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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 5:38:01 AM EDT
[#1]
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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 5:44:28 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 5:44:57 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: If they choose, no one can stop them. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: 4. Caspian Sea. Again, subject to veto by Turkey or via airpower. Turkey has a veto in the Caspian Sea??  If they choose, no one can stop them. Are you confusing the Black Sea with the Caspian Sea? |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 6:04:19 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Are you confusing the Black Sea with the Caspian Sea? No. Go look at a map and measure the distance from eastern Turkey to the Caspian. It’s rough terrain but it can be done. The real conversation is, what do you do to get them to do this? Couple of options but the one I like is telling them if they don’t, America creates Kurdistan and they do it. Guess which ethnic groups live in NW Iran? Kurds and Azeris. Not even Persians. And the Turks and Azeris get along really well right now. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 6:40:39 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: We know that the administration doesn't want to see Russia defeated. But they can't be seen as hanging Ukraine out for the vultures. Feeding them enough to keep from losing is costing a LOT of stuff, especially expensive and hard to replace stuff like PAC interceptors. Even the dumb stuff like artillery is adversely affecting our readiness, which compounds over time as training keeps getting deferred and deferred. The administration is really in between a rock and a hard place with no good options. And Putin put them there. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: I bet none of them want to allow ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. I bet someone in the Pentagon or Intel community said we need to allow Ukraine to end this and that the US does not an infinite supply of arms to give away. Reality is starting to hit hopefully. We know that the administration doesn't want to see Russia defeated. But they can't be seen as hanging Ukraine out for the vultures. Feeding them enough to keep from losing is costing a LOT of stuff, especially expensive and hard to replace stuff like PAC interceptors. Even the dumb stuff like artillery is adversely affecting our readiness, which compounds over time as training keeps getting deferred and deferred. The administration is really in between a rock and a hard place with no good options. And Putin put them there. The administration put themselves there by failing to have a plan / end goal and just being reactive. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 6:44:11 AM EDT
[#6]
A huge crater was discovered in a field near a gas distribution station in the Tula region. Preliminary, a Ukrainian S-200 missile could have fallen there.
According to Baza, local residents initially reported to emergency services about a loud "bang" that they heard around 5 a.m. in the Yefremovsky district of the region. A few hours later, during a patrol in the field, a crater with a diameter of about 50 meters was discovered. According to one version, a missile (presumably an S-200) could have fallen there, but this information has not been officially confirmed. Emergency services and sappers are currently working on the scene. https://t.me/bazabazon/31148 |
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MD, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 6:51:05 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: If they start a mobilization required conflict at the same time as Korea we are fucked. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: If they start a mobilization required conflict at the same time as Korea we are fucked. Not really. Best Korea has been procuring and designing it's forces for the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy since at least 2016 in public. The moment Fat Kim does something? in the words of a South Korean official: Every Pyongyang district, particularly where the North Korean leadership is possibly hidden, will be completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells as soon as the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon. In other words, the North’s capital city will be reduced to ashes and removed from the map. And South Korea actually does have the munitions stockpiles in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, etc to make a good go of all the regime locations in Pyongyang to make that come true -- South Korea isn't the weak 1980s/1990s country that can only produce K1s with help from GDLS anymore. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/south-koreas-impressive-force-of-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles/ (snip long list of South Korean tech) "National Defence Minister Shin Won-sik embellished that policy [Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation] in October with one of his own called ‘Punish Immediately, Strongly and Until the End.’ ... ‘If the enemy carries out military provocations, first, punish them immediately; second, punish them strongly; third, punish them until the very end,’ he said. |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 6:52:15 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By iggy1337: There's a issue that's often left out in GD. For instance NL cannot just start making it's own nukes due to agreements with America, America controls the nukes that are (not confirmed or denied, nudge nudge wink wink) stationed here. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By iggy1337: Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Europe is pretty squeamish on nukes, I doubt they’d be okay with that. Plus the European public would probably have a meltdown if Israel used nukes.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SbNC3fK7Ig https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47xjob-IL8oThat’s why you make that agreement early when everyone can say it wasn’t considered possible then that we would actually have to do it. It was just a threat. Then they backed us into a corner. Now they only idiots and true believers pretend that Iran isn’t seeking the bomb it’s too late. There's a issue that's often left out in GD. For instance NL cannot just start making it's own nukes due to agreements with America, America controls the nukes that are (not confirmed or denied, nudge nudge wink wink) stationed here. Didn't we pull them when Soesterberg was closed down? What actually US bases are left in NL? Coeverden is long gone. Is there anything left? |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:10:48 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: I think that, realistically speaking, a true world war entailing Iran, North Korea, and China all going hot at once is going to also entail nuclear usage. Quite a bit of it, in fact. At that point, I think discussions regarding things like supply of GMLRS and 155mm are going to be irrelevant. I've argued for going on a decade at this point that the vision of all out conflict between nuclear armed great powers that somehow doesn't involve nuclear use is pure fantasy. This is also why most of the wars the US military has actually fought since WW2 have been small wars. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Originally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Iran is the least concerning of the four enemy powers involved. It’s isolated and under the right political circumstances turning the key and taking them off the board is politically palatable. If the Middle East can’t produce oil in the aftermath and Russia can’t deliver it the US controls most of the POL in the world as well as most of the available food. I don’t see a leadership class that is willing to take actions for Americas benefit that results in them not being able to vacation abroad, however. If they attack Israel and KSA we are going to war, which we are absolutely not ready for past sitting in the gulf wasting missiles indefinitely. It's almost as if we are already doing that at Iran's behest, running down the meter on the exact things we need to counter China. They are not 4 separate problems, they are four sides to one problem. The world looking at this through the wrong lense, as you are now, is how we got so deep into the hole they already started digging. I think that, realistically speaking, a true world war entailing Iran, North Korea, and China all going hot at once is going to also entail nuclear usage. Quite a bit of it, in fact. At that point, I think discussions regarding things like supply of GMLRS and 155mm are going to be irrelevant. I've argued for going on a decade at this point that the vision of all out conflict between nuclear armed great powers that somehow doesn't involve nuclear use is pure fantasy. This is also why most of the wars the US military has actually fought since WW2 have been small wars. I see North Korea as the least interested in changing the status quo / actually deciding to pop pmags. Russia, China, Iran all have something to gain. I just dont think NK has anything to gain, and is probably comfortable with the status quo (things are actually going pretty well for them now that they are exporting weapons to Russia.) |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:19:09 AM EDT
[#10]
President Erdoğan sent a video message to the Fourth Crimea Platform Leaders Summit
President Erdoğan: "I believe that additional steps will continue to be taken to strengthen the rights of Crimean Tatar Turks in the coming period."
President Erdoğan: "Our support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence is permanent. The return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law."
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:25:01 AM EDT
[#11]
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم 🇵🇸
>>> TARGET - UKRAINE ❌ NATIONAL AGENCY OF UKRAINE FOR CIVIL SERVICES https://check-host.net/check-report/1e22a27ak1bb >>> SITE :- https://nads.gov.ua/ >>> BY - ٱلْ أَحَد FOR FREEDOM AND HUMANITY ❤️🩹 For Russia! 🇷🇺 For Kursk! ❤️ For Belgorod! ❤️ For Donbass! ❤️ https://t.me/AlAhadSecurity/1522 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:28:02 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Murmansk airport is closed. According to SHOT, flights are temporarily restricted due to the threat of a drone attack The airport has not been accepting flights since 9:30. Several flights from Arkhangelsk are delayed. UPD: temporary flight restrictions have also been introduced at Apatity airport. https://t.me/shot_shot/71391 Two Ukrainian UAVs were shot down in the Murmansk region near the village of Vysoky. Preliminary, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to attack the Olenya airfield with A-22 Flying Fox type UAVs. Against this background, the authorities introduced temporary restrictions on the operation of the Murmansk airport. The air harbor is temporarily not accepting or sending flights. UPD. The airport in Apatity has also been temporarily closed. https://t.me/mash/57514 Three drones have been preliminarily destroyed in the Murmansk region. Now all airports in the region — in Murmansk and Apatity — have suspended flights Enemy UAV raids are being carried out on the Murmansk region, the governor said. Air defense is working to destroy them, and necessary measures are being taken to improve security. https://t.me/shot_shot/71398 One of the UAVs spotted in the Murmansk region was flying from Norway. According to SHOT, it was spotted around 11:00. Preliminary, it was flying towards the Olenya airfield. Two and a half hours before that, two more UAVs were spotted in the sky over the Murmansk region, flying from the Arkhangelsk region. The air defense system was working on them. https://t.me/shot_shot/71399 0602ET ✈️ 5x Tu-95MS are in the air from the "Olenya" airfield. The course is south. Redeployment to "Engels" airfield is taking place. https://t.me/eRadarrua/23441
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:32:35 AM EDT
[#13]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:36:35 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#14]
    
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:44:55 AM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 7:52:55 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: I remember when the F-35 was first announced and people who supposedly knew what they were talking about were crapping all over it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Go Japan.
This short video is from 11 years ago. It shows an F-35 automatically picking up enemy fire AA, rockets and artillery guns and classifying and locating targets for quick destruction by other units, or the F-35 itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHZO0T5mDYUI briefly talked to a Dutch pilot here in Vegas to train on the F35: "I dont want to ask any secret stuff, but is the F35 as cool as they say?" "It's even cooler" - he said with an enthusiastic grin. I didn't do it on arfcom, but I admit that I did crap on the F-35 because of the MASSIVE budget drain it was during the R&D/prototype/test phases...the project went over budget every single year of its development, IIRC. Now, I am glad to see that it has proven to be an immensely valuable warfighting tool- and am convinced that it was worth every penny...and a lot of other buying countries apparently agree! |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:02:06 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Not really. Best Korea has been procuring and designing it's forces for the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy since at least 2016 in public. The moment Fat Kim does something? in the words of a South Korean official: And South Korea actually does have the munitions stockpiles in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, etc to make a good go of all the regime locations in Pyongyang to make that come true -- South Korea isn't the weak 1980s/1990s country that can only produce K1s with help from GDLS anymore. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/south-koreas-impressive-force-of-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles/ (snip long list of South Korean tech) That's not how any of that works. Not remotely, even in the slightest. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:03:17 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:07:05 AM EDT
[#19]
 The Belarusian "Ministry of Defense" said that the mobile game Pokemon Go, which was popular almost 10 years ago, is a tool of Western intelligence "Where was the most Pokemons at that time, do you think? On the territory of the 50th air base near Minsk, where the runway is, where there is a pile of military aircraft equipment, the most Pokemons were there. Isn't this intelligence information?" - said the head of the department of ideological work of the "Ministry of Defense," Alexander Ivanov, on air on the state channel. It's unknown how the chief ideologist of the "Ministry of Defense" knows the place with the most Pokemons in Belarus, but, according to him, there was possible to find "the rarest Pokemon for your collection".  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:08:07 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: Israel’s only realistic option to destroy the nuclear facilities is the hammer them with Jericho 3 missiles. But nuking a country might piss a few people off but I say they should go for it. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:08:56 AM EDT
[#21]
interesting |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:11:15 AM EDT
[#22]
 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:15:30 AM EDT
[#23]
⚡️ Two schoolchildren burned down a russian Mi-8 helicopter at the airport in Noyabrsk, Tyumen region, russia, — according to local media.
The arsonists, aged 13 and 14, were given the task via Telegram and promised 5 million rubles ($54,700). They doused the helicopter with a flammable substance, lit a cigarette and threw it at the helicopter, after which it exploded and eventually burned down. The boys suffered severe burns and sought medical attention. They then confessed to law enforcement that they had also set fire to a mobile phone tower shortly before, for which they received 30,000 rubles ($328). 
https://t.me/bazabazon/31136 https://t.me/bazabazon/31137 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:17:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#24]
Wow, that is long range.
AIM-260 is over 120 miles. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:17:39 AM EDT
[#25]
~15 sec video.
  working on a longer post on RU counter actions within the western flank of Kursk soon. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:26:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#26]
  
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:29:26 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: Since you're here, am I correct in my assumption that the west's actions to limit Ukrainian long range strike capability are at least partially motivated by concerns about Russia achieving more assistance from Iran and China? I also suspect part of it is has been to maintain some escalatory tools in response to Russian action elsewhere, such as arming the Houthis or Hezbollah. Is there at least some truth to that, that you can disclose on an open forum? I'm sure this is SOP for managing escalation but it guarantees the opposite. Giving the enemy time gives him options. Russia has found those options in China, N. Korea, Iran and who knows where else. Had the US given maximum effort (sending 3%) in 2022 (or before) could likely have helped Ukraine push them out far enough and beaten bad enough that both sides felt it was a good time to stop the fucking war. Instead, at every turn, Russia received the message that pushing a just a little more, a little harder, will get the desired result. My LEO analogy is controlling a suspect and detaining him/her early in the contact .vs allowing them freedom to roam around, dig under the front seat, open the trunk, etc. and creating a situation where YOU MUST use lethal force. If you MUST fight or oppose someone, do it at max effort because they will see hesitation as weakness NOT as escalation management and they will try you. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:41:51 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By voyager3: Why is the current situation preferable to Russia's allies having to step up their assistance? And what's there to prevent them from stepping up anytime they want besides it not being necessary right now? It's hard for me to follow the logic of "if we help Ukraine more/ remove restrictions then the Axis will help the orcs more, then Ukraine will be toast". The corollary seems to be that the Western lackluster support is what prevents Ukraine defeat which seems to be self-contradictory. EXACTLY!! This idiotic escalation management bullshit just ensures that Ukraine (and the West) are always one step behind Russia and reacting. To win, Ukraine has to jump ahead of Russia's escalation ladder! Until that happens we are just naively hoping Russia gives up or somehow collapses. Jumping over the escalation hurdle is what Ukraine did in the Kursk offensive but its too little too late. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:50:19 AM EDT
[Last Edit: DK-Prof]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: ... The 5500-page epic Ukraine thread was intentionally killed by mods/staff 100% in an attempt to shield Trump and a handful of Republicans from discussion/criticism over the aid issue. Whatever you want to believe is fine. Makes no difference to me. But in case you are actually interested in facts rather than an invented conspiracy theory about mods/staff .... I can tell you that you are 100% incorrect. Mods/staff themselves don't give a shit what is being discussed, or who wants to post what. We ended up spending lots of time and effort (which we would much rather NOT have been spending) trying to keep the thread "on track" and focused on events in the war, because it was our impression that's what most of the participants and contributors in the thread wanted. Of course it started changing over time (as you noted), and that was because the election started looming closer, and so mods got more aggressive in trying to avoid the thread being derailed by political/election-related stuff, because some people tend to feel really strongly about Trump (whether pro or con) and allowing political/election discussion seemed risky because it would almost certainly devolve into arguing about Trump. Again, the escalation in moderation was because of what we believed people wanted, not because of some mod/staff desire or secret motive. Honestly, if any theory involves mods/staff deliberately creating tons of annoying work for themselves, then that theory is wrong.  Mods/staff are volunteers with limited time, and would have liked nothing more than to NOT have to constantly babysit that thread.If your theory were correct, mods would be doing the same thing in this thread. They are not, and have no interest in doing so. If your theory were correct, mods would not have agreed to stop aggressively moderating the old thread. They did. Your theory about mod/staff motives is demonstrably wrong. Like I said, you can believe what you want. It makes zero difference to me. I am just telling you what the actual facts are. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:51:09 AM EDT
[#30]
 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:53:04 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: I shared this option two years ago in the original Ukraine thread and it was not well received. Think of Russia as Chinas proxy. China is the puppet master. Russia is soaking up the west’s inventory of munitions and equipment. Russia with the help of China Iran and others is causing the west to burn up its ads such as the patriot interceptor. Through Russia the west has burned through most of its stockpiles. Russia is the perfect country to use in this endeavor. Its population can handle huge loses and Russia had a huge stockpile of munitions and equipment to throw into this. Every time the West supplies Ukraine more at this point Russia’s allies just help more which they easily can do and it causes the west to burn through more munitions. In 2022 the west should have went all in on helping Ukraine. Now you throw in October 7th and the Houthis, the US is expending even more munitions. This is all a wet dream for China and they had a hand in all of this. Next up full scale war in the Middle East, then China makes it move in the West Pacific. Edit: India has also decided to ignore the west and is doing business with Russia. They are even working with Russia to set up factories in India. Ukraine is probably not soaking up US stockpiles critical for a large war with China based on what we have sent. Although I seriously doubt the US has enough to begin with. Maybe more importantly, Ukraine is soaking up American willingness to get involved in foreign wars and or our limited "give a fuck" bandwidth. China will benefit. In 2022, the US could have gotten the disired outcome (stopping Russia cold, maybe pushing them back, and convincing them to stop trying and negotiate) just by sending our spare M1 Abrams and Bradleys etc rotting in desert storage. In 2023 we needed to send Patriots, HIMARS and eventually ATACMS. Now, in 2024, we need to send all our spare Patriots, PGM's etc. and it is far too little. Next, along the escalation management ladder, we will need to send actual US jets (not Norwegian junk) and then after that US ground troops. This whole fucking mess is a textbook example for turning a border war into a regional conflict and possibly global war through escalation management. FJB!!! |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 8:55:49 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#32]
~2 min vid in tweet. Posted 8 hrs ago.
Reported a few hrs ago. we should keep tagging in on this area. things will be interesting for sure. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:00:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: doc540]
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I'm sure this is SOP for managing escalation but it guarantees the opposite. Giving the enemy time gives him options. Russia has found those options in China, N. Korea, Iran and who knows where else. Had the US given maximum effort (sending 3%) in 2022 (or before) could likely have helped Ukraine push them out far enough and beaten bad enough that both sides felt it was a good time to stop the fucking war. Instead, at every turn, Russia received the message that pushing a just a little more, a little harder, will get the desired result. My LEO analogy is controlling a suspect and detaining him/her early in the contact .vs allowing them freedom to roam around, dig under the front seat, open the trunk, etc. and creating a situation where YOU MUST use lethal force. If you MUST fight or oppose someone, do it at max effort because they will see hesitation as weakness NOT as escalation management and they will try you. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Jaehaerys: Since you're here, am I correct in my assumption that the west's actions to limit Ukrainian long range strike capability are at least partially motivated by concerns about Russia achieving more assistance from Iran and China? I also suspect part of it is has been to maintain some escalatory tools in response to Russian action elsewhere, such as arming the Houthis or Hezbollah. Is there at least some truth to that, that you can disclose on an open forum? I'm sure this is SOP for managing escalation but it guarantees the opposite. Giving the enemy time gives him options. Russia has found those options in China, N. Korea, Iran and who knows where else. Had the US given maximum effort (sending 3%) in 2022 (or before) could likely have helped Ukraine push them out far enough and beaten bad enough that both sides felt it was a good time to stop the fucking war. Instead, at every turn, Russia received the message that pushing a just a little more, a little harder, will get the desired result. My LEO analogy is controlling a suspect and detaining him/her early in the contact .vs allowing them freedom to roam around, dig under the front seat, open the trunk, etc. and creating a situation where YOU MUST use lethal force. If you MUST fight or oppose someone, do it at max effort because they will see hesitation as weakness NOT as escalation management and they will try you. And if you're secretly benefitting from the meth dealer's enterprise or you are protecting the top of the chain money men you just make a show of your efforts from the moment you hit your lights. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:11:02 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: They are literally pulling it off right now. With that said Armenia and Georgia could both be steamrolled by Russia and Iran at any time. I'm also not sure why you think the Turkmen would be agnostic, they are literally aligning with both China and Russia right now. Even so, this European conflict tangent is irrelevant and had absolutely nothing to do with the discussion until you shoehorned it in. Our problems with China/Korea/Iran have little to nothing to do with taking Europe. Their goal is to marginalize the west by closing off and controlling Asia and the middle east. Running Europe dry of all functional military capability is just a means to secure that end. Russia is fighting Ukraine, not NATO. There is almost zero chance they will engage NATO at any point in the future minus actual WW3. I've been nodding along with you posts up to that. The goal of the axis is to remove the west as the leading power in the world. They want NATO broken. This in why I believe that after Russia stabilizes what it takes in Ukraine they will take the Baltics. That's a MUCH smaller target with MUCH less military defense compared to Ukraine. If the US is occupied in east Asia, there's a high likelihood that we won't spare force for Europe. Western Europe lacks the ability to fight a major ground war on their own. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:13:41 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: Great, informative and non shit flinging posts here guys. Thanks Yes. Good intelligent and unemotional debate over strategic aid to Ukraine and how it relates to Russian/US stockpiles. Keep up the good work. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:14:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#36]
Lots of world leaders and sr people in Kyiv today.
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:17:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I've been nodding along with you posts up to that. The goal of the axis is to remove the west as the leading power in the world. They want NATO broken. This in why I believe that after Russia stabilizes what it takes in Ukraine they will take the Baltics. That's a MUCH smaller target with MUCH less military defense compared to Ukraine. If the US is occupied in east Asia, there's a high likelihood that we won't spare force for Europe. Western Europe lacks the ability to fight a major ground war on their own. I agree, however Russian engagement of a NATO country is pretty much exclusively limited to a world war 3 scenario where the US is otherwise engaged. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:22:58 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: Lots of world leaders and sr people in Kyiv today. Any stated reason why? CMOS |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:28:23 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: Whatever you want to believe is fine. Makes no difference to me. But in case you are actually interested in facts rather than an invented conspiracy theory about mods/staff .... I can tell you that you are 100% incorrect. Mods/staff themselves don't give a shit what is being discussed, or who wants to post what. We ended up spending lots of time and effort (which we would much rather NOT have been spending) trying to keep the thread "on track" and focused on events in the war, because it was our impression that's what most of the participants and contributors in the thread wanted. Of course it started changing over time (as you noted), and that was because the election started looming closer, and so mods got more aggressive in trying to avoid the thread being derailed by political/election-related stuff, because some people tend to feel really strongly about Trump (whether pro or con) and allowing political/election discussion seemed risky because it would almost certainly devolve into arguing about Trump. Again, the escalation in moderation was because of what we believed people wanted, not because of some mod/staff desire or secret motive. Honestly, if any theory involves mods/staff deliberately creating tons of annoying work for themselves, then that theory is wrong. Mods/staff are volunteers with limited time, and would have liked nothing more than to NOT have to constantly babysit that thread.If your theory were correct, mods would be doing the same thing in this thread. They are not, and have no interest in doing so. If your theory were correct, mods would not have agreed to stop aggressively moderating the old thread. They did. Your theory about mod/staff motives is demonstrably wrong. Like I said, you can believe what you want. It makes zero difference to me. I am just telling you what the actual facts are. That may be your opinion of the intent, but that's not how it was applied. The interpretation of what was 'off-topic' was wildly extreme, and highly inconsistent. That's indisputable to anyone who was there. And it went on long after that kind of thing was brought up as a problem and requests for help were made. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:29:17 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CMOS: Any stated reason why? CMOS Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CMOS: Originally Posted By HIPPO: Lots of world leaders and sr people in Kyiv today. Any stated reason why? CMOS Most likely related to the allowance of US long range weapons to hit Russian territory and regarding the Iranian supply of short range missiles to Russia for strikes. |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:30:50 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jaehaerys: I think that, realistically speaking, a true world war entailing Iran, North Korea, and China all going hot at once is going to also entail nuclear usage. Quite a bit of it, in fact. At that point, I think discussions regarding things like supply of GMLRS and 155mm are going to be irrelevant. I've argued for going on a decade at this point that the vision of all out conflict between nuclear armed great powers that somehow doesn't involve nuclear use is pure fantasy. This is also why most of the wars the US military has actually fought since WW2 have been small wars. Nope. China cannot survive a nuclear exchange. They are so densely populated that only 20 hits would take out almost half of their population (500M). |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:31:18 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Ukraine is probably not soaking up US stockpiles critical for a large war with China based on what we have sent. Although I seriously doubt the US has enough to begin with. Maybe more importantly, Ukraine is soaking up American willingness to get involved in foreign wars and or our limited "give a fuck" bandwidth. China will benefit. In 2022, the US could have gotten the disired outcome (stopping Russia cold, maybe pushing them back, and convincing them to stop trying and negotiate) just by sending our spare M1 Abrams and Bradleys etc rotting in desert storage. In 2023 we needed to send Patriots, HIMARS and eventually ATACMS. Now, in 2024, we need to send all our spare Patriots, PGM's etc. and it is far too little. Next, along the escalation management ladder, we will need to send actual US jets (not Norwegian junk) and then after that US ground troops. This whole fucking mess is a textbook example for turning a border war into a regional conflict and possibly global war through escalation management. FJB!!! We lack sufficient missile defense for our own facilities, specifically Guam. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:42:15 AM EDT
[#43]
Shouvalov
There is so much talk about the army lying. Just talk, without the slightest understanding of the essence of the matter. Let me explain to you a little why I look at this whole "fight against lies in the army" as useless snot. How many enemy weapon mock-ups have we officially destroyed? A simple question, to which I know the answer. And those who know the army also know the answer. Because not a single report has ever mentioned and has never had a single case of our missiles, shells and drones hitting special mock-ups instead of combat equipment. Because not a single conventional major would (or would not) transmit such a report to a conventional lieutenant colonel. Because if there is a "lone truth-teller", he will end up in the first or second year of military school. Any combat officer knows that it is impossible to conduct combat firing - and not hit anywhere, not hit the established standard of enemy manpower and equipment. Even if a live shot is fired at a moss planting in the deep taiga (but this will not be an exercise, but rather live firing) - be kind enough to report on the number of enemy infantry and combat equipment hit. There is no other way in the army and there never was, and if he "missed" the reports, then such a commander quickly leaves our cheerful competition. There cannot be a combat officer who does not provide for the fire damage to enemy forces and assets recorded on paper in reports. Even if the enemy holds his bridgehead with the help of drones and remote continuous mining, and on the bridgehead itself, due to the nature of the combat operations, there simply is not (which is logical) the required number of enemy forces and assets - report that everything has been done. That's how the system works. Not from below or from above, but in all directions with an even degree of lubrication. And if you are given an order that neither your salary, nor your rank, nor your position allow you to describe correctly, then you are a military man, you are obliged to respond in a military manner. Orders are carried out, not discussed. And there are only two big options left: to put in enough HP to show how hard you tried, or to give the necessary reports. And there are situational options "between these two". If there is an order from above that white is black, and green is gray, then so be it. From the first year of training to general positions in the General Staff, the entire system is geared precisely to this. And you are either part of this system, or the system has everything to bring you to the level of a cleared up misunderstanding. Someone who has not been through the army will never understand this, and someone who has will never correct it. Can this be corrected? As one of my acquaintances, a colonel "from another department", recently said, the issue is not about salary. Here, even generals are relatively small people in certain matters. And even very big generals can also turn out to be very small against the system. Is it possible to build a new one without breaking the old one, if the old one cannot be corrected? The issue is not about salary. You can make mistakes, but you can't lie. And what is written in reports and orders cannot be a lie. https://t.me/shouvalov/218 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:44:00 AM EDT
[#44]
 This is my current draft of what's happening in Kursk, based on Russian and Ukrainian reports. Orange area is confirmed, red is reported/claimed. Arrows are yellow because of contrast. We'll come back to this as the situation develops. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:44:49 AM EDT
[#45]
Friends, I am often asked to write more about Igor, his life in the colony and, most importantly, about his thoughts on certain events. Unfortunately, my communication with him is very difficult. I receive his letters extremely rarely and my letters almost never reach him, or they reach him with a long delay.
But here, for example, is a fragment of a letter from Igor Strelkov to one of his supporters. It is clear from it why his responses, unfortunately, are so rare: Everything is unchanged for me - communication with my family is cut off (from August 28 to this day), there are not even offers to go to the front (the military registration and enlistment office representative diligently avoids me), work and study are monotonous and meaningless. … And so - "I steadfastly endure hardships and deprivations" - it has been worse. And from the letter that finally reached me: Quite a few people here "delighted" me with messages that the Internet is reporting that I allegedly "signed a contract" for war. Deny this officially: report that I contacted the military registration and enlistment office representatives who visit the penal colony, but was twice refused even to accept my application. Once - with the justification "we don't need colonels" - they didn't even mention the article as a reason for the refusal. So far, nothing has changed in this regard. I wrote you a question about a date. - I haven't received an answer yet. Your husband, Igor. https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/1262 |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:46:29 AM EDT
[#46]
Not a geologist, but would Israel need to get all the way to the nuclear bunker? Would an attack on the entrances or even a penetrating bomb halfway to the bunker be enough shockwave to collapse the tunnels?
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:48:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Most likely related to the allowance of US long range weapons to hit Russian territory and regarding the Iranian supply of short range missiles to Russia for strikes. I think that there are some world leaders who are more aggressive than the current party line and are playing for keeps. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:56:02 AM EDT
[#48]
 Over 525 geolocations in the Kursk region since August 6, some by us, others by OSINT (with attribution on the map and backlink) Every new Sentinel 2LA pass is scrubbed by our team for new airstrike craters https://google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1z8gA8JdncNKT4uSkbmnVvB9yrbyBDNg&hl=en_US&ll=51.36174040898093%2C35.324975843584575&z=14 On the subject of: the VKS carried out an airstrike on Kamyshevka between 8 and 10 September - there is a new crater on the western edge of the village There are also new artillery scars near Naydenov, Kamyshevka, Kamyshovka, Shaposhnikovo, Semenovka, and on the southeastern edge of Sheptukhovka Something is brewing in this area We didn't update the map, but we believe that Kamyshevka is under Ukrainian control |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 9:58:00 AM EDT
[#49]
   
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:01:31 AM EDT
[#50]
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