Lithuania minister of Foreign Affairs pouring it on to wake up the West. In spite of being in NATO the Baltics know they are on the Russian empire  menu after Ukraine and Moldova.

Putin has no intention of stopping. Those who think Minsk 3 would be the end of this war are showing gross naiveté, and that’s me choosing the most polite words I can. The only way to end this war is with Ukraine's outright victory, so we must come together to make that happen. pic.twitter.com/eZj8JKghVy

— Gabrielius Landsbergis\uD83C\uDDF1\uD83C\uDDF9 (@GLandsbergis) February 19, 2024

This is a great example of expanding production and helping rebuild Ukraine economy.

According to a spokesperson of Dynamit Nobel Defense, the company is currently examining the potential co-production of PanzerFaust-3 in Ukraine.

The first step would be to localize final assembly with an eventual goal of complete domestic production.https://t.co/xhjWXqE647

— Jeff2146\uD83C\uDDE7\uD83C\uDDEA (@Jeff21461) February 19, 2024

Admit it, there will be some units rocking Franken-Loafs and Frankenstein-Ladas festooned with these!

Fun fact: Dynamit Nobel is owned by the Israeli defense firm Rafael.

That is excellent digging into the data.

Another point though: We are not shipping “UNSERVICEABLE” ammunition to Ukraine.  We are only shipping SERVICEABLE and WAR RESERVE ONLY to Ukraine.  I won’t go into condition codes and sentencing of ammo.

The USA is still demil’ing UNSERVICEABLE ammunition.

So BOTH costs are being accumulated in the current budget, AND we are NOT re-stocking our WAR RESERVE ONLY of DPICM.  Once gone, its gone forever.

Lacking a STINGER replacement is BAD, lacking even tabletop designs for DPICM is TERRIBLE.

Yes, there is value in killing Russians, and I am FOR THAT, but NOT for depleting OUR National Stockpile without replacing serviceable materials.

That is not correct. You do not understand how ordnance works. If I threw a PG7 at you like a spear would it detonate?

The fuzes are being modified, not just delivery, and in most cases without a safe to arm mechanism. You don't do this because you want to, you do it because you have to. Fuzes have safeties that must be removed to use them in this manner and doing that to graze sensitive or all way acting fuzes is extremely dangerous.

Just because you don't see reports of friendly casualties due to using the munitions in this manner does not mean it does not exist. Bomb techs without borders has prioritized trying to find safer ways to implement modified VP7 fuzes and so far has not found many solutions that don't require just remaking your own fuzing system.

Like I said before, ISIS started out like this and started manufacturing their own systems because it was so hazardous.

Badass!!!  Short round there can low crawl at a full sprint!

Russia-Ukraine War: the paradoxes of Chinese support for Russia
The Rubicon in Morse code

In the Western perception of the conflict in Ukraine, full Chinese logistical support for Russia could be the real “ game changer ” of the war, given the industrial and financial power of the country. This is why Chinese exports are under increased surveillance, from dual-use goods to military equipment. While weak signals are multiplying from China on the camp that the latter has decided to support, the West in the broad sense is not reacting. However, it is on Russia's logistical and financial lines, now directed towards China, that the fate of Ukraine could be decided.

A “measured” Chinese interest in the conflict in Ukraine

“ In the Ukraine War, China Is the Only Winner .” This observation is the title of an article published in May 2023 on the American website National Interest. If the remark does not achieve consensus in Europe, it well summarizes an idea circulating across the Atlantic on the interest that China can derive from the war in Ukraine: between diversion to attract attention and American means on the European front ( far from Taiwan and the South China Sea ), and obtaining raw materials at unbeatable prices, from a Russia that absolutely must find the means to finance its war. For the Atlantic Council , there is indeed talk of an “  economic lifeline  ” between China and Russia since at least 2022.

Even if Russia lost the war, with all the possible consequences for Putin's power, China could seize the opportunity to have a permanently weakened Russia on its borders. Regardless, the deal appears sufficiently profitable regardless of the outcome that China has officially refrained from deterring Russia. Even the “limitless” partnership between China and Russia, announced in early February 2022 on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games, ultimately quickly found limits .

In any case, just after February 24, 2022, China skillfully dodged questions from journalists wanting to know whether it had been warned of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, refusing not only to speak of an “invasion ”, but explaining that Russia did not have to ask for “permission” (which was not the question asked). But China has also visibly taken stock of the extent of Western sanctions against Russia, and unlike its bellicose neighbor, it does not yet seem ready to cut itself off from its main customers and outlets, particularly in the context of a economy that is teetering on its foundations. China also quickly gave certain guarantees to the West: for example, it decided in September 2022 to stop deliveries of truck engines for Kamaz. In August 2023, China also decided to suspend, at least officially, exports of commercial and recreational drones to Russia and Ukraine. But a New York Times investigation seems to indicate that this decision concerns Ukraine much more than Russia. There is apparently a difference between what China says and what China does.

Chinese darting

As the conflict becomes bogged down, considering that the world economy has now adapted to the new energy situation of redistribution of oil and gas flows, China could, without compromising itself with its European clients , maintain “ low profile ” support   for Russia, against the continuation of gas and oil trade at preferential rates. China does not seem opposed to transforming Eastern Europe into a focal point for the meager European forces, but also for part of the American forces.

Indeed, in the hypothesis of a Russian victory or even a simple status quo , similar to that which prevailed from 2014 to 2022, the countries bordering Russia (the Baltic countries, but also Finland or Romania ) would probably require a strengthening of the American presence on their soil, the only guarantee recognized today to dissuade Russia from pushing its possible advantage further. However, anything that is likely to ultimately weaken the American “  pivot  ” towards the Pacific and reduce the volume of American forces towards the Pacific is good for China.

These regional considerations, from the Chinese point of view, remain in any case one of the hypotheses that can explain the increasingly important visibility of trade between China and Russia: 240 billion dollars of goods exchanged in 2023, increasing by 26.3% over one year. Chinese exports to Russia jumped 47% in one year and nearly 65% ​​compared to 2021. Russia would thus have moved from 10th to 6th place among China's economic partners in terms of trade values. between 2022 and 2023. Among these exchanges of oil, cars, smartphones, etc., are there exports that are more problematic with regard to Western sanctions (in which China does not participate)? In July 2023, Politico published, for example, a detailed investigation into possible deliveries of military equipment (helmets and bulletproof vests among others) by Chinese companies to “customers” strongly suspected of coming from Russia. But the reality of trade between China and Russia goes well beyond bulletproof vests.

Electronic components, machine tools…

The subject of possible Chinese munitions supplied to Russia is closely monitored , particularly during "war captures", when Ukrainian troops seize stocks of Russian munitions. There were many doubts, for example, about munitions which, although of Chinese origin, do not appear to have been supplied by China in the context of this conflict. But the United States continues to suspect China , with regular reminders of American vigilance on this subject: “ White House officials said there are 'indications' that China is contemplating supplying Russia with weapons. There is no indication Chinese leaders have decided to arm Russia, but they haven't taken it off the table ” The White House recently spoke out on this subject again. Behind diplomatic politeness, the American media have repeatedly relayed much more explicit analyzes by the American intelligence services. If it is now common knowledge that North Korea supplies Russia with ammunition by the trainload, military aid from China would represent a change of scale , not only because of the stocks it can provide, but also its ability to manufacture them in continuous flows.

Failing to find shells stamped “Made in China”, Ukraine however noted that among the debris of Russian missiles found throughout Ukraine, there were more and more Chinese components in the on-board electronics. Following the December 2023 strikes, the Ukrainians note that almost all of the vectors used were manufactured in the second half of 2023 . The question therefore arises of circumventing sanctions to obtain the components necessary for the manufacture of these missiles, knowing that Russia is not currently capable of manufacturing most of them . However, China has at the same time become in 2023 the leading supplier of numerically controlled machine tools to Russia, equipment essential for the manufacture of many components and spare parts used by the Russian military-industrial complex: according to a report from American intelligence from July 2023, China would directly supply Russian defense manufacturers with essential components and spare parts. Russian imports from China of industrial ball bearings – very important in the manufacturing of vehicles – have, for example, increased significantly since 2022 (+345%), as have those transiting through Kyrgyzstan  (+2,500%). Very recently, soldiers mentioned equipment (apparently tires and tents) supplied by China on videos stamped by the Russian Ministry of Defense .

…and vehicles used on the front

However, it is not in the field of ammunition, electronics or spare parts that the reality of military support from China to Russia has become more tangible, but in that of vehicles. There are recent precedents in this area, since China has openly supplied armored vehicles to Chechnya . Although Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov boasts of equipping national forces deployed in Ukraine with them, the vehicles in question have never been observed on the front. As it stands, this contract, the terms of which are not known, could have been concluded before the outbreak of the invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, the Russian fortifications of the Surovikin line could not have been built as efficiently and quickly without the massive use of Chinese construction equipment , imports of which increased drastically during the months of construction of this defensive obstacle.

Things became even clearer at the beginning of February 2024, when, according to a report from the Russian Defense Ministry, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun explicitly confirmed , during a bilateral meeting, the support of the China to Russia. Please note, however, that this public declaration was not relayed to the Chinese side. Added to these “political” elements is a contract recently signed between Russia and China for Chinese all-terrain military vehicles, halfway between the quad and the golf cart, a contract for which publicity was ensured on the Russian side. by Putin himself in early November 2023. It remained to be seen whether these vehicles participated directly in hostilities. However, not only have these vehicles been deployed on the front , including in armed versions , but they have also clearly already been used ( and lost ) in combat. Although these are light, unarmored and unarmed vehicles in their original version, we are talking about direct military aid: China contributes militarily to the Russian war effort in Ukraine, without this does not arouse the slightest reaction in the West. But these approximately 2,000 light vehicles are in reality insignificant compared to aid that is much more discreet, but probably much more important: loans granted by Chinese banks still present in Russia.

Chinese money helps Russian finances

In late December 2023 , the United States announced upcoming sanctions against foreign banks that allegedly helped finance the war in Ukraine, directly or indirectly. Without access to international financial markets (where interest rates would be prohibitive for Russia due to its disastrous rating), Russia and Russian companies can only borrow on their domestic market. This is why Russia continues to imagine all possible legal obstacles so that the last Western banks present cannot easily disengage from Russia. If certain European banks are in the crosshairs of the United States, such as the Austrian bank Raiffeisein , it is China which is in reality explicitly targeted. Indeed, Chinese loans to Russia have grown considerably in two years. Loans granted by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the Bank of China thus amounted to nearly 9 billion dollars  in Russia between February 2022 and March 2023, compared to 2.2 billion before this date, i.e. four times more.

China is also strongly pushing for the use of the Renminbi in Russia: if before the invasion of Ukraine the share of the Renminbi in export payments represented less than 1%, this has now risen to more than 16%. Within the National Welfare Fund , the Russian “nest egg”, Russia carried out a massive sale of currencies it considers “toxic” – euros, dollars and yen – and has since held the majority of Renminbis as usable liquidity. . Russia is currently in the top 3 of Renminbis users outside China; before March 2022, Russia did not reach the top 15. From September 2022, the two main Russian banks, Sberbank and VTB, denominated part of their loans in Renminbis, with direct connections to Chinese banking networks. . However, in a context of a drastic drop in oil and gas revenues ( -22% in 2023 ), Russia needs cash more than ever to finance the unprecedented increase in its defense and security spending. It nevertheless seems that American pressure is starting to have effects, with China having, for example, very recently announced that it would restrict access to credit for Russian customers by Chinese state banks. It remains to be seen whether the official declarations will be followed by real effects, or whether China, disinclined to act under duress, will not seize the opportunity to strengthen its direct military support, which the minister's recent declarations would suggest. of Chinese Defense.

As Markus Garlauskas, Joseph Webster and Emma C. Verges point out in their article on the Atlantic Council website, as long as China's support for Russia continues, the chances for Ukraine to regain control of its territory will remain limited. It is essential that the various Western governments realize both the extent of this Chinese support, but also understand that Ukraine's victory could depend on our ability and our willingness to lessen this support, both more and more. increasingly important and less and less discreet.

https://lerubicon.org/guerre-russie-ukraine-les-paradoxes-du-soutien-chinois-a-la-russie/

When you beat your swords into plows, you will feed those who kept their swords.

So you’re saying the next Peace Prize goes to…

Houthi tangent.

True!  Being a short guy Audie Murphy survived a lot of battles. I think in his book or an interview he mentioned always moving in a crouch to lower his profile.  Not to take away from his other warrior talents just a small factor.

With all the shooting wars in history one might think dwarves would be the natural selection form factor for survivors. But getting out of those trenches, ugh!

Fantastic article. China benefits from a prolonged, forever war in Ukraine (or across Eastern Europe). A defeated Russia would be a win too but even better for them is a trade hungry Russia and a foot dragging West to get bogged down in years/decade long war across Europe.

Very solid post.

We could have opted not to aid Ukraine, but that would have made Russia greatly stronger globally on virtually every measure - diplomatically, militarily, their resource base, politically. An ascendant Russia would be a bigger problem for the US, and they have publicly declared their intention to disrupt and degrade us at every opportunity.

But not aiding Ukraine would have left the awful paucity of our munition stocks AND production capacity as a hidden risk that most people didn't know of, whereas right now we all know it. We could have stumbled into a conflict in Korea or SCS with bare cupboards and no ability to replenish on a time scale that would make a difference. Ironically, aiding Ukraine has enabled us to take productive actions, if the political leaders can manage it.

And one of Daemon's key questions remains unanswered: what is the desired end state for the US? We can't let Ukraine determine our actions, but if we take ownership then we have to define the goals. The failure to do so is a huge failure for our leaders. It's also tragic, because stating an end goal would provide answers for questions about what we should do, how much, to what extent. The current US policy is to be purely reactive, vague, and noncommittal, which is a recipe for spectacular failure. FJB.

Yeah we should be pushing for negotiations with these depraved barbarians.

Video
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1759650870877159548

RUSSIAN WAR CRIME 🔞
Another case of execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war by russian occupiers.
It is clearly visible that the Defenders didn’t pose any threat to the orкs, but the invaders don’t care. Maximum repost of this video.

The gram was definitely worse

We bought it to kill Russians in Europe.
We stored it to kill Russians in Europe.

Which option will kill more Russians?  
A. Ship it to Ukraine.
B. Demil it here.

Which is a bigger waste of money?
A. Use it to kill Russians in Europe.
B. Demil it here.

What will save more American lives?
A. Ship it to Ukraine and let them kill Russians now.
B. Ship it and Americans to a NATO country after Article 5 has been invoked to kill Russians and possibly Ukrainians a few years from now.

Clueless outsider question: are munitions designated 'unserviceable' truly unusable, or are they just out of date so that the dud rate goes up? I'm imagining something like medications or canned food, where the 'use by' date is completely irrelevant to the actual usability of them in 95% of cases, and that date can safely be ignored. If it's like I think, where the US Government always errs generously on the side of being cautious to a fault, would quantities of munitions designated 'unserviceable' be actually viable for Ukraine to use if they could be shipped over?

LOL at the status of DPICM and some replacement. Not at you or statements/claims like that, but at the idiocy of US leadership and policy. It seems there is no limit to how dumb US political leaders (including DOD) can be. I can't say when the US peaked as a nation, but we're well past it.

[Deleted]

Since we're on the subject of rosy projections for localization of defense manufacturing in Ukraine.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraine_plans_to_purchase_turkish_fifth_generation_kaan_fighter_jets-9530.html#

Standard 5590 battery used for everything from CLUs to TOWs to PRCs....

If this were to materialize before the end of active hostilities in the region, and they are as good as the Turks claim they will be (doubt), Russia will have serious problems.

All of these things being giant what ifs... and very unlikely.

Could be a good long term direction for them. Doubt it is anywhere near as capable as F22 or F35, but probably light years better than Su-57 and any other RuAF aircraft.

I’ve not heard of export restrictions from Turkey at the insane level US and Germany apply. True? Probably much cheaper than F35. Closer manufacturer repair facilities. Also being from Turkey it likely has a good level of weapons and network integration with NATO systems.

Isn’t the UK also participating in its development?

Cautiously anxious

We might have a breakthrough regarding the TAURUS missile.

The government parties agreed to send the motion for a parliament voting on a new military aid package containing “long range weapons”. The word “TAURUS” is not mentioned but it is obviously the core of that new military…

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 19, 2024

it is obviously the core of that new military aid package. Voting should take place this week.

Reason for this change of heart is Navalny’s murder. Even members of the SPD are appalled and now ready to support the bill, in order to send a message to Putin.

The motion is also a concession to TAURUS supporters in the government parties who threatened to bring in their own notion, further straining the government coalition.


With all the atrocities Russia has committed, it is strange that a patriotic Russian nationalist/imperialist critic is the cause of so much Western outrage. But I guess whatever works!

#Budapest will not block the 13th package of sanctions against #Russia, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has said

According to him, such a decision was taken due to the fact that at the stage of preparation it was possible to remove all items contrary to Hungarian… pic.twitter.com/3meb9ByjOd

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 19, 2024

These were passed out to all EU members attending…

[Deleted]

Follow up to  the comments about Russians still not keeping intervals. Just a single anecdote but interesting

One of the funniest stories I ever heard from the GWOT was a Marine went on a joint patrol with Army, and the Army unit's patrol spacing was like 5 yards compared to the Marines 20.  

Soldiers kept crowding up on the Marines, and Marines kept booking it to maintain spacing.

WeaponOutfitters.com  (@WeaponOutfitter) February 19, 2024

Inspection of abandoned RF T-72B3 tanks. The tank under inspection has signs of Kontact-5 ERA working con hull glacis - 2 sections have been triggered, welds between neighboring sections are destroyed. Otherwise, it looks fully operational except for minor damage. No signs of… pic.twitter.com/M6k3aDeFwE

Andrei_bt  (@AndreiBtvt) February 11, 2024

Saving Christianity ?

Mercenaries from the elite Iranian military-political formation "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" are fighting on the side of the Russian Federation in Donbas. #RussiaisATerroistState pic.twitter.com/B1ewzq5yCe

TOGA  (@TOGAjano21) February 19, 2024

Obama's "leading from behind" policy being implemented by a man "who has been wrong about every major foreign policy issue in the last 50 years".  What could possibly go wrong!

I announced today that Canada is sending over 800 SkyRanger R70 multi-mission Unmanned Aerial Systems to Ukraine.

These drones, valued at over $95 million, will help Ukraine as it fights bravely to defend itself from Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion. \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 pic.twitter.com/rYRx25a5d1

Bill Blair  (@BillBlair) February 19, 2024

The more than 800 drones, sourced from Teledyne FLIR in Waterloo, Ontario, have automated and autonomous navigation systems, enabling them to carry various camera systems and payloads. This multi-rotor drone is one of the best of its kind in the world.

Bill Blair  (@BillBlair) February 19, 2024

News release
February 19, 2024 – Toronto, Ontario – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

Today, the Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, announced that Canada will donate more than 800 SkyRanger R70 multi-mission Unmanned Aerial Systems to Ukraine.

These drones, valued at over $95 million, will help Ukraine as it fights bravely to defend itself amongst Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable full-scale invasion. Minister Blair was joined for this announcement by James Maloney, Member of Parliament for Etobicoke-Lakeshore; Yvan Baker, Member of Parliament for Etobicoke Centre; representatives of Teledyne; and Ukrainian-Canadian community leaders.

The more than 800 drones, sourced from Teledyne FLIR in Waterloo, Ontario, have automated and autonomous navigation systems, enabling them to carry various camera systems and payloads to detect and identify targets. These capabilities will help Ukrainian operators to recognize individuals, vehicles and any heat source from a long distance, especially in dark conditions and poor weather. This multi-rotor drone is one of the best of its kind in the world, and can handle a variety of payloads up to 3.5 kilograms, including munitions.

These drones are critical for surveillance and intelligence gathering, and can also be used to transport and deliver supplies. Canada is working with Ukraine on a training plan and delivery schedule, with delivery expected to begin this spring.

As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, these drones will address some of Ukraine’s most urgent defensive needs. Drones have emerged as a critical capability in Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression. With these drones, Ukrainian troops will be able to gather more situational awareness and information, so that they can assess targets more quickly, and more accurately.

This donation is funded by the $500 million in military assistance for Ukraine announced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during his visit to Kyiv in June 2023. This donation will complement the over 100 high-resolution drone cameras sourced from L3 Wescam that Canada previously donated to Ukraine.

Today’s donation is part of Canada’s comprehensive military assistance to Ukraine. Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $2.4 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. This includes Leopard 2 main battle tanks, armoured combat support vehicles, anti-tank weapons, small arms, M777 howitzers and associated ammunition, high-resolution drone cameras, winter clothing, and more.

The donation also follows last week’s 19th Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, where Minister Blair announced that Canada will make a new contribution of $60 million to the UDCG Air Force Capability Coalition. This donation will support the setup of a sustainable F-16 fighter aircraft capability in Ukraine. Specifically, the funds will help source vitally needed F-16 supplies and equipment such as spare parts, weapons stations, avionics, and ammunition. Canada is also contributing to multinational efforts to train Ukrainian pilots.

At last week’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, NATO Defence Ministerial, and Munich Security Conference, Minister Blair pledged that Canada will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes – and reaffirmed this commitment today.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2024/02/defence-minister-bill-blair-announces-canadian-donation-of-over-800-drones-to-ukraine.html