,265 rubles have been collected for defense in the appeal. https://t.me/RDS_Official_channel/563  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dywfoRgJEPghttps://t.me/soldat_prav/2863 Mrs. Girkin Everyone who has personally communicated with Igor knows that above all else he places dedication, courage, and loyalty - qualities that are so necessary in war. But, as it turned out, these qualities are also needed far from the front line. It takes a lot of determination to not be afraid to stand up for justice! It seems very correct and natural to me that it is precisely such fearless and honest people who are now coming out in support of Igor Ivanovich. I admire the guys who unfurled the posters “Freedom for Strelkov!” at the Moscow City Court on the day of sentencing. The police took one person into the paddy wagon - another took his place. In St. Petersburg, young people were also not afraid to hold pickets in the very center of the city, and they were also taken to the police station. These guys are the best of our youth. Thank them from the bottom of my heart! https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/867 LOL. This is the country you were a patriot for lol. Enjoy the rewards! |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 12:55:15 AM EDT
[#33]
 Підрозділ TERRA: Хроніки боїв за Бахмут. Частина 2. Контрнаступ на Курдюмівку. Part 1 from 10 days ago.  Підрозділ TERRA: Рік боїв за Бахмут. Ч.1. Ворожа авіація б''є по місту. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:06:09 AM EDT
[#34]
More Girkin/“Strelkov”
❗️ANNOUNCEMENT❗️Igor Strelkov was sentenced to 4 years in prison on charges of extremism. The channel “Contrary to Censorship” is preparing in the near future an exclusive online interview with Igor Ivanovich’s lawyer-Alexander Molokhov (Chairman of the ICA “Last Watch”, head of the Working Group on International Legal Issues at the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Crimea to the President of the Russian Federation in 2017-2021) In the meantime, we received Igor Strelkov’s answers to the channel’s questions. 🚩V.Ts.-How do you see the prospects for the existence of Ukrainian identity - how likely is it that in the future it will transform into Novorossiysk, Little Russian and Galician? 🚩I.S.-Ukraine in its current form cannot and will not exist no matter the outcome of the war. Little Russian and Galician identities already exist de facto. The first of them is almost identical to the Russian one, and the second is the most distant from it. In 2014, the formation of a Novorossiysk identity could begin if it gained independence. Now there are two options – complete merger with Russian or genocide and absorption into “pseudo-Ukrainian” identity. The result depends on the outcome of the war. https://t.me/voprekicenzure/72 🚩 V.Ts. - You criticized some aspects of the conduct of the SVO. Do you think that this could worsen the motivation and morale of the SVO participants? 🚩 I.S. - No, I don’t think so. What worsens the motivation of soldiers and officers fighting at the front is the fact that fair criticism is ignored. It was precisely at the elimination of negative phenomena, known to the participants of the SVO much better than to me, that my criticism was aimed, for which I was put behind bars by the enemies of the country. 🚩V.Ts.- To what extent are restrictions in the field of freedom of speech and opinion justified during the SVO? 🚩I.S. - I now have neither the right nor the authority to competently discuss this topic. https://t.me/voprekicenzure/74 🚩V.Ts.- How do you perceive the concept of “extremism”? To what extent are there objective criteria for recognizing someone as an “extremist”? 🚩I.S. - In my opinion, this concept has a purely abstract character, without clear semantic content, and is used in modern practice according to the old Russian proverb “the law is what the drawbar is, where it turned and it came out.” https://t.me/voprekicenzure/75 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:24:38 AM EDT
[#35]
Russian “Z” channel
On the Debaltsevo-Donetsk highway in the evening you can clearly see the exits of enemy hail (I saw it myself today). Even one high-altitude drone with a good camera would be enough to determine the launch site and instantly launch a counter-battery strike. But apparently even this drone is not there. ZHIVOVZ https://t.me/zhivoff/12714 Today there was a very interesting picture in the sky near Donetsk. After a series of shelling, more than a dozen bombers took to the air, and at sunset they worked (apparently with UPABs) at the front line somewhere in the Avdeevka area. Then, when all the FABs flew away and it got dark, half a bag of hail came towards us from approximately the place where they were shooting. Like “we’re still alive.” ZHIVOVZ https://t.me/zhivoff/12715 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:32:42 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Illiberal democracy implies that there exists a façade of democracy, but that authoritarian, undemocratic leaders hide behind said façade. Democratic institutions might still exist in theory, but their power has been significantly neutered. The legislature's influence may be reduced, elections may be rigged, media may be partially or largely controlled, term limits may be bypassed, etc. It's not a perfect definition, but I think it has a good degree of legitimacy when it comes to Orban's Hungary. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. We've talked about this before, but Orban wants the benefits of being in Western institutions without having to uphold his end of the bargain. At the end of the day, he has no one but himself to blame for this. I've said this a few times, but Poland, Romania, and Hungary could be a force to be reckoned with militarily in years to come. Too bad he had to fuck it all up. The V4 was a great idea and if it had followed Poland’s path it would be a great counter to the progressive western members. And probably could have made some real impacts. But Orban blew that up. I’m convinced he is on the take. Hungary has a lot of corruption itself in spite of Orban constantly accusing Ukraine. He is bought and paid for and that is why he has worked hard to remove democracy from Hungary so he is protected as dictator for life. Orban is essentially where Putin was from 2002 to 2014 or so. There is meaningful opposition, but it doesn't have much of a chance of changing things through the "democratic" system and is constantly harassed by the state. Leadership still feels the need to pay some lip service to democracy and not be too terribly transparent with regards to rigging elections. There exists free speech and you can even organize protests, but good luck convincing a large amount of people to join you when mass media is largely aligned with the state. Even that wasn't enough for Putin eventually, though, resulting in things escalating. It might not be enough for Orban after a while, either. Well he has continued the Danger State for Covid for a few more years so he can rule by decree and Parliament is powerless. There is no democracy today in Hungary. It is a sham dictatorship that should have its EU vote voided. "Illiberal democracy" is likely the best term for Orban's Hungary. How is there democracy if he rules by sole decree? Voting for MPs mean nothing if Parliament is circumvented. Illiberal democracy implies that there exists a façade of democracy, but that authoritarian, undemocratic leaders hide behind said façade. Democratic institutions might still exist in theory, but their power has been significantly neutered. The legislature's influence may be reduced, elections may be rigged, media may be partially or largely controlled, term limits may be bypassed, etc. It's not a perfect definition, but I think it has a good degree of legitimacy when it comes to Orban's Hungary. Fair enough  It still rhymes with “tin pot dictator vassal to the dark lord of the evil empire.” 😂 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:36:48 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#37]
🔄 The map has been updated! ⚔️ The enemy advanced near Priyutny. The collision line south of Avdiivka has been updated. 🗺 deepstatemap.live https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18706 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:42:26 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Therefore, I do not want to comment on the conflict episodes that are now being thrown into the network (and of which there are actually so many that you have no idea about it). The quality of contract signatories is falling rapidly (either quantity or quality - it doesn’t work any other way), moral fatigue is taking place among people, conditions are very different from what we would like. At the same time, in positions the severity of friendly clashes cannot be compared with those “terrible cases” that are dumped online. And, if anything, I just don’t feel any sympathy for tik-tokers, especially for those of them who were on the opposite side physically during the Second Chechen War, but now remain there morally. I’m just against it when discussing pictures distracts from the topic of real problems https://t.me/shouvalov/182 Air defense installations, promptly deployed to the Leningrad region after an attack on the port infrastructure, are an ideal illustration for the medical section “Cretinism”. Now I’ll explain the simplest things, and if you find at least one refuting argument, almost for the first time I’ll be curious myself. The S-300 anti-drone system is either napalm against a cockroach, or a log for a horny girl instead of a vibrator. I’m more interested in something else: where did they get the air defense there from? Well, as if I were talking about physics with its laws of conservation of energy and about the laws of communicating vessels: if somewhere it has arrived, then somewhere it’s completely the opposite. And now I can very well guess where the opposite could have happened. Why be ashamed: I know exactly where it happened. How will the enemy react to such air defense movements to the Leningrad region and to other objects that are vital to those important in life? Option one, ideal: the enemy will become demoralized, decide that his actions are futile, move NATO away from our borders and pay reparations. Option two, realistic: the enemy will understand that he is dealing with cretins who are being manipulated by him, and therefore, with tripled energy, he will begin to attack important infrastructure with drones. In response, we will fire at the drones from air defense, where one missile is tens to hundreds of times more expensive than drones - good for the enemy. If something flies and something valuable and useful explodes somewhere, the enemy is happy. If, in addition, air defense is removed from the front line, where we seem to be severely lacking it, the enemy will also dance a waltz. I understand that it’s insulting to the naysayers: starting the Northern Military District, we honestly and sincerely offered to fight only where we ourselves delineated this zone. Don't step outside the circle. But since the real bastards turned out to be against us, they not only step outside the circle to spite us, but generally do not want to play by our rules. We call them names for this (Dimon, fas!), and threaten them with soap for intimate hygiene, and honestly complain that we are being fooled, deceived and led by the nose, and these bastards do not want to continue playing by our rules. As Nikolai Gavrilovich said - “What to do?” In general, the political troubles of the Northern Military District look something like this: when we pretend to be deranged idiots, they believe us, but they don’t agree to our terms. After this, we don’t need mobilization, and partial mobilization is, as it were, not mobilization. They showed the Armata to the whole world, they gave a hint, but fuck off fighting on something more mundane. And I, of course, accepted all these decisions - with all my heart, with all my soul, but I’m just already fucked up. Every mistake above is blood below. The higher the error, the more blood there is down. This channel can also go silent at any moment - despite everything, it stayed alive for almost two years, but how and how long it will work out is an open question. Mistakes give rise to heroism, and heroism is paid for in blood and coffins, and is awarded with orders and medals. Somewhere above, someone made a mess - now new medals have been brought up, almost all of them on beautiful cushions, right on top of the coffins. Cuteness. War is a science like any other, it’s just that there are more applied aspects and the exams with tests are specific. But the S-300 in the Leningrad region as a sudden response to drones is not science, but some kind of magic. But the decision was clearly not made by the military; they are not very good at magic. And only Russian soldiers feel good: if they have a machine gun, go on the attack, if they give them little soldiers, run and fight. Thank you, wise sages https://t.me/shouvalov/183 The sarcasm of honest, aware Russians is uniquely cutting, dripping with tragedy and comedy. Shouvalov is a military blog artist. I hope Putin sees fit to throw him in prison for extremism as well. We don’t want competent loudmouths running around in theater! |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:42:33 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: There were rumors from within the Ukrainian government (including within the General Staff of Ukraine) a few months ago that Zaluzhny was going to be removed. It obviously hasn't happened yet, but I think it's safe to say that it's something that's being/been toyed around with. The Ukrainian NSDC clearly has issues with how Zaluzhny has conducted the war, but he's also very popular with the Ukrainian people and with much of the AFU, so firing him comes with a political cost. I also don't know if there are any great replacements. Budanov seems to be good in his specific role, but I don't think he's commanded anything more than a platoon or a company. Naev and Syrskyi are both known in the AFU to be Soviet style commanders, with the latter's role in the defense of Kyiv and the Kharkiv offensive reportedly being very overstated. I there should be a lot of changes within the AFU, and I haven't been extremely impressed with Zaluzhny, but I don't know if this is the right move. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Quick rumor crushing. Well now I'm confused 🤔 There were rumors from within the Ukrainian government (including within the General Staff of Ukraine) a few months ago that Zaluzhny was going to be removed. It obviously hasn't happened yet, but I think it's safe to say that it's something that's being/been toyed around with. The Ukrainian NSDC clearly has issues with how Zaluzhny has conducted the war, but he's also very popular with the Ukrainian people and with much of the AFU, so firing him comes with a political cost. I also don't know if there are any great replacements. Budanov seems to be good in his specific role, but I don't think he's commanded anything more than a platoon or a company. Naev and Syrskyi are both known in the AFU to be Soviet style commanders, with the latter's role in the defense of Kyiv and the Kharkiv offensive reportedly being very overstated. I there should be a lot of changes within the AFU, and I haven't been extremely impressed with Zaluzhny, but I don't know if this is the right move. We have little real insight into what’s going on and why from here. Some generalizations which I think have been taken as fairly reliable thus far: 1)Zaluzhny and Zelensky don’t get along. 2)Zaluzhny and Syrsky don’t get along. 3)Zaluzhny has political ambitions, unknown to what end. 4)Zaluzhny said to be well-liked and very competent. 5)Syrsky said to be not well-liked and not very competent. 6)Syrsky wants Zaluzhny’s job. 7)It is in Russia’s interests to sow discord, increase discord, and present the impression of discord within Ukraine. That should always be taken into account. Now, whether the above things are true, how much they are true, or how much they represent national propaganda (Ukrainian or Russian), or internal propaganda (i.e. Zaluzhny, Zelensky, or Syrski) is a pretty interesting set of questions. My own observations: 1)Zaluzhny hasn’t shown anything directly that I know of to indicate he’s a stellar commander. He may be well-liked, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into success. 2)Given that we don’t have much direct evidence of Zaluzhny being highly competent and Syrski being incompetent, the statements we hear along these lines could also be consistent with Zaluzhny protecting his job and/or setting himself up for a run at the Presidency. 3)The 2023 counteroffensive was not well planned and ineffective for reasons we probably won’t fully know for years, however, this outcome sits on Zaluzhny’s desk. 4)The parts of the Ukrainian war effort that are showing excellent results are: the Naval/missile campaign on the Black Sea (Ukrainian Navy, SBU, and AF), the SOF/asymmetric campaign (Budyanov and probably others), the international PR/coalition effort (Zelensky), and the SAM battalions. Of course the Ukrainian ground forces as a whole deserve credit for incredible tenacity, but if we’re looking for the top performers, I think you have to look in those areas first. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:43:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#40]
 The so-called Geronimo unit, which acts as a mock enemy in various US Army exercises, began to use cheap commercial technologies on them. Thus, the unit is equipped with One TS-M800 quadcopters with an ammunition release device and installed scanners capable of detecting cellular and Wi-Fi signals. A type of visualization of enemy units was developed - a program for analyzing communication between MAC addresses, written in Python, reportedly using ChatGPT. Based on their movements and communication patterns, Geronimo's intelligence can determine what types of enemy units were being tracked. Chief Warrant Officer Christian Lehr says the unit does not yet use FPV drones, although some soldiers have studied their use in Ukraine. Lehr adds that Geronimo uses the Raspberry Pi single-board computer HackRF and RTL-SDR spectral analysis devices, which are widely used by the Ukrainian military to identify enemy UAVs. A T R I X https://t.me/atrixproject/310 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:43:51 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. In the Ukraine the Latest episode I posted above, EU sources are walking back this interpretation as basically just backroom discussions on what the possibilities were. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:45:23 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Rigor mortis? Frozen stiff? They guy that did the face plant over the log decided screw it and sat down. The other guy kept circling, lol. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:50:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5587-3112337.png https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5586-3112338.jpg 
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:52:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: yekimak]
[#44]
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:52:49 AM EDT
[#45]
WIndshield UXO, outside view
 The only thing I can say is that the driver's trousers definitely did not remain intact. https://t.me/combatfootageua/12382 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:54:19 AM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: More Girkin/“Strelkov” ❗️ANNOUNCEMENT❗️Igor Strelkov was sentenced to 4 years in prison on charges of extremism. The channel “Contrary to Censorship” is preparing in the near future an exclusive online interview with Igor Ivanovich’s lawyer-Alexander Molokhov (Chairman of the ICA “Last Watch”, head of the Working Group on International Legal Issues at the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Crimea to the President of the Russian Federation in 2017-2021) In the meantime, we received Igor Strelkov’s answers to the channel’s questions. 🚩V.Ts.-How do you see the prospects for the existence of Ukrainian identity - how likely is it that in the future it will transform into Novorossiysk, Little Russian and Galician? 🚩I.S.-Ukraine in its current form cannot and will not exist no matter the outcome of the war. Little Russian and Galician identities already exist de facto. The first of them is almost identical to the Russian one, and the second is the most distant from it. In 2014, the formation of a Novorossiysk identity could begin if it gained independence. Now there are two options – complete merger with Russian or genocide and absorption into “pseudo-Ukrainian” identity. The result depends on the outcome of the war. https://t.me/voprekicenzure/72 🚩 V.Ts. - You criticized some aspects of the conduct of the SVO. Do you think that this could worsen the motivation and morale of the SVO participants? 🚩 I.S. - No, I don’t think so. What worsens the motivation of soldiers and officers fighting at the front is the fact that fair criticism is ignored. It was precisely at the elimination of negative phenomena, known to the participants of the SVO much better than to me, that my criticism was aimed, for which I was put behind bars by the enemies of the country. 🚩V.Ts.- To what extent are restrictions in the field of freedom of speech and opinion justified during the SVO? 🚩I.S. - I now have neither the right nor the authority to competently discuss this topic. https://t.me/voprekicenzure/74 🚩V.Ts.- How do you perceive the concept of “extremism”? To what extent are there objective criteria for recognizing someone as an “extremist”? 🚩I.S. - In my opinion, this concept has a purely abstract character, without clear semantic content, and is used in modern practice according to the old Russian proverb “the law is what the drawbar is, where it turned and it came out.” https://t.me/voprekicenzure/75 Being somewhat of an inside man it is sort of amazing that Girkin has any expectation however low for law and order, righteousness and service to country to win any merit. You are a hit man for an organized crime syndicate known as Russia that lives by the rule of kleptocracy and lies. How did you ever expect things to go well? Or even “fair?” |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 1:56:44 AM EDT
[#47]
I received information from several sources that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have multiplied the use of night FPV. We may be talking about a fresh supply of thermal imaging cameras for drones to tens of thousands. Our guys on the front line need to take this factor into account and be more careful. Old schemes for deploying personnel may no longer work.
Alexander Kharchenko https://t.me/bayraktar1070/1828 |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 2:04:13 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: In the Ukraine the Latest episode I posted above, EU sources are walking back this interpretation as basically just backroom discussions on what the possibilities were. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By RockNwood: About time EU did something about Orban’s pro-Russia obstruction. The stupid shit should have followed Poland’s lead on energy and support of Ukraine. But he went all in on puffing Putin. At a minimum he should have imitated Erdogan’s method of appeasing the West enough to get patience with their selective obstruction. But Orban is a clumsy dull Putin fluffer. I hope he gets it good and hard and Hungarians figure out a way to depose the dictator. includes cutting Hungary off from EU funding programs. If Orban continues to block aid to Ukraine, other EU countries will publicly announce that they will not provide Hungary with financial assistance. Investors will be less interested in investing in Hungary, which could lead to a depreciation of the Hungarian forint and other economic problems, such as job losses and slower economic growth. In the Ukraine the Latest episode I posted above, EU sources are walking back this interpretation as basically just backroom discussions on what the possibilities were. That’s too bad. They really need to defang the toad for usurping democratic processes for years now. Hungary would not even be allowed to apply for membership given the current lack of democratic principles and authority. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 2:10:58 AM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 1/30/2024 2:12:03 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I agree and believe that a Trump part II would be a net benefit for Ukraine and negative for the Iran/Russia/Nork Axis. Ukraine would just have to play nice and survive the Trump attempts to negotiate a peace deal, let Russia be the dickheads and earn Trumps ire. ANY Republican will be 100X better than the timid and corrupt imbeciles we have now. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: That and their RSOP capabilities suck, their logistic system is not up to the task, their training sucks, and they seem to have huge gaps in capability at the Operational level that preclude effective and successful large-scale operations utilizing any means other than surprise and overwhelming mass. If we are going off overall casualties, Russia's manpower and equipment losses are unsustainable in the long-term, even with Iranian, North Korean, and (covert) Chinese support. Of course, this COULD change on the equipment side if the Chinese jumped in with both feet, but the Russians are having problems sustaining the numbers they have now, the LPR/DNR well is about dry, and, if we assume more than a 1:3 casualty rate in favor of the Ukrainians, due to the demographic factors the Russians are losing the manpower war at the strategic level as well. Plus, the Russian non-military economy is well and truly wrecked for at least a decade if not an entire generation due both to the war and the existing corruption. IF Trump gets elected, Russia will get bent over the table within 6 months regardless of Trump's Ukraine policy because a lot of Biden's screwy energy policies will be reversed and the price of oil and gas will go down significantly, not to mention the fact that Iranian support will, at a minimum, be sharply curtailed since Trump will go after the Houthis' and Iranians like no president since Ronald Reagan. I could also conceive Trump sending the Ukes all of the FASCAM that is sitting in depots due to dud-rate concerns as well as most of, if not all, of the -113s and other older equipment in storage, such as older Patriots that are not going to be upgraded, older ATACMs, maybe a few of the Boneyard f-16s etc, in order to force the Russians to the negotiating table for his desired negotiated solution and give him leverage in the negotiations. Time will tell. I agree and believe that a Trump part II would be a net benefit for Ukraine and negative for the Iran/Russia/Nork Axis. Ukraine would just have to play nice and survive the Trump attempts to negotiate a peace deal, let Russia be the dickheads and earn Trumps ire. ANY Republican will be 100X better than the timid and corrupt imbeciles we have now. The corrupt imbeciles we have now are trying to get Ukraine 60B in supplies and Republicans affiliated with Trump are blocking it. Not sure how well those two ideas square up. |
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