He forgot his stick.

Outstanding.

Yup…..I think they have had the means to drop the bridge for some time, they are just waiting for the magic moment to do it. Once they degrade their amphib capacity enough, they’ll do it.

If you posted like this every time, you wouldn't get shit. These are perfectly reasonable criticisms, and I agree with most of them.

Avdiivka has been in a somewhat perilous position since spring 2023, in terms of the risk of being encircled. It's been obvious for a while now that it will eventually fall. It's not that strategically important, and the UAF likely doesn't have the capability to take back Donetsk City at this point, at least not without having a number of Brigades incur horrible losses, and likely destroying all offensive capacity for the foreseeable future. Donetsk City itself can still easily be targeted with GMLRS (especially now that GLSDB will be in play), long range drones like the Lancet-lite system that the Ukrainians have been working on, etc. Thus, I don't really think Avdiivka is that important in the grand scheme of things. The only reason to commit more troops there, especially good units like the Third Assault Brigade, is to ensure that the retreat happens in an acceptable fashion. Is that what's happening? I don't know. I hope so, but I kind of doubt it. Throughout this war, the UAF have consistently refused to abandon positions until they become completely and utterly untenable. It's one thing to issue 'hold at all costs' orders, but it's another thing to have troops obey them consistently throughout the course of a two year war. The fact that the UAF has consistently done so says that its troops are hard as nails. However, refusing to commit to a maneuver defense and holding at all costs has resulted in significant force degradation in the UAF due to casualties.

Yes, there absolutely does need to be a general mobilization. It'll be an unpopular political decision, but Russia has repeatedly made it clear what its plans for Ukraine are. On February 28, 2022 Russian-state owned Ria-Novosti news accidentally leaked an article about the Russian victory in Ukraine. In the article, they celebrate Ukraine's return to the Russian historical sphere of influence. Note that they refer to Ukrainians as 'Little Russians' here as a way to deny them a separate identity. Russian nationalists do not acknowledge Ukrainians as being a people, and a large reason why this war is occurring is the Russian nationalist belief that Ukrainians (Little Russians), Belarusians (White Russians), and Russians (Greater Russians) are all the same people. Reading between the lines, Russia wanted to annex large portions of Ukraine into Russia, and ensure that the rump state remainder would be governed by pro-Russian stooges and incorporated into the CSTO or possibly made part of the Union State between Russia and Belarus. This tracks with the RUSI report that went out yesterday, in which they claim that the Russian "peace deal" being floated would require Ukraine to give up all of the territories controlled by Russia right now, plus Kharkiv and potentially even Odessa, drop its desire to join NATO, and let Ukrainian leadership be chosen directly by the Kremlin.

There will be no ceasefire or negotiations that end this war and leave Ukraine intact. This only ends with the defeat of Russia, or the defeat of Ukraine, the destruction of the current Ukrainian government, and the repression of Ukrainians as a people with the stated goal of turning back into Little Russians. Tough decisions are going to have to be made. If they don't conduct a general mobilization, they're going to cease to exist.

Stick, 1 ea

Or thrown his rifle

BREAKING: Sources tell CNN that the national security threat is a "highly concerning and destabilizing Russian capability"

— Faytuks News ? (@Faytuks) February 14, 2024

A U.S. Intelligence Official has reportedly told CNN that the National Security Threat is a “Highly Concerning and Destabilizing” Capability established by the Russian Armed Forces.

OSINTdefender  (@sentdefender) February 14, 2024

Congress members and White House officials within the last hour have confirmed that there is a “serious threat” to US \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 National Security and the security of its allies

Sources tell CNN that it is a “highly concerning and destabilizing capability" developed by Russia

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) February 14, 2024

It is called showing everyone how dangerous Russia is and how Ukrainian forces should be supported to defeat that threat.

My money is on something in the cyber realm.

Good
I could see no reason on why they couldn't do this.

It is always my first guess.  2nd is Iran has nukes.

Attached File

Here's a Russian Media Monitor bit that's worth watching. Sergey Karagamov is a scholar and think tank guy in Russia, so he's clearly very literate even though he's a Nazi scum, not one of our regular guests. He talks about the western/US retreat from Ukraine and Russian ascendancy, and theorizes on the significance of Tucker Carlson's interview. It's a very clear message that the only interaction that Russia responds to is superior force. He also repeatedly calls for Russia to escalate conflict to assure western retreat and Russian victory.

https://x.com/Faytuks/status/1757824578452172814






Guessing cyber.

Three members of the House Intelligence Committee say that the National Security Threat is "disturbing", "a longer-term concern and not a today thing" and "it’s a serious issue but not an immediate crisis" https://t.co/umEBIxBVnA

— Faytuks News ? (@Faytuks) February 14, 2024

Didn't we give away hundreds of surplus MRAPs that we would never ever need again to small towns and college campuses for "security"?  

In some cases I believe that we paid them to take them.  Maybe we can pay them to get them back as well?

\uD83D\uDE80 Today the Missile Defense Agency and Space Development Agency are launching 6 satellites into orbit:

2 MDA Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor satellites and the final 4 SDA Tranche 0 Tracking Layer satellites.

Very coincidental timing, with the news that Russia… pic.twitter.com/QcHo4CCeky

— Colby Badhwar \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 (@ColbyBadhwar) February 14, 2024

Spoke with 3 HPSCI members on the intel.

One said it’s “disturbing.”

Another  said the issue is a longer-term concern, “not a today thing.”

And a 3rd confirmed “it’s a serious issue but not an immediate crisis.”

Still unclear what *it* is, though.

Alex Ward  (@alexbward) February 14, 2024

It is going to end up being 3M22 Zircon related. Likely due to the recent operational use of the missile in a land attack role in Ukraine.

Oliver Alexander  (@OAlexanderDK) February 14, 2024

If this is the case, I'm not very worried about the threat since we have been preparing for it for years.  In for the committees over reaction to it though.


Russians launched a military satellite February 9th.

Per Politico, it’s a space-based threat

— John Ridge \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@John_A_Ridge) February 14, 2024

I'm pretty sure it's something cyber related, but I suppose it might also be information that has been collected regarding Russia's long term goals for Eastern Europe, in order to put additional pressure on Congress to approve aid.

This is my bet as well.

An IT guy I know that works for the gov't told me a couple years ago that there were codes/virus's that were planted in almost every piece of equipment (e.g. routers, computers).

When I asked him how serious this was, he replied "it's about as big a deal as you can imagine".

Imagine all financial and banking records vanishing one day.

It seems more likely the Russians were blowing up a disabled drone or two.

The irony here is that the Russians have been paranoid about US-designed and made chips forever, and yet all of their civilian stuff runs on US-designed hardware and there are lots of instances of them using Western electronics in their military hardware.

Stick, anti drone, 1ea.
HOADD Hand operated anti drone device.

H/T to @Olivia_Beavers for scooping that House Intel Committee's briefing with Sullivan tomorrow is space related. Putting the pieces of the puzzle together, this Soyuz launch is the likeliest explanation. https://t.co/UUvQW2CejZ

— Colby Badhwar \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 (@ColbyBadhwar) February 14, 2024

5 days ago Russia launched a Soyuz-2-1v rocket into space, carrying a classified payload for the Ministry of Defense. Satellite Kosmos-2575 is now in orbit and under the control of the Russian Air and Space Forces.

H/T @John_A_Ridge https://t.co/4uksa5HVaZ pic.twitter.com/YJGAOtmFEc

— Colby Badhwar \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 (@ColbyBadhwar) February 14, 2024

So this is likely either 3M22 Zircon related (operational use or deployment of the nuclear-tipped variant) or related to the latest Soyuz-2-1v launch which deployed Kosmos-2575. If it was the launch, the payload must have been significantly different from the launches in 2022/23.

Oliver Alexander  (@OAlexanderDK) February 14, 2024

More: Pentagon official tells me this threat has to do with space. https://t.co/bBc7eSCME7

Jacqui Heinrich  (@JacquiHeinrich) February 14, 2024

Senate Intel Chairs Warner and ranking member Rubio were briefed weeks ago on the national security threat, sources tell MSNBC

The threat is “not unrelated” to the funding package which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, but they are not “directly tied", source say

— Faytuks News ? (@Faytuks) February 14, 2024

Changing my guess to orbiting nuke.

GLSDB parts found in past week in Crimea.

There have been additional images floating around in private Russian TG channels for the past week. These are from Crimea pic.twitter.com/0oVFSwKvC0

— John Ridge \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@John_A_Ridge) February 14, 2024

I have a feeling if that is true it will have some type of "glitch" soon.

I didn’t see any evidence of one personally.  All the videos looked like warhead explosions.

Maybe Kliper wasn't really cancelled.

The only thing this reporting is likely to produce is
anxiety. "huge threat but we can't say what it is."

There are a few toys we could employ.

I laughed. Can you imagine how badly your bell would be ringing?

Defense reporters: come for the analysis of cost vs value, but stay for the great table depicting what air and missile defense interceptors actually cost.

By ?@wesrumbaugh? ?@Missile_Defense?  https://t.co/OX3qD651JU

Tom Karako  (@tomkarako) February 14, 2024

https://www.csis.org/analysis/cost-and-value-air-and-missile-defense-intercepts

This was lengthly dicussed 3000 pages ago.

The ~60km logistics is their doctrine since WW2.  

2 hours of driving, 4 hours of loading respectively unloading, 2 hours driving - 3 tours a day.