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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:02:57 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jwnc: Not a geologist, but would Israel need to get all the way to the nuclear bunker? Would an attack on the entrances or even a penetrating bomb halfway to the bunker be enough shockwave to collapse the tunnels? This, multiple strikes around entrances and exits, cutting off power to it could effectively seal the area off from the outside world. The Israeli use of air launched ballistic missiles in April was an eye opener to some on their ability to reach long range into Iranian territory if they needed to. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:03:52 AM EDT
[#2]
 prof honeydew laughs in unintelligible language.
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:06:48 AM EDT
[#3]
As of now:
~ 3 boards of tactical aviation Kursk / BNR Ballistic strike on Bilopyllya (Sumshchyna) + the board performs a launch maneuver High activity of "Orlans" in the Kherson region https://t.me/eRadarrua/23453 ⚠ Attention! 🛫 Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction! 🚀There is a threat of using aviation means of destruction for the frontline areas! https://t.me/kpszsu/19177 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:13:36 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXMyg-nWQAAmwQe?format=png&name=small https://t.me/officer_alex33/3707 Source, and posts from earlier today. In the Kursk direction, the enemy abruptly switched from the tactics of dropping anti-aircraft guns to mechanized assaults with the use of a large number of equipment. A few days ago, I wrote about the fact that the podars are just throwing air bombs and FPV drones at everything, but now the situation has changed - the enemy was able to accumulate and transport equipment for the offensive. In this situation, the emphasis should be placed not on any successes of the enemy (about which nothing is known yet), but on a sharp change in the nature of hostilities. I will tell you about the specific results later, all my guys are working. https://t.me/officer_alex33/3704 No matter what, Iranian missiles are an increase in the number of missile strikes along the border in Sumy and Kharkiv regions + front-line areas. To what I am leading, gentlemen commanders, this is an extra reason for you to think 1000 times before giving a stupid order or neglecting your duties in the immediate vicinity of the LBZ or the state border. Perhaps one of you is still lining up personnel in the area of hostilities or neglects the masking of equipment or its movement, command posts, etc. The enemy has more opportunities and he will definitely use them. https://t.me/officer_alex33/3705 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:27:07 AM EDT
[#5]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:31:12 AM EDT
[#6]
 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:34:47 AM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:38:24 AM EDT
[#8]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:40:06 AM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:47:51 AM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:50:09 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This, multiple strikes around entrances and exits, cutting off power to it could effectively seal the area off from the outside world. The Israeli use of air launched ballistic missiles in April was an eye opener to some on their ability to reach long range into Iranian territory if they needed to. All that has previously been mentioned in Israeli media with the conclusion that it only temporarily delays Iran not ends Iran’s program |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:53:09 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jwnc: Not a geologist, but would Israel need to get all the way to the nuclear bunker? Would an attack on the entrances or even a penetrating bomb halfway to the bunker be enough shockwave to collapse the tunnels? The goal of Israel is to end the nuclear program, at best that delays it, if Israel was able to conduct that kind of operation and believed that juice was worth the squeeze they would have already done it |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 10:54:26 AM EDT
[#13]
Kursk Region
Against the backdrop of our successes, the enemy began an attack on our positions in the Glushkovsky district near the border in the morning, the enemy is being actively supported by artillery. The attacks are currently continuing. Two majors https://t.me/dva_majors/52265  https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1833880833767129120 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:05:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Ukraine is probably not soaking up US stockpiles critical for a large war with China based on what we have sent. Although I seriously doubt the US has enough to begin with. Maybe more importantly, Ukraine is soaking up American willingness to get involved in foreign wars and or our limited "give a fuck" bandwidth. China will benefit. In 2022, the US could have gotten the disired outcome (stopping Russia cold, maybe pushing them back, and convincing them to stop trying and negotiate) just by sending our spare M1 Abrams and Bradleys etc rotting in desert storage. In 2023 we needed to send Patriots, HIMARS and eventually ATACMS. Now, in 2024, we need to send all our spare Patriots, PGM's etc. and it is far too little. Next, along the escalation management ladder, we will need to send actual US jets (not Norwegian junk) and then after that US ground troops. This whole fucking mess is a textbook example for turning a border war into a regional conflict and possibly global war through escalation management. FJB!!! US really can’t spare air defense assets, there’s some equipment we can provide that might cost money to transfer but wouldn’t impact us severely if we became involved in a major war but air defense is certainly not that. But Ukraine needs air defense. This is the pickle amd why Europe better use this window to pick up the pace on production. To me I picture it as needing a pez dispenser scale of production output rather than a 15% increase or even a 50% increase compared to 2022 rates. So when I hear X country is doing X my barometer is how does that compare to a pez dispenser. I’m talking Simpsons Duff brewery mass production. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:12:06 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: Not really. Best Korea has been procuring and designing it's forces for the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy since at least 2016 in public. The moment Fat Kim does something? in the words of a South Korean official: And South Korea actually does have the munitions stockpiles in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, etc to make a good go of all the regime locations in Pyongyang to make that come true -- South Korea isn't the weak 1980s/1990s country that can only produce K1s with help from GDLS anymore. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/south-koreas-impressive-force-of-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles/ (snip long list of South Korean tech) China can EASILY tip the scales by putting their thumb on the scale. Seoul acknowledges this. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:14:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: DK-Prof]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: That may be your opinion of the intent, but that's not how it was applied. The interpretation of what was 'off-topic' was wildly extreme, and highly inconsistent. That's indisputable to anyone who was there. And it went on long after that kind of thing was brought up as a problem and requests for help were made. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By DK-Prof: Whatever you want to believe is fine. Makes no difference to me. But in case you are actually interested in facts rather than an invented conspiracy theory about mods/staff .... I can tell you that you are 100% incorrect. Mods/staff themselves don't give a shit what is being discussed, or who wants to post what. We ended up spending lots of time and effort (which we would much rather NOT have been spending) trying to keep the thread "on track" and focused on events in the war, because it was our impression that's what most of the participants and contributors in the thread wanted. Of course it started changing over time (as you noted), and that was because the election started looming closer, and so mods got more aggressive in trying to avoid the thread being derailed by political/election-related stuff, because some people tend to feel really strongly about Trump (whether pro or con) and allowing political/election discussion seemed risky because it would almost certainly devolve into arguing about Trump. Again, the escalation in moderation was because of what we believed people wanted, not because of some mod/staff desire or secret motive. Honestly, if any theory involves mods/staff deliberately creating tons of annoying work for themselves, then that theory is wrong.  Mods/staff are volunteers with limited time, and would have liked nothing more than to NOT have to constantly babysit that thread.If your theory were correct, mods would be doing the same thing in this thread. They are not, and have no interest in doing so. If your theory were correct, mods would not have agreed to stop aggressively moderating the old thread. They did. Your theory about mod/staff motives is demonstrably wrong. Like I said, you can believe what you want. It makes zero difference to me. I am just telling you what the actual facts are. That may be your opinion of the intent, but that's not how it was applied. The interpretation of what was 'off-topic' was wildly extreme, and highly inconsistent. That's indisputable to anyone who was there. And it went on long after that kind of thing was brought up as a problem and requests for help were made. I'm not stating an opinion (or theory) of why the moderation was aggressive. That's what the guy I was responding to did. I am explaining the facts of WHY the thread was moderated so aggressively, largely in response to the absurd claim that somehow mods/staff wanted to kill the thread in order to protect Trump or something like that. I absolutely understand that some posters found the moderation to be TOO restrictive and/or aggressive, and that is obviously why we have this thread instead now. Again, the mods were merely doing what they believed the majority of people who were reading and contributing to the thread wanted them to do. My post above was about the motives and intent of the mods and staff, in response to the claim that they had some ulterior motive/conspiracy to kill the thread. The question of how that intent was implemented, and whether it could have been done differently, is a completely different question. At a certain point, now it is just water under the bridge, because everyone seems to have moved onto this thread. If people like this better, despite the occasional detours into politics, and the few pro-Russian trolls who continually shit in the thread - then that's a fantastic win-win, because now the mods don't have to deal with the onerous and thankless task of trying to keep a thread like this on track and free of distractions. So most people seem to be happier now with this solution, and the mods are definitely happier.  |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:21:01 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: I'm not stating an opinion (or theory) of why the moderation was aggressive. That's what the guy I was responding to did. I am explaining the facts of WHY the thread was moderated so aggressively, largely in response to the absurd claim that somehow mods/staff wanted to kill the thread in order to protect Trump or something like that. I absolutely understand that some posters found the moderation to be TOO restrictive and/or aggressive, and that is obviously why we have this thread instead now. Again, the mods were merely doing what they believed the majority of people who were reading and contributing to the thread wanted them to do. My post above was about the motives and intent of the mods and staff, in response to the claim that they had some ulterior motive/conspiracy to kill the thread. The question of how that intent was implemented, and whether it could have been done differently, is a completely different question. At a certain point, now it is just water under the bridge, because everyone seems to have moved onto this thread. If people like this better, despite the occasional detours into politics, and the few pro-Russian trolls who continually shit in the thread - then that's a fantastic win-win, because now the mods don't have to deal with the onerous and thankless task of trying to keep a thread like this on track and free of distractions. So most people seem to be happier now with this solution, and the mods are definitely happier. There is no perfect solution to keeping a thread on track, unfortunately. The only thing that works is to firehose it with news, which minimizes the reward for trolling. And that has its own costs. Of course, per my personal philosophy to internet information, that's just my stupid opinion. 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:21:10 AM EDT
[#18]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:21:24 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: China can EASILY tip the scales by putting their thumb on the scale. Seoul acknowledges this. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Originally Posted By MKSheppard: Not really. Best Korea has been procuring and designing it's forces for the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy since at least 2016 in public. The moment Fat Kim does something? in the words of a South Korean official: And South Korea actually does have the munitions stockpiles in cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, etc to make a good go of all the regime locations in Pyongyang to make that come true -- South Korea isn't the weak 1980s/1990s country that can only produce K1s with help from GDLS anymore. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/south-koreas-impressive-force-of-cruise-and-ballistic-missiles/ (snip long list of South Korean tech) China can EASILY tip the scales by putting their thumb on the scale. Seoul acknowledges this. Is there an understanding that next time DPRK invades the South, it's the end for them and the Kim regime forever? DPRK is a puppet of PRC, but they do have their own agenda, and sometimes go somewhat outside the lines. But a new Korean War would really end that regime, right? I'm not an informed insider, but my expectation is that we would completely finish that war for good if it started up again, human waves of Chinese notwithstanding. My thinking is that if China wants to retain that DPRK buffer state, it's very much in their interest to make sure Kim doesn't launch on RoK. But I don't know anything. 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:22:00 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: There is no perfect solution to keeping a thread on track, unfortunately. The only thing that works is to firehose it with news, which minimizes the reward for trolling. And that has its own costs. Of course, per my personal philosophy to internet information, that's just my stupid opinion. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYOSgpEXwAY37Mq?format=jpg&name=large 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:22:43 AM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:25:05 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Is there an understanding that next time DPRK invades the South, it's the end for them and the Kim regime forever? DPRK is a puppet of PRC, but they do have their own agenda, and sometimes go somewhat outside the lines. But a new Korean War would really end that regime, right? I'm not an informed insider, but my expectation is that we would completely finish that war for good if it started up again, human waves of Chinese notwithstanding. My thinking is that if China wants to retain that DPRK buffer state, it's very much in their interest to make sure Kim doesn't launch on RoK. But I don't know anything. Officially Xhina’s position is it will honor its defense treaty with North Korea only if it’s attacked but I personally suspect if China wants a distraction for Taiwan that goes out the window and the 1990s days of USA and ROK mopping up the DPRK in 3 weeks is way in the rear view mirror. China most certainly has more than human waves as much as GD likes to think the PLA is just some version of Russia in Ukraine capabilities |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:29:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#23]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:31:47 AM EDT
[#24]
What's the deal with the dramatic drop in destroyed Russian tanks lately? Are they actually finally starting to run low, a change in tactics?
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:32:42 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DK-Prof: I'm not stating an opinion (or theory) of why the moderation was aggressive. That's what the guy I was responding to did. I am explaining the facts of WHY the thread was moderated so aggressively, largely in response to the absurd claim that somehow mods/staff wanted to kill the thread in order to protect Trump or something like that. I absolutely understand that some posters found the moderation to be TOO restrictive and/or aggressive, and that is obviously why we have this thread instead now. Again, the mods were merely doing what they believed the majority of people who were reading and contributing to the thread wanted them to do. My post above was about the motives and intent of the mods and staff, in response to the claim that they had some ulterior motive/conspiracy to kill the thread. The question of how that intent was implemented, and whether it could have been done differently, is a completely different question. At a certain point, now it is just water under the bridge, because everyone seems to have moved onto this thread. If people like this better, despite the occasional detours into politics, and the few pro-Russian trolls who continually shit in the thread - then that's a fantastic win-win, because now the mods don't have to deal with the onerous and thankless task of trying to keep a thread like this on track and free of distractions. So most people seem to be happier now with this solution, and the mods are definitely happier. Capta's TDS is not worth considering IMO. In a way, your post reveals that there was a disconnect between the intent and the implementation, which is not an uncommon thing. Bottom line, yes, water under the bridge. That was a bad scene, it's over. I'm not sure why we started rehashing in the first place, unless somebody felt a need to become defensive and relitigate an old episode. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:36:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#26]
When Japan and South Korea are Sympatico you know shits serious https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240911/p2g/00m/0in/071000c
   North Korean leader Kim orders boost to nuclear arsenal | The World  https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.amp.asp?newsIdx=382364 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:37:10 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#27]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:38:36 AM EDT
[#28]
  Lots of movement today in Kursk Russians claim to have retaken Gordeevka, Viktorovka, Byakhovo, Apanasovka, Snagost, Reported Ukrainian fighting in Volfino, Novy Put, Khomutovka, Kalinovka |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:38:51 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#29]
Edit — dbl tap
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:41:52 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXNAHfTXgAA1_ov?format=jpg&name=largehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXNAIu0W8AAWeD0?format=jpg&name=medium Lots of movement today in Kursk Russians claim to have retaken Gordeevka, Viktorovka, Byakhovo, Apanasovka, Snagost, Reported Ukrainian fighting in Volfino, Novy Put, Khomutovka, Kalinovka I finished ISW’s latest assessment but I’m going to wait for the dust to settle on this, giving it a few days |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:42:36 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXNGgGiXgAA5lxm?format=png&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXNEmtfW8AIlHj3?format=jpg&name=900x900
WARNING! The air alarm is connected with the threat of using ballistic weapons! Go to the shelters!", ▫️ Serhii Popko, head of the KMVA https://t.me/VA_Kyiv/7958 |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:50:10 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
[#32]
 Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:50:41 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#33]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:51:45 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: I finished ISW’s latest assessment but I’m going to wait for the dust to settle on this, giving it a few days Russia is counter-attacking with a flank attack on Ukraine in Russia, while Ukraine is counter-attacking the Russian counter attack on Russia's flank in Russia, while conducting a reconnaissance in force on a broader flank of Russia in Russia which could envelop the Russians counter-attacking the counter-attack. Hope that makes sense |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:52:28 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/Triggered-143.gif/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/Triggered-143.gif They’re currently playing together in the bath tub 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 11:56:47 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: for real. Russia is counter-attacking with a flank attack on Ukraine in Russia, while Ukraine is counter-attacking the Russian counter attack on Russia's flank in Russia, while conducting a reconnaissance in force on a broader flank of Russia in Russia which could envelop the Russians counter-attacking the counter-attack. Hope that makes sense The Russian side is making is sound like a black and white slam dunk. As usual I’ll wait for a down the road what really went down review. It’s like in Hollywood, everything is hyped but then what’s the reality. Even last night I’m watching a Nick Cage film in which his character is his own hype man. Not to return to reigniting politics but Trump does that too. To be fair I’ve seen major Silicon Valkey companies do it and require me to sign NDAs because of that. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:01:16 PM EDT
[#37]
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:04:31 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Officially Xhina’s position is it will honor its defense treaty with North Korea only if it’s attacked but I personally suspect if China wants a distraction for Taiwan that goes out the window and the 1990s days of USA and ROK mopping up the DPRK in 3 weeks is way in the rear view mirror. China most certainly has more than human waves as much as GD likes to think the PLA is just some version of Russia in Ukraine capabilities I've been in agreement with this as well. US can be absolutely prevented from getting militarily involved in Taiwan with China's expansive A2AD and the added feature of using the Korean peninsula as a distraction and resource/weapons soak. China would tell Kim to go big on South Korea, may even promise to send troops if there's a repeat of fall 1950. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:07:19 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: There is no perfect solution to keeping a thread on track, unfortunately. The only thing that works is to firehose it with news, which minimizes the reward for trolling. And that has its own costs. Of course, per my personal philosophy to internet information, that's just my stupid opinion. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FYOSgpEXwAY37Mq?format=jpg&name=large A meat grinder of news, if you will. "I use news and information like the Russian army uses men." -Prime, probably
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:11:33 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I've been in agreement with this as well. US can be absolutely prevented from getting militarily involved in Taiwan with China's expansive A2AD and the added feature of using the Korean peninsula as a distraction and resource/weapons soak. China would tell Kim to go big on South Korea, may even promise to send troops if there's a repeat of fall 1950. China’s massive amount of short range missiles can reach South Korea and Japan with ease, THAAD and Aegis is great amd all but China has a ridiculous amount of missiles. It’s almost {they have cyber, some Space etc} like their one truck pony panacea tool amd USAF started building up Pacific islands airfields because of this. South Korea is terrified of its economy evaporating so they’re always balancing not aggravating China but trying to maintain the peaceful status quo as North Korea gets more belligerent and China chokes the sea lanes South Korea needs for oil and trade. The South Korean public is so anxious they’re floating the idea of nuclear weapons |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:12:46 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/Triggered-143.gif/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/Triggered-143.gif https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-it-could-combine-with-china-if-they-faced-threat-2024-09-11/ |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:13:45 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/Triggered-143.gif/media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/Triggered-143.gif Yeah never mind the ChiComms and Putin lovers have had offensive missiles in the AOR for decades now. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:14:19 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: A meat grinder of news, if you will. "I use news and information like the Russian army uses men." -Prime, probably It is marginally more useful than my opinion, so I will absolutely own that. Once more into the breach.
 
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:15:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Cypher15]
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXNAHfTXgAA1_ov?format=jpg&name=largehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXNAIu0W8AAWeD0?format=jpg&name=medium Lots of movement today in Kursk Russians claim to have retaken Gordeevka, Viktorovka, Byakhovo, Apanasovka, Snagost, Reported Ukrainian fighting in Volfino, Novy Put, Khomutovka, Kalinovka |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:15:55 PM EDT
[#45]
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:18:52 PM EDT
[#46]
A SF raid into Syria is an interesting twist. |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:28:32 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: US really can’t spare air defense assets, there’s some equipment we can provide that might cost money to transfer but wouldn’t impact us severely if we became involved in a major war but air defense is certainly not that. But Ukraine needs air defense. This is the pickle amd why Europe better use this window to pick up the pace on production. To me I picture it as needing a pez dispenser scale of production output rather than a 15% increase or even a 50% increase compared to 2022 rates. So when I hear X country is doing X my barometer is how does that compare to a pez dispenser. I’m talking Simpsons Duff brewery mass production. How in the blue fu($ can a country, that bases everything off air superiority, be lacking in air defense..... |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:29:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#48]
Exclusive: The identities of Wagner mercenaries lost in a Mali ambush revealed
By Filipp Lebedev, Felix Light and Jessica Donati September 11, 2024 11:18 AM EDT Updated an hour ago LONDON/DAKAR, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Among the dozens of Wagner mercenaries presumed dead after a lethal battle with Tuareg rebels during a desert sandstorm in Mali in July were Russian war veterans who survived tours in Ukraine, Libya and Syria, according to interviews with relatives and a review of social media data. The loss of such experienced fighters exposes dangers faced by Russian mercenary forces working for military juntas, which are struggling to contain separatists and powerful offshoots of Islamic State and Al Qaeda across the arid Sahel region in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The Mali defeat raises doubts over whether Moscow, which has admitted funding Wagner and has absorbed many of its fighters into a defence ministry force, will do better than Western and U.N. troops recently expelled by the juntas, six officials and experts who work in the region said. By cross-referencing public information with online posts from relatives and fighters, speaking to seven relatives and using facial recognition software to analyse battlefield footage verified by Reuters, the news agency was able to identify 23 fighters missing in action and two others taken into Tuareg captivity after the ambush near Tinzaouaten, a town on the Algerian border. Several of the men had survived the siege of Bakhmut in Ukraine, which Wagner's late founder Yevgeny Prigozhin called a "meat grinder." Others had served in Libya, Syria and elsewhere. Some were former Russian soldiers, at least one of whom had retired after a full-length army career. Grisly footage of dead fighters has now circulated online, and some of relatives told Reuters the bodies of their husbands and sons had been abandoned in the desert. Reuters could not confirm how many of the men it identified were dead. Margarita Goncharova said her son, Vadim Evsiukov, 31, was first recruited in prisonwhere he was serving a drug-related sentence in 2022. He rose through the ranks in Ukraine to lead a platoon of 500 men, she said. After coming home, he worked as a tailor but struggled with survivor's guilt and secretly travelled to Africa in April to join his former commander, she said. "He wanted to fly to Africa many times. I discouraged him as much as I could," Goncharova said in an interview with Reuters. "I told him 'fate has given you a once-in-a-million chance. You can start your life again, you've won such a crazy lottery'." The Russian Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Wagner did not respond to requests for comment for this story. After Prigozhin died in August last year, Wagner employees were invited to join a newly created group called the Africa Corps, under the defence ministry, "to fight for justice and the interests of Russia," according to the Africa Corps channel on social-media platform Telegram. On the channel, Africa Corps says about half its personnel are former Wagner employees who it allows to use Wagner insignia. Wagner's social media channels remain active. The Russian government has not publicly commented on the Tinzaouaten battle. Mali's armed forces-led government said the defeat had no impact on its goals. The Malian Armed Forces "are committed to restoring the authority of the state throughout the country," army spokesman Colonel Major Souleymane Dembele told Reuters. Wagner has acknowledged heavy losses in the Mali ambush but gave no figure. The Malian army, which fought alongside the Russians, also did not give a toll. Tuareg rebels, who are fighting for an independent homeland, said they had killed 84 Russians and 47 Malians. Reuters could not independently establish how many were killed in battle. One video, out of more than 20 sent to Reuters by a Tuareg rebel spokesman, showed at least 47 bodies, mostly white men, in military-style uniforms lying in the desert. Reuters verified the location and date of the video. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a prominent blogger close to the Russian defence ministry, said on social media platform RuTube in August that the defeat showed Wagner fighters who arrived from Ukraine had underestimated the rebels and the Al Qaeda fighters. MISSING IN ACTION Wagner-linked Telegram accounts named two of the dead as Nikita Fedyakin, the administrator of The Grey Zone, a popular Wagner-focused Telegram channel with over half a million subscribers, and Sergei Shevchenko, who the accounts described as the unit commander. Reuters could not verify the identity of Shevchenko. Reuters separately identified 23 Wagner operators missing in Mali via relatives who posted in an official Wagner Telegram chat group, checking the names against social media accounts, publicly available data and facial recognition software. All the relatives received calls from Wagner recruiters on Aug. 6 to notify them their men were missing in action, they said in the chat group. Lyubov Bazhenova told Reuters she had no idea her son Vladimir Akimov, 25, who had briefly served in Russia's elite airborne forces as a conscript, had signed up. She was angry with Wagner for sharing no further information about his fate or the whereabouts of his body. She said letters to the prosecutor's office, defence ministry and foreign ministry had gone unanswered. Facial-recognition software was used to identify another two men captured by Tuareg fighters, based on photographs and videos of the ambush site published by Tuareg sources. The Tuareg rebels posted videos and photos of the two captives on social media. Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane, a spokesman for the rebel alliance, confirmed the men were in rebel captivity as of late August. One of the missing fighters, Alexei Kuzekmaev, 47, had no military experience, his wife Lyudmila Kuzekmaeva told Reuters. "Neither my hysterics, nor tears, nor persuasion - nothing helped. He just confronted me a month before he left home. He said 'I bought a ticket and will be leaving.'" Among the most experienced men was Alexander Lazarev, 48, a Russian army veteran who served in wars against Chechen separatists in the 1990s and 2000s, according to his wife's posts in the Wagner channel. She declined to comment. Lazarev appears in many photos on the Russian Facebook equivalent VKontakte wearing military uniform, with symbols linked to several army subdivisions. PARASTATAL MERCENARY FORCE Democratic governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger were overthrown in a series of coups since 2020 driven by anger with corrupt leaders and a near decade of failed Western efforts to fight insurgencies that have killed thousands and displaced millions. The military juntas have kicked out French and U.S. troops and U.N. peacekeepers. In Africa, Wagner emerged in Sudan in 2017 as the deniable face of Russian operations. Its enterprises soon ranged from protecting African coup leaders to gold mining and fighting jihadists. Wagner is also active in Central African Republic. It first appeared in Mali in late 2021. Wagner's fortunes rose and fell last year. In May, the group led Russia to its first significant Ukrainian battlefield victory in almost a year with the capture of Bakhmut. But after his criticism of Russian military leaders and his effort to lead a rebellion weeks after the Bakhmut victory, Prigozhin died in a fiery plane crash in August. The Kremlin has rejected as an "absolute lie" U.S. officials' claim that Putin had Prigozhin killed. Eric Whitaker, the top U.S. envoy to Burkina Faso until retiring in June, who previously served in Niger, Mali and Chad, said the Putin administration has achieved complete control over the Wagner brand in the post-Prigozhin era. "Africa Corps earns (the Russian government) hard-currency payments from host governments for its services and also gains a significant sources of revenue from gold derived from its activities in the Sahel," he said. Russian mercenary activity soared in Mali after Africa Corps was formed, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a U.S.-based crisis-monitoring group. Based on media reports and social media documenting, the data shows violent events linked to Russian mercenaries rose 81% and reported civilian fatalities rose 65% over the past year, compared to the year before Prigozhin's death. Wagner does not publish recruitment figures. Jędrzej Czerep, an analyst at Warsaw-based think tank Polish Institute of International Affairs, estimated that around 6,000 Russian mercenaries serve in Africa, while three diplomatic sources said about 1,500-2,000 were in Mali. "When Africa Corps started to promote and recruit, they were flooded with applications," said Czerep. "Being sent to one of the African missions was seen as far safer than Ukraine," he said. Tuareg spokesman Ramadane said the rebel alliance was preparing for more clashes. Further losses could eventually drive Russia out, said Tibor Nagy, the top U.S. envoy to Africa in 2019, when Wagner withdrew from northern Mozambique months after around a dozen of its men were killed during a conflict with an Islamic State affiliate. "They were out of there very quickly," said Nagy. Wagner has not publicly commented on its plans in Mali. Reporting by Fillip Lebedev in London, Felix Light in Tbilisi and Jessica Donati in Dakar; Writing by Jessica Donati; Additional reporting by Fadimata Kontao in Bamako, Anna Magdalena Lubowicka in Gdansk and Wang Jiawei; Editing by Estelle Shirbon and Frank Jack Daniel https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/wagner-lost-veteran-fighters-mali-ambush-setback-russias-africa-campaign-2024-09-11/ |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:30:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#49]
Somebody posted a tweet a bunch of pages ago that was alleged to be a Ukrainian diplomat saying they might be forced to develop nuclear weapons. I can't find any substantiation for that tweet whatsoever.
Here's some other relevant material, however. https://www.aei.org/op-eds/ukraine-needs-nuclear-weapons-after-the-russia-war-is-over/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/will-putins-invasion-spur-nuclear-proliferation/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/16/ukraine-may-seek-nuclear-weapons-if-left-out-of-nato-diplomat https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/opinion/the-brief-brace-for-nuclear-proliferation/ |
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Posted: 9/11/2024 12:32:26 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIPPO: for real. Russia is counter-attacking with a flank attack on Ukraine in Russia, while Ukraine is counter-attacking the Russian counter attack on Russia's flank in Russia, while conducting a reconnaissance in force on a broader flank of Russia in Russia which could envelop the Russians counter-attacking the counter-attack. Hope that makes sense Rope-a-dope? |
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