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Posted: 12/28/2022 3:40:36 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They are fun to watch. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The Lions started 1-6 and not only could they potentially be playing a de facto playoff game in week 18, but they would be a pick 'em on a neutral field vs the Packers with Rodgers starting. Most. Bizarre. Season. Ever. Sucks the lions lost last weekend. They are fun to watch. I hope the Lions make the postseason. If they do they'll likely play a team they beat by 11 points in the Wild Card and if they win that then in the Divisional they'll likely play a team that needed a pick 6 to beat them by 3 points and that was back when the Lions sucked. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 3:47:26 PM EDT
[#2]
That +700 value bet on Bosa winning DPOY back in November looks like it will pay off.
 Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 3:53:55 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Too bad he wasn’t hitting the opponent’s D-line like he shoved his backup QB. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This get posted yet?
Too bad he wasn’t hitting the opponent’s D-line like he shoved his backup QB.  Attached File |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:04:37 PM EDT
[#4]
Decided to go back in time and check the numbers myself. The largest number of incompletions when targeting a single receiver, in any single season since 2000, is Chris Chambers (MIA) in 2006. There were 95 incompletions. He had just a 38% catch rate. Other highlights (or lowlights): Amani Toomer with 89 incompletions in 2004. Eli's rookie season. Plaxico Burress with 90 incompletions in 2005. Eli's 2nd season. Reggie Wayne with 89 incompletions in 2012. Andrew Luck's rookie season. Edit: For Winston in the Tweet, that was his 2nd season. His rookie season he had 72 incompletions when targeting Evans. Basically, Derek Carr is currently being compared to Eli Manning, Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston's rookie and sophomore seasons in the NFL. You don't want that. That's a bad comparison to be associated with. 
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:09:50 PM EDT
[#5]
Is Vegas in the market for Rodgers? What kinda draft capital do they have left to give up? We'll take Waller, a 1st and 2d please.
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:14:32 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is Vegas in the market for Rodgers? What kinda draft capital do they have left to give up? We'll take Waller, a 1st and 2d please.  |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:18:14 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That +700 value bet on Bosa winning DPOY back in November looks like it will pay off. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/FF2EA7DC-E234-4DD2-B24A-FDBE108417FC_jpe-2651983.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/31AAF7E0-3EDB-4DEC-A07C-5BA5BD1C12C2_jpe-2651985.JPG You are like rainman when it comes to gambling. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:19:30 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is Vegas in the market for Rodgers? What kinda draft capital do they have left to give up? We'll take Waller, a 1st and 2d please. This offseason if the Packers would've traded Rodgers to the Broncos (like the Broncos wanted) they could've gotten multiple first rounders and probably multiple second rounders too. Rodgers turns 40 next season and will likely be coming off the worst season of his career. I'm afraid that ship has sailed. 
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:21:53 PM EDT
[#9]
Quoted: You think Rodgers still has high end draft value? With his boat anchor contract and performance this season? https://media1.tenor.com/images/921ac349f8c6c924b119fdb17bdeadd3/tenor.gif?itemid=15240488 Quoted: This offseason if the Packers would've traded Rodgers to the Broncos (like the Broncos wanted) they could've gotten multiple first rounders and probably multiple second rounders too. Rodgers turns 40 next season and will likely be coming off the worst season of his career. I'm afraid that ship has sailed. They have a chance to put Rodgers and Davante back together. And a really dumb head coach and owner. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:31:06 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You are like rainman when it comes to gambling. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That +700 value bet on Bosa winning DPOY back in November looks like it will pay off. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/FF2EA7DC-E234-4DD2-B24A-FDBE108417FC_jpe-2651983.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/31AAF7E0-3EDB-4DEC-A07C-5BA5BD1C12C2_jpe-2651985.JPG You are like rainman when it comes to gambling. This is shaping up to be my most profitable NFL season ever in large part due to value bets. Chalk it up to me taking advantage of the wackiest and most unpredictable NFL season ever. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:35:07 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is shaping up to be my most profitable NFL season ever in large part due to value bets. Chalk it up to me taking advantage of the wackiest and most unpredictable NFL season ever.  Spend it in good health. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:36:57 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is Vegas in the market for Rodgers? What kinda draft capital do they have left to give up? We'll take Waller, a 1st and 2d please. 
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:40:18 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They have a chance to put Rodgers and Davante back together. And a really dumb head coach and owner. The only way Rodgers is getting traded at this point is if the Packers throw in pick(s) with him to offset eating his cap hit. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:46:48 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The only way Rodgers is getting traded at this point is if the Packers throw in pick(s) with him to offset eating his cap hit. He's still worth something. Packers management have made some nice personnel pickups and draft moves. I hope they aren't considering trading Love. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:53:37 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The only way Rodgers is getting traded at this point is if the Packers throw in pick(s) with him to offset eating his cap hit. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 4:57:16 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He's still worth something. Packers management have made some nice personnel pickups and draft moves. I hope they aren't considering trading Love. What Happens if the Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers? Rodgers does not have a no trade clause in his contract so he could be traded to a team as well. The timing of the option should give the Packers all the way until the end of training camp to move him. The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. This assumes that the Packers did not exercise the option before the trade. If the option is exercised then the trade number spikes to nearly $100 million. There should be no need to exercise the option until the last possible day. For the team acquiring Rodgers they would be on the hook for the salary for the year. The cap charge would be $59,515,000 if they do not exercise his option and $15.79 million if they were to exercise the option. Rodgers has an injury guarantee of $49.25 million for 2024 but that does not become fully guaranteed until 5 days after the 2023 Super Bowl. If Rodgers was cut after 2023 it would cost the team $43.725 million on the 2024 cap. If he retired they could split that as $14.575 million in 2024 and $29.15 million in 2025 using a similar June 2nd date as mentioned above in the retirement option. So what is exactly is a 40 YO QB having the worst season of his career worth with that considered? |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 5:16:51 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Is Vegas in the market for Rodgers? What kinda draft capital do they have left to give up? We'll take Waller, a 1st and 2d please. McDaniels will want Jimmy G if SF still wants to sell him. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 5:28:25 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: McDaniels will want Jimmy G if SF still wants to sell him. I think? Jimmy G signed a 1 year contract with San Francisco last offseason, and at the end of this season becomes an unrestricted free agent. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 6:30:08 PM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 12/28/2022 6:36:28 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Soooo many teams needing QBs next year. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 7:16:07 PM EDT
[#21]
So Wentz is the starter for the Skins/Football team/commanders for Sunday's game.
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Posted: 12/28/2022 7:40:10 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You are like rainman when it comes to gambling. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That +700 value bet on Bosa winning DPOY back in November looks like it will pay off. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/FF2EA7DC-E234-4DD2-B24A-FDBE108417FC_jpe-2651983.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/31AAF7E0-3EDB-4DEC-A07C-5BA5BD1C12C2_jpe-2651985.JPG You are like rainman when it comes to gambling. Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 7:43:57 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 8:51:40 PM EDT
[#24]
I was looking at long shot Super Bowl bets and was giving the Packers some consideration at 50/1. First thing I had to determine was the likelihood they even make the postseason.
I kept seeing people talk about how the Packers control their own destiny, but looking at the standings that didn’t seem right to me. So I ran the numbers and, yup, it’s wrong. They do NOT control their destiny. I’m not sure where people are getting that they do.   Attached File |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 9:08:54 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I was looking at long shot Super Bowl bets and was giving the Packers some consideration at 50/1. First thing I had to determine was the likelihood they even make the postseason. I kept seeing people talk about how the Packers control their own destiny, but looking at the standings that didn't seem right to me. So I ran the numbers and, yup, it's wrong. They do NOT control their destiny. I'm not sure where people are getting that they do. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/1C5B59C1-70E5-4EB9-8E55-75191FADEC25_jpe-2652334.JPG They need the Commanders to drop 1 game between the Browns or Cowboys, or for the Giants to lose two. ETA- they also need to win 2. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 9:18:55 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They need the Commanders to drop 1 game between the Browns or Cowboys, or for the Giants to lose two. ETA- they also need to win 2. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I was looking at long shot Super Bowl bets and was giving the Packers some consideration at 50/1. First thing I had to determine was the likelihood they even make the postseason. I kept seeing people talk about how the Packers control their own destiny, but looking at the standings that didn't seem right to me. So I ran the numbers and, yup, it's wrong. They do NOT control their destiny. I'm not sure where people are getting that they do. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/1C5B59C1-70E5-4EB9-8E55-75191FADEC25_jpe-2652334.JPG They need the Commanders to drop 1 game between the Browns or Cowboys, or for the Giants to lose two. ETA- they also need to win 2. If the Packers do make the postseason it is likely they’ll be @49ers for the Wild Card and if they win that they’ll be @Eagles for the Divisonal. Godspeed. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 9:50:41 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If the Packers do make the postseason it is likely they’ll be @49ers for the Wild Card and if they win that they’ll be @Eagles for the Divisonal. Godspeed. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: I was looking at long shot Super Bowl bets and was giving the Packers some consideration at 50/1. First thing I had to determine was the likelihood they even make the postseason. I kept seeing people talk about how the Packers control their own destiny, but looking at the standings that didn't seem right to me. So I ran the numbers and, yup, it's wrong. They do NOT control their destiny. I'm not sure where people are getting that they do. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/1C5B59C1-70E5-4EB9-8E55-75191FADEC25_jpe-2652334.JPG They need the Commanders to drop 1 game between the Browns or Cowboys, or for the Giants to lose two. ETA- they also need to win 2. If the Packers do make the postseason it is likely they’ll be @49ers for the Wild Card and if they win that they’ll be @Eagles for the Divisonal. Godspeed. 49ers knocked them out last year, I remember watching that game. Opened up with Rodgers driving them right down the field for a touchdown then they couldn't do shit the rest of the game. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 10:13:45 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @Bennjammin “Where I’m from dey empty da clip.” Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted:
WAT @Bennjammin “Where I’m from dey empty da clip.” dez better watch his back.  what an odd signing. I know Norman was ring chasing for a bit, but panthers practice squad!? 
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Posted: 12/28/2022 10:25:08 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They need the Commanders to drop 1 game between the Browns or Cowboys, or for the Giants to lose two. ETA- they also need to win 2. Oh yea, the commies are also starting Wentz. |
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Posted: 12/28/2022 10:56:53 PM EDT
[#30]
Carr had the 2nd longest consecutive start streak among active QBs. And with Brady likely retiring, Carr was set to have the longest streak with no one else even close.
Hell of a way for the streak to end.   Attached File |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:42:17 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s easy to rip on Carr, but not many QBs are going to be able to win with this: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/258158/57F3170D-CAA8-4232-B7B5-61D0A7BF31A9_jpe-2651964.JPG That doesn't help, but in 9 seasons, Carr only had two with a QBR of 60+, and he never broke 65. The flip side is, he only had 3 seasons with a QBR below 50, and two of those were his first two seasons in the league. He's a reliable starter quality QB with limited upside, but he falls apart in cold weather. All four NFC South teams and 3 of 4 AFC South teams should be reaching out to Vegas after the Super Bowl to see what they want for him. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:44:41 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:45:48 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. You're probably right.
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:50:40 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. The Super Bowl is the biggest favorite from the AFC vs the 2nd biggest favorite from the NFC? FAR too normal an ending to this season. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:51:10 AM EDT
[#35]
The Cowboys, after everyone and their mother said their season was over after week 1, winning the Super Bowl seems like a far more appropriate end to the wackiest and most unpredictable season in NFL history.
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Posted: 12/29/2022 6:19:53 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Cowboys, after everyone and their mother said their season was over after week 1, winning the Super Bowl seems like a far more appropriate end to the wackiest and most unpredictable season in NFL history. Think of the blood that would boil here throughout the playoffs. 
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Posted: 12/29/2022 10:50:06 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Super Bowl is the biggest favorite from the AFC vs the 2nd biggest favorite from the NFC? FAR too normal an ending to this season. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. The Super Bowl is the biggest favorite from the AFC vs the 2nd biggest favorite from the NFC? FAR too normal an ending to this season. The issue here is that the 9'ers are the 2nd biggest favorite in the NFC despite going into the playoffs with either a rando 7th round rookie QB or an injured Jimmy G. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 11:34:16 AM EDT
[#38]
If the cowboys win the superbowl... I will be single again....
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:08:10 PM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:24:45 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Cowboys, after everyone and their mother said their season was over after week 1, winning the Super Bowl seems like a far more appropriate end to the wackiest and most unpredictable season in NFL history. I’m down for them in the super bowl to watch the world burn. Then we can argue if Dak is elite or not. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:28:27 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The issue here is that the 9'ers are the 2nd biggest favorite in the NFC despite going into the playoffs with either a rando 7th round rookie QB or an injured Jimmy G. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. The Super Bowl is the biggest favorite from the AFC vs the 2nd biggest favorite from the NFC? FAR too normal an ending to this season. The issue here is that the 9'ers are the 2nd biggest favorite in the NFC despite going into the playoffs with either a rando 7th round rookie QB or an injured Jimmy G. That still sounds kind of normal. How bout Jags Vs Panthers in the SuperBowl? |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:35:56 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How bout Jags Vs Panthers in the SuperBowl?  |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:36:29 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That still sounds kind of normal. How bout Jags Vs Panthers in the SuperBowl?  Attached File |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:40:43 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryYes. That's why it would happen this year. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 12:41:18 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That still sounds kind of normal. How bout Jags Vs Panthers in the SuperBowl? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Bets against his home town team. That is WRONG TO DO. WRONG I SAY. Arfcom has the unique aspect of being realistic about how good or bad their team is. HK just takes advantage of this and the fact that yhe Coeboys are almost always overrated. I think pretty much all of the regulars think their team won't make it because of a huge flaw or set of flaws. As opposed to everywhere else where everyone thinks their team is going to the SuperBowl. With the trajectory of this season, I'm fully prepared for a year that ends with the Bills losing the Super Bowl to a 49ers team lead by a QB nobody heard of a month ago. Because that's the direction this thing seems to be going. The Super Bowl is the biggest favorite from the AFC vs the 2nd biggest favorite from the NFC? FAR too normal an ending to this season. The issue here is that the 9'ers are the 2nd biggest favorite in the NFC despite going into the playoffs with either a rando 7th round rookie QB or an injured Jimmy G. That still sounds kind of normal. How bout Jags Vs Panthers in the SuperBowl?  Attached File |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 1:36:25 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Cowboys, after everyone and their mother said their season was over after week 1, winning the Super Bowl seems like a far more appropriate end to the wackiest and most unpredictable season in NFL history.  Attached File |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 1:44:24 PM EDT
[#47]
For a better comparison I ran the number of games played and sacks per game for each: Wilson: 169 games, 2.8 sacks per game Ryan: 156 games, 2.6 sacks per game Tannehill: 134 games, 2.9 sacks per game Stafford: 152 games, 2.5 sacks per game And for shits and giggles: Rodgers: 156 games, 349 sacks, 2.2 sacks per game Cousins: 140 games, 296 sacks, 2.1 sacks per game Brady: 179 games, 298 sacks, 1.7 sacks per game |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 1:52:09 PM EDT
[#48]
Oh thank fucking god. Bears CEO/President, of the last 39 years, Ted Phillips is retiring. Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren is an early top candidate for the job.
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Posted: 12/29/2022 2:01:16 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
For a better comparison I ran the number of games played and sacks per game for each: Wilson: 169 games, 2.8 sacks per game Ryan: 156 games, 2.6 sacks per game Tannehill: 134 games, 2.9 sacks per game Stafford: 152 games, 2.5 sacks per game And for shits and giggles: Rodgers: 156 games, 349 sacks, 2.2 sacks per game Cousins: 140 games, 296 sacks, 2.1 sacks per game Brady: 179 games, 298 sacks, 1.7 sacks per game Now compare those to how long each holds the ball. |
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Posted: 12/29/2022 2:03:29 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh thank fucking god. Bears CEO/President, of the last 39 years, Ted Phillips is retiring. Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren is an early top candidate for the job. Lol, my kid was on a Zoom call with Warren the other day. |
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