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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:37:50 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
“Things were going badly for the super-wunderwaffwen. Then they spiraled out of control. Pure Russian doctrine! |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:39:58 PM EST
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: They can tell everyone they did. Seeing how their stuff performs, and the record of the latest icbm rocket I think they would be lucky to have something stay in orbit and remain functional. Lots of scientists were arrested recently, I wonder if that was to keep them quiet for multiple reasons. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: The Russians have trouble getting payloads into orbit at times, imagine one of these nuke anti satellite systems having a failure after launch. I don't think they could afford to risk it. They can tell everyone they did. Seeing how their stuff performs, and the record of the latest icbm rocket I think they would be lucky to have something stay in orbit and remain functional. Lots of scientists were arrested recently, I wonder if that was to keep them quiet for multiple reasons. Well, we know for sure it is NOT: - landing on the moon - hypersonic - stealth - does not use pallets What scientists are left? |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:42:49 PM EST
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#3]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:46:12 PM EST
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Well, we know for sure it is NOT: - landing on the moon - hypersonic - stealth - does not use pallets What scientists are left? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: The Russians have trouble getting payloads into orbit at times, imagine one of these nuke anti satellite systems having a failure after launch. I don't think they could afford to risk it. They can tell everyone they did. Seeing how their stuff performs, and the record of the latest icbm rocket I think they would be lucky to have something stay in orbit and remain functional. Lots of scientists were arrested recently, I wonder if that was to keep them quiet for multiple reasons. Well, we know for sure it is NOT: - landing on the moon - hypersonic - stealth - does not use pallets What scientists are left? Sex doll? |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:47:01 PM EST
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: From the very little I've read, it could wreck low earth orbit commercial satellites. That would take Starlink out completely, if I understand correctly. So while it is generally aimed at NATO, it is in particular a big hit against Musk & Ukraine's Starlink network that has been extremely valuable. We haven't talked about that much since Musk sent truckloads of receivers to Ukraine early on, but it was truly a game-changer for them. Russia still has shit-tier comms, and Ukraine is doing very well. This new thing actually fits very well with that RMM video I posted earlier today where the guy is repeating that Russia should escalate and use nuclear weapons in new ways. It fits too well, in fact. The important principle is that a nuke is a nuke. It shouldn't matter if it's used in space, in the annexed territories, or anywhere else. The western leaders must stand firm. They already see us as as weak and believe that knocking us down will help them accomplish their goals. That's dangerous. Who are the strong leaders? Where are they? And what can they do? Can anyone see Joe Biden standing up to Putin? After Russia sets of their nuke and fries a bunch of satellites, what would Joe do, besides a strongly worded letter? Would it be likely that Joe sends more and better weapons to Ukraine or more likely he screams "things have gotten out of control" and stops future arms to Ukraine to prevent ESCALATION and forces a negotiated settlement? More likely he strokes out and POTUS Kamala's next word salad starts WWIII unintentionally. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:50:29 PM EST
[Last Edit: ITCHY-FINGER]
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AgeOne: this is going to jam some Kalashnikovs.
Oh snap. Another neck breaking run for opposite corners in GD with democrats embracing Putin again in "reset 2.0" and Republicans demanding aid to Ukraine. edit: Yes there IS a thread on this already in GD. They dont know what to do! Their hero Putin has endorsed Xiden! LOL, basically pulling on Fetterman on them... |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:50:32 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Who are the strong leaders? Where are they? And what can they do? Can anyone see Joe Biden standing up to Putin? After Russia sets of their nuke and fries a bunch of satellites, what would Joe do, besides a strongly worded letter? Would it be likely that Joe sends more and better weapons to Ukraine or more likely he screams "things have gotten out of control" and stops future arms to Ukraine to prevent ESCALATION and forces a negotiated settlement? More likely he strokes out and POTUS Kamala's next word salad starts WWIII unintentionally. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: From the very little I've read, it could wreck low earth orbit commercial satellites. That would take Starlink out completely, if I understand correctly. So while it is generally aimed at NATO, it is in particular a big hit against Musk & Ukraine's Starlink network that has been extremely valuable. We haven't talked about that much since Musk sent truckloads of receivers to Ukraine early on, but it was truly a game-changer for them. Russia still has shit-tier comms, and Ukraine is doing very well. This new thing actually fits very well with that RMM video I posted earlier today where the guy is repeating that Russia should escalate and use nuclear weapons in new ways. It fits too well, in fact. The important principle is that a nuke is a nuke. It shouldn't matter if it's used in space, in the annexed territories, or anywhere else. The western leaders must stand firm. They already see us as as weak and believe that knocking us down will help them accomplish their goals. That's dangerous. Who are the strong leaders? Where are they? And what can they do? Can anyone see Joe Biden standing up to Putin? After Russia sets of their nuke and fries a bunch of satellites, what would Joe do, besides a strongly worded letter? Would it be likely that Joe sends more and better weapons to Ukraine or more likely he screams "things have gotten out of control" and stops future arms to Ukraine to prevent ESCALATION and forces a negotiated settlement? More likely he strokes out and POTUS Kamala's next word salad starts WWIII unintentionally. I choked on the last sentence. It would be very interesting to role play all the Euro leaders’ responses as well. Does anyone act in any way? |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:51:56 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Yeah, that was an eyebrow-raising moment. The lads are dying not only for the glory of Russia, but to save the whole world, so monuments will be erected to them in national capitals when this is over, and the cost is not merely bearable but a 'small sacrifice.' Per historical norms, Russian society doesn't question if a war is maybe going badly until they hit a half-million casualties. That point is coming pretty soon, for good or ill.  Tiss but a scratch... |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:52:46 PM EST
[#10]
What is meant by foreign servers and what is the problem???
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Posted: 2/14/2024 9:59:15 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: I think, more than anything, it's indicative of the fact that Russia is increasingly separating itself from the rest of the world in terms of treaties, international law, etc. It reinforces something that's been in my head for a long time. Namely, Russia is truly committing to the course that it's on, and this will only get worse. They'll continue to do things like this, they'll continue to dehumanize their geopolitical opponents in the minds of their population (e.g., rambling about the decadent west and referring to Ukrainians, Estonians, Latvians, etc. as "Nazis"), they'll continue to try to destabilize the west via hybrid war, etc. In other words, they're fixing to become a larger, more dangerous Iran/North Korea, in that their entire reason for existing is starting to boil down to opposing the west. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By RockNwood: Question: this space threat, how likely is it directed specifically ally at the war in Ukraine versus a threat to Europe or US in general? IOW, is this likely a weapon to use in the war or against the supporters of Ukraine. I’m an idiot regarding space weapons so talk slow when explaining.  No technical competence but it has to be directed at Europe and the US. I think, more than anything, it's indicative of the fact that Russia is increasingly separating itself from the rest of the world in terms of treaties, international law, etc. It reinforces something that's been in my head for a long time. Namely, Russia is truly committing to the course that it's on, and this will only get worse. They'll continue to do things like this, they'll continue to dehumanize their geopolitical opponents in the minds of their population (e.g., rambling about the decadent west and referring to Ukrainians, Estonians, Latvians, etc. as "Nazis"), they'll continue to try to destabilize the west via hybrid war, etc. In other words, they're fixing to become a larger, more dangerous Iran/North Korea, in that their entire reason for existing is starting to boil down to opposing the west. Similar to US/USSR relations in the early 1950's, or Chinese (mainland-type) from 1949 to 1970-ish. Somehow, we (especially in the West) convinced ourselves that Russia, China, Iran, Serbia, Turkey, etc, after the 1980's valued peace, prosperity, stability, etc, as much as we do. Unfortunately, the west needs to grow up and quit wishcasting their values and concepts on others. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:01:31 PM EST
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#12]
Now.
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USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:05:10 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: What is meant by foreign servers and what is the problem???
The primary machine the exchange software was running on experienced a hardware failure and the fallback was misconfigured IIUC. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:11:34 PM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGWKCHXWUAAEbRd?format=jpg&name=small Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGWKCHXWUAAEbRd?format=jpg&name=small Yep, tantrum launch inbound. Changing the course of missiles, previously of the "Calibre" type, to Kryvorizky district of Dnipropetrovsk region. X-101/555/55 missiles are headed for the Sumy/Kharkiv region through the territory of the Russian Federation. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18721 Calibers fly past Kryvyi Rih. Movement vector - Kirovohrad region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18678 Kirovohrad region rockets in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10715 🚀→Kropyvnytskyi/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78293 💥Explosions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast https://x.com/STIVMR/status/1757964901203464458 2 calibers headed for the Kirovohrad region https://t.me/eRadarrua/12512 We expect TU95 rockets from approximately 5:30. PRELIMINARY calculation of the trajectory through Sumy region. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12514 🚀 New Ukraine - be careful! https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78294 🚀→Cherkasy/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78295 ✈️🚀Activity of tactical aviation. The threat of using Kh-59 missiles https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78297 ‼️🚀X-101/555 rocket is currently not recorded. We expect rockets in the near future via Sumy/Kharkiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78298 Rockets fly over Kirovohrad region. As of now, the movement vector is the Uman district of the Cherkasy region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18681 KR: 1. The border of Cherkasy region/Kirovohrad region → Vinnytsia, Gaisinsky district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18724 ⚠ Attention! 🛬 The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the north-eastern direction! https://t.me/kpszsu/10717 Calibers enter the airspace of Cherkaschyna, the vector of movement to the northwest through Talne. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18682 ℹ️According to PRELIMINARY information, there may be several waves of TU95 rockets. If this is confirmed, we advise you not to ignore today's alarm, take tea/coffee and head to the subway/shelter/corridors. Better to play it safe. We hope that part of the launches were simulated and there will be few rockets. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12515 The activity of Russian tactical aviation in the airspace of the Kursk and Bryansk regions of the Russian Federation. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18684 🚀Rockets come through Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78300 The first group of cruise missiles in the Sumy region, in the direction of Chernihiv region. https://t.me/kpszsu/10719 🚀→Chernihiv/region via Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78301 KR: 1. Cherkasy region, Umanskyi district→Kyiv region, Bilotserkivskyi district. 2. Sumy region, Konotopsky district (new) → Chernihiv region, Nizhinsky district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18726 Calibers from Cherkasy region heading for Kyiv region/Vinnytsia region https://t.me/eRadarrua/12517 The rockets are headed for Kyiv. https://t.me/kpszsu/10720 From Cherkasy region, Calibers enter the airspace of Bilotserkiv district of Kyiv region, the vector of movement of Vinnychyna. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18688 Flight over the south-western part of Kyiv Oblast heading for Zhytomyr Oblast / Vinnytsia Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12519 Kyiv, getting ready to meet rockets from Chernihiv Oblast! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18689 🚀→Vinnytsia/region through Kyiv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78305 Rocket in Vinnytsia heading west. https://t.me/kpszsu/10721 Vector movement of X-101 missiles from Chernihiv Oblast - Brovary! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18691 💥 Chernihiv region - air defense is working https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78308 One group of bl&din turned in the direction of Brovary district. The other keeps a course to the north of Kyiv region. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12520 KR: 1. Vinnytsia, Vinnytsia district → western course, potentially Khmelnytskyi. 2. Kyiv region, Brovarsky district → city. Kyiv. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18728 🚀 A new group of rockets across the north of Chernihiv Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12521 ‼️✈️Tu-22M3 is also in the air of the Russian Federation. Threat of launch of "X-22" missiles. https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78310 ~4🚀→Kyiv. In shelter! https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78311 🚀→Zhytomyr/region from Vinnytsia https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78312 Several groups headed for Pereyaslav-Khmelnytskyi. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12524 Another group passes the Kyiv reservoir in the north of the Kyiv region. Western course. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12525 The X-101 missile in the north of Kyiv region above the Kyiv Reservoir! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18697 Caliber from Vinnytsia to Zhytomyr region and by vector to Kyiv. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12526 Six groups of rockets in the Kyiv region, do not ignore the alarm! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18699 ~10🚀→Kyiv. Stay in shelters https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78316 BIG fucking tantrum. ⚠️🚀Launches of X-59 missiles from Su-34 https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78320 Ballistics 🚀→Zaporizhia/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78321 💥 Kyiv region - air defense is working https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78322 "The air alert continues! In the region, on the approaches to Kyiv, air defense is working. Stay in shelters until the air-raid alarm goes off!" ▫️Serhiy Popko, head of KMVA https://t.me/VA_Kyiv/4666 🚀 Belarusians are taking cover, a group of rockets from the Kyiv region are coming at you😁 https://t.me/eRadarrua/12530 🚀→Dnipropetrovsk region (Sinelnikov) https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78324 A rocket in the Zhytomyr region heading for Kyiv. https://t.me/kpszsu/10723 The second group of cruise missiles in the Sumy region, in the direction of the Poltava region. https://t.me/kpszsu/10724 Rockets maneuver from Kyiv region to Cherkasy, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr. https://t.me/kpszsu/10725 🚀→Zhytomyr/region from Kyiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78326 🚀→Vinnytsia/region from Kyiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78327 🚀 Several groups of rockets are moving through the north of Zhytomyr region along the border to the west of the country. A few more groups through Kyiv Oblast in the direction of Cherkasy Oblast/Vinnytsia Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12535 Kyiv — movement of X-101/555 rockets in the direction of the city from the eastern side. A threat to the left bank. Starokostiantyniv — the movement of Kalibr rockets in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18729 Kyiv — maneuvers around/in the direction of the city X-101/555 (~4 units) "Calibers" (~2 units) turned to the Fastiv district of Kyiv region through Zhytomyr region. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18730 KR: 1. Kyiv region, Vyshgorod district → Zhytomyr region, Korosten district. 2. Kyiv region, Bilotserkivskyi district → Cherkasy region, Umanskyi district, then Vinnytsia region. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18731 KR: 1. Zhytomyr region, Korostensky district→Rivnensky region, Rivne region. 2. Vinnytsia, Haysynskyi district→west/southwest course. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18732 ❗ Aviation missile Kh-59 on the Dnipro. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18733 Ballistics 🚀→Kyiv/region from Sumy Oblast/Cherniv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78333 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78334 💥 Kyiv - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78336 Volyn region rockets in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10731 💥 Vinnytsia - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78339 💥 Zaporizhzhia - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78340 Ballistics 🚀→Kryvyi Rih https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78342 🚀→Khmelnytskyi/region through Vinnytsia https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78343 💥Dnipro - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78344 Ballistics 🚀→Kyiv/region from Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78345 A group of cruise missiles is heading to Khmelnytskyi from Vinnytsia. https://t.me/kpszsu/10732 In Khmelnytskyi region, the rocket movement vector is Starokostyantiniv! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18725 💥Dnipro - explosions again https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78350 Will 🚀→Dnipro https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78351 Rockets through the Volyn region to the Lviv region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18729 Rockets enter the Lviv region, the Sokal/Chervonograd movement vector! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18731 Single launches of ballistics in the direction of the Dnipro continue. Kyiv is clean.* Additional launches reported. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18740 KR: 1. Volyn, Lutsky district→Lviv region, Chervonogradsky district. 2. Khmelnych region, Khmelnytsky district→Ternopil region, Ternopil district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18741 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78358 From the side of Chervonograd, heading for Lviv. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12556 🚨 Lviv - 2 minutes of time. Running for cover. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12557 💥 Khmelnytskyi - air defense works https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78361 ~4🚀→Lviv. In shelter https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78362 Approximately 4 rockets on Lviv! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18737 ❗️ Lviv, now it will be loud! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18738 💥 Lviv - powerful explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78363 🚨 One group flew over Lviv, the second on the approach to the city. From Khmelnytskyi, the rocket is headed for Ternopil. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12559 Rockets from Khmelnytskyi to Ternopil. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18740 Ivano Frankivsk group of missiles in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10737 🚀→Ternopil/region from Khmelnytskyi https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78365 🚀→Ivano-Frankivsk/region from Lviv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78366 Lviv - hold on. The group from Lviv region turned to Frankivsk. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12560 Turned around. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12563 💥 Lviv - explosions again https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78368 Lviv region — remnants of rockets within Zolochiv district. The course is variable. Khmelnytskyi is a turn of the rocket from Ternopil Oblast, will fly along/in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18745 Starokostiantyniv — rocket movement in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18746 🚀→Lviv/region from Frankiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78375 In the Lviv region, the rocket is heading for Lviv again. Flying in a circle! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18747 💥 Lviv region - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78377 💥 Lviv - repeated explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78378 The rockets are located in Lviv Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, the course is constantly changing. https://t.me/kpszsu/10738 Lviv rocket within the city limits https://t.me/kpszsu/10739 Ternopil rocket in your direction from Khmelnytskyi. https://t.me/kpszsu/10740 A rocket flies in a circle in Khmelnytskyi, the vector of motion is Ternopil region. There is also a rocket in Lviv Oblast, flew over Lviv, is flying in the direction of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (Burshtyn). https://t.me/operatyvnii/18750 🚨According to preliminary information, there will be more X-101s from the Caspian. We are waiting. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12565 If confirmed, we expect the second wave approximately from 7:30.(0040ET) https://t.me/eRadarrua/12572 🚀 again→Ivano-Frankivsk/region from Lviv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78385 Ternopil — movement of rockets along/in the direction of the city. U-turn from Khmelnytskyi. In Lviv Oblast, rockets are fired in the direction of Stryi district, along Lviv. Maneuvering https://t.me/monitorwarr/18748 All the rest are headed for the Ivano-Frankivsk district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18749 ⚠️ Currently, the missile threat: ▪️ Ternopil Oblast, ▪️Lviv Oblast, ▪️ Ivano-Frankivsk region. Stay in the open x 🙏 https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78387 A rocket through Ternopil Oblast to Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Burshtyn movement vector! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18753 💥Ivano-Frankivsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78389 Berezhany/Burshtyn/Rohatyn course. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12574 🟢 07:02 Repulse of the alarm in the city of Kyiv. Stay tuned for further posts. #m. Kyiv https://t.me/air_alert_ua/75300 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Vinnytsia region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in m. Kyiv 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Chernihiv region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Sumy region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Cherkasy region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Zhytomyr region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Poltava https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78396 📢 Repelling the missile threat. https://t.me/kpszsu/10742 ~2355ET 4 TU-95ms boards approach landing on Engels https://t.me/vanek_nikolaev/21509 END PART 1 |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:12:53 PM EST
[#15]
Netherlands joins Ukraine drone coalition.
STORY: The Netherlands is joining a military coalition that aims to supply Ukraine with advanced drone tech to beef up its offensive capabilities in its war against Russia. That's according to Dutch Defence Minister Kasja Ollongren: “We need to scale up. We need to make sure that they have the number of drones that they need, but also drones with the right capabilities.” That makes it five countries that are involved in this initiative at the moment. They aren't releasing too many details about what specifically they're going to supply, but my hope is that they either supply something akin to the Lancet, or maybe military grade ISR drones to help make Ukraine's Lancet-lite system more effective. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:24:57 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: The primary machine the exchange software was running on experienced a hardware failure and the fallback was misconfigured IIUC. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: Originally Posted By RockNwood: What is meant by foreign servers and what is the problem???
The primary machine the exchange software was running on experienced a hardware failure and the fallback was misconfigured IIUC. Oh my!  |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:26:37 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: The navy seems to be having some effect, plus getting live training on hitting mobile launchers of cruise and ballistic missiles. Who knew that the enemy runs out of weapons when you are allowed to strike them?
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/munitions-stockpile-issue-persists-2-years-into-ukraine-conflict-marine-corps-general/?amp=1 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2863_jpeg-3129435.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2864_jpeg-3129437.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2865_jpeg-3129439.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2866_jpeg-3129440.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2867_jpeg-3129442.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2868_jpeg-3129452.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2869_jpeg-3129453.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_2870_jpeg-3129454.JPG It's not like they can't ELIMINATE the houthi threat. Damn. The navy seems to be having some effect, plus getting live training on hitting mobile launchers of cruise and ballistic missiles. Who knew that the enemy runs out of weapons when you are allowed to strike them?
Any practice shrinking the kill chain (time) between detection and effective ordnance on target is good live training for DOD. Especially when mixing combined arms ISR. Also helps work on target identification and tracking. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:38:30 PM EST
[#18]
I wonder if the threat of this to Starlink is why Musk has become so vocal recently about needing to end the war soonest. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:38:40 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Not sure how much of a deterrent this is considering the range of artillery and rockets. But better to do something to slow down the savages than nothing at all. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5760-3129355.jpg Or maybe Ethiopia, like the Italians did in WWII 
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:47:17 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GBTX01:
I wonder if the threat of this to Starlink is why Musk has become so vocal recently about needing to end the war soonest. Starlink is in low earth orbit. Musk has lost a lot of them too geomagnetic storms. A nuke going off in space could take down a lot of them. China is developing their own version of starlink called Guowang. These would also be in similar orbit as starlink and be just as vulnerable. |
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:51:41 PM EST
[#21]
How can the owner/operator of Twitter be so poorly informed? Watch some tweet videos Elon!
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WI, USA
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Posted: 2/14/2024 10:57:13 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: True. But who is more dependent on space satellite's? And if Russia or China have been developing doctrine with the assumption that space will be a non factor for ALL sides, they would likely have prepped for this eventuality. Meanwhile, most of US strategy and systems assumed full access to space. Surely, the US military is smart enough to be prepared and have capability for situations where they must operate without satellite for locations, comms, & targeting. Right? Right? |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:14:49 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#24]
Lviv Mayor
There are hits around the city. According to preliminary information, the windows of several houses in Lviv on Naukova Street were shattered by the blast wave. There is no information about the victims yet. The threat is still relevant. https://t.me/andriysadovyi/1965 💬 Another missile attack on Ukraine. Hit - combined. In particular, the enemy directed various types of missiles at Kyiv. They entered the city from different directions. The air alert in the capital lasted for more than 2 hours. All enemy missiles flying at Kyiv were destroyed by the forces and means of air defense. (Expect the exact number and type of missiles in Air Force reports) According to operational information, there were no victims or destruction in the capital. The city's life support system is working normally. We thank the air defense soldiers for their excellent work. We support the Armed Forces of Ukraine! The approach of peace in Ukraine after our Victory depends on each of us! ▫️ Serhiy Popko, head of the KMVA https://t.me/VA_Kyiv/4670 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:21:54 AM EST
[#25]
#Summary for the morning of February 15, 2024
▪️The morning began with a missile strike by the Russian Armed Forces against enemy targets on its territory. Explosions are heard in Kyiv, Vinnitsa, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Lutsk in the Volyn region and in the Khmelnytsky region. In Zaporozhye, there is a column of smoke in the area of the Ivchenko-Progress plant, which works closely with Motor Sich in the production of turbines for aviation. ▪️Yesterday in the Black Sea south of Crimea, enemy naval drones attacked the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov, several of them reached the target. The ship sank. ▪️In the Kherson direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold part of Krynoki, the transfer of manpower and cargo across the Dnieper is hampered by the work of our artillery and UAV operators. Our artillery is constantly working on the enemy shore. ▪️On the Zaporozhye front near Verbovoy yesterday, the movement of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was discovered, and the cluster was struck. At Rabotino our troops are conducting offensive operations. Our aviation does not stop operating in enemy rear areas, using FAB-250/500 with UMPC. ▪️In the Kurakhovsky direction, our troops are advancing in Georgievka. The Russian Armed Forces also began moving towards the settlement from the south. In the area of the village Victory – positional battles, Novomikhailovka (south of Marinka) is being stormed. ▪️In Avdeevka, our troops cut the city into two parts in the direction of Sapronova Street - Industrial Street. To the south, in the area of the settlement. The experienced Russian Armed Forces are developing an offensive to the north and northeast, trying to take enemy troops, supported from the other flank by our units from the Tsar’s Hunt area, into the fire bag. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are transferring reinforcements from selected Nazi units to the Avdeevka Sack in the hope of rectifying the situation. Kyiv, through the Western media, began preparing public opinion that “Avdiivka has no strategic importance.” ▪️In the direction to Chasov Yar, the Russian Army attacks south of Bogdanovka and in the area of the Valyanovka railway station. ▪️South of Kremennaya there are heavy battles near Belogorovka. ▪️At night, enemy drones attacked an oil depot in Kursk. In the Bryansk region, the village of Zernovo, Suzemsky district, was shelled. The summary was compiled by: Two majors https://t.me/dva_majors/34621 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:28:53 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#26]
LOL
This was BEFORE the tantrum launch. There is a fire in the Kursk region. Locals write that it is an oil depot. Let it be. PS The authorities there even confirmed that the UAV hit. https://t.me/channel24_ua/121441 As a result of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV in the Kursk region, a fire occurred at an oil depot. According to preliminary information, there are no casualties. All special services are currently working on the spot. Please remain calm. https://t.me/gubernator_46/4783 A drone attacked an oil depot in the Kursk district of the Kursk region. The governor of the region, Starovoit, announced this. A drone attack started a fire at an oil depot. According to Baza, a 100-ton tank is on fire. Firefighters are at the scene. There were no casualties. https://t.me/bazabazon/25203 ⚡️According to preliminary data, as a result of a UAV attack on an oil depot in the Kursk region, a tank with a volume of 100 tons exploded. https://t.me/kursk_now/8260 Two UAVs attacked the Polevaya oil depot in the Kursk region - source 112. According to our information, after arrival, three gasoline tanks caught fire on the territory of the enterprise, one of which partially collapsed. Initially, no one was hurt https://t.me/ENews112/16698 
Good video of firefighting.
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:34:18 AM EST
[#27]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:35:28 AM EST
[#28]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:35:52 AM EST
[#29]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:41:48 AM EST
[#30]
Summary for the morning of February 15.
🔴On the Kupyansk-Limansky section of the front north of Sinkovka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted a fire defeat on the enemy at the point 📍 49.76863, 37.71444 East of Ternov and Yampolovka, Russian troops continue assault operations in the area of Laptev Yar and Blizhny Yar. The pace of hostilities remains high. 🔴In the north of Avdeevka, Russian troops advanced west of Industrial Avenue in an area up to 600 m wide to a depth of 550 m. Fighting continues in the area of the “Western” dachas, along Industrial Avenue and Sapronov and Independence streets. On the southern flank of Avdeevka there are heavy battles in the area of the Vinogradniki 2 station and northeast of Opytny. Russian troops are attempting to encircle the Zenit and Cheburashka fortified areas. Advance of the enemy in an area up to 500 m wide to a depth of up to 530 m 🔴In the Kurakhovsky direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked enemy infantry with FPV drones in Georgievka at the point 📍 47.963913, 37.458760 A red zone has been added in an area up to 230 m wide and up to 220 m deep. https://t.me/petrenko_IHS/4509 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:57:35 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#31]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 12:57:47 AM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Yep, tantrum launch inbound. Changing the course of missiles, previously of the "Calibre" type, to Kryvorizky district of Dnipropetrovsk region. X-101/555/55 missiles are headed for the Sumy/Kharkiv region through the territory of the Russian Federation. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18721 Calibers fly past Kryvyi Rih. Movement vector - Kirovohrad region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18678 Kirovohrad region rockets in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10715 🚀→Kropyvnytskyi/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78293 💥Explosions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast https://x.com/STIVMR/status/1757964901203464458 2 calibers headed for the Kirovohrad region https://t.me/eRadarrua/12512 We expect TU95 rockets from approximately 5:30. PRELIMINARY calculation of the trajectory through Sumy region. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12514 🚀 New Ukraine - be careful! https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78294 🚀→Cherkasy/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78295 ✈️🚀Activity of tactical aviation. The threat of using Kh-59 missiles https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78297 ‼️🚀X-101/555 rocket is currently not recorded. We expect rockets in the near future via Sumy/Kharkiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78298 Rockets fly over Kirovohrad region. As of now, the movement vector is the Uman district of the Cherkasy region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18681 KR: 1. The border of Cherkasy region/Kirovohrad region → Vinnytsia, Gaisinsky district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18724 ⚠ Attention! 🛬 The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the north-eastern direction! https://t.me/kpszsu/10717 Calibers enter the airspace of Cherkaschyna, the vector of movement to the northwest through Talne. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18682 ℹ️According to PRELIMINARY information, there may be several waves of TU95 rockets. If this is confirmed, we advise you not to ignore today's alarm, take tea/coffee and head to the subway/shelter/corridors. Better to play it safe. We hope that part of the launches were simulated and there will be few rockets. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12515 The activity of Russian tactical aviation in the airspace of the Kursk and Bryansk regions of the Russian Federation. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18684 🚀Rockets come through Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78300 The first group of cruise missiles in the Sumy region, in the direction of Chernihiv region. https://t.me/kpszsu/10719 🚀→Chernihiv/region via Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78301 KR: 1. Cherkasy region, Umanskyi district→Kyiv region, Bilotserkivskyi district. 2. Sumy region, Konotopsky district (new) → Chernihiv region, Nizhinsky district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18726 Calibers from Cherkasy region heading for Kyiv region/Vinnytsia region https://t.me/eRadarrua/12517 The rockets are headed for Kyiv. https://t.me/kpszsu/10720 From Cherkasy region, Calibers enter the airspace of Bilotserkiv district of Kyiv region, the vector of movement of Vinnychyna. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18688 Flight over the south-western part of Kyiv Oblast heading for Zhytomyr Oblast / Vinnytsia Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12519 Kyiv, getting ready to meet rockets from Chernihiv Oblast! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18689 🚀→Vinnytsia/region through Kyiv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78305 Rocket in Vinnytsia heading west. https://t.me/kpszsu/10721 Vector movement of X-101 missiles from Chernihiv Oblast - Brovary! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18691 💥 Chernihiv region - air defense is working https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78308 One group of bl&din turned in the direction of Brovary district. The other keeps a course to the north of Kyiv region. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12520 KR: 1. Vinnytsia, Vinnytsia district → western course, potentially Khmelnytskyi. 2. Kyiv region, Brovarsky district → city. Kyiv. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18728 🚀 A new group of rockets across the north of Chernihiv Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12521 ‼️✈️Tu-22M3 is also in the air of the Russian Federation. Threat of launch of "X-22" missiles. https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78310 ~4🚀→Kyiv. In shelter! https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78311 🚀→Zhytomyr/region from Vinnytsia https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78312 Several groups headed for Pereyaslav-Khmelnytskyi. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12524 Another group passes the Kyiv reservoir in the north of the Kyiv region. Western course. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12525 The X-101 missile in the north of Kyiv region above the Kyiv Reservoir! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18697 Caliber from Vinnytsia to Zhytomyr region and by vector to Kyiv. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12526 Six groups of rockets in the Kyiv region, do not ignore the alarm! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18699 ~10🚀→Kyiv. Stay in shelters https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78316 BIG fucking tantrum. ⚠️🚀Launches of X-59 missiles from Su-34 https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78320 Ballistics 🚀→Zaporizhia/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78321 💥 Kyiv region - air defense is working https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78322 "The air alert continues! In the region, on the approaches to Kyiv, air defense is working. Stay in shelters until the air-raid alarm goes off!" ▫️Serhiy Popko, head of KMVA https://t.me/VA_Kyiv/4666 🚀 Belarusians are taking cover, a group of rockets from the Kyiv region are coming at you😁 https://t.me/eRadarrua/12530 🚀→Dnipropetrovsk region (Sinelnikov) https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78324 A rocket in the Zhytomyr region heading for Kyiv. https://t.me/kpszsu/10723 The second group of cruise missiles in the Sumy region, in the direction of the Poltava region. https://t.me/kpszsu/10724 Rockets maneuver from Kyiv region to Cherkasy, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr. https://t.me/kpszsu/10725 🚀→Zhytomyr/region from Kyiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78326 🚀→Vinnytsia/region from Kyiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78327 🚀 Several groups of rockets are moving through the north of Zhytomyr region along the border to the west of the country. A few more groups through Kyiv Oblast in the direction of Cherkasy Oblast/Vinnytsia Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12535 Kyiv — movement of X-101/555 rockets in the direction of the city from the eastern side. A threat to the left bank. Starokostiantyniv — the movement of Kalibr rockets in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18729 Kyiv — maneuvers around/in the direction of the city X-101/555 (~4 units) "Calibers" (~2 units) turned to the Fastiv district of Kyiv region through Zhytomyr region. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18730 KR: 1. Kyiv region, Vyshgorod district → Zhytomyr region, Korosten district. 2. Kyiv region, Bilotserkivskyi district → Cherkasy region, Umanskyi district, then Vinnytsia region. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18731 KR: 1. Zhytomyr region, Korostensky district→Rivnensky region, Rivne region. 2. Vinnytsia, Haysynskyi district→west/southwest course. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18732 ❗ Aviation missile Kh-59 on the Dnipro. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18733 Ballistics 🚀→Kyiv/region from Sumy Oblast/Cherniv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78333 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78334 💥 Kyiv - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78336 Volyn region rockets in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10731 💥 Vinnytsia - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78339 💥 Zaporizhzhia - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78340 Ballistics 🚀→Kryvyi Rih https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78342 🚀→Khmelnytskyi/region through Vinnytsia https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78343 💥Dnipro - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78344 Ballistics 🚀→Kyiv/region from Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78345 A group of cruise missiles is heading to Khmelnytskyi from Vinnytsia. https://t.me/kpszsu/10732 In Khmelnytskyi region, the rocket movement vector is Starokostyantiniv! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18725 💥Dnipro - explosions again https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78350 Will 🚀→Dnipro https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78351 Rockets through the Volyn region to the Lviv region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18729 Rockets enter the Lviv region, the Sokal/Chervonograd movement vector! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18731 Single launches of ballistics in the direction of the Dnipro continue. Kyiv is clean.* Additional launches reported. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18740 KR: 1. Volyn, Lutsky district→Lviv region, Chervonogradsky district. 2. Khmelnych region, Khmelnytsky district→Ternopil region, Ternopil district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18741 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78358 From the side of Chervonograd, heading for Lviv. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12556 🚨 Lviv - 2 minutes of time. Running for cover. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12557 💥 Khmelnytskyi - air defense works https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78361 ~4🚀→Lviv. In shelter https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78362 Approximately 4 rockets on Lviv! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18737 ❗️ Lviv, now it will be loud! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18738 💥 Lviv - powerful explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78363 🚨 One group flew over Lviv, the second on the approach to the city. From Khmelnytskyi, the rocket is headed for Ternopil. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12559 Rockets from Khmelnytskyi to Ternopil. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18740 Ivano Frankivsk group of missiles in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10737 🚀→Ternopil/region from Khmelnytskyi https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78365 🚀→Ivano-Frankivsk/region from Lviv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78366 Lviv - hold on. The group from Lviv region turned to Frankivsk. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12560 Turned around. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12563 💥 Lviv - explosions again https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78368 Lviv region — remnants of rockets within Zolochiv district. The course is variable. Khmelnytskyi is a turn of the rocket from Ternopil Oblast, will fly along/in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18745 Starokostiantyniv — rocket movement in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18746 🚀→Lviv/region from Frankiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78375 In the Lviv region, the rocket is heading for Lviv again. Flying in a circle! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18747 💥 Lviv region - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78377 💥 Lviv - repeated explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78378 The rockets are located in Lviv Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, the course is constantly changing. https://t.me/kpszsu/10738 Lviv rocket within the city limits https://t.me/kpszsu/10739 Ternopil rocket in your direction from Khmelnytskyi. https://t.me/kpszsu/10740 A rocket flies in a circle in Khmelnytskyi, the vector of motion is Ternopil region. There is also a rocket in Lviv Oblast, flew over Lviv, is flying in the direction of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (Burshtyn). https://t.me/operatyvnii/18750 🚨According to preliminary information, there will be more X-101s from the Caspian. We are waiting. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12565 If confirmed, we expect the second wave approximately from 7:30.(0040ET) https://t.me/eRadarrua/12572 🚀 again→Ivano-Frankivsk/region from Lviv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78385 Ternopil — movement of rockets along/in the direction of the city. U-turn from Khmelnytskyi. In Lviv Oblast, rockets are fired in the direction of Stryi district, along Lviv. Maneuvering https://t.me/monitorwarr/18748 All the rest are headed for the Ivano-Frankivsk district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18749 ⚠️ Currently, the missile threat: ▪️ Ternopil Oblast, ▪️Lviv Oblast, ▪️ Ivano-Frankivsk region. Stay in the open x 🙏 https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78387 A rocket through Ternopil Oblast to Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Burshtyn movement vector! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18753 💥Ivano-Frankivsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78389 Berezhany/Burshtyn/Rohatyn course. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12574 🟢 07:02 Repulse of the alarm in the city of Kyiv. Stay tuned for further posts. #m. Kyiv https://t.me/air_alert_ua/75300 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Vinnytsia region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in m. Kyiv 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Chernihiv region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Sumy region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Cherkasy region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Zhytomyr region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Poltava https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78396 📢 Repelling the missile threat. https://t.me/kpszsu/10742 ~2355ET 4 TU-95ms boards approach landing on Engels https://t.me/vanek_nikolaev/21509 END PART 1 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGWKCHXWUAAEbRd?format=jpg&name=small Yep, tantrum launch inbound. Changing the course of missiles, previously of the "Calibre" type, to Kryvorizky district of Dnipropetrovsk region. X-101/555/55 missiles are headed for the Sumy/Kharkiv region through the territory of the Russian Federation. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18721 Calibers fly past Kryvyi Rih. Movement vector - Kirovohrad region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18678 Kirovohrad region rockets in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10715 🚀→Kropyvnytskyi/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78293 💥Explosions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast https://x.com/STIVMR/status/1757964901203464458 2 calibers headed for the Kirovohrad region https://t.me/eRadarrua/12512 We expect TU95 rockets from approximately 5:30. PRELIMINARY calculation of the trajectory through Sumy region. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12514 🚀 New Ukraine - be careful! https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78294 🚀→Cherkasy/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78295 ✈️🚀Activity of tactical aviation. The threat of using Kh-59 missiles https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78297 ‼️🚀X-101/555 rocket is currently not recorded. We expect rockets in the near future via Sumy/Kharkiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78298 Rockets fly over Kirovohrad region. As of now, the movement vector is the Uman district of the Cherkasy region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18681 KR: 1. The border of Cherkasy region/Kirovohrad region → Vinnytsia, Gaisinsky district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18724 ⚠ Attention! 🛬 The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the north-eastern direction! https://t.me/kpszsu/10717 Calibers enter the airspace of Cherkaschyna, the vector of movement to the northwest through Talne. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18682 ℹ️According to PRELIMINARY information, there may be several waves of TU95 rockets. If this is confirmed, we advise you not to ignore today's alarm, take tea/coffee and head to the subway/shelter/corridors. Better to play it safe. We hope that part of the launches were simulated and there will be few rockets. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12515 The activity of Russian tactical aviation in the airspace of the Kursk and Bryansk regions of the Russian Federation. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18684 🚀Rockets come through Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78300 The first group of cruise missiles in the Sumy region, in the direction of Chernihiv region. https://t.me/kpszsu/10719 🚀→Chernihiv/region via Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78301 KR: 1. Cherkasy region, Umanskyi district→Kyiv region, Bilotserkivskyi district. 2. Sumy region, Konotopsky district (new) → Chernihiv region, Nizhinsky district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18726 Calibers from Cherkasy region heading for Kyiv region/Vinnytsia region https://t.me/eRadarrua/12517 The rockets are headed for Kyiv. https://t.me/kpszsu/10720 From Cherkasy region, Calibers enter the airspace of Bilotserkiv district of Kyiv region, the vector of movement of Vinnychyna. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18688 Flight over the south-western part of Kyiv Oblast heading for Zhytomyr Oblast / Vinnytsia Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12519 Kyiv, getting ready to meet rockets from Chernihiv Oblast! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18689 🚀→Vinnytsia/region through Kyiv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78305 Rocket in Vinnytsia heading west. https://t.me/kpszsu/10721 Vector movement of X-101 missiles from Chernihiv Oblast - Brovary! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18691 💥 Chernihiv region - air defense is working https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78308 One group of bl&din turned in the direction of Brovary district. The other keeps a course to the north of Kyiv region. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12520 KR: 1. Vinnytsia, Vinnytsia district → western course, potentially Khmelnytskyi. 2. Kyiv region, Brovarsky district → city. Kyiv. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18728 🚀 A new group of rockets across the north of Chernihiv Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12521 ‼️✈️Tu-22M3 is also in the air of the Russian Federation. Threat of launch of "X-22" missiles. https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78310 ~4🚀→Kyiv. In shelter! https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78311 🚀→Zhytomyr/region from Vinnytsia https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78312 Several groups headed for Pereyaslav-Khmelnytskyi. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12524 Another group passes the Kyiv reservoir in the north of the Kyiv region. Western course. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12525 The X-101 missile in the north of Kyiv region above the Kyiv Reservoir! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18697 Caliber from Vinnytsia to Zhytomyr region and by vector to Kyiv. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12526 Six groups of rockets in the Kyiv region, do not ignore the alarm! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18699 ~10🚀→Kyiv. Stay in shelters https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78316 BIG fucking tantrum. ⚠️🚀Launches of X-59 missiles from Su-34 https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78320 Ballistics 🚀→Zaporizhia/region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78321 💥 Kyiv region - air defense is working https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78322 "The air alert continues! In the region, on the approaches to Kyiv, air defense is working. Stay in shelters until the air-raid alarm goes off!" ▫️Serhiy Popko, head of KMVA https://t.me/VA_Kyiv/4666 🚀 Belarusians are taking cover, a group of rockets from the Kyiv region are coming at you😁 https://t.me/eRadarrua/12530 🚀→Dnipropetrovsk region (Sinelnikov) https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78324 A rocket in the Zhytomyr region heading for Kyiv. https://t.me/kpszsu/10723 The second group of cruise missiles in the Sumy region, in the direction of the Poltava region. https://t.me/kpszsu/10724 Rockets maneuver from Kyiv region to Cherkasy, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr. https://t.me/kpszsu/10725 🚀→Zhytomyr/region from Kyiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78326 🚀→Vinnytsia/region from Kyiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78327 🚀 Several groups of rockets are moving through the north of Zhytomyr region along the border to the west of the country. A few more groups through Kyiv Oblast in the direction of Cherkasy Oblast/Vinnytsia Oblast. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12535 Kyiv — movement of X-101/555 rockets in the direction of the city from the eastern side. A threat to the left bank. Starokostiantyniv — the movement of Kalibr rockets in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18729 Kyiv — maneuvers around/in the direction of the city X-101/555 (~4 units) "Calibers" (~2 units) turned to the Fastiv district of Kyiv region through Zhytomyr region. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18730 KR: 1. Kyiv region, Vyshgorod district → Zhytomyr region, Korosten district. 2. Kyiv region, Bilotserkivskyi district → Cherkasy region, Umanskyi district, then Vinnytsia region. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18731 KR: 1. Zhytomyr region, Korostensky district→Rivnensky region, Rivne region. 2. Vinnytsia, Haysynskyi district→west/southwest course. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18732 ❗ Aviation missile Kh-59 on the Dnipro. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18733 Ballistics 🚀→Kyiv/region from Sumy Oblast/Cherniv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78333 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78334 💥 Kyiv - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78336 Volyn region rockets in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10731 💥 Vinnytsia - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78339 💥 Zaporizhzhia - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78340 Ballistics 🚀→Kryvyi Rih https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78342 🚀→Khmelnytskyi/region through Vinnytsia https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78343 💥Dnipro - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78344 Ballistics 🚀→Kyiv/region from Sumy Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78345 A group of cruise missiles is heading to Khmelnytskyi from Vinnytsia. https://t.me/kpszsu/10732 In Khmelnytskyi region, the rocket movement vector is Starokostyantiniv! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18725 💥Dnipro - explosions again https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78350 Will 🚀→Dnipro https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78351 Rockets through the Volyn region to the Lviv region. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18729 Rockets enter the Lviv region, the Sokal/Chervonograd movement vector! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18731 Single launches of ballistics in the direction of the Dnipro continue. Kyiv is clean.* Additional launches reported. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18740 KR: 1. Volyn, Lutsky district→Lviv region, Chervonogradsky district. 2. Khmelnych region, Khmelnytsky district→Ternopil region, Ternopil district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18741 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78358 From the side of Chervonograd, heading for Lviv. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12556 🚨 Lviv - 2 minutes of time. Running for cover. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12557 💥 Khmelnytskyi - air defense works https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78361 ~4🚀→Lviv. In shelter https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78362 Approximately 4 rockets on Lviv! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18737 ❗️ Lviv, now it will be loud! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18738 💥 Lviv - powerful explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78363 🚨 One group flew over Lviv, the second on the approach to the city. From Khmelnytskyi, the rocket is headed for Ternopil. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12559 Rockets from Khmelnytskyi to Ternopil. https://t.me/operatyvnii/18740 Ivano Frankivsk group of missiles in your direction. https://t.me/kpszsu/10737 🚀→Ternopil/region from Khmelnytskyi https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78365 🚀→Ivano-Frankivsk/region from Lviv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78366 Lviv - hold on. The group from Lviv region turned to Frankivsk. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12560 Turned around. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12563 💥 Lviv - explosions again https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78368 Lviv region — remnants of rockets within Zolochiv district. The course is variable. Khmelnytskyi is a turn of the rocket from Ternopil Oblast, will fly along/in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18745 Starokostiantyniv — rocket movement in the direction of the city. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18746 🚀→Lviv/region from Frankiv region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78375 In the Lviv region, the rocket is heading for Lviv again. Flying in a circle! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18747 💥 Lviv region - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78377 💥 Lviv - repeated explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78378 The rockets are located in Lviv Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, the course is constantly changing. https://t.me/kpszsu/10738 Lviv rocket within the city limits https://t.me/kpszsu/10739 Ternopil rocket in your direction from Khmelnytskyi. https://t.me/kpszsu/10740 A rocket flies in a circle in Khmelnytskyi, the vector of motion is Ternopil region. There is also a rocket in Lviv Oblast, flew over Lviv, is flying in the direction of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast (Burshtyn). https://t.me/operatyvnii/18750 🚨According to preliminary information, there will be more X-101s from the Caspian. We are waiting. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12565 If confirmed, we expect the second wave approximately from 7:30.(0040ET) https://t.me/eRadarrua/12572 🚀 again→Ivano-Frankivsk/region from Lviv Oblast https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78385 Ternopil — movement of rockets along/in the direction of the city. U-turn from Khmelnytskyi. In Lviv Oblast, rockets are fired in the direction of Stryi district, along Lviv. Maneuvering https://t.me/monitorwarr/18748 All the rest are headed for the Ivano-Frankivsk district. https://t.me/monitorwarr/18749 ⚠️ Currently, the missile threat: ▪️ Ternopil Oblast, ▪️Lviv Oblast, ▪️ Ivano-Frankivsk region. Stay in the open x 🙏 https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78387 A rocket through Ternopil Oblast to Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Burshtyn movement vector! https://t.me/operatyvnii/18753 💥Ivano-Frankivsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78389 Berezhany/Burshtyn/Rohatyn course. https://t.me/eRadarrua/12574 🟢 07:02 Repulse of the alarm in the city of Kyiv. Stay tuned for further posts. #m. Kyiv https://t.me/air_alert_ua/75300 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Vinnytsia region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in m. Kyiv 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Chernihiv region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Sumy region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Cherkasy region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Zhytomyr region 🟢 07:02 Repulse pov. anxiety in Poltava https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78396 📢 Repelling the missile threat. https://t.me/kpszsu/10742 ~2355ET 4 TU-95ms boards approach landing on Engels https://t.me/vanek_nikolaev/21509 END PART 1 So far this winter the Ukrainian grid hasn’t taken the beating it did last winter. We’re also 3.5 weeks past Russian Orthodox Epiphany and reports are the ground is thawing. It looks like Shouvalov’s theory was either bunk to start with or the A-50 kill scuppered the whole plan. Sure, they can still launch a massed missile offensive, but the heart of winter is pretty much over, and there goes some of their leverage. Another explanation is that the Novocherkassk really was storing a shitload of Shaheds, and blowing it up took that plan with it. |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:00:06 AM EST
[#33]
HOT OFF THE PRESS!!!
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:01:55 AM EST
[#34]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:06:34 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: HOT OFF THE PRESS!!! https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5761-3129710.jpg https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/494438/IMG_5762-3129711.jpg The fire in the Izvestia Hall building was assigned the third rank. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the burning area is increasing. https://t.me/rentv_news/128351 The area of the fire in the Izvestia Hall building in Moscow has grown to 1,500 square meters. meters, reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations. https://t.me/tass_agency/231767 ▶️ Fire extinguishing in three unused buildings inside the Izvestia Hall courtyard is complicated by the high fire load. The press service of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations reported this to TASS. https://t.me/tass_agency/231782 The fire in the courtyard of the Izvestia Hall building in the center of Moscow has been localized, operational services reported. https://t.me/tass_agency/231784 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:06:58 AM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGRX1lYX0AAzDcJ?format=jpg&name=large Shazaam! Quad 14.5s |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:13:56 AM EST
[#37]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:19:02 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#38]
PART 2
🔴 08:08 Air alarm in Kharkiv region 🔴 08:08 Air alarm in Poltava 🔴 08:08 Air alarm in Donetsk region 🔴 08:08 Air alarm in Dnipropetrovsk region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78409 ⚠️🚀 The threat of using ballistic missiles https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78410 🚀→Dnipro/region through Donetsk region https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78411 💥Dnipropetrovsk - explosions https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78412 ‼️ At the moment, the rockets are clear. Do not leave the shelter until the break https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78413 ⚠️🚢 As of 8:00 a.m. 02/15/24: 1 missile carrier in the Black Sea. The total volley is 4 Kalibr missiles. https://t.me/povitryanatrivogaaa/78414 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:37:50 AM EST
[#39]
⚡️ Consequences of the morning combined and massive attack of the Rashists
▪️In the Myrhorod district of the Poltava region, a warehouse was hit, as a result of which there was a fire on an area of 100 "squares", OVA reported that there were no victims or victims. ▪️More than 10 rockets flew at the Lviv region, the anti-aircraft defenses handled this attack well, but in Lviv, one hit an infrastructure facility, - Sadovy ▪️Kyiv region - all missiles were shot down by air defense without destruction or casualties, - KMVA ▪️In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the enemy attacked civil infrastructure objects, - DniproOVA ▪️In Zaporizhzhia, there is a hit on an infrastructure object. ▪️In Khmelnytskyi region, the enemy struck civilian objects, without casualties - OVA https://t.me/Tsaplienko/48377 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:40:12 AM EST
[#40]
#працьюегур
🔥 Scouts burned the Russian radar along with the service 💥 On February 13, 2024, special forces of the GUR group of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine "Gusy-9" struck the Russian radar station "Kasta-2E2" in the area of the Russian-Ukrainian border. 👉 "Kasta-2E2" is a mobile three-coordinate radar with a decimeter range of circular vision, designed for: ● airspace control; ● determination of coordinates; ● recognition of aerial targets. ✔️ The indicated station is able to detect objects at extremely low altitudes, determine their track characteristics and transmit the coordinates and parameters of the target's movement to the air defense control system. ▫️ Detection range - up to 150 km. ❌ As a result of fire damage, the Russian "Kasta-2E2" was disabled, and the radar service suffered losses. ❗️ Before the strike of Ukrainian scouts, the enemy's radar complex was monitoring the air over Kharkiv and Sumy regions of Ukraine, as well as over Belgorod and, probably, Kursk and Voronezh regions of the Russian Federation. 🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine! https://t.me/DIUkraine/3471  Розвідники спалили російську РЛС разом з обслугою |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 1:59:46 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#41]
 Wow. 
  
 
 
   
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Posted: 2/15/2024 2:01:57 AM EST
[Last Edit: yekimak]
[#42]
Dupe
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Posted: 2/15/2024 2:08:55 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#43]
⚔️ The defense of Avdiivka continues 💬The enemy advanced again in the north and south of the city. In the south, their main task is to surround Zenit, and in the north to push the Defense Forces as far as possible. The situation continues to deteriorate due to the incessant shelling of anti-aircraft guns and rockets. The Katsaps want to cut off AKHZ as much as possible and get to the 9th quarter. The enemy's assault groups concentrate on those areas where they are successful. At the same time, the accumulation of manpower in occupied houses in the city continues. https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18842 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 2:15:17 AM EST
[#44]
Friends, yesterday I wrote that Igor Strelkov has not been given visits with his loved ones for 7 months and is completely isolated from communicating with people, and all requests for visits and even to call his mother are ignored.
As always happens, the publicity brought results. Immediately after the publication, in the evening of the same day, FSIN employees immediately responded to Igor’s request to call his mother, an application for which he wrote... 7 months ago. The request was written to the judge and transmitted through the administration of the pre-trial detention center. This is common practice, and the institution's administration is required by law to forward the application to the judge. For some reason, the institution’s staff returned Igor’s application, saying that they could not provide him with a call or a meeting without the judge’s permission. That is, the situation has become even more confusing. And yet, these are at least some actions on the part of the administration that began thanks to your publicity. Before this they ignored us. I will continue to seek a meeting with my husband. This situation is another confirmation that we are strong when we are together. Thank you! https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/937 |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 2/15/2024 2:21:32 AM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: How can the owner/operator of Twitter be so poorly informed? Watch some tweet videos Elon!
Elon, this is Neville. He used to believe in peace at any price too, but he did hedge his bets by re-arming. About 85 years ago. |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 3:04:36 AM EST
[#46]
Africa tangent
 https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1685211892870975488 Is the Democratic Republic of Congo Considering a Pivot to Russia? In August 2022, the minister of defense of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gilbert Kabanda Kurhenga, visited Moscow to attend the 10th Conference on International Security. On the sidelines of the conference, he met a number of his Russian counterparts, such as the deputy minister of defense, Alexander Fomin. During his visit, Kabanda declared that “[t]he Russian Federation, as a good friend, has always refrained from blackmailing us, blaming us or imposing subjective sanctions[.]” According to reports, he even “went so far as to express a ‘strong desire’ for ‘multifaceted support’ from Moscow against the armed groups present in the eastern DRC.” On the Russian side, the head of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, Anatoly Punchuk, reassured “Minister Gilbert Kabanda of the availability of his country to equip the FARDC [Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo] and train Congolese officers.” This didn’t seem far-fetched: Russia delivered a large consignment of weapons to the DRC in February 2021. Leaked documents showed this consignment included 10,000 Kalashnikov rifles and around 3 million cartridges of ammunition. What was particularly striking about this delivery was that it was a gift, paid for by the Russian government. But the situation is more complicated than Kabanda’s meetings would indicate. Soon after, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi publicly disavowed some of his minister of defense’s comments, saying that he had gone “off script” in Moscow and had been talking from a personal, rather than a government, perspective. In doing so, Tshisekedi was trying to make sure that he did not upset Europe and the United States, which are important partners for the Tshisekedi government. There is a struggle for influence happening in the DRC. Although the president guaranteed Western diplomats that support from Moscow is not on the table—something he later repeated in an interview with the Financial Times—there are pressures within his administration to shift to Russia. This tension was evident in a series of more than 30 interviews I conducted with a range of individuals: Congolese policymakers focused on security and foreign policy, international diplomats, journalists, analysts, and civil society actors. Most of the interviews were conducted in Kinshasa in October 2022, while others were conducted online. Although Russia plays an active role in this quest for influence by offering incentives, such as those shipments of weapons, anti-Western sentiments in the DRC are at least as important. These sentiments have been magnified by the M23 rebellion and perceptions of Western complicity in this crisis. This has resulted in pressure within the Congolese administration, particularly from the security forces, to “shift to Russia,” as well as Western efforts to counter this influence. Russia’s Growing Influence in Congo Russia has been particularly active over the past several years in trying to extend its influence through parts of Africa—a policy that has been documented in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Sudan. In these countries, Moscow has been extending its political, security, and economic influence. The Wagner Group’s security partnerships are the most visible manifestations of this policy, but Russia has also invested in African countries’ mining and energy sectors. With its minerals and ongoing conflict, the DRC fits the criteria for Russia’s interests—a fact affirmed by leaked Russian documents from 2018 and 2019. And, indeed, there has been an increase in Russian activity in the DRC over the past several years. In June 2018, the DRC and Russia ratified a military and technical cooperation agreement that had been dormant for 19 years. The deal was initially signed by Laurent Kabila in 1999 but was set aside until Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov visited Kinshasa nearly two decades later. The agreement covers a range of issues, including provisions about arms deliveries, advisory missions, and the training of military specialists in Russian schools. Since 2018, Russia has explicitly expressed a desire to further develop this military cooperation; it is particularly interested in assisting the DRC’s efforts to combat armed groups in the east and is waiting for a formal request from Kinshasa. The weapons delivery in 2021 was seen as a way to build on the deal, trying a tactic Russia had used previously with the Central African Republic, to which Russia gave a major consignment of weapons in early 2018. That donation meant the (unannounced) beginning of Wagner’s operations in the Central African Republic: The weapons delivery was accompanied by 175 Wagner Group military instructors. Moreover, there’s a strong demand in Kinshasa for weapons as well. The Tshisekedi government recently approved an ambitious military spending plan, worth $3.5 billion from 2022 to 2025. The DRC government is looking to buy weapons and talking with a wide range of suppliers. Congolese security officials told me that Russia is considered a particularly attractive partner. Because the Congolese army is equipped with post-Soviet Russian-made weapons, Russia is seen as a one-stop shop to buy compatible arms cheaply and in greater quantities. Moreover, Russia is seen as being an easier partner with which to work. In the words of a former security official I interviewed, “[Russia] wouldn’t go through all these hurdles which the West imposes.” Another significant event was the 2021 arrival of Russian diplomat Viktor Tokmakovin Kinshasa as the embassy’s second in command. Tokmakov previously was based in the Central African Republic, where he was widely considered one of the architects of the Wagner Group’s activities in the country. His arrival and engagement with figures from the Congolese political and military establishment has been seen as a prelude to the arrival of Wagner forces. Throughout this period, Russian contacts have continued: A delegation of members of the Russian parliament visited the Congolese parliament to discuss “security issues” in December 2022, and there have been a series of high-level meetings between the Russian ambassador and the Congolese government, including separate meetings with the president and DRC’s first lady. The Yango ride-hailing app, owned by Russian information technology giant Yandex, expanded its African operations to Kinshasa in August 2022. Despite Russia’s considerable efforts, these contacts haven’t materialized into much—just (unconfirmed) reports about orders of military helicopters from Moscow and (likely false) rumors about the arrival of the Wagner Group. The M23 Crisis and Anti-Western Sentiment Russian efforts for influence are less important than the strong anti-Western sentiment held by many in the DRC. In March 2022, the M23 rebellion launched a new offensive in the North Kivu province in the eastern Congo. The renewed activity of the rebel group, which had been largely dormant for about 10 years, led to a major humanitarian crisis, with over 450,000 people displaced and many killed. Despite mounting evidence of Rwandan support to the rebel group, the international community was slow to condemn Rwanda, with many countries choosing not to publicly condemn the country. Congolese felt that very little action was taken to support their sovereignty—a point made more stark by comparison with the invasion of Ukraine, which began soon after. In the words of an army commander I spoke with: “We also condemned Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. Our problems are the same, we also were invaded by a neighboring country, Rwanda. But the West never acknowledged the aggression on the DRC.” The U.N. notification regime for the DRC, which obliges all weapons exports to the Congolese government to be reported to the U.N. sanctions committee, has proved to be a contentious issue. The requirement was established through a 2008 U.N. Security Council resolution, which ended the weapons embargo for the Congolese state but kept it in place for armed groups. A new U.N. resolution in June 2022 further weakened the notification requirements and applied only to a smaller group of light weapons and military training provided by third parties. Although weakened, the notification requirements led to frustration among Congolese officials, many of whom feel that they have prevented the Congolese government from buying the necessary weapons to defeat the M23 rebels. Many considered this an “embargo, but framed differently.” In the words of an army commander I interviewed: They force this embargo on us in an intelligent way: They tell us, in order to get weapons, you need to register them. But this is not acceptable for a sovereign country. How can a country that is fighting armed groups, that is fighting against terrorists—why do we need to do so? Why do we need all these authorizations? … Us Congolese, we do find this unjust. This is just a weapon embargo of which they changed the name. Part of this perception is a product of widespread misunderstanding of the notification regime, but it is also a result of political instrumentalization. There’s a broad consensus among analysts that what is needed is primarily a structural reform of the Congolese army to address its weaknesses; buying more weapons will not solve its problems. Blaming the notification regime has allowed the military to externalize responsibility and shift attention to access to weapons sales, putting the blame on the West. Despite this degree of instrumentalization, the qualms expressed about the notification regime infringing on the DRC’s sovereignty are widely shared. The U.N.’s conditions tapped into a sense of national pride and are considered a humiliation and means for the West to exert continued control of the DRC. These feelings have a long history in the country, with the way in which the “West” is understood to include not only the United States, France, and the United Kingdom but also the United Nations and its peacekeeping force in the DRC, MONUSCO. Many Congolese feel that these actors impose a whole barrage of conditions on the DRC that do not help the Congolese but, rather, further suppress the country’s development and the military’s ability to secure the country. The U.N. notification regime is perceived to be just the latest manifestation of this. Among Congolese army officials, the MONUSCO conditionality policy (which involved human rights screening of officers before the military could receive MONUSCO support and involved MONUSCO maintaining an undisclosed “black list”) also added fuel to the fire, as did the EU and U.S. sanctions against senior army officers. Many officials have a sense that all of this would be much easier with Russia, which doesn’t demand compliance with human rights and weapons sales conditions. An army commander summarized this to me in the following manner: “The perception we have here in the DRC is that we receive threats from the West: We got sanctions which are unjust. We are menaced, threatened. We have problems in getting weapons—they put embargoes on us. … When there’s elections or other issues, they see always problems.” Russia has worked to amplify the message that the West and the United Nations have tried to keep the DRC under their control. It has also, at least rhetorically, opposed the notification regime, calling it an “arms embargo” on social media—though, while Russia could have voted against the notification regime at the U.N. Security Council, it didn’t, choosing instead to abstain. These anti-Western sentiments have been amplified by other recent actions by the United Nations and European Union. First, all of this has happened amid strong frustrations with MONUSCO, which most Congolese consider to be largely ineffective, and has led to violent protests against the United Nations. These feelings have been fueled by a statement by U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who stated in a TV interview with French media that the U.N. peacekeepers are “unable to defeat M23.” “The truth,” he told France24, “is that the M23 is today a modern army, with heavy equipment that is more advanced than the equipment of MONUSCO.” Second, the European Union, through its European Peace Facility, announced that it would give 20 million euros to the Rwandan Defense Forces for their deployment in Mozambique. The prospect of Europe aiding Rwanda, even as evidence mounts that the Rwandan government is aiding the M23 rebellion, has particularly upset the Congolese government and broader Congolese public. From Anti-Western to Pro-Russia These events have inflamed anti-Western sentiments in the DRC—particularly against the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, which the general public accuses of not only inaction toward M23 and Rwanda but also active support of the rebellion and its foreign backers. In the current geopolitical context, these tensions have translated into pro-Russian attitudes. After Guterres’s statement, a high-level security official told me that it had generated frustration in security circles and a readiness to shift to a new partner. “If that’s what you’re saying, what are you doing here?” he said. “Please take your baggage, and leave—we’ll find another way to solve the M23 question. Why should we be helped by people who said they’re not capable of helping? That’s how we’re orienting ourselves to Russia. What Wagner did in [the Central African Republic], they can also do here in the DRC.” Russia has become both an avenue to protest the West and an instrument to exercise pressure. Several diplomatic sources relayed an incident in which President Tshisekedi, meeting with EU diplomats after news broke about the EU security assistance for the Rwandan Defense Forces, asked them, incredulously, “You don’t understand you are pushing us towards Russia in this way?” In other words, contested policy choices by Western countries or the U.N. have led to the threat of going to Russia. Similarly, some Congolese interlocutors told me that the Tshisekedi regime had made the “Russia threat” to obtain more weapons from the West to combat M23, but the move did not result in greater arms provision. Overall, though, the geopolitical landscape is in flux, and the Congolese government’s exercise of the “Russia option” is at least as much about the way it can be leveraged in relations with the West as it is of its actual Russia policy. This dynamic was also evident in the 2018 ratification of the long-dormant Russian military agreement; the move came at the very end of the Kabila regime, and, while strengthening ties with Moscow, it also was a rebuke to Western criticism of Kabila’s extended rule. This shift from rhetoric to reality is being reinforced by the perception that the West is, as a Congolese security adviser told me, “demanding a lot, but doesn’t give much.” This feeling is especially strong with regard to the United States, which is particularly important for Tshisekedi. Washington played a central role in his appointment as president, and his relationship with the United States is seen as a major counterbalance to former President Kabila’s ties to China (and a similar frustration with the DRC’s relationship with China is evident as well). But various Congolese interlocutors have expressed frustration with the supposedly “special” partnership Tshisekedi has with the United States, which—it is felt—hasn’t translated into much in the way of concrete investments. As a Congolese army official summed it up to me, “Why have endless meetings with the West—including the U.N.? Why not do as Mali and [the Central African Republic] have done and switch to Russia?” Statements like this signal not only anti-Western sentiments but also a degree of opportunism. I was often told by officials across the Congolese government, “We’ve tried the EU, the U.S., China. Why don’t we try Russia?” Western governments have tried to address this potential pivot to Russia in a number of ways. On the one hand, they have expressed concerns about the DRC-Russia rapprochement, publicly and directly to the Tshekedi government. The issue was raised by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo in a bilateral meeting with President Tshisekedi during the U.N. General Assembly last fall. It also came up during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Kinshasa in August 2022. On the other hand, Western governments have also taken action. For example, interviews with diplomats and Congolese officials highlighted how France was the main driving force behind the decision to lift the highly unpopular notification regime against the DRC in December 2022—with the French minister of state for development visiting Kinshasa the day after. In doing so, they hoped to get back into Kinshasa’s favor. That being said, frustrations with the West remain—particularly within the Congolese security sector. Security officials see weapons as a central issue: The West is very hesitant to supply weapons, instead preferring to supply nonlethal equipment. As an army commander told me, “None of this would happen with Russia—sanctions, demands, human rights—none of this business would be present.” Another commander pointed to what he considered a Russian success story. “What is happening in Mali, I can’t believe it,” he said. “It is so noble and, in the current African context, very unexpected. They [the Russians] are right to say that the time has come for Africans to reclaim their independence. We are at a turning point.” It’s no surprise that the minister of defense, who had such glowing comments about the DRC-Russia relationship last summer, is a retired army general and is advised mostly by army officers. Civilian policymakers express more nuanced views—often anti-Western, but not necessarily pro-Russia. In the estimation of one civilian interlocutor working in the security sector, the DRC should “use the determination of the Ukrainians to resist against our aggressors before relying on Russia, which will do absolutely nothing. Putin will never decide to attack Rwanda for us. So stop dreaming and supporting a meaningless carnival. The DRC is a giant. Unfortunately, it has become a dwarf due to lack of self-esteem.” In this overall context, the broader public seems to generally hold pro-Russian attitudes. This was illustrated starkly by a nationwide poll conducted in January 2023, which showed that Russia has by far the most support among a roster of foreign countries and international organizations—61 percent of Congolese expressed a “good” or “very good” opinion of the country. Some manifestations of pro-Russia feeling appeared during demonstrations in support of the Congolese army in their fight against M23; some demonstrators—including a delegation of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), the party of President Tshisekedi—held placards in support of Putin, asking him to intervene. In Kinshasa, a number of small demonstrations were held in support of Russia last year. And dozens of young people demonstrating against French President Emmanuel Macron’s arrival in Kinshasa on a visit in early March were holding pro-Russian placards. This environment is fertile ground for misinformation on social media, particularly against individual Western actors. A widely shared video purportedly showed the French ambassador being chased from the Congolese parliament, and another popular post showed images of a French plane stationed in the eastern Congo supposedly supplying weapons to M23. Both were incorrect and have been debunkedin a number of publications, but they are indicative of the national mood. The “Lumumba Scenario” So, with all this pro-Russia sentiment, why hasn’t the Tshisekedi government developed closer relations with Russia—for example, buying more weapons from Russia? There’s been pressure on the president to do so from a variety of constituencies within his administration. Yet here the potential long-term consequences seem to play a role and are an important reason why the Russia option is not being pursued more thoroughly. Regime insiders and analysts cited one name—or, better, one scenario—over and over: the “Lumumba scenario.” In brief, Patrice Lumumba, DRC’s first prime minister after independence, turned to Russia after not getting the support he needed from the West; it ultimately led to his assassination. Insiders claim that the current regime fears a similar scenario. The president, and many other officials in the Congolese government, don’t feel that they are receiving the support they need from the West, and so they are considering turning to Russia. They don’t fear that pivoting to Russia would result in Tshisekedi’s assassination, but they do worry that it would ultimately result in their losing power: The West would undoubtedly reduce its support (both politically and economically) for the regime, and this would threaten the power of President Tshisekedi, while the networks of former President Kabila, a potential rival, remain strong. This helps explain why Tshisekedi now holds the Russia dossier so tightly. Throughout 2022—and particularly in the second half of 2022—the various bodies working on foreign policy and security within the Congolese administration were full of discussion on the issue, but by the end of the year, the dossier had largely disappeared from these fora. Instead, it became firmly controlled by the presidency. Since then, an increasing number of other actors have gotten involved in the DRC. Turkey, Russia’s main competitor in Africa’s arms market, has started delivering weapons to the Congolese government, as has South Africa. The Congolese government has also started working with around 400 private Romanian soldiers and has bought Chinese military drones. And, important symbolically, the Congolese minister of defense met the Ukrainian vice minister of defense on Feb. 11 in Kinshasa, where they stated their intent to improve their bilateral collaboration. Russia may not even be in a place to provide the support the DRC would like. It’s questionable whether the Wagner Group could send troops; their operations are already stretched thin in Africa, and it would be difficult for them to relocate from the Central African Republic, Mali, or Libya to the DRC. The Russian presence in Congo is also limited, generally. Its embassy, for example, has only five diplomatic staff, a particularly small number compared to other missions. That being said, there’s much more to Russian engagement than Wagner alone—as its engagement in other African countries has shown. Much will be determined by how long the Tshisekedi government remains on good terms with the Western diplomatic community. There are increasing concerns among policymakers about a range of governance issues, such as the level of corruption in the Tshisekedi regime (including in the direct entourage of the president), the auctioning of oil blocks in protected areas, and a contested deal with Dan Gertler, a controversial businessman who has been under U.S. sanctions since 2017. The upcoming elections will be crucial for the DRC’s international partners—a view that Secretary Blinken expressed explicitly during his visit to Kinshasa—but there are already worries looming about the electoral process. It remains to be seen how, and if, the DRC’s relationship with the West will hold up in these circumstances. Kristof Titeca (@KristofTiteca) is professor of development studies at the Institute of Development Policy, University of Antwerp. https://democracyinafrica.org/is-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-considering-a-pivot-to-russia/ https://www.lawfareblog.com/democratic-republic-congo-considering-pivot-russia
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Posted: 2/15/2024 3:57:04 AM EST
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#47]
A crater near Kiev from our rocket. Judging by the power of the explosion, it was probably an X-22. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/33189 |
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Posted: 2/15/2024 3:57:55 AM EST
[#48]
 There is indication that Putin tried to freeze the conflict in Ukraine by bypassing the Ukrainian leadership and talk to the US, which understandably rejected the request. Ukraine is an independent nation and is the only one to be addressed, but that is not the real topic. The real topic is that this very move is very revealing. Just like the constant Russian yelling that Ukraine should “surrender already”, it tells us that Russia is not in that shape to have a long war. If they could win this war, they would have done it long ago. They already stopped claiming that they intend to take Ukraine as “careful”as possible, because it wasn’t possible to sell that garbage even to their brain washed audience. They simple cannot succeed. Aside from the military failure, the economy is a far greater concern for Moscow. The Russian economy is basically a war economy which produces zero permanent value. Every destroyed tank, every fired grenade, every sunk ship is equal to a GDP loss. The long-term prognostications for Russia’s economy and future altogether are absolutely grim. While all industries in the world invest in automation, IT, AI, new technologies in general, is Russia caught in retrofitting T-62 and T-55, which after costly deployment get burned the very next month. I doubt that I have to explain too much how much “value” this produces for humankind in the 21st Century. If the Russian economy wants to have even a theoretical chance of survival then it needs this war to be ended right now. What comes on top are the Ukrainian efforts to undermine the Russian energy sector. We saw so far only small efforts to destroy Russian energy ports and infrastructure but it already caused significant losses. Russia can barely repair its current equipment and when it comes to extending their production facilities in the energy sector they are (or better were) completely reliant on Western companies. When Ukrainians succeed in destroying the energy ports, which are sitting ducks, then the blood of Russia’s economy is getting drained. The situation for the Russian work force is dire as well. The Russian “gains” in Ukraine are still minuscule if at all and come at a cost which are beyond any reasonable cost-benefit ratio. Every killed Russian soldier is another loss for the economy. Even the (yet) living Russian soldier is not available for the economy and we haven’t even covered the tens of thousands permanently maimed who will need a lifetime of care. Russia is in a far worse shape than many realize. This war, which was started by Putin, is a Vietnam and Afghanistan on steroids. The Soviet Union, which was 10 times more powerful and had back then far less competition when it comes to industrial capacity, couldn’t survive this kind of grind. I’m sure that almost everyone in Russia’s oligarchy is aware of this fact and behind closed doors is begging for a pause. Therefore, I find the Reuters news plausible. This and the frantic and desperate effort by Russia and its lesser Western minions to stop the military aid package for Ukraine returns a very coherent picture that when the West supports Ukraine in a steady and continuing fashion then we will inevitably reach Russia’s breaking point. This point can be tomorrow, next month, or next year, depending how long Putin can dodge the bullets in his palaces, but the point will eventually come when the Western resolve is steady. Sometimes I read from the detractors that the newest military aid package has “no strategy”, but nothing could be fairer from truth. There is a strategy and just laid it out. The course is clear. Help Ukraine, increase the output of military gear, increase sanctions, close sanction holes and tell Putin that there is no other way for him than to go. And if Vladimir responds with the sentence “only over my dead body” then we shall reply: So be it.
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Posted: 2/15/2024 5:06:58 AM EST
[#49]
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Posted: 2/15/2024 5:29:43 AM EST
[#50]
 The Simpsons - I Asked You Not To Mangle My Merchandise |
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